• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
  • The Politics forum has been nuked. Please do not bring political discussion to the rest of the site, or you will be removed. Thanks.

NPD Sales Results for October 2015 [Up1: Xbox #1]

N.Domixis

Banned
May 30, 2013
6,882
0
310
http://news.xbox.com/2015/11/20/xbo...counts/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Black Friday Deals: $299 Xbox One Consoles, 150+ Discounted Games and Gold for $1!

Here are the deals you need to know about:

From Thursday, Nov. 26 through Monday, Nov. 30 in the U.S., select console bundles will be available starting at $299, the lowest price ever for Xbox One. You can also save $50 on any of our 12 Xbox One holiday bundles:

Xbox One Limited Edition Halo 5: Guardians Bundle
Xbox One Elite Bundle
Xbox One 1TB Holiday Bundle
Xbox One Gears of War: Ultimate Edition Bundle
Xbox One Fallout 4 Bundle
Xbox One The LEGO Movie Videogame Bundle
Xbox One Rise of the Tomb Raider Bundle
Xbox One FIFA 16 1TB Bundle
Xbox One Special Edition Gears of War Bundle
Xbox One with Kinect Bundle
Xbox One Limited Edition Forza Motorsport 6 Console (Nearly sold out)
Xbox One Madden NFL 16 Bundle (Nearly sold out)



They seem to be going all in for Black Friday.

Holyshit, does this mean I can get the halo bundle for 299$?
 

RexNovis

Banned
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
3
0
JAPAN
twitter.com
this is actually pretty good lol, I hope you are bored more often lol

10/10. I want you writing material for the website immediately.

You might even say it's the best faux book pitch on the 66th page of a November 2015 NPD results thread!

Do you sell snake-oil???

No but I did sell vacuum cleaners door to door one summer. It sucked.

Boredom + spirits. Always a fun time. ok for real I'll stop now
 

slavesnyder

Member
Nov 18, 2013
4,304
0
355
Yea it still floors me how many bundles they are putting out. 12 separate bundles is just absolute overkill IMO. Honestly I think it will only serve to confuse the average consumer even more than they already are. Especially given the large variation in pricing betwixt them.

Channel stuffing and shelf space conquering
theoretically not un-clever, but not very convenient to produce and manage.

Also a problem: If a retailer order all 12 bundles in smaller amount and in the end all customers want only two or three of them you are double-fucked.
no stock of the wanted
overstock of the unwanted
 

Elandyll

Banned
Oct 13, 2014
7,121
0
0
Arizona
Channel stuffing and shelf space conquering
theoretically not un-clever, but not very convenient to produce and manage.

Also a problem: If a retailer order all 12 bundles in smaller amount and in the end all customers want only two or three of them you are double-fucked.
no stock of the wanted
overstock of the unwanted
Imo Amazon is a good sample of what will be (is) popular in terms of bundles for the Holidays...

1- GeoW bundle
2- Fallout4 bundle
3- Holiday bundle
4- Halo5 bundle
 

slavesnyder

Member
Nov 18, 2013
4,304
0
355
Imo Amazon is a good sample of what will be (is) popular in terms of bundles for the Holidays...

1- GeoW bundle
2- Fallout4 bundle
3- Holiday bundle
4- Halo5 bundle

Well, if some retailer ordered huge amounts of Lego, Tomb Raider or Kinect it's darvinism anyway.
 

mejin

Member
Oct 18, 2012
6,755
10,879
950
Brazil
12 bundles? Microsoft is crazy. lol

Just focus on 3 or 4 bundles peple really want and it'll be okay.
 
Dec 3, 2013
8,418
2
0
http://news.xbox.com/2015/11/20/xbo...counts/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Black Friday Deals: $299 Xbox One Consoles, 150+ Discounted Games and Gold for $1!

Here are the deals you need to know about:

From Thursday, Nov. 26 through Monday, Nov. 30 in the U.S., select console bundles will be available starting at $299, the lowest price ever for Xbox One. You can also save $50 on any of our 12 Xbox One holiday bundles:

Xbox One Limited Edition Halo 5: Guardians Bundle
Xbox One Elite Bundle
Xbox One 1TB Holiday Bundle
Xbox One Gears of War: Ultimate Edition Bundle
Xbox One Fallout 4 Bundle
Xbox One The LEGO Movie Videogame Bundle
Xbox One Rise of the Tomb Raider Bundle
Xbox One FIFA 16 1TB Bundle
Xbox One Special Edition Gears of War Bundle
Xbox One with Kinect Bundle
Xbox One Limited Edition Forza Motorsport 6 Console (Nearly sold out)
Xbox One Madden NFL 16 Bundle (Nearly sold out)



They seem to be going all in for Black Friday.
12 bundles? Has this ever been done before? MS might beat Sony again if Sony isn't aggressive like MS is (with prices, not having this many bundles lol)
 

RexNovis

Banned
Sep 8, 2013
7,105
3
0
JAPAN
twitter.com
12 bundles? Has this ever been done before? MS might beat Sony again if Sony isn't aggressive like MS is (with prices, not having this many bundles lol)

Only a handful of those are at the $299 price point on Black Friday. The rest are just discounted by $50 over the previous MSRP.

MS has become so used to spinning things even their Black Friday ads need explanation.
 

OEM

Member
Nov 28, 2014
971
0
0
Still no Halo 5 299 bundle. Why? I think they don't want to lose money on Halo. They are betting on people to get that game anyway with any bundle they buy.
 

blakep267

Member
Dec 9, 2013
6,321
2
210
Still no Halo 5 299 bundle. Why? I think they don't want to lose money on Halo. They are betting on people to get that game anyway with any bundle they buy.
I still think they are saving that bundle for early next year. The gears bundles and fallout bundles should be gone by February or so, then they bring the $350 halo 5 bundle out for a few months
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Jul 7, 2015
5,237
0
0
Italy
twitter.com
@Microsoft, you can't just make two billions bundles for sell this holidays.

You need a magaton bundle like last year Assassin's Creed Unity + Black Flag at $349 and $329 during Black Friday.

Those $399 bundles will do nothing.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Oct 13, 2014
7,121
0
0
Arizona
Well, if some retailer ordered huge amounts of Lego, Tomb Raider or Kinect it's darvinism anyway.
Aye.

Still scratching my head about the Lego bundle in particular... Seemed to me it was a dead giveaway that they were going to go to a wide $299 for two months during the Holidays... But no.
 

Crimson_Gold

Member
Feb 7, 2013
11,107
0
0
Aye.

Still scratching my head about the Lego bundle in particular... Seemed to me it was a dead giveaway that they were going to go to a wide $299 for two months during the Holidays... But no.

I think the division went all out last year and weren't afforded the budget to do those types of deals again. After seeing all of the gains made last holiday slip away,it became clear that a fire sale wouldn't help much this year.

The numerous bundles are an attempt to appeal to the many different demographics out there. It seems a bit overzealous and misguided. We shall see how the holiday season goes, but I don't expect much traction to be gained. Traction meaning putting a dent in Sony's lead
 

Nightengale

Member
Jun 12, 2013
21,443
0
500
Yeah, at this stage, it's pretty clear MS wasn't given the blank cheque they had last year to go crazy ala AssCreed 329-349 bundles.
 

Kill3r7

Member
Jun 19, 2014
8,896
1
320
Yeah, at this stage, it's pretty clear MS wasn't given the blank cheque they had last year to go crazy ala AssCreed 329-349 bundles.

TR should have been that bundle (500GB bundle instead of the 1TB model and not exclusive to BB) but alas it was not meant to be.
 

crinale

Member
Sep 25, 2008
5,986
0
0
Has XB1 received any internal re-design (for reducing BOM) like new PS4? Without it BOM would remain the same IMHO.
 

watdaeff4

Member
Feb 28, 2015
3,743
0
410
Yeah, at this stage, it's pretty clear MS wasn't given the blank cheque they had last year to go crazy ala AssCreed 329-349 bundles.
No inside knowledge at all, just speculation. I wonder if last year they were worried about install base and getting their doors completely blown off in the USA after Sept PS4 sales. (They knew WW was altogether screwed)

This year they are "ok" enough where they are at (in the US) and want to maximize returns.

Just speculation
 

EGM1966

Member
Aug 5, 2011
10,350
0
0
UK
Yeah, at this stage, it's pretty clear MS wasn't given the blank cheque they had last year to go crazy ala AssCreed 329-349 bundles.

I believe that last year was seen as a chance to catch up and generate enough momentum to then overtake the PS4 in the US. When sales nose-dived when the promo price ended (as they seemed to by all accounts) and MS had to drop the price permanently then saw PS4 make up most of its lead again I suspect it was agreed at MS there was no point throwing away profits chasing a goal they might not even attain.

I think, particularly given Nadella's statements, that their focus will be more slow/steady going forward with less crazy deals and attempts to catch up fast. They know WW they're coming second and they're probably coming close second in US too so better to consolidate a good reputation, recover and protect brand and generate profit vs chasing number one in US at any cost.
 

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
Apr 27, 2006
6,105
0
0
37
Stockholm
All these negative posts about MS Holiday strategy and yet their November is going to be awesome

I think it's more along the lines "they should have done so much better". It's the 8/10 game you're so disappointed in because it wasn't 10/10.
 
"Pride and Passion" byPhil Spencer. From the man who brought you "It has a Duration" and "The Illusive Exclusive Comma" comes the story of a young console with its head in the cloud seeking the right owner. Will it be the successful middle aged salaryman/woman with the disposable income to spare, the adventurous college student with the desire to explore new worlds, or the bright eyed immature newcomer with something to prove? There's no telling what sort of entanglements unfold, flurries of uppercuts are thrown and webs are spun when the true pride and passion of the one and only all in one entertainment center comes to a store near you this holiday season.

i was bored... Honestly it couldn't be helped once the idea took root

While I thoroughly enjoyed It Has a Duration, The Illusive Exclusive Comma was a bit misleading. I was expecting one thing from the description on the back cover, but the book was about something completely different. I'll still probably read Pride and Passion, but I'm pretty sure I'll only finish about 1% of it and will buy it digitally like 8 of my other friends.
 

On Demand

Member
Dec 12, 2013
6,132
4,261
705
No inside knowledge at all, just speculation. I wonder if last year they were worried about install base and getting their doors completely blown off in the USA after Sept PS4 sales. (They knew WW was altogether screwed)

This year they are "ok" enough where they are at (in the US) and want to maximize returns.

Just speculation

I've always said that there's no need for MS to do deals like last year this holiday, they're in a different position since then. There was a reason why they had to. Doing it again would be a waste of money.
 

QaaQer

Member
Jun 13, 2012
11,330
0
0
Shinobi's Dec console game release thread sure is barren. There are 2 retail releases. Is that normal?
 

Blanquito

Member
Jul 19, 2013
2,003
0
0
All these negative posts about MS Holiday strategy and yet their November is going to be awesome

Wait, aren't you the person that said XB1 bundle will outsell the PS4 Battlefront bundle when both are at $299 for BF because the XB1 also came with a $30 gift card?

Anyway, XB1 should have a good holiday season. PS4 will probably just have a better one, but that doesn't mean XB1's will be bad. And it'll certainly be more profitable than last year's holiday.
 

watdaeff4

Member
Feb 28, 2015
3,743
0
410
I've always said that there's no need for MS to do deals like last year this holiday, they're in a different position since then. There was a reason why they had to. Doing it again would be a waste of money.
Agreed I also think EGM1966 above has a pretty good speculative approach to the situation
 

CosmicQueso

Member
Feb 16, 2010
14,234
1
0
Mars
I've really enjoyed the back and forth, surfer. I come here to get assumptions challenged and to be forced to think through things thoroughly. So thanks.

Oh, really? I'd been told there were numerous third-party million-sellers on Wii.

Just shy of 40 3rd party games reached that threshold. I would call maybe 4, tops, of those "shovelware" which is the term you used I was referring to. Very little "shovelware" had any kind of sales success.

That's because they cranked out a bunch of releases with different collections of songs, I assume? (As opposed to selling instruments, which I assume get tracked as accessories.)

Guitar Hero and Rock Band were cultural phenomena in the US. They couldn't make enough for a couple years there, then it cratered. You can see it in the chart. Instruments sold with Software in the bundles is counted as software revenues, not accessories.

How much of that stuff did they sell? Just how big is that peak, in dollars? (What exactly is the difference between spending in 2006 and spending in 2008?)

You know I can't tell you that. It was a lot.

So, handhelds weren't a significant part of the spike? I noticed a few interesting landmarks…

No, handhelds were not a significant part of the spike. Same trend chart, this time console only.



I'm really at a loss to explain why we're discussing the health of the console market without actually examining it. =/

LOL, I'm not discussing the health of the console market. I keep typing this.

Sorry, what does that mean?

Regression to the mean is, at its most basic, is a technical way of saying things even out over time.

Look at the 1993 to 2006 trend in that chart. Some bumps in the road, but generally, you can throw a line in there and have a pretty good chance of being close to any particular year's performance.

But then 2007 comes along, huge spike. Kotick says "games are recession proof" people go nuts thinking that video games will grow forever and hundreds and hundreds of games are made, shovelware and not. But then, in 2009, you start seeing the regression to the long term average, which we again hit in 2012.

And what happened in 2012? People were screaming that the death of consoles was here, no one would buy PS4 or Xbox One, Mobile was king blah blah blah. Companies stopped investing as much in developing games.

But since then? Well, we've come down even farther below the mean, but signs are that sales should now grow back to the old average trend... back to regressing to the mean. But this can only happen if there's a normal distribution of content available. Which there isn't. Which is my whole and only point.

There's been a lot of substitutive spending

I don't think so. But agree to disagree.

But you're saying that the number of substitutional sales within that 2M is so small as to be "meaningless"?

Meaningless as in the substitutional buyers are more than made up for by the buyers who wouldn't have bought anyways.

Meaningless in the math, not meaningless as in unimportant.

Hmm. Do digital sales tend to have a long tail? You say there's lots of opportunity to buy because people spend so much more time in the on-console storefronts — I didn't know that was necessarily true either, actually — but I thought digital sales tended to be even more front-loaded than physical, with most digital buyers taking advantage of pre-loading, etc. I figured that's why 35% of your sales may be digital on launch day, but already down to 25% by the end of the week. So yeah, it seems like physical is getting a lot more "troll the store and see if there's anything good out"-type sales. Those who buy digitally seem kinda laser-focused, by comparison.* Is that not the case?

Couple really good points you make here. Yes, digital has a long tail but like you say ONLY when those titles are promoted. Discover-ability of catalog in digital is a huge challenge. When you go to Walmart or GameStop, you look at the shelf, and EVERYTHING is there, right? You look around, see some old game you remember wanting to play and you might pick it up.

On digital it's much more challenging because people have to seek out catalog, unless that catalog is promoted on a storefront page or through a sale.

Err, under no circumstances? Why do you say that?

There are some mental barriers for some people that if a title is digital only on the Consoles, that it somehow cannot be worth $60. Or that people want the ability to sell/trade a game once it's priced higher than $20. And far too many people are disc based buyers. To try and make a big budget, $60, AAA type game digital only in 2015 is not feasible. Perhaps in 10 years it will be.

So if per-title sales are flat, then maybe substitution is happening at roughly the previous rate of growth?

I do not think that it is fair to assume that average sales grow over time (which is why there's a very strong correlation between release count and total sales. If average sales grew over time, the correlation would be lessened).

But what I really hear you saying is that digital distribution is INCREMENTAL to the Packaged sales and growing the overall pie? Hmmm, where did I hear that before lol. Told you we agree.

That strikes me as a fuckton of additional sales — far too many to be merely incremental

Incremental - Increasing or adding on. "A "fuckton" of additional sales" = Incremental sales. We're saying the same thing.

So, you say there's not a meaningful number of "switchers" within that 25%. Is that correct?

Not at all. They are meaningful. But I'm saying more of those are additive to the pie than substitutive.

Oh, so you don't think we'll be at 40% digital in 3-4 years? Will we ever be? Do you also dispute the 20% digital figure?

I do not think 40% will be achieved this cycle. As for the future, it depends on what offerings are made for the next gen and what consumer choose. I do not dispute the 20%.

Well, sure. A physical release still gives your product a lot of additional exposure, so if your game turns out to be a hit, gambling on a physical release at launch can really be a windfall. On the other hand, if like most games, yours only turns out to be a moderate success, the additional costs and lower margins of a physical launch can more easily break you.

Ehhh, if you have a bad game, nothing will save you. The development costs absolutely dwarf packaged distribution costs. If you're going to lose money, you're going to lose money regardless of a packaged version.

A physical release might be a big win, but it's guaranteed to be a big risk.

I think you might be overstating the costs of Packaged distribution by a significant factor.

Because whatever the risks to their business that decision may involve, the potential payout will always be higher if you add a physical release?

Kind of. The addressable audience is certainly bigger when doing a Packaged release. You also get more press coverage and only with a disc will a portion of the game buying audience consider your game to be a "real game". Best you can do is tailor your offerings to multiple consumer segments.
 

Obliterator

Member
Apr 21, 2015
17,649
0
0
It will but is having 12 bundles really going to make much difference if they just focused on 3 or 4?

I think it's more along the lines "they should have done so much better". It's the 8/10 game you're so disappointed in because it wasn't 10/10.

Yeah I mean maybe they could be fine with 3 or 4. But why does it matter they have so many? People wont get confused they'll pick the one they want and go home.

Wait, aren't you the person that said XB1 bundle will outsell the PS4 Battlefront bundle when both are at $299 for BF because the XB1 also came with a $30 gift card?

Anyway, XB1 should have a good holiday season. PS4 will probably just have a better one, but that doesn't mean XB1's will be bad. And it'll certainly be more profitable than last year's holiday.

No. I did not say that. I said assuming PS4 has November on lock is a mistake. Xbox One will have a massive November as well.

And I still stand by that. The PS4 does not have November on lock. That said I believe the PS4 will likely take the month.
 
Jun 21, 2013
7,067
1
435
Virginia, United States
http://news.xbox.com/2015/11/20/xbo...counts/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Black Friday Deals: $299 Xbox One Consoles, 150+ Discounted Games and Gold for $1!

Here are the deals you need to know about:

From Thursday, Nov. 26 through Monday, Nov. 30 in the U.S., select console bundles will be available starting at $299, the lowest price ever for Xbox One. You can also save $50 on any of our 12 Xbox One holiday bundles:

Xbox One Limited Edition Halo 5: Guardians Bundle
Xbox One Elite Bundle
Xbox One 1TB Holiday Bundle
Xbox One Gears of War: Ultimate Edition Bundle
Xbox One Fallout 4 Bundle
Xbox One The LEGO Movie Videogame Bundle
Xbox One Rise of the Tomb Raider Bundle
Xbox One FIFA 16 1TB Bundle
Xbox One Special Edition Gears of War Bundle
Xbox One with Kinect Bundle
Xbox One Limited Edition Forza Motorsport 6 Console (Nearly sold out)
Xbox One Madden NFL 16 Bundle (Nearly sold out)



They seem to be going all in for Black Friday.
Horrible idea. Like others said, it's basically channel-stuffing, and is gonna confuse the average person. Typical people like choices, but not TOO many choices. I think Sony's done better w/ bundles in that regard. 3-4 is a good limit and ensures you've narrowed down to the bundles people actually want.

Guess we'll see how it all plays out, but it seems like a lot of unnecessary confusion.

All these negative posts about MS Holiday strategy and yet their November is going to be awesome
Again, we'll see what happens. They'll have a good November but I don't see them winning this time. Something about their bundle options last year seemed more consistent and focused. This year it looks like they're spreading the deck too wide and thin. Plus Sony has the Battlefront and COD official bundles effectively at $299, unlike last year when they were more expensive and didn't have bundles as good.

We'll see how MS's November plays out. Everyone thought October was gonna be awesome for them but it turned out to be lukewarm. Hopefully that's due to other factors and not some perceptible dropoff in purchasing interest for XBO.
 

Obliterator

Member
Apr 21, 2015
17,649
0
0
I mean its really not confusing. The only major bundles you will see substantially at retail this November are

Gears 500gb
Holiday 1TB

Everything else is in somewhat limited supply. It looks like a hell of a lot more than it is. These 2 are the primary channel with the Fallout 4 bundle also having decent stock
 

Aceofspades

Banned
Mar 31, 2015
3,731
7,712
865
You guys don't get it.

MS didn't plan to introduce 12 bundles for this BF, its a cumulation of all their bundles that has been setting on shelves throughout the year, they just want to clear the stock and BF is the perfect opportunity to work that out.
 

Obliterator

Member
Apr 21, 2015
17,649
0
0
You guys don't get it.

MS didn't plan to introduce 12 bundles for this BF, its a cumulation of all their bundles that has been setting on shelves throughout the year, they just want to clear the stock and BF is the perfect opportunity to work that out.

You get it. Congrats

Just out of curiosity, what kind of number do you have in mind when you say "massive"?

Should do a million or so
 

Blanquito

Member
Jul 19, 2013
2,003
0
0
No. I did not say that. I said assuming PS4 has November on lock is a mistake. Xbox One will have a massive November as well.

And I still stand by that. The PS4 does not have November on lock. That said I believe the PS4 will likely take the month.

Ah, yes, my bad. I stand corrected.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
20,961
0
0
You guys don't get it.

MS didn't plan to introduce 12 bundles for this BF, its a cumulation of all their bundles that has been setting on shelves throughout the year, they just want to clear the stock and BF is the perfect opportunity to work that out.

Yep. On top of this, I don't think having so many bundles will be that confusing either since a large portion of them are game oriented.

"I want a new system alongside Madden."
"I want a new system alongside Fallout."
"I want a new system alongside a Lego game for my kids."
"I want a new system alongside Tomb Raider."
"I want a new system alongside (Xbox exclusive)."

I would feel differently if the majority of bundles were simply different storage sizes with different included accessories.

But anyway, this should be a big month for both the PS4 and Xbox One. Expecting both to go over one million pretty easily.
 

Tivor Tontomo

Member
Jun 24, 2015
502
0
0
Have no idea why people here are acting like this holiday will be bad for the X1 and has no chance of beating the PS4 just because they didn't cut the price to $299 for all their bundles.
 

JeffZero

Purple Drazi
Dec 14, 2014
8,238
0
0
34
Mattoon, Illinois
So in light of the active player totals for Battlefront, I'm definitely doubling down on that prediction that Black Ops 3 gets #1, Fallout 4 gets a strong #2, and Battlefront is a distant third in the coming NPD. The rest is anyone's game, except that Rise of the Tomb Raider missed the chart.
 
Mar 9, 2015
1,551
0
0
So in light of the active player totals for Battlefront, I'm definitely doubling down on that prediction that Black Ops 3 gets #1, Fallout 4 gets a strong #2, and Battlefront is a distant third in the coming NPD. The rest is anyone's game, except that Rise of the Tomb Raider missed the chart.

I think my bet will be:

PS4: 1.2 million
X1: 950k
CoD: 5 million
Fallout 4: 4.2 million
BF: 3.4 million

I think you're underestimating the appeal of Star Wars to people who may not otherwise buy a game. I also think those bundles have likely sold a great deal, putting the game into many homes. BUT, we'll see!
 

Random17

Member
Jan 7, 2014
2,081
0
0
Auckland
Side question: What is the estimated loss (if any) for selling systems at effectively 299 for both Microsoft and Sony? The current set of consoles are a lot cheaper than their predecessors.

I managed to pick up an Xbox for (equivalent) 263 USD in NZ, and I would have had an even better deal if I managed to get one of the sold out bundles that had GOW remastered. Add in MCC and I reach 290USD. Add in another controller and I reach $330.

In contrast, I got my PS3+GOW3+extra DS3 for about $515 USD in 2010, accounting for exchange rates and inflation in NZ.
 

Massa

Member
Jan 16, 2009
16,846
1
0
Side question: What is the estimated loss (if any) for selling systems at effectively 299 for both Microsoft and Sony? The current set of consoles are a lot cheaper than their predecessors.

I managed to pick up an Xbox for (equivalent) 263 USD in NZ, and I would have had an even better deal if I managed to get one of the sold out bundles that had GOW remastered. Add in MCC and I reach 290USD. Add in another controller and I reach $330.

In contrast, I got my PS3+GOW3+extra DS3 for about $515 USD in 2010, accounting for exchange rates and inflation in NZ.

Don't think they're losing any money, the PS3 was just a terribly engineered system.