NPD Sales Results for October 2013 [Up2: 3DS, 360, Pokemon Combined, GTAV]

Nov 3, 2006
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There is no denying that Nintendo is in a difficult position.

Howeve they are a rich company so they can make drastic moves like buying developers or slashing price if they see the need.
Nintendo does not have enough cash on hand to "buy developers" or slash price to that degree. They'd go bankrupt trying. Free cash on hand can't solve everything- Blackberry is an excellent example here of a company that was at one point #1 in its market, yet lost incredible amounts of software while flush with cash on hand. They simply bled money into irrelevance.

I wouldnt really give that much credit to whatever a brand is. Nintendo ditched the Gameboy brand for a new brand "DS" and that wasnt a bad decision. Sonys brand playstation was considered something that could never fail but actually it wasnt invincible as well. Sure they should have killed the Wii earlier or supported it for two more years rather than letting it rot like they did (which i think was a bad bad decision) but at the end of the day if the product has the right price and compelling software it will sell.
"brand" is more complex than that. The "gameboy" and "nintendo DS" are platforms- still two different extensions of the same brand.

"playstation" was built by sony into something more than just the PS1 or PS2, it had almost become synonymous with gaming, as the atari and nintendo during the NES era had. Because their brand recognition was so strong (consumers would buy flaming piles of shit as long as it had "playstation" slapped on it) third parties were convinced early on to put a lot of support and titles in development for the PS3.

The Wii never had this advantage- it took everyone by surprise. The WiiU never had it either- by the time the WiiU launched, the Wii as a brand was basically dead, "Nintendo" was viewed as a risk in the console space, and publishers were more cautious.

fully agree with this. They need to have the price level at an level equal to 360 or Ps3 or + 50 $ max.
Even that won't really help that much. The casual market is gone, period. All that's left are the core (who already own PS360s) and the "laggard" market that only buys systems at budget pricing. Neither is invested in the nintendo ecosystem and won't be swayed easily by Donkey Kong, Zelda, Mario, etc. They simply haven't been playing those games. The core already owns a system that can play any third party game the WiiU puts out and will simply buy them for the platforms they already own. The laggard market will look at the vastly superior libraries and online networks of the PS360 and wonder why the WiiU is worth bothering with. On top of that, the PS3 and 360 have been profitable for some time and don't have ridiculously expensive controllers attached. it's just not possible for nintendo to out price drop them. they will ALWAYS be cheaper no matter what ninty does.
 
Apr 26, 2013
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Nintendo does not have enough cash on hand to "buy developers" or slash price to that degree. They'd go bankrupt trying. Free cash on hand can't solve everything- Blackberry is an excellent example here of a company that was at one point #1 in its market, yet lost incredible amounts of software while flush with cash on hand. They simply bled money into irrelevance.
.
I think we should not forget that the whole gaming business is based on selling you games. hardware is at the end of the day the entry fee you need to pay to get access to the games. you can have a piece of shit device but if it has the best games in the world people will buy it. so at the end of the game it boils down to "are there enough games to convince people to pay the entry fee"?

from that perspective i dont think nintendo games have reached irrelevance like blackberry has with their mobile phones either in terms of sales nor in terms of quality.

i do think however that they can do some smart purchases (like monolith or ND Cube) to further strengthen their position and that they can certainly lower the "entry fee" or shell out some extras to go with it.
Even that won't really help that much. The casual market is gone, period. All that's left are the core (who already own PS360s) and the "laggard" market that only buys systems at budget pricing. Neither is invested in the nintendo ecosystem and won't be swayed easily by Donkey Kong, Zelda, Mario, etc. They simply haven't been playing those games. The core already owns a system that can play any third party game the WiiU puts out and will simply buy them for the platforms they already own. The laggard market will look at the vastly superior libraries and online networks of the PS360 and wonder why the WiiU is worth bothering with. On top of that, the PS3 and 360 have been profitable for some time and don't have ridiculously expensive controllers attached. it's just not possible for nintendo to out price drop them. they will ALWAYS be cheaper no matter what ninty does.
did all people suddenly die?

jokes aside. the people are there and nintendo really specialised in getting those lapsed gamers a few years back. no denying that they have lost that ability somehow. however is it impossible to do? no its definately not. they can regain their old audience if they do their thing right.

also "vastly superior library" seems to be a highly subjective thing. dont forget that Nintendos own software is always considered topnotch in quality and are oftentimes big sellers as well.
Nintendo could have bought any number of developers in this past apocalyptic generation of devs going under. Great devs that would have filled huge holes in their portfolio such as Bizarre Creations, Eurocom, Vigil Games etc. They didn't. Hell they didn't even buy Atlus. And now theyre are just not that many people left to buy, many forced into smartphone development or lucky to make it big in PC dev.

Nintendo's riches also have to be saved in case they need to buyback all shares and become a private company again. If Nintendo were so cash rich, every WiiU doom topic wouldnt have "why isnt Nintendo spending more on marketing...?"
yeah they didnt under Iwata. That guys view on M&A is appalling.
 
Dec 15, 2005
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NeoGaf
Making profit, good and positive minshare, selling well.

I don't know if the Wii U is making any profits, but a lot of people don't know exactly what the console is or don't even care for it.
The sales are just terrible. Hell, it's selling less than the fucking Gamecube. Did Nintendo ever consider the Gamecube to be successful?

NOPE

Nintendo has to work hard if they want to turn the Wii U into a success. But seeing how they failed even with a year headstart, I just don't see it anymore. Considering that casuals have lost any interest in the Wii brand and Sony's and MS's new consoles are now being released, I expect the Wii U to have a rough time. Yep, even rougher that its first year.

I don't know why you are comparing the Wii U with the Playstation consoles, by the way. Sony's console always had support. That's the difference, and it matters a lot when casuals found a new gimmick. Nintendo's consoles have been struggling with support since 1996, and the casuals are not there anymore. What's left?
 
May 24, 2012
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Added one more figure to this list:

1. Grand Theft Auto V (360, PS3) - 1.1 million
2. Pokémon X (3DS) - >1.7 million combined with Pokemon Y
3. Pokémon Y (3DS) - See Pokemon X
4. Battlefield 4 (360, PS3, PC) - 825,000-850,000
5. Batman: Arkham Origins (360, PS3, Wii U, PC) - <650,000 (PS3 + 360 = 98.2%, Wii U = 1.8%)
6. Assassin’s Creed IV, Black Flag (360, PS3, Wii U) - <630,000 (Wii U = 1%)
7. NBA 2K14 (360, PS3, PC) - <400,000
8. Skylanders: Swap Force (Wii, 360, PS3, Wii U, 3DS) - <320,000
9. Lego Marvel Super Heroes (360, PS3, Wii U, 3DS, PC)
10. WWE 2K14 (360, PS3)
XX. Madden NFL 25 (360, PS3) - >150,000
XX. Just Dance 2014 (360, PS3, Wii U, Wii) - <150,000
XX: Beyond: Two Souls (PS3) - 120,000-125,000
XX: Sonic: Lost World (Wii U, 3DS) - <30,000
XX. Wii Party U (Wii U) - <20,000



PSV < 30k < Wii < 40k < 50k < Wii U < 60k < 100k < PS3 < 120k
I think we should have a bit more clarification:

34K < Wii < 35K
50K < Wii U < 51K

People keep saying 55K for some reason.
 
Nov 3, 2006
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I think we should not forget that the whole gaming business is based on selling you games. hardware is at the end of the day the entry fee you need to pay to get access to the games. you can have a piece of shit device but if it has the best games in the world people will buy it.
Again, more complicated than that. The Saturn, DC, and the GC all had VERY good games and were miserable failures next to the competition. No one bought them, despite the stellar lineup. The DC in particular was SIGNIFICANTLY better than the PS2 was for the first 6 months or so they were both on the market.

so at the end of the game it boils down to "are there enough games to convince people to pay the entry fee"?
they aren't. see above.

from that perspective i dont think nintendo games have reached irrelevance like blackberry has with their mobile phones either in terms of sales nor in terms of quality.
blackberry's descent into irrelevance wasn't anywhere near as fast as nintendo with the WiiU. it took several years and they had commanding marketshare against android and iOS for some time.

i do think however that they can do some smart purchases (like monolith or ND Cube) to further strengthen their position and that they can certainly lower the "entry fee" or shell out some extras to go with it.
There are no developers up for sale currently that nintendo is in any position to buy. The last one was probably Atlus, but even that developer isn't really all that strong outside of Japan, which is in decline in the console space. When developers and IP WERE up for grabs (as when THQ went bankrupt) nintendo made no move to purchase them. Is it POSSIBLE to buy a developer and IP to compete? yes. But there aren't any that exist now for nintendo to buy, and they don't have the cash or marketshare to bribe someone like capcom into exclusivity again.

jokes aside. the people are there and nintendo really specialised in getting those lapsed gamers a few years back. no denying that they have lost that ability somehow. however is it impossible to do? no its definately not. they can regain their old audience if they do their thing right.
those weren't "lapsed gamers." there WERE no lapsed gamers. The console audience as a whole has grown every single generation since the NES. There was exactly one generation and one system that brought "lapsed gamers" back and that was the PS1. those gamers are still here and we call them the "core."

What the WiiU brought in were the casual audience that would NEVER or very rarely pick up a console game, but nintendo did not have a strategy to retain them. Those gamers are not buying wiis, they are not buying wii software, they are not buying ps360s or software there, and they are not buying WiiUs. All indications are that they are out of the console space completely and not coming back.

also "vastly superior library" seems to be a highly subjective thing. dont forget that Nintendos own software is always considered topnotch in quality and are oftentimes big sellers as well.
comparing the entire library of the PS3 and 360 vs what the WiiU has currently is not subjective at all. There is a lot more of it, it costs less, and critically there are plenty of games that score higher than any software on the WiiU available on both consoles. That's not subjective, that's just fact. The PS360 software library advantage is insurmountable by the WiiU- there are 8 years worth of games from every studio worth mentioning, and the online infrastructure (both for play and purchase) is vastly superior.

If the WiiU was clearly better in terms of performance (as next gen is) to set itself apart that would be one thing, but there are 3 and 4 year old games available for PS360 that perform as well or better than anything on the WiiU, and they can be had for next to nothing new or used. Edit: It's also worth mentioning that the third party developers abandoning the WiiU completely are still supporting the PS360 with new games for the next two years or so.
 
Nov 13, 2011
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That's a 12.5K weekly average, so about a 4K increase over how the Wii U was selling before. I suppose that's a 50% increase in percentage terms.
So pretty much:
1. Make the Wii U
2. ?
3. Profit.
You do realise that's a meme derived from a nonsensical business plan about gnomes stealing underwear somehow leading to profit and is generally used sarcastically, and that it really doesn't help any arguments about Wii U recovering.

Essentially you're venturing into the realm of "something will happen that will get people to buy the Wii U and if it did then they'll start buying these games again," that some unpredictable phenomenon will strike; something I've really no interest in entertaining discussion about.
 
Jun 6, 2004
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Added one more figure to this list:

1. Grand Theft Auto V (360, PS3) - 1.1 million
2. Pokémon X (3DS) - >1.7 million combined with Pokemon Y
3. Pokémon Y (3DS) - See Pokemon X
4. Battlefield 4 (360, PS3, PC) - 825,000-850,000
5. Batman: Arkham Origins (360, PS3, Wii U, PC) - <650,000 (PS3 + 360 = 98.2%, Wii U = 1.8%)
6. Assassin’s Creed IV, Black Flag (360, PS3, Wii U) - <630,000 (Wii U = 1%)
7. NBA 2K14 (360, PS3, PC) - <400,000
8. Skylanders: Swap Force (Wii, 360, PS3, Wii U, 3DS) - <320,000
9. Lego Marvel Super Heroes (360, PS3, Wii U, 3DS, PC)
10. WWE 2K14 (360, PS3)
XX. Madden NFL 25 (360, PS3) - >150,000
XX. Just Dance 2014 (360, PS3, Wii U, Wii) - <150,000
XX: Beyond: Two Souls (PS3) - 120,000-125,000
XX: Sonic: Lost World (Wii U, 3DS) - <30,000
XX. Wii Party U (Wii U) - <20,000
.

Where is the breakdown of console share for Skylanders, Lego Marvel and Just Dance?
 
Apr 26, 2013
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Again, more complicated than that. The Saturn, DC, and the GC all had VERY good games and were miserable failures next to the competition. No one bought them, despite the stellar lineup. The DC in particular was SIGNIFICANTLY better than the PS2 was for the first 6 months or so they were both on the market.
DC also was abandoned by Sega due to financial reasons. Nobody knows what would have happened if they would have sticked with the dreamcast.


blackberry's descent into irrelevance wasn't anywhere near as fast as nintendo with the WiiU. it took several years and they had commanding marketshare against android and iOS for some time.


those weren't "lapsed gamers." there WERE no lapsed gamers. The console audience as a whole has grown every single generation since the NES. There was exactly one generation and one system that brought "lapsed gamers" back and that was the PS1. those gamers are still here and we call them the "core."

What the WiiU brought in were the casual audience that would NEVER or very rarely pick up a console game, but nintendo did not have a strategy to retain them. Those gamers are not buying wiis, they are not buying wii software, they are not buying ps360s or software there, and they are not buying WiiUs. All indications are that they are out of the console space completely and not coming back.
I think at this point we can agree that Nintendo has done horribly with the WiiU so far for reasons I think we both agree upon.

However the difference is that I do think that they can come back to a reasonable position and you think they are out of the console space (id like to add that I think that they will release another console even if the WiiU fails like you predict). I think we can both agree to disagree on each others diverging prediction respectively.




comparing the entire library of the PS3 and 360 vs what the WiiU has currently is not subjective at all. There is a lot more of it, it costs less, and critically there are plenty of games that score higher than any software on the WiiU available on both consoles. That's not subjective, that's just fact. The PS360 software library advantage is insurmountable by the WiiU- there are 8 years worth of games from every studio worth mentioning, and the online infrastructure (both for play and purchase) is vastly superior.

If the WiiU was clearly better in terms of performance (as next gen is) to set itself apart that would be one thing, but there are 3 and 4 year old games available for PS360 that perform as well or better than anything on the WiiU, and they can be had for next to nothing new or used. Edit: It's also worth mentioning that the third party developers abandoning the WiiU completely are still supporting the PS360 with new games for the next two years or so.
well duh. PS360 was on the market for how long? I am talking about Nintendos First Party IPs and the Top franchises on PS360 (that will probably release on PS4Xbone and PC but not WiiU)
There are no developers up for sale currently that nintendo is in any position to buy. The last one was probably Atlus, but even that developer isn't really all that strong outside of Japan, which is in decline in the console space. When developers and IP WERE up for grabs (as when THQ went bankrupt) nintendo made no move to purchase them. Is it POSSIBLE to buy a developer and IP to compete? yes. But there aren't any that exist now for nintendo to buy, and they don't have the cash or marketshare to bribe someone like capcom into exclusivity again.
I already stated that I disagree with Iwatas thinking on third party support and M&A. However he may change his mind or Nintendo have another CEO in the future. Even if there are no devs for sale "hostile takeovers" are also possible. also there are quite a few devs in the industry that are not in a stable financial situation.
 
Nov 3, 2006
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DC also was abandoned by Sega due to financial reasons. Nobody knows what would have happened if they would have sticked with the dreamcast.
Even ignoring the fact that the DC was abandoned due to financial reasons, it doesn't explain the saturn, and doesn't explain the GC, both of which were on the market for 4+ years. The DC also only sold what it did because sega dropped it to fire sale prices immediately to compete with the PS2. Without blowing them out at $99-$149, the DC wouldn't have even come close to the ten million mark.


I think at this point we can agree that Nintendo has done horribly with the WiiU so far for reasons I think we both agree upon.

However the difference is that I do think that they can come back to a reasonable position and you think they are out of the console space (id like to add that I think that they will release another console even if the WiiU fails like you predict). I think we can both agree to disagree on each others diverging prediction respectively.
Correct. I don't believe it is possible for the WiiU to come back to a reasonable position. There are simply too many things wrong with it and too much competition. In one way or another, the WiiU is competing with the PS3, 360, PS4, Xbone, AND Cheap android tablets, smartphones, and ipads. This is simply too much.

Who exactly is the audience for the WiiU? Core gamers already own PS360s. Gamers looking for a budget console are going to be drawn to the PS360. Gamers who care about online gaming are going to look at anything BUT the wiiU. Gamers who are interested in the next big thing are looking at PS4/Xbone. Gamers who are interested in playing any third party games at all are going to be looking at anything but the WiiU.
Gamers who really love tablets can pick up a kindle fire for $150 or less.

The only real market for the WiiU appears to be gamers who love nintendo's first party output to the exclusion of all else. The WiiU at this point is a $300 Smash brothers and mario kart machine, and there's not enough gamers in love with either of those franchises to get this system out of the basement.

well duh. PS360 was on the market for how long? I am talking about Nintendos First Party IPs and the Top franchises on PS360 (that will probably release on PS4Xbone and PC but not WiiU) I already stated that I disagree with Iwatas thinking on third party support and M&A. However he may change his mind or Nintendo have another CEO in the future. Even if there are no devs for sale "hostile takeovers" are also possible. also there are quite a few devs in the industry that are not in a stable financial situation.
When talking "laggards" who are not invested in ANY platform right now (this is basically who is buying PS360s and budget consoles right now, along with people getting second systems for other rooms and breakage reasons) you don't just look at "first party." you look at all games available for the system. If one platform has 80 games on the shelf and the other has 10, and both systems are the same cost and performance level then the 80 game system will win out every single time. This is what the wiiU is up against. And since none of these third party franchises (like GTA/Red Dead/Skyrim/Castlevania/Dead Space/Dark Souls/Tomb Raider/Saint's Row/Hitman/Diablo/etc) will EVER come to WiiU (again, third parties have written this system off completely and are cancelling titles) they may as well be first party. Slap a "never on Wii U" sticker on these, because they're not coming. FUTURE support for these system is also going to be stronger, because EA/Activision/Ubi have committed to cross gen titles for two years, but are not putting these titles on WiiU. so you're looking at a better catalogue AND better future support, from 8 year old consoles nintendo can't out price.

and that's not even getting into the fact that anything with an online component (which is pretty much everything now) will be superior on the HD twins simply because the community is larger. The WiiU is very badly positioned against those two. it will never have their library, can't outperform them, can't out price drop them, and doesn't have their infrastructure.

and LOL at "hostile takeovers". Do you know how those actually work? do you realize any company that's not completely new will not put themselves in a position where this is possible?
 
Sep 7, 2013
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You do realise that's a meme derived from a nonsensical business plan about gnomes stealing underwear somehow leading to profit and is generally used sarcastically, and that it really doesn't help any arguments about Wii U recovering.

Essentially you're venturing into the realm of "something will happen that will get people to buy the Wii U and if it did then they'll start buying these games again," that some unpredictable phenomenon will strike; something I've really no interest in entertaining discussion about.
Yes I do, it was a joke...

But I thought my point was clear. I think the "casual audience is gone to mobile and is never coming back" argument is tired and stupid. A better argument is Nintendo has failed to demonstrate to casuals why they should buy a Wii U. But just because Wii Party U or Brain Age bomb doesn't somehow mean Nintendo's failed beyond repair, those games didn't perform the way they did last gen for incredibly obvious reasons. Not starting with compelling software is not a unique problem in this industry, it's not as hard to fix as saying the casual market is gone makes it sound.
 
Nov 13, 2011
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Thanks, Aquamarine.
Yes I do, it was a joke...

But I thought my point was clear. I think the "casual audience is gone to mobile and is never coming back" argument is tired and stupid. A better argument is Nintendo has failed to demonstrate to casuals why they should buy a Wii U. But just because Wii Party U or Brain Age bomb doesn't somehow mean Nintendo's failed beyond repair, those games didn't perform the way they did last gen for incredibly obvious reasons. Not starting with compelling software is not a unique problem in this industry, it's not as hard to fix as saying the casual market is gone makes it sound.
Nintendo haven't just failed to demonstrate to casuals why they should buy the Wii U, they've failed to demonstrate to pretty much anybody besides their most ardent fanbase why they should buy the Wii U.

That an audience has lapsed and/or moved is as hard a problem to fix as it sounds. Attracting that audience back isn't a small feat.
Nothing they have released or announced for the system lends any confidence in them doing so.

What you're arguing is that they'll be able to create something that does this, something that's unannounced and completely unpredicted. It's essentially the same as throwing "Secret Wii U Game" on the chalkboard. And again, I really don't see the point in discussions to such effect.
 
Dec 7, 2011
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Nintendo could have bought any number of developers in this past apocalyptic generation of devs going under. Great devs that would have filled huge holes in their portfolio such as Bizarre Creations, Eurocom, Vigil Games etc. They didn't.
Yup.

Nintendo's riches also have to be saved in case they need to buyback all shares and become a private company again. If Nintendo were so cash rich, every WiiU doom topic wouldnt have "why isnt Nintendo spending more on marketing...?"
I always wonder why they don't do that.

I mean, they are extremely conservative with their spending and they don't seem to be interested in growing too much or expanding their business beyond the videogame market.

I don't see how being publicly traded actually benefits them in any meaningful way. Having to answer to a bunch of clueless corporate suites that don't know squat about gaming and don't give a shit about the long-term state of the company and its IPs does them more harm than good.

I honestly think that Nintendo would be much better as the Japanese version of Valve.
 
Aug 8, 2008
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It's hard to say without knowing digital sales at all, but I *think* the number is just retail.

^ Please note, I may be unreliable with this statement, so if I get this wrong, don't blame me.
I think the number came from a Nintendo PR (http://press.nintendo.com/articles.jsp?id=40925). The wording is kind of vague, do they usually do retail only? I would have thought they would combine them to make the numbers look better - not that 1.7 mil isn't a great number in either scenario.
 
May 24, 2012
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The number came from a Nintendo PR (http://press.nintendo.com/articles.jsp?id=40925). The wording is kind of vague, do they usually do retail only? I would have thought they would combine them to make the numbers look better - not that 1.7 mil isn't a great number in either scenario.
You would think that, but maybe PR was in a rush or they only had access to NPD numbers for whatever reason?

I don't know...I'm not confirming anything.

I'll email Nintendo and ask whether it's just NPD numbers or if it combines it with digital as well.
 
Sep 28, 2013
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I see a lot of economic experts on this thread on what Nintendo should do to boost the sales of the WiiU...

I want to go back on each point raised by the users (and some assumptions).

Nintendo should ditch the gamepad
It's a terrible, terrible thing to do. What about the games already available which needs the gamepad like ZombiU, Lego City Undercover, TW101, NintendoLand, Deus Ex HR and the games currently developped for the plateform. Nintendo can't break the compability of the games like that and updating the games isn't a solution either (because it can modify a lot the experience).

They should lower the price to $200
The loss will be too important to be recovered with the sales of the games. You have to remember that Nintendo is a videogame company only, they don't have others subsidiaries to help them if they have financial issues on their videogame branch like Microsoft or Sony (and even them are really fragile now).
Slash the price of the WiiU again will nearly kill Nintendo.

Nintendo should kill the WiiU and release a new console by 2015
It's as absurd as removing the gamepad. It'll kill the little credibility left that Nintendo has with the Third Party. Also, i don't think that's possible to conceive a good hardware within 1-2 years (see the results with the PS4 and the Xbox One, it's barely ready after 4-5 years).

If Nintendo hasn't boost their sales by the end of the year, the WiiU is doomed
Wrong. The majors home Nintendo titles are coming next year, in 2014. It's the decisive year for Nintendo, not this one. In addition, it's almost guaranteed that they will sell more WiiUs next year than this one thanks to Mario Kart, Smash Bros, possibly Zelda WiiU for Christmas 2014 (but only in western for Zelda, it's not a popular franchise in Japan).
The WiiU lineup for 2014 is quite solid for the moment : DKCTF, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Bayonetta 2, X, Watch_Dogs and possibly Yarn Yoshi, the third Sonic project and Zelda WiiU (i think also to "SMTxFire Emblem" and certainly more unannounced projects yet from Nintendo as usual now). It's possible that the 2014 WiiU lineup will be like the 2013 lineup for the 3DS. As Nintendo has launched a very good impulse for the 3DS, they can let it in autopilot and focus their effort on the WiiU)

You have to remember that the release of the lasts consoles were pretty hard (PS3, DS, 3DS, PSP and Vita). The initial sales were good but then they weren't until the beginning of the second FY (the price drop for the PS3, the DS Lite and NintenDogs/Brain Age for the DS, Mario Kart for the 3DS, a lot of titles for the PSP after several years, Vita... it's almost too late now). The history show us that now the consoles are slow burners. I'll not be surprised if the "WiiU"-effect hit the PS4 and Xbone.

About the Thrid-Party, i'm sad to see them doing no effort on the WiiU (i.e at least the same quality/feature levels than PS360 games at least, release all the cross-gen on WiiU too and to try to use the hardware of the console). The assertion that Nintendo users buy Nintendo games is partially wrong, the issue is that the Third Party doesn't treat the Nintendo gamers like the gamers of the two others consoles. In my cas i have a lot of more Third Party games on WiiU than Nintendo ones (6 vs 3 for a 9 retail titles in total) but i only buy games which worth it (NFSMWU because it was the superior version and i could grab it for 25€ at the release, NBA2K13 because it's on the new console than a dying one, Deus Ex WiiU because it's a really good port, ZombiU because it's a really good experiment, Sonic LW because it's an exclusive game and Injustice for the same reason that NBA2K and because it's not a bad port).

The others like Batman, Mass Effect, etc doesn't have the same quality/features level than the others versions, that's why i don't buy them (and i prefer to play them on PC, but i'm willing to do an effort if it's needed, so i'll buy Watch_Dogs on WiiU also).

The Third Party have to play fair if they want to sell us games, we aren't stupid (for most of us). It's also difficult to find some WiiU Third Party games in stores at Paris at the release date, that's why they shouldn't surprise to see bad sales if it's not stock properly at the retailers.
Take also note that the current WiiU population buy games, a lot of games, the tie ratio is at 1 WiiU for 5 games which is very good at this point. The issue is more the offer i think that the Nintendo gamers who are not willing to buy non-Nintendo games.

There is a lot more to say but i'll stop here. Have fun anyway!
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
May 21, 2006
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You have to remember that the release of the lasts consoles were pretty hard (PS3, DS, 3DS, PSP and Vita). The initial sales were good but then they weren't until the beginning of the second FY (the price drop for the PS3, the DS Lite and NintenDogs/Brain Age for the DS, Mario Kart for the 3DS, a lot of titles for the PSP after several years, Vita... it's almost too late now). The history show us that now the consoles are slow burners. I'll not be surprised if the "WiiU"-effect hit the PS4 and Xbone.
History shows us that no console in the last 15 years has been as slow a burner as the Wii U :p
 
Mar 25, 2005
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Canada
History shows us that no console in the last 15 years has been as slow a burner as the Wii U :p
PS3 and 3DS's worst month of US sales (early 2007 for PS3 and 2011 for 3DS back when people were declaring the systems dead) wasn't that much lower than the Wii U's post price cut month in September when hardware sales tripled over the 30k or so it was selling in May-Aug.
 
Sep 7, 2013
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Nintendo haven't just failed to demonstrate to casuals why they should buy the Wii U, they've failed to demonstrate to pretty much anybody besides their most ardent fanbase why they should buy the Wii U.

That an audience has lapsed and/or moved is as hard a problem to fix as it sounds. Attracting that audience back isn't a small feat.
Nothing they have released or announced for the system lends any confidence in them doing so.

What you're arguing is that they'll be able to create something that does this, something that's unannounced and completely unpredicted. It's essentially the same as throwing "Secret Wii U Game" on the chalkboard. And again, I really don't see the point in discussions to such effect.
Again, my point is not to say that it will happen. My only point is that "that audience is gone now, they have smartphones and tablets" is a lazy argument. It's Gaf trying to predict as early as they can that a product is doomed that way later on they can say they were right if the product always remains a failure. No, the Wii U isn't done/dead.

To give you another example, it reminds me of the Media Create Vita discussions last year when people went from arguing "those are terrible sales, they must do something" to "by late next year, the Vita will be discontinued. It has no upcoming third-party games of any importance, and those that could be will sell better on PSP or PS3. Third parties will not want to develop games for the Vita, they will make them for mobile or 3DS and therefore the retailers will not bother keeping the Vita on the shelves.*"

Fast-forward to this year, and without the Vita even being a success, see how short-sighted the latter argument was. If the Wii U (or the Vita) fail, it will be for other, more complex reasons. The audience is gone argument is so fucking annoying because it's so simplistic, it's repeated like 10 times per page in every thread.

*Funnier, if you're in Japan, walk into Yodobashi or Bic Camera or whatnot, and look at the sheer amount of space dedicated to the Vita.
 
Aug 25, 2013
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PS3 and 3DS's worst month of US sales (early 2007 for PS3 and 2011 for 3DS back when people were declaring the systems dead) wasn't that much lower than the Wii U's post price cut month in September when hardware sales tripled over the 30k or so it was selling in May-Aug.
except the Wii U remains stuck in that range while those two got out of it quickly
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Aug 7, 2013
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This franchise used to sell three times that in it's launch month, Ubisoft should probably be concerned about its longevity.
Ubisoft's FY2012 profits were largely driven by Just Dance. Furthermore, the Just Dance series accounted for more than 40% of their revenue that fiscal year. I would be concerned as well.
 
Mar 25, 2005
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2 months to sell 500k and break 1 million?

HERE WE GO
Last year, 3DS sold 540k in November and 1.25M in December. December was 2.3x higher than November. If Wii U follows that same sales pattern, it will need to sell 150k next month to be in a position to sell 350k in December.

Last year, the Wii sold 420k in November and 475k in December. If the Wii U follows this path instead, it would need 235k next month and the remainder in December.

3DS' October was somewhere in the 213-250k range. So, at best, it increased 2.53x from Oct to Nov. Wii U will need a better increase than that in November to follow the 3DS' trajectory.
 
Jan 2, 2007
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Even if you accept the premise that Wii U can have a turnaround like the 3DS or PS3, you have to accept the financial realities of those turnarounds. Both products had fairly historic price cuts, and in Sony's case, reaching price parity with the 360 for the generation cost them billions of dollars. Nintendo could presumably eat that kind of loss to prop up the Wii U at $199 or $249, but will shareholders accept that now that Iwata has promised a return to profitability? And in the case of the Vita in Japan, where the sales have gone from catastrophically bad to a step above mediocre, they fixed one of the fundamental flaws of the console (no storage memory out of the box) while also dropping the price.

I think we should not forget that the whole gaming business is based on selling you games. hardware is at the end of the day the entry fee you need to pay to get access to the games. you can have a piece of shit device but if it has the best games in the world people will buy it. so at the end of the game it boils down to "are there enough games to convince people to pay the entry fee"?
The problems are more similar than you think. RIM suffered criticism for increasingly irrelevant hardware that ignored the advances made in other convergence devices (notably the iPhone), and an OS that lagged behind competitors in usability and apps. Does that sound familiar?

from that perspective i dont think nintendo games have reached irrelevance like blackberry has with their mobile phones either in terms of sales nor in terms of quality.
The games aren't irrelevant. It's more that the hardware, services, 3rd party ecosystem, and the price are so undesirable that consumers who are interested are willing to pass because it's simply not worth investing in the console when there are better options for power and software variety.

As others have mentioned, the PS360 will have better 3rd party support than Wii U at least through 2015. That's 3 years being completely outclassed (and probably outsold) by the low end of the market that you can't compete with on price.

i do think however that they can do some smart purchases (like monolith or ND Cube) to further strengthen their position and that they can certainly lower the "entry fee" or shell out some extras to go with it.
What has ND Cube done other than the ultra flop Wii Party U? What has Monolith done besides one game that Nintendo of America didn't even want to localize? These are not the kind of acquisitions that will lead to a turnaround. The time to expand development resources was 2010-2012, when MS and Sony were expanding their dev teams or creating new ones with the express purpose of developing next gen engines. Nintendo is now stuck with relatively modern hardware with only a handful of dev teams experienced with making modern games, and the only Western team is making 2D games.

did all people suddenly die?

jokes aside. the people are there and nintendo really specialised in getting those lapsed gamers a few years back. no denying that they have lost that ability somehow. however is it impossible to do? no its definately not. they can regain their old audience if they do their thing right.
The iOS app store, the Google Play store, Facebook, Steam, and Kinect address the needs of pretty much every casual gamer that Nintendo had attracted from 2004-2009. The 3DS' periodic spikes have been due to Nintendo doubling down on their traditional software (Mario Kart, Luigi, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, Kid Icarus, Pokemon, also MonHun in Japan), with consumers almost completely ignoring some of the breakout hits that helped carry the DS line (Brain Training, Layton, Nintendogs).

Problem is, Nintendo can't make Wii U software nearly as fast (nor as cheaply) as they can 3DS software. Why is there no proper Wii Sports 3? Kinect Sports 3 is actually going to beat it to market.

also "vastly superior library" seems to be a highly subjective thing. dont forget that Nintendos own software is always considered topnotch in quality and are oftentimes big sellers as well.
Nintendo can't support a console completely alone. The Wii had a stigma of being a poor platform for marquee 3rd party games, but it had hundreds of games released from nearly every publisher, and in sheer volume they sold a lot of 3rd party software. The console with the most software releases typically sells the most, because quality is subjective.

yeah they didnt under Iwata. That guys view on M&A is appalling.
Iwata won't be around forever. Nintendo will still have to fix the mess he left behind though.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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I hope AC:IV meets expectations. I love the series. Even 3! I miss the good old days of the NPD threads. I understand that the combined charts make more sense for business analyst but the bitter tears of the fan boys sure was sweet.
 
Apr 26, 2013
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The games aren't irrelevant. It's more that the hardware, services, 3rd party ecosystem, and the price are so undesirable that consumers who are interested are willing to pass because it's simply not worth investing in the console when there are better options for power and software variety.

As others have mentioned, the PS360 will have better 3rd party support than Wii U at least through 2015. That's 3 years being completely outclassed (and probably outsold) by the low end of the market that you can't compete with on price.
Yes but hardware is still the entry fee for your games. Its games what people want to buy and play not the hardware. And yes the entry fee is way to high for the few games that are on the market at the moment. Nintendo probably should pay third parties to port games on their platforms to minimize financial risk for the third parties (wont happen under iwata).
What has ND Cube done other than the ultra flop Wii Party U? What has Monolith done besides one game that Nintendo of America didn't even want to localize? These are not the kind of acquisitions that will lead to a turnaround. The time to expand development resources was 2010-2012, when MS and Sony were expanding their dev teams or creating new ones with the express purpose of developing next gen engines. Nintendo is now stuck with relatively modern hardware with only a handful of dev teams experienced with making modern games, and the only Western team is making 2D games.
Even though i agree that ndcube and monolith is not enough that doesnt mean that the acquisitions were flops. nd cube is basically the ex mario party team from hudson and they did have a lot of multi million seller hits. Wii party u is also a title that is important for nintendo beyond whatever the first month or week sales is. They need to have games like that on the market to attract certain demographics.

About monolith.. Well xenoblade was an awesme game imho. Too bad you refuse to try it just because NOA is too arrogant to bring it over and retail it properly.

And come on... Saying MS idid a better job with cultivating first party studios is a joke.
Nintendo can't support a console completely alone. The Wii had a stigma of being a poor platform for marquee 3rd party games, but it had hundreds of games released from nearly every publisher, and in sheer volume they sold a lot of 3rd party software. The console with the most software releases typically sells the most, because quality is subjective.



Iwata won't be around forever. Nintendo will still have to fix the mess he left behind though.
Yeah thats clear. They need a much higher headcount to have at least double the output compared to what they have at the moment. Of course under iwata there is no chance that will happen.
 
Jul 25, 2007
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Wrong. The majors home Nintendo titles are coming next year, in 2014. It's the decisive year for Nintendo, not this one. In addition, it's almost guaranteed that they will sell more WiiUs next year than this one thanks to Mario Kart, Smash Bros, possibly Zelda WiiU for Christmas 2014 (but only in western for Zelda, it's not a popular franchise in Japan).
The WiiU lineup for 2014 is quite solid for the moment : DKCTF, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Bayonetta 2, X, Watch_Dogs and possibly Yarn Yoshi, the third Sonic project and Zelda WiiU (i think also to "SMTxFire Emblem" and certainly more unannounced projects yet from Nintendo as usual now). It's possible that the 2014 WiiU lineup will be like the 2013 lineup for the 3DS. As Nintendo has launched a very good impulse for the 3DS, they can let it in autopilot and focus their effort on the WiiU)
The problem with this line of thinking is that it's ignoring current market realities and rifts in platform fanbases. As good as Watch Dogs might be, we're talking about third party sales from a company where one of their most recent big Wii U releases only managed to put up 1% of its total sales across all other consoles. Bayonetta 2 is already appealing to a super niche regardless, and that number is going to be even more constrained considering how few NA players buy action games, let alone quirky Platinum Games' developed action games (even with a big IP name attached like Metal Gear) who actually happen to own a Wii U. Sonic is going to be a non-issue because he's close to dead no matter what hemisphere of the globe you go to.

Smash is going to be directly effected by the 3DS release cannibalizing its sales. SMT x Fire Emblem has a big problem right now because it's essentially on the wrong platform given the circumstances both games went through (both titles had resurgences both in Japan and NA somewhat, and were heavily cross-promoted; the problem with this is that they were promoted to a niche of 3DS owners that may or may not even have a Wii U/want to buy one). I wouldn't be surprised if they eventually announced a 3DS version of that once they reveal new information, especially since you have a better chance of capturing 3DS owners who actually bought and played both games rather than just hoping that said fanbases happen to also own WiiUs/would be willing to jump ship.

At best, Nintendo might have sure fire shots with Zelda Wii U/Yarn Yoshi/DK/etc. But the outlook is not much better in 2014 due to the combination of Iwata not finding problems with Wii U droughts and third parties being more and more reluctant to give consistent support to the system. At the very least, Nintendo can support the 3DS much easier and in a much more time effective (and probably cost effective) manner than they can with the Wii U (in case point, A Link Between Worlds and Pokemon X/Y) while they also have some third party releases to fall back on in lapse periods.
 
Nov 30, 2009
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...and I remember being mocked for saying Nintendo should buy THQ. Although, I have to admit, the degree of Nintendo's incomptence at HD development was a surprise for me, as well. I thought they needed volume, not just skill set. Turned out they needed both. Which Iwata completely missed.
 
Jul 17, 2006
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Nintendo should ditch the gamepad
It's a terrible, terrible thing to do. What about the games already available which needs the gamepad like ZombiU, Lego City Undercover, TW101, NintendoLand, Deus Ex HR and the games currently developped for the plateform. Nintendo can't break the compability of the games like that and updating the games isn't a solution either (because it can modify a lot the experience).
If they drastically changed the name of it and slightly retool the OS and apps, it could still be done. Basically you'd just market as a brand new system that cannot play any game branded "Wii U" while insuring that Wii U owners can also play games made for that new system. People complain about the name anyway, so kill two birds with one stone. It would definitely cost some money to make it work, but Nintendo could be looking at true desperation mode really soon if Mario 3D World and Mario Kart doesn't do extremely well and would need to do something drastic.

They should lower the price to $200
The loss will be too important to be recovered with the sales of the games. You have to remember that Nintendo is a videogame company only, they don't have others subsidiaries to help them if they have financial issues on their videogame branch like Microsoft or Sony (and even them are really fragile now).
Slash the price of the WiiU again will nearly kill Nintendo.
Agreed. As a business, Nintendo still needs to actually make money.

Nintendo should kill the WiiU and release a new console by 2015
It's as absurd as removing the gamepad. It'll kill the little credibility left that Nintendo has with the Third Party. Also, i don't think that's possible to conceive a good hardware within 1-2 years (see the results with the PS4 and the Xbox One, it's barely ready after 4-5 years).
Partly right, but it's a very sticky situation. The main problem with 3rd party support is the weak hardware. There's no reason to build Wii U versions of their engines and technology when they're going to completely stop support of the PS3/360 generation in the matter of 2 years. 2016 is probably the earliest they could have the next console ready, and by then they may have the same problem since 3rd parties might be starting to look at PS5 and XB2.

Still at least it'd be 2-3 years of parity, plus 2 years of transitional support, plus maybe a few more if sony/ms drag out the gen as long as last gen, so it maybe enough to make third parties to care if Nintendo can get it to sell fast from the start. Getting the next console to sell from the start is probably going to be as hard whether it launches 2015 or 2020 or anywhere in between, but if Nintendo can find a really cool selling point, maybe they have a chance.

If Nintendo hasn't boost their sales by the end of the year, the WiiU is doomed
Wrong. The majors home Nintendo titles are coming next year, in 2014. It's the decisive year for Nintendo, not this one. In addition, it's almost guaranteed that they will sell more WiiUs next year than this one thanks to Mario Kart, Smash Bros, possibly Zelda WiiU for Christmas 2014 (but only in western for Zelda, it's not a popular franchise in Japan).
The WiiU lineup for 2014 is quite solid for the moment : DKCTF, Smash Bros, Mario Kart, Bayonetta 2, X, Watch_Dogs and possibly Yarn Yoshi, the third Sonic project and Zelda WiiU (i think also to "SMTxFire Emblem" and certainly more unannounced projects yet from Nintendo as usual now). It's possible that the 2014 WiiU lineup will be like the 2013 lineup for the 3DS. As Nintendo has launched a very good impulse for the 3DS, they can let it in autopilot and focus their effort on the WiiU)

You have to remember that the release of the lasts consoles were pretty hard (PS3, DS, 3DS, PSP and Vita). The initial sales were good but then they weren't until the beginning of the second FY (the price drop for the PS3, the DS Lite and NintenDogs/Brain Age for the DS, Mario Kart for the 3DS, a lot of titles for the PSP after several years, Vita... it's almost too late now). The history show us that now the consoles are slow burners. I'll not be surprised if the "WiiU"-effect hit the PS4 and Xbone.
You also have to realize the Wii U is doing way worse than any of those systems did back when they were struggling. There really never has been a major system to do this bad worldwide in the first year, including the failed Sega systems. It almost needs to triple sales going forward just to be upgraded from epic failure to just failure.

To think that Mario, Mario Kart, and Smash can save the system is simply putting way to much belief in those franchises. Given the fact that Nintendo franchises have been losing appeal every gen with the one exception of the Wii (thanks to Wii Sports), and the fact that NSMBU and the Wii ____ franchises haven't done super impressive on the Wii U despite huge success on Wii, I see no reason to believe iterative games from those franchises are enough to save the system.

DS turned things around with Nintendogs and Brain Age, the first games to actually successfully target a non-gaming crowd. PSP turned things around with Monster Hunter, a game that created a new social multiplayer paradigm. PS3 turned things around with MGS4, which gave an end to a decade long story that gamers were heavily invested in.

I just don't think NSMBW but in 3D is something that holds the same market appeal as those other games. Especially not when casuals usually have a hard time with 3D controls.

The one thing you're right about is that they should wait until Mario Kart and maybe Smash comes out before they see exactly how drastic their steps will need be to save their console business. But you can be sure they are going to need some sort of drastic steps to save the console business no matter what. They can't afford to just continue in this way for another 4 full years.
 
Jun 18, 2013
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Smash is going to be directly effected by the 3DS release cannibalizing its sales. SMT x Fire Emblem has a big problem right now because it's essentially on the wrong platform given the circumstances both games went through (both titles had resurgences both in Japan and NA somewhat, and were heavily cross-promoted; the problem with this is that they were promoted to a niche of 3DS owners that may or may not even have a Wii U/want to buy one). I wouldn't be surprised if they eventually announced a 3DS version of that once they reveal new information, especially since you have a better chance of capturing 3DS owners who actually bought and played both games rather than just hoping that said fanbases happen to also own WiiUs/would be willing to jump ship.
Yeah SMT x FE on Wii U just boogles my mind. It should have been a 3DS game from the get go...
 
Jan 21, 2008
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sites.google.com
Well, gonna do it in the prediction threads anyway, might as well say already: Wii U is going to do 300k in November and 450k in December.

In that scenario, it reaches 1.26 million this year. XB1 and PS4 might sell more than that in 2013 (I see 1.5 million is their bestest case scenario.)

Wii U is 12 NPD months old, happy birthday. The total is ~1.4 million. (Vita managed 1.3 million. RIP in peace.)

Battlefield and Assassin's Creed down as forecast by the UK market. COD will be down too (following the same indication). Gonna have to wait a couple months to have a better idea of how big the next-gen effect is.

Anyway, now we wait for launch hardware sales. Maybe Sony will say something about the PS4 launch in NA this week, but I won't be surprised if we hear first about XB1 (since it'll have launched in the biggest western markets one week earlier),
 
Umm it just occured to me that starting from the next NPD (the next week in fact) Wii U will be competing with FOUR consoles:

- PS3
- PS4
- Xbox 360
- Xbox One
- (Wii)

That is... not a good situation for the little machine.
The new iPhone and iPad will also be soaking up casual money in this period.
 
Apr 28, 2012
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Nintendo can't support a console completely alone. The Wii had a stigma of being a poor platform for marquee 3rd party games, but it had hundreds of games released from nearly every publisher, and in sheer volume they sold a lot of 3rd party software. The console with the most software releases typically sells the most, because quality is subjective.
Your causation is inverted. The console that sells the most receives the most software releases for obvious publisher reasons of return on investment.

This is an important distinction, because the Wii wasn't a success on the basis of 3rd party output, not at all. A mere handful of huge 1st party releases like Wii Sports blew up its sales, and those packed shelves of lesser games were little more than late publisher attempts to quickly cash in on what had happened.
 
Feb 27, 2010
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It's so interesting how all 3 can have such great strengths and such terrible weaknesses in gaming at the same time.

Nintendo finds a way to sell their handhelds in a world where 10 year olds are carrying smartphones but badly misreads the home market

Sony went from full of themselves to being the most receptive to home console audiences wants, yet seemingly have no idea how to transfer that success to handhelds.

Microsoft was able to beat Sony at their own game early and Nintendo at their own game late in the generation, but is now on their 4th or 5th re-dedication to PC gaming in the last 8 years.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
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The new iPhone and iPad will also be soaking up casual money in this period.
I have a feeling the strongest challenger for Wii U is the one still not mentioned: 3DS. Not just because it will be the best-selling console this Holidays, next-gen included, but because right now it's seen as the ONLY Nintendo machine to have, due to having a wide (and growing) library of Nintendo and thrid party (90% Japanese, but still) titles, with Nintendo titles characterized by high quality in general, and, overall, a much better offering right now and even in the future...for a low price (2DS at 99.99 on Black Friday, let's say just this).
 
May 19, 2009
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Umm it just occured to me that starting from the next NPD (the next week in fact) Wii U will be competing with FOUR consoles:

- PS3
- PS4
- Xbox 360
- Xbox One
- (Wii)

That is... not a good situation for the little machine.
Potentially... was this the Wii U's best year?
Probably not, but... that would be funny if it was thanks to the arrival of (more) competition.
 
Feb 5, 2009
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Please don't get into trouble XD
Yes I do, it was a joke...

But I thought my point was clear. I think the "casual audience is gone to mobile and is never coming back" argument is tired and stupid. A better argument is Nintendo has failed to demonstrate to casuals why they should buy a Wii U. But just because Wii Party U or Brain Age bomb doesn't somehow mean Nintendo's failed beyond repair, those games didn't perform the way they did last gen for incredibly obvious reasons. Not starting with compelling software is not a unique problem in this industry, it's not as hard to fix as saying the casual market is gone makes it sound.
Your arguments are pure wishful thinking, basically you are ignoring reality, the evidence is right infront of you.

@Price droppers whatever it takes: Please see GameCube. First system to 99 mass market price, most key Nintendo heavy hitters already released by that time, completly diferentiated from competition (to it's detriment thanks to Nintendo) and that translated in nothing. Now just consider that the Wii U is in a far worst position. A price drop will only atract the rest of the core Nintendo base that havent jumped in due to value reasons. Those guys are been served by the 3DS btw.