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NPD Sales Results for November 2015 [Up3: Combined Hardware For PS4 + XB1 + Wii U]

Elandyll

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Oct 13, 2014
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Wow. I really don't know what to say.
That he is voting with his wallet, which is a good thing?

It's not like he is calling for a boycott or anything.

Frankly, if they are going to release the game full price ("definitive edition" or not), I'll probably wait for a cheap version myself.

You should reap what you sow imo.
 

Nightengale

Member
Jun 12, 2013
21,443
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500
Yup, looks like in the initial agreement they couldn't even talk about the other versions of the game before the Xbox release.

SE wanted to talk PS4/PC versions, after the lackluster reception/pre orders of ROTR, to try and at least build some anticipation for the other versions, hence renegotiation, and delaying the PS4 version was the cost.

Not being allowed to talk about other versions make sense, it's common in many timed exclusivity deals. Enforcing pretense of not-coming-to-other-platforms until the game is out for X amount of time.

But the latter is well... the less said the better.

Avoiding UC4 is not worth the cost of making your game be "one year old" in the mind of the regular mass market who will be dazzled by new games next fall. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that.
 

EGM1966

Member
Aug 5, 2011
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Wow. I really don't know what to say.

To be fair this is exactly why the deal was always a bad idea. Think about it:


  • SE released the reboot cross platform on PS4, PS3, XB1 and 360 (and PC)
  • More customers bought the game on PS4/PS3 than XB1/360
  • They then make the sequel timed to the smaller install base (XB1/360) basically putting a deal before the majority of their existing customers for the reboot take on the franchise

It's no surprise that effectively punishing the majority of their customers has produced such harsh reactions.

At core, given the install base dynamics of the reboot, the deal just went against 101 basic marketing and PR common sense.

It was a deal that shouldn't have been made and the damage is pretty severe for the franchise as can be seen with absolutely lackluster sales, approx 12 months of recriminations and on-going backlash from their customers, souring of relationship between MS and SE (I believe the hints on this forum in this regard) and likely a tepid launch on PS4 unless SE work very, very hard to show value to their customers on that platform.

Why should PS4/PS3 owners feel anything other than satisfaction at seeing a company that effectively shunned them get what's arguably it's just rewards for failing at one of the most common and general business principles in the digital age (You put your customers first)?


The whole thing would make a perfect case study for a business management and marketing degree course as an example of how to completely fuck up something like this.
 

gundamkyoukai

Member
Aug 30, 2009
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Well, here are the comparable # of games released for each platform:

PS4 Release Count (as of Sept 2015) - 156
PS3 Release Count through Dec 2008 - 225

Xbox One Release Count (as of Sept 2015) - 129
Xbox 360 Release Count through Dec 2007 - 217

Wii U Release Count (as of Sept 2015) - 120
Wii Release Count through Dec 2008 - 458

Decline in tie ratio due to a number of factors, one of them being far fewer choice.

(Yeah, September vs full year is not fully apples:apples and the new gen release count will be higher. But I only do my release count analysis once a quarter so look at it as directional. I'll do a deeper release count look and post it in January.)

Interesting .
Funny enough i would say i buy the same amount of disc base games ( i get them on DD )
But i play way more games than i did comapre to last gen for the same time frame.
Plus and DD sales have really change my spending and gaming habits .
 

Chobel

Member
Mar 26, 2013
15,673
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515

Smart move.

BTW please note my first post on this subject specifically mentioned a factor will be what mft costs will be 6-9 months from now

Sorry for the late reply. Yes, if MS can substantially reduce the costs of manufacturing XBO (say $150 less) then there's a big chance they'll do $199. However I doubt that's gonna happen that early (in 2016 it will be less than 3 year into this gen).
 
Jun 16, 2004
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Yup, looks like in the initial agreement they couldn't even talk about the other versions of the game before the Xbox release.

SE wanted to talk PS4/PC versions, after the lackluster reception/pre orders of ROTR, to try and at least build some anticipation for the other versions, hence renegotiation, and delaying the PS4 version was the cost. My guy said SE didn't mind this as the delay meant it avoided UC4's release.

So they wanted to talk about the other versions of the game, but in order to do so they had to agree to push one of those other versions so far back that it's no longer worth talking about at that point?

All they've said at this point is a release window for the other versions, that was worth seriously handicapping the PS4 version?

I am now really curious to see what happens when they do start talking about the other versions. If the PC is Q1 then I can't see them doing anything other than the base game for full price, but at this point I don't even think a DE with all DLC content at full price is going to cut it for PS4.
 

Primethius

Banned
Jan 20, 2008
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That SE thought to push the PS4 version into the holidays just so they could talk about the game...

Like, that has to take the cake in terms of stupid moves in a whole series of em.
 

autoduelist

Member
Aug 30, 2014
13,888
28,180
1,040
I think you're underestimating how uninteresting a year-old game is in the fall release window.

Yup. The sad truth is this:

Now that I have to wait 1 year to play it, I'm going to expect it to release as a GOTY edition with all DLC - at the very least, maybe some bonus content. I also expect it to release at no more than $50, preferably $40. And when I say 'expect', I don't mean I necessarily think that will happen, just that there is no way I'd spend $60.

BUT -- [and this is huge] -- since I already waited a year for it, it will be no problem convincing myself to wait even longer [especially since other new, shiny games will be releasing]. If I can wait a year, I can wait another 6 months for it to be in the $10-$15 range [new or used, don't care which].

I doubt I'm alone, and that will definitely hurt sales of the PS4 version.
 

hawk2025

Member
Jan 20, 2013
15,488
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0
Forget the whole "I've waited, so now I can wait longer" logic.

Sure, I understand that for GAF posters that are already keenly aware of the game.

The problem is everyone else if they have any hope of having a hit -- Microsoft's marketing did nothing for the game. But the problem is that now Square Enix has to market the game again.


Twice. In the Spring and the Fall.
 

newjeruse

Member
Apr 5, 2010
4,340
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0
Yup. The sad truth is this:

Now that I have to wait 1 year to play it, I'm going to expect it to release as a GOTY edition with all DLC - at the very least, maybe some bonus content. I also expect it to release at no more than $50, preferably $40. And when I say 'expect', I don't mean I necessarily think that will happen, just that there is no way I'd spend $60.

BUT -- [and this is huge] -- since I already waited a year for it, it will be no problem convincing myself to wait even longer [especially since other new, shiny games will be releasing]. If I can wait a year, I can wait another 6 months for it to be in the $10-$15 range [new or used, don't care which].

I doubt I'm alone, and that will definitely hurt sales of the PS4 version.
ROTR is $40 now and will be $20 by the summer. Barring something revelatory in the DLC, they can't go
a cent over $40.
 

RibMan

Member
Aug 29, 2011
2,733
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Imru’ al-Qays;189032900 said:
Great post. Where do you think the rot began to set in, by the way? Was it the post-Kinect drought? Halo 4? Letting Bungie go?

There have been a lot of catastrophically bad decisions that've gotten Microsoft to this point. It's almost hard to figure out how far back to go.

I think we got a whiff of Microsoft's perspective on their customers back in 2007. This was the beginning of the end of sorts -- the point where people started to question just how much more consumer friendly Microsoft was compared to Sony. Remember, this was around the time when the public opinion around PlayStation was still in the negative due to the (now infamous) $599.99 price announcement.

After Moore's infamous trivialization of widespread consumer complaints (and subsequent departure), Shane Kim's 'out of touchness' with the Xbox business (Resident Evil 5 'announcement') and departure, other people instrumental in the Xbox business leaving (Bach, Allard), it became clear that things at Xbox were changing. Now, change can absolutely be a good thing, however, the changes that were made at Microsoft led to the Kinect being a key part of the Xbox console, divesting from independent development, focusing on TV and sporting events rather than games, a $499.99 console, mandatory online attendance, inability to play used software, the infinite power of the cloud™, this, the list goes on. I think at this point, it's fair to say that the changes were not for the better of the Xbox brand, and as a result, the brand has suffered.

If I were to narrow it down to 5 things that someone can point at and say "That's probably why Xbox is in its current position", it would be the following: Bad leadership, Kinect, poor brand management, short-term decisions, and bad customer strategies.
 

Somnia

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Sep 8, 2004
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I bet this new CoD bundle won't increase sales at all
:p
.

To be fair though it honestly won't till the $299.99 deal is over on the Uncharted and Star Wars Bundles lol

If they drop the CoD bundle to $299.99 though...
 

noobie

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Aug 16, 2008
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So,

Phase 1 - NDC for Black Friday movement
Phase 2 - SWBF for Star Wars movie hype movement
Phase 3 - CoD bundle for general Christmas/end of year movement
Why Sony didn't introduce all the bundles together instead of launching one after other. Isn't giving choices to customer considered better?

Secondly do Sony have any limit on number of games they can sell in bundles for third party games. I mean can Sony sell as many battlefront bundle as they can
 

Stone Ocean

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May 27, 2013
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Yup, looks like in the initial agreement they couldn't even talk about the other versions of the game before the Xbox release.

SE wanted to talk PS4/PC versions, after the lackluster reception/pre orders of ROTR, to try and at least build some anticipation for the other versions, hence renegotiation, and delaying the PS4 version was the cost. My guy said SE didn't mind this as the delay meant it avoided UC4's release.
Yeah, and now they get to release into the next holiday season in a very busy year lol

Out of the fire, into the frying pan
 

Bitch Pudding

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Oct 3, 2014
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So,

Phase 1 - NDC for Black Friday movement
Phase 2 - SWBF for Star Wars movie hype movement
Phase 3 - CoD bundle for general Christmas/end of year movement

Sony came more than prepared this time around.

Yeah, especially compared to MS' approach this time:

Phase 1 - Make ROTTR exclusive deal
Phase 2 - ?
Phase 3 - Profit
 

Fafalada

Fafracer forever
Jun 22, 2004
7,880
722
1,795
CosmicQueso said:
Decline in tie ratio due to a number of factors, one of them being far fewer choice.
Considering the # of releases is ~3x higher once you add DD, the factor could well be "too much choice" on the non-physical end.
Although tie-ratios are often tied to hw-sales velocity as well - PS2 started off "really" low there IIRC.
 

hawk2025

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Jan 20, 2013
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Yeah, especially compared to MS' approach this time:

Phase 1 - Make ROTTR exclusive deal
Phase 2 - Bundles. Everything on bundles. Randomize on prices and size of hard drives, because why not.
Phase 3 - Profit


There.

But PS4 numbers nonwithstanding, they did manage to keep their great 2014 November numbers going, so I don't think their strategy should be downplayed!
 

cakely

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Oct 3, 2013
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Why Sony didn't introduce all the bundles together instead of launching one after other. Isn't giving choices to customer considered better?

Secondly do Sony have any limit on number of games they can sell in bundles for third party games. I mean can Sony sell as many battlefront bundle as they can

Sony is clearly getting complacent and will loose January.
 

CosmicQueso

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Feb 16, 2010
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Considering the # of releases is ~3x higher once you add DD, the factor could well be "too much choice" on the non-physical end.

Packaged tie ratios down around -25%, Packaged release count down around the same amount.

Average sales per packaged title flat to slightly up.

If DD were truly cannibalistic to packaged, tie ratios would be declining faster than release count and average sales per title would more likely be down.

If anything, there's demand for Packaged software that is being under served, mostly due to risk management and cost inflation of AAA development.
 

gundamkyoukai

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Aug 30, 2009
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Packaged tie ratios down around -25%, Packaged release count down around the same amount.

Average sales per packaged title flat to slightly up.

If DD were truly cannibalistic to packaged, tie ratios would be declining faster than release count and average sales per title would more likely be down.

I won't say they cannibalistic packaged but they do fill the space that the low and mid tier once was .
You are going to see less package games because they going to be less AAA games.

EDIT don't think we can say there is more demand for more package software .
Not when the big AAA games taking so much more of the pie now .
 
Sep 4, 2015
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Why Sony didn't introduce all the bundles together instead of launching one after other. Isn't giving choices to customer considered better?

Secondly do Sony have any limit on number of games they can sell in bundles for third party games. I mean can Sony sell as many battlefront bundle as they can
Well, in general, sure but people just want PS4s. So, they can just buy the game they want to go with the bundle.

I'm not sure but I imagine they are given a ton of them considering the scale of the advertisement and what not.
 
Sony is clearly getting complacent and will loose January.

How. dare. you.

Anyhoo... this question isn't for me, since I'm on a self-induced Tomb Raider boycott* since their botched "exclusive" reveal, but...

Is anyone here worried that the terrible XB1 sales could endanger a PS4 release? Like, SE/CD realize the ship has sailed and just cut their losses?

Or for cakely... cut their looses?

Or is porting from XB1 to PS4 so inexpensive that they just may as well just do it for kicks and giggles anyhow?






*I wouldn't even grab Tomb Raider: Something Something Osiris when it was free on PS+ because I didn't want to inflate their numbers.
 

Primethius

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Jan 20, 2008
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How. dare. you.

Anyhoo... this question isn't for me, since I'm on a self-induced Tomb Raider boycott* since their botched "exclusive" reveal, but...

Is anyone here worried that the terrible XB1 sales could endanger a PS4 release? Like, SE/CD realize the ship has sailed and just cut their losses?

Or for cakely... cut their looses?

Or is porting from XB1 to PS4 so inexpensive that they just may as well just do it for kicks and giggles anyhow?






*I wouldn't even grab Tomb Raider: Something Something Osiris when it was free on PS+ because I didn't want to inflate their numbers.

Not releasing it would be akin to putting the series into the ground permanently. They can't do that, no matter the meager sales.
 

Mr. Giggles

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Dec 23, 2014
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Damn, that first post.

I hope SE makes the PS4 port earlier, if I have to wait a whole year for the PS4 version I will just end up getting it used instead, I mean SE made me wait a whole year so whats a few more months
 

bishoptl

Banstick Emeritus
Jun 6, 2004
29,794
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Yup, looks like in the initial agreement they couldn't even talk about the other versions of the game before the Xbox release.

SE wanted to talk PS4/PC versions, after the lackluster reception/pre orders of ROTR, to try and at least build some anticipation for the other versions, hence renegotiation, and delaying the PS4 version was the cost. My guy said SE didn't mind this as the delay meant it avoided UC4's release.

Check your PMs, please.
 

Fdkn

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Jul 20, 2011
2,872
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#happening

I hope it gets cleared because that renegotiation seems too stupid to be true
 

Mass Effect

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Apr 24, 2011
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Oh look, bish is here.

And we got numbers from cs too. cool

How. dare. you.

Anyhoo... this question isn't for me, since I'm on a self-induced Tomb Raider boycott* since their botched "exclusive" reveal, but...

Is anyone here worried that the terrible XB1 sales could endanger a PS4 release? Like, SE/CD realize the ship has sailed and just cut their losses?

Or for cakely... cut their looses?

Or is porting from XB1 to PS4 so inexpensive that they just may as well just do it for kicks and giggles anyhow?

They won't cancel the PS4 version.

Still though, the game is going to do terribly. A year-late port coming out after Uncharted (where most people on PS4 will probably get their fill of this type of game) that's probably coming in the jam-packed 2016 holiday season. Yeah, good luck S-E.
 
Jun 16, 2004
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#happening

I hope it gets cleared because that renegotiation seems to stupid to be true

The logic just doesn't add up. It's not like they've said anything else about either the PC or PS4 versions at this point, other than their release windows. Not whether it'll be a DE, if it'll have other new content or release at a discount. They'd have taken putting their game in a bad position release wise just so they could tell people how bad it now was.
 

Ray Down

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Jan 5, 2015
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Check your PMs, please.