Obliterator
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- Apr 21, 2015
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Sony. Dem Battlefront bundles. Pls
Please send more? Please send less? Please stop throwing them off cliffs in New Zealand? Please what?
Too many? It is overwhelming? Sony pls staph?Sony. Dem Battlefront bundles. Pls
I assume he's implying their still pushing a ton of consoles. The movie is still going strong.
Why would anyone use hourly charts when there is a good monthly chart available for December at: http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-12/videogames/
Silver lining I guess. Man though TR Rise is pretty far down list for a recent exclusive. Game really has been hexed with negative connotations. Thought it would be higher than that.Wow Xbox One versions of all the games on the first page outsold their PS4 counterparts.
Don't pull a Rex.Wow Xbox One versions of all the games on the first page outsold their PS4 counterparts.
/nod It seems PS4 actually has too many games.Wow Xbox One versions of all the games on the first page outsold their PS4 counterparts.
Time for renewal of that old meme./nod It seems PS4 actually has too many games.
You have loost your mind if you think you are right.No I was right the spelling is lose
Well, obviously if they are throwing them off cliffs in New Zealand, they are moving consoles.
I keep seeing references to New Zealand. Where is this from?
There was this guy at start of Gen saying Xbones flying off the shelves in NZ and PS4s sitting on backrooms or something like that. I don't think he's with us anymore.I keep seeing references to New Zealand. Where is this from?
Like I said, I never took Prob & Stat, so I looked up what covariance meant, and I'm guessing you're saying that we need to find the mean for the release counts, and the mean for the tie ratios, and then see how much those two means deviate from each other? How do we do that, using the numbers we have? Like, can you walk me through it? <3
Wow Xbox One versions of all the games on the first page outsold their PS4 counterparts.
So he's taking a pair of numbers as a data point (releaseCount_x, swSales_x), and plots all of them out onto a graph. He then tries to find the line that minimizes the distance between all data points and the line (the so called line of best fit) using some math.
So for example, if the data points formed a circle on the graph, you could find an infinite number of lines that could equally fit the data, so the data set would have zero linear correlation.
What Queso is finding is that the best fit line is almost exactly fitting the data he has. So released software count is almost exactly linearly related total software sales.
Now this doesn't mean that this is a causal relationship (you can't just throw software out willy nilly and expect the linear trend to continue), but it does perhaps point to the 8th gen being underserved.
The PS4 leads with Star Wars at #1 on the charts and Uncharted at #31. Star Wars is a new hot game and would be a great starter game for a new console owner. Uncharted is a remaster but because many 360 owners are jumping ship to the PS4 there is a good chance that the 3 games are new to them. Once again it'd make a good starter for a new console owner.
On the other side, the Xbox bundles are anchored by Gears of War. Combine that with the fact that most XB1 owners are simply upgrading within the Xbox family, the bundled Gears game is more likely an upgrade to a game they have already played. Therefore they'd want a to buy a new game to play on their next gen console.
Sounds very likely to me. The PS4 just had an amazing November, almost double of last November in the US, and December looks to be great for the PS4 as well. 37 million shipped should be easily within reach by the end of 2015.So guys last year Sony shipped 6.4 ML PS4 in third quarter ?
How about this year? I think 8 ML , maybe even more...
What do you think ?
With the new official price on the brazillian manufactured PS4 and the rise of the exchange rate is not cheaper anymore.
You can now buy a ps4 for roughly $399/449 in trusted online stores in brazil now.
Not a very specific request but I'll oblige:Can someone just draw a graph with some arrows? I would but I'm on mobile.
So guys last year Sony shipped 6.4 ML PS4 in third quarter
How about this year? I think 8 ML , maybe even more...
What do you think ?
Sorry, but I'm still not sure how this is even laid out. (I'm not very good at visualizing.) So do we plot the releases and the sales on the same y axis, then basically look to see if our lines ever get closer together, or drift further apart?So he's taking a pair of numbers as a data point (releaseCount_x, swSales_x), and plots all of them out onto a graph. He then tries to find the line that minimizes the distance between all data points and the line (the so called line of best fit) using some math.
They could have won some months but sell less in holidays. In the end they want to sell the biggest amount of consoles as possible every year, win NPD in a slow month isn't exactly what drives a company.
Somehow Sony is managing to sell consoles all year so it is definitely possible.
Because he's talking about sales after PS4 price go back to $349.
So he's taking a pair of numbers as a data point (releaseCount_x, swSales_x), and plots all of them out onto a graph. He then tries to find the line that minimizes the distance between all data points and the line (the so called line of best fit) using some math.
What Queso is finding is that the best fit line is almost exactly fitting the data he has. So released software count is almost exactly linearly related total software sales.
The lines converge and diverge sorta randomly?
An increase in releases certainly doesn't seem to have create a linear increase in sales.
Do these numbers represent a fairly linear correlation, in the opinion of statisticians?
Are we even looking at the right numbers? Do we need to use actual software sales instead of tie ratios? Seems like the tie ratios would actually be better, wouldn't they?
Not a very specific request but I'll oblige:
Whoa, does anyone know why Ryng_Tolu got banned?
Whoa, does anyone know why Ryng_Tolu got banned?
If I have the details correctly, it's a 1 week ban for saying "cool story bro."
A "Cool story bro" post.
He'll be back in a week.
Yeah. I'll update once NPD has released the total 2015 spend number, but this is a simple version of the 2009-2014 chart, including the linear trend with a 96% coefficient of determination.
All r-squared really does is explain how much of a change in X can be explained through changes in Y. In this case, the data suggest that 96% of the change in Physical SW Spend can be explained by changes in Physical Title Count.
Ah thats good, I was worried they got perma'd and was bummed out. Never like to see a fellow Sales Gaffer leave us
Don't they have a weekly chart if we really wanted to look at that, though?
Please send more? Please send less? Please stop throwing them off cliffs in New Zealand? Please what?
Yeah. I'll update once NPD has released the total 2015 spend number, but this is a simple version of the 2009-2014 chart, including the linear trend with a 96% coefficient of determination.
All r-squared really does is explain how much of a change in X can be explained through changes in Y. In this case, the data suggest that 96% of the change in Physical SW Spend can be explained by changes in Physical Title Count.
Lines? One line. And no, it's not random. If it was random the data points would look more like buckshot and the r-squared value would approach .00
The data suggest that across the 2009-2014 time period that this was certainly possible, if not likely.
The above graph is a linear trend. So, yes.
In order to use tie ratios appropriately for this math, you would need to measure only that portion of the installed base that was active. However, the active installed base for any platform over any time period is impossible to know. For example, in 2015, a vast majority of software sales are being done on PS4 and Xbox One, yet a majority of the installed base is still PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii. Looking at tie ratios, one would have to include the entire PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii installed base since the active portion of that installed base is unknown. I trust you see why this would be problematic. So no, tie ratios are not the right metric to use. Software consumer spend is as it already takes into account active portions of the installed base, price, etc. and does represent, ultimately, demand.
Just for the sake of discussion, wouldn't the whole "Correlation does not imply causation" nugget of wisdom apply.
Couldn't you also view the data as showing that as the amount of money spent on software declined, publishers made fewer software titles.
When you do update the data could you tell us the p-value?
No. Because sales are the result of a title being published, not the other way around.
You just spoiled NPD 2016.
Thanks, donny.
You just spoiled NPD 2016.
Thanks, donny.
Discussion.
The data is just data, the hypothesis is just a hypothesis, none of this nonsense really matters.
There are less AAA games being made because last gen pub lost so much money making everything AAA then seeing what sticks .
This gen they figure it's better to make to less games but put more behind them .