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NPD Sales Results for November 2013 [Up3: Zelda, Pokemon, Mario, 3DS, Wii U]

Jul 31, 2007
24,446
1
0
36
Kansas, USA
Not really. The Wii as a platform seems to have an extremely short term effect on the market and it's influence is basically gone at this point.



not really. Those gamers ran in and ran out before the generation was over, growing and contracting so fast that there simply wasn't time for anyone to plan a decent business strategy around them. Look at the strategy EA, Activision, Ubi, MS, and Sony are using for next gen. Kinect aside (which is being used for TV functions more than anything gaming related) the business strategy is almost identical to that during the PS2 era, and they're targeting the same gamers.



Moderate, sustainable growth is actually preferable to massive unsustainable spikes for the industry. you can't plan for those. They're good for speculators looking to cash in quickly, and that's about it.



You're assuming the entire PS3+360+Wii audience was all one market. it wasn't. It was clearly two separate and distinct markets, one of which has moved on from gaming.

The core market (which has existed from the NES era going forward) continues to grow and expand. Exclaiming "the market is contracting!!" makes as much sense as looking at the tech or housing bubbles in the stock market and claiming the market MUST be weaker now since those investors are gone- no, the market is stronger now and that growth is actually the sustainable, realistic growth that platform holders and third parties desire, not the fickle audience that drops your business for the next big thing and ruins you, as nintendo found out the hard way.
I doubt that audience is gone.

They just won't be buying Nintendo this time around. I'm hoping they can be salvaged because I'm pretty sure they weren't just there and then gone. Some might be. I'm pretty sure more than a few of those people in old folks homes are dead now, but I'm pretty sure there is overlap between those early Wii buyers, and the late buying casual owners of the PS2.

But no seriously given similar timeframes PS3/360 are only about what? 10 million units ahead of the PS2 alone last gen in America? 15 million units? Acting like Wii's exponential growth is something that can be written off is folly. I hope some of them became dedicated gamers willing to buy dedicated hardware. Time will tell though. Again otherwise the cries at the end of this generation will not be "Marginal growth!" but "Home console market in freefall."
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
Yes, I realise that NA includes more, but 300K for SCEA's other territories doesn't really fit proportionally well. It's a larger ratio than would be normal.

And the PS4 was like $1000 or something ridiculous in Brazil so basically sold nothing there.

Canada is usually about 10% of the US, so 100K, and I really can't see it having done 200K in Mexico and whatever other LA launch countries there were.
 

chadboban

Member
May 11, 2013
3,336
0
0
Well, the Wii U numbers were around where I thought, and Pachter's analysis was in the range I looked at despite being off as usual. Man I can't wait for Nintendo's shareholders meeting, it's going to be fun.

I'm really sad to see things like this happening, but they need to really agree a new strategy is needed. I want them to keep making consoles, they just need to realize the Wii U can only have 4-5 years max.

Great to see A Link Between Worlds doing well, and the 3DS holding water despite underwhelming with Pokemon releasing in November.
Pretty sure you made an error but Pokemon was in October.
 

Sho_Nuff82

Member
Jan 2, 2007
39,633
1
0
Dead Rising 3 well on the way to 1.2 million.

NA includes Canada, NPD doesn't, right?



299,999 in those.

1 in Brazil
Why do people continually act like Canada and Mexico aren't real places?

Not gonna happen. X360 have bigger user base 70 mil vs 4-5 mil. X360 version will definitely sell more as long as it good enough, and famous said it's shaping quite well.
It's actually 80 million, but looking at how the hw sales are dropping I'm guessing it'll have a poor 2014 as more users upgrade to PS4/Xbone. FPS fans seem to upgrading pretty quickly, nearly 15 % of COD sales at launch points towards much better figures for new IPs next year.
 

Loudninja

Member
Jul 30, 2007
53,089
0
0
30
Chicago
Yes, I realise that NA includes more, but 300K for SCEA's other territories doesn't really fit proportionally well. It's a larger ratio than would be normal.

And the PS4 was like $1000 or something ridiculous in Brazil so basically sold nothing there.
Sony is not playing around.
 

Nightengale

Member
Jun 12, 2013
21,443
0
500
500k and expecting sellout in Asia? Is this real life famousmortimer?
I'll share an Asian perspective.

During the PS1 and PS2 generation, many Asian countries bought consoles because they were easily piratable and our markets here openly allows pirated goods.

So when the Ps3 generation came,many held back from buying new consoles at launch, hoping for there to be a similar pirate situation.

However, the failures of subsequent consoles post-360 to be Jailbroken to the level that it could be a grey market economy has shaped the perspective that the era of convenient pirated games on consoles are pretty much never coming back.

So demand is higher than the norm for Asia. Because buyers no longer expect that these consoles will ever be the same as they used to.
 

Manmademan

Member
Nov 3, 2006
30,707
0
945
your insistent use of WW figures when he repeatedly mentions USA only can stop, you know
where in that post you quoted do I use any figures, worldwide or otherwise? Those points are valid whether you're talking EU, US, or WW- it's about business strategy and market bubbles. raw numbers are irrelevant.
 

CCIE

Banned
Oct 17, 2013
2,727
0
0
MS gave up the rest of the world to try and break even in the US. Good for them. The One is built primarily for the US anyway. Sony going for global sales. Exactly what I expected.
 
Jan 19, 2013
1,318
0
0
Interesting titanfall facts.

The 360 build is shaping up very nicely.

The xb1 build is looking like it's sticking with 720p.

The PC build will shit on the xb1 build.

Social metrics (twitter mentions, youtube views, etc) as dumb as they are usually are accurate predictors. Tf is trending behind infamous.


There's also some talk that titanfall 1 is going to feel more like the outline of a game moreso than a full title. It's laying the groundwork.


I'm excited as fuck to play titanfall. I will be there day one. But if you think it's going to do more than give the xb1 more than a couple hundred K bump over a couple months you're fooling yourself.
The social metrics stat is surprising given how hard the game is being pushed. I think it will be pushed harder than any launch game by far so I'd expect it to start doing better there.

I do agree that it won't be as huge a system seller for the Xbox One as people think. First, its available on the 360 and the PC and its not a particularly graphics intensive game so the 360 version will likely do most people fine. Second, I don't think it has COD/Halo level appeal because it is an online only game. A very significant number of people buy the big FPS titles for the campaigns and the lack of anything like one is going to hurt. My best guess is that it will boost Xbox One sales significantly only at launch week. The first real system seller exclusive for the Xbox One is Halo 5. That will cause a pretty decent surge in sales.
 

Jabba

Banned
Mar 25, 2012
2,037
0
0
Interesting titanfall facts.

The 360 build is shaping up very nicely.

The xb1 build is looking like it's sticking with 720p.

The PC build will shit on the xb1 build.

Social metrics (twitter mentions, youtube views, etc) as dumb as they are usually are accurate predictors. Tf is trending behind infamous.


There's also some talk that titanfall 1 is going to feel more like the outline of a game moreso than a full title. It's laying the groundwork.


I'm excited as fuck to play titanfall. I will be there day one. But if you think it's going to do more than give the xb1 more than a couple hundred K bump over a couple months you're fooling yourself.
Yeah it could move some units but what's to stop consumers from getting on the other two platforms? Goes like this,

a) Hey dude just got TF.
b) Oh yeah, how is it?
a) It's great, you gotta get it.
b) You bought an XB1?
a) No, I bought it on 360.
b) Oh shit, I'll get it for that then.

So on and so forth.
The investment will be $60 instead of $560 if they're not ready to upgrade. Assuming they already have live.

It's quite a plausible scenario. I have no idea what's is actually going to happen. TF could sell shit tons on 360 and really not help XB1 enough.
 

darkside31337

Tomodachi wa Mahou
May 31, 2011
34,803
1
645
Why do people continually act like Canada and Mexico aren't real places?
Try the rest of the world too. Crazy how people are in here are saying its a mistake for Sony to send out 500k units to Asia and every other market outside of the US/UK as if those people don't matter or whatever.
 

ethomaz

Member
Mar 19, 2013
29,603
11,043
955
37
Brazil
About Brazil... the rumors says Sony shipped a little over 5k units to here (my guesses are 8k for launch)... I have a Brazilian PS4 with Sony Brasil warranty and all (I didn't paid R$4k... $2.7k with Killlzone).
 

Manmademan

Member
Nov 3, 2006
30,707
0
945
I doubt that audience is gone.

They just won't be buying Nintendo this time around. I'm hoping they can be salvaged because I'm pretty sure they weren't just there and then gone. Some might be. I'm pretty sure more than a few of those people in old folks homes are dead now, but I'm pretty sure there is overlap between those early Wii buyers, and the late buying casual owners of the PS2.

But no seriously given similar timeframes PS3/360 are only about what? 10 million units ahead of the PS2 alone last gen in America? 15 million units? Acting like Wii's exponential growth is something that can be written off is folly. I hope some of them became dedicated gamers willing to buy dedicated hardware. Time will tell though. Again otherwise the cries at the end of this generation will not be "Marginal growth!" but "Home console market in freefall."
Given similar timeframes that's actually reasonable growth (10 million unit advantage would be a 20% growth), especially when you consider the PS3 and 360 (ps3 in particular) were selling at significantly higher price points in the middle of the largest economic collapse since the great depression.

personally I'm shocked they're ahead at ALL.
 

Totobeni

An blind dancing ho
Nov 3, 2007
18,732
0
0
3DS Estimate: 770K [November 2012 was 540K, November 2011 was 795K]
With lower price point and the even cheaper 2DS and just getting Pokemon and Zelda is this even good number for it? or does the new gen systems releases effected it?
 

Sushen

Member
Aug 24, 2007
2,248
9
1,045
Interesting titanfall facts.

There's also some talk that titanfall 1 is going to feel more like the outline of a game moreso than a full title. It's laying the groundwork.
I agree with this idea. Just like most franchises, the first one is a setup, and the full idea comes around the sequel, especially considering the timing of the release. Probably, that's why activision did the exclusive deal because titanfall 2 will be the actual main force.
 

KoopaTheCasual

Junior Member
Jun 5, 2013
8,817
0
340
New York, NY
Then this prior generation that lasted longer than the generation before it saw marginal if not nonexistent growth. That would be bad. I hope that some of those 40 million(since I've been talking exclusively USA) are still planning on buying or that Sony and MS make up some of that difference. Otherwise the stories being told by investors will be "Home console market in freefall."

Where did I call anyone a name?
Sorry, my reading comprehension has gone to shit. For some reason, I thought you were calling me asinine (which doesn't even make sense). Forget that comment.

Well yes, if you account for the 1 year difference, the market didn't grow much at all, but does that necessarily imply that it will start to decline? Can it not mean that the market size has reached stability and saturation of the accessible markets? (Not even being rhetorical, sort of actually asking you) I wouldn't ignore the Wii completely, but I feel like a great deal of the 100 million owners were people, who had no previous interest in console gaming, who purchased the system for games like Wii Sports, due to the motion control fad. I will admit I have no hard numbers to prove that, but I doubt those customers would materialize again this gen, regardless of what Sony, Nintendo, or Microsoft did.

So when you say you see strong growth and then a free falling market, I say I see a stable market with an outlying data point. (again, this hinges on if you believe something like console gaming could ever be considered stable with such a flux of developing countries and shrinking markets)
 

TyrantII

Member
Oct 26, 2013
6,920
0
0
Boston
Maybe not. CoD does really, really well not just because of the gameplay but also because of the aesthetic. It's very appealing to that dudebro demographic. I remember seeing some of them looking at Halo 3 a while back and the conversation included this gem: "I don't want to shoot stupid aliens; I want to shoot people."

Titanfall's heavy sci-fi vibe could be a turn-off for those dudebro types. I'm waiting eagerly to see how it does.

Incidentally, it's heavy sci-fi vibe is why I'm so much more excited for it than the next CoD or Battlefield. :p
Remember mechs are nerdy. They're not mechs. They're TITANS™!

LOL

Good luck with that. Also with being an exclusive.
 

SwiftDeath

Member
May 31, 2013
23,627
0
0
Not sure if it's mentioned but from Cream Sugars breakdown of multiplatform games I get roughly 23% more sold on PS4 on average hence PS4's numbers would be around 1118K in US
 

Sean

Banned
Jun 14, 2004
14,673
2
0
The 3rd party software splits aren't surprising, because as CreamSugar's posts show, XB1 had far more popular exclusives. ShadowFall was the only PS4 exclusive to sell on the level of Ryse, FM5 or DR3. Not surprising more PS4 owners turned to 3rd parties in the circumstances.
Plus the B2G1 sales on PS4 software. That was the main reason I bought a bunch of multiplats on PS4.

It was stupid of MS not to match that deal.
 

rdrr gnr

Member
Aug 18, 2010
10,509
0
0
So on and so forth.
The investment will be $60 instead of $560 if they're not ready to upgrade. Assuming they already have live.

It's quite a plausible scenario. I have no idea what's is actually going to happen. TF could sell shit tons on 360 and really not help XB1 enough.
Well, that's the thing. If one friend is likely to have purchased TF first and is enthusiastic about it, they very may have purchased it for Xbone instead of 360. MS is going to push that game hard.