• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NPD Sales Results For October 2016

Overall:

October retail game sales are up 6% year over year.

Hardware was down 20% year over year.

Console and Handheld game sales were up 31% year over year.

Physical and Steam PC software sales were up 172% year over year.



Software:

  1. Battlefield 1 **
  2. Mafia III
  3. Gears of War 4 *
  4. FIFA 17
  5. NBA 2K17
  6. The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim *
  7. WWE 2K17
  8. Civilization VI
  9. Titanfall 2 **
  10. Madden NFL 17
* Digital sales are not included for Gears of War 4 or Skyrim, but are for every other game.
** Does not include EA Origin sales on PC.


Hardware:

XB1: #1 Console

Notes:
- - “Unit sales for the Xbox One brand of hardware grew by 8 percent compared to last October,” said Naji. “Average pricing for the Xbox One hardware fell by 17 percent due primarily to the release of the lower-priced 500GB Xbox One S Minecraft Bundle.”
- “The 3DS experienced its fifth straight month of year-on-year growth,” said Naji. “Both unit sales and consumer spending for October grew 12 percent as average pricing was flat year on year. It is likely that continued consumer interest in the Pokémon franchise and Monster Hunter: Generations has driven this growth.”
- “The PS4 Slim 500 GB Uncharted 4: A Thief’s End bundle was the month’s best-selling hardware across the category, accounting for 17 percent of total hardware units sold in the month,” said Naji. [Note: As an individual SKU. Xbox Ones sold more overall, but split between more bundles.]


Other Info:

We now have an NPD analyst who posts on GAF:

So yeah, great month for software overall. Battlefield 1 setting a new bar. The lower pricing for Xbox One was not promotionally driven but rather bundle mix driven, and the lower priced Minecraft bundle should continue to do very well through the remainder of Q4. 3DS' recent strength is continuing, likely to get even better in November. Solid month overall.
Those digital shares are inching up now. The 30% number Mr. Jorgensen [EA's CFO] put out there still a good baseline, but we're now seeing titles come in even stronger digitally.
Play early, digital bundles are all working very well. Raising digital shares and average pricing compared to physical. You're going to see much more of these tactics in the future.
Well keep in mind [Titanfall 2] only had a couple days in market. Not really apples:apples to the rest of the market.
I've looked at 24 months of sales (actual or projected) correlated to gameranking.com score on an individual platform basis (to remove discrepancies due to platform mix) a number of times over the years.

The last time I looked at this I did see a slight drop in the correlation. Ballpark, around 28-35% or so of the variability of sales between games released on the same platform can be explained by changes in quality score, depending on genre, etc. This is down a couple points from when I looked at it back in 2012. Not a huge drop, it's slight, but yeah.

From the math I've done, I see review scores being slightly less predictive on forecast ultimate sales of a title than they used to be.
Quality/Sales correlation is one of the things I've always been very interested in.

M rated RPGs show the most quality:sales correlation, btw. It's very high.

Family games, not surprisingly, are the lowest.
[Original Xbox One] bundles were not a primary driver of performance or pricing in October.
 

Nibel

Member
Oct 18, 2011
27,702
0
0
twitter.com
Very concerned for the future of the Titanfall IP; hope Respawn's Star Wars game will knock it out of the park saleswise
 

Obliterator

Member
Apr 21, 2015
17,649
0
0
Already talked about it in the other thread but I'm a bit surprised and really happy to see Gears 4 at number 3, especially considering Digital isn't tracked for it
 

Bruno MB

Member
Jan 3, 2012
4,307
0
650
Majorca - Spain
In a perfect world Dragon Quest Builders would be in the top 10.

I just hope it has sold better than Dragon Quest Heroes and Dragon Quest VII. I would be happy with 50,000 units, no idea if that would be enough for Square Enix though.
 

cordy

Banned
Dec 7, 2015
8,321
0
0
WWE outselling TF2 hurts.

I wish those games were just fucking good but they're not. No I don't wanna play a Kevin Owens with a still fucked up face WWE.
 

Somnia

Member
Sep 8, 2004
15,436
0
1,335
Only Gears and Skyrim do not have Digital included as Bethesda and MS do not share digital info with NPD.

FYI
 

Sterok

Member
Nov 3, 2014
3,182
0
0
A single franchise carrying an entire system. With just a little help on the side. That is the power of Pokemon.

Gears doesn't seem to have collapsed as badly as it did in the UK. Though without hard numbers who can say for sure. Been awhile since we got an open-world city, so Mafia III certainly had good timing. EA is just cleaning up in general, and Take 2 isn't too far behind this month. Meanwhile, Paper Mario not appearing cements Star Fox as the final Wii U exclusive to chart. What an end.
 

bishoptl

Banstick Emeritus
Jun 6, 2004
29,796
1
0
Canada
Based Mafia III putting in that work. Mission design was rough around the edges, but phenomenal gunplay and storyline makes up for it. Here's hoping that Titanfall 2 has the extended legs it deserves thanks to word of mouth.
 

Mass Effect

Member
Apr 24, 2011
11,120
4
0
Fuckin CiV PHYSICAL outsold TF2? The fuck? It does include digital, right?
Wow at Civ 6 physical over TF2
no guys, both include digital sales

Tbf tf2 has been f2p for a few years now.
-_-

you're not funny

Whatever the fuck that means.
I assume he means he hopes the Respawn SW games do well so they won't have to shutdown/downsize, because living off the Titanfall IP doesn't seem like a good strategy going forward.
 

felipepl

Member
May 31, 2009
5,149
0
795
Brisbane, Australia
Very concerned for the future of the Titanfall IP; hope Respawn's Star Wars game will knock it out of the park saleswise
Fuckin CiV PHYSICAL outsold TF2? The fuck? It does include digital, right?
Fucking hell!!

EDIT: oh NPD includes digital now?
WWE outselling TF2 hurts.

I wish those games were just fucking good but they're not. No I don't wanna play a Kevin Owens with a still fucked up face WWE.
Originally Posted by MatPiscatella:

Well keep in mind [Titanfall 2] only had a couple days in market. Not really apples:apples to the rest of the market.
 

excaliburps

Member
Jun 28, 2011
2,463
0
530
Middle-Earth or Tatooine
twitter.com
Based Mafia III putting in that work. Mission design was rough around the edges, but phenomenal gunplay and storyline makes up for it. Here's hoping that Titanfall 2 has the extended legs it deserves thanks to word of mouth.

I think it will, provided people don't scare potential buyers from hyperbolic "gaemz dead" statements.

It was only out for three days during that span, right?

Originally Posted by MatPiscatella:

Well keep in mind [Titanfall 2] only had a couple days in market. Not really apples:apples to the rest of the market.
And yep, there it is.
 

Ricky_R

Member
Dec 28, 2010
11,969
0
0
Originally Posted by MatPiscatella:

Well keep in mind [Titanfall 2] only had a couple days in market. Not really apples:apples to the rest of the market.
Also keep in mind that most video games' sales are front loaded. TF2 has great word of mouth so far though, so who knows.
 

cordy

Banned
Dec 7, 2015
8,321
0
0
Originally Posted by MatPiscatella:

Well keep in mind [Titanfall 2] only had a couple days in market. Not really apples:apples to the rest of the market.
My comment was less about how long TF2 was on the market but more of a shot towards the WWE games. I personally got TF2 on Nov 4 due to the Target deal.

I don't think any WWE game needs to sell 100 copies in 2016 given their quality. Hell, even 10.
 

Kathian

Banned
Jul 16, 2014
4,788
0
0
- “The 3DS experienced its fifth straight month of year-on-year growth,” said Naji. “Both unit sales and consumer spending for October grew 12 percent as average pricing was flat year on year. It is likely that continued consumer interest in the Pokémon franchise and Monster Hunter: Generations has driven this growth.”
Remains crazy. Not really talked about but the 3DS will likely continue selling into 2017 in a way the DS just couldn't support Nintendo into the 3DS.
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
572
0
0
Also keep in mind that most video games' sales are front loaded. TF2 has great word of mouth so far though, so who knows.
Certainly true. However, rank slots can tend to move a bit with more weeks in market. It's the bummer of having only monthly time periods to report on publicly.
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,512
0
420
Also keep in mind that most video games' sales are front loaded. TF2 has great word of mouth so far though, so who knows.
Hasn't helped in the UK. Launched at ~31k and is only at 59.9k right now. Performance on the XBL Most Played charts shows it being played by around the same amount of people as BF4 or in the #20's. Not good.
 

Roboculus

Member
Mar 29, 2016
306
0
0
Man it sucks to see how poorly Titanfall 2 has sold. Can only hope that word of mouth will help because this game definitely deserves to do better.