NPD Sales Results for November 2013 [Up3: Zelda, Pokemon, Mario, 3DS, Wii U]
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The install base had quite a bit to do with that, though. If Titanfall is a bigger hit, but PS4 has more units, the base will shift. All of the games you mentioned also ran better on the 360, not the case this time around.
Look at PS2 GTA sales vs Xbox, then look at this generation. Base shifted.
Edit: Beatd hard by Bruce
Look at PS2 GTA sales vs Xbox, then look at this generation. Base shifted.
Edit: Beatd hard by Bruce
The trend for certain games was cemented even in cases where the userbases were not in one company's favor, like Metal Gear Rising on PS3 in America, PES on PS3 in UK, or Splinter Cell on 360 in a number of European countries. It isn't just that one side gets accustomed to that brand, the other side may pick up other games in the meantime and grow attached to them, making that brand not mean as much to them. For example, Destiny might become much bigger on PS4 thanks to the TItanFall/Halo vacuum.
Edit 2: I fully expect Metal Gear Solid 5 to sell better on PS3 than on 360 or Xbox One in the US.
Of course the game will sell more total if the PS4 is in the mix, but getting the first edition (even if it was just a timed exclusive, which TF doesn't appear to be) has traditionally been a strong indicator of future franchise success on that platform.
Edit: GTA is cross-generation, and a bit of a poor example. The previous GTA games all appeared (and sold well) on the Xbox, albeit they were all timed exclusive on PS2. There was no reason for GTA owners to upgrade specifically to PS360 until after the game was out. The Xbox One will have at least one year as the only next gen platform to play TF, so it will have existing XOne owners as well as most upgrading 360 TF owners in that time (most people won't be aware that a PS4 version is in the pipeline).
Edit 2: I fully expect Metal Gear Solid 5 to sell better on PS3 than on 360 or Xbox One in the US.
Of course the game will sell more total if the PS4 is in the mix, but getting the first edition (even if it was just a timed exclusive, which TF doesn't appear to be) has traditionally been a strong indicator of future franchise success on that platform.
Edit: GTA is cross-generation, and a bit of a poor example. The previous GTA games all appeared (and sold well) on the Xbox, albeit they were all timed exclusive on PS2. There was no reason for GTA owners to upgrade specifically to PS360 until after the game was out. The Xbox One will have at least one year as the only next gen platform to play TF, so it will have existing XOne owners as well as most upgrading 360 TF owners in that time (most people won't be aware that a PS4 version is in the pipeline).
Several reasons played into it - out longer, buy 2 get 1 free sales, and fewer exclusives. I think PS4 will hold an advantage in the future with multi-plats, but it won't resemble these numbers. I guess Tomb Raider will be the first game to release across both platforms at the same exact time since November. It should be a pretty good indicator.
If Titanfall does revelent business for the Xbox platform, then I expect MS to at least secure the sequel as X1 exclusive. Read interviews with any MS exec and they say the franchise is a big part of thier plans and how they have a great relationship with Respawn.
Titanfall 3 is when the series goes multi IMO.
Titanfall 3 is when the series goes multi IMO.
Do you know how much MS would have to pay to keep it exclusive to the platform? To cover the theoretical capital the game could make on another system especially a system that could still be leading in sales.
There is a reason Bioshock, ME and others were only 1 game deals. You don't think MS wanted to lock those franchises down or didn't try?
You need to use a bit of common sense with something like this. There is no precedent for what your describing. Its just wishful thinking.
Ah yeah I see what you mean. I completely agree with that notion that for the most part whatever system is branded with the IP is typically the one with the higher sales I am just talking about how unlikely any further exclusivity of the game is on one platform.
There is a reason Bioshock, ME and others were only 1 game deals. You don't think MS wanted to lock those franchises down or didn't try?
You need to use a bit of common sense with something like this. There is no precedent for what your describing. Its just wishful thinking.
Ah yeah I see what you mean. I completely agree with that notion that for the most part whatever system is branded with the IP is typically the one with the higher sales I am just talking about how unlikely any further exclusivity of the game is on one platform.
This is quite true. If the game sells 3-5 million copies there's no moneyhat big enough to keep it exclusive, especially since the 360 will be quite dead by the time the sequel releases. Gears isn't a good comparison, as MS was the publisher in that case. MS would be better served spending their money propping up the next big thing and/or getting some exclusive DLC.
In the case of Rising, the Metal Gear Solid fanbase already owned PS3's for MGS4, so it's natural that it would sell much better on that platform.
The Titanfall case is a lot harder to predict because it's hitting really early in the generation, and is also coming out on PC & 360 simultaneously. Between that and Halo 5, it will probably push major fans of the shooter genre to go with Xbox, but they were probably leaning that way regardless. On the other hand, PS4 is likely to amass a decent install base lead in 2014-15 and will probably get the better version of Titanfall 2.
If Titanfall ends up becoming a huge franchise with broad appeal, like GTA or Call of Duty, the install base will likely end up becoming the overriding factor in how well it sells on each platform. If it were more niche, like Rising, then a large preference for the original exclusive platform would be expected. My bet is that Titanfall ends up being a case of the former.
The Titanfall case is a lot harder to predict because it's hitting really early in the generation, and is also coming out on PC & 360 simultaneously. Between that and Halo 5, it will probably push major fans of the shooter genre to go with Xbox, but they were probably leaning that way regardless. On the other hand, PS4 is likely to amass a decent install base lead in 2014-15 and will probably get the better version of Titanfall 2.
If Titanfall ends up becoming a huge franchise with broad appeal, like GTA or Call of Duty, the install base will likely end up becoming the overriding factor in how well it sells on each platform. If it were more niche, like Rising, then a large preference for the original exclusive platform would be expected. My bet is that Titanfall ends up being a case of the former.
I think the 360 being out early did a few things, but its ease of development and Microsoft's legwork with the developer and enthusiast press communities were important too.
360 being out early meant that hardcore gamers went there en masse to get a taste of next gen. If you wanted next gen, you had no other option. So you had a very hardcore base of gamers that buy lots of games playing the role of evangelizer and tastemaker. I think that is genuinely important.
Then 360 just was a far better place for western developers, who were going to rule the gen, to develop. So it became lead platform and stayed lead platform for either the entire gen or most of the gen for most studios.
The lead was hugely important and not just because of how the machine sold before PS3 game out...which wasn't spectacular, but was good enough.
360 being out early meant that hardcore gamers went there en masse to get a taste of next gen. If you wanted next gen, you had no other option. So you had a very hardcore base of gamers that buy lots of games playing the role of evangelizer and tastemaker. I think that is genuinely important.
Then 360 just was a far better place for western developers, who were going to rule the gen, to develop. So it became lead platform and stayed lead platform for either the entire gen or most of the gen for most studios.
The lead was hugely important and not just because of how the machine sold before PS3 game out...which wasn't spectacular, but was good enough.
Microsoft doesn't care about exclusivity with the Titanfall franchise. They just want it to be a Call of Duty-esque situation, ie. despite being on every platform in existence, its brand is basically synonymous with the Xbox brand from a consumer perception standpoint with a sales breakdown to back that up. Timed exclusivity will do that for you, as seen by countless games last generation.
If Titanfall 2 is multiplatform, its brand will be associated with Xbox, a perception that will be reinforced at press conferences where Microsoft gives them the floor for 10 minutes, advertisement exclusives that will basically push the game as an 'Xbox game,' exclusive DLC/Map packs, etc. It's pretty much a given.
If Titanfall 2 is multiplatform, its brand will be associated with Xbox, a perception that will be reinforced at press conferences where Microsoft gives them the floor for 10 minutes, advertisement exclusives that will basically push the game as an 'Xbox game,' exclusive DLC/Map packs, etc. It's pretty much a given.
You're still missing the overall point--if the PS4 moves more units, then that's that.
Funny enough, your example also works for Titanfall--it is also cross-generation, but there's no guarantee that the platform itself will retain that audience--if anything, the opposite is happening.
It hasn't really been a strong indicator of anything by itself--there were more factors around it which had more of an impact.
And there's not an indication that this is going to actually matter yet--if you have all of the above, but are dealing with a 60-35-5 market split, all the PR in the world won't matter because it'll still sell better on the market leading platform.
Funny enough, your example also works for Titanfall--it is also cross-generation, but there's no guarantee that the platform itself will retain that audience--if anything, the opposite is happening.
It hasn't really been a strong indicator of anything by itself--there were more factors around it which had more of an impact.
And there's not an indication that this is going to actually matter yet--if you have all of the above, but are dealing with a 60-35-5 market split, all the PR in the world won't matter because it'll still sell better on the market leading platform.
mattiewheels
And then the LORD David Bowie saith to his Son, Jonny Depp: 'Go, and spread my image amongst the cosmos. For every living thing is in anguish and only the LIGHT shall give them reprieve.'
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We don't know exactly what their contract with EA includes. It's entirely possible that EA has an option to publish future games in the franchise, even if they have no rights to the IP.
Regardless, where else would they go to find a giant publisher? Activision burned their bridges with Respawn, so that leaves Take Two and their 2K games label as the most likely alternative.
Regardless, where else would they go to find a giant publisher? Activision burned their bridges with Respawn, so that leaves Take Two and their 2K games label as the most likely alternative.
mattiewheels
And then the LORD David Bowie saith to his Son, Jonny Depp: 'Go, and spread my image amongst the cosmos. For every living thing is in anguish and only the LIGHT shall give them reprieve.'
- Dec 1, 2004
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