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NPD Sales Results for March 2015 [Up1: Nintendo numbers, PS4 placing]

GeoramA

Member
Jul 23, 2005
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2016 looks amazing for PS4 exclusives. FFXV(not exclusive, but will push sales like one), SFV(similar effect as FFXV), Uncharted 4, GOW4(probably), Morpheus, Horizon(likely), GT7(likely). We know things can change quickly though.
Morpheus needs to have a big game to launch with. I'm hoping this is where Media Molecule comes in.
 
Jun 26, 2013
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This is the NPD thread, so I thought this could be interesting for folks around here

Preorders for Mighty No. 9 have just started on Amazon, and they're quite skewed towards PlayStation...and not just PlayStation

Mighty No.9
Wii U - 134th
PS4 - 159th
Xbox One - 1,616th

It's a small game, sure...but seeing Xbox One so far from the other SKUs, and Wii U/PS4 being not that far (with Wii U on top!) is surprising.

While the disparity is large between the PS4 and XBO versions, Amazon is not a reliable predictor for relative software sales. February NPD perfectly proves that. Amazon had The Order way above both versions of Evolve, but NPD showed Evolve above The Order.
 

Malitik Sabu

Banned
Sep 18, 2014
279
0
0
You're going to need to expand on this one.

The Wii launched November 2006 and sold 20 million by January 2008.

The PS4 and Xbox One launched November 2013 and sold 32 million combined by January 2015.

I thought the wii sold 20 million within the time frame the PS4 sold 20 million???

Welp numbers and me don't go well so disregard.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Oct 13, 2014
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0
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That depends on how big this holiday is and if QB does anything since if I'm correct, they moved QB out the holiday season.

You can't keep a product running at healthy levels when it's holding on thanks to 2 months of the year in 1 country.
MS has to find a way to stabilize their sales instead of relying on Holidays and sales/ discounts.

On another note, with more than a year of data outside of launch now, I have gathered two set of datas. On one end, the Amazon US monthly rankings (inverted on a base 100, so that a low rank is actually better than a high one), and on the other the NPD sales data.

As expected, it shows two things:
- So far, the relative rankings have been correct
- It would be foolish to try to determine actual sales based on rankings

2014-2015 Amazon Monthly rankings (inverted on a base 100, so that higher is better. Rank 1 = 100, Rank 0 = Rank 100 or beyond)):

disclosure: For the purpose of clarity, this chart only takes in account the -1- top SKU for the month, and disregards pre-orders)

2014-2015 Monthly NPD sales:


In particular, of note:
- The biggest Amazon ranking gap between PS4 and XB1 was in Summer 14. The actual sales did not reflect this.
- The gap in Amazon rankings -increased- in December vs November (14), while the actual sales did the opposite.
- February saw the XB1 almost on par with Amazon rankings, while the sales did not reflect that at all (the closest months in actual sales were Feb 14, August 14 and Jan 15)
 

RexNovis

Banned
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
0
0
JAPAN
twitter.com
This is the NPD thread, so I thought this could be interesting for folks around here

Preorders for Mighty No. 9 have just started on Amazon, and they're quite skewed towards PlayStation...and not just PlayStation

Mighty No.9
Wii U - 134th
PS4 - 159th
Xbox One - 1,616th

It's a small game, sure...but seeing Xbox One so far from the other SKUs, and Wii U/PS4 being not that far (with Wii U on top!) is surprising.

Let my tag be a lesson to you and anyone else trying to use Amazon charts to gauge software sales. Don't make my mistake. You still have time. Correct your logic before it's too late.
 

Ty4on

Member
Jun 22, 2011
11,588
0
690
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Amazon rankings did predict PS4's September sales quite well. 2014 sales of the Destiny bundle (which included pre-orderers) were higher than any XB1 SKU sales putting it alone at more than 300k. Add the 200ish k from regular SKU ranking being stable and you're close to its actual sales of 538k.
 

ZhugeEX

Banned
May 23, 2013
5,915
0
0
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So as soon as I post this -

Amazon is not an indicator of total market performance.

It is a good indicator of Amazon performance and general trends.

Amazon is an indicator of general trends etc...

But trying to analyse it in depth to create a quantitative outcome for NPD or the US market is pointless.

We get people doing the exact thing I said not to do.... I mean come on people.
 

Game Guru

Member
Dec 14, 2010
3,263
1
0
This is the NPD thread, so I thought this could be interesting for folks around here

Preorders for Mighty No. 9 have just started on Amazon, and they're quite skewed towards PlayStation...and not just PlayStation

Mighty No.9
Wii U - 134th
PS4 - 159th
Xbox One - 1,616th

It's a small game, sure...but seeing Xbox One so far from the other SKUs, and Wii U/PS4 being not that far (with Wii U on top!) is surprising.

Not really that surprising given the genre and legacy that Mighty No. 9 has... It's, essentially, the spiritual successor to Mega Man, so treat its potential audience as if it were the Mega Man audience. It's a platformer which is a genre that sells best on Nintendo platforms and both Nintendo and PlayStation platforms got a multitude of Mega Man games in their past, while Xbox platforms only got Mega Man Anniversary Collection and Mega Man 9 & 10 which both Nintendo and PlayStation platforms got.

While Mighty No. 9 could do great on Xbox One and Amazon should not be the sole indicator of how well a certain game will do on a particular platform, it is obvious that certain genres sell better on certain systems than others and Mighty No. 9 is not in the genre or style that Xbox fans normally buy.
 

Sangetsu-II

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Dec 5, 2014
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I don't get why people are pushing Amazon Charts so heavily as a predicting tool to Xbox One's favor. The PS4 has stock issues so even if XBO is on top this month, PS4 will win NPD every month until either October or If XBO gets another price-drop before October.

Has anyone not noticed that PS4 has noticible games coming all these summer months exclusive wise and Xbox has literally only 3 games this Holiday (It's last game was State of Decay and that won't push units for April, May & Summer).
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
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430
Amazon would not actually be a good indicator for the Xbox One this because of the Gamestop and Best Buy deals that went on this month.

At Gamestop, for 3 weeks, if you traded in a last gen console you get an Xbox One for $225 and right now Best Buy has this.

Btw abdiel how has this deal been doing?
 
Jul 7, 2014
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Amazon would not actually be a good indicator for the Xbox One this because of the Gamestop and Best Buy deals that went on this month.

At Gamestop, for 3 weeks, if you traded in a last gen console you get an Xbox One for $225 and right now Best Buy has this.

Btw abdiel how has this deal been doing?

I'm gonna say it is good indicator(for the leader) until it fails to predict the winner in a given month.
 

Javin98

Banned
Nov 30, 2014
6,851
1
0
Ipoh, Malaysia
I don't check my own store, since I'm here and can just talk to customers and see our trends. I check on district levels for warehouse, shipping and sold numbers. I used to provide screen shots of the inventory system, but I stopped to protect myself, haha.

There's one off stores where the xb1 sells better, but the ps4 sells better across the board on the national level.
Thanks for clarifying. I always appreciate info coming from you.

I thought people already knew The Shogun was banned >_< I haven't been active on GAF until now, so I have no idea what happened to him.
I honestly had no idea....
 

Malitik Sabu

Banned
Sep 18, 2014
279
0
0
It did.

Which is the same timeframe I used. I'm not entirely sure what you're trying to say here.

Didn't the Wii hit 40 by the end of the next year? Because by this point if true, I thought the Wii Would be at around 30+ by now, but maybe I gave the Wii a bit too much credit for sales.

Like I said my numbers are all over the place, france, paris, england. So just take with a grain.
 

wolfhowwl

Banned
Mar 5, 2014
1,191
40
430
Texas
*Sighs* If only those retailers have their own monthly best sellers lists, too. I guess I'll just wait for Abdiel and other Bish-checked users' assessments. Btw, what happened to The Shogun? Just noticed that he's banned.

He's gone? Damn, that's too bad.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Oct 13, 2014
7,121
0
0
Arizona
...
Has anyone not noticed that PS4 has noticible games coming all these summer months exclusive wise and Xbox has literally only 3 games this Holiday (It's last game was State of Decay and that won't push units for April, May & Summer).


Both companies have different strategies (specifically on the Western Markets, as in EU/ NA as discussed here) and we will have to wait until December this year to see who applied the best one (so far it's been Sony, when looking at numbers).

For MS, the 2015 strategy we can see for now (a lot can change at E3) is:
- Evolve Co-Marketing
- Witcher 3 Co-Marketing
- a few 1st party/ second party exclusives here and there (Screamride, State of Decay)
- A few high Profile Indies (Below, Ori, Cuphead, Inside...)
- Rise of the Tomb Raider Holiday exclusivity
- Forza 6 for the Holidays
... and of course Halo 5 for the Holidays as well

For Sony, the 2015 strategy we can see so far appears to be
- 1st/ 2nd party exclusives all year long (The Order 1886, Bloodborne, MLB 15, Until Dawn, Tearaway Unfolded, God of War 3 remastered, Ratchet and Clank remake...)
- Japanese exclusives here and there (Toukiden Kiwami, Persona 5, Disagea 5, Godzilla ...)
- Tons of indies, some more or less exclusive (generally "less"), with some quite high profile one (NMS, Rapture, Rime, Tomorrow Children...)
- Star Wars Battlefront co-Marketing
- Batman Arkham Knight co-Marketing and special PS4 bundle
- Destiny expansion co-Marketing

Obviously, for either of them, more to come at E3. The big unknowns wil lbe "Big Holiday period exclusive AAA" for Sony, And "Price drops" for either/ both? imo

PS: Before the "where's MGS V? Where's COD?!" - I believe that both of them are actually only rumors at this point for the US (and yes I know that Sony has the MGS V PS4 bundle in Japan Asia), so I did not include these.
 
Jul 7, 2014
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Both companies have different strategies and we will have to wait until December this year to see who applied the best one (so far it's been Sony, when looking at numbers).

For MS, the 2015 strategy we can see for now (a lot can change at E3) is:
- Evolve Co-Marketing
- Witcher 3 Co-Marketing
- a few 1st party/ second party exclusives (Screamride, State of Decay)
- A few high Profile Indies (Below, Ori, Cuphead, Inside...)
- Rise of the Tomb Raider Holiday exclusivity
- Forza 6
... and of course Halo 5

For Sony, the 2015 strategy we can see so far appears to be
- 1st/ 2nd party exclusives all year long (The Order 1886, Bloodborne, MLB 15, Until Dawn, Tearaway Unfolded, God of War 3 remastered, Ratchet and Clank remake...)
- Japanese exclusives here and there (Persona 5, Disagea 5, Godzilla ...)
- Tons of indies, some more or less exclusive (generally "less"), with some quite high profile one (NMS, Rapture, Rime, Tomorrow Children...)
- Star Wars Battlefront co-Marketing
- Batman Arkham Knight co-Marketing and special PS4 bundle
- Destiny expansion co-Marketing

Obviously, for either of them, more to come at E3. The big unknowns wil lbe "Big Holiday period exclusive AAA" for Sony, And "Price drops" for either/ both? imo

PS: Before the "where's MGS V? Where's COD?!" - I believe that both of them are actually only rumors at this point for the US (and yes I know that Sony has the MGS V PS4 bundle in Japan), so I did not include these.

The bundle isn't just Japan. It said Asia.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Oct 13, 2014
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He also forgot Arkham Night PS4 exclusivity in Japan too.

I probably should have specified (thought it was pretty obvious though) that I was talking about the strategies in the US/ Western world (EU/ NA).

Japan is such a peculiar market on so many levels (not a negative btw, just a consideration) that I wouldn't presume to analyze the strategy of either firms over there.

We also see so many products/ bundles that we won't ever see in the rest of the world (beside imports), that it makes it rather difficult to draw comparisons, on either software or hardware imo.
 

Sangetsu-II

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Dec 5, 2014
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Japan is such a peculiar market on so many levels (not a negative btw, just a consideration) that I wouldn't presume to analyze the strategy of either firms over there.

I see now you where only talking about US but you still shouldn't think too lightly of PS4 in Japan though since it almost has 1.5 million units sold there any exclusive marketing their and in Asian territories will make a difference in the WW number seeing as XBO really doesn't bold well in Asian markets.
 

Square2015

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Oct 10, 2010
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Going into year three for Nintendo's past five generations.

March '15 compared to March '09, March '04, March '99, and March '94...

*Click to make bigger*

If there is interest, I'll write up a historical software report.
 
Jun 26, 2013
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I just want to say that NPD threads devolving into Amazon chart watching is truly painful.

I don't know why some people are putting so much stock on Amazon. The OP in the March NPD Predictions thread stated that Amazon only encompasses a tiny fraction of US sales (~5%).
 
Jul 7, 2014
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I don't know why some people are putting so much stock on Amazon. The OP in the March NPD Predictions thread stated that Amazon only encompasses a tiny fraction of US sales (~5%).

Because it has correctly identified the NPD hardware winner every month this generation. Outside of that it isn't worth much, but it is still something.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Jul 29, 2010
4,427
244
1,040
Dear god, no. Theodore Pewd was just terrible and some people are taking too much stock on Amazon.

But that 6% of the market is ALL that counts! </sarcasm>


Mpl brings some pretty interesting knowledge to the Media Create threads, so I'm pretty sure he was just posting it b/c it was interesting :). Btw, did we ever get Xenoblade Wii #s back when it was released? I'm curious because recently Iwata mentioned the game sold more in the West than Japan (which I kind of suspected anyways).
 

theprodigy

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Aug 25, 2013
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But that 6% of the market is ALL that counts! </sarcasm>


Mpl brings some pretty interesting knowledge to the Media Create threads, so I'm pretty sure he was just posting it b/c it was interesting :). Btw, did we ever get Xenoblade Wii #s back when it was released? I'm curious because recently Iwata mentioned the game sold more in the West than Japan (which I kind of suspected anyways).

lol

nope!
 

Conduit

Banned
Jun 20, 2014
4,241
1
0
Croatia
PS: Before the "where's MGS V? Where's COD?!" - I believe that both of them are actually only rumors at this point for the US (and yes I know that Sony has the MGS V PS4 bundle in Japan Asia), so I did not include these.

Well, there was MGS IV bundle in US.
 

Elios83

Member
Jun 30, 2004
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2.4m PS4 shipped last quarter.

Yep total PS4 shipments at 22.3m at the end of March.
16m PS4 forecast for next fiscal year compared to 14.8m this year, so a growth forecast.

3.3m Vitas shipped during the past fiscal year,no forecast given for PS3 and Vita for the next fiscal year.

48.1 billion yen operating profit for the gaming division in FY2014 compared to a 18.8 billion yen operating loss in FY2013.
 

Chobel

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Mar 26, 2013
15,673
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515
Yep total PS4 shipments at 22.3m at the end of March.
16m PS4 forecast for next fiscal year compared to 14.8m this year, so a growth forecast.

3.3m Vitas shipped during the past fiscal year,no forecast given for PS3 and Vita for the next fiscal year.

48.1 billion yen operating profit for the gaming division in FY2014 compared to a 18.8 billion yen operating loss in FY2013.

Only 8% increase in sales? $100 price cut for PS4 seems out of question now.
 

Kysen

Member
Oct 6, 2012
5,397
1
0
Vita and Vita TV component write-off, yep its dead. Mobile acting as a millstone around Sonys neck too.
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Feb 26, 2005
17,582
0
0
Santa Destroy
You can't keep a product running at healthy levels when it's holding on thanks to 2 months of the year in 1 country.
MS has to find a way to stabilize their sales instead of relying on Holidays and sales/ discounts.

On another note, with more than a year of data outside of launch now, I have gathered two set of datas. On one end, the Amazon US monthly rankings (inverted on a base 100, so that a low rank is actually better than a high one), and on the other the NPD sales data.

As expected, it shows two things:
- So far, the relative rankings have been correct
- It would be foolish to try to determine actual sales based on rankings

2014-2015 Amazon Monthly rankings (inverted on a base 100, so that higher is better. Rank 1 = 100, Rank 0 = Rank 100 or beyond)):

disclosure: For the purpose of clarity, this chart only takes in account the -1- top SKU for the month, and disregards pre-orders)

2014-2015 Monthly NPD sales:


In particular, of note:
- The biggest Amazon ranking gap between PS4 and XB1 was in Summer 14. The actual sales did not reflect this.
- The gap in Amazon rankings -increased- in December vs November (14), while the actual sales did the opposite.
- February saw the XB1 almost on par with Amazon rankings, while the sales did not reflect that at all (the closest months in actual sales were Feb 14, August 14 and Jan 15)

I genuinely appreciate your attempt to be analytical, it's
Impressive. But could have saved yourself a lot of time if people just listened to me when I said a dozen times looking at Amazon rankings as any meaningful sales indicator is a huge waste of time :)
 

Elios83

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Jun 30, 2004
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Only 8% increase in sales? $100 price cut for PS4 seems out of question now.

No on the contrary it's a real possibility.
A percentage doesn't mean a lot when you want to sell 16m units in a single year which is a major goal. PS2 did 18m in its best year ever at 199$.
Also profits are expected to slightly decline in the gaming division to 40 billion yen (although they're officially blaming PS3 and the strong us dollar for that).

Btw it's all but confirmed that there will be a price cut this year :)
 

ZhugeEX

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May 23, 2013
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No on the contrary it's a real possibility.
A percentage doesn't mean a lot when you want to sell 16m units in a single year which is a major goal. PS2 did 18m in its best year ever at 199$.
Also profits are expected to slightly decline in the gaming division to 40 billion yen (although they're officially blaming PS3 and the strong us dollar for that).

Btw it's all but confirmed that there will be a price cut this year :)

PS2 did 22.5m in its best year
 

Elios83

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Jun 30, 2004
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PS2 did 22.5m in its best year

Ok I stand corrected I remember that one of the peak years at 199$ was around 18m.
I don't have the datas I'm going by memory, what PS2 did during the fiscal year when they cut the price to 199$?
 

ZhugeEX

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May 23, 2013
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Ok I stand corrected I remember that one of the peak years at 199$ was around 18m.
I don't have the datas I'm going by memory, what PS2 did during the fiscal year when they cut the price to 199$?

PS2 dropped to $199 at the beginning of FY2002/03.

That was the peak year it sold 22.5m