NPD Sales Results for November 2015 [Up3: Combined Hardware For PS4 + XB1 + Wii U]

Mar 19, 2013
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I think gap increased over a million after November and after the release of star wars bundle.

If Microsoft had got that marketing deal than increasing the gap to over million would have remained only a dream for Sony
and would have become reality for Microsoft
The gap is over 1m and it will increase in December (over 1.2m maybe?)... it is more about the $50 price cut than bundle in my view because the best seller bundle is a remake (Uncharted Collection).

So no... even MS get all the marketing deals PS4 will sell more because it is the hot product to buy.

Sony is not dreaming... they are living the real life.

I've seen some of his posts... is Noobie for real or is he a troll?
He is a bot
jk
 
Aug 30, 2009
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The hardware development cycle is such that as soon as one console (phase) is finished, you generally start for the next. The PS5 has probably been in development for the past 2+ years now, if not before for some aspects.

Now when I say development, the final specs probably aren't set in stones quite yet, but the choice of GPU/ CPU manufacturer is probably done, and negociations ongoing about pricing, volumes and features, alongside having engineers like Mark Cerny talking to devs about their wish lists and trying to think 5 years ahead.

The very last things to be developped across the next 3 years will be Ram amounts, CPU/ GPU.clocking, types of network adapters/ physical disc support (if any, but I'd be surprised), and launch software features, as well as the SDK to be sent to devs as soon as the GPU/CPU chipset and overall MB will be set. Form factor also comes pretty far into dev afaik.
You be surprise if the next gen system support disc ?
 
Oct 13, 2014
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You be surprise if the next gen system support disc ?
On one hand, I can't see them going without drive (at the very least Sony and Ninty, as I sort of expect the next Xbox to be a branded PC with a skinned Win10 and an MS store very akin to a sort of Steam light if you will), on the other the temptation will also be there (to bypass disc drive and physical releases cost, while digital releases remain with high prices).

But as I just hinted at, no, I wouldn't be really surprised, aside from MS I guess. What I meant by "Id be surprised" is it would surprise me if there weren't drives, if only even one last time.
 
Oct 13, 2014
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Channels must be stuffed with GeoW bundles... In spite of the price having officially returned to $349 yesterday, Amazon still shows dozens of resellers selling at $299 or even slightly under. In fact, Amazon's own store only shows up at page 17 in the list of resellers hehe.

Now that the crazyness is kinda behind us, I hope that Abdiel, Corn and other retail insiders can tell us how the Xmas week went for them :)
 
Dec 5, 2008
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Pretty crazy that Destiny was unveiled at the PS4 announcement event and been on every Sony presser ever since.

It has worked very well for Sony. Destiny 2 is going to sell absolutely gangbusters, and ps4 will see a massive boost, even moreso than the original did.

Over a year later, and it is still in the top 10 games played on twitch consistently.

In my opinion, Ms fucked up massively. They should have let bungie do whatever they want.
 
Sep 10, 2006
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It has worked very well for Sony. Destiny 2 is going to sell absolutely gangbusters, and ps4 will see a massive boost, even moreso than the original did.

Over a year later, and it is still in the top 10 games played on twitch consistently.

In my opinion, Ms fucked up massively. They should have let bungie do whatever they want.
I'm always surprised at the viewers number whenever there's an official Bungie stream.
 
Oct 18, 2012
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It has worked very well for Sony. Destiny 2 is going to sell absolutely gangbusters, and ps4 will see a massive boost, even moreso than the original did.

Over a year later, and it is still in the top 10 games played on twitch consistently.

In my opinion, Ms fucked up massively. They should have let bungie do whatever they want.
It's not just Bungie. It's the third gen for Microsoft and it seems they learned nothing. Their first party are still lacking. They continue to depend heavily on other developers to make their games. They also milk too much some ips like Forza when PGR they already killed.

They needed to be a power house by now with their first party, but they just don't.
 
It's not just Bungie. It's the third gen for Microsoft and it seems they learned nothing. Their first party are still lacking. They continue to depend heavily on other developers to make their games. They also milk too much some ips like Forza when PGR they already killed.

They needed to be a power house by now with their first party, but they just don't.
I bet you didn't know that the chatter among a lot of gamers was that Microsoft had better first party offerings going into the PS3/360 generation. Basically, the feeling was that the biggest exclusives on PlayStation were third party (MGS and Final Fantasy were the heavy hitters). Sony has really turned around their in house developers since then and now WWS is highly regarded. However, that only happened because Sony was forced to create its own exclusives rather than receiving exclusive third party support by default.

Microsoft is now in a similar situation.
 
Dreams is a risky western game...
It's a risky game period, but a blessing in disguise most aren't aware of yet ;)

Simple, because this killing streak might be over as soon as MS releases a new console. And even the NX might (!) have an effect.

That said, Sony must be prepared for whatever the competition comes up with. They cant start to develop PS5 when MS announces their new console, which would give them a head start. Pretty sure guys like Cerny already have an idea about the concept of the PS5, resp. they are already working on it.
Even in the best case scenario, NX is just going to pull an N64 like performance against PS4, which'll likely carry on reaching somewhere between PS1-PS2 levels of success. It's relative of course; NX should be able to at least nearly double N64's numbers WW if Nintendo plays their cards right building a machine that actually impresses enthusiasts and entices casuals through software alone like N64 managed (Mario 64 was very popular w/ the mainstream when it came out, not just core gamers), but PS4 has too much momentum to be totally sidelined by it. It may slow that momentum down very slightly, but even with consistent 3rd party support and release schedules I don't see NX completely slowing PS4 down all that much, simply b/c Nintendo has that much work to do to gain back the level of good will that'd see them make that type of dent to Sony.

Now XBO, otoh....I can easily see a successful NX cannibalizing XBO's remaining WW momentum (which outside of a few key markets is nothing impressive). If they have a stellar line-up for next year's launch, get 3rd parties on-board at least somewhere in the ballpark of where they had w/ them in N64/Gamecube times (leaning for both b/c Western 3rd parties were stronger on N64 but Japanese were stronger on Gamecube or at least seemed that way at times) and price competitively, I can see the XBO's momentum being stalled in its strongest markets, since NX would effectively become a "better" 2nd console option for those who have PS4s, simply b/c of the Nintendo exclusives, let alone the other games.
 
Oct 18, 2012
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Halo used to be huge though.
With Bungie, true.

I bet you didn't know that the chatter among a lot of gamers was that Microsoft had better first party offerings going into the PS3/360 generation. Basically, the feeling was that the biggest exclusives on PlayStation were third party (MGS and Final Fantasy were the heavy hitters). Sony has really turned around their in house developers since then and now WWS is highly regarded. However, that only happened because Sony was forced to create its own exclusives rather than receiving exclusive third party support by default.

Microsoft is now in a similar situation.
100% agree with you. Sony did a big jump on PS3 since developers were doing better on X360 and yes, Microsoft is in a similar spot right now.

But I didn't mean any comparison in my post, I just wanted to point it out Microsoft didn't prepare their teams for the situation they are right now. I think they never expected they would lose so much since X360 was really good for them. Looking back to the original xbox, they killed many ips last gen to focus on their biggest ips and kinect. They lost Bungie which would be the same if Sony lost ND. Downhill began on 2010 IMO.

I think Spencer and his team are doing their best, but there is so much they can do to fix Microsoft's own decisions. They have ips to work with, but don't have enough talented teams to do the job. It doesn't help to invest millions to make teams to work only on one ip specifically too.

Never saw Sony change their focus on their first party, we can clearly see the evolution from psone till now. Of course, nothing is perfect. Sony closed some of their studios which sucks. But they build a long history in games and one that Microsoft will take years to match or maybe never will.
 
Dec 27, 2006
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I bet you didn't know that the chatter among a lot of gamers was that Microsoft had better first party offerings going into the PS3/360 generation. Basically, the feeling was that the biggest exclusives on PlayStation were third party (MGS and Final Fantasy were the heavy hitters). Sony has really turned around their in house developers since then and now WWS is highly regarded. However, that only happened because Sony was forced to create its own exclusives rather than receiving exclusive third party support by default.

Microsoft is now in a similar situation.
Eh... I don't see it, while it's true that the biggest hitters on PS2 were third party exclusives like GTA, FF, MGS, etc Sony's output was no slouch either with the likes of Socom, Jak and Daxter, Dark Cloud, God of War, Ratchet and Clank ICO, Shadow of the Collosus and so on I'm not seeing any turn around with the PS3 generation other than consolodating SCEJ, SCEA and SCEE under the SCEWWS umbrella.
 
Feb 16, 2010
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Eh... I don't see it, while it's true that the biggest hitters on PS2 were third party exclusives like GTA, FF, MGS, etc Sony's output was no slouch either with the likes of Socom, Jak and Daxter, Dark Cloud, God of War, Ratchet and Clank ICO, Shadow of the Collosus and so on I'm not seeing any turn around with the PS3 generation other than consolodating SCEJ, SCEA and SCEE under the SCEWWS umbrella.
Listen, we all know the only heavy hitters come from KOEI. Let's not kid ourselves here.
 
Jan 13, 2009
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Releasing another system so soon after the launch of the Xbox One (4 years, going by some predictions) would generate a lot of bad will. The Xbox brand can't afford that right now and I don't see it happening. This generation may not last as long as the previous one but it's not going to be that short.
 
Mar 20, 2007
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Releasing another system so soon after the launch of the Xbox One (4 years, going by some predictions) would generate a lot of bad will. The Xbox brand can't afford that right now and I don't see it happening. This generation may not last as long as the previous one but it's not going to be that short.
Agree; Can't see the next Xbox releasing any time before Fall 2018.
 
Aug 31, 2013
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Hey, sorry I'm so tardy &#8212; holidays &#8212; but I wanted to say this was super helpful! <3 Sorry, I got thrown off when simplayer labeled both values "x" and I thought we were plotting them on the same axis. This makes way more sense though. lol

All r-squared really does is explain how much of a change in X can be explained through changes in Y. In this case, the data suggest that 96% of the change in Physical SW Spend can be explained by changes in Physical Title Count.
Gotcha, and thanks again. What does "r-squared" actually mean? It not referring to the radius, obviously&#8230;

In order to use tie ratios appropriately for this math, you would need to measure only that portion of the installed base that was active. However, the active installed base for any platform over any time period is impossible to know. For example, in 2015, a vast majority of software sales are being done on PS4 and Xbox One, yet a majority of the installed base is still PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii. Looking at tie ratios, one would have to include the entire PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii installed base since the active portion of that installed base is unknown. I trust you see why this would be problematic. So no, tie ratios are not the right metric to use. Software consumer spend is as it already takes into account active portions of the installed base, price, etc. and does represent, ultimately, demand.
You're saying tie ratios don't work because some of the users might not even buy games anymore? If we're only looking at the active customers for a given sample, shouldn't we also look at the titles which were actively being sold, rather than cumulative releases?

Also, is there a reason we're looking at consumer spend instead of unit sales? Shouldn't we actually look at both, especially if we're trying to figure out what happened to all the games? Actually, what are we even charting here? Seemingly not the six release counts we looked at initially, since we've got two values in the 700-800 range. So the first/upper three points are &#8230; cumulative Wii release counts and spending at three different points in time, maybe? What are the other three data points?

All you can really see here is that 96% of the change in Physical SW spend can be explained by changes in Physical Title Count.
How do we know it's not the other way around, with 96% of the change in title counts being explained by the change in spending? They're clearly joined together, but how do we know which one leads the dance?

This is obviously a complicated situation. You can't expect to win a debate by simply stating that you are right. On closer inspection it can't be as simple as you describe or else publishers would just make more games. There isn't any explanatory value in your thesis. It doesn't give any reason why publishers made fewer games.
This, basically. Clearly, there are fewer games moving through retail now, but I don't think the explanation is as simple as, "They just make less."

The whole point is that there are alternative possibilities to what's going on in the market than "everyone's going digital" or "everyone's gone to mobile".
"Everyone's going digital/mobile" was actually offered as an explanation for the decreased action at retail &#8212; for both supply and demand &#8212; but you didn't wanna entertain the possibility of substitution, and insisted it was because retail was simply being underserved on the supply side, and argued that spending would return if only supply did, just as it dropped as supply dropped. But again, it makes more sense that changes in demand would influence changes in supply, so what makes you so sure it's the other way around?

If we want to know whether "Everyone is going digital" has any validity, shouldn't we also be looking at digital release counts and spending before we declare that any games have gone missing at all? Is there really fewer games now, or did a bunch of them go digital, taking spending along with them?


When you do update the data could you tell us the p-value?
What's a p-value?
 
Feb 16, 2010
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There is no reliable data source for gauging spend on digital titles.

So it's analysis that cannot be done.

If you want to aggregate digital release counts that would be great. Since no reliable source exists to measure spend, however, I don't see the exercise as being valuable. If you do, go for it.

Physical release count and physical spending correlate. That's all I'm saying, because the math supports it. If you choose to still not believe that for any reason that's great.

I'm done with the whole conversation. I'm going to update the data sets at the end of the year, and then I'm done talking about the topic.
 
Mar 1, 2012
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Releasing another system so soon after the launch of the Xbox One (4 years, going by some predictions) would generate a lot of bad will. The Xbox brand can't afford that right now and I don't see it happening. This generation may not last as long as the previous one but it's not going to be that short.
I say there will be at least 3 mainline Halo on Xbox one before a new system.
 

benny_a

extra source of jiggaflops
Apr 25, 2009
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But 343i could've set up a good production pipeline to get it down to every 2 years. They could for example re-use the boss fights.

The last sentence was just a joke but the transition to Xbone is complete and their engine seems like a good foundation to me.
Of course if they don't just want to push for more of the same and want new mechanics or features that increases the development time but if they basically made more Halo like Bungie used to do then I think it would be fine.
 
Sep 4, 2015
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With Halo 5 for this year and Halo Wars 2/Gears 4 for next year, it does make me wonder what their big exclusive will be for holiday 2017. I could actually see them trying to quicken the output of Halo to a two year cycle as well. Or they may try harder to get third party deals for 2017 to hold them over until Halo 6 in 2018.
 
Mar 1, 2012
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With Halo 5 for this year and Halo Wars 2/Gears 4 for next year, it does make me wonder what their big exclusive will be for holiday 2017. I could actually see them trying to quicken the output of Halo to a two year cycle as well. Or they may try harder to get third party deals for 2017 to hold them over until Halo 6 in 2018.
Halo 3 anniversary is a good bet.
 
Aug 31, 2013
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/P-value

It basically tells you the how comfortable you can be assuming that an independent variable is actually affecting the dependent variable. It helps identify whether correlation equals causation.
So it tells us whether there's a causal link? Does it tell us anything about which end of the linkage is being manipulated, so whether the drop in spending is caused by the drop in publishing, or vice versa?


There is no reliable data source for gauging spend on digital titles.

So it's analysis that cannot be done.
Sorry, I wasn't suggesting you provide the data personally. I was just saying that if we want to understand where the games have gone, we should probably look at digital. Physical and digital are just two delivery methods for the same product, so it seems reasonable that one would affect the other directly, because product flows through one avenue or the other.

If you want to aggregate digital release counts that would be great. Since no reliable source exists to measure spend, however, I don't see the exercise as being valuable. If you do, go for it.
True, knowing the supply wouldn't tell us much without the consumption data. I still feel like it's important though, even if it's difficult for us to examine personally.

Physical release count and physical spending correlate. That's all I'm saying, because the math supports it. If you choose to still not believe that for any reason that's great.
I'm not saying I don't believe it. Clearly publishing and spending have dropped. I was just trying to figure out what may have caused that.

I'm done with the whole conversation. I'm going to update the data sets at the end of the year, and then I'm done talking about the topic.
Err, sorry. It seemed like you felt that retail was being undersupplied, and I was just trying to figure out why you felt that way. I certainly didn't meant to upset you. I was just trying to figure out what you were seeing that I didn't. =/
 
Jan 20, 2013
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So it tells us whether there's a causal link? Does it tell us anything about which end of the linkage is being manipulated, so whether the drop in spending is caused by the drop in publishing, or vice versa?



Sorry, I wasn't suggesting you provide the data personally. I was just saying that if we want to understand where the games have gone, we should probably look at digital. Physical and digital are just two delivery methods for the same product, so it seems reasonable that one would affect the other directly, because product flows through one avenue or the other.


True, knowing the supply wouldn't tell us much without the consumption data. I still feel like it's important though, even if it's difficult for us to examine personally.


I'm not saying I don't believe it. Clearly publishing and spending have dropped. I was just trying to figure out what may have caused that.


Err, sorry. It seemed like you felt that retail was being undersupplied, and I was just trying to figure out why you felt that way. I certainly didn't meant to upset you. I was just trying to figure out what you were seeing that I didn't. =/

A p-value does not help identify whether a correlation is causal in nature, only if the correlation is (statistically) significantly different than zero.

It is simply a function of the sample to test a hypothesis.

There are a few precious ways of inferring causality from a dataset. The cleanest is a natural experiment, which is unlikely with consumption data. Several methods for almost-natural experiments exist (such as differences in differences, regression discontinuity, and more), but more often a researcher relies on exogeneity assumptions that need to be analyzed thoroughly.

I frankly don't understand why Queso lost it a little bit there. It was a perfectly reasonable line of questions and discussion, and very reasonable to, upon facing a very strong correlation, to actually ask what's causing it. You actually hit on both endogeneity and reverse causality on your thinking without even knowing what a p-value is -- which quite frankly, is pretty impressive.

If you are young enough and considering study paths, look into Econometrics :p
 
Aug 9, 2014
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With Halo 5 for this year and Halo Wars 2/Gears 4 for next year, it does make me wonder what their big exclusive will be for holiday 2017. I could actually see them trying to quicken the output of Halo to a two year cycle as well. Or they may try harder to get third party deals for 2017 to hold them over until Halo 6 in 2018.
If I had to guess, I would say Crackdown will be a Holiday 2017 title.
 
Mar 11, 2013
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How do we know it's not the other way around, with 96% of the change in title counts being explained by the change in spending? They're clearly joined together, but how do we know which one leads the dance?
This one is pretty simple in current case - you should look at dynamic.
If spending drops first and over some visible period of time number of titles drops - than drop in spending precede drop in number of titles. If they drop almost simultaneously - than drop on number of titles leads to lower spending.
Development have a significant inertia, and consumer spending have almost none. So looking how this system behave over time you'll clearly see what is the causation in this pair.

This graph need years attached to points to make a guess.
 
Aug 31, 2013
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A p-value does not help identify whether a correlation is causal in nature, only if the correlation is (statistically) significantly different than zero.

It is simply a function of the sample to test a hypothesis.

There are a few precious ways of inferring causality from a dataset. The cleanest is a natural experiment, which is unlikely with consumption data. Several methods for almost-natural experiments exist (such as differences in differences, regression discontinuity, and more), but more often a researcher relies on exogeneity assumptions that need to be analyzed thoroughly.
And the exogenic influences would be digital substitution, recessions, etc?

I frankly don't understand why Queso lost it a little bit there. It was a perfectly reasonable line of questions and discussion, and very reasonable to, upon facing a very strong correlation, to actually ask what's causing it. You actually hit on both endogeneity and reverse causality on your thinking without even knowing what a p-value is -- which quite frankly, is pretty impressive.
Thanks! <3 Figuring out how stuff works makes me happy, but I'm mostly self-educated and unguided, so I tend to "discover" the basic principles on my own, long before I stumble across a real expert who can then tell me what all that stuff is actually called. For example, it was just a couple of years ago that I learned that Socrates and I use the same Method. lol

Speaking of… endogenity. First, thanks for the pointer. <3 So does that mean that either both factors can be pulling each other up and down, or that there could be a third, unknown factor influencing them, but still internal to the system, lest it be considered exogenic? For example, retailer pricing? Then reverse causality is, "No, it was the drop in spending that caused the drop in publishing"?

If you are young enough and considering study paths, look into Econometrics :p
Nah, I'm probably like 43, but I train pretty well. You hiring? :p


This one is pretty simple in current case - you should look at dynamic.
If spending drops first and over some visible period of time number of titles drops - than drop in spending precede drop in number of titles. If they drop almost simultaneously - than drop on number of titles leads to lower spending.
Development have a significant inertia, and consumer spending have almost none. So looking how this system behave over time you'll clearly see what is the causation in this pair.

This graph need years attached to points to make a guess.
Yeah, that's kind of what I was thinking. Like Queso said though, there's only so much data we're actually able to examine. If we got really granular, we could maybe try to figure out which games were being lost at physical, which might give us more hints as to where those games are going and why.

I do think we should be careful about treating factors we can't measure directly as non-factors though. Nor should they be offered as a scapegoat, of course. I do think it's a valid point of discussion though, especially when the measurable factors leave us scratching our heads.
 
Dec 9, 2013
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With Halo 5 for this year and Halo Wars 2/Gears 4 for next year, it does make me wonder what their big exclusive will be for holiday 2017. I could actually see them trying to quicken the output of Halo to a two year cycle as well. Or they may try harder to get third party deals for 2017 to hold them over until Halo 6 in 2018.
I think it's more likely that they have a new franchise for 2017. Either that or halo 6( if they build upon Halo 5, I think that 2 years could get it done) but I'm more leaning towards a new game.