NPD Sales Results for September 2014 [Up1: Smash/HW/MK8, Destiny stats, 3DS HW]

Status
Not open for further replies.
May 31, 2013
23,628
0
0
At the end it is just my personal opinion.

And I agree with you about the fast dissemination... the number of non-GAF that follow the NPD thread is big... not only in the English gaming communities but outside too... I see a lot of Brazilian's forums liking the GAF numbers and I believe others countries have the same... well even a France gaming site used the GAF numbers.

The point is no matter what Aqua wish that can't be stopped even if all GAFers didn't share the data.

I think if she was annoyed by that then she took the right decision... I support that... I will miss her.
Right but the point was not to stop it from spreading as that's clearly a fool's errand. The point was to hopefully slow down how fast it spread, at least that's how I interpreted most of it.

Ah well NPD threads were fun.
 
May 20, 2014
4,498
0
305
Myrtle Beach
Right but the point was not to stop it from spreading as that's clearly a fool's errand. The point was to hopefully slow down how fast it spread, at least that's how I interpreted most of it.

Ah well NPD threads were fun.
That was the entire point if you look at her post on page 92 post, 4580. She states that is the main reason. People just got upset over it for no reason on the prediction thread.
 
Mar 13, 2013
6,454
1
430
I remember Aqua earlier in the thread saying she was feeling uncharacteristically generous for whatever reason, that's why this time she gave so many leaks.

And then all the shit happened :(
I think she honestly knew that all this was coming to an end soon anyway, which is both why she was being generous with this month's numbers and why she was trying to delay the end as much as possible with the hidden numbers. It seems like NPD's reaction to Gamecrate made her (and some of the other leakers as well) a lot more apprehensive about being as public with their leaks as they had previously been. If NPD were to actually decide it was going to crack down on GAF, there's not a thing any of us could do about it, and if they actually caught the leakers I'd imagine the punishment would be more severe than any one person could probably handle.
 
Nov 17, 2013
9,522
0
370
Damn all that has transpired just sucks. Forget the leaks, I just hope no ones livelihood is in serious risk.
Agreed, That's the real concern here. So many folks just pop in to get a quick fix without realizing the risks certain people are taking to provide them with information that is ultimately from their perspective insignificant. NPD Discussions are interesting and can be fun for the niche crowd here, but it's not worth someone losing their job.
 
May 31, 2013
23,628
0
0
Anybody knows why Vita boosted? Seems weird.

PS. I plan to buy one to remote play Destiny.
Lately there have been stock issues in the US and while I don't think it was ever completely OOS or anything it was even less available then normal until this month it would seem

Do we have any Vita numbers?
I observed the availability on nowinstock and it was always in Stock. On Amazon it was charting between the 50th and 150th position or so for the whole september. Considering the months with supply constraints I expected Vita to be 10k-20k for september
One could theorize that with Sony rolling out the massive PS4 Destiny bundle shipments to stores they were able to convince or strongarm retailers into accepting some Vita. Just a theory though
 
Mar 13, 2013
6,454
1
430
Anybody knows why Vita boosted? Seems weird.

PS. I plan to buy one to remote play Destiny.
It was in stock. Up until about late August/early September, even though there were only basically 3 places that still carried Vita stock (Amazon, Best Buy's website, and Gamestop), those three places would continually be out of stock for weeks at a time, and then sell the stock they got in a day or two. Last month was the first month I've seen since arguably Jan/Feb where the Vita actually stayed in stock for pretty much the entire month.
 
Aug 22, 2014
4,328
0
0
UK
So PS4 1 million ahead In the US? What do we know/can we guess when it comes to world wide numbers?
Given the rate of sales to reach 10m by June, and similar ramping up of sales worldwide as we saw in the September NPD results, I'd guess around 13-14m WW for PS4 by this point.

The XO is harder to make a stab at given the lack of hard numbers, but when you take into account the UK and NA must be making up almost all their sales I'd be amazed if they'd hit 7m yet.
 
So PS4 1 million ahead In the US? What do we know/can we guess when it comes to world wide numbers?
It is ahead everywhere except China where the PS4 hasn't launched yet.

Everytime an article pops up with EU numbers, Xbox One is significantly behind in each country.

I would imagine the closest country between the two would be the UK but that is mainly because Microsoft and deals have effectively taken £120 off of the launch price in less than a year. Sony haven't moved on price yet.

I am particularly interested in what stance Microsoft/investors etc will take if/when the Xbox One's sales trajectory falls behind that of the Xbox 360. Their only real saving grace early on this year was that they were outpacing the 360 and therefore considered it a success.
 
May 31, 2013
23,628
0
0
Given the rate of sales to reach 10m by June, and similar ramping up of sales worldwide as we saw in the September NPD results, I'd guess around 13-14m WW for PS4 by this point.

The XO is harder to make a stab at given the lack of hard numbers, but when you take into account the UK and NA must be making up almost all their sales I'd be amazed if they'd hit 7m yet.
I see no reason to expect PS4 to be nearly that high WW at this point and PS4 hit 10M as of August 10th, not June.

So as we have to burn time and posts until such a time as the attention is shifted from this thread, how about a terrible estimate for PS4 WW sales?

From my post here on US|WW ratios of PS4 sales, sales in 2014 of PS4 have wavered between as little as 30% of WW sales being in the US to as much as 38%.

While the most recent data suggests a 30% US|WW ratio of sales I would qualify that in that time period [from April to August] PS4 was introduced to 28 more markets and while small likely weighed down the rest of the world's share. I think ~34% or higher for the US's share is likely between August 11th and October 4th.

PS4 US LTD since August 10th ~= 681k

At 34% US|WW Ratio, WW sales of PS4 between August 11th and October 4th would be ~2003k, a little over 2M

At 38% US|WW Ratio, WW sales of PS4 between August 11th and October 4th would be ~1792k

So likely the PS4 either approached or surpassed 12M sold through WW as of the beginning of October
Or rather cumulative WW LTD for PS4 would likely be between 11.8M and 12M as of October 4th
 
Feb 24, 2014
14,512
0
370
Given the rate of sales to reach 10m by June, and similar ramping up of sales worldwide as we saw in the September NPD results, I'd guess around 13-14m WW for PS4 by this point.

The XO is harder to make a stab at given the lack of hard numbers, but when you take into account the UK and NA must be making up almost all their sales I'd be amazed if they'd hit 7m yet.
I highly doubt the One is near 6 million as of October 4. The Xbox One is most likely at 5.6-5.8 as of October 4. Will break 6 million this month, and then probably end the year at 8,5-9 million WW.

PS4 is at most 12 million WW right now.
 
Aug 22, 2014
4,328
0
0
UK
I see no reason to expect PS4 to be nearly that high WW at this point and PS4 hit 10M as of August 10th, not June.



Or rather cumulative WW LTD for PS4 would likely be between 11.8M and 12M as of October 4th
I highly doubt the One is near 6 million as of October 4. The Xbox One is most likely at 5.6-5.8 as of October 4. Will break 6 million this month, and then probably end the year at 8,5-9 million WW.

PS4 is at most 12 million WW right now.
Ah, my mistake, must have got confused with which event the 10m announcement was at, soz!

So yeah, maybe 12m-ish now then.

And given that, yeah, the XO most likely would be sub 6m.
 
Do the copies taken by people as a part of free game with XboxOne count towards as a sale or not?
Yes. Retailer bundles (console in box + additional games) count the additional game as an individual sale.

So a PS4 destiny bundle (with destiny in the PS4 box) wouldn't include the Destiny copy as a sale on NPD.

However

An Xbox One console + Destiny game added by a retailer would include the Xbox One and Destiny in the NPD figures.
 
May 28, 2013
2,014
6
390
The Land Of Abaya Babes
Yes. Retailer bundles (console in box + additional games) count the additional game as an individual sale.

So a PS4 destiny bundle (with destiny in the PS4 box) wouldn't include the Destiny copy as a sale on NPD.

However

An Xbox One console + Destiny game added by a retailer would include the Xbox One and Destiny in the NPD figures.
This explains why Destiny charted higher for the XBO in the software sales but if the Destiny bundle for PS4 get counted, then pretty much Destiny would've charted higher for PS4 but alas...
 
Aug 22, 2014
4,328
0
0
UK
What's the relationship between Xbone and PS4 sales that you adjust the Xbone guess as well?
Mostly just where I got confused with how early the big 10m milestone announcement was and remembering estimates for when that happened for what the XO would have been at, plus the WW sales have been hovering near 2:1 in PS4's favour for a while, so if I overestimated one I would thus have also overestimated the other.
 
Jun 12, 2013
21,443
0
440
This explains why Destiny charted higher for the XBO in the software sales but if the Destiny bundle for PS4 get counted, then pretty much Destiny would've charted higher for PS4 but alas...
It's still highly impressive for XB1 regardless, because both consoles have an established install base difference of 700k-ish before September, and still XB1 SKU manages to be highly competitive with PS4's SKU, even after taking into account the bundle sales.

It's a nod to XB1's audience, I guess. It's smaller, but still has a stronger leaning to FPSes in general.
 

benny_a

extra source of jiggaflops
Apr 25, 2009
17,350
0
0
It's still highly impressive for XB1 regardless, because both consoles have an established install base difference of 700k-ish before September, and still XB1 SKU manages to be highly competitive with PS4's SKU, even after taking into account the bundle sales.

It's a nod to XB1's audience, I guess. It's smaller, but still has a stronger leaning to FPSes in general.
Unfortunately we won't get a break down of COD:AW sales this time, because the last COD it was 51:49 in favor of Xbone after several months. (Launch month had a higher difference.)
 
Jun 12, 2013
21,443
0
440
Unfortunately we won't get a break down of COD:AW sales this time, because the last COD it was 51:49 in favor of Xbone after several months. (Launch month had a higher difference.)
I'm kinda expecting XB1 SKU to does better at launch, but by rough the same margins as we saw with Ghost at its later months ( instead of a higher difference ), and PS4 to overtake XB1 within 6 months, but only by a small margin.
 
Aug 22, 2014
4,328
0
0
UK
I'm kinda expecting XB1 SKU to does better at launch, but by rough the same margins as we saw with Ghost at its later months ( instead of a higher difference ), and PS4 to overtake XB1 within 6 months, but only by a small margin.
This.

Really, there's only so long the XO's audiences predilection for FPS's can compensate for the ever increasing gap in their instal base. By next years COD I'd be surprised if the PS4 doesn't come out on top from day one.
 

benny_a

extra source of jiggaflops
Apr 25, 2009
17,350
0
0
I'm kinda expecting XB1 SKU to does better at launch, but by rough the same margins as we saw with Ghost at its later months ( instead of a higher difference ), and PS4 to overtake XB1 within 6 months, but only by a small margin.
I expect the PS4 to be the first entry for COD:AW in the Top 10 Games list,.

To overcome a 700k+ lead and the lack of some sales from people just picking up a bundle instead of individual console + game would be very interesting and show that Xbox is even more strongly associated with FPS than I already think it is.
 
Jun 12, 2013
21,443
0
440
This.

Really, there's only so long the XO's audiences predilection for FPS's can compensate for the ever increasing gap in their instal base. By next years COD I'd be surprised if the PS4 doesn't come out on top from day one.
Yup, this is my go-to-prediction as well.

On the assumption that the gap continues to grow all the way till holiday next year, I'd say BLOPS3 will lean in favor of PS4 vs XB1 from launch till LTD... as well as any XB1 co-marketed game. Except maybe Titanfall 2.

With that being said, I predict XB1 will still rack a noticably higher attach rate for FPSes than PS4. PS4 will only win it out by sheer volume of install base.
 
May 31, 2013
23,628
0
0
It's interesting but with the bundle sales included, Destiny has almost the exact same attach rate on both consoles, the difference is basically negligible.

Maybe tomorrow when I'm less depressed I'll post ramblings about where I think the XB1 is WW
 
Mar 19, 2013
20,733
25
415
Brazil
Maybe I'm using the wrong terminology that's confusing or something, but I was looking at it more from a how many percent of the install base bought Destiny perspective.

PS4 in total, has more Destiny SKU, but because they have a million lead, so the % of PS4 owners in US who bought Destiny is lower than the % of XB1 owners who bought Destiny.
Using 2500k units for Destiny.

XB1: 875k / 3500k
PS4: 825k + 300k / 4500k

Do the maths... it is the exactly same.
 
Mar 13, 2013
6,454
1
430
Maybe I'm using the wrong terminology that's confusing or something, but I was looking at it more from a how many percent of the install base bought Destiny perspective.

PS4 in total, has more Destiny SKU, but because they have a million lead, so the % of PS4 owners in US who bought Destiny is lower than the % of XB1 owners who bought Destiny.
The other posters have it right, the difference between the two numbers is somewhere around 1-2 percent, About 1/4 of the owners of each console have bought Destiny.
 
Jun 12, 2013
21,443
0
440
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
0
0
Here you go

NPD Results for Every Month Going Forward

1. PS4, Lots But Not Enough to Ward Off Hindle
2. Xbone
3. Firmware updates
4. 3ds
5. Dead frogs
6. vita
XB1 should be number 1. Don't forget that word of mouth snowballing effect.

creamsugar lost his source.

Aquamarine took on a 3-month self-imposed ban because of various reasons, contributed by some members of GAF not being able to come to a level-headed consensus of how to talk about leaks.

Dark times ahead for those who want leaks.
Time to embrace ********. Such a stupid argument and now we have nothing.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.