NPD Sales Results for July 2013 [Up2: 3DS Minimum, AC:NL, LM2/NSMBU LTDs, Xbox 360]

Jun 7, 2004
74,677
2
1,405
I've noticed you say something along these lines a couple of times in this thread to people questioning the health of the handheld industry? It seems somewhat deflecting and ignores that the 3DS is the handheld industry now essentially, or at least will be going forward, and as such looking at the numbers handhelds are quite clearly in decline.
i bring it up because the industry is in the shitter right now. it's a bad number that is leading the pack, which isn't a good sign.

Combined trailing twelve-month US handheld sales haven't been this low in over a decade and as each month passes the trajectory continues to be negative, despite successor platforms having already launched for all systems.

Conversely, despite terrible home console sales for the aged 7th gen platforms, their trailing twelve-month figure is still quite a lot higher than for the 6th gen platforms at the equivalent previous transition. Even taking the Wii out entirely, the PS3 and 360 still manage to match (and exceed) the combined equivalent PS2/XBX/GCN trailing twelve months in July 2006.

This despite their age, and despite them being at a significantly higher price than those systems.
i guess the one thing that sticks with me is that no matter what sony does, they simply can't seem to beat microsoft. when the xbox was in its fourth year, it was beating the ps2 in monthly sales frequently. it was a pretty clear precursor to what happened this generation. in the us, the last of us comes out, sells 1.2m copies, has widespread critical acclaim, and nothing changes. the ps3 is still in a firm position behind microsoft. there's no momentum or sign that things will change with this current pairing.

it's just a weird trancelike state the industry seems to be in where everything seems to be locked in.

The main difference with regard to the home console market is that unlike the last transition the Wii U is not selling like the 360 did. And frankly I think it's folly to take the Wii U's failing as indicative of the market having collapsed rather than it simply not resonating as a product well.
it doesn't have to be one or the other. the wii u is a system without games. so is the vita. usually that's hyperbole, but there have been about 10-15 games released for each platform seven months into the year. so yeah, taking the two most recent launches bombing into account requires some context, but in addition to things like the ps3 super slim not spurring sales, the 360 super slim not spurring sales, and the 3ds rising and falling with the tide, i think it's premature to say that all the problems are based just on the public not wanting failing platforms.
 
Nov 13, 2011
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i bring it up because the industry is in the shitter right now. it's a bad number that is leading the pack, which isn't a good sign.

i guess the one thing that sticks with me is that no matter what sony does, they simply can't seem to beat microsoft. when the xbox was in its fourth year, it was beating the ps2 in monthly sales frequently. it was a pretty clear precursor to what happened this generation. in the us, the last of us comes out, sells 1.2m copies, has widespread critical acclaim, and nothing changes. the ps3 is still in a firm position behind microsoft. there's no momentum or sign that things will change with this current pairing.

it's just a weird trancelike state the industry seems to be in where everything seems to be locked in.

it doesn't have to be one or the other. the wii u is a system without games. so is the vita. usually that's hyperbole, but there have been about 10-15 games released for each platform seven months into the year. so yeah, taking the two most recent launches bombing into account requires some context, but in addition to things like the ps3 super slim not spurring sales, the 360 super slim not spurring sales, and the 3ds rising and falling with the tide, i think it's premature to say that all the problems are based just on the public not wanting failing platforms.
It depends on whether one sees takes the handheld and home console industries as a singular entity or two distinct entities (alongside other parallel and distinct industries, like PC and mobile), with their own distinct problems to face.

The handheld industry is showing continued declines despite having undergone a full cycle refresh; sales have essentially consolidated onto one platform and even then that platform isn't managing to experience much if any growth.

The home console industry is holding up relative to the past despite age, price and despite a much needed cycle refresh having yet to occur for two platforms.

Is the industry in the shitter as a whole? Is the home console industry as a standalone entity in the shitter? I think it's too early to say, since as noted above we've yet to have a full refresh. But the handheld industry? We've had the hardware refresh, and it didn't work to stem decline. And there's an obvious culprit substitute that is seemingly not only luring away all of the expanded audience that was brought in this last generation, but likely traditional target markets as well. I'm just not sure what particular event is supposed to change the current trajectory in any substantial manner.

I really don't think The Last of Us or any particular piece of software is going to significantly change the PS3 and 360 landscape in the US. The PS3's fate was essentially sealed years ago, pre-$299. At a certain point a bandwagon effect occurs, and that was likely even more pronounced and will probably be more pronounced going forward as online gaming has become increasingly prevalent.

I don't see why the PS3 or 360 Super Slims were expected to do anything to sales, and I wouldn't really read anything into either of them failing to, the latter was the same price and the former was actually a price increase. The $200 PS3 should do something but even then, it's still historically expensive for such an aged machine.
 
I see it often here, it's also taken for granted that the Wii U will outsell the Gamecube because people think that the franchises have been expanded by the Wii users so sales will explode once those titles hit. It's insane.
It's only that high because the user base is high and the Mario brand is a household name I say. What would grandmas and soccermom buy after Wii Fit? How about something they actually heard of when before the Wii, the Mario brand.
 
Oct 24, 2012
980
0
0
Sweden
i guess the one thing that sticks with me is that no matter what sony does, they simply can't seem to beat microsoft. when the xbox was in its fourth year, it was beating the ps2 in monthly sales frequently. it was a pretty clear precursor to what happened this generation. in the us, the last of us comes out, sells 1.2m copies, has widespread critical acclaim, and nothing changes. the ps3 is still in a firm position behind microsoft. there's no momentum or sign that things will change with this current pairing.
Maybe people are saving up for the PS4? It's less than 100 days away!! Not saying Microsoft isn't in a good position in the US - they obviously are - but i don't think late sales of current gen consoles are indicative of next gen sales.The people who bought the 360 in July are not the same people who will buy next gen consoles this fall.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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It depends on whether one sees takes the handheld and home console industries as a singular entity or two distinct entities (alongside other parallel and distinct industries, like PC and mobile), with their own distinct problems to face.

The handheld industry is showing continued declines despite having undergone a full cycle refresh; sales have essentially consolidated onto one platform and even then that platform isn't managing to experience much if any growth.

The home console industry is holding up relative to the past despite age, price and despite a much needed cycle refresh having yet to occur for two platforms.

Is the industry in the shitter as a whole? Is the home console industry as a standalone entity in the shitter? I think it's too early to say, since as noted above we've yet to have a full refresh. But the handheld industry? We've had the hardware refresh, and it didn't work to stem decline. And there's an obvious culprit substitute that is seemingly not only luring away all of the expanded audience that was brought in this last generation, but likely traditional target markets as well.

I really don't think The Last of Us or any particular piece of software is going to significantly change the PS3 and 360 landscape in the US. The PS3's fate was essentially sealed years ago, pre-$299. At a certain point a bandwagon effect occurs, and that was likely even more pronounced and will probably be more pronounced going forward as online gaming has become increasingly prevalent.

I don't see why the PS3 or 360 Super Slims were expected to do anything to sales, and I wouldn't really read anything into either of them failing to, the latter was the same price and the former was actually a price increase. The $200 PS3 should do something but even then, it's still historically expensive for such an aged machine.
generally, i feel that if you're going to start looking outside the traditional industry for video games, you're not going to stop. how likely are you to buy a $500 device to play one game when you could spend less than that and get many more? how does that play into eventually desiring home consoles and $60 games?

where i think microsoft, nintendo, and sony really failed was having their systems reach these lows. price drops should have happened more often to keep people in the habit of buying consoles kinda like how people got in the habit of buying phones and tablets on a regular basis. there should have been more shakeups in recent years in terms of competition. now the old, traditional early adopter market is ready to buy in. what happens after that? how soon will it all settle again?
 
Jun 7, 2004
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The fact that it isn't actually doing that much better is profoundly depressing.
there were only about 10 games on the vita this year. if sony had dropped the price of the machine and given it some games of their own between only god knows what and tearaway, the system would probably be doing better now. instead it seems they're fine with letting it struggle, if their forecast is any indication.

could you imagine if the last of us was a vita exclusive? or gran turismo 6?
 
Dec 8, 2008
35,663
33
725
England
there were only about 10 games on the vita this year. if sony had dropped the price of the machine and given it some games of their own between only god knows what and tearaway, the system would probably be doing better now. instead it seems they're fine with letting it struggle, if their forecast is any indication.

could you imagine if the last of us was a vita exclusive? or gran turismo 6?
Ouya though dude. Ouya. They shouldn't be within 50,000 units of each other.

I can imagine a world where Sony took the Vita seriously, and it makes me weep. I don't think I've ever owned a device with as much unrealised potential.
 
generally, i feel that if you're going to start looking outside the traditional industry for video games, you're not going to stop. how likely are you to buy a $500 device to play one game when you could spend less than that and get many more? how does that play into eventually desiring home consoles and $60 games?

where i think microsoft, nintendo, and sony really failed was having their systems reach these lows. price drops should have happened more often to keep people in the habit of buying consoles kinda like how people got in the habit of buying phones and tablets on a regular basis. there should have been more shakeups in recent years in terms of competition. now the old, traditional early adopter market is ready to buy in. what happens after that? how soon will it all settle again?
That's the real question.

GAF is overly positive about the prospects of PS4 (Don't know about Xbone, it will perform well enough in the US) and yes, pre-orders are good, but I don't know; I just feel that the overall buzz for new systems is pretty low. I wouldn't be surpised if sales slumped towards 90k - 70k a month after january. It won't reach Wii U depths, but I suspect surprising figures overall.
 
May 4, 2005
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www.gaming-universe.de
there were only about 10 games on the vita this year. if sony had dropped the price of the machine and given it some games of their own between only god knows what and tearaway, the system would probably be doing better now. instead it seems they're fine with letting it struggle, if their forecast is any indication.

could you imagine if the last of us was a vita exclusive? or gran turismo 6?
Even if there were day-and-date (good quality) ports the Vita could very well fare better. Those wouldn't be exclusives, but somehow Sony doesn't want that - although I'd hope that selling more Vitas should be a lot more important to them than selling more PS3s.
 
Nov 30, 2011
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Sweden
That's the real question.

GAF is overly positive about the prospects of PS4 (Don't know about Xbone, it will perform well enough in the US) and yes, pre-orders are good, but I don't know; I just feel that the overall buzz for new systems is pretty low. I wouldn't be surpised if sales slumped towards 90k - 70k a month after january. It won't reach Wii U depths, but I suspect surprising figures overall.
I think we should never account in that pre orders are good = good sales for the next gen systems.

There are so many factors that determine how the consoles will sell. I think as you they will sell well in nov-dec but will decline very hard in January
 
May 19, 2005
12,889
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United Kingdom
Shin Megami Tensei IV did pretty okay. I'm sure the eShop bonus helped, but it also cost $50, so I'm sure Atlus is pleased with the results. IIRC Nocturne did ~60k, so SMTIV has already surpassed that.

3DS sales back to the mediocre levels we're used to. But oh well. Vita/WiiU = lolz. PS4 and Xbox One are really needed because the NA market is looking pretty dire.
 
Apr 7, 2012
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0
0
England
Microsoft need to be finding a way to differentiate the X1 version of Minecraft from the 360. If they can, the game will sell that hardware.

I also firmly believe Minecraft is what's selling the 360 right now.
 
Jul 16, 2008
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0
I can't wait until the Vita and Wii U get the Dreamcast treatment.

I loved my $30 Dreamcast and its <$5 games.
That's kind of what's keeping me from buying one at the moment, something similar happened in NZ for the Wii U (cleared out for $199 unused) and looking at the low sales it's only a matter of time before a retailer pulls something like that where I live.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Apr 23, 2010
13,053
0
730
Vita, no, no don't go to the light, your OLED doesn't like it, return to the shade.

As for WiiU, anyone done a handy dandy "this is how far it is behind Gamecube" chart again yet to drive reality in a little more for peoples 'expectations'?

Edit, oh here we are good lord:
Yes sir! Assuming WiiU sold 29k...
 
Oct 4, 2009
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GBA's numbers were stunted cause Nintendo wanted to kill it off.
If it had a normal lifespan of 5-6 years, it probably could've done DS numbers, but then I doubt DS could've done DS numbers.
GBA would had an LTD greater than 100M but in no way close to 155M as DS got.

As for WiiU, anyone done a handy dandy "this is how far it is behind Gamecube" chart again yet to drive reality in a little more for peoples 'expectations'?
Yes sir! Assuming WiiU sold 29k...
 
Jun 1, 2005
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I've noticed you say something along these lines a couple of times in this thread to people questioning the health of the handheld industry? To imply that the handheld industries woes are actually the industry as a whole's woes? Doesn't that ignore that the 3DS is the handheld industry now essentially, or at least will be going forward, once the NDS and Vita completely die out (if the latter can be considered alive now) and as such looking at the numbers handhelds are quite clearly in decline.
I look at it differently. To me (and I said this back a year or more ago, so this isn't a new theory), this is just the handheld market reverting back to form. Last gen was a crazy fluke, with Sony finally entering the handheld market, coming hot on the heels of utter domination with both the PS1 and PS2 - the common narrative was that Sony was coming to take the handheld throne from Nintendo just like they did the home console throne. There was crazy hype and expectations, and the PSP got a lot of support early on. On top of that, Nintendo hit a home run with the Touch Generation stuff that opened up a whole new market that had never existed for handhelds. Both of those freaky circumstances combined to create a freakishly large handheld market that was unrealistic for anyone to expect to repeat itself.

This generation is simply reverting back closer to the previous worldwide handheld norm. From the GB, to GBC, to GBA, Nintendo dominated the market, while other players (Lynx, Turbo Express, NeoGeo Pocket, Game Gear, Tapwave Zodiac, Wonderswan, what have you) released systems that really didn't amount to much in the end.


Combined trailing twelve-month US handheld sales haven't been this low in over a decade and as each month passes the trajectory continues to be negative, despite successor platforms having already launched for all systems.

Conversely, despite terrible home console sales for the aged 7th gen platforms, their trailing twelve-month figure is still quite a lot higher than for the 6th gen platforms at the equivalent previous transition. Even taking the Wii out entirely, the PS3 and 360 still manage to match (and exceed) the combined equivalent PS2/XBX/GCN trailing twelve months in July 2006.
Or you could look at trailing 4-month numbers instead, showing that PS3/360/Wii is about 20% down from PS2/GC/XBox in 2006, or that the PS3/360 is down more than 25% from the PS2/GCN (removing Wii/XBX since their successors were already on the market)

Or if you want to stick with trailing 12-month totals, the PS3/360/Wii is down 35% from a year prior, whereas PS2/GC/XBox was down 32% from the year prior. Or if you want to pull the Wii and XBX out of the figures, since they both had their successors on the market already --- then for 12-month rolling figures, the PS3/360 is down 28% from the year prior, whereas the PS2/GCN was only down 16% from the year prior --- and that is with the 360 on the market back then, which was performing much better than the WiiU is today.

You can use the numbers to justify whatever position you want in this case. But the dropoff at the time (2006) was more stable, and much less severe than the bottom that has fallen out of the market this past year, and especially these past 4 months. Now is some of that (maybe even most of that?) due to the extended length of this generation, and the higher price points of the current systems? For sure. But that supports Anihawk's questioning of how much impact that might have moving forward. It's always a lot easier to maintain a customer base than it is to lose it and then try to recapture it again. The previous gen didn't have the same precipitous dropoff that this gen is ending on. Ani is speculating that by letting all their momentum just shrivel up and die, the new gen may find that it is more difficult to get them back again - and the prices of the new systems will be pretty similar to the start of last gen (400+500 vs 300/400+500/600) - with a generally shittier economy than 2006. I can see Ani's point that Sony/MS (it's too late for Nintendo in this particular discussion) aren't doing themselves any favours by letting things disintegrate so precipitously before finally getting their new systems on the market.
 
Oct 4, 2009
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710
I look at it differently. To me (and I said this back a year or more ago, so this isn't a new theory), this is just the handheld market reverting back to form. Last gen was a crazy fluke, with Sony finally entering the handheld market, coming hot on the heels of utter domination with both the PS1 and PS2 - the common narrative was that Sony was coming to take the handheld throne from Nintendo just like they did the home console throne. There was crazy hype and expectations, and the PSP got a lot of support early on. On top of that, Nintendo hit a home run with the Touch Generation stuff that opened up a whole new market that had never existed for handhelds. Both of those freaky circumstances combined to create a freakishly large handheld market that was unrealistic for anyone to expect to repeat itself.
Indeed.
DS+PSP have sold more than GB/GBC, Lynx, GameGear, Game.com, WonderSwan, NGP, GBA, NGage and Vita put together.

Although aside from GB/GBC and GBA (in a time span of 15 years) the rest haven't sold much.
 
Jul 18, 2005
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As some of you are talking about TTMs from quite a few years ago is there a website that has collected all this data or do you have like an excel file on the PC?
Because I'm really curious to see a lot more of those comparisons (like 2006 vs. 2013), but I don't have the data available ^^
 
Aug 18, 2010
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Why of course! The second best handheld ever. I had a PSP1000, 2000 & Go. Still have the 2000.

It got a much fairer shake of the stick than its bigger brother :(
The Vita necessitates a much bigger investment in both time and money when it comes to the software. Sure, the shake of the stick was (was for I speak of the dead accordingly) less fair, but it was also a weightier stick -- more of a log (insert shit joke), really. As the inevitable owner of a PS4, I can't really think of a scenario in which I would welcome a quality title on the Vita that is not also on Sony's home console. For every resource spent on a Vita title isn't that something significant taken away from the PS4? Though I am not aruging that killing the Vita would somehow produce 6 more AAA IP for the PS4, but as a non-Vita owner, I'd take even 2 new AAA IP. Bend and Cambridge could be doing something interesting and significant.
 
Oct 4, 2012
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The handheld market is really dying. Nintendo pretty much has the market all to itself and it was only able to muster a pretty pathetic 140k sales. Can't believe they are actually bragging about that number.
You gotta brag when you can, who knows what tomorrow will bring. Then again, Nintendo bragged about how key software drove strong hardware sales, 0.16 million.
 
Mar 16, 2012
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Europe
the Wii U is dead, Nintendo hardcore gamers already bought one, children want tablets for Christmas not "Nintendo" anymore, casuals are looking into PS4 and, a bit less, into Xbox One, there's no argument here, major titles are not announced or even shown since the production of the unit will be stopped sometime around next year, then it would be nice to pick one for 25 bucks with Pikmin, 3 bucks TWW remake and other stuff, like the good old Dreamcast funeral times.
 
Jun 13, 2012
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I wonder how many of those Pikmin sales were for the Player's Choice version. That was a very popular line on the Gamecube.



I'm not sure video game consoles are THE gift for little kids (<12) like they were during the 90s or early 2000s. All we have is anecdote and customer surveys/polling, but it seems like iOS devices have made major in-roads to being the child gift of choice. N64 had a crazy bump during holiday 1997 because that's what kids wanted for Christmas.
Nintendo was king pre-ps1. People forget/don't know that until PS, the noun/verb people used for playing console videogames and videogames in general was Nintendo; the holy grail of branding had been reached wherein your company name becomes an actual word, just like Kleenex, Escalator, and Google. Too bad they squandered that for whatever reason.
 
May 4, 2005
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the Wii U is dead, Nintendo hardcore gamers already bought one, children want tablets for Christmas not "Nintendo" anymore, casuals are looking into PS4 and, a bit less, into Xbox One, there's no argument here, major titles are not announced or even shown since the production of the unit will be stopped sometime around next year, then it would be nice to pick one for 25 bucks with Pikmin, 3 bucks TWW remake and other stuff, like the good old Dreamcast funeral times.
Why would every Nintendo fan have a Wii U already? There are only two 'real' Nintendo games available, 2D Mario and Pikmin, so, since Nintendo is a lot broader than that there might be Nintendo fans for whom there is not a single game they need to have... I can't see Nintendo canceling the Wii U next year and selling it for 25$.
 

TechnicPuppet

Nothing! I said nothing!
May 14, 2013
4,963
0
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Scotland
the Wii U is dead, Nintendo hardcore gamers already bought one, children want tablets for Christmas not "Nintendo" anymore, casuals are looking into PS4 and, a bit less, into Xbox One, there's no argument here, major titles are not announced or even shown since the production of the unit will be stopped sometime around next year, then it would be nice to pick one for 25 bucks with Pikmin, 3 bucks TWW remake and other stuff, like the good old Dreamcast funeral times.
Casuals are looking at the PS4 and XB1?
 

Burai

shitonmychest57
Oct 19, 2006
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That's the real question.

GAF is overly positive about the prospects of PS4 (Don't know about Xbone, it will perform well enough in the US) and yes, pre-orders are good, but I don't know; I just feel that the overall buzz for new systems is pretty low. I wouldn't be surpised if sales slumped towards 90k - 70k a month after january. It won't reach Wii U depths, but I suspect surprising figures overall.
I think the next gen consoles will be fine.

We're in an unprecedented situation here. Consoles have never stayed this expensive for this long. The Xbox 360 hasn't had a real price drop since 2008. This means that anyone who wasn't able to jump in five years ago isn't any more likely to be doing so now unless they buy used.

IMO the current stagnation of the market is down to existing owners getting fatigued after 5-8 years of the same consoles, cutting back their spending as they wait for the next big thing and the sub-$200 console market still waiting to be able to afford the current gen consoles.
 
Oct 2, 2007
10,962
3
965
the Wii U is dead, Nintendo hardcore gamers already bought one, children want tablets for Christmas not "Nintendo" anymore, casuals are looking into PS4 and, a bit less, into Xbox One, there's no argument here, major titles are not announced or even shown since the production of the unit will be stopped sometime around next year, then it would be nice to pick one for 25 bucks with Pikmin, 3 bucks TWW remake and other stuff, like the good old Dreamcast funeral times.
On what planet are casuals looking into the ps4?

Sales for both systems will initially be driven by core gamers.Prices need to drop before either enter casual range
 
Jun 9, 2006
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Austin, Tx.
I think the next gen consoles will be fine.

We're in an unprecedented situation here. Consoles have never stayed this expensive for this long. The Xbox 360 hasn't had a real price drop since 2008. This means that anyone who wasn't able to jump in five years ago isn't any more likely to be doing so now unless they buy used.
.
Honestly, I'm a little shocked that MS hasn't introduced a $99 Arcade SKU. It's going to be almost 8 years for the 360 this winter and the price of the of the lowest SKU has come down only $100 over the lifetime. That's amazing to me. I think if they cut the price to 99 they could sell probably another 10 million units.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Jul 31, 2007
39,660
0
0
the Wii U is dead, Nintendo hardcore gamers already bought one, children want tablets for Christmas not "Nintendo" anymore, casuals are looking into PS4 and, a bit less, into Xbox One, there's no argument here, major titles are not announced or even shown since the production of the unit will be stopped sometime around next year, then it would be nice to pick one for 25 bucks with Pikmin, 3 bucks TWW remake and other stuff, like the good old Dreamcast funeral times.
:lol

What? Where is the logic here?
 
Nov 13, 2011
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generally, i feel that if you're going to start looking outside the traditional industry for video games, you're not going to stop. how likely are you to buy a $500 device to play one game when you could spend less than that and get many more? how does that play into eventually desiring home consoles and $60 games?

where i think microsoft, nintendo, and sony really failed was having their systems reach these lows. price drops should have happened more often to keep people in the habit of buying consoles kinda like how people got in the habit of buying phones and tablets on a regular basis. there should have been more shakeups in recent years in terms of competition. now the old, traditional early adopter market is ready to buy in. what happens after that? how soon will it all settle again?
So you're saying that because people may have begun looking to mobile instead of dedicated handhelds, they may fall down a slippery slope to no longer wanting big screen console experiences.

I just personally don't see as much overlap and substitution between the iPhone and the home console, compared to them very easily serving as a substitute for a handheld, even for the casual (not the audience the Wii brought in) market. Perhaps when FIFA, Madden and COD type games become pervasive and equivalent enough experiences on such devices.

I don't necessarily disagree that the generation has gone too long and/or that prices have remained too high, but I'm not sure I'd translate that into a definite impact on the new generation.
I look at it differently. To me (and I said this back a year or more ago, so this isn't a new theory), this is just the handheld market reverting back to form. Last gen was a crazy fluke, with Sony finally entering the handheld market, coming hot on the heels of utter domination with both the PS1 and PS2 - the common narrative was that Sony was coming to take the handheld throne from Nintendo just like they did the home console throne. There was crazy hype and expectations, and the PSP got a lot of support early on. On top of that, Nintendo hit a home run with the Touch Generation stuff that opened up a whole new market that had never existed for handhelds. Both of those freaky circumstances combined to create a freakishly large handheld market that was unrealistic for anyone to expect to repeat itself.

This generation is simply reverting back closer to the previous worldwide handheld norm. From the GB, to GBC, to GBA, Nintendo dominated the market, while other players (Lynx, Turbo Express, NeoGeo Pocket, Game Gear, Tapwave Zodiac, Wonderswan, what have you) released systems that really didn't amount to much in the end.
Except the trajectory of the handheld market is reaching and will soon decline below that "reversion to form."

The PSP and PSV will be essentially negigible going forward. The NDS is being put to pasture.

I don't have pre-GBA data, but the GBA by itself was selling 6-8M in a twelve month period. A "reversion to form" would imply the 3DS will achieve such sales, when it's currently selling more like 3.5M units in a twelve month period.
Or you could look at trailing 4-month numbers instead, showing that PS3/360/Wii is about 20% down from PS2/GC/XBox in 2006, or that the PS3/360 is down more than 25% from the PS2/GCN (removing Wii/XBX since their successors were already on the market)

Or if you want to stick with trailing 12-month totals, the PS3/360/Wii is down 35% from a year prior, whereas PS2/GC/XBox was down 32% from the year prior. Or if you want to pull the Wii and XBX out of the figures, since they both had their successors on the market already --- then for 12-month rolling figures, the PS3/360 is down 28% from the year prior, whereas the PS2/GCN was only down 16% from the year prior --- and that is with the 360 on the market back then, which was performing much better than the WiiU is today.

You can use the numbers to justify whatever position you want in this case. But the dropoff at the time (2006) was more stable, and much less severe than the bottom that has fallen out of the market this past year, and especially these past 4 months. Now is some of that (maybe even most of that?) due to the extended length of this generation, and the higher price points of the current systems? For sure. But that supports Anihawk's questioning of how much impact that might have moving forward. It's always a lot easier to maintain a customer base than it is to lose it and then try to recapture it again. The previous gen didn't have the same precipitous dropoff that this gen is ending on. Ani is speculating that by letting all their momentum just shrivel up and die, the new gen may find that it is more difficult to get them back again - and the prices of the new systems will be pretty similar to the start of last gen (400+500 vs 300/400+500/600) - with a generally shittier economy than 2006. I can see Ani's point that Sony/MS (it's too late for Nintendo in this particular discussion) aren't doing themselves any favours by letting things disintegrate so precipitously before finally getting their new systems on the market.
One can use ridiculous metrics to justify things, sure. I fail to see how a trailing twelve month cumulative total is some sort of slanted absurd metric; the whole purpose is to smooth out seasonal variation to see underlying trends.

I'm not sure why one would compare a trailing four month period, which would be rife with seasonality.

Since you bring it up:
Code:
	PS2	XBX	GCN
Jan-06	44.26%	63.07%	42.11%
Feb-06	43.90%	58.49%	42.24%
Mar-06	44.85%	63.44%	32.98%
Apr-06	38.25%	74.51%	39.68%
May-06	15.02%	79.84%	34.00%
Jun-06	12.11%	85.71%	27.14%
Jul-06	7.31%	90.98%	10.20%
			
	X360	PS3	Wii
Jan-13	16.74%	15.37%	46.67%
Feb-13	29.11%	24.86%	56.96%
Mar-13	29.65%	37.01%	48.00%
Apr-13	44.92%	40.59%	53.85%
May-13	28.75%	34.62%	49.30%
Jun-13	45.53%	43.16%	44.21%
Jul-13	47.29%	43.57%	49.28%
I would say the XBX and GCN showed relatively precipitous drops, although the GCN stemmed for some reason prior to July, despite an earlier age. The PS2 as well showed big drops, prior to an April price cut.

I fully agree with Anihawk's assertion that the prices are too high.
I'm not exactly sure on what basis that the price of entry of these systems stymieing their late generational sales translates into an impact on early generational sales of a new cycle. I don't really see how these lower late generational hardware sales amount to losing of customer base.

The people buying a 360 in July 2013 aren't really the customer base for the XB1 in 2013.

I generally disagree with the notion that these late generational home console sales contraction is indicative of a more general decline in consumer interest in home consoles as opposed to this generation having simply run too long and at too high a price. At least, I don't think such conclusion can be drawn prior to a transition has actually been completed.
 
B

bomb

Unconfirmed Member
Pachter trying to hate on the 3DS anyway he can. Black 3DSXL, Pokemon, Zelda, etc. Pachter, please.
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Apr 23, 2010
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Theres two uses of casuals in gaming. You refer to the ultra casual bejeweled, wii sports, farmville lot, OR you refer to mr madden/fifa/cod/assassins creed/batman casual.

In which case, yes, those people are looking intently at PS4's first seemingly, then Xbones.