SwiftDeath
Member
I talk too much lol
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NPD Sales Results for March 2014 [Up4: FFX/X-2 HD]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
I talk too much lol
theprodigy
Member
actually, we might as well have fun with this and do some Microsoft Math on it
Aquamarine
Member
Wall of shame:
I guess you beat me this time. ;-)
It's funny because I don't post all that consistently throughout the month...then I post a whole lot in NPD threads and my Posts Per Day count jumps right back up.
SwiftDeath
Member
Yeah but your posts in NPD threads are quality while mine are well not so much
Psh. You both make excellent posts, with plenty of helpful, informative details...
The REAL reason you both have so many posts in this thread is from all the people who don't bother to reference back to your previous posts! So you have a ton of reposts to help people stay caught up. Haha!
Apophis2036
Banned
That was an eBay seller with no advertising... Now imagine a $249 MK8 bundle with Nintendo's full marketing might behind it.
Yeah but your posts in NPD threads are quality while mine are well not so much
Rubbish. I appreciate both your posts just as much.
ethomaz
Banned
This is interesting because from what I remember the US tie ratio was bigger than the rest of the world tie ratio last gen... that increase the possibility of digital sales to be bigger than 3.5m and the US tie ratio for retail + digital is something higher than 3.
I do believe digital sales are way bigger than most believes here... mainly in US where a lot of guys are going digital only this gen.
Dragonborn
Member
I agree with this, in a way discussing X1 WW performance is useless. One look at the PAL charts will show you that outside the UK, the thing is completely dead. For MS, NPD is the be all, end all now. They fail here and that's it for them. So in that case, yea, NPD is pretty much all that matters right now for the X1
Wall of shame:
I guess you beat me this time. ;-)
It's funny because I don't post all that consistently throughout the month...then I post a whole lot in NPD threads and my Posts Per Day count jumps right back up.
I guess by sheer word count, Amir0x's 53 trounces everyone else?
SwiftDeath
Member
There are 26 posts by Senju, TWENTY SIX. THE FIGHT IS REAL!
Wall of shame:
I guess you beat me this time. ;-)
It's funny because I don't post all that consistently throughout the month...then I post a whole lot in NPD threads and my Posts Per Day count jumps right back up.
Boy just look at my lack of shame.
Haha! What the hell are you doing at the top anyway?
SwiftDeath
Member
Well some large portion of them are linking previous Aqua posts
Otherwise I can't really remember..
Liabe Brave
Member
While their sales are good, there's still room for worry. Yes, in the U.S. Microsoft has moved 710k pieces more at retail than Sony. However, we know ~400k of that is Titanfall vs. Infamous alone. And the remainder is unlikely to be multiplatform games; instead, it's very probably due to their larger/stronger lineup of exclusives. Overall we're talking Ryse, Dead Rising, Forza, Zoo Tycoon, and Garden Warfare against Knack, Killzone, and Injustice. To be only ~300k ahead in that confrontation is not very impressive. (Indeed, it likely indicates that on multiplat games, PS4 has a higher attach rate than Xbox One!)
Adding to the issue is the fact that One's extra sales have been bought at a cost over and above base production/marketing budgets. Ryse had to be extensively retooled and rebuilt from a 360 Kinect game; Capcom would've been paid some amount for Microsoft to assume publication of Dead Rising; and EA was paid for an exclusivity window on PvZ. Plus of course there's the exclusivity contract and unusually large marketing spend on Titanfall. Such a wide-fronted push isn't sustainable longterm for Microsoft unless they're willing to drive the platform unprofitable to maintain market share.
Why is EA so silent? Even if this aren't megaton numbers, they are still pretty good numbers, aren't they? Or they had totally exorbitant expectations.
Well, probably at E3.
Aquamarine
Member
Random tidbit of NPD data:
Total Console (PS4, XBO, WIU, PS3, 360, Wii) Software Sales: $5.3428 billion (2013)
(-7% from 2012)
Percentage:
PS3 / PS4: 36.9%
(+11% from 2012)
360 / XBO: 51.0%
(-8% from 2012)
Wii / WIU: 12.0%
(-33% from 2012)
Total Console (PS4, XBO, WIU, PS3, 360, Wii) Software Sales: $5.3428 billion (2013)
(-7% from 2012)
Percentage:
PS3 / PS4: 36.9%
(+11% from 2012)
360 / XBO: 51.0%
(-8% from 2012)
Wii / WIU: 12.0%
(-33% from 2012)
ethomaz
Banned
MS is loosing ground in US... 2014 will be more neck to neck than these 51% vs 37%.
BTW the "free" TF bundle copies is not counted for software revenue?
Edit - fixed.
These numbers are for retail though, not including digital sales. PC likely had very little impact on these totals. What I'm curious is if the totals were even close to Second Son, and how much an impact the extra week of sales had.
I think it'd do a little more than a $300 MK8 bundle with Nintendo's full marketing might behind it.
But it'd be sold for $50 less, and I doubt the increased sales would be sustained for long enough to warrant doing it.
I don't think price is currently the problem. It's just not attractive period. Maybe at Chirstmas with Smash, Hyrule, X, Bayo 2 out, then a drop $250 might help. ( I doubt both X and Bayo 2 will come this year though).
ethomaz
Banned
It is safe to say TF on Xbone outsold ISS by at least 2:1 in US... we are looking at ~500k and ~1m in retail.
theprodigy
Member
Aquamarine
Member
Correct.
I'm just going to use the last reporting month for a few more tidbits.
February 2014 NPD (the month before Titanfall)
Total console (PS4, XBO, WIU, PS3, 360, Wii) software sales: $277.6 million
(-8% from last year)
PS3 / PS4 marketshare: 39.7%
(+4% from last year)
360 / XBO marketshare: 47.1%
(-13% from last year)
Wii / WIU marketshare: 13.1%
(-18% from last year)
So far in 2014, PlayStation and Xbox ecosystems are getting pretty close in terms of sales. The Xbox ecosystem is just nudging out the PlayStation ecosystem, though.
And the two consoles are slowly taking over total video game sales:
PS4 + XBO -> 21% of total video game software sales in November
PS4 + XBO -> 22% of total video game software sales in December
PS4 + XBO -> 30% of total video game software sales in January
PS4 + XBO -> 27% of total video game software sales in February
And, Xbox 360 is more resilient than PS3 to getting replaced by the current-gen.
For example:
February 2014 NPD:
Xbox One -> 49% of Xbox 360 software sales
PS4 -> 63% of PS3 software sales
ethomaz
Banned
Ohhhh thanks.
This is good... more this gen sales and less last gen is good... well the market needs migrate to PS4, Xbone and of course Wii U (sad this last one is not happening).
If my theory about there being massive drop-offs for one or both consoles in April is true, then I think the next NPD thread will be just as long or longer...
Aquamarine
Member
Do you perhaps have any retail evidence for that perhaps? ;-)
Or is it really just a theory?
ethomaz
Banned
Drops will happen due a 4 weeks month and no big release but it won't be massive... both consoles will be confortable over 200k in my view.
PS4 can even reach 300k because it will be the first month with full supply in US.
disastermouse
Banned
Who buys PC games retail anymore?
ethomaz
Banned
I guess box collectors lol
Serious at least some 50-100k guys buy retail games on PC if the game is big... you can estimate around 10% of the sales or a little less.
Aquamarine
Member
shinra-bansho
Member
There are typically big drop-offs in April. Although I imagine there'll still be a lot of freak outs to drive the size of the next thread.
@Nirolak, I think that's a really great analogy.
Also, I'm not sure if anyone else noticed but it's interesting to note that Titanfall mayhave had a negative effect on CoD. PS4 has leapfrogged it in platform ordering. Although it could just be that new owners, post-supply issues, are picking up the title and that's pushed the PS4 SKU higher.
----
RE: A $250 Wii U. If there were substantial numbers of shoppers out there, well into or past their information search, waiting for a cheaper Wii U, then the price drop last year would have had a more sustained and more substantial effect. Regular retailer fire-sales in Europe would have seen more of an effect.
In terms of value proposition, price is one issue. But there are plenty of others. For instance, a purchase of the Wii U compared to pretty much any of the other home systems, bar the Wii, has higher risk of obsolescence. The system doesn't exist in a vacuum.
It still boils down to: who is the potential customer and why do they want/need a Wii U? Why should they buy it over alternatives?
Is it people looking for an upgrade to their 360 or PS3? The HW simply isn't a sufficient upgrade. And as noted above, there's risk the system won't really provide functional and experiential value for the duration of the next cycle.
Is it budget-conscious late HD adopters looking for a cheap system with lots of software, akin to those buying PS2s last gen? The 360 and PS3 have larger libraries at a cheaper entry. And are still getting more software announcements despite replacement.
I've seen people pose the idea of people looking for a secondary system. And again, as a generality people don't want multiple consoles ultimately serving the same purpose. And having Nintendo's first party output, or any of their first party output, doesn't really fly with me as something that's sufficient to drive this secondary purchase.
Unless someone absolutely needs a box just to play Nintendo's games there's no real incentive to buy a Wii U at $300, at $250, at $200, at $150. And this someone is already buying the system.
@Nirolak, I think that's a really great analogy.
Are you talking WW or US, as I've largely been referring to the US. And I don't think we're in for a 60M unit contraction. On the matter of the contraction, or perhaps correction, I think we're largely past the worst of it, as both the music and motion bubble are really no longer in play.
I think it's game specific on this point. Assassin's Creed for instance probably has a better PS4 attach rate, CoD Ghosts is higher in both absolute terms and attach rate on the XBO I believe.
Also, I'm not sure if anyone else noticed but it's interesting to note that Titanfall mayhave had a negative effect on CoD. PS4 has leapfrogged it in platform ordering. Although it could just be that new owners, post-supply issues, are picking up the title and that's pushed the PS4 SKU higher.
----
RE: A $250 Wii U. If there were substantial numbers of shoppers out there, well into or past their information search, waiting for a cheaper Wii U, then the price drop last year would have had a more sustained and more substantial effect. Regular retailer fire-sales in Europe would have seen more of an effect.
In terms of value proposition, price is one issue. But there are plenty of others. For instance, a purchase of the Wii U compared to pretty much any of the other home systems, bar the Wii, has higher risk of obsolescence. The system doesn't exist in a vacuum.
It still boils down to: who is the potential customer and why do they want/need a Wii U? Why should they buy it over alternatives?
Is it people looking for an upgrade to their 360 or PS3? The HW simply isn't a sufficient upgrade. And as noted above, there's risk the system won't really provide functional and experiential value for the duration of the next cycle.
Is it budget-conscious late HD adopters looking for a cheap system with lots of software, akin to those buying PS2s last gen? The 360 and PS3 have larger libraries at a cheaper entry. And are still getting more software announcements despite replacement.
I've seen people pose the idea of people looking for a secondary system. And again, as a generality people don't want multiple consoles ultimately serving the same purpose. And having Nintendo's first party output, or any of their first party output, doesn't really fly with me as something that's sufficient to drive this secondary purchase.
Unless someone absolutely needs a box just to play Nintendo's games there's no real incentive to buy a Wii U at $300, at $250, at $200, at $150. And this someone is already buying the system.
Aquamarine
Member
On April 10th, Nintendo corporate headquarters gave out the following information:
Nintendo Full Year Earnings Release:
May 7th, 2014 at 03:00 AM EDT
Nintendo Full Year Earnings Presentation + Q&A
May 7th, 2014 at 9:00 PM EDT
As always, the Presentation + Q&A will be at:
Hotel New Otani Tokyo
4-1 Kioi-cho, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo 102- 8578
JP
ethomaz
Banned
Thanks Aqua.
It seems late? Maybe they are taking their time developing strategies for the new year.
ethomaz
Banned
Fiscal year results are always late... Sony is May 14th... MS is early because it is a normal quarter (Q3).
About these tie ratios (especially globally): I suppose the difference is pretty easy to understand with a simple statistical analysis.
Something like 70% of all sold-through Xbox Ones were sold during 2013. Conversely, for PS4 the figure is 60%. Proportionally, PS4 has sold more during this year, and since every console sold reduces the tie ratio, this can easily explain the one percentage point difference.
Furthermore, early adopters are more likely to spend more on games (OK, everybody who owns a PS4 or Xbox One at this point is an early adopter), and the absolutely first wave is probably responsible for a significant portion of video games spending. So, selling a lot in the first month and a bit less on the next couple of months is better for tie ratio than selling a lot in the first month and pretty much on the next couple of months.
Of course, we are so early into this console cycle that tie ratio is not a good metric for success. This is the time to grab market share.
Something like 70% of all sold-through Xbox Ones were sold during 2013. Conversely, for PS4 the figure is 60%. Proportionally, PS4 has sold more during this year, and since every console sold reduces the tie ratio, this can easily explain the one percentage point difference.
Furthermore, early adopters are more likely to spend more on games (OK, everybody who owns a PS4 or Xbox One at this point is an early adopter), and the absolutely first wave is probably responsible for a significant portion of video games spending. So, selling a lot in the first month and a bit less on the next couple of months is better for tie ratio than selling a lot in the first month and pretty much on the next couple of months.
Of course, we are so early into this console cycle that tie ratio is not a good metric for success. This is the time to grab market share.
Brad Grenz
Member
Good point. I'm sure PlayStation Plus also plays a role. Something like half of PS4 owners have a subscription, and they've been getting one free game to play a month since launch. They have recieved games they might have otherwise bought gratis, and they have more stuff to play without having to make a purchase.
So software is down year-on-year software? I know digital is eating into retail more and more, but it is still is somewhat worrying seeing how we just had such a strong next gen hardware launch.
We could potentially see a generation where hardware does well but retail games do poorly -not ideal of the devs and publishers. I know we are in early stages yet, but if the dev costs keep going up and the sales go down, it will be a tough spot for EAs and Activisions of this world.
I am sure Nintendo's situation affects this a lot though, and I bet the year-on-year handheld software sales are not that cheerful.
We could potentially see a generation where hardware does well but retail games do poorly -not ideal of the devs and publishers. I know we are in early stages yet, but if the dev costs keep going up and the sales go down, it will be a tough spot for EAs and Activisions of this world.
I am sure Nintendo's situation affects this a lot though, and I bet the year-on-year handheld software sales are not that cheerful.
anonymous_abc
Member
As long as digital holds up, and we have no reason to believe otheriwse, I see no reason to worry about the fall of retail games.
Nope. And I dont think we will get any as the game sold not as good as Microsoft and maybe had hoped for.
Well, it's not even up to MS to spill the numbers it's EA, and I was more thinking leaks from Cream.
We'll get something when they report earnings in May.
I think he said about a million, including the bundles, not including PC.
From my perspective, as a consumer, yes. Both systems had games and both systems had successors, so not failed.
All I was emphasizing is that success and failure are relative terms and as outsiders, we have no way of gauging things aside from what I wrote: were there games and was there a successor system with games. The rest is just so much talk. Imho, yadda yadda...
shinra-bansho
Member
This is a particularly tough year/year comparison. Last year had Bioshock Infinite, Tomb Raider, Gears of War: Judgement and God of War: Ascension, all selling 600K+. There was a strong 3DS release in Luigi's Mansion: Dark Moon. Less blockbusters, and excluding Titanfall, smaller blockbusters.
And even without that, there were about twice as many new releases last March - that's probably the primary culprit.
That's a really weird definition for failure. If someone is taking a marksmanship test, and doesn't hit a single target, we don't say he didn't fail because he avoided shooting himself in the head.