NPD Sales Results for November 2015 [Up3: Combined Hardware For PS4 + XB1 + Wii U]

Dec 27, 2006
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sörine;190567805 said:
Even an argument can be made for MS. I mean they're publishing a Platinum bomba after all. :p


Well, no. In fact I said the opposite, they have the best 1st party indie curation bar none.

I think some people are getting too hung up the "risky" and overlooking the "Japanese" in my comments. This is really about regional localization, not how risk taking their entire portfolio is. That's what my original point was over, these days things like Japanese rhythm games, offbeat sims and jrpgs aren't so much what we see from Sony but from Nintendo. In the 1990s it was sort of the opposite of that, it's just a funny coincidence.
Bruh! Tales of R.

Besides what rhythm games does Sony have to localise when Sega and Atlus have us covered with Hatsune Miku and P4 Dancing all night.
 
Bruh! Tales of R.

Besides what rhythm games does Sony have to localise when Sega and Atlus have us covered with Hatsune Miku and P4 Dancing all night.
Well, none in particular, but the mention of it all does prove to me that Sony should make another Parappa and/or UmJammer. They are literally begging for a sequel, as am I.

And countless others.
 
Nov 10, 2010
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sörine;190567805 said:
Even an argument can be made for MS. I mean they're publishing a Platinum bomba after all. :p


Well, no. In fact I said the opposite, they have the best 1st party indie curation bar none.

I think some people are getting too hung up the "risky" and overlooking the "Japanese" in my comments. This is really about regional localization, not how risk taking their entire portfolio is. That's what my original point was over, these days things like Japanese rhythm games, offbeat sims and jrpgs aren't so much what we see from Sony but from Nintendo. In the 1990s it was sort of the opposite of that, it's just a funny coincidence.
What exactly are you trying to argue
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Jul 6, 2005
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sörine;190566023 said:
I already listed several for you besides Bleach, and they skipped more Bleach games than just the PS3 title NISA grabbed. Maybe go deeper than glancing at a US wikipedia page next time.

I didn't glaze over your argument either, I addressed it and explained why it was sort of missing the point. Even if Sony did localize everything they release in Japan (which no company does btw) it'd still result in a dramatic descrease in Japanese localizations versus previous years.

I mean, I feel it's sort of crazy to really try and refute this obvious trend when Sony released 2 Japanese games in west this year. Yes two.


You really need an explanation why a ridiculed kusoge shooter (that might've shipped hundreds of units in America) and a comicbooky handheld rts/cover shooter hybrid starring Abe Lincoln might be seen as risky? And then imply my only criteria was because they already tanked, after I went ahead a identified efforts like Bravely Default, Tomodachi Life or Splatoon as being in the same sort of category? And then you accuse me of artificially constructing the argument?

I mean, I guess we could compare DQ remakes to Yakuza. They seem to sell in the same ballpark in the west, although only one's getting full retail releases and 1st party publishing here. So what's the bigger risk, publishing a game at retail or not actually publishing it at all?
So I learned that I would be better served not arguing what is and is not risky with you, but yes, I'm accusing you of constructing a highly artificial argument. Again, "You don't see Sony taking risks on things like Codename STEAM, DQ remakes, Devil's Third, LBX, etc." is what you said. I think it has been suitably meted out that you can in fact see that. I'm satisfied. I think this comment has been put to you now multiple times.

By the way, DQ is multiple times bigger than Yakuza. I am pretty sure you know that...unless you want to just go fully ridiculous and compare Yakuza to DQH.
 
Sep 1, 2013
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What exactly are you trying to argue
Sony doesn't localize much from Japan, but they used to and it's too bad they don't anymore. That's mostly it and it's a little confounding to me how people are trying to argue against it, by any means necessary in some cases it feels like.

It wasn't even really an argument, just an observation. I guess there was already blood in the water from the other "risk taking" line of discourse concerning Sony so I guess I might've stepped in it.
 
Dec 5, 2008
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I don't know how anyone could be upset about the current state of localization quantity right now. I don't see any huge or even smaller omissions by any of the three companies. If anything Sony's success in English speaking Asian markets paired with no region locks has assured a almost complete coverage of very niche titles.
 
Aug 4, 2012
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sörine;190570499 said:
Sony doesn't localize much from Japan, but they used to and it's too bad they don't anymore. That's mostly it and it's a little confounding to me how people are trying to argue against it, by any means necessary in some cases it feels like.

It wasn't even really an argument, just an observation. I guess there was already blood in the water from the other "risk taking" line of discourse concerning Sony so I guess I might've stepped in it.
are there any games nowadays that are not being localized that sony should step in and bring over?

i think it is telling that publishers are willing to take the risk and bring over ps4 versions of japanese games because they see potential. on the other hand they don't bother with nintendo games in general and nintendo has to pick up the slack and bring over the games themselves. Sony "might" have used its third party team to localize more games and bring them over like yakuza. maybe with potential pc release option publishers are willing to foot the bill themselves nowadays.just because nintendo localized games like xenoblade or devils' third or bravely default doesn't mean they are the only ones taking risks. nintendo most likely took these risks because they have no choice but to fill the calendar with these games to fill the gap between release of their first party games.
 
Nov 18, 2013
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Damn. It seems like I completely misjudged both my taste and Sony's output for 4 generations now.
It never came to my mind that the games I enjoyed so much for their quirkiness and freshness were actually low-risc, cold-blooded mainstream cash-ins like vib ribbon, Katamari, mr. Mosquito, journey, rain, sound shapes or whatnot.
Thanks for the warning. I will see clearer now behind the calculated boredom like Tomorrow Children, hohokum or abzu.
 
Sep 1, 2013
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So I learned that I would be better served not arguing what is and is not risky with you, but yes, I'm accusing you of constructing a highly artificial argument. Again, "You don't see Sony taking risks on things like Codename STEAM, DQ remakes, Devil's Third, LBX, etc." is what you said. I think it has been suitably meted out that you can in fact see that. I'm satisfied. I think this comment has been put to you now multiple times.

By the way, DQ is multiple times bigger than Yakuza. I am pretty sure you know that...unless you want to just go fully ridiculous and compare Yakuza to DQH.
You'd be better served not putting words in my mouth. I expounded on what sorts of games I was talking about, and that included both bombas and success stories. Wonderful 101, Tomodachi Life, Kersploosh, NES Remix, Bayonetta 2, there are tons of examples here with different levels of success, different degrees of risk, different levels of investment, different means of release and so on. The most notable aspect is really the 'tons' though, we're not limited to just a couple examples here. You accuse me of constructing an artifical argument but then you fixate on two games and ignore everything else I'm saying?

And no one mentioned DQH, why would they in an argument about 1st party investment? What we do have is Sony's 3PP somehow being involved in bringing more Yakuza games and Nintendo publishing Dragon Quest remakes. Which hey, don't sell all that far apart from each other. I'm not seeing the big problem here, these aren't comparable?
 
Oct 18, 2012
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Sony is playing a much bigger game than Nintendo nowadays. They don't need to bring third party games to the western markets anymore since japanese publishers/developers are already bring (almost) them all. Sony doesn't need to take risks anymore but they still do. Yakuza 5 and Zero are coming because of their effort.

All first party games are localized. There is no if, it's when. Really few ips not coming to western markets but we had good surprises along this year. I think more will come on 2016.

Maybe nintendo is like Sony more than a decade ago, well they need to or else their lineup would be even worse. I wonder when (and if) Nintendo will ever reach what Sony is today.
 
Jun 8, 2014
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Damn. It seems like I completely misjudged both my taste and Sony's output for 4 generations now.
It never came to my mind that the games I enjoyed so much for their quirkiness and freshness were actually low-risc, cold-blooded mainstream cash-ins like vib ribbon, Katamari, mr. Mosquito, journey, rain, sound shapes or whatnot.
Thanks for the warning. I will see clearer now behind the calculated boredom like Tomorrow Children, hohokum or abzu.
The hilarious thing is that by publishing ONE game (Scalebound), MS is a bigger risk taker than Sony...

and anyone who tries to argue otheriwse with Sorine is obviously part of SonyGAF as he's implying.
 
Jan 20, 2013
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sörine;190570499 said:
Sony doesn't localize much from Japan, but they used to and it's too bad they don't anymore. That's mostly it and it's a little confounding to me how people are trying to argue against it, by any means necessary in some cases it feels like.

It wasn't even really an argument, just an observation. I guess there was already blood in the water from the other "risk taking" line of discourse concerning Sony so I guess I might've stepped in it.
Your logic has been haphazard at best, and completely disjointed at its worse. I'm not surprised that you are confounded by people's reactions -- but you should be wondering why people are reacting that way.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Jul 6, 2005
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sörine;190572503 said:
You'd be better served not putting words in my mouth. I expounded on what sorts of games I was talking about, and that included both bombas and success stories. Wonderful 101, Tomodachi Life, Kersploosh, NES Remix, Bayonetta 2, there are tons of examples here with different levels of success, different degrees of risk, different levels of investment, different means of release and so on. The most notable aspect is really the 'tons' though, we're not limited to just a couple examples here. You accuse me of constructing an artifical argument but then you fixate on two games and ignore everything else I'm saying?
I've not done that. I asked how two games were risks and then dropped it when I realized you were absolutely not going to yield an inch on what constitutes risk.

You still are trying to squirrel around having to justify your original comment, with which you think you "stepped" into a sensitive discussion. I think you should go back and reread what I wrote. You said that DQ and Yakuza are about the same size. I said I don't think this is really the case and I know you know this is not the case unless you are going to compare Yakuza to Dragon Quest Heroes.

Please follow the discussion.

Again-- please demonstrate how we don't see Sony taking risks localizing Japanese games on their platform. Please identify which games they should be localizing and which ones they passed on, demonstrating a low risk tolerance. Someone else went and found the last game of their own they passed on was in 2011. If this is the basis of your argument-- excuse me, your "observation"-- you shouldn't be so surprised that people rejected your observation out of hand.
 
Sep 1, 2013
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Your logic has been haphazard at best, and completely disjointed at its worse. I'm not surprised that you are confounded by people's reactions -- but you should be wondering why people are reacting that way.
What's haphazard or disjointed about that statement? It feels like people are being sidetracked by riskwarz and nitpicking any tiny point to death when I thought I put forward a pretty general sentiment that's objectively rooted in the numbers.
 
Jun 7, 2013
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sörine;190575215 said:
What's haphazard or disjointed about that statement? It feels like people are being sidetracked by riskwarz and nitpicking any tiny point to death when I thought I put forward a pretty general sentiment that's objectively rooted in the numbers.
How so?
 
Sep 1, 2013
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I've not done that. I asked how two games were risks and then dropped it when I realized you were absolutely not going to yield an inch on what constitutes risk.

You still are trying to squirrel around having to justify your original comment, with which you think you "stepped" into a sensitive discussion. I think you should go back and reread what I wrote. You said that DQ and Yakuza are about the same size. I said I don't think this is really the case and I know you know this is not the case unless you are going to compare Yakuza to Dragon Quest Heroes.

Please follow the discussion.

Again-- please demonstrate how we don't see Sony taking risks localizing Japanese games on their platform. Please identify which games they should be localizing and which ones they passed on, demonstrating a low risk tolerance. Someone else went and found the last game of their own they passed on was in 2011. If this is the basis of your argument-- excuse me, your "observation"-- you shouldn't be so surprised that people rejected your observation out of hand.
Well, I explained why I thought both were risky. To go further Devil's Third is basically junk and the prelaunch response was terrible at every step. Codename STEAM is in a niche genre, one that's near nonexistent on handhelds, and pushed a devisive artstyle and setting which also led to pretty mixed prelaunch response. And STEAM at least got a heavy promotional push, although Nintendo cut their loses on DT and just dumped it on the market. You talk about giving an inch or being forced to drop the discussion but it doesn't seem to me like you've really ever been sincerely interested in discussing these two games at all.

And excuse me but you're the one who brought up the DQ vs Yakuza comparison. And then called it ridiculous. I can't keep up.

Their own last game SCE passed on was Miku Hockey 2.0 last year. Not that it's something they really should've bothered with, but the 2011 Bleach PS3 game wasn't the last and I already pointed that out to that poster. Whose original statement was none since Demon's Souls, which I also had to correct. I had to point out Bleach to him in the first place.

As far as things they should've picked up in recent years, I think WKC2 would've been an obvious one although it was awhile ago. I think there might've been a good opportunity with the Boku no Natsayumi games too, even if digital only. I'd like to see their indie curation program look at Japanese games too beyond just Q-Games (this goes for MS and Nintendo too really!). I'd have liked to see them picking up 3rd party games again, especially the glut of late PSP games that got skipped like VC3EX, MH3P, LBX or Type-0 which could've doubled pushing Vita at key points. Actually with the Yakuza example it'd be great if SCEA/SCEE really invested in the brand and published it at retail with heavier promotion. It's not only an issue of what is or isn't coming, but what could be pushed harder, what Sony could extend a helping hand to.

A big part of the issue is investment though. Japan Studio's pool of partners just seems to have shrunk over the years as has their output. I guess that makes some sense as budgets rise, and SCE has pivoted more towards western investment, but it really does seem like they've left Japan behind. It's a chicken and egg scenario.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Jul 6, 2005
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sörine;190578146 said:
Well, I explained why I thought both were risky. To go further Devil's Third is basically junk and the prelaunch response was terrible at every step. Codename STEAM is in a niche genre, one that's near nonexistent on handhelds, and pushed a devisive artstyle and setting which also led to pretty mixed prelaunch response. And STEAM at least got a heavy promotional push, although Nintendo cut their loses on DT and just dumped it on the market. You talk about giving an inch or being forced to drop the discussion but it doesn't seem to me like you've really ever been sincerely interested in discussing these two games at all.
I read your response and decided that I was not interested in discussing them with you. That is correct and why I dropped it. This is a good behavior! It's more for my sanity than yours.

And excuse me but you're the one who brought up the DQ vs Yakuza comparison. And then called it ridiculous. I can't keep up.
Again, this was because you said that DQ and Yakuza are in the same ballpark "in the west." This is a pretty big ballpark, which I know you know. I think the original line of argument was meant to demonstrate that Sony and Nintendo are taking similar levels of risk by localizing Yakuza and Dragon Quest games. Probably true, though like I said, generous ballpark unless you were comparing a mainline Yakuza to the recent Dragon Quest spinoff. This is exceedingly clear at this point.

Their own last game SCE passed on was Miku Hockey 2.0 last year. Not that it's something they really should've bothered with, but the 2011 Bleach PS3 game wasn't the last and I already pointed that out to that poster. Whose original statement was none since Demon's Souls, which I also had to correct. I had to point out Bleach to him in the first place.
I didn't start with Demon's Souls as I know it is not the last game they passed on. Miku Hockey is a $10 AR game, but OK, yes, they passed on that. I agree that you listed a bunch of games, but they are not recent (last Summer Vacation was 2009, last Badman was I think 2010, WKC2 was 2011 and PSP was older than that [edit-- it's the same year, I think WKC2 was 2010], Oreshika PSP...I mean come on). These are old, so that is why people reacted as they did to your comment. I didn't go back to Nintendo's localization record over the last 10 years (where stump did a great thread a few years back) because the market is changing dramatically and I don't think things nearing 5 years old are as relevant.

As far as things they should've picked up in recent years, I think WKC2 would've been an obvious one although it was awhile ago. I think there might've been a good opportunity with the Boku no Natsayumi games too, even if digital only. I'd like to see their indie curation program look at Japanese games too beyond just Q-Games (this goes for MS and Nintendo too really!). I'd have liked to see them picking up 3rd party games again, especially the glut of late PSP games that got skipped like VC3EX, MH3P, LBX or Type-0 which could've doubled pushing Vita at key points. Actually with the Yakuza example it'd be great if SCEA/SCEE really invested in the brand and published it at retail with heavier promotion. It's not only an issue of what is or isn't coming, but what could be pushed harder, what Sony could extend a helping hand to.

A big part of the issue is investment though. Japan Studio's pool of partners just seems to have shrunk over the years as has their output. I guess that makes some sense as budgets rise, and SCE has pivoted more towards western investment, but it really does seem like they've left Japan behind. It's a chicken and egg scenario.
I agree. Their output is very small, and even the market of potential "West compatible" games coming out on their platforms from Japanese developers is small. It sucks that Vita has become what it has become in Japan, but can't win 'em all. They've given up on handhelds outside (and inside) of Japan, and their content curation strategy reflects that. That's a real shame. I don't think that's a reflection of risk tolerance, though, as much as it is that they've exited the marketplace (and did so in 2012). Unfortunate, but whatever, it happened.
 
Jul 19, 2015
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I just dont see how anyone can say sony doesn't take risks at all. The last guardian,tearway(bombs than they make a ps4 version and still bombs) gravity rush(bombs in west, than remasters said bomb and greenlits sequel) dreams? Knack as a launch title..lol(knack is goat)

Dives all in for a vr headset, even making a studio soley for it.

Shit thats not even half of it..
 
Feb 18, 2014
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I just dont see how anyone can say sony doesn't take risks at all. The last guardian,tearway(bombs than they make a ps4 version and still bombs) gravity rush(bombs in west, than remasters said bomb and greenlits sequel) dreams? Knack as a launch title..lol(knack is goat)

Dives all in for a vr headset, even making a studio soley for it.

Shit thats not even half of it..
A lot could be said about Tearaway bombing. The marketing budget allocated to said games has to be dismal. I can't remember the last time Sony treated a platformer with respect. Knack? Due the fact that it was a KEY launch title for a specific audience?...

But outside an anomaly, Sony doesn't push platformers nearly as good as they potentially can. I always contrast with Nintendo, who do a better job regularly on this front. You give Sony props for risk taking and at the same time you recognize it's a half assed effort when you add marketing the mix. Hec, even if the allocated budgets are low, people can be ingenious with marketing. I just really assume a lot, but I do think I've a pretty good idea of what goes on. A lot bureaucratic, departmentalized, standardized and prioritized BS.
 
Sep 1, 2013
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Oh no, we're into multiquote! ;__;

Again, this was because you said that DQ and Yakuza are in the same ballpark "in the west." This is a pretty big ballpark, which I know you know. I think the original line of argument was meant to demonstrate that Sony and Nintendo are taking similar levels of risk by localizing Yakuza and Dragon Quest games. Probably true, though like I said, generous ballpark unless you were comparing a mainline Yakuza to the recent Dragon Quest spinoff. This is exceedingly clear at this point.
lol, no I didn't! I said the DQ REMAKES were comparable sales wise. And I only did that in direct response to your comments on them, I never even brought up Yakuza previously or any comparison between those two brands. I also contrasted the degree of risk both Nintendo and Sony were taking here, with digital releases one isn't selfpublishing versus retail releases published directly by the other. Even if the specific titles are similar scale in terms of sales/risk one is going a lot further here with it in this match up.

I didn't start with Demon's Souls as I know it is not the last game they passed on. Miku Hockey is a $10 AR game, but OK, yes, they passed on that. I agree that you listed a bunch of games, but they are not recent (last Summer Vacation was 2009, last Badman was I think 2010, WKC2 was 2011 and PSP was older than that [edit-- it's the same year, I think WKC2 was 2010], Oreshika PSP...I mean come on). These are old, so that is why people reacted as they did to your comment. I didn't go back to Nintendo's localization record over the last 10 years (where stump did a great thread a few years back) because the market is changing dramatically and I don't think things nearing 5 years old are as relevant.
Oh sure, these games are old. This isn't a recent phenomenon for Sony either though and I pointed to PS3/Vita being the actual lowpoint in terms of stuff they skipped (refuting the weird idea someone else put up that desperation is what yields localization). But the lowpoint of their total output is really now. You can't simply look at what they skipped, you have to look at and compare what they did bring to the table and now they're bringing less than ever.

And believe me, I could fill a phonebook with all the games Nintendo should've localized over the years, lol. Their historical record is horrible here (particularly the heartbreaking late SNES era) but that also makes their recent record all the more notable by comparison. These days Nintendo seems to deliver on nearly everything people might be interested in, some like Fatal Frame, LBX or DQ7/8 coming as legitimate surprises. And to be honest even now I could think of more I'd personally like (hey Culdcept).

I agree. Their output is very small, and even the market of potential "West compatible" games coming out on their platforms from Japanese developers is small. It sucks that Vita has become what it has become in Japan, but can't win 'em all. They've given up on handhelds outside (and inside) of Japan, and their content curation strategy reflects that. That's a real shame. I don't think that's a reflection of risk tolerance, though, as much as it is that they've exited the marketplace (and did so in 2012). Unfortunate, but whatever, it happened.
I think I can agree here, risk tolerance isn't the core issue but more a regional decline/disinterest and reallocation of resources. I also think the rise of indie games has helped fill the hole for the more 'quirky' content we used to see out of Japan (at least it has in my own experience).

And really this probably isn't even the 'wrong' move, like I said earlier Nintendo doubling down on Japanese investment is probably more to their peril than Sony's exit is. As a fan of Japanese games though it's makes me a little sad, and I wish Sony and MS would both invest more again. I understand why they don't though, and why an old guard publisher like Nintendo does.
 
Feb 18, 2014
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The argument is pointless. Whether i have more points is irrelevant. I know when to drop something personally. It went from no risks, to Japanese games risks, to marketing. Its the "no games argument" all over again
I am just jumping in to add to the discussion. I am not moving any goal posts. I'm just voicing an observation of mine that ties to the games cited and market performance. That's all.

Perhaps you're on edge, I can understand that.
 
Feb 18, 2014
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Why do some of you do that?? Thats so childish carry on.
Well if your takeaway from my posts is to literally "give up", and you describe it as "moving goalposts" when in fact I don't disagree with the overall argument being presented then my impression is that you were hasty in dismissal. Only reason to be hasty is if you're on edge.

There is a part about taking risks (which is undoubtedly proven to be true), and a part about doing the best it can be made within reason to have the games succeed. It's my impression that the latter part is not up to snuff. Or in gaming limbo, "Sony sent x game out to die" aka "Didn't even knew this game was releasing x date" aka "Where is the marketing for this game Sony?" aka "Such a shame x gem bombed" - usually a casual platformer w/ great potential. Now there are all sort of arguments to be had about this but I have no doubt in my mind some of those titles in Nintendo's hand = gold.

Looking at the two as if they were in some sort of conflict (one negating the other) is TO ME a case of being on edge.
 
May 22, 2010
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Why do some of you do that?? Thats so childish carry on.
Some people can only argue in passive aggressive triplicate.

The entire discussion is bizarre. To go from "Sony is a corporate machine that doesn't take risks" to "y no publish MHP3 and release FF Type 0 for Vita" as if Sony could unilaterally make those decisions anyway...

After Dreams, Gravity Rush 2, along with basically the entire roster of digital games these past two gens, I'd love to see what these people consider a risk.
 
Jul 19, 2015
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Philadelphia,pa
Some people can only argue in passive aggressive triplicate.

The entire discussion is bizarre. To go from "Sony is a corporate machine that doesn't take risks" to "y no publish MHP3 and release FF Type 0 for Vita" as if Sony could unilaterally make those decisions anyway...

After Dreams, Gravity Rush 2, along with basically the entire roster of digital games these past two gens, I'd love to see what these people consider a risk.
I see because the discussion wasn't even that heated lol saying i give up just mean i was done.

But i agree, risks is something i feel sony does really well.
 
Mar 25, 2012
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This is very true. It has always been about power with consoles. "Blast Processing vs. on screen colors", 8-bit vs. 16-bit, etc.

Now all of a sudden the differences do not matter (unless PC is dragged in of course still). SMH.

Gamers gonna game.
Been going on before the snes. First console war I remember was, Odyssey 2000 vs Atari VCS.
Then VCS vs Intellivision vs Coleco vision etc etc.....
 
Sep 1, 2013
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"y no publish MHP3 and release FF Type 0 for Vita" as if Sony could unilaterally make those decisions anyway...
Well, those were two of four random examples I threw out. Maybe they could've happened, maybe they couldn't, but probably Sony didn't bother seriously trying. And in MH3P's case they actually stood in the way of the PS3 version coming over.

The real issue more though was "why did Sony only release two Japanese made games this year"? On the bright side they're already improving next year (from 2 to 6). So is Microsoft actually (from 0 to 1).
 
May 22, 2010
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sörine;190583636 said:
The real issue more though was "why did Sony only release two Japanese made games this year"? On the bright side they're already improving next year (from 2 to 6). So is Microsoft actually (from 0 to 1).
That's a legitimate problem with Sony's recent output, but the point is that it was a complete digression away from your point about risk-taking.

Unless you're implying that Western-developed games are somehow inherently risk-averse products of soulless corporate complacency.

Hence Blackleg-sanji1's evocation of moving the goalposts.
 
Jul 15, 2013
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Going back to my comment last night, I just don't see enough time for most of Sony WWS to even pump out 2 AAA games this gen, assuming it's going to only last 5 years (2013-2018).

Dev cycles are too long it would seem, as the powerful hardware is allowing them to be far more ambitious than previously, albeit at the expense of timely releases.

The logical assumption would be that this gen will last longer than 5 years.

No new consoles launched until 2020, is my prediction.

Though I can see MS launching a new one much earlier, which will likely force Sony to move in tandem.
The whole concept of a console generation will change. Previously a change in generations was a hard breakpoint. When a new generation came along development pipelines got scrapped. Backwards compatibility, if offered at all, was seen as a side ability totally separate from offering the 'greatness' of the new generation. That's no longer going to be the case.

The next generation is going to be seen as an extension of the current gen. There is going to be full compatibility between the two. No dev pipelines will need to get changed. The new generation will just offer up more options for games. It might offer better AA and graphics effects, or support 4k output. It'll give the1080p 60 FPS to the people who demand it while the PS4 will be perfectly fine at 1080p 30 FPS.

I definitely see Microsoft offering up a new console or PC/console hybrid on or before holiday 2017. The original Xbox only had a 4 year lifespan after all. Sony will want to wait a bit longer, especially with the PSVR coming out next year, but MS will force their hand. I see Sony offering up a new gen sometime on or before holiday 2018. The thing to remember is that the PS4 and XB1 will continue to be made and promoted. They will remain first class citizens, just at a lower cost. It'll be like the Elite and Standard versions of consoles. Both existing at the same time expect they will have a bit more the hard drive to separate them.
 
Sep 1, 2013
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That's a legitimate problem with Sony's recent output, but the point is that it was a complete digression away from your point about risk-taking.

Unless you're implying that Western-developed games are somehow inherently risk-averse products of soulless corporate complacency.

Hence Blackleg-sanji1's evocation of moving the goalposts.
I'm not implying that all. In fact I pretty much said the opposite regarding Sony and their industry leading indie portfolio.

Also, my original point was about Japanese localizations. I made the mistake of using "taking risks" in a follow up response and then y'all came out of the woodwork over it.