NPD Sales Results for July 2013 [Up2: 3DS Minimum, AC:NL, LM2/NSMBU LTDs, Xbox 360]

Nov 21, 2012
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I said arguably because I don't have a list of the games released in the first ten months for both consoles. But it certainly did feel that way, The Dreamcast's first party line-up trumped NIntendo's in that time frame. Sega didn't even have EA on their side (well NIntendo doesn't really either). and they still managed to release some really solid sports games that sold really well on the machine.
Hahaha, yeah I'm just fucking with you mostly. It's impressive how Sega was able to support that box with such a varied range of content, they filled genre gaps with in house IP. That is something Nintendo is also going to need to do, plug the genre gaps in it's console catalogue.
 
Jun 1, 2005
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We're talking about the US handheld market though, and whether or not it's in decline or reverting to GBA levels. Where it frankly seems far more like the former, and software is much lower as well as far as I'm aware.
I can see that metalslimer may have been talking about the US market (and he confirmed that he was), but I certainly wasn't when I made my initial comment about the matter to you earlier in this thread.

Dalthien said:
This generation is simply reverting back closer to the previous worldwide handheld norm. From the GB, to GBC, to GBA, Nintendo dominated the market, while other players (Lynx, Turbo Express, NeoGeo Pocket, Game Gear, Tapwave Zodiac, Wonderswan, what have you) released systems that really didn't amount to much in the end.
Anyway, I just finally caught up with your initial reply back to me.

Except the trajectory of the handheld market is reaching and will soon decline below that "reversion to form."
We'll see. As of now, the 3DS+Vita is right about on par with GBA+Wonderswan+NGage at a similar point in time. Almost eerily so, in fact. The 3DS+Vita combo may fall slightly behind over the next year or two (or maybe not, with Pokemon + possible price cuts/new models -- plus anything the Vita adds over the next year or two is pretty much pure bonus, since the Wonderswan and NGage were pretty much dead by this similar point in 2003), but even if it does, the difference will be relatively small, and the 3DS should have an extra year or so to itself on the market to close up any gap that might arise. I'm actually finding it a bit odd to see you actually taking the position that the 3DS+Vita is some kind of contraction from the previous handheld norm (excluding the crazy figures from last gen) - unless you're specifically referring to the US only, in which case I'm not sure why you responded to my post, since I clearly said that I was talking about the full, worldwide handheld market.

One can use ridiculous metrics to justify things, sure. I fail to see how a trailing twelve month cumulative total is some sort of slanted absurd metric; the whole purpose is to smooth out seasonal variation to see underlying trends.

I'm not sure why one would compare a trailing four month period, which would be rife with seasonality.
Who said that a trailing twelve month cumulative total is some sort of slanted absurd metric? There's nothing at all wrong with that metric. I even used trailing twelve-month metrics in my reply to you to show that the fall-off this gen has been more severe and aggressive than the fall-off from the previous gen.

The numbers you used were perfectly valid, and your conclusion from them was reasonable. I was showing that other numbers can also be used to allow a completely different, yet still also reasonable conclusion to be drawn. The most extreme portion of the drop-off started 4 months ago - and hasn't shown any signs of letting up at all during that 4-month span. Maybe that's a seasonal fluke, as you suggested. Or maybe something really severe really did take hold 4 months ago. What if August's numbers are down 25% from 2006 as well? And September? All of a sudden, it can't be written off as a seasonal fluke, but as a prelude to a really ugly 12-month trailing total on the way.

I generally disagree with the notion that these late generational home console sales contraction is indicative of a more general decline in consumer interest in home consoles as opposed to this generation having simply run too long and at too high a price.
That's cool. As I said, that's a reasonable conclusion to draw. But I can totally see where Anihawk is coming from as well, and I pointed out some numbers that help buttress his position. That's all.
 
Nov 13, 2011
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On the matter of worldwide versus US, I missed the mention of worldwide in your earlier comment. I assumed you were talking about a reversion in the US and Western markets, NPD thread and all that. It's quite clear that handhelds are dominating the Japanese gaming industry. And while in a sense it doesn't matter where the sales come from as long as they're coming, I think that at a certain point expansion of handheld gaming in the Japanese market won't be able to counter balance the contraction of handheld gaming in Western markets that seems to be occurring due to the advent of readily available substitute devices with much cheaper gaming experiences. I could be completely wrong, maybe Pokemon will completely reverse this trend, or the Vita will find some sort of niche (lol).

On the topic of home consoles, I would say that if we don't see a reversal in cumulative home console sales after the remaining two systems release, as we haven't for the handheld market, then it's most certainly a sign of a contraction beyond simply the loss of the expanded audience the Wii brought in, and something systemic has taken hold in the market rather than simply generational length and price hindering these old consoles from selling. I fully expect a contraction from the height of this generation - there doesn't seem like there'll be anything quite like the Wii; but at present I don't really see anything in particular inhibiting the PS4 and XB1 taking home consoles back to the ~10M per annum level.

Although whether that in itself is enough is of course another question, considering increased budgets.
 
May 24, 2012
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I said arguably because I don't have a list of the games released in the first ten months for both consoles. But it certainly did feel that way, The Dreamcast's first party line-up trumped NIntendo's in that time frame. Sega didn't even have EA on their side (well NIntendo doesn't really either). and they still managed to release some really solid sports games that sold really well on the machine.
Code:
[B]DREAMCAST, NORTH AMERICAN RELEASES		WII U, NORTH AMERICAN RELEASES[/B]

[B][U]TITLE				NPD MONTH	TITLE						R. DATE		TYPE[/U][/B]
Aero Wings			Sep-99		Assassin's Creed III				11/13/2012	Hybrid
Air Force Delta			Sep-99		Batman: Arkham City - Armored Edition		11/18/2012	Hybrid
Blue Stinger			Sep-99		Ben 10: Omniverse				11/18/2012	Hybrid
Cart Flag To Flag		Sep-99		Call of Duty: Black Ops II			11/18/2012	Retail
Expendable			Sep-99		Chasing Aurora					11/18/2012	eShop
House Of The Dead 2		Sep-99		Darksiders II					11/18/2012	Hybrid
Hydro Thunder			Sep-99		Disney Epic Mickey 2: The Power of Two		11/18/2012	Hybrid
Monaco Grand Prix		Sep-99		ESPN Sports Connection				11/18/2012	Hybrid
Mortal Kombat Gold		Sep-99		FIFA Soccer 13					11/18/2012	Hybrid
Nfl 2K				Sep-99		Funky Barn					11/18/2012	Hybrid
Nfl Blitz 2000			Sep-99		Game Party Champions				11/18/2012	Hybrid
Pen Pen Trilcelon		Sep-99		Just Dance 4					11/18/2012	Hybrid
Power Stone			Sep-99		Little Inferno					11/18/2012	eShop
Ready 2 Rumble Boxing		Sep-99		Madden NFL 13					11/18/2012	Hybrid
Sonic Adventure			Sep-99		Mass Effect 3: Special Edition			11/18/2012	Retail
Soul Calibur			Sep-99		Mighty Switch Force! Hyper Drive Edition	11/18/2012	eShop
Tnn Hardcore Heat		Sep-99		Nano Assault Neo				11/18/2012	eShop
Tokyo Xtreme Racer		Sep-99		NBA 2K13					11/18/2012	Hybrid
Trickstyle			Sep-99		New Super Mario Bros. U				11/18/2012	Hybrid
King Of Fighters 1999		Oct-99		Ninja Gaiden 3: Razor's Edge			11/18/2012	Hybrid
Marvel Vs Capcom		Oct-99		Nintendo Land					11/18/2012	Hybrid
Sega Bass Fishing		Oct-99		Rabbids Land					11/18/2012	Hybrid
Speed Devils			Oct-99		Scribblenauts Unlimited				11/18/2012	Hybrid
Virtua Fighter 3Tb		Oct-99		SiNG Party					11/18/2012	Hybrid
Armada				Nov-99		Skylanders Giants				11/18/2012	Retail
Centipede			Nov-99		Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed		11/18/2012	Hybrid
Dynamite Cop			Nov-99		Tank! Tank! Tank!				11/18/2012	Hybrid
Nba 2K				Nov-99		Tekken Tag Tournament 2: Wii U Edition		11/18/2012	Hybrid
Nba Showtime: On Nbc		Nov-99		Transformers Prime: The Game			11/18/2012	Retail
Psychic Force 2012		Nov-99		Trine 2: Director's Cut				11/18/2012	eShop
Rippin' Riders			Nov-99		Warriors Orochi 3 Hyper				11/18/2012	Hybrid
Sega Rally 2			Nov-99		Wheel of Fortune				11/18/2012	Hybrid
Slave Zero			Nov-99		Wipeout 3					11/18/2012	Retail
Soul Fighter			Nov-99		Your Shape: Fitness Evolved 2013		11/18/2012	Hybrid
South Park: Chefs Shack		Nov-99		ZombiU						11/18/2012	Hybrid
Toy Commander			Nov-99		Cabela's Dangerous Hunts 2013			12/4/2012	Retail
WWE Attitude			Nov-99		Family Party: 30 Great Games Obstacle Arcade	12/4/2012	Hybrid
Elemental Gimmic Gear		Dec-99		Marvel Avengers: Battle for Earth		12/4/2012	Hybrid
Evolution			Dec-99		Rapala Pro Bass Fishing				12/4/2012	Retail
Fighting Force 2		Dec-99		Rise of the Guardians: The Video Game		12/4/2012	Hybrid
Incoming			Dec-99		007 Legends					12/11/2012	Retail
Nfl Quarterback Club 2000	Dec-99		Jeopardy!					12/14/2012	Hybrid
Re-Volt				Dec-99		The Cave					1/22/2013	eShop
Sevnth Cross Evolution		Dec-99		Puddle						1/31/2013	eShop
Shadow Man			Dec-99		Fist of the North Star: Ken's Rage 2		2/7/2013	eShop
Test Drive 6			Dec-99		Wii Street U					2/14/2013	eShop
Worms Armageddon		Dec-99		Bit.Trip Presents...Runner2			2/26/2013	eShop
Legacy of Kain: Soul Reaver	Jan-00		The Amazing Spider-Man				3/5/2013	Retail
Tee-Off				Jan-00		LEGO City: Undercover				3/18/2013	Hybrid
Wetrix				Jan-00		Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate			3/19/2013	Hybrid
Zombie Revenge			Jan-00		Need for Speed: Most Wanted U			3/19/2013	Hybrid
Crazy Taxi			Feb-00		The Croods: Prehistoric Party!			3/19/2013	Hybrid
Nhl 2K				Feb-00		The Walking Dead: Survival Instinct		3/19/2013	Retail
Wild Metal			Feb-00		ZEN Pinball 2					3/21/2013	eShop
Carrier				Mar-00		Toki Tori 2					4/4/2013	eShop
Chuchu Rocket			Mar-00		Injustice: Gods Among Us			4/16/2013	Hybrid
Dead Or Alive 2			Mar-00		Rayman Legends Challenges App			4/25/2013	eShop
Ecw: Hardcore Revolution	Mar-00		Balloon Fight					4/26/2013	eShop
Mdk 2				Mar-00		Donkey Kong Jr.					4/26/2013	eShop
Rayman 2			Mar-00		Excitebike					4/26/2013	eShop
Resident Evil: Code Veronica	Mar-00		F-Zero						4/26/2013	eShop
Roadsters			Mar-00		Ice Climber					4/26/2013	eShop
Sword Of Berserk: Guts		Mar-00		Kirby's Adventure				4/26/2013	eShop
Time Stalkers			Mar-00		Punch-Out!!					4/26/2013	eShop
Tomb Raider: Revelation		Mar-00		Super Mario World				4/26/2013	eShop
Virtua Striker 2		Mar-00		Wii U Panorama View				4/26/2013	eShop
F1 World Grand Prix		Apr-00		Kung Fu Rabbit					5/2/2013	eShop
Gundam Side Story 0079		Apr-00		Mega Man					5/2/2013	eShop
Jojo's Bizarre Venture		Apr-00		Pac-man						5/2/2013	eShop
Maken X				Apr-00		Solomon's Key					5/9/2013	eShop
Plasma Sword			Apr-00		Xevious						5/9/2013	eShop
Star Wars Episode 1: Racer	Apr-00		Super Metroid					5/15/2013	eShop
4 Wheel Thunder			May-00		Super Ghouls 'n Ghosts				5/16/2013	eShop
Grand Theft Auto 2		May-00		Super Mario Bros. 2				5/16/2013	eShop
Street Fighter Alpha 3		May-00		Fast & Furious: Showdown			5/21/2013	Retail
Striker Pro 2000		May-00		LEGO Batman 2: DC Super Heroes			5/21/2013	Hybrid
T.Clancys Rainbow Six		May-00		Resident Evil: Revelations			5/21/2013	Hybrid
Tony Hawk Pro Skater		May-00		Sniper Elite V2					5/21/2013	Retail
Arcades Greatest Hits		Jun-00		Kirby Super Star				5/23/2013	eShop
Bust A Move 4			Jun-00		Kirby's Dream Course				5/23/2013	eShop
Draconus: Cult Of Wyrm		Jun-00		Kirby's Dream Land 3				5/23/2013	eShop
Evolution 2			Jun-00		Ghosts 'n Goblins				5/30/2013	eShop
Gauntlet Legends		Jun-00		Mega Man X					5/30/2013	eShop
Industrial Spy Operation	Jun-00		Spelunker					6/6/2013	eShop
Marvel Vs. Capcom 2		Jun-00		Yoshi						6/12/2013	eShop
Mr. Driller			Jun-00		Mutant Mudds Deluxe				6/13/2013	eShop
Nightmare Creatures 2		Jun-00		New Super Luigi U				6/20/2013	eShop
Omikron: The Nomad Soul		Jun-00		Mario Bros.					6/20/2013	eShop
Silver				Jun-00		Wrecking Crew					6/20/2013	eShop
South Park Rally		Jun-00		Game & Wario					6/23/2013	Hybrid
Space Channel 5			Jun-00		Vegas Stakes					6/27/2013	eShop
Spirit Of Speed 1937		Jun-00		Pilotwings					7/4/2013	eShop
Street Fighter 3: Double	Jun-00		Metroid						7/11/2013	eShop
Super Magnetic Neo		Jun-00		Star Wars Pinball				7/11/2013	eShop
Toy Story 2			Jun-00		Donkey Kong					7/15/2013	eShop
Virtual On: Oratorio		Jun-00		Turbo: Super Stunt Squad			7/16/2013	Hybrid
Wacky Races			Jun-00		EarthBound					7/18/2013	eShop
						The Smurfs 2					7/23/2013	Hybrid
						Kid Icarus					7/25/2013	eShop
						Cloudberry Kingdom				8/1/2013	eShop
						Harvest Moon					8/1/2013	eShop
						Pikmin 3					8/4/2013	Hybrid
						Disney Planes					8/6/2013	Hybrid
						Spin the Bottle: Bumpie's Party			8/8/2013	eShop
						Romance of the Three Kingdoms IV		8/8/2013	eShop
						DuckTales: Remastered				8/13/2013	eShop
						Galaga						8/15/2013	eShop
						Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist		8/20/2013	Hybrid
Hope this helps.
 
Jun 1, 2005
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I think that at a certain point expansion of handheld gaming in the Japanese market won't be able to counter balance the contraction of handheld gaming in Western markets that seems to be occurring due to the advent of readily available substitute devices with much cheaper gaming experiences. I could be completely wrong, maybe Pokemon will completely reverse this trend, or the Vita will find some sort of niche (lol).
For next gen, that may be true. But it doesn't matter much this gen. The 3DS will continue falling behind the GBA in the US, and will continue pulling further ahead from the GBA in Japan (particularly once we get to the 2015/2005 comparison). Ultimately, I don't see much reason to believe that the 3DS won't reach the 81M that the GBA did, or especially that 3DS+Vita won't reach the ~85M that GBA+Wonderswan+NGage reached.

I fully expect a contraction from the height of this generation - there doesn't seem like there'll be anything quite like the Wii; but at present I don't really see anything in particular inhibiting the PS4 and XB1 taking home consoles back to the ~10M per annum level.

Although whether that in itself is enough is of course another question, considering increased budgets.
Hmm...just for the US? On a sustained basis? That seems to be an awfully aggressive target. As of now, the 360 is averaging 5.08M per year, and the PS3 is 3.62M per year. Combined, that's only 8.7M per year.

In fact, looking at calendar years, the PS3+360 combo only got above 10M twice (11.1M in 2010, and 11.8M in 2011) this entire generation. So you're expecting the PS4+XB1 to perform a fair bit better than the PS3+360 combo did in the US.

Edit - looking through the Wii numbers, the Wii topped 10M by itself in 2008, and did 9.6M (better than all but those 2 years I mentioned of the PS3+360 combo) by itself in 2009. Fucking crazy!
 
Nov 13, 2011
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Hmm...just for the US? On a sustained basis? That seems to be an awfully aggressive target. As of now, the 360 is averaging 5.08M per year, and the PS3 is 3.62M per year. Combined, that's only 8.7M per year.

In fact, looking at calendar years, the PS3+360 combo only got above 10M twice (11.1M in 2010, and 11.8M in 2011) this entire generation. So you're expecting the PS4+XB1 to perform a fair bit better than the PS3+360 combo did in the US.
I should note again, I'm referring to TTMs. And no, not by themselves, at least not initially. I don't think the PS4 or XB1 will reach the 10M mark alone for a while, but in combination with their predecessors I expect "Sony and Microsoft's consoles" should return from the TTM of ~7.5M it's plummeting towards back to the 10M level or higher.

I'm feeling too lazy to draw up my own graph so here's one from one of JVM's articles:

With regard to their performance alone, I would anticipate something between the PS2/XBX's more rapid rise and the stymied slope of the 7th gen HD systems. And that they will reach and surpass 10M TTM hardware sales, as their predecessors did.
 
Jun 1, 2005
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I should note again, I'm referring to TTMs. And no, not by themselves, at least not initially. I don't think the PS4 or XB1 will reach the 10M mark alone for a while, but in combination with their predecessors I expect "Sony and Microsoft's consoles" should return from the TTM of ~7.5M it's plummeting towards back to the 10M level or higher.
Ah, okay - that makes more sense. Even then, I suspect the TTM might actually be down to something like ~7.1M by the end of October - and even if you add up all the systems (XB1+360+PS4+PS3) together for November, the TTM will still fall below 7M, because I have a hard time seeing those 4 systems doing 2M+ this November (maybe if the PS4 can get out by the end of October, and have the full month - and a healthy supply of availability). It will be a long climb, because the bottom has dropped out REALLY fast and hard on the current systems.

With regard to their performance alone, I would anticipate something between the PS2/XBX's more rapid rise and the stymied slope of the 7th gen HD systems. And that they will reach and surpass 10M TTM hardware sales, as their predecessors did.
Not unreasonable. I fear a pretty steep drop-off sometime next year though once the early adopters have bought in. I can see a strong start for both systems - it's been a LONG time, and there are a good number of people ready to move into something new. But the prices are just really high again (similar to the start of last gen). 400+500 is awfully similar to the 300/400 + 500/600 prices that we had last gen - with an economy that is worse, and much stronger competition from PC gaming than existed at the start of last gen.

It will be fun to see what happens!
 
Jun 7, 2004
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I'm feeling too lazy to draw up my own graph so here's one from one of JVM's articles:

With regard to their performance alone, I would anticipate something between the PS2/XBX's more rapid rise and the stymied slope of the 7th gen HD systems. And that they will reach and surpass 10M TTM hardware sales, as their predecessors did.
i wonder what that graph would look like if microsoft did not put a bullet in the original xbox. that thing was selling extremely well in 2005, and likely would have continued to do so in 2006 and 2007. it essentially forced anyone in the market for an xbox system to get a 360 instead- there was no competition from microsoft's own previous gen. of course the system was stupidly expensive, so i can't blame them for doing so. at least they learned to pass along the costs to the consumers the next time around.
 
Mar 22, 2009
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i wonder what that graph would look like if microsoft did not put a bullet in the original xbox. that thing was selling extremely well in 2005, and likely would have continued to do so in 2006 and 2007. it essentially forced anyone in the market for an xbox system to get a 360 instead- there was no competition from microsoft's own previous gen. of course the system was stupidly expensive, so i can't blame them for doing so. at least they learned to pass along the costs to the consumers the next time around.
the blue line is already trending downward quite a bit before 360 launch, falling behind the ps360line a year before that. it would have made for a slightly slower decline i suppose?
 
Jun 7, 2004
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the blue line is already trending downward quite a bit before 360 launch, falling behind the ps360line a year before that. it would have made for a slightly slower decline i suppose?
it probably would have at least been flat year to year instead of declining by 2m between the 360 and ps3 launch. after the 360 launch, you're basically comparing two consoles to the ps2.
 
Jan 5, 2012
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Sega was losing way too much money and consumer interest was all over the PS2. One of those strange times were games didn't actually made a difference.

At the least Nintendo made the cycle interesting again, this time at expense of the success of their home console line. They just need to play the patience card, it would be interesting to see how things pan out for them this holliday if they chose not to drop price. I think that would be a risky move that might be of benefit to them and the experiment will prove how plausible their chances are to come up with profits out of the Wii U endevour.
As far as consumer interest is concerned Wii U is in extremly similar situation to Dreamcast with all the attention centered on ps4/xbone.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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even though it was dropping a million yoy prior to 360 launch before xbox was killed?
okay i definitely confused myself there. the xbox outsold the ps2 in 2004 several times, and microsoft killed the momentum of the system in 2005 (no first party games or price drops). the ps2 then picked up the slack in 2005 as best it could. it was on a decline, but the xbox declined rapidly.
 
Feb 5, 2009
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It is too expensive, I agree.I think the various comments from senior management have made it clear they don't really plan to drop the price. They're betting on bundles being enough to move the needle it seems.
Interesting end of the year incoming. The bubdle that makes the most sense is the one with Wind Waker HD since that game is already pay for.
I feel I should note that the Nikkei said the following:

In a bid to hasten game development on both its 3DS and Wii U video game systems, Nintendo plans to merge its handheld and console divisions next month, Nintendo has confirmed to Gamasutra.

On February 16, the Japanese publishing giant will bring the separate divisions together, opening a new unified sector that will include 130 console engineers and 150 handhand engineers.

A Nikkei report (subscription required) also states that Nintendo plans to open a new $340 million facility next to its headquarters in Kyoto, with the aim to open the new building by the end of the year.

The hope is that by merging these two divisions, the company will also be able to speed up its hardware development cycle to better compete with tablets and smartphones.

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/18488...next_month.php

And that Iwata said the following:

As you might already know from some newspaper reports, we will reorganize our development divisions next month for the first time in nine years. Two divisions which have independently developed handheld devices and home consoles will be united to form the Integrated Research & Development Division, which will be headed by Genyo Takeda, Senior Managing Director.

Last year we also started a project to integrate the architecture for our future platforms. What we mean by integrating platforms is not integrating handhelds devices and home consoles to make only one machine. What we are aiming at is to integrate the architecture to form a common basis for software development so that we can make software assets more transferrable, and operating systems and their build-in applications more portable, regardless of form factor or performance of each platform. They will also work to avoid software lineup shortages or software development delays which tend to happen just after the launch of new hardware.
Some time ago it was technologically impossible to have the same architecture for handheld devices and home consoles and what we did was therefore reasonable. Although it has not been long since we began to integrate the architecture and this will have no short-term result, we believe that it will provide a great benefit to our platform business in the long run. I am covering this topic as today is our Corporate Management Policy Briefing.


Unless they intend to try to shove an IBM CPU and AMD GPU into a handheld (lol), chances are they're interested in using mobile parts for both their handhelds and consoles, while upclocking/using more powerful ones in their consoles.
That's one of the courses im waiting for them to take, to be honest, i was expecting/wishing for them to take that path with the Wii U, even more so, considering they refused to go with more a more "common" setup like both Sony and MS did this time.

Nintendo won't release an hybrid console due to their fear of cutting one revenue stream. So this what makes sense to them a portable and a home console with similar architecture but with different power envelopes in mind. I would like for them to start going in this direction right now with the 3DS and Wii U. These 2 systems might not share similar architectures but they do share the exactly same input set up.
Hahaha, yeah I'm just fucking with you mostly. It's impressive how Sega was able to support that box with such a varied range of content, they filled genre gaps with in house IP. That is something Nintendo is also going to need to do, plug the genre gaps in it's console catalogue.
But that's something they can't do internally and aren't doing even with external help. It's weird they greenlighted the W101 since unlike Bayonetta it doesn't feel a gap in their line up. The next big release after Pikmin looks like yet another similar game, not distinguishing "visually" from the ones they have been punpimg out since release. The console launched with a colorful mini game compilation and platformer, followed by another colorful game compilation and platformer, then Pikmin, W101, Wind Waker, a Donkey Kong platformer and closes the year with... another platformer. All fantastic games, yet they give the perception of not much variety.
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Feb 26, 2005
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Santa Destroy
Guys looking at sales performance in a vacuum is not taking into account the whole picture, you should filter in market growth and contraction factors during each generation you are comparing

overall spending habits those years are not the same, competitive analysis should look at the size of the ocean and how many other fish are swimming in otherwise what are you trying to learn?

Success in a $20bn market may not be the same in a $50bn market, especially when market share is factored In
 
Feb 27, 2010
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I really don't want to return to one screen RPGs. Having so much information, maps, and equipment screens open at all times is so much better for games like Zelda, Fire Emblem, and Shin Megami Tensei. Would foldable screen tech even be an option they could be messing with in R&D at this point in time?
 
Sep 4, 2009
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Can someone with access comply the top 10 selling PC retail games since the start of the gen?
It's probably Diablo,Sims, WoW exp, WoW exp, Starcraft 2, Skyrim. But still.
 

jcm

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Dec 8, 2008
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We'll see. As of now, the 3DS+Vita is right about on par with GBA+Wonderswan+NGage at a similar point in time. Almost eerily so, in fact
I guess you're looking at ltd? Because the 3ds is selling worse than the gba did at a comparable point in the lifespan, as far as I can tell. The 3ds sold 14m hardware nd 50m software last fy. The years don't line up neatly, so exact comparisons are hard, but the gba sold 15.5 and 60 in 2002, and 17.5 and 75 in 2003. Nintendo is forecasting GBA-esque sales this year of 18 and 80 but so far it looks like they'll come up short.
 
Jun 1, 2005
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I guess you're looking at ltd? Because the 3ds is selling worse than the gba did at a comparable point in the lifespan, as far as I can tell. The 3ds sold 14m hardware nd 50m software last fy. The years don't line up neatly, so exact comparisons are hard, but the gba sold 15.5 and 60 in 2002, and 17.5 and 75 in 2003. Nintendo is forecasting GBA-esque sales this year of 18 and 80 but so far it looks like they'll come up short.
Yeah, LTD. The 3DS is pretty much right where the GBA was at (both HW and SW) in terms of LTD at this point in their lives, and the 3DS should finish somewhere around the GBA at end of life.

In any case, I actually addressed your point in that same paragraph that you responded to, ha ha...

Dalthien said:
The 3DS+Vita combo may fall slightly behind over the next year or two (or maybe not, with Pokemon + possible price cuts/new models -- plus anything the Vita adds over the next year or two is pretty much pure bonus, since the Wonderswan and NGage were pretty much dead by this similar point in 2003), but even if it does, the difference will be relatively small, and the 3DS should have an extra year or so to itself on the market to close up any gap that might arise.

Ultimately, I don't see much reason to believe that the 3DS won't reach the 81M that the GBA did, or especially that 3DS+Vita won't reach the ~85M that GBA+Wonderswan+NGage reached.
 
Jul 17, 2006
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Is anyone still expecting some huge bump in Wii U sales in the next year?
At this point you might as well wait until next month to see how Pikmin 3 boosted Wii U sales before making a declarative statement like that.

But some sort of decent bump happening is pretty much a given. 3D mario, mario kart, and smash are all guaranteed bumps and there's no way there won't be a price cut sometime before 2014 holiday season. Just don't know how much of one.

A baseline of 100K+ a month in slow months is certainly possible. I just wonder if that's enough for nintendo to be happy with.
 
Jul 6, 2012
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Code:
[B]DREAMCAST, NORTH AMERICAN RELEASES		WII U, NORTH AMERICAN RELEASES[/B]

Hope this helps.[/QUOTE]

I appreciate the list, but it's not exactly fair to list downloadables and VC games on the Wii U release list- that is something the DC could not really have and a majority of consumers still shop at retail. Having Ice Climbers on there is an unnecessary bullet point and is a bit misleading from what I feel is the main point- the Wii U is suffering at retail. Games are games, but some are more important than others when measuring the health of a console, particularly when NPD numbers are our metric. 

Again, thanks for the compilation and I hope I don't sound too critical.
 

jcm

Member
Dec 8, 2008
5,102
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Yeah, LTD. The 3DS is pretty much right where the GBA was at (both HW and SW) in terms of LTD at this point in their lives, and the 3DS should finish somewhere around the GBA at end of life.

In any case, I actually addressed your point in that same paragraph that you responded to, ha ha...
But they're not the same. They are down substantially, both hardware and software. I don't know which numbers you are using, but I pulled the annuals out for the earnings reports. Here are the shipment numbers for the two.

Code:
GBA       HW     SW
2001    1.07   2.73
2002   17.09  47.05
2003   15.65  59.12 
2004   17.59  74.89
2005   15.40  84.57


3DS
2011    3.61   9.43
2012   13.53  36.00
2013   13.95  49.61
 
May 24, 2012
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At this point you might as well wait until next month to see how Pikmin 3 boosted Wii U sales before making a declarative statement like that.

But some sort of decent bump happening is pretty much a given. 3D mario, mario kart, and smash are all guaranteed bumps and there's no way there won't be a price cut sometime before 2014 holiday season. Just don't know how much of one.

A baseline of 100K+ a month in slow months is certainly possible. I just wonder if that's enough for nintendo to be happy with.
>100K / 4-wk baseline would be great for Nintendo at this point. That's above GameCube's pre-2005 slowest months.

Assuming the absolute worst case scenario---where 3D Mario / Mario Kart / Donkey Kong / Mario & Sonic fail to sufficiently invigorate sales---I predict 200K / month during the holidays, and a ~60K / 4-wk baseline for 2014.

Basically, I expect a 200% baseline jump at the very least from the holiday lineup / Mario Kart. Anything less than that is simply not worth keeping the system alive.
 
Jun 1, 2005
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But they're not the same. They are down substantially, both hardware and software. I don't know which numbers you are using, but I pulled the annuals out for the earnings reports.
Use the same earnings reports,

HW

GBA after 9 quarters - 33.81M
3DS after 10 quarters - 32.48M

SW

GBA through 9 quarters - 108.9M (with Pokemon)
3DS through 10 quarters - 106.04M (without Pokemon)


Both systems have had 2 holiday seasons in those numbers. The GBA had already had Ruby/Sapphire released in those numbers, the 3DS hasn't had X/Y released yet. And Nintendo's software totals don't include digital-only software sales for the 3DS.

The 3DS is down slightly, but the combo numbers are very close. And the Vita is ultimately going to do better than Wonderswan+NGage, especially with respect to software sales.

The 3DS will probably have a similar lifespan to the GBA (Nintendo was shipping GBAs for like 10 years), but the 3DS should have an extra year (maybe two) on the market before it's successor hits - so that will help any minor shortfall that accrues over the next year or two.

If you believe that 3DS+Vita won't reach ~85M combined in the end, then we disagree. But I'm not even sure if you believe that or not.
 
May 24, 2012
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I appreciate the list, but it's not exactly fair to list downloadables and VC games on the Wii U release list- that is something the DC could not really have and a majority of consumers still shop at retail. Having Ice Climbers on there is an unnecessary bullet point and is a bit misleading from what I feel is the main point- the Wii U is suffering at retail. Games are games, but some are more important than others when measuring the health of a console, particularly when NPD numbers are our metric.

Again, thanks for the compilation and I hope I don't sound too critical.
The list isn't supposed to demonstrate how effective each console is at retail...it simply represents a comprehensive listing of all titles released / re-released for both systems during their first ten months.
 
Jun 9, 2012
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At this point you might as well wait until next month to see how Pikmin 3 boosted Wii U sales before making a declarative statement like that.

But some sort of decent bump happening is pretty much a given. 3D mario, mario kart, and smash are all guaranteed bumps and there's no way there won't be a price cut sometime before 2014 holiday season. Just don't know how much of one.

A baseline of 100K+ a month in slow months is certainly possible. I just wonder if that's enough for nintendo to be happy with.
100k a month outside of huge release months and holidays seems very unlikely. The best Nintendo can probably hope for is a baseline of 60-80k barring a drop to 199 which i believe is the price where the system could actually recover. If nintendo can't be happy with 100k a month they will give up next year then. The system needs to get as far away from the ps4 price as possible.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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But that's something they can't do internally and aren't doing even with external help. It's weird they greenlighted the W101 since unlike Bayonetta it doesn't feel a gap in their line up. The next big release after Pikmin looks like yet another similar game, not distinguishing "visually" from the ones they have been punpimg out since release. The console launched with a colorful mini game compilation and platformer, followed by another colorful game compilation and platformer, then Pikmin, W101, Wind Waker, a Donkey Kong platformer and closes the year with... another platformer. All fantastic games, yet they give the perception of not much variety.
i think it's more or less a conscious effort to nail down that fanbase. they have stopped trying to get the m-rated market with the wii. the gamecube era they were all about it: eternal darkness, resident evil exclusivity, geist, and even metroid prime to an extent. the approach had varied success.

instead it seems they're trying to build a fanbase of family-friendly and colorful games. to keep that fanbase growing and happy. it's a market that sony and to a lesser extent, microsoft, are basically neglecting with their upcoming platforms. it leaves nintendo with a niche of the market, but one they can profit from for the generation.
 
Mar 22, 2009
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i think it's more or less a conscious effort to nail down that fanbase. they have stopped trying to get the m-rated market with the wii. the gamecube era they were all about it: eternal darkness, resident evil exclusivity, geist, and even metroid prime to an extent. the approach had varied success.

instead it seems they're trying to build a fanbase of family-friendly and colorful games. to keep that fanbase growing and happy. it's a market that sony and to a lesser extent, microsoft, are basically neglecting with their upcoming platforms. it leaves nintendo with a niche of the market, but one they can profit from for the generation.
they aren't really neglecting those markets on their current platforms tho, and especially not when third party is concerned. Their current systems are also cheaper.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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they aren't really neglecting those markets on their current platforms tho, and especially not when third party is concerned. Their current systems are also cheaper.
on their current platforms, sony has been trying, but they haven't been able to reach that fanbase like microsoft or nintendo. microsoft tried for a while, but they only bone they've thrown that fanbase in the last year or so is minecraft 360.

overall the amount of effort microsoft and sony are showing to that group is about the same as nintendo shows to the 14-39 male demographic. they have enough third-party games that do the job, and are working on some exclusive games in that style themselves, but it's clearly not their focus.
 
Mar 22, 2009
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on their current platforms, sony has been trying, but they haven't been able to reach that fanbase like microsoft or nintendo. microsoft tried for a while, but they only bone they've thrown that fanbase in the last year or so is minecraft 360.

overall the amount of effort microsoft and sony are showing to that group is about the same as nintendo shows to the 14-39 male demographic. they have enough third-party games that do the job, and are working on some exclusive games in that style themselves, but it's clearly not their focus.
I think you are greatly overstating Nintendo's effort towards 14-39 males or understating sony and MS's stabs at all ages stuff.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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I think you are greatly overstating Nintendo's effort towards 14-39 males or understating sony and MS's stabs at all ages stuff.
sony and ms taking stabs at all ages stuff is generally the problem though. sony especially doesn't seem to understand it much at all. a lot of their studios focus on presentation over everything, when it's mechanics that hook people in that demographic. microsoft does get it, but they haven't supported the fanbase much since late 2011. i think their problem is size. as big as microsoft is, they don't have a lot of first-party studios to spread around.

nintendo's male-oriented games are metroid, star fox, zelda, fire emblem, etc. there are some designers there who really believe in pushing presentation (especially in skyward sword), but with miyamoto and the other guys from the 80s running shop, it's definitely more about mechanics.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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Which is why it it so sad that anyone compares the WiiU to the Dreamcast. The Dreamcast was a glorious system. The WiiU has three good games and just remakes ahead.
the dreamcast comparison isn't very accurate. a better look at the system's first nine months would take you from november 1998 to july 1999. the us had an awesome lineup right away because there was about a year between console launches.
 
Mar 22, 2009
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sony and ms taking stabs at all ages stuff is generally the problem though. sony especially doesn't seem to understand it much at all. a lot of their studios focus on presentation over everything, when it's mechanics that hook people in that demographic. microsoft does get it, but they haven't supported the fanbase much since late 2011. i think their problem is size. as big as microsoft is, they don't have a lot of first-party studios to spread around.

nintendo's male-oriented games are metroid, star fox, zelda, fire emblem, etc. there are some designers there who really believe in pushing presentation (especially in skyward sword), but with miyamoto and the other guys from the 80s running shop, it's definitely more about mechanics.
I would agree thats sony's efforts have been mostly misguided but they are actually putting in alot of it. At least a couple of games for that demographic per year for the last few years, many of them new IP.

Nintendos young male targeted games you might get 1 a year if you look at both platforms. You mentioned Star Fox which hasn't had a new game in the series in seven years and since this discussion is focused mostly on the wiiu, you have to go back eight years for a new home console release.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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I would agree thats sony's efforts have been mostly misguided but they are actually putting in alot of it. At least a couple of games for that demographic per year for the last few years, many of them new IP.

Nintendos young male targeted games you might get 1 a year if you look at both platforms. You mentioned Star Fox which hasn't had a new game in the series in seven years and since this discussion is focused mostly on the wiiu, you have to go back eight years for a new home console release.
well i think that more than just making the game, understanding the demographic matters. nintendo threw the younger male demographic a bone with other m, but they clearly did not understand the presentation aspect that a lot of them cling onto. similarly, sony makes something like puppeteer, which fills the screen with a bunch of unnecessary presentation elements that takes focus away from the level design. even a decade ago, jason rubin stated his clear lack of understanding when he thought people played platformers for the story.
 
Mar 22, 2009
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well i think that more than just making the game, understanding the demographic matters. nintendo threw the younger male demographic a bone with other m, but they clearly did not understand the presentation aspect that a lot of them cling onto. similarly, sony makes something like puppeteer, which fills the screen with a bunch of unnecessary presentation elements that takes focus away from the level design. even a decade ago, jason rubin stated his clear lack of understanding when he thought people played platformers for the story.
you have to actually make a game in the first place to appeal to a fanbase though
 
Apr 5, 2006
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Higher software prices definitely hurt 3DS games.
Obviously total revenue is still way down from DS, but it would've definitely spurred some game sales.

Though I doubt publishers like Atlus are at all displeased with that.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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you have to actually make a game in the first place to appeal to a fanbase though
true, and it's something nintendo still does, but it's sort of a lopsided year for direct comparisons. sony usually doesn't bring out so many platformers, and nintendo usually doesn't have so few games in the style of their competition (one game a year is a bit of hyperbole).
 
Nov 13, 2011
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I'd say Sony have tried much more and still failed to tap into those other markets (family-oriented, children-oriented titles). Looking at their PS3 publishing output their only modest success has been the LittleBigPlanet franchise. Their last real success with other markets was probably the SingStar series.

Particularly if one looks at the last few years, although we tend to focus on their big AAA franchises, much of their publishing has been with the intent, while not necessarily the success, of appealing to other demographics. Looking at last year for instance there was LBP Karting, their Smash Bros clone, Wonder Book, two Ratchet games. They've essentially tried to emulate, but fail to capture that something special to actually appeal to children/families.

With regard to Nintendo's publishing and the 15-35 male demographic, I don't think they've tried as much. I think Nintendo did try to an extent with the Wii and are with the Wii U with some of their publishing (things like The Last Story, Bayonetta 2) - but the problems are that the systems themselves still aren't positioned towards these markets and Nintendo, in terms of their internal development, don't have an understanding of this demographic in the modern global market. I think global is an important word their too, as even with their 15-35 male oriented development and publishing, it still seems largely targeted towards the Japanese market.

Running off those franchises for instance Zelda, Star Fox, Metroid; I think it's overstatement to say that these are games like the other publishers make. I just don't think fundamentally they resonate broadly with a global market which now has its controllers firmly pointed towards COD, Battlefield, Assassin's Creed, Arkham, Bioshock, Halo etc. I think if Nintendo still thinks that releasing a Zelda or Star Fox is the key to trying to reclaim mindshare amongst this demographic then they're in for a rude awakening.

----

Unrelated to current discussion, but graphs I was too lazy to make earlier. What I have for TTM US console sales.



Nintendo's rise and fall.
Microsoft's rise to dominance of the US.
Sony's slide.

At a certain point the Wii managed an annualized rate of 10M systems alone. What a waste of an opportunity.
 

jcm

Member
Dec 8, 2008
5,102
0
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Use the same earnings reports,

HW

GBA after 9 quarters - 33.81M
3DS after 10 quarters - 32.48M

SW

GBA through 9 quarters - 108.9M (with Pokemon)
3DS through 10 quarters - 106.04M (without Pokemon)
I suppose that's one way of comparing their sales. Another is to notice that for the past two years the 3ds has been selling 15-20% less hardware and software than the gba did at a similar point. Your original contention, I believe, was that the market has returned to GBA levels. For the past two years it has actually been quite a bit lower than GBA levels.

Both systems have had 2 holiday seasons in those numbers. The GBA had already had Ruby/Sapphire released in those numbers, the 3DS hasn't had X/Y released yet. And Nintendo's software totals don't include digital-only software sales for the 3DS.

The 3DS is down slightly, but the combo numbers are very close. And the Vita is ultimately going to do better than Wonderswan+NGage, especially with respect to software sales.

The 3DS will probably have a similar lifespan to the GBA (Nintendo was shipping GBAs for like 10 years), but the 3DS should have an extra year (maybe two) on the market before it's successor hits - so that will help any minor shortfall that accrues over the next year or two.

If you believe that 3DS+Vita won't reach ~85M combined in the end, then we disagree. But I'm not even sure if you believe that or not.
I think that depends in large part on how long Nintendo leaves it around. I don't think it's at all assured that the 3DS will reach 80M. They won't hit 50M by the end of this year. If they have about 48M in march , then they'll be below 65M in march 2015. don't expect the vita to ever be relevant.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Jun 22, 2004
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Interesting. I wrote a column a while back in which I said something along the lines of "we've had a decade of Sony+Microsoft consoles selling at around 10mm per year" and your graph shows that the two have fallen further than that combined rate has ever been. Even lower than the transition from Xbox to Xbox 360.

I get the feeling that some publishers are getting some decent profits out of this last year of the generation, but that lull feels so uncomfortable. The best angle I could put on it would be that there is demand building up in the market's oldest customers (the ones who bought systems in 2006-2007) and they'll come out in force next year.

For the sake of Sony and Microsoft, I hope that's true. :|