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NPD Sales Results for March 2015 [Up1: Nintendo numbers, PS4 placing]

spatenfloot

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Jun 7, 2013
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Spoke too soon I suppose :^/

I wish a lot of Juniors knew how to be more conservative until their Junior period is up. No reason to put your account at risk trying to make a statement.
Nope, you could see it coming from the first post. It actually happens a lot. Someone with an agenda starts posting like crazy the second the account is approved, hoping to change everyone's mind in the few hours of life that they have. Mayflies, so tragic.
 

Biker19

Banned
Apr 1, 2013
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Spoke too soon I suppose :^/

I wish a lot of Juniors knew how to be more conservative until their Junior period is up. No reason to put your account at risk trying to make a statement.

They just can't help themselves. Plus people like Theodore Pewd gets angry when they can't handle the truth.
 

On Demand

Member
Dec 12, 2013
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Your on the wrong page for both. WM has a console page, ill post that one later with a PC.

This is target: http://www.target.com/tdir/p/electronics/-/N-5xtg6/Nao-0/Ns-bestselling

Nah. What his link does is narrow the results down to consoles EDIT- videogames- so you don't have to go through every single product. You can see the WiiU and XB1 positions are the same. The PS4 is not there on that page for some reason. Unless electronics and videogames are counted somewhat differently.

Looks like you won't be able to respond to this.
 

kpaadet

Member
Jun 22, 2013
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See how this thread is already slowly dying because Scientificreason and Theodore Pewd are gone. I hope you're all happy!!!
Because I sure am.
 

Kill3r7

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Jun 19, 2014
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Their greatest contribution to the thread was getting us back on topic from the prolonged 1886 discussion.
 

Apathy

Member
Nov 24, 2013
12,477
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Never change GAF. Hours of amazing entertainment all for free. I should give back by getting GAF Gold
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
May 23, 2013
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We've gone from reading too much into Amazon charts we barely understand to reading Target and Walmart charts we don't understand at all.

Zhuge pls, save us.

Those guys were starting to annoy me. Thankfully they've been banned.

I Just stopped posting in the microsoft thread because it was literally that theordore and scientific guy just going back and forth about the stupidest stuff.
 

pixelation

Member
Nov 21, 2014
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I know i'm late but.... ROFL!!!
 

Felessan

Member
Mar 11, 2013
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No it's fine. I appreciate your posts actually as it's a good idea to question what I post here to see if i've missed anything within my methodology.
To keep it simple here, last generation saw 3 top selling consoles totalling 280 million units sold in when sales are combined. The generation before saw 200 million units combined with 1 console (PS2) leading the way with an abnormally high amount of units.
I have no objections about final numbers. They are fine. (personally I think that any long term projections are analyst stuff and can be used only for reference as reliability of information of such projections always way too low)
It's just that I see this and next year slightly different based on typical market dynamics - this year should have increase and next year should have flat/decrease and then sales converge to your drawn trajectory.

In regards to years, my theory is that console sales have been very front loaded and so we won't see the same sort of trajectory that previous console gens saw. We'll still see peaks in 2015/2016 but whilst the PS4 will be the leader it won't match year 3 and year 4 of say PS2 sales or Wii sales. Whilst the Xbox One I'm expecting to sell the same as it did in 2014 or potentially less.
Here I would like to discuss.
First I would like to look at Gen7. It was very irregular generation. Mainstream consoles (PS3/X360) at first followed usual route and reached their peak numbers at year 3/4. But then they do not start to fall, both consoles actually stayed at the same number for 2 more years. There are should be explanation for this and personally I think that implementation of ecosphere for both prolonged their life as extra content and features compensates for outdated visuals in games. We see on total graph that Gen7 performed great even after Wii took a nosedive and way past both Gen6 and even "developing" (and thus late-blooming) Gen5.
So I expect this factor to offset front-loaded sales a bit so we see more "normal" sales curve behavior this gen.
 

Cthulhu_Steev

Member
Apr 11, 2013
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Who is Dankey Kong?

A guy who made these threads interesting with crazy arguments. Banned currently I think.

I'm a bit late to the lolban party but; Not just currently, I think he got juniored then ate himself another slice of BANoffee pie..

Man those two were like yin and yang.

lol


Oh God it looks like I missed some hilarity. Can someone please direct me to where the fun begins?

benny_a made a new friend then, just like the Emperor, led his padawan to destruction.
 

RexNovis

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Sep 8, 2013
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Do we have any data on PS+ and XBL Gold subscriptions on next gen systems? Preferably some kind of percentage. I'm curious whether MS has kept their very high subscription rate and how much PS+ subscriptions rose.
 

Nightengale

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Jun 12, 2013
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Do we have any data on PS+ and XBL Gold subscriptions on next gen systems? Preferably some kind of percentage. I'm curious whether MS has kept their very high subscription rate and how much PS+ subscriptions rose.

PS+ is around 50% of PS4 install base.
 

Fitts

Member
Aug 22, 2014
7,257
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I don't normally observe these threads, but with the release of Bloodborne I felt as though I had a horse in the race. I'm elated that it's doing so well. I figured that it wouldn't be able to topple Battlefield (franchise shooter released on every platform vs a console exclusive) but it's nice to see something that was considered niche by many be embraced by the masses.

Congrats to From/Sony! I hope that their partnership continues as both Demon's and BB stand as two of the best games ever made (in my opinion) and they clearly have the market to make lightning strike for a third time.
 

ZhugeEX

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May 23, 2013
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I trust you Zhuge but where'd you see that number? Do we have anything official from MS about live subscriptions?

I'm at work right now so can't provide a full answer as such but I do remember seeing some old Xbox Live and PS4 attach rate numbers somewhere. But these are quite old numbers and wont reflect the current situation.

Unless anyone else beats me to it i'll see what I can dig up when I get back home this evening.
 
Feb 3, 2007
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Here I would like to discuss.
First I would like to look at Gen7. It was very irregular generation. Mainstream consoles (PS3/X360) at first followed usual route and reached their peak numbers at year 3/4. But then they do not start to fall, both consoles actually stayed at the same number for 2 more years. There are should be explanation for this and personally I think that implementation of ecosphere for both prolonged their life as extra content and features compensates for outdated visuals in games

For the 360, the Kinect was treated - for all intents and purposes - as the launch of a new platform and at least some of the reinvigoration of the platform must be attributed to that.
I don't disagree with your implicit second point that "power" is not as significant a contributing factor to market appeal as some would suggest.
 

-Cwalat-

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Jan 26, 2011
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I'm pretty disappointed with the game roster. No great AAA games like the last gen had at the consoles lifecycle.

Batman: Arkham Knight and Witcher 3 are going to help alot, but really, there isn't much left for the rest of the year.

This is why the sales have been going down on YTY.
 

idlewild_

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Aug 8, 2008
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Nah. What his link does is narrow the results down to consoles EDIT- videogames- so you don't have to go through every single product. You can see the WiiU and XB1 positions are the same. The PS4 is not there on that page for some reason. Unless electronics and videogames are counted somewhat differently.

Looks like you won't be able to respond to this.

The PS4 is tagged under toys and not electronics for some reason. This link shows both PS4 and XB1 on the same list:

http://www.target.com/tdir/p/toys/-/N-5xtb0/Ns-bestselling

That whole part of the site is kind of a mess tbh
 

Rymuth

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Jun 8, 2014
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I do get a kick out of when they go all I SAID GOOD DAY, SIR but just can't help coming back.

"The storm had now definitely abated, and what thunder there was now grumbled over more distant hills, like a man saying 'And another thing...' twenty minutes after admitting he's lost the argument." - Douglas Adams
 
I had to keep double checking my web address to make sure I wasn't on GameFAQs...

Me too. I left GameFAQs to avoid those posts... but... this one was kind of entertaining since it was just the two of them with everyone else making jokes around them.

I have a legit question though...

Does NPD count preordered consoles/games in their stats? I'm just wondering if the Battlefront announcement will show up this month or when it's released? Or if we could see a spike in PS4 sales due to the trailer alone.
 

hodayathink

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Mar 13, 2013
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Me too. I left GameFAQs to avoid those posts... but... this one was kind of entertaining since it was just the two of them with everyone else making jokes around them.

I have a legit question though...

Does NPD count preordered consoles/games in their stats? I'm just wondering if the Battlefront announcement will show up this month or when it's released? Or if we could see a spike in PS4 sales due to the trailer alone.

On release. There's not going to be a huge spike in PS4 sales because of the Battlefield trailer (for one, because it's on both systems, and for two, because we know almost nothing about the game yet except its release date and targeted framerate). Looking at Amazon, though, the Batman bundle will have an effect, but we won't know what it is until June.
 

Quadraphonic

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Man, that was fun to read. It was like seeing a child end every sentence with "but the Xbox One sells better, of course."

I kind of wanted him to stay around. Like a caged animal.
 
On release. There's not going to be a huge spike in PS4 sales because of the Battlefield trailer (for one, because it's on both systems, and for two, because we know almost nothing about the game yet except its release date and targeted framerate). Looking at Amazon, though, the Batman bundle will have an effect, but we won't know what it is until June.

That's what I thought. Plus, I'd assume a lot of the preorders would be digital anyhow at this point and those aren't tracked.
 

Felessan

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Mar 11, 2013
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For the 360, the Kinect was treated - for all intents and purposes - as the launch of a new platform and at least some of the reinvigoration of the platform must be attributed to that.
I don't disagree with your implicit second point that "power" is not as significant a contributing factor to market appeal as some would suggest.
Yes, but second wind due to Kinect launch was actually a bit later - it happens after X360 peaked out, sales stabilized for 2 more years on the roughly the same level and only then we saw a bump due to Kinect launch. And Kinect was a major reason why we don't see drop after Wii interest dried up as kinect bump helped compensate rapidly falling WII sales.
But still - last generation had too strong after peak support that should be attributed to something.
 

serversurfer

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Aug 31, 2013
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"Sony also noted that PlayStation Plus subscriptions surpassed 10.9m as of 2nd January."
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2015-01-06-playstation-4-has-sold-18-5-million-units-worldwide
Are we sure that's across all platforms, and not just PS4? That seems really low given the total number of PlayStation owners, and the high attach rates for Plus on PS4 they were seeing early on.

Also, the press release (via Google Translate) says they've sold over eight billion pieces of PS4 software. Da fuq? =/
 

ZhugeEX

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May 23, 2013
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Are we sure that's across all platforms, and not just PS4? That seems really low given the total number of PlayStation owners, and the high attach rates for Plus on PS4 they were seeing early on.

Also, the press release (via Google Translate) says they've sold over eight billion pieces of PS4 software. Da fuq? =/

Yes it's all platforms. (Basically user accounts that have Plus)

The number of software units sold through at retail / digital is 81.8 million. Japanese numbering is different to ours.

8,180万本 = 81.8m

Here is a comparison you may be interested in.

Packaged software sales for PlayStation consoles (PS4 includes digital sales)
PS4 (14 months) - 81.8 million software sales*
PS3 (14 months) - 51.4 million software sales**
PS2 (15 months) - 49.8 million software sales***
PS1 (28 months) - 98.0 million software sales****

*PS4 cumulative hardware sell through was 18.5 million
**PS3 cumulative hardware shipments were 10.5 million
***PS2 first 7 months were Japan only, total cumulative hardware shipments were 14.95 million (Japan = 40%)
****PS1 software sales not available for under first 28 months, total cumulative hardware shipments were 13.5 million after 28 months.

Please note that packaged software for PS1 and PS2 is counted as a sale when the software disc is produced in factory and sold to Sony distributors, for PS3 the sale is counted when the software disc is sold to retailers by Sony, for PS4 the sale is counted when the software disc is sold through to the end user.
 

serversurfer

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Aug 31, 2013
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Yes it's all platforms. (Basically user accounts that have Plus)
Hmm. That just seems really low. I wonder if PS4 subs dropped off a cliff, or if it was simply never used much by PS3/PSV owners.

The number of software units sold through at retail / digital is 81.8 million. Japanese numbering is different to ours.
Ah, that makes more sense. Per Google, that section also says, "To do this, include the actual sales 1,780 copies of the end of 2014, beginning of the year shopping season." ("これには、2014年の年末・年始商戦期※1の実売1,780万本※2が含まれます。") So does that mean that of the 82M games sold, only 18M were purchased at retail? PS4 owners buy 78% of their games digitally?

Here is a comparison you may be interested in.

Packaged software sales for PlayStation consoles (PS4 includes digital sales)
PS4 (14 months) - 81.8 million software sales*
PS3 (14 months) - 51.4 million software sales**
PS2 (15 months) - 49.8 million software sales***
PS1 (28 months) - 98.0 million software sales****

*PS4 cumulative hardware sell through was 18.5 million
**PS3 cumulative hardware shipments were 10.5 million
***PS2 first 7 months were Japan only, total cumulative hardware shipments were 14.95 million (Japan = 40%)
****PS1 software sales not available for under first 28 months, total cumulative hardware shipments were 13.5 million after 28 months.

Please note that packaged software for PS1 and PS2 is counted as a sale when the software disc is produced in factory and sold to Sony distributors, for PS3 the sale is counted when the software disc is sold to retailers by Sony, for PS4 the sale is counted when the software disc is sold through to the end user.
Thanks. I was thinking that PS4 tie ratio was kinda low, until I realized it was being compared to software shipments in generations past. Any guesses as to how many of those 51M PS3 games had actually sold through, for example?
 

ZhugeEX

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May 23, 2013
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Hmm. That just seems really low. I wonder if PS4 subs dropped off a cliff, or if it was simply never used much by PS3/PSV owners.

It's low to me to, but remember that PS Plus was always optional on PS3 so never really took off. It's very likely that the high majority of those 11m+ PS Plus owners are PS4 owners.


Ah, that makes more sense. Per Google, that section also says, "To do this, include the actual sales 1,780 copies of the end of 2014, beginning of the year shopping season." ("これには、2014年の年末・年始商戦期※1の実売1,780万本※2が含まれます。") So does that mean that of the 82M games sold, only 18M were purchased at retail? PS4 owners buy 78% of their games digitally?

No, this means that 17.80m software sales were during the holiday period which ran from November 24th 2014 to January 4th 2015. So total software sales were 64 Million as of November 23rd 2014. There is no breakdown given for retail Vs Digtial.

Here are total software sales for PS4:

Dec 28 - 9.7m (2013)
Mar 02 - 13.7m (2014)
Apr 13 - 20.5m
Aug 10- 30.0m
Nov 23 - 64.0m
Jan 04 - 81.8m (2015)


Thanks. I was thinking that PS4 tie ratio was kinda low, until I realized it was being compared to software shipments in generations past. Any guesses as to how many of those 51M PS3 games had actually sold through, for example?

No idea I'm afraid.

But that's why I specifically said that PS4 numbers are sold through where as other numbers are sold in/production units.


If you would like to see more data to do with PS4 sell through and holiday sales then please take a look at this post here.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=159735223&postcount=251
 

serversurfer

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Aug 31, 2013
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No, this means that 17.80m software sales were during the holiday period which ran from November 24th 2014 to January 4th 2015. So total software sales were 64 Million as of November 23rd 2014. There is no breakdown given for retail Vs Digtial.
Ah, right on. The phrase, "the actual sales" threw me off. I thought perhaps it meant physical sales.

Edit: That's like half a billion in Plus revenues though; not too shabby.
 

Sangetsu-II

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Dec 5, 2014
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Amazon just fucked up their best seller charts again with Black Ops 3 the same way MKX was. Only the XBO version shows up and in the top 1 continuously only shows that it's counting the PS4 versions like PS4 MK was doing with the XBO version. Amazon better not keep doing this messing with the prediction tracking for monthly charts.
 

Welfare

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Feb 24, 2014
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Amazon just fucked up their best seller charts again with Black Ops 3 the same way MKX was. Only the XBO version shows up and in the top 1 continuously only shows that it's counting the PS4 versions like PS4 MK was doing with the XBO version. Amazon better not keep doing this messing with the prediction tracking for monthly charts.

Maybe Sony and Microsoft really are cheesing the system.