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[neogaffer1]

So where are the xbox one sales?

76-79k

 

[cafemomo]

Wii U? Vita? Alive? Kicking? I said damn.

both just got a new battery for their pacemaker

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

Known and missing variables, protracting unnumbered pie charts to garner percentages, all crossed reference with given numbers...

....holy hell, this is some hardcore stuff when people are deciphering the numbers out of NPD like mathematical equations.

 

[StevieP]

This would be counting the Wii as part of the contraction when it was really its own thing. The types of AAA games publishers are releasing wouldn't sell well on the Wii. I'm not able to word my point clearly but I'm sure you understand what I'm trying to say. I think it's better to count total sales for the "industry is contracting" comparisons as PS4 + X1 vs. PS3 + 360.

Using something similar to your prediction, let's say 100 mil for PS4 and 40 mil for X1 so 140 mil vs. 160 mil for last gen (80 mil PS3, 80 mil 360, don't have exact numbers). That's not a big deal imo. For the major third party publishers, not having that 100 mil from Wii isn't going to be a big issue considering the types of games they're developing and putting all their money into. Not having that massive Wii audience isn't going to impact Activision's $500 million investment into Destiny, for example.

1. Wii was still a gaming console, not "it's own thing"
2. I highly doubt ps4 will get to 100m units
3. Massive 3rd party profits were made on Wii. Nearly 2/3 of its 900 million software sales were 3rd party iirc. Not a small number for anyone. It's a big issue.

 

[ethomaz]

Using 61K Wii U as base. In 000s.

WII	13
WIU	61
PS3	37
PS4	198
360	58
XBO	79
3DS	90
PSV	58

XBO + 360 + Wii U = 198
PS4 = 198

I think some number is lower or PS4 did 199k.

 

[baekshi]

both just got a new battery for their pacemaker

who knew restocking vita would move numbers

 

[Ottoni_Bastos]

360 was supply constrained. PS3 launched at $599 with major issues in hardware complexity.

Superdata, a data company that works with numerous companies including Microsoft, was predicting a massive contraction and ultimately a crash before this gen even began (knowing full well the hype going into it): http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2013-10-03-gaming-risks-a-repeat-of-1983-crash-report

Some interesting takeaway figures there are the primary gaming platform and its change over time.

2008:
Console = 42%
PC = 37%
Mobile = 5%

2013:
Console = 30%
PC = 51%
Mobile = 13%

These NPD threads would be far more interesting if PC sales figures (which is to say digital/steam) were available. We can check it out for public companies that make it available. It paints an interesting picture to say the least. Here are Ubisofts (from https://www.ubisoftgroup.com/en-US/investor_center/earnings_sales.aspx Fiscal Year Earnings Press Release):

I doubt many here would have ever guessed that PC is currently Ubisoft's best selling platform.

Makes sense! There is two more consoles this year on the market.plus,people are making the transition to PS4/Xone which reduce the old gen share in comparison last year.Next year Ps4 and Xone will probably pick the biggest share though.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Bleh. Since everyone wants to be pedantic. Remeasured.

Angles	Proportion	000s
7.038	0.01955		11
37.472	0.104088889	60
22.481	0.062447222	36
120.774	0.335483333	194
35.387	0.098297222	57
47.464	0.131844444	76
54.538	0.151494444	87
34.846	0.096794444	56

60.1 as base, angles add to 360 degrees. Sum of Xbox + Wii U < PS4. Vita 56K.

For the new page.

 

[Night Angel]

For the new page.

Excellent work.

 

[LowParry]

both just got a new battery for their pacemaker

But no seriously. I get the Wii U with MK8 but Vita? What caused the kick start? No way it could of been Borderlands 2. Have people caught on to the great indie games out there?

 

[AniHawk]

Seems a little off. creamsugar said the PS4 outsold the X1, 360, and Wii U combined.

it's close enough.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

1. Wii was still a gaming console, not "it's own thing"
2. I highly doubt ps4 will get to 100m units
3. Massive 3rd party profits were made on Wii. Nearly 2/3 of its 900 million software sales were 3rd party iirc. Not a small number for anyone. It's a big issue.

- I was using his estimate (110 million).
- Profits for the types of third party games in development and the ones released would have little change if there were a 100 million Wii user base out there. They don't buy those types of games.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I'm confused. So the PS4 sold less than last month with Watch Dogs and MLBTS bundles? Are we sure about this?

This is where you should stop believing that game releases matter.

I mean, they do, of course, but they matter more than just at the release date, which means their impact at the release date is muted, and therefore do not really matter.

 

[Replicant]

Maybe it means average world temperatures since the Xbox One launched have been higher than they were for this point in the lifespan of the Xbox and Xbox 360?

Heatwaves are at it again? Shame on them!

 

[ethomaz]

Bleh. Since everyone wants to be pedantic. Remeasured.

Angles	Proportion	000s
7.038	0.01955		11
37.472	0.104088889	60
22.481	0.062447222	36
120.774	0.335483333	194
35.387	0.098297222	57
47.464	0.131844444	76
54.538	0.151494444	87
34.846	0.096794444	56

60.1 as base, angles add to 360 degrees. Sum of Xbox + Wii U < PS4. Vita 56K.

This one seems right... thanks.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Which I find to be complete and utter bullshit.

They either had a presence on prior consoles, or the market for "core" gaming contracted with the PS3/360.

PS2 155 million
XBX 24 million
GCN 21 million
DC 10 million

Total 210 million units

PS3 84 million
360 83 million

Total 167 million units.

With Wii the total goes to 267 million units.

Either contraction already took place or Wii brought a marginal increase to the market.

Though it starts getting fuzzier the generation before that (PS1/N64/SS) brought in around 145 million players. Generation on generation increases are the expectation. PS2 generation bringing in 65 million new gamers, Wii generation bringing in around 50 million new gamers.

Separating the markets is folly, bullshit, whatever you want to call it. The problem for home consoles isn't that Wii was a fluke or fad. It's that another competitor swooped in and stole them away. This time from the traditionalist market entirely.

PS2 was out for 12 years for those numbers maybe you should wait until PS3 and 360 dead before adding them up to make your point .
Either way the market is going to contract but for certain pub it depends on which group the contraction coming from .
Remember they can still make games for mobile for next part of the market but if hardcore market is what contracting then AAA games fucked .

 

[IAmRandom31]

Bleh. Since everyone wants to be pedantic. Remeasured.

Angles	Proportion	000s
7.038	0.01955		11
37.472	0.104088889	60
22.481	0.062447222	36
120.774	0.335483333	194
35.387	0.098297222	57
47.464	0.131844444	76
54.538	0.151494444	87
34.846	0.096794444	56

60.1 as base, angles add to 360 degrees. Sum of Xbox + Wii U < PS4. Vita 56K.

Looks solid.

Safe to say PS4 is > 8 million now?

 

[jayu26]

Bleh. Since everyone wants to be pedantic. Remeasured.

Angles	Proportion	000s
7.038	0.01955		11
37.472	0.104088889	60
22.481	0.062447222	36
120.774	0.335483333	194
35.387	0.098297222	57
47.464	0.131844444	76
54.538	0.151494444	87
34.846	0.096794444	56

60.1 as base, angles add to 360 degrees. Sum of Xbox + Wii U < PS4. Vita 56K.

This is what I got.

 

[Fine Ham Abounds]

I want to die

 

[Officerrob]

Wii U? Vita? Alive? Kicking? I said damn.

Nah, the body just twitched

 

[Tripon]

Man, Nintendo needs a 3DS revision stat.

 

[CrimsonCommie]

I would swap Wii U and 360.

So Nintendo family > Xbox family?

 

[SwiftDeath]

Using a protractor (might be somewhat off, my protractor is slightly messed up)--

Anyone want to double check my math? I rounded a bit.

Your degrees equal to 364 btw

I got the following

Clockwise on 8 part pie chart

1 Wii 7° 2% [B]<12k[/B]
2 WiU 37° 10.3% [B]60k[/B]
3 PS3 22° 6.15% [B]36k[/B]
4 PS4 120° 33% [B]<193k[/B]
5 360 35° 9.8% [B]57k[/B]
6 XB1 48° 13.35% [B]78k[/B]
7 3DS 56° 15.6% [B]91k[/B]
8 PSV 35° 9.8% [B]57k[/B]

Edit: Nvm Shinra's seems far more accurate

 

[Orthogonal]

Bleh. Since everyone wants to be pedantic. Remeasured.

Angles	Proportion	000s
7.038	0.01955		11
37.472	0.104088889	60
22.481	0.062447222	36
120.774	0.335483333	194
35.387	0.098297222	57
47.464	0.131844444	76
54.538	0.151494444	87
34.846	0.096794444	56

60.1 as base, angles add to 360 degrees. Sum of Xbox + Wii U < PS4. Vita 56K.

I think you Nailed it.

 

[eddfromtheriver]

So Nintendo family > Xbox family?

And Sony > Nintendo familee

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

There´s no way BL2 2 years old port to sell the system. Oh....

The funny part is that it was only 4k difference from the WiiU which had MK8 bundle.

 

[TheXfactor]

if we were to compare to the previous gen, 2007 may npd would be the best comparison.

May NPD 2007

Nintendo DS - 423,000
Wii - 338,000
PSP - 221,000
PlayStation 2 - 188,000
Xbox 360 - 155,000
PlayStation 3 - 82,000

May NPD 2013

Ps4 185k
3ds 85k
One 75k
Wii U 60k
PSV 50k

this new generation has got some work to do, the winning console of this year would have lost to the ps2 in 2007, different circumstances i guess but it is a little worrying

 

[AniHawk]

Man, Nintendo needs a 3DS revision stat.

everyone needs a revision and a price drop and cheaper software and more software.

under 200k for the top-selling platform in the us with the next best-selling platform under 100k is horrifically bad. boy do i hate being right all the time.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

PS2 was out for 12 years for those numbers maybe you should wait until PS3 and 360 dead before saying before add them up to make your point .

At most I expect each to sell another 10 million units a piece.

That's if they stay on shelves for the next four years. Something I doubt Sony in particular does. Which would still equal a deficit of 20-25 million units.

 

[N.Domixis]

Holy Shit! Ps4 won!

 

[Welfare]

What if only one console (PS4) was over 100k last month? Would that be possible?

So I was right?

 

[jayu26]

Holy Shit! Ps4 won!

You expected otherwise?!

 

[ilikesanta]

I was shocked at how low XBO numbers but I forgot they announced the price drop in May, so the drop should be expected. I'm guessing everyone got a boost after E3.

 

[BlackJace]

There´s no way BL2 2 years old port to sell the system. Oh....

The funny part is that it was only 4k difference from the WiiU which had MK8 bundle.

Really?

 

[SwiftDeath]

everyone needs a revision and a price drop and cheaper software and more software.

under 200k for the top-selling platform in the us with the next best-selling platform under 100k is horrifically bad. boy do i hate being right all the time.

So you predicted Vita selling 19 times as much this month then last?

Spoiler

 

[IAmRandom31]

if we were to compare to the previous gen, 2007 may npd would be the best comparison.

May NPD 2007

Nintendo DS - 423,000
Wii - 338,000
PSP - 221,000
PlayStation 2 - 188,000
Xbox 360 - 155,000
PlayStation 3 - 82,000

May NPD 2013

Ps4 185k
3ds 85k
One 75k
Wii U 60k
PSV 50k

this new generation has got some work to do, the winning console of this year would have lost to the ps2 in 2007, different circumstances i guess but it is a little worrying

Nah just compare it with the 360 / PS3 since those were the new consoles

PS4 > 360
X1 < PS3

 

[orochi91]

Bleh. Since everyone wants to be pedantic. Remeasured.

Angles	Proportion	000s
7.038	0.01955		11
37.472	0.104088889	60
22.481	0.062447222	36
120.774	0.335483333	194
35.387	0.098297222	57
47.464	0.131844444	76
54.538	0.151494444	87
34.846	0.096794444	56

60.1 as base, angles add to 360 degrees. Sum of Xbox + Wii U < PS4. Vita 56K.

They way you deduced this is impressive. GG.

 

[Guevara]

Xbox One sales seem actually bad. I guess everyone is waiting for the unbundling?

 

[MilesTeg]

There´s no way BL2 2 years old port to sell the system. Oh....

The funny part is that it was only 4k difference from the WiiU which had MK8 bundle.

It was a new model and released far earlier in the month than MK8. Honestly it's a pretty bad number. Vita will be back to to normal in June.

 

[Neuromancer]

Chickens still coming home to roost. I honestly don't expect next month to be that much better for MS.

 

[AniHawk]

So you predicted Vita selling 19 times as much this month then last?

Spoiler

yes, but i intentionally posted incorrect numbers in the prediction thread because it would be more fun for everyone else.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Xbox One sales seem actually bad. I guess everyone is waiting for the unbundling?

We really really hope so.

It bodes very bad things if this is close to the new baseline.

 

[oggob]

Bleh. Since everyone wants to be pedantic. Remeasured.

Angles	Proportion	000s
7.038	0.01955		11
37.472	0.104088889	60
22.481	0.062447222	36
120.774	0.335483333	194
35.387	0.098297222	57
47.464	0.131844444	76
54.538	0.151494444	87
34.846	0.096794444	56

60.1 as base, angles add to 360 degrees. Sum of Xbox + Wii U < PS4. Vita 56K.

Yep... and based on these numbers, I have put a semi transparent graph over the top of creamsugar's graph and got this... pretty much exact.

 

[silva1991]

Nothing new about the beast 4

and 3ds is the second and not xbox1?

wow


congrats Sony/Nintendo

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

This is what I'm expecting. Especially considering the comments Reggie made.

Was the Reggie comment about June or total? It makes a huge difference if he meant total.

 

[N.Domixis]

You expected otherwise?!

Nah, Im joking.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Updated Summary with Shinra's splits for consoles

Edit: See HERE for most up-to-date summary

PS4 ~ 194k
3DS ~ 87k
XB1 ~ 76k
Wii U ~ 60k
360 ~ 57k
PSV ~ 56k
PS3 ~ 36k
Wii ~ 11k
-----------------------------
Mario Kart 8 ~= 375k, 6.6% from bundles
-----------------------------
Watch Dogs Sales Breakdown

PS4 ~ 46%
XB1 ~ 29%
360 ~ 14%
PS3 ~ 11%

Total > 1.25M
-----------------------------
Minecraft PS3 89k
-----------------------------
Wolfenstein New Order

PS4 ~ 41%
XB1 ~ 38%
360 ~ 13%
PS3 ~ 8%
-----------------------------
BL2 Vita Standalone ~27k
-----------------------------

 

[Gentleman Jack]

Someone should really double check my numbers, my protractor melted together with a triangle so I wasn't able to be really accurate.

hahahaha

this image is a keeper

 

[pieatorium]

At most I expect each to sell another 10 million units a piece.

That's if they stay on shelves for the next four years. Something I doubt Sony in particular does. Which would still equal a deficit of 20-25 million units.

if you take the 20ish million core nintendo that your adding to the ps2 generation but not ps3 it looks more even and I would contest your point from the previous post about the competition coming mostly from outside the traditional market. PC has continued to grow throughout the generation targeting mostly the same poeple as consoles.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

It was a new model and released far earlier in the month than MK8. Honestly it's a pretty bad number. Vita will be back to to normal in June.

Dat salt.