NPD Sales Results for June 2014 [Up3: All Hardware (June/LTD), Top 10 Software SKUs]

May 24, 2012
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sörine;122456827 said:
3DS won't be carrying them alone, they're launching QOL and focusing on Wii U. The development support just isn't there to launch a new handheld in 2015, if 3DS decline really is that great a threat attempting to revitalize the current platform with pricing adjustments, hardware refreshes and/or new software development using their mature pipelines makes more sense.

For new platforms it's more likely to be QOL in 2015, nOS handheld in 2016, nOS console in 2017.
I mostly agree with this timeline (2015 QOL release + new handheld announcement, maybe early 2016 = new console release), although I would replace a new console in 2017 with a joint console + handheld launch in 2016...where the "console" is a cheap set-top box that plays the same games as the handhelds...just connected to the TV with the ability to use controllers.

I don't have faith that Nintendo will release a new console that has unique games from their new handheld. By releasing a cheap set top box, Nintendo doesn't have much to lose ecosystem-wise if Nintendo has another Wii U debacle on their hands.
 
Aug 24, 2011
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Given you don't know the cost and development timeline for a handheld console R&D, cost and development timeline for software for that hardware, cost and development timeline for hardware and software partnerships to support that hardware, or current nintendo financials, no, its not "common sense".

Its speculative guesswork.
You can see the current Nintendo financials every quarter and they are already in downward trend. Of course I don't know those other details but I know that they have done pretty much everything they can already with 3DS. Released all their heavy hitter games and even released cheaper model and yet 3DS is down compared to last year (In Japan especially the drop is huge) so it's past its peak. There will be another biggish drop next year without some kind of miracle and then drop in 2016. Then they have almost dead home console business that will not be turned around this gen. Maybe their original plan was 2016 release but they really need to make it 2015 if there is any way they can.
 
Feb 3, 2007
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it is entirely possible that they could release a 3ds successor next year. i think it's something they should do now that the platform is obviously in decline. it would need to follow the ds's timeline of announcing it a year beforehand, and showing it an e3 beforehand.
So TGS (I would say unlikely) or a surprise Nintendo Direct (I would say even more unlikely) with an E3 showing next year?

I mean, I suppose they could announce a successor at their investor conference next week... I just don't see it happening. It seems more likely they'll just let it spin down while they focus on getting WiiU profitable and launching QoL.

EDIT:
You can see the current Nintendo financials every quarter and they are already in downward trend. Of course I don't know those other details but I know that they have done pretty much everything they can already with 3DS.
Next week will provide at least some of that information. R&D costs tend to rise immediately prior to a platform launch, overall proftability of all divisions will be explicitly referenced, and how "almost dead" the WiiU is will also be covered.
 
Sep 1, 2013
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Except that the last hardware revision didn't help the 3DS and it will sell less than it did this year.
2DS isn't really an iterative revision though, it's supplementary. Just because 2DS didn't really move the needle much doesn't mean no possible other revision ever would.

I mostly agree with this timeline (2015 QOL release + new handheld announcement, maybe early 2016 = new console release), although I would replace a new console in 2017 with a joint console + handheld launch in 2016...where the "console" is a cheap set-top box that plays the same games as the handhelds...just connected to the TV with the ability to use controllers.

I don't have faith that Nintendo will release a new console that has unique games from their new handheld. By releasing a cheap set top box, Nintendo doesn't have much to lose ecosystem-wise if Nintendo has another Wii U debacle on their hands.
I tend to agree in a shared ecosystem with software across devices and I even think there may be more than just the traditional handheld/console model. From Iwata's comments I get the feeling we'll see more hardware than usual a la iOS (iPhone, iPad, iPod, Apple TV). I think we'll see them launch in stages though, with the familiar formfactor handheld first.
 
May 31, 2013
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sörine;122508685 said:
2DS isn't really an iterative revision though, it's supplementary. Just because 2DS didn't really move the needle much doesn't mean no possible other revision ever would.
Any thoughts on when a new 3DS hardware refresh might be a good bet? I'd like to get one but none of the current SKUs are nearly as attractive as the DSi was when it first came out, or even the DSlite for that matter :\
 
Sep 8, 2011
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I don't know what evidence you have to support that given Nintendos history of a first unveling of hardware at E3 1.5 years in advance, an in-depth examination at E3 0.5 years in advance and a release at the end of that E3 year.

Unless you think they're going to pull a Saturn.
Unless you think anyone is ever going to pull a Saturn ever again.
You are way off. What history?

DS was first revealed May 2004 at E3. Released that year.

There is no trend to back up your claims.
 
Feb 16, 2010
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I mostly agree with this timeline (2015 QOL release + new handheld announcement, maybe early 2016 = new console release), although I would replace a new console in 2017 with a joint console + handheld launch in 2016...where the "console" is a cheap set-top box that plays the same games as the handhelds...just connected to the TV with the ability to use controllers.

I don't have faith that Nintendo will release a new console that has unique games from their new handheld. By releasing a cheap set top box, Nintendo doesn't have much to lose ecosystem-wise if Nintendo has another Wii U debacle on their hands.
I'm with you on the 2016 Console and Handheld joint release... but my guess is you're thinking way outside of Nintendo's comfort zone. The two will probably talk to each other a bunch, maybe even a (gasp) unified account system, but definitely more traditional in terms of Console functionality. We'll see.
 
May 19, 2014
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I mostly agree with this timeline (2015 QOL release + new handheld announcement, maybe early 2016 = new console release), although I would replace a new console in 2017 with a joint console + handheld launch in 2016...where the "console" is a cheap set-top box that plays the same games as the handhelds...just connected to the TV with the ability to use controllers.

I don't have faith that Nintendo will release a new console that has unique games from their new handheld. By releasing a cheap set top box, Nintendo doesn't have much to lose ecosystem-wise if Nintendo has another Wii U debacle on their hands.
So...will it be handheld games on your TV or will it be console games on the handheld? What I mean is, will they focus more on making games geared toward handheld with the ability to play it on your TV through the set top box or will they be games that one would consider "full console games" that can also be played on the handheld? I was thinking more the latter, but I can see why they might go with the former.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
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theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Any thoughts on when a new 3DS hardware refresh might be a good bet? I'd like to get one but none of the current SKUs are nearly as attractive as the DSi was when it first came out, or even the DSlite for that matter :\
The one coming this Fall.

Nintendo 3DS Advance.
Better tech than normal 3DS, not that far from Vita's specs
NFC button integrated
Possibility to be used as a Wii U controller as well
Design being more reminiscent of DS Lite era
Around 4 inches top screen
Two colours at launch: Blue Sky, White Ice
169.99, OG goes to 129.99 and 2DS goes to 99.99
Launched with SSB in the West, MH in Japan

Yeah, in the case it's announced, I just want to see how much of this will be correct. Ready to be wrong on all fronts, though, first the fact there won't be a new 3DS revision :lol
 
May 31, 2013
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The one coming this Fall.

Nintendo 3DS Advance.
Better tech than normal 3DS, not that far from Vita's specs
NFC button integrated
Possibility to be used as a Wii U controller as well
Design being more reminiscent of DS Lite era
Around 4 inches top screen
Two colours at launch: Blue Sky, White Ice
169.99, OG goes to 129.99 and 2DS goes to 99.99
Launched with SSB in the West, MH in Japan

Yeah, in the case it's announced, I just want to see how much of this will be correct. Ready to be wrong on all fronts, though, first the fact there won't be a new 3DS revision :lol
That'd almost certainly get me. Wouldn't the higher specs you suggest lead to games only being playable on newer systems if games were to take advantage of said improved specs?
 
May 24, 2012
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I'm with you on the 2016 Console and Handheld joint release... but my guess is you're thinking way outside of Nintendo's comfort zone. The two will probably talk to each other a bunch, maybe even a (gasp) unified account system, but definitely more traditional in terms of Console functionality. We'll see.
Normally I'd be projecting more of a traditional approach, but Iwata really seems intent on shaking things up. More than usual.

And people at Nintendo are all too painfully aware about Wii U's dramatic underperformance. So maybe its failure will push the conservative company towards innovation they wouldn't have made otherwise.

I'm just extrapolating. You're right...it could very well possible that Nintendo will give another go at the traditional console approach.

So...will it be handheld games on your TV or will it be console games on the handheld? What I mean is, will they focus more on making games geared toward handheld with the ability to play it on your TV through the set top box or will they be games that one would consider "full console games" that can also be played on the handheld? I was thinking more the latter, but I can see why they might go with the former.
I expect that with the next console Nintendo will have reached somewhat of a graphical plateau...to avoid that vicious cycle of ballooning development costs.

So a way of upgrading graphic technology but also sidestepping the development cost cycle is to release a handheld with upgraded graphics that equal that of the Wii U and have those handheld games also playable on the console.

Maybe we'd see console-exclusive modes / features to promote dual-purchases, but in terms of 1st-party graphics I expect something similar to the GameCube -> Wii transition.

For example, you could release Mario Kart 9 on the handheld and play simultaneous online with people on the console.


sörine;122508685 said:
I tend to agree in a shared ecosystem with software across devices and I even think there may be more than just the traditional handheld/console model. From Iwata's comments I get the feeling we'll see more hardware than usual a la iOS (iPhone, iPad, iPod, Apple TV). I think we'll see them launch in stages though, with the familiar formfactor handheld first.

Yeah, the possibilities are endless. They could even release a QOL + console hybrid.
 
May 19, 2014
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I expect that with the next console Nintendo will have reached somewhat of a graphical plateau...to avoid that vicious cycle of ballooning development costs.

So a way of upgrading graphic technology but also sidestepping the development cost cycle is to release a handheld with upgraded graphics that equal that of the Wii U and have those handheld games also playable on the console.

Maybe we'd see console-exclusive modes / features to promote dual-purchases, but in terms of 1st-party graphics I expect something similar to the GameCube -> Wii transition.

For example, you could release Mario Kart 9 on the handheld and play simultaneous online with people on the console.
I can see that happening, I'm just more concerned that their games will get even smaller in scope and budget, etc. Maybe they'll be willing to take more risks with this approach though.

So just out of curiosity, in regards to the WiiU, is it general consensus that this will be it's best year in the US? I'm just curious to see what people think.
I'd also like to see what people think and how many Wii U's people think have been sold-through LTD. I think maybe 6.6 million.
 
Sep 1, 2013
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Any thoughts on when a new 3DS hardware refresh might be a good bet? I'd like to get one but none of the current SKUs are nearly as attractive as the DSi was when it first came out, or even the DSlite for that matter :
Maybe next spring in the west/this holiday in Japan. It might not even happen but 3DS is really overdue for it. They could easily do an iterative refresh that improves the formfactor, screen clarity and battery life with an eye towards improving profit. Those are the hallmarks for all their most successful revisions (GB Pocket, GBA SP, DS Lite). Then the next year follow it with an XL iteration. They need to put out a revision that demonstrates a clear upgrade path though, which is something the 3DS XL only half accomplished and the 2DS didn't at all.
 
Jun 2, 2005
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I'd be pretty surprised if the Wii U didn't get close to 2000k in the US this year. I think it'll pull a stronger holiday season than last year by a significant margin due to Mario Kart 8 and Super Smash Bros. I think 2015 might be flat yoy due to better sales year round but lower holiday sales (though if the price reaches a mass market point, that could help though nothing is going to completely change things for it).
 
Jul 29, 2010
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I'd be pretty surprised if the Wii U didn't get close to 2000k in the US this year. I think it'll pull a stronger holiday season than last year by a significant margin due to Mario Kart 8 and Super Smash Bros. I think 2015 might be flat yoy due to better sales year round but lower holiday sales (though if the price reaches a mass market point, that could help though nothing is going to completely change things for it).
Just some data posted from Aqua from a while back.
December sales
Wii:
2006 - 604K
2007 - 1350K
2008 - 2150K
2009 - 3810K
2010 - 2355K
2011 - 1060K
2012 - 472K

Nintendo's past Decembers with the GameCube:

2001 - 573K
2002 - 590K
2003 - 1158K
2004 - 796K
2005 - 606K

Wii U so far:
2012 - 463K
2013 - 481K
 
Feb 10, 2013
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I mostly agree with this timeline (2015 QOL release + new handheld announcement, maybe early 2016 = new console release), although I would replace a new console in 2017 with a joint console + handheld launch in 2016...where the "console" is a cheap set-top box that plays the same games as the handhelds...just connected to the TV with the ability to use controllers.

I don't have faith that Nintendo will release a new console that has unique games from their new handheld. By releasing a cheap set top box, Nintendo doesn't have much to lose ecosystem-wise if Nintendo has another Wii U debacle on their hands.
I'f you're right then count me out... i want beefier specs from Nintendo's next home console and for games to be separate from handheld games. I don't want no puny handheld masquerading as a home console... no siree.
 
I'f you're right then count me out... i want beefier specs from Nintendo's next home console and for games to be separate from handheld games. I don't want no puny handheld masquerading as a home console... no siree.
Iwata has said they aren't doing this, so don't expect it.

They will be able to run the same code which will make development seemless, much like the PC market, however they will likely be creating games exclusive to each device except for some key titles, such as smash.
 
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/140130qa/02.html Question 5

Iwata said:
When this happens, home consoles and handheld devices will no longer be completely different, and they will become like brothers in a family of systems.
Iwata said:
To cite a specific case, Apple is able to release smart devices with various form factors one after another because there is one way of programming adopted by all platforms. Apple has a common platform called iOS. Another example is Android. Though there are various models, Android does not face software shortages because there is one common way of programming on the Android platform that works with various models. The point is, Nintendo platforms should be like those two examples.
What you are referencing isn't "brothers" but more like a single device in different forms, such as DSi and DSiXL.
 
May 24, 2012
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http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/library/events/140130qa/02.html Question 5





What you are referencing isn't "brothers" but more like a single device in different forms, such as DSi and DSiXL.
I don't see any explicit language where Iwata directly says "We are releasing two distinct systems with major discrepancies in power and two sets of unique games.


In fact, this:

"However, we are hoping to change and correct the situation in which we develop games for different platforms individually and sometimes disappoint consumers with game shortages as we attempt to move from one platform to another, and we believe that we will be able to deliver tangible results in the future."

...gives credence to my projection that Nintendo will develop games that can be played on either the handheld or the console.
 
I don't see any explicit language where Iwata directly says "We are releasing two distinct systems with major discrepancies in power and two sets of unique games.


In fact, this:

"However, we are hoping to change and correct the situation in which we develop games for different platforms individually and sometimes disappoint consumers with game shortages as we attempt to move from one platform to another, and we believe that we will be able to deliver tangible results in the future."

...gives credence to my projection that Nintendo will develop games that can be played on either the handheld or the console.
Nintendo platforms should be like Android and (i)phone/pad/pod.

Iwata has said they aren't doing this, so don't expect it.

They will be able to run the same code which will make development seemless, much like the PC market, however they will likely be creating games exclusive to each device except for some key titles, such as smash.
While I might of overstated what he said, he mentions devices of various specs as examples to where Nintendo needs to go forward. also we are talking about the same thing if you look at my second paragraph, we just disagree at the execution.
 
May 19, 2014
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In fact, this:

"However, we are hoping to change and correct the situation in which we develop games for different platforms individually and sometimes disappoint consumers with game shortages as we attempt to move from one platform to another, and we believe that we will be able to deliver tangible results in the future."

...gives credence to my projection that Nintendo will develop games that can be played on either the handheld or the console.
Yea this is what I thought as well, but I also thought that the home console would be more powerful than the handheld so that with the console it would run the games in 1080p with some nice effects and post-processing with the handheld being a lower resolution and less effects, etc.
 
Yea this is what I thought as well, but I also thought that the home console would be more powerful than the handheld so that with the console it would run the games in 1080p with some nice effects and post-processing with the handheld being a lower resolution and less effects, etc.
Yes, this is what I think. Though I also think they will try to release titles that are exclusive to both here and there. (something like Zelda OoT and MM or Mario Galaxy 1 & 2)
 
Oct 18, 2012
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I don't know what evidence you have to support that given Nintendos history of a first unveling of hardware at E3 1.5 years in advance, an in-depth examination at E3 0.5 years in advance and a release at the end of that E3 year.

Unless you think they're going to pull a Saturn.
Unless you think anyone is ever going to pull a Saturn ever again.
This was certainly not true for Nintendo DS.

Your post is just literally assumption stacked upon assumption.
There is no evidence of a 3Ds successor being released next year.
There is no evidence against the contrary either.

Given you don't know the cost and development timeline for a handheld console R&D, cost and development timeline for software for that hardware, cost and development timeline for hardware and software partnerships to support that hardware, or current nintendo financials, no, its not "common sense".

Its speculative guesswork.
You don't know anything about Nintendo's R&D, timeline, roadmap, etc either. So this argument isn't valid for either side of the argument.
 
Apr 27, 2011
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I expect that with the next console Nintendo will have reached somewhat of a graphical plateau...to avoid that vicious cycle of ballooning development costs.

So a way of upgrading graphic technology but also sidestepping the development cost cycle is to release a handheld with upgraded graphics that equal that of the Wii U and have those handheld games also playable on the console.

Maybe we'd see console-exclusive modes / features to promote dual-purchases, but in terms of 1st-party graphics I expect something similar to the GameCube -> Wii transition.

For example, you could release Mario Kart 9 on the handheld and play simultaneous online with people on the console.
She gets it. This is pretty likely to happen.

Or at least close to it. I seriously doubt it will be fully up to par with last-gen hardware. More likely it will be somewhere between a Vita and a 360, but closer to the Vita.
 
She gets it. This is pretty likely to happen.

Or at least close to it. I seriously doubt it will be fully up to par with last-gen hardware. More likely it will be somewhere between a Vita and a 360, but closer to the Vita.
It's fairly likely that it will use AMD, which would crush Vita but we will know in a year or so.
 
Jul 12, 2012
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She gets it. This is pretty likely to happen.

Or at least close to it. I seriously doubt it will be fully up to par with last-gen hardware. More likely it will be somewhere between a Vita and a 360, but closer to the Vita.
You guys might be right, but damn. Imagine the meltdowns if Nintendo's next home console (even if it's part of a hybrid approach in which the handheld is the "same" hardware) is barely more powerful than a vita...
 
Sep 1, 2013
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You guys might be right, but damn. Imagine the meltdowns if Nintendo's next home console (even if it's part of a hybrid approach in which the handheld is the "same" hardware) is barely more powerful than a vita...
The "handheld" will be, the "console" will be upspecced enough to run the games at higher resolutions. And the handheld will still outperform last gen consoles in some respects.
 
May 24, 2012
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sörine;122600974 said:
The "handheld" will be, the "console" will be upspecced enough to run the games at higher resolutions. And the handheld will still outperform last gen consoles in some respects.
Yeah.

The key here is that the "console" and "handheld" will have the same assets...you know, like the equivalent of a Wii U game...so that Nintendo doesn't have to spend any more money bulking up their development teams even further.

I expect that, if the "console" ends up being more powerful, that extra power will be used towards rendering at a higher resolution and other effects like AA that don't hinder the ability to cross-play local / online multiplayer between the "handheld" and "console" systems.
 
May 24, 2012
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You can see the strength of Mario Kart 8, Watch_Dogs, UFC / FIFA, etc. represented in this month's publisher software marketshares.

Sony is down quite a bit due to last year's massively successful The Last Of Us launching.



Publisher Marketshare June 2013:

Sony - 23.5%

Nintendo - 16.4%

Electronic Arts - 8.1%

Take 2 - 8.0%

Ubisoft - 4.0%

Microsoft - 4.3%



Publisher Marketshare June 2014:

Nintendo - 19.7%
(up 16% from 2013)

Electronic Arts - 18.4%
(up 121% from 2013)

Ubisoft - 16.7%
(up 303% from 2013)

Activision Blizzard - 8.2%
(down 26% from 2013)

Take 2 Interactive - 6.1%
(down 26% from 2013)

Sony - 5.3%
(down 78% from 2013)
 
Feb 3, 2007
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You guys might be right, but damn. Imagine the meltdowns if Nintendo's next home console (even if it's part of a hybrid approach in which the handheld is the "same" hardware) is barely more powerful than a vita...
Do you think people that buy Nintendo platforms in order to play Nintendo titles honestly particularly care about hardware specs, or that people who only care about hardware specs (on consoles only, god forbid they buy a PC) honestly care about Nintendo titles?
 
Jan 20, 2013
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I feel like hybrid Nintendo system would be a bad idea and a catastrophe in making.

It wouldnt function as a proper handheld, so it would displease whatever is left of handheld market.

And it certainly would be too weak to be proper console, displeasing console market.

I can see them making games working ala Smash WiiU/3DS, or even with real system cross play. But I dont see them abandon both console and handheld market just to try out a hybrid.
 
We get any updated numbers on Wolfenstein?
No concrete numbers, likely somewhere around "a few million". It was marketed very well, but developed by a small team (~50), so it's likely that Bethesda considers it a small success and based on their previous statements, I'm hopeful for a sequel.

It's obviously done much better than Raven's did.

Apart from any financials and sales, Bethesda clearly considers the quality of the game a success. It sounds like they have confidence in MachineGames for the future.

“It went really well,” Hines added of The New Order’s reception. “If there is one disappointment it’s the number of people who are saying: ‘I am surprised how good it is.’ Because I tried for a very long time to tell people that this is not just another shooter. It’s good that it was better than people expected, but I’m like ‘I did tell you. I wasn’t bullshitting.’

“Let’s be honest, it was a bit of a tarnished brand. And we knew that. The last couple of games were either ‘ok’ or ‘not great’. It wasn’t a franchise where people were desperate for the next one. Wolfenstein isn’t Uncharted. We knew this would take some explaining. But developer Machine Games has now untarnished the IP.”
 
Oct 26, 2006
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www.robleydesign.com
No concrete numbers, likely somewhere around "a few million". It was marketed very well, but developed by a small team (~50), so it's likely that Bethesda considers it a small success and based on their previous statements, I'm hopeful for a sequel.

It's obviously done much better than Raven's did.

Apart from any financials and sales, Bethesda clearly considers the quality of the game a success. It sounds like they have confidence in MachineGames for the future.
Awesome so over a million? Game deserves it so much
 
Jul 29, 2010
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Well now that this thread got revived anyways, I have 2 (the third is about to on Monday) friends who bought Wii Us all this weekend (seems like Mario Kart 8 got them to), but 1 said the Best Buy he went to had sold out of Wii Us thanks to the $260 deal. Any insights Abdiel?