NPD Sales Results for May 2013 [Up2: 360, 3DS Est, Software lowest since May 2000]

Apr 22, 2007
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i was trying to be optimistic about the vita. i thought there was a chance for a turnaround later next year. e3 convinced me that sony has no future plans for the machine.

it's dead, jim.
Yeah but Sony ain't worried, they just cool like that.

Yoshi's New Island isn't this year.
So far for next year, there're those 2, Professor Layton & The Azran Legacy, Mario Golf World Tour, and Bravely Default Flying Fairy.
There's also a good chance that Mario Party gets delayed as well.

Still, they've got a lot of time to announce some new games, even if Super Smash Bros is Q4.
MH4 should come next year too, since the success of MH3G and Nintendo's tendency to localise third party games these days, I think a quicker than usual localisation will happen. They've still got plenty of 3DS games in the works too, this year's lineup has been pretty low from Nintendo, they're pretty happy with the main system sellers.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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Those important games you mentioned will mostly attract the same demographic segment, Nintendo fans, that already bought a Wii U. I wouldn´t expect a significant improvement in sales. Fascinating post.
you think the entirety of the nintendo fanbase is people who are interested in nsmbu and nintendoland? and that super mario 3d world, pikmin 3, and the wind waker hd are only going to appeal to those existing users?
 
Jun 9, 2012
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Those important games you mentioned will mostly attract the same demographic segment, Nintendo fans, that already bought a Wii U. I wouldn´t expect a significant improvement in sales. Fascinating post.
When the price drops and Smash, 3d Mario, etc. are out I will definitely have a Wii U. I know a lot of Nintendo fans that have no interest in the console right now due to not caring about NSMBU at all which is basically the only big thing Nintendo has put out for the console in 8 months.

The 3DS lineup in 2014 will probably be a big step down from 2013 and more like 2012.

Smash Bros
Yoshi
Bravely Default

are what we have so far. They have already played the 2d Mario, 3d mario, mario kart, animal crossing, and pokemon cards by then and I don't expect any of those series to reappear on 3DS. There is still a lot of time though
 
Jun 7, 2004
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Yeah but Sony ain't worried, they just cool like that.
i still think the system will get to at least dreamcast/saturn/game gear levels. of course, if sony is really adamant about that, they could try keeping it on the market for five years and have it get closer to 15-20m after price drops. i'm not sure what the breaking point will be for retailers though.
 
Apr 22, 2007
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i still think the system will get to at least dreamcast/saturn/game gear levels. of course, if sony is really adamant about that, they could try keeping it on the market for five years and have it get closer to 15-20m after price drops. i'm not sure what the breaking point will be for retailers though.
Retailers stuck it out with the PSP despite anemic hardware/software sales, mostly the software sales since thats where they make most of the money, even if PSP sales were never this bad. Worse comes to worse it'll just have little presence in the shops, I don't see them simply cutting it off just for the fact that the PS4 will be selling and it won't hurt to dedicate one shelf for the Vita.

When the price drops and Smash, 3d Mario, etc. are out I will definitely have a Wii U. I know a lot of Nintendo fans that have no interest in the console right now due to not caring about NSMBU at all which is basically the only big thing Nintendo has put out for the console in 8 months.

The 3DS lineup in 2014 will probably be a big step down from 2013 and more like 2012.

Smash Bros
Yoshi
Bravely Default

are what we have so far. They have already played the 2d Mario, 3d mario, mario kart, animal crossing, and pokemon cards by then and I don't expect any of those series to reappear on 3DS. There is still a lot of time though
I see the opposite, 2014 will be even bigger for the 3DS since their output is pretty low this year, its just that this year's games are pretty big system sellers. Next year will probably consist of more B tier titles.

Its also way too early for 2014's lineup, most of this year's third party games are already coming this year, if Japan doesn't even have a 2014 lineup, there's no hope we have any idea for the west.
 
Jun 9, 2012
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i still think the system will get to at least dreamcast/saturn/game gear levels. of course, if sony is really adamant about that, they could try keeping it on the market for five years and have it get closer to 15-20m after price drops. i'm not sure what the breaking point will be for retailers though.
It just sold worse than the PSP did in May 2012. I haven't seen a PSP on shelves in at least a year and half. And the PSP had the benefit of having a much bigger userbase. I don't get how people are saying Sony aren't worried about Vita. Maybe in the sense that overall it doesn't hurt them that badly if it does go down, but come on now.

140k/month worldwide for U? I think that's being a little generous. Japan is what, 40k or less/month. Not sure of the US figures, maybe 50-70k? It's practically dead in Europe. I'd guess around 100k a month, if that.
Yeah I was being pretty generous. April March have both been in the 30ks for Wii U. It's probably closer to 110k a month worldwide.
 
Apr 22, 2007
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The indie wave hasn't really hit the Vita yet. There's a good 30-40 titles announced, let's see what happens when some of them hit at least.
You're kind of giving indie titles too much credit in selling systems.

you think the entirety of the nintendo fanbase is people who are interested in nsmbu and nintendoland? and that super mario 3d world, pikmin 3, and the wind waker hd are only going to appeal to those existing users?
Yeah I really don't get this logic at all, the 100th generic sequels to FPS games sell systems every year, but Nintendo games only sell to the existing userbase already.
 
Jun 9, 2012
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The indie wave hasn't really hit the Vita yet. There's a good 30-40 titles announced, let's see what happens when some of them hit at least.
No one is buying a 250 dollar system (or 200 for that matter) for indie games. Maybe at 99 bucks it could be a good PS4 accessory/indie game player but we all know thats not happening. The portable market is near wrecked in the west and unless one of those indie games is the next Pokemon its not going to do anything besides sell decently to the current userbase which to their credit seem to be buying a lot of digital titles.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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It just sold worse than the PSP did in May 2012. I haven't seen a PSP on shelves in at least a year and half. And the PSP had the benefit of having a much bigger userbase. I don't get how people are saying Sony aren't worried about Vita. Maybe in the sense that overall it doesn't hurt them that badly if it does go down, but come on now.
sony can't even get its biggest studios on board for vita. tearaway looks like it'll be a really great game, but naughty dog can't figure out what to do with the machine? come on losers, not everything needs to be a humanity-defining movie-game. sony really should have had their top guys making shit at launch and shortly afterward, unless they had secretly planned for this thing to fail all along.
 
sony can't even get its biggest studios on board for vita. tearaway looks like it'll be a really great game, but naughty dog can't figure out what to do with the machine? come on losers, not everything needs to be a humanity-defining movie-game. sony really should have had their top guys making shit at launch and shortly afterward, unless they had secretly planned for this thing to fail all along.
I said this when the Vita was revealed and got yelled at for insinuating Naughty Dog should lower themselves to handhelds.
 
Apr 22, 2007
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If your source is the Nintendo press site, I don't know if these numbers are correct because they didn't update anything besides 3DS hardware numbers.
Wouldn't that imply 3DS hardware numbers are the only thing you can reliably use?

sony can't even get its biggest studios on board for vita. tearaway looks like it'll be a really great game, but naughty dog can't figure out what to do with the machine? come on losers, not everything needs to be a humanity-defining movie-game. sony really should have had their top guys making shit at launch and shortly afterward, unless they had secretly planned for this thing to fail all along.
Sony's first party have never really bothered with their handhelds, even when the PSP was selling decently, expecting Naughty Dog to do anything is wishful thinking.

In the end Sony probably just didn't think the 3DS would dominate so hard in Japan, especially in the early months of its life, and they certainly didn't expect MH to jump ship. They thought third parties would magically support them just because of the PSP's late game support. I have no idea what they expected it to do in the west, maybe they thought being the same price as the 3DS and being more powerful was enough to sell it, even though the 3DS isn't the only competition.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
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When the price drops and Smash, 3d Mario, etc. are out I will definitely have a Wii U. I know a lot of Nintendo fans that have no interest in the console right now due to not caring about NSMBU at all which is basically the only big thing Nintendo has put out for the console in 8 months.

The 3DS lineup in 2014 will probably be a big step down from 2013 and more like 2012.

Smash Bros
Yoshi
Bravely Default

are what we have so far. They have already played the 2d Mario, 3d mario, mario kart, animal crossing, and pokemon cards by then and I don't expect any of those series to reappear on 3DS. There is still a lot of time though
Actually, 3DS first party lineup in 2014 in US should be something like this, so far

Smash Bros
Yoshi
Mario Golf
Bravely Default
Professor Layton
Kirby (I know it hasn't been announced yet, but you know it's coming)
 
Jun 7, 2004
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The indie wave hasn't really hit the Vita yet. There's a good 30-40 titles announced, let's see what happens when some of them hit at least.
Almost none of them are exclusive, and many of them are late ports of games that have been available on other platforms for some time. And I don't think even exclusive indie games can move hardware in themselves - they're just a way to add diversity and fill out the lineup between bigger releases.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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I have no idea what they expected it to do in the west, maybe they thought being the same price as the 3DS and being more powerful was enough to sell it, even though the 3DS isn't the only competition.
I think they thought they could get a strong lineup of PS3/360 ports or spinoffs as long as they made hardware that was compatible with console middleware. This was stupid.
 
Jun 25, 2005
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Oh god can someone please photoshop a Vita into one of those photos with Kaz and Yoshida as the parents?
And there's people who still do that today.


So like you're sitting on the E3/Gamescom/TGS bus and all of a sudden a slightly deranged looking Kaz sits next to you, and he keeps showing you these vaguely unsettling photos of a Vita and talking about how great it is and how it would have worn these cute little Tearaway shoes and a Soul Sacrifice outfit and graduated from Remote Play preschool and you pause and go "wait would have" and he's all "Oh yes, our loss is heaven's gain" and you try not to make any sudden movements until you can change seats
 
Apr 22, 2007
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I think they thought they could get a strong lineup of PS3/360 ports or spinoffs as long as they made hardware that was compatible with console middleware. This was stupid.
They should have done that themselves then, no one is going to do that unless there's results to show there's a market for it.

So what's the general consensus, is this due to the prolonged generation or is this drop more indicative of a wider problem in the gaming market?

What if the PS4 and One fail to turn the tide after the launch frenzy dies down?
The generation is just winding down, when PS4/Xbone hits, the market should recover slowly. PS4/Xbone won't magically pull the industry up as soon as they launch, but when next-gen software start rolling out, the market will respond accordingly over time. We'll never get back to Wii/DS era level of sales, especially with digital gaining traction each day.
 
Jun 11, 2009
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So what's the general consensus, is this due to the prolonged generation or is this drop more indicative of a wider problem in the gaming market?

What if the PS4 and One fail to turn the tide after the launch frenzy dies down?
The whole economy is crap and most places in the world aren't about to get better. They might slow things but games are a bit screwed regardless. Over the next few years, seeing only small declines will probably be a victory.
 
Sep 11, 2006
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That's neglecting digital business, in fairness.
So what's the general consensus, is this due to the prolonged generation or is this drop more indicative of a wider problem in the gaming market?

What if the PS4 and One fail to turn the tide after the launch frenzy dies down?
From an outsider perspective its a SONY XBOX NINTENDO problem... most growth last generation was because of Wii and Ds... and we all know whats happening with Wiiu and 3DS.

most people are counting on PS4 to help the market... but ps3 was a failure compared to the PS2 so i dont really see the logic..
 
Jun 7, 2004
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sony can't even get its biggest studios on board for vita. tearaway looks like it'll be a really great game, but naughty dog can't figure out what to do with the machine? come on losers, not everything needs to be a humanity-defining movie-game. sony really should have had their top guys making shit at launch and shortly afterward, unless they had secretly planned for this thing to fail all along.
I said this when the Vita was revealed and got yelled at for insinuating Naughty Dog should lower themselves to handhelds.
Well, it depends what level of support you're arguing for from Naughty Dog et al. A small, 15-20 person handheld side team to produce a modestly budgeted, lower-risk (i.e. profitable at a few hundred thousand worldwide sales) original IP like Tearaway? Sure, I could see that being a fairly sensible move.

But a full-on AAA project, made by a significantly larger (if not quite PS3-size) team instead of TLOU? That just doesn't seem like a very smart risk to take, particularly given the evident demographic trends in what's left of the Western dedicated handheld market.
 
Jan 16, 2009
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I said this when the Vita was revealed and got yelled at for insinuating Naughty Dog should lower themselves to handhelds.
E3 week was interesting:

- Naughty Dog released The Last of Us, creating yet another 95 Metacritic franchise for Sony;

- Bungie was at Sony's stage announcing their new game, since Microsoft didn't give them the creative freedom to make that an Xbox exclusive.

- Infinity Ward was not given creative freedom by Activision, so they were with EA announcing the winner of many E3 game of the show awards.

So yeah, overall I'd say Sony made a very wise decision in how they handled Naughty Dog (and the other teams they've expanded).
 
Sep 8, 2011
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What is this about 3DS having a bad 2014?

We already know Nintendo will release:
Super Smash Bros
Yoshi's Island
Mario Golf
Bravely Deafult in 2014.

Not to mention we will almost assuredly get the third pokemon edition of x/y as well as a new Kirby game. Plus whatever else they have up their sleeve.
 
Jun 9, 2012
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Wait. You don't expect Pokémon to reappear on 3DS?

Like, not even for a third version or a remake or something?
Oh well I meant a new gen. I think X,Y for this year Z for late 2014 or early 2015. I've said I expect the 3DS to have a 4-5 year lifespan vs 6 for the DS so I expect a new handheld or different type of animal to surface at E3 2015 or possibly late next year and launch before 2016. They do have a history of doing games after a new system is out so a remake wouldn't surprise me or X/Y2 if they decide the B/W model was successfu

What is this about 3DS having a bad 2014?

We already know Nintendo will release:
Super Smash Bros
Yoshi's Island
Mario Golf
Bravely Deafult in 2014.
I'm just not expecting a large amount of new games from Nintendo besides those. Nintendo is currently blowing their load on 3DS and is shifting a lot of work onto Wii U. So I don't think it will be a bad year, just not nearly as good as this year.
 
Sep 8, 2011
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Oh well I meant a new gen. I think X,Y for this year Z for late 2014 or early 2015. I've said I expect the 3DS to have a 4-5 year lifespan vs 6 for the DS so I expect a new handheld or different type of animal to surface at E3 2015 or possibly late next year and launch before 2016. They do have a history of doing games after a new system is out so a remake wouldn't surprise me or X/Y2 if they decide the B/W model was successfu
we will get 3-4 more mainline Pokemon on 3DS. Z/X2 & Y2 as well as the Ruby & Sapphire remakes regardless if the next generation is not on 3DS.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
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What is this about 3DS having a bad 2014?

We already know Nintendo will release:
Super Smash Bros
Yoshi's Island
Mario Golf
Bravely Deafult in 2014.

Not to mention we will almost assuredly get the third pokemon edition of x/y as well as a new Kirby game. Plus whatever else they have up their sleeve.
Iwata recently stated that 2014 will be another year with a big amount of Nintendo titles.
Kirby, as said many times, is the most obvious among the unannounced...Rhythm Heaven? Tomodachi Collection in the West?
 
Jun 7, 2004
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What sort of uptick are you predicting?
going from a dreamcast/saturn trajectory to more of a gamecube one. it's kinda like if sony had released resistance and gran turismo 6 for the ps3 at launch and saying that pretty much nabbed every single sony fan in the first six months.

there won't be any one system seller, but for a lot of people it will be a gradual thing of, 'well, now that it has mario, zelda AND pikmin, i guess i should pick it up.' this line of thought will probably continue until smash bros. releases later next year.
 
Dec 5, 2012
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they can, but not with their current hardware.

something like the oculus rift would be perfect for a mass market with a company like nintendo fully behind it.
I don't get this whole fuss about Oculus Rift on GAF is. I'm sure it is cool, but this isn't something that you can see on TV. This would have the same problem as the Wii U and 3DS (to a lesser extent) does. You can't really advertise the thing you're selling, which happens to be a second screen experience and 3D, respectively. Why would VR be something that will become a big hit for any company when you would have to make someone experience it? I just don't see it.
 

jcm

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Dec 8, 2008
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sony can't even get its biggest studios on board for vita. tearaway looks like it'll be a really great game, but naughty dog can't figure out what to do with the machine? come on losers, not everything needs to be a humanity-defining movie-game. sony really should have had their top guys making shit at launch and shortly afterward, unless they had secretly planned for this thing to fail all along.
I think SCEA has assumed from day one that the dedicated handheld market in the US was in steep decline, the Vita didn't have much of a future, and therefore didn't want to expend significant resources on it. I don't have any insider info or anything, this is just my opinion.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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I don't get this whole fuss about Oculus Rift on GAF is. I'm sure it is cool, but this isn't something that you can see on TV. This would have the same problem as the Wii U and 3DS (to a lesser extent) does. You can't really advertise the thing you're selling, which happens to be a second screen experience and 3D, respectively. Why would VR be something that will become a big hit for any company when you would have to make someone experience it? I just don't see it.
it doesn't have to be the rift, but the rift does appeal to the imagination in a strong way. the whole thing of imagining you're in some world coming to life, where you can look left and right and you are looking left and right- that's pretty crazy.

even on the shitty 480p one, where everything is super pixelated, when i looked to my right at a hallway wall and saw a picture frame, and i could actually see it in good detail, it was nothing i'd really done before.

the step beyond traditional gaming will probably be virtual reality somehow. nintendo's been experimenting with that for years. even after the virtual boy they had the wii remote, the wii fit board, and the 3ds's augmented reality stuff. i would be surprised if it's something they're not seriously considering and experimenting with behind the scenes.

I think SCEA has assumed from day one that the dedicated handheld market in the US was in steep decline, the Vita didn't have much of a future, and therefore didn't want to expend significant resources on it. I don't have any insider info or anything, this is just my opinion.
they really should have picked their sales targets better. 16m -> 5m in shipments was kinda awful for a first year. i think nintendo will experience a repeat of that with their 9m forecast. they'll be lucky to hit 9m ltd in march 2014.
 
Sep 18, 2011
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Wow! It's obvious that the market is saturated at this point. Mostly because of price. I don't see why the HD twins can't be $100 now.
I don't understand it. The GTA5 PS3 bundle is gonna be 300$, isn't it? How's that even possible if the PS4 is only 100$ more expensive. The gen has been overly long, consoles should be thrown at the customers now.
 

jcm

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Dec 8, 2008
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they really should have picked their sales targets better. 16m -> 5m in shipments was kinda awful for a first year. i think nintendo will experience a repeat of that with their 9m forecast. they'll be lucky to hit 9m ltd in march 2014.
Good point. Of course, Sony has always been a loose confederation of warring tribes. It's entirely possible that the guy who greenlights games in Foster City and the guy who does sales forecasting in Tokyo are mortal enemies.
 
I don't understand it. The GTA5 PS3 bundle is gonna be 300$, isn't it? How's that even possible if the PS4 is only 100$ more expensive. The gen has been overly long, consoles should be thrown at the customers now.
Huge investments brought big losses that need to be recouped somehow. Sony lost what, 5 billion dollars with PS3? Good luck making that back sometimes.
 
Jan 25, 2012
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Iwata recently stated that 2014 will be another year with a big amount of Nintendo titles.
Kirby, as said many times, is the most obvious among the unannounced...Rhythm Heaven? Tomodachi Collection in the West?
There's also Mario Golf, Smash Bros, and probably something from HAL. Layton 6 is being published by Nintendo as well.
 
Dec 4, 2012
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I think we're all missing something here: FUSE's retail sales. I wanna see the receipts.
Look up how much EO4 sold a few months ago. It's more than that, but not much. That's all I'm going to say.
Which gaffer is gonna make that thread burying FUSE once and for all with those estimated poor ass sales lol.