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NPD Sales Results for July 2017

Man God

Non-Canon Member
Awakening was pretty dark if you think about it.

Children who lost their parents and surrounded by despair? Pretty sad future. Give me an Awakening game as the terrible future children.

Tonally Awakening is the same as the rest of the series before it. It's Fates where it starts to go off the rails a bit, but even then its still basically on course for the rest of the series.
 

LordRaptor

Member
Are you serious or what?

Of course I'm serious, two different tracking methodologies provide two disparate data sets - look at MC vs Famitsu numbers to see how different tracking methods provide two different results.

Its bad methodology to compare two disparate sets of data

e:
Surely Sony has what NPD has and uses these figures and whatever of their own data allows to provide accurate figures of sold to consumers, otherwise they'd be in trouble or have to have * ** *** **** qualifiers as we've seen at times from various platform holders.

* ah...
** but...
*** well...
**** excluding...

Sony DO have asterisked disclaimers for their sellthrough to consumers though - they are estimates.
 
Microsoft's gaming revenue is now separated from the rest, you only have to look at this page at gaming revenue. There is only revenue though, nothing is known about profit/loss.

If anyone is using the whole "more personal computing" segment, he is out of place since this includes revenue from all Windows products and Surface.

Yes, exactly as I said - below double the amount of MS's revenue.

I actually just understood what you were trying to say, yeah. So uh... yeah. Sony should be ashamed I guess.
 

bombshell

Member
Indeed, it does.
And it makes sense that it does, since all of their games are on PC, too.

Just like Minecraft revenue from all platforms etc.

You used points to infer how you believe PlayStation is a worse business than Xbox, but to do so you used a number that is useless in such a comparison.
 

cakely

Member
And yet, Sony's gaming division's revenue of the last quarter was below double the amount of Microsoft's gaming division's revenue of that same quarter.
Even though

- Sony sells an SKU with a premium price tag and MS does not
- sells an expensive VR headset and MS does not
- sells four times as much PS4s as MS sells Xboxes
- has more than twice of Xbox's userbase

This certainly paints a rather unflattering picture of Sony's business affairs.

Your conclusion is flawed, but more importantly, why are you doing this?

Are you trying to compare some sort of ratio of consoles shipped to revenue between the two companies? It's not a useful metric.
 
Of course I'm serious, two different tracking methodologies provide two disparate data sets - look at MC vs Famitsu numbers to see how different tracking methods provide two different results.

Its bad methodology to compare two disparate sets of data

They off by a few tens of thousands but when talking about numbers this big that is not a big deal .
The PS4 number from both MC and Famitsu so close that it won't really matter working out certain things .
 

foxuzamaki

Doesn't read OPs, especially not his own
No, I do know what I'm talking about having played virtually all of these games. Days of Ruin had a weak storybase and roster that didn't correspond with the brooding tone it had set out to create. The series, much like Fire Emblem before Awakening rescued it, was on the way out regardless. Blame it on its niche qualities or classification or whatever. To blame its darker direction for its demise would be akin to me blaming the FE's tone for its own imminent collapse before Awakening reversed its fortune.
You aren't gonna feel attached to these characters if they were all a bunch of stoic assholes, fire emblem was always careful not to get too dark because real life people aren't dour all the time, furthermore units have to have personalities that instantly is suppose to make them standout from the other nameless units in the game and make you ultimately care for them and makes you consider your strategies because you don't want to lose them, even of the game may offer multiple choices from the same class
 

Goalus

Member
Just like Minecraft revenue from all platforms etc.

You used points to infer how you believe PlayStation is a worse business than Xbox, but to do so you used a number that is useless in such a comparison.

It is only useless if you do not understand the concept of a service. Xbox is much more than Xbox console hardware, it is becoming a service. But if you consider it useless, fine. I do not.
 

Goalus

Member
Your conclusion is flawed, but more importantly, why are you doing this?

Are you trying to compare some sort of ratio of consoles shipped to revenue between the two companies? It's not a useful metric.

I do this in order to provide an unpopular perspective on Sony's alleged dominance over MS that is usually coupled with speculation of Xbox being in a dire state.
 

bombshell

Member
It is only useless if you do not understand the concept of a service. Xbox is much more than Xbox console hardware, it is becoming a service. But if you consider it useless, fine. I do not.

I fully understand service based business models. I also fully understand the importance of making valid comparisons and deductions, which yours wasn't. I just gave you one example for why it wasn't: Minecraft is not an Xbox deal, it's a Microsoft deal.

I do this in order to provide an unpopular perspective on Sony's alleged dominance over MS that is usually coupled with speculation of Xbox being in a dire state.

Haha, so do you or do you not understand that the number you used tells you basically nothing about the state of Xbox?
 

Goalus

Member
I fully understand service based business models. I also fully understand the importance of making valid comparisons and deductions, which yours wasn't. I just gave you one example for why it wasn't: Minecraft is not an Xbox deal, it's a Microsoft deal.

Microsoft will ultimately use Minecraft to pull people into their ecosystem (their ecosystem == Xbox). It's not quite there yet, that is correct.

Haha, so do you or do you not understand that the number you used tells you basically nothing about the state of Xbox?

It's difficult to reply to this because neither "yes" nor "no" would be a correct answer. Let's just agree to disagree.
 
This thread appears to be going off the rails, but let me clear one thing up, at least for the US market.

Of course Sony, and every manufacturer and publisher, has POS tracking for its own products.

NPD figures can be compared with figures provided for the US market by any mfg or publisher without question.

Do you think Xenoblade Chronicles 2 will be commercially successful on the Switch? Will it be more beneficial to delay the game to next year instead of this holiday period? Just curious on your thoughts on this game's sale potential.

Well, quantitatively what does "commercially successful" mean? The Switch is a success, everything looks good from a sales perspective for both HW and SW. Generally, an open window is better than a crowded one. So I don't see any reason to doubt the potential of any game on Switch to sell, but determining what is "successful" requires inputs that are unavailable. As with all games, sales will be determined by some combination of quality, marketing effectiveness, and a bunch of random, unidentifiable appeal factors which makes game sales so difficult to predict to begin with.

I mostly lurk these threads, but thanks for all of your input.

Happy to help.
 

kswiston

Member
This thread appears to be going off the rails, but let me clear one thing up, at least for the US market.

Of course Sony, and every manufacturer and publisher, has POS tracking for its own products.

NPD figures can be compared with figures provided for the US market by any mfg or publisher without question.

I mostly lurk these threads, but thanks for all of your input.
 
This thread appears to be going off the rails, but let me clear one thing up, at least for the US market.

Of course Sony, and every manufacturer and publisher, has POS tracking for its own products.

NPD figures can be compared with figures provided for the US market by any mfg or publisher without question.

Nice of you to jump in .
Still i would think people would know that companies have there own POS tracking .
 

bombshell

Member
This thread appears to be going off the rails, but let me clear one thing up, at least for the US market.

Of course Sony, and every manufacturer and publisher, has POS tracking for its own products.

NPD figures can be compared with figures provided for the US market by any mfg or publisher without question.

Thank you, Mat. Yeah, I don't know what LordRaptor was going on about trying to discredit the sales comparison that I did.

I definitely made sure several times to point out that it of course isn't completely accurate, since we simply don't have any official details on the Xbox side, but with your confirmation I was at least not in the wrong on the PS4 side with the sold through numbers.
 

sirronoh

Member
Nice of you to jump in .
Still i would think people would know that companies have there own POS tracking .

You'd be surprised at what people would lead themselves to believe in order to support their preconceived beliefs.


This thread appears to be going off the rails, but let me clear one thing up, at least for the US market.

Of course Sony, and every manufacturer and publisher, has POS tracking for its own products.

NPD figures can be compared with figures provided for the US market by any mfg or publisher without question.

Thanks as always Mat.
 

LordRaptor

Member
Of course Sony, and every manufacturer and publisher, has POS tracking for its own products.

NPD figures can be compared with figures provided for the US market by any mfg or publisher without question.

Ah okay, I still don't think different data sets should be directly compared as it will compound any margins of error

Thank you, Mat. Yeah, I don't know what LordRaptor was going on about trying to discredit the sales comparison that I did.

I wasn't trying to "discredit" it, I was saying you shouldn't use two different datasets directly compared like that.
 
Ah okay, I still don't think different data sets should be directly compared as it will compound any margins of error

This is also true, and generally a very good rule to follow.

It's especially true when comparing multiple geographies, each of which may have their own peculiarities.
 
This is also true, and generally a very good rule to follow.

It's especially true when comparing multiple geographies, each of which may have their own peculiarities.

Still for certain things the difference so small or don't matter as much so you can still work out certain things .
For eg the difference between hardware trackers in Japan for PS4 is 15K .
If you working attach rate or weekly avg sales it not going to really matter in the end which tracker you use.

Matt i am wondering if you guys going to get the break down for UC TLL from Sony .
Like how many sales come from the season pass .
Of course i don't expect you will be able to share that data just wondering if you going to get it .
 

kswiston

Member
I missed all of the Fire Emblem Switch talk. I think it will end up being the most successful entry yet.

Fire Emblem Heroes is still a Top 20 grossing app in the US after 6 months (and is in the top 10 for Japan). If they go the fully voiced route of FE Echoes, with much better production values and some of the features people liked in Awakening/Fates, it is going to be a popular game. Hopefully the 2018 release date sticks, and they stick to their almost concurrent localizations.
 
I do this in order to provide an unpopular perspective on Sony's alleged dominance over MS that is usually coupled with speculation of Xbox being in a dire state.

The trouble with defending MS's current situation with a simple 'it makes lots of dosh and that's all that matters' line of thinking, is that it completely ignores the wider picture, and dismisses the genuine questions people are increasingly raising over the long term health and wider appeal of the platform.

Simply squeezing more and more money out of a shrinking pool of dedicated fans, and quadrupling down on that existing, narrow demographic of mostly young US males with the current moneymaking tricks and manipulative, anti consumer practices, negates any chance of even maintaining there audience long term, let alone expanding the business into new markets and appealing to different audiences.

Right now, it might be working (and MS are supisciously intent on making sure we have no idea if this stratergy is actually making them money), but I cannot see how that can possibly be sustainable in the long term. It's just not a healthy approach to take, and you need only look at their shrinking first party output, shrivelling worldwide user base, and YOY sales decline (especially when their direct competitors are just slaying it), to see indisputable evidence of that.
 

bombshell

Member
I wasn't trying to "discredit" it, I was saying you shouldn't use two different datasets directly compared like that.

Fair enough. Let's just conclude that the biggest possible margin of error in my comparison calculation was not on the PS4 side, since it was using sold through numbers in everything, just not from same tracker.

But just as gundam said, any margins of error do not remove the damning outlook of the Xbox One 2017 sales.
 
I missed all of the Fire Emblem Switch talk. I think it will end up being the most successful entry yet.

Fire Emblem Heroes is still a Top 20 grossing app in the US after 6 months (and is in the top 10 for Japan). If they go the fully voiced route of FE Echoes, with much better production values and some of the features people liked in Awakening/Fates, it is going to be a popular game. Hopefully the 2018 release date sticks, and they stick to their almost concurrent localizations.
2 million copies would make it the most successful. I think it's doable.

2018 date might happen. Intelligent systems are very consistent and usually work fast. Then again. This was announced with just a placeholder and it's a console game. Hope we see info before the year ends.
 

kswiston

Member
2 million copies would make it the most successful. I think it's doable.

2018 date might happen. Intelligent systems are very consistent and usually work fast. Then again. This was announced with just a placeholder and it's a console game. Hope we see info before the year ends.

Do we know what was up with Fates' reported sales? In April 2016, Nintendo reported 1.84M units for Fates as of Mar 31 2016, just before the EU release I believe. Then a year later, they had the lifetime sales at 1.6M.

Were they padding the numbers with DLC purchases of the alternate paths in that first sales statement?
 
Do we know what was up with Fates' reported sales? In April 2016, Nintendo reported 1.84M units for Fates as of Mar 2016, just before the EU release I believe. Then a year later, they had the lifetime sales at 1.6M.

Were they padding the numbers with DLC purchases of the alternate paths in that first sales statement?

It had to be, Japan numbers going backwards makes 0 sense otherwise.
 

Sterok

Member
Do we know what was up with Fates' reported sales? In April 2016, Nintendo reported 1.84M units for Fates as of Mar 2016, just before the EU release I believe. Then a year later, they had the lifetime sales at 1.6M.

Were they padding the numbers with DLC purchases of the alternate paths in that first sales statement?

The 1.84 was shipments, which clearly added the alternate paths since Japan's numbers were far higher than the actual sales. The 1.6 seems to be sales to consumers, where they don't add the extra paths. No, I don't get the inconsistency.
 
What's the Xbox One YTD anyway? I'm starting to think it won't even beat PS4 on Xbox One X month tbh

Since we only know it's between the 3DS and the PS4 for last month, the XO is somewhere between 1.1m and 1.2m for the year so far roughly, according to the leaked numbers I've seen here at least.

PS4 is 2m from those same numbers, for comparison, and given trends for the rest of the year, I'd expect the XO to be on the low end of the range I gave quite honestly. It's really not been doing well this year, and it's got to be below 2 million worldwide so far this year given that NA is accountable for most of their sales.

As for the XOX, I'm assuming it will mirror how the XO S sold. Big for a couple of months, then slowing to a crawl. Wether it'll be a big enough bump to unseat the PS4 and/or Switch, given the games those systems have and are marketing partners with, well, let's just say your not the only one who wouldn't put money on it.
 

le.phat

Member
I think the heart of the matter, and the problem
Xbox has always struggled with, is that MS has never had a decent passion that created a secondary motive for being in the games industry.

Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft are all in it for the money first and foremost, there's no denying that, but with PlayStation being born as much out of Sony's music and entertainment arms as their tech manufacturing ones, and Nintendos background as toy makers, there's always been an underlying secondary objective with their products that MS simply lacks.

Sony wants to make entertainment and art, and is willing to make three failures for every fourth success because it understands that variety and a willingness to take risks for 'the next big thing' work just as well to sell an overall product as spending the same money on advertising, if not more so.

Nintendo knows the power of play, and that not every toy will sell as well as hoped, but that a toy that isn't fun to play with, just is not worth making. That simple feeling of joy carries them through a broader incompetence in many, many areas, that millions of people (myself included) are willing to forgive them for, because they really do, genuinely, want their customers to have fun and be happy.

Microsoft...Microsoft just wants your money. They want to sell you a product that will give them the most profit for their investment, and to keep you in their ecosystem, spending money there and not anywhere else. It's given us some incredibly quality of life improvements, I mean we wouldn't have online services that are as well implemented as we have today without MS, there's no denying that, but that really is all they care about.

And you see it in every facet of how they conduct business, from the games they choose to invest in, the deals they make, the trends they chase, the way they manage studios and develop games, and the way they market products to only the most wealthy, profitable and disposable income weilding markets and demographics. If it's not designed to make a profit, it's there to stop you giving money to someone else, and that's the extent of their ambitions.

Ironically though, that lack of passion and focus on money, just doesn't work in the entertainment business. It's the reason they consistently fail to make traction in the industry at large, see success only when direct competitors screw up, and end up sinking ungodly sums of money into investments that end up making them fall flat on their arses, because they simply don't have enough understanding of their potential audience to be able to accurately predict market trends.

They're not evil, they're not incompetent, and gods know Sony and Nintendo are just as capable of catastrophic misjudgements, but the fact is, Microsoft simply is not at home in the entertainment space, and it's really to their credit that they've stuck it out this long and had as much success as they had inspite of that.

But they are never going to be a perfect fit in the gaming industry, never have more wins than loses, and are never going to be able to truly understand and cater to the broader worldwide audiences that most game players are part of.

(Also, holy fuck did I just write a lot more than I initially expected to! Sorry for the wall of text there everyone!)

Microsoft is in it for the user metrics, not the money.
 

Welfare

Member
Switch VS Nintendo July 2017 Edition

First 5 Months
WII: 2110K
NSW: 1794K
DS: 1654K
WIU: 1076K
3DS: 922K

B = March Launch

Month # until DS/WIU/3DS get close/surpass current NSW sales
DS: Month 7 May 2005 = 1781K / Month 8 June 2005 = 1893K
3DS: Month 8 October 2011 = 1685K / Month 9 November 2011 = 2480K
WIU: Month 13 November 2013 = 1615K / Month 14 December 2013 = 2096K
 
Month # until DS/WIU/3DS get close/surpass current NSW sales
DS: Month 7 May 2005 = 1781K / Month 8 June 2005 = 1893K
3DS: Month 8 October 2011 = 1685K / Month 9 November 2011 = 2480K
WIU: Month 13 November 2013 = 1615K / Month 14 December 2013 = 2096K

i have no idea how to read this.

edit:
oh i got it now.
 

Zedark

Member
Switch VS Nintendo July 2017 Edition

First 5 Months
WII: 2110K
NSW: 1794K
DS: 1654K
WIU: 1076K
3DS: 922K

B = March Launch

Month # until DS/WIU/3DS get close/surpass current NSW sales
DS: Month 7 May 2005 = 1781K / Month 8 June 2005 = 1893K
3DS: Month 8 October 2011 = 1685K / Month 9 November 2011 = 2480K
WIU: Month 13 November 2013 = 1615K / Month 14 December 2013 = 2096K
Thanks for the data, really interesting! Were DS and WII mostly sold out still after 5 months?
 

Zedark

Member
i have no idea how to read this.
These are the months between which the respective systems surpass the current Switch number: DS for example passed it somewhere between the report of the 7th month and the report of the 8th month.

Edit: Sorry about the double post!
 

kswiston

Member
Thanks for the data, really interesting! Were DS and WII mostly sold out still after 5 months?

DS had a slow burn in the US at first I think. I can't remember when sales went nuts, but both it and the Wii had some crazy non-holiday months in 2007 I believe.
 

Gradivus

Member
Switch VS Nintendo July 2017 Edition

First 5 Months
WII: 2110K
NSW: 1794K
DS: 1654K
WIU: 1076K
3DS: 922K

B = March Launch

Month # until DS/WIU/3DS get close/surpass current NSW sales
DS: Month 7 May 2005 = 1781K / Month 8 June 2005 = 1893K
3DS: Month 8 October 2011 = 1685K / Month 9 November 2011 = 2480K
WIU: Month 13 November 2013 = 1615K / Month 14 December 2013 = 2096K
Was the DS having stock issues as well? Surprised to see the Switch surpassing, it given the stock issues.
 
Switch VS Nintendo July 2017 Edition

First 5 Months
WII: 2110K
NSW: 1794K
DS: 1654K
WIU: 1076K
3DS: 922K

B = March Launch

Month # until DS/WIU/3DS get close/surpass current NSW sales
DS: Month 7 May 2005 = 1781K / Month 8 June 2005 = 1893K
3DS: Month 8 October 2011 = 1685K / Month 9 November 2011 = 2480K
WIU: Month 13 November 2013 = 1615K / Month 14 December 2013 = 2096K

Man, Switch is doing great. Hopefully this continues into the holidays and Nintendo can really provide some ample stock.

Was the DS having stock issues as well? Surprised to see the Switch surpassing, it given the stock issues.

Not at this point in its life (mid 2005).
 

Welfare

Member
DS had a great launch holiday, but early 2005 had the PSP, which launched in March.

DS didn't pick up until the August 2005 price cut to $129 with Nintendogs, and even then didn't explode until the DS Lite launched in June 2006. So at this point, DS was just selling slow. Wii was selling out.
 

geordiemp

Member
The trouble with defending Nintendo's current situation with a simple 'it makes lots of dosh and that's all that matters' line of thinking, is that it completely ignores the wider picture, and dismisses the genuine questions people are increasingly raising over the long term health and wider appeal of the platform.

Simply squeezing more and more money out of a shrinking pool of dedicated fans, and quadrupling down on that existing, narrow demographic of mostly Japanese with the current moneymaking tricks and manipulative, anti consumer practices, negates any chance of even maintaining there audience long term, let alone expanding the business into new markets and appealing to different audiences.

You could say that about Nintendo, just for fun I edited your message to make a point.

Each publisher has their own market and fans, and each fan set likes to play doom on the other for some odd reason.

Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo are doing fine.
 
You could say that about Nintendo, just for fun I edited your message to make a point.

Each publisher has their own market and fans, and each fan set likes to play doom on the other for some odd reason.

Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo are doing fine.

Your edit also makes 0 sense in 2017, so I'm not sure what the point is.
 
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