NPD Sales Results for March 2014 [Up4: FFX/X-2 HD]

Jun 13, 2012
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That's a really weird definition for failure. If someone is taking a marksmanship test, and doesn't hit a single target, we don't say he didn't fail because he avoided shooting himself in the head.
What if he was blind and a quadriplegic and suicidal?

Success/failure are relative and we cannot judge without knowing the internal metrics these companies use. We can use indirect things like firings, deep discounting, historical precedent, etc. and try to surmise things I suppose. That gets messy and gets people worked up.

I choose to use the coarse metric of did the console have games and will there be a next console with games because the evidence is clear and certain. It's not really that strange.
 
Sep 6, 2013
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Nope. And I dont think we will get any as the game sold not as good as Microsoft and maybe had hoped for.
Why do people keep saying this?

MS has no right to publish EA's numbers. Do you see MS announcing number for Battlefield or any other third party game? That is up to EA as they are the publisher. I assume you will hear them mention numbers during their next investor call.
 
Aug 5, 2011
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I would define a failed console as one that causes the manufacturer to leave the business. e.g. The vita is a failed console because Sony is leaving the handheld business.

The Wii U can severely under perform and not be considered a failure because it is certain that Nintendo will be releasing another home console as they have the money and the will.

The PS4 and X1 could sell substantially higher than the wii u and yet they could still be failures because Sony and Microsoft are not nearly as committed to games and consoles as Nintendo.

The fact is that we do not know what bar either Microsoft or Sony have set for their consoles. And as such, we do not know if they are succeeding or not.
I'd have to disagree with that. A device can fail without needing such dramatic impacts. Car manufactures have released cars that proved unpopular and they dont immediately drop out of producing cars. Likewise an individual console or device can fail wothout the company dropping out.

And while we of course dont know exact goals MS or Sony might have had its not too hard to estimate general goals from available info. To put it another way i think its pretty obvious PS4 is exceeding any expectations Sony might reasonably have had, outselling XB1 in every territory of note so far. Likewise while hardly a failure its not too hard to estimate XB1 is probably failing to meet certain MS ecpectations : rate of sale while solid seems to be below what they manufactured for and for sure MS wouldnt have expected to be trailing Sony in US & UK.

XB1 to date has sold more than 360 through the same timeframe so its far from some dismal failure, but its not just that its being beaten by PS4 so far that implies concerns (after all it could be XB1 is in line with expectations its just that PS4 is doing better) so much as the amount of stock on shelves, the fact TitanFall and the deals in March didnt seem to produce much of a spike (if any) in March and the indications that the PS4 success is starting to eat into potential rate of sale of XB1.
 

jcm

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Dec 8, 2008
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What if he was blind and a quadriplegic and suicidal?

Success/failure are relative and we cannot judge without knowing the internal metrics these companies use. We can use indirect things like firings, deep discounting, historical precedent, etc. and try to surmise things I suppose. That gets messy and gets people worked up.

I choose to use the coarse metric of did the console have games and will their be a next console with games because the evidence is clear and certain. It's not really that strange.
We don't need any internal metrics. Yes, it's relative, and yes, it's subjective, but that doesn't mean we can't call systems a failure if they don't blow up the company. The wii u has lost nintendo a bunch of money, and pissed away a ton of marketshare . It's a failure, by any reasonable definition. The PS3 did the same thing last gen, and it's a failure too. In general, consoles are supposed to make money and grow marketshare. When they don't, they are failed products.

If we were to use your criteria, we could never call a game a failure either, but we all know there's plenty of those.
 
Apr 15, 2010
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Good point. I'm sure PlayStation Plus also plays a role. Something like half of PS4 owners have a subscription, and they've been getting one free game to play a month since launch. They have recieved games they might have otherwise bought gratis, and they have more stuff to play without having to make a purchase.
Yeah and the service also provides PS3 and Vita games as well.
 
Jun 9, 2004
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Why do people keep saying this?

MS has no right to publish EA's numbers. Do you see MS announcing number for Battlefield or any other third party game? That is up to EA as they are the publisher. I assume you will hear them mention numbers during their next investor call.
*Little known fact : when Microsoft signed the Titanfall exclusivity contract with EA, they also negotiated exclusive sales bragging rights for the life of the product.

* not intended to be a factual statement.
 
Jun 13, 2012
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I'd have to disagree with that. A device can fail without needing such dramatic impacts. Car manufactures

/snip

a, we could never call a game a failure either, but we all know there's plenty of those.
Cars and games aren't consoles, so no I don't use 'did the car blow up the car company' for evaluation. I like to buy my cars from successful auto companies, and the some of the criteria I use include: safety, economy, warranty support, financial health of the company, reliability track record... BTW, my answer last time was Subaru. :)

We don't need any internal metrics. Yes, it's relative, and yes, it's subjective, but that doesn't mean we can't call systems a failure if they don't blow up the company. The wii u has lost nintendo a bunch of money, and pissed away a ton of marketshare . It's a failure, by any reasonable definition. The PS3 did the same thing last gen, and it's a failure too. In general, consoles are supposed to make money and grow marketshare. When they don't, they are failed products.

If we were to use your criteria, we could never call a game a failure either, but we all know there's plenty of those.
Again, this isn't a universal definition applicable to everything. & I'm not saying that my definition should be the definition; everyone is going to have their own, that is why it is messy and why I choose the simpler option in this instance.

And I think it is the right option. Take the ps3 as failure claim. Does that taking into account IBM screwing Sony and Toshiba when Bill Gates walked into the lead's office with a giant bag full of money? Or the billions MS risked getting to market first in an attempt to nuke the entirety of PS? The fact that the PS brand is still standing is a success, imo yadda yadda.
 
Aug 5, 2011
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Jun 25, 2011
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Why do you get that impression? From all the posts talking about it, it seems strictly US.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=108616458&postcount=4708

It's US only.

So yeah, impressive, probably 1.3 - 1.5m WW first month and that's worth shouting about, not sure why EA are staying tight lipped. perhaps they want to reach 5m shipped WW (all skus) before they announce a figure.
Seems odd if you sold 1.5m world wide and didn't make any announcement... none. Hell if they sold 1.5mil they could make an announcement about shipping over 2 million copies of the game. 2 Million for a brand new franchise is not bad at all. It doesn't make sense why they wouldn't announce anything unless the sales are less....

If they plan on waiting for 5million shipped they may be waiting until Titanfall 2's launch. The problem with online only games is when their communities start to dwindle no one buys the game.
 
Aug 5, 2011
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Seems odd if you sold 1.5m world wide and didn't make any announcement... none. Hell if they sold 1.5mil they could make an announcement about shipping over 2 million copies of the game. 2 Million for a brand new franchise is not bad at all. It doesn't make sense why they wouldn't announce anything unless the sales are less....

If they plan on waiting for 5million shipped they may be waiting until Titanfall 2's launch. The problem with online only games is when their communities start to dwindle no one buys the game.
They're not less tho, I mean that's not even factoring in 360 or PC. Fact is this is EA's news to announce and they want Titanfall compared to COD and Battlefield, not 3m sellers ...

We'll hear something at EA financials, shipped, and it'll be a good figure. (4m+ shipped.)
 
Feb 16, 2008
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Why do people keep saying this?

MS has no right to publish EA's numbers. Do you see MS announcing number for Battlefield or any other third party game? That is up to EA as they are the publisher. I assume you will hear them mention numbers during their next investor call.
Didn't MS publish Sony's numbers and indirectly disclose third party sales in December when they were chest thumping all over twitter about their NPD victory.


Why do you get that impression? From all the posts talking about it, it seems strictly US.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=108616458&postcount=4708

It's US only.

So yeah, impressive, probably 1.5m~ WW first month and that's worth shouting about, not sure why EA are staying tight lipped. perhaps they want to reach 5m shipped WW (all skus) before they announce a figure.
1.5 million seems a little much. Didn't only launch with about 130K in the UK including bundles. But it's probably past 1.5 million now so its a moot point. I too think they are waiting for 360 shipments to talk about total sales.

I think another reason they aren't talking about sales is because everyone will make a direct comparison to other games that are heralded as "the biggest game of the year" and it wouldn't look good in comparison although the sales are phenomenal most people don't know how to put things into context and will simple see x>>>>>y.
 
Aug 5, 2011
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Didn't MS publish Sony's numbers and indirectly disclose third party sales in December when they were chest thumping all over twitter about their NPD victory.




1.5 million seems a little much. Didn't only launch with about 130K in the UK including bundles. But it's probably past 1.5 million now so its a moot point. I too think they are waiting for 360 shipments to talk about total sales.
1m+ in US, 130k in UK first week then 60k in second week I believe? It was likely over 200k by end of March there. You're underestimating how much it has sold outside of US/UK, yes it's not huge but it's not nothing either.

People here have estimated the userbase is around 4.2m~ end of March WW, that's 2.5m US and 500k in the UK, leaves 1.2m for the rest of the world, basically 30%.

30% of 1.2m Titanfall is 360k. If we're assuming same attach rate (don't see why not?) = 1.5m~
 
Jun 25, 2011
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They're not less tho, I mean that's not even factoring in 360 or PC. Fact is this is EA's news to announce and they want Titanfall compared to COD and Battlefield, not 3m sellers ...

We'll hear something at EA financials, shipped, and it'll be a good figure. (4m+ shipped.)
If they were targeting COD numbers with a brand new franchise they went about it the wrong way. You want to maximize platforms not make the game more exclusive. It is counterintuitive to think that Titanfall being Xbox Exclusive would even get near the sales of any of the past generations sales. Even cut in half...

They should just announce something like "We sold more than 2x Infamous!" or something. Brand new franchises (in general) don't get anywhere close to established franchises... so that would be a big boon in its own right.
 
Aug 5, 2011
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If they were targeting COD numbers with a brand new franchise they went about it the wrong way. You want to maximize platforms not make the game more exclusive. It is counterintuitive to think that Titanfall being Xbox Exclusive would even get near the sales of any of the past generations sales. Even cut in half...

They should just announce something like "We sold more than 2x Infamous!" or something. Brand new franchises (in general) don't get anywhere close to established franchises... so that would be a big boon in its own right.
I agree, but didn't MS save it from being dumped completely? Sounds like they perhaps had no choice but to go exclusive ...

And even then, why could they not aim for COD/Battlefield 360 sales (which is 10m+)?, I mean I never thought it would get that high, low userbase and everything, but still. I'm not saying they expected 20m~ ... but around 5m on XB1 by the end of this year and maybe 4m on 360 is what they hoped for, realistic or not.
 
Aug 30, 2009
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MS make a slight profit on Xbox One hardware and Sony make a loss (probably small judging by reports) but then you have to factor in Kinect too.
MS was making a slight profit when the X1 was at it's original price of $500.
No way are they making money on it now , it should be worst in places like UK where price drop works out to more than $50 like it is in usa.
 
Aug 5, 2011
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MS was making a slight profit when the X1 was at it's original price of $500.
No way are they making money on it now , it should be worst in places like UK where price drop works out to more than $50 like it is in usa.
What's that got to do with BOM? My point was without Kinect XB1 could be cheaper to manufacture than PS4 given MS are making a profit at $500 (suggesting it costs under $500 with kinect) and PS4 makes a loss at $400 suggesting it costs more than $400 to build.
 
Jun 25, 2011
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I agree, but didn't MS save it from being dumped completely? Sounds like they perhaps had no choice but to go exclusive ...

And even then, why could they not aim for COD/Battlefield 360 sales (which is 10m+)?, I mean I never thought it would get that high, low userbase and everything, but still. I'm not saying they expected 20m~ ... but around 5m on XB1 by the end of this year and maybe 4m on 360 is what they hoped for, realistic or not.
I honestly don't think it is going to have those kind of legs. I'd be glad to be wrong, because a healthy Xbox One means healthy competition for the PS4. More competition means better prices. However, I think many of the people planning to buy the Xbox One have already done so. $50 price cut... 2 free games at this point (Forza, Titanfall); If that is not attacting the crowd that wants to play Titanfall I don't know what to say.

The alternatives are 360 (which is amazing in its own right); and PC. I think in order to get the kind of sales you are shooting for it will need a huge pickup in sales, and we are nearing mid year where there tends to be a sales drought.

End of year will be another COD stealing sales from Titanfall. The outlook is just not that great if you are hoping to sell 3 million more games in the next few months, during the worst part of the year for game sales.

Also EA should have alighned their sales predictions with the potential reduction of customers when they "saved" the project with Microsoft. I'm glad the game didn't die as it seems to have lots of potential... it just needs to drop the last generation hardware from the equation.
 
Aug 5, 2011
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I honestly don't think it is going to have those kind of legs. I'd be glad to be wrong, because a healthy Xbox One means healthy competition for the PS4. More competition means better prices. However, I think many of the people planning to buy the Xbox One have already done so. $50 price cut... 2 free games at this point (Forza, Titanfall); If that is not attacting the crowd that wants to play Titanfall I don't know what to say.

The alternatives are 360 (which is amazing in its own right); and PC. I think in order to get the kind of sales you are shooting for it will need a huge pickup in sales, and we are nearing mid year where there tends to be a sales drought.

End of year will be another COD stealing sales from Titanfall. The outlook is just not that great if you are hoping to sell 3 million more games in the next few months, during the worst part of the year for game sales.

Also EA should have alighned their sales predictions with the potential reduction of customers when they "saved" the project with Microsoft. I'm glad the game didn't die as it seems to have lots of potential... it just needs to drop the last generation hardware from the equation.
Yeah I don't think it will either, I don't honestly think anything coming will be the 'new cod' not Titanfall, not Destiny ect. They'll do well for sure, but not COD well.

Titanfall would do well to be a 10m+ seller across PS4/XB1 in the future tho, these publishers need to lower their expectations.
 
Aug 30, 2009
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What's that got to do with BOM? My point was without Kinect XB1 could be cheaper to manufacture than PS4 given MS are making a profit at $500 (suggesting it costs under $500 with kinect) and PS4 makes a loss at $400 suggesting it costs more than $400 to build.
You would be wrong every breakdown i see has X1 BOM costing more to make than PS4 if we take out Kinect .

EDIT after some checking X1 is $471 for BOM and PS4 $381 BOM but i see conflicting reports on certain things .
 
Aug 5, 2011
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You would be wrong every breakdown i see has X1 BOM costing more to make than PS4 if we take out Kinect .

EDIT after some checking X1 is $471 for BOM and PS4 $381 BOM but i see conflicting reports on certain things .
Kinect must be cheap as chips then ..... if that doesn't include Kinect then I don't believe you tbh. No way MS can be making a profit on hardware and Sony not at those BOM rates.
 
Aug 30, 2009
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I thought the slightly higher cost of the APU was more than offset by the more expensive (currently) GDDR5? So that the PS4 was the more expensive machine? Xbox only became more expensive overall when you included kinect.
Yeah i just check and i see conflicting reports on certain things like power brick prices for eg .

Kinect must be cheap as chips then ..... if that doesn't include Kinect then I don't believe you tbh. No way MS can be making a profit on hardware and Sony not at those BOM rates.
From what i reading neither suppose to make money on hardware since there are retail cuts and shipping to take into account .
Yusuf Mehdi says it break even or low margin at worst but that must be taking into account exchange rates.

EDIT kinect suppose to cost $75 to make so if you take that away from $471 you get $396 so the X1 does cost more .
So that is what i was talking about , so it was thanks to higher price and exchanges rates MS could break even it not that way for sure anymore .
 
Jun 25, 2011
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Yeah i just check and i see conflicting reports on certain things like power brick prices for eg .



From what i reading neither suppose to make money on hardware since there are retail cuts and shipping to take into account .
Yusuf Mehdi says it break even or low margin at worst but that must be talking into account exchange rates.
Yeah that was before they bundled games in, so they are losing money at this point for sure. Sony is as well, but I think they said they lose less than 1 game worth so $60~ (perhaps they said marginal loss? It has been a long time since I read). Not bad considering how much they lost on the PS3's launch. The Playstation Division should be in the green this time for sure, once you throw PS+ into the equation.
 
Aug 5, 2011
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Yeah that was before they bundled games in, so they are losing money at this point for sure. Sony is as well, but I think they said they lose less than 1 game worth so $60~ (perhaps they said marginal loss? It has been a long time since I read). Not bad considering how much they lost on the PS3's launch. The Playstation Division should be in the green this time for sure, once you throw PS+ into the equation.
Kind of a turnaround when you have PS and XB barely losing cash but Nintendo are still making a loss on WiiU and their gaming division in general so far this gen, they've had a year head start as well ...
 
Aug 18, 2007
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Titanfall 360, from Amazon - not resellers, is selling for $37 before it's even launched.

I have no idea what in the world this means. I can't recall this ever happening.
 
Dec 12, 2006
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Good point. I'm sure PlayStation Plus also plays a role. Something like half of PS4 owners have a subscription, and they've been getting one free game to play a month since launch. They have recieved games they might have otherwise bought gratis, and they have more stuff to play without having to make a purchase.
ps3/ps4 + Plus.... I have pretty much stopped buying games. I just don't see any value in buying new games anymore. For me anyway.
 
May 24, 2012
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We'll get something when they report earnings in May.



I think he said about a million, including the bundles, not including PC.
So did we get any Titanfall numbers?
Nope. And I dont think we will get any as the game sold not as good as Microsoft and maybe had hoped for.
I thought the "about a million" was worldwide, not US only.
We have two numbers for Titanfall NPD:

~865K (I said this)

>1 million (Creamsugar said this)

It's up to you to determine what those numbers are referring to.
 
Jan 25, 2010
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Microsoft aren't making a profit off of each Xbox One console sold at all. From what I heard, they're only breaking even off of each X1 sold.
I severely doubt they are even breaking even with each console.

Especially now that it has had a price drop and with all the bundles.

I wouldn't be surprised if they were losing money hand over fist from the hardware at present.
 
Jun 2, 2013
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Yeah that was before they bundled games in, so they are losing money at this point for sure. Sony is as well, but I think they said they lose less than 1 game worth so $60~ (perhaps they said marginal loss? It has been a long time since I read). Not bad considering how much they lost on the PS3's launch. The Playstation Division should be in the green this time for sure, once you throw PS+ into the equation.
I believe PS4 is profitable after 1 accesory or game or PS+ sub, even a third party game, so the PS4 probably has total unit costs of around $410, which is immediately recouped by the $399 and the $10-15 Sony makes from third party retail games.

EDIT: also it was said the XB1 was slightly profitable at $499 with no pack in game, so they're definitely losing money at $449 with titanfall.
 
Jul 19, 2013
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What's that got to do with BOM? My point was without Kinect XB1 could be cheaper to manufacture than PS4 given MS are making a profit at $500 (suggesting it costs under $500 with kinect) and PS4 makes a loss at $400 suggesting it costs more than $400 to build.
The reason that it is speculated that the XboxOne costs more than the PS4 even without Kinect (source) is because of the ESRAM and its effect on the APU (CPU+GPU) chip size.

The PS4 APU size is 348 square mm (source), compared to the XboxOne's APU size of 363 square mm (source).

Look at these scans of the APU and you can see how much space the ESRAM takes, and that's even after cutting out six of the CUs from the GPU. PS4 and XboxOne APU scans.
 
Sep 5, 2013
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I believe PS4 is profitable after 1 accesory or game or PS+ sub, even a third party game, so the PS4 probably has total unit costs of around $410, which is immediately recouped by the $399 and the $10-15 Sony makes from third party retail games.

EDIT: also it was said the XB1 was slightly profitable at $499 with no pack in game, so they're definitely losing money at $449 with titanfall.
All this talk of profit and loss is a bit silly really, they will have a parts cost, manufacturing cost, and then the indirect costs of development and personnel overhead...

So both consoles are probably 'profitable' with costs to make, but may take a year or so of sales and software royalties to make up for development and indirect costs of these launches.

I think any business guy is going to tell the gamer they loose money, but they will tell investors a different angle....

We will never know until the year end financials only if they are broken down by product line....otherwise some people will 'infer' whats going on...
 
Jun 2, 2013
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All this talk of profit and loss is a bit silly really, they will have a parts cost, manufacturing cost, and then the indirect costs of development and personnel overhead...

So both consoles are probably 'profitable' with costs to make, but may take a year or so of sales and software royalties to make up for development and indirect costs of these launches.

I think any business guy is going to tell the gamer they loose money, but they will tell investors a different angle....

We will never know until the year end financials only if they are broken down by product line....otherwise some people will 'infer' whats going on...
Well, public statements made by Execs need to be truthful, so when execs say they are breaking even or making a very small loss that is recovered with the first purchase we can take that as fact, as it is a public statement that may influence investments. In the long run both consoles will of course be profitable, per unit, but we are of course talking about day 1 income and expenses here, as in all of the variable costs that scale with the number of units produced, such as BoM, shipping, retailers/distributors cuts etc.

no one can say whether or not each unit is actually profitable as we don't know how much R+D needs to be recovered per unit as we don't know the lifetime sales.
 
Dec 14, 2010
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Good point. I'm sure PlayStation Plus also plays a role. Something like half of PS4 owners have a subscription, and they've been getting one free game to play a month since launch. They have recieved games they might have otherwise bought gratis, and they have more stuff to play without having to make a purchase.
I actually think you have a good point. It's completely logical that the PlayStation brand is having better digital sales since they are actually competing pricewise when compared to Steam Sale and mobile prices. No only is there the Instant Game Collection, but there is the 99¢ Flash Sale that happened recently. Sony has shown a willingness to actually compete with PC and mobile... in its own way.
 
Sep 5, 2013
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Well, public statements made by Execs need to be truthful, so when execs say they are breaking even or making a very small loss that is recovered with the first purchase we can take that as fact, as it is a public statement that may influence investments. In the long run both consoles will of course be profitable, per unit, but we are of course talking about day 1 income and expenses here, as in all of the variable costs that scale with the number of units produced, such as BoM, shipping, retailers/distributors cuts etc.

no one can say whether or not each unit is actually profitable as we don't know how much R+D needs to be recovered per unit as we don't know the lifetime sales.
Exactly, what does profitable even mean ? Do you account for R&D, marketing, software development, software royalties they get for every sale, PSN and live money..

If they don't define it exactly and its just an interview, they can choose whatever they like...Hence why I scoffed at the discussion, its meaningless.