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NPD Sales Results for May 2014 [Up1: Wii U Hardware]

Aquamarine

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especially when sales can't hit 150k for the platform.
Wonder if it, along with the Wii U boost, will be enough for Nintendo to actually release PR this time around. This is the third month in a row Nintendo has been extremely silent regarding any sort of sales bragging.
 

prag16

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June could be even tougher to predict than May. Will the Wii U be up month over month? I think it should be, but six figures is asking a lot, probably too much (though the 5 week month gives it a fighting chance).

Will xbone be up month over month? Yes, probably six figures, but I really can't see it doing more than double what it did in May, maybe a tad more in 5 vs. 4 weeks. I can't see it beating PS4 to be honest. (Thus setting off a shitstorm.)

May -> June usually sees a slight increase iirc, plus 5 weeks. PS4 should easily sprint past 200k, but 250? Might be tough.

Is there anything out for the 3DS next month. It was less than 100k this month.
Tomodachi Life. Will it move units? Wouldn't expect huge numbers, but Reggie seemed encouraged, for whatever that's worth.


Changing gears, I'd be interested in where we stand several months later on LTDs for some of the big cross gen multiplats, and how that ended up breaking down. Do we have LTDs for Ghosts and AC4? (including the paltry Wii U totals)
 

ZSaberLink

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June could be even tougher to predict than May. Will the Wii U be up month over month? I think it should be, but six figures is asking a lot, probably too much (though the 5 week month gives it a fighting chance).

Will xbone be up month over month? Yes, probably six figures, but I really can't see it doing more than double what it did in May, maybe a tad more in 5 vs. 4 weeks. I can't see it beating PS4 to be honest. (Thus setting off a shitstorm.)

May -> June usually sees a slight increase iirc, plus 5 weeks. PS4 should easily sprint past 200k, but 250? Might be tough.



Tomodachi Life. Will it move units? Wouldn't expect huge numbers, but Reggie seemed encouraged, for whatever that's worth.
So you think the Wii U week for week will sell less now that MK8 and a bundle is released than before? I'm pretty sure the Wii U was able to pull 80K in February thanks to DKC and I guess Fit U retail + the Lego Movie game, so you'd think it could pull 100K in a 5 week month in June thanks to MK8 just releasing and any kind of hype E3 brought (aka apparently the MK8 bundles = still sold out anecdotally). I thought June was usually a much better month than May according to what everyone was showing before.

I personally think the Wii U will hit 100K in June.

Also are Tomodachi Life, Transformers, and UFC the only games that have/will be releasing this June? So I'd assume the June NPD will be similar software wise except with lower #s for MK8 & Watch Dogs, and maybe these new titles replacing the Amazing Spiderman, etc.

I think MK8 will be above Watch Dogs actually though in June though.
 

donny2112

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So you think the Wii U week for week will sell less now that MK8 and a bundle is released than before?
It it's flat in June, it'll sell ~75K. It'd have to increase over May's weekly average by 33% to hit 100K. Possible with the last week of May apparently selling ~30K Wii Us, but still kind of a tall order.

On the other hand, if the Kinect-less SKU produces no increase for XB1, XB1 would sell 96K. Very different situations now that the Wii U showed it's surprisingly weak hand for May. :/
 

AniHawk

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Wonder if it, along with the Wii U boost, will be enough for Nintendo to actually release PR this time around. This is the third month in a row Nintendo has been extremely silent regarding any sort of sales bragging.
they could have said something regarding mario kart. like it's the best-selling next-gen-only game of the month with only two days of sales, or that the wii is off to the hottest launch in nintendo history.
 

ZSaberLink

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It it's flat in June, it'll sell ~75K. It'd have to increase over May's weekly average by 33% to hit 100K. Possible with the last week of May apparently selling ~30K Wii Us, but still kind of a tall order.

On the other hand, if the Kinect-less SKU produces no increase for XB1, XB1 would sell 96K. Very different situations now that the Wii U showed it's surprisingly weak hand for May. :/
I guess I was comparing it to February and perhaps that's a bad comparison.
 

ZSaberLink

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MK 8 was only out 2 days so Nintendo has to be pleased with these figures. I am very eager to see what happens next month though...
The software figures? Yes they are most likely pleased. Wii U HW? Probably not so much... (unless June is very different).
 

Square2015

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Alright, it's been awhile yes, I'm sorry about that. So I extended NoA's legacy console graph beyond just the first year...

Click to enlarge

The SNES figures are MY estimates ONLY, hopefully soon we'll get the 16-bit NPD figures with the recent interest in the 16-bit console wars again (ie. with the book and movie in production).

WiiU vs. DC, GC...
 

hidys

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Alright, it's been awhile yes, I'm sorry about that. So I extended NoA's legacy console graph beyond just the first year...

Click to enlarge

The SNES figures are MY estimates ONLY, hopefully soon we'll get the 16-bit NPD figures with the recent interest in the 16-bit console wars again (ie. with the book and movie in production).

WiiU vs. DC, GC...
Well shit...

Those are depressing figures.
 

SwiftDeath

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Diddy Kong Racing. Greatest system seller ever!

And wow at how closely Wii U's sale behavior follows Dreamcasts
 

shinra-bansho

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DC v. WIU is interesting. If Sega had been incredibly cash rich I wonder whether they could have come back or not.
I guess I was comparing it to February and perhaps that's a bad comparison.
A major driver of Feb sales is tax refund season. Unless a bunch of people are getting super delayed cheques then it's a strange comparison.
 

ZSaberLink

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DC v. WIU is interesting. If Sega had been incredibly cash rich I wonder whether they could have come back or not.

A major driver of Feb sales is tax refund season. Unless a bunch of people are getting super delayed cheques then it's a strange comparison.
Really? So many people are actually filing their taxes in January? Keep in mind refunds only come in a few weeks after you file the return, and you can file it any time from Jan->April 15th or so. So are tax refunds just a general reason for more sales in Feb-April then?
 

heidern

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Great sales for Watchdogs and pretty good for Mario Kart. But console hardware sales don't seem so good to me. The Wii U bump wasn't spectacular. I guess it did 30K or so the last week, so I'd guess June will probably be down to 8-15K a week for a total of around 50K. It's a fair bit better than last year but still poor.

Xbone down to 77K which was kind of expected after the big drop last month. The price cut announcement may have hurt sales too but then I also think Watchdogs would have increased sales for this month. I don't think it's guaranteed that it will sell over 100K a month over the next few months.

PS4 was flat at just 200K but again would have been boosted by Watchdogs and maybe MLB. Looks like the baseline through the summer may be closer to 150K a month which isn't great for the market leading console.

Last gen obviously down a lot although handhelds did ok. Vita had a nice bump but I don't know what if any momentum it can sustain. 3DS continues it's modest decline from last year but at least is pretty stable.
 

AniHawk

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DC v. WIU is interesting. If Sega had been incredibly cash rich I wonder whether they could have come back or not.
they would have done well in the west, i think. it might have left the market kind of hard to break into in europe for the xbox in particular, and still difficult for the gamecube to gain any ground in general. as far as japan is concerned, sega would have wound up with a second place console two generations in a row.

it's hard to know what we lost. sonic might have taken a different route if sega could have relied on their own fans for support. the series that died on the xbox might have kept going, or at least would have not been as big as flops as they were (shenmue in particular would have probably continued). skies of arcadia ii would have probably happened. ea may not have felt threatened into securing the nfl license for a decade.
 

ZSaberLink

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I really wonder where MK8's 352K already stands in terms of Wii U game sales in NPD.

I assume Nintendo Land (pack-in for Deluxe), NSMBU (I think was 700K+ like by end of 2012), and Mario 3D World (770K) have sold more so far, but I'm curious whether any others have sold more than 352K on the Wii U.
 

Aquamarine

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I really wonder where MK8's 352K already stands in terms of Wii U game sales in NPD.

I assume Nintendo Land (pack-in for Deluxe), NSMBU (I think was 700K+ like by end of 2012), and Mario 3D World (770K) have sold more so far, but I'm curious whether any others have sold more than 352K on the Wii U.
You're too optimistic.
 

shinra-bansho

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Really? So many people are actually filing their taxes in January? Keep in mind refunds only come in a few weeks after you file the return, and you can file it any time from Jan->April 15th or so. So are tax refunds just a general reason for more sales in Feb-April then?
Retailers like Wal-Mart have commented before on the impact of delayed tax season on their sales in February.

But even if it wasn't due to that, it's not a particularly good comparison. In terms of weekly sales rates, February has been the strongest non-holiday (i.e. excluding Nov, Dec) month for the last 5 years. June has typically been around the middle.

And of relevance to this month, May has been the worst or second-worst month for total hardware during that same period. So this might be as low as it gets this year.
 

flak57

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:lol

Going with Goldeneye reaction.
A little of both I think!

For DKR -

"800,000 copies were ordered in the two weeks before Christmas 1997, making it the fastest selling video game at the time, according to the Guinness Book of World Records."
 

Game Guru

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Great sales for Watchdogs and pretty good for Mario Kart. But console hardware sales don't seem so good to me. The Wii U bump wasn't spectacular. I guess it did 30K or so the last week, so I'd guess June will probably be down to 8-15K a week for a total of around 50K. It's a fair bit better than last year but still poor.

Xbone down to 77K which was kind of expected after the big drop last month. The price cut announcement may have hurt sales too but then I also think Watchdogs would have increased sales for this month. I don't think it's guaranteed that it will sell over 100K a month over the next few months.

PS4 was flat at just 200K but again would have been boosted by Watchdogs and maybe MLB. Looks like the baseline through the summer may be closer to 150K a month which isn't great for the market leading console.

Last gen obviously down a lot although handhelds did ok. Vita had a nice bump but I don't know what if any momentum it can sustain. 3DS continues it's modest decline from last year but at least is pretty stable.
I think the main issue might be that Sony and Microsoft are now catering to an audience who buys Day 1. If we assume that the majority of console gamers buy $60 video games Day 1, then... would they not also buy their console Day 1? That might explain why console sales boomed massively with launch but now have a sort of middling or poor performance at the moment. Basically, the sales of the PS4 and XB1 console are tracking just like the typical PS4 and XB1 video game now with a huge launch boom and an extended period of middling sales, because the people who buy games Day 1 will likely also buy a console Day 1.
 

ZSaberLink

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You're too optimistic.
Ah right, that's pretty much impossible given there were like 845K Wii Us by the end of Nov. 2012. That wasn't very logical. Still I remember something like a 70% attach rate at some point. Was that in 2012 in general? Or was that some initial launch week number?

0.7 * 845K = 591K at absolute best even if that 70% attach rate was for all Wii Us sold in the US in 2012. I assume it eventually sold close to 700K without bundling... right? Or is even that too optimistic o_O? I remember that number from an NPD thread like this too..

@Aqua - out of curiosity in the US, LBW > 3DW still?

In some ways Nintendo might benefit from the fact that their audience typically isn't a day 1 audience imo... Since most folks seemingly didn't think the Wii U was an appropriate value for a while, maybe we'll really start seeing some movement around the holidays once both MK8 & Smash are out. If Splatoon still stays early 2015, maybe they'll actually have a lineup starting with Hyrule Warriors until a good way into 2015? Like around 1 title a month?
 

Hermii

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Btw, here's a quote from Reggie about Tomodachi Life:

"We just launched Tomodachi Life. The Tomodachi Life numbers were significantly stronger than we had forecasted and planned. That's because it's a vibrant platform."

Something to talk about for the June NPD?
Maybe that wonderful direct payed off.
 

Psycho_Mantis

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Alright, it's been awhile yes, I'm sorry about that. So I extended NoA's legacy console graph beyond just the first year...

Click to enlarge

The SNES figures are MY estimates ONLY, hopefully soon we'll get the 16-bit NPD figures with the recent interest in the 16-bit console wars again (ie. with the book and movie in production).

WiiU vs. DC, GC...
I think people have come to terms that the WiiU is going to be a bigger failure than the GC by now.

So Bravely Default really did out-sell Lightning Returns. Awesome.
US, yes
WW no.
 

ZSaberLink

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(Bravely outselling LR?)
US, yes
WW no.
BD = 357K (JP) + 258K (US) + EU = 615K (JP+US) + EU
LRFF = 419K (JP) + 206K (US) + EU = 625K (JP+US) + EU

I'm not sure what's the difference b/w the sales of the titles in the EU, but their overall sales are really close if you take the US and JP.
 

Psycho_Mantis

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BD = 357K (JP) + 258K (US) + EU = 615K (JP+US) + EU
LRFF = 419K (JP) + 206K (US) + EU = 625K (JP+US) + EU

I'm not sure what's the difference b/w the sales of the titles in the EU, but their overall sales are really close if you take the US and JP.
Bravely default sold 295k in Japan.
 

1st Course

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Once again NPD say digital > retail, overall $1.46B spent on games in May.

According to the NPD Group, US gamers spent a total of $1.46 billion on gaming hardware and software during May, with roughly half of this coming from digital game sales. New retail sales accounted for $586 million while $124 million was spent on used and rented game titles. Sales of digital content totaled $787 for the month. Hardware accounted for $187 million of these revenues, a huge 95% year-on-year jump.
http://www.gamesindustry.com/us-gamers-spend-1-46-billion-may/
 

demosthenes

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A little of both I think!

For DKR -

"800,000 copies were ordered in the two weeks before Christmas 1997, making it the fastest selling video game at the time, according to the Guinness Book of World Records."
Wow. I stand corrected.
 

QaaQer

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lol, I liked that.

And yeah, I guess there is X. Is it big budget though? or more of an old-skool mid teir game. FFXIII was a 70-100 million USD game.

sörine;117422681 said:
Nintendo and Level 5 recently. Maybe Namco Bandai and Sega depending on how AAA ypu consider Tales and Persona.
I think today, anything under 20 million USD can't really be considered high end.
 

AniHawk

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Bravely default sold 295k in Japan.
the original release did, and then for the sequel (which the us one is based off of) did another 72k. so you're right that bravely default didn't outsell lightning returns- right now they're about even. it will outsell it in the long run though.
 

Aquamarine

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Ah right, that's pretty much impossible given there were like 845K Wii Us by the end of Nov. 2012. That wasn't very logical. Still I remember something like a 70% attach rate at some point. Was that in 2012 in general? Or was that some initial launch week number?

0.7 * 845K = 591K at absolute best even if that 70% attach rate was for all Wii Us sold in the US in 2012. I assume it eventually sold close to 700K without bundling... right? Or is even that too optimistic o_O? I remember that number from an NPD thread like this too..


@Aqua - out of curiosity in the US, LBW > 3DW still?

In some ways Nintendo might benefit from the fact that their audience typically isn't a day 1 audience imo... Since most folks seemingly didn't think the Wii U was an appropriate value for a while, maybe we'll really start seeing some movement around the holidays once both MK8 & Smash are out. If Splatoon still stays early 2015, maybe they'll actually have a lineup starting with Hyrule Warriors until a good way into 2015? Like around 1 title a month?
Don't worry, it has legs, as do lots of other Nintendo games. Few Wii U games have passed 700K or even 350K, but New Super Mario Bros. U definitely did.

Not going to comment on non-USA data.


In the USA:

Launch (Nov. + Dec.) attach rate was like 65%.

And 845K is way off for launch (Nov. + Dec.) Wii U numbers. :p
 

donny2112

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they could have said something regarding mario kart. like it's the best-selling next-gen-only game of the month with only two days of sales, or that the wii is off to the hottest launch in nintendo history.
They already put out info on MK8 before NPD, so there was no need to put out an NPD PR just to reiterate it. They've been doing that a lot, where if they have something they want to say, they'll say it before NPD and say nothing at NPD.

Alright, it's been awhile yes, I'm sorry about that. So I extended NoA's legacy console graph beyond just the first year...

Click to enlarge
For Wii, "supply < demand". You may mean "sold = shipped" instead.
 

Aquamarine

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They already put out info on MK8 before NPD, so there was no need to put out an NPD PR just to reiterate it. They've been doing that a lot, where if they have something they want to say, they'll say it before NPD and say nothing at NPD.
And in this case, Nintendo was able to manipulate the numbers above NPD's reported figures (352K, ~377K) to make sales more impressive.

No, Nintendo did not outright lie. But they did fudge the data (NPD = May 4th through May 31st / Nintendo = May 30th through June 1st...or Nintendo = Retail + Digital sell-through).

I have a hunch that Nintendo decided to treat MK8 sales this way because Iwata's potential re-election is coming up at the end of the month...and he wants to showcase MK8 in the best possible light to investors.
 

Wildarmsjecht

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X1 will have a bump for sure. They are heavily advertising the 399 price tag across television stations all over. If price was truly the only factor, they should at least hit 6 digits.

I am of the persuasion that price was not a meaningful factor into the X1's poor sales. I believe it goes deeper than that, with Brand strength being lower for MS currently and Stronger for Sony at this point.

It will be interesting to see how NPD plays out, but ultimately it will also be interesting to see if the US sales stay in middling numbers and the worldwide numbers are what truly help the consoles hit the various milestones as they fight for that ever delicious 100 million consoles sold.
 

prag16

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And in this case, Nintendo was able to manipulate the numbers above NPD's reported figures (352K, ~377K) to make sales more impressive.

No, Nintendo did not outright lie. But they did fudge the data (NPD = May 4th through May 31st / Nintendo = May 30th through June 1st...or Nintendo = Retail + Digital sell-through).

I have a hunch that Nintendo decided to treat MK8 sales this way because Iwata's potential re-election is coming up at the end of the month...and he wants to showcase MK8 in the best possible light to investors.
I know what you mean, I don't see how what they did should even be considered "fudging the numbers" or "manipulation". They didn't portray it as 5/30-5/31. They said their numbers went through 6/1. There was nothing disingenuous there. They were just controlling the narrative a little bit.
 

Aquamarine

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I know what you mean, I don't see how what they did should even be considered "fudging the numbers" or "manipulation". They didn't portray it as 5/30-5/31. They said their numbers went through 6/1. There was nothing disingenuous there. They were just controlling the narrative a little bit.
The only reason I'm using the "fudging the numbers" term is because they're reporting NPD-esque numbers outside of the NPD reporting period.

They intend for it to be directly compared / used in NPD comparisons because they announced it very close to the data release, and it's very easy for the good majority of people who are ignorant about NPD's methodology to gloss over that extra day and forget to account for it.

But no, it's not manipulation for those who closely read the fine print.
 

Square2015

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Now that we have some updated Square-Enix figures we can update our ALL-TIME Square-Enix RPG USA graph. Color coded for console.
click to enlarge
Titles are in chronological order by system

* = last updated Feb 2009 so those figures are out of date

If anyone can help fill in the gaps please tell...I may have missed some updates.
 

SwiftDeath

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I never knew Kingdom hearts sold that well. I mean KH is #1, KH2 is #3.

What the hell has square been doing that KH3 has taken so long?
 

PanicFreak

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In the embrace of a wind hug.
X1 will have a bump for sure. They are heavily advertising the 399 price tag across television stations all over. If price was truly the only factor, they should at least hit 6 digits.

I am of the persuasion that price was not a meaningful factor into the X1's poor sales. I believe it goes deeper than that, with Brand strength being lower for MS currently and Stronger for Sony at this point.

It will be interesting to see how NPD plays out, but ultimately it will also be interesting to see if the US sales stay in middling numbers and the worldwide numbers are what truly help the consoles hit the various milestones as they fight for that ever delicious 100 million consoles sold.
Someone posted a study not so long ago that said that people were interested in the Xbox One but that those who wanted to buy thought it was too expensive. As a proportion of the people asked the same question about the PS4 the data said that more people were thrown off by the Xbox One's price than by the PS4. I would expect those numbers to be in line with each other after the price drop because I wouldn't expect that fans of the Playstation to be more price elastic than fans of the Xbox.

Therefore, I believe we'll see the true demand for the Xbox this month and throughout the rest of the year. I think that the numbers in the United States will be much closer as long as Microsoft can keep the price in range of Sony.