NPD Sales Results for September 2014 [Up1: Smash/HW/MK8, Destiny stats, 3DS HW]

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Sep 2, 2010
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Gran Turismo has been almost irrevocably damaged by GT6 though.

Sure, it'll still be big but I think the days of it being a sales juggernaut are over.

Unless the next one looks photo-realistic and staggering visually. Which is entirely possible but knowing PD we won't see it until 2017.
PS4's release damaged GT7.
 
Feb 9, 2011
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So that was an electric month for the PS4 then. Shit seems unstoppable, and that's even before the big league exclusives have made it out yet. Imagine what Uncharted 4 is going to do for that thing.
Well, the PS4 has the better hardware, that means all the third party games are superior on the PS4, so if you don't care about the Xbox One exclusives there is no reason to pick the Xbox One over the PS4.
 
Jun 2, 2013
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So that was an electric month for the PS4 then. Shit seems unstoppable, and that's even before the big league exclusives have made it out yet. Imagine what Uncharted 4 is going to do for that thing.
What's scarier is that will be around the time the console likely drops in price, judging by BoM's with new GDDR chips and die shrinks...
 
Jul 31, 2007
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18M - 19M with little actual thought put into it. WW LTD of course
I was thinking closer to 15-16 million units WW a couple of months ago, but Sept really makes me think they are going to have an insane holiday season. If they've got the supply I could see a good 3.5 million being sold between November and December in NA alone. Though this is kind of dependent on how much Oct holds.
 
May 31, 2013
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Thanks for responding.
Sony has a marketing deal with GTAV correct?
If so, they should announce a bundle for NA before black Friday.
There appears to be some level of co-marketing with GTAV although advertising has yet to fully kick off for it so it's hard to tell the extent of it.

I imagine that Sony will likely have some bundles for the NA market this holiday but are holding off announcements to boost current sales of the destiny bundle as others have already suggested in this thread. Sony will position their bundles towards walk-in shoppers [fairweather fans] and try to prevent cannibalization of the natural sales baseline for PS4. At least that's my thoughts on it

I was thinking closer to 15-16 million units WW a couple of months ago, but Sept really makes me think they are going to have an insane holiday season. If they've got the supply I could see a good 3.5 million being sold between November and December in NA alone. Though this is kind of dependent on how much Oct holds.
Predicting the future is hard. I'm sure my predictions will likely be crap.

Anyways October will likely be down for PS4 I think. Maybe breach 13M by start of November WW if they're lucky. I have to look over historic holiday numbers again but 18M is probably a strong possibility
 
Jun 2, 2013
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I was thinking closer to 15-16 million units WW a couple of months ago, but Sept really makes me think they are going to have an insane holiday season. If they've got the supply I could see a good 3.5 million being sold between November and December in NA alone. Though this is kind of dependent on how much Oct holds.
Pretty sure Sony will sell out this holiday period. If they are still only manufacturing 1.2m a month and they've been selling about 1.2m a month they can't have stockpiled too many...I really expect an XB1 victory this holiday season due to no PS4 stock, unless prduction has been increased of course.
 

M.D

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Feb 12, 2010
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Good sales for Xbox One, and surprisingly high for PS4

I have a feeling Uncharted 4 is going to do huge numbers, a lot bigger than the previous installments in the series especially in the US

I think part of it is going to be due to the success of The Last of Us, but it seems the type of game that will really benefit from PS4 being the go-to console with the higher install base and lots of casuals
 
Oct 23, 2013
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Pretty sure Sony will sell out this holiday period. If they are still only manufacturing 1.2m a month and they've been selling about 1.2m a month they can't have stockpiled too many...I really expect an XB1 victory this holiday season due to no PS4 stock, unless prduction has been increased of course.
I don't think they've been selling anywhere near 1.2M per month WW through the summer months. NPD has been around 200K each month, right?

So they can and will have stockpiled for the holidays.
 
Mar 19, 2013
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Gran Turismo has been almost irrevocably damaged by GT6 though.

Sure, it'll still be big but I think the days of it being a sales juggernaut are over.

Unless the next one looks photo-realistic and staggering visually. Which is entirely possible but knowing PD we won't see it until 2017.
PS4 hype damaged GT6.

The franchise is fine and it will sell over 10 million again even if 80 meta.
 
Pretty sure Sony will sell out this holiday period. If they are still only manufacturing 1.2m a month and they've been selling about 1.2m a month they can't have stockpiled too many...I really expect an XB1 victory this holiday season due to no PS4 stock, unless prduction has been increased of course.
Given demand, they've probably managed to negotiate more units to be produced.

We know Microsoft have a stockpile to work through, Sony are heavily reliant on their supply line.
 
Mar 1, 2012
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Pretty sure Sony will sell out this holiday period. If they are still only manufacturing 1.2m a month and they've been selling about 1.2m a month they can't have stockpiled too many...I really expect an XB1 victory this holiday season due to no PS4 stock, unless prduction has been increased of course.
They manage to sold 10m around 10 months, I still cant wrap my head around the idea of 1 plus million per month.
Where did all the PS4 sold to?
 
Jun 2, 2013
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I don't think they've been selling anywhere near 1.2M per month WW through the summer months. NPD has been around 200K each month, right?

So they can and will have stockpiled for the holidays.
They announce 10million sold at the start of August, so they sold 5.8m in the first 6 months, with 1.2m production a month that's a stockpile of 1.4m, they probably just sold around 2m in September cutting the stockpile down by 0.8m to 0.6m. I don't think 0.6m is going to be enough of a stockpile...

Hopefully they will have upped production significantly, sales should be very strong through the holidays and continuing through past February which should be a huge month considering the releases now scheduled for Feb 2015.
 
Jul 18, 2014
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18M - 19M with little actual thought put into it. WW LTD of course
What was ps3's holiday quarter number holiday 2007? that should give us some kind of baseline.

On the topic of Aqua and Cream, it's a sad day for GAF but what's done is done. Pointing fingers and placing blame won't exactly bring them back. Hopefully she'll return after she comes out of isolation. My belief about the internet is, once it's on the internet, it belongs to the internet. there is just no way around it.
 
Sep 19, 2014
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1)Install base difference of close to a million in favor of PS4
2)Not all customers will pickup Destiny as a free game with an X1 purchase as its optional and its always online which is a negative on the game
3)Its more likely to have a customer purchsing copy of Destiny than an X1 for Destiny
4)Promotion lasted 1 week if I'm not mistaken
5)Two or one free game promotion has been on since release of X1 in tier 2.
6)Destiny affiliation with Sony and first on DLC.
7)Convinient download purchase option with on X1

All the above are disadvantages of Destiny physical disc selling more on X1. Now if we use the free game concept, does it mean everyone who already owns a PS4 didn't buy Destiny because the amount of X1's sold in the month and at Ppls homes is already smaller than PS4. Why did X1 sell more?
 
Jul 18, 2014
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1)Install base difference of close to a million in favor of PS4
2)Not all customers will pickup Destiny as a free game with an X1 purchase as its optional and its always online which is a negative on the game
3)Its more likely to have a customer purchsing copy of Destiny than an X1 for Destiny
4)Promotion lasted 1 week if I'm not mistaken
5)Two or one free game promotion has been on since release of X1 in tier 2.
6)Destiny affiliation with Sony and first on DLC.
7)Convinient download purchase option with on X1

All the above are disadvantages of Destiny physical disc selling more on X1. Now if we use the free game concept, does it mean everyone who already owns a PS4 didn't buy Destiny because the amount of X1's sold in the month and at Ppls homes is already smaller than PS4. Why did X1 sell more?
We don't know the split between retail copies and digital copies. But in Sony's press release, PS4 was the leading platform for Destiny worldwide. Microsoft also didn't boast about winning at retail which suggests that if you included digital sales, PS4 must have came out on top. But that last part is just a speculation on my part.
 
May 16, 2011
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Looking at the current vs last gen split with destiny, I wonder if they would consider going cross gen a mistake. Probably not, I just wonder what differences there would have been without ps360 limitations
 

jett

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Jun 6, 2004
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Well I guess NPD threads will now be more useless than ever. How can some of you be so fucking entitled to react the way you did to Aqua's idea? Just...the worst kind of of people.
 
Mar 26, 2013
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Using 2500k units for Destiny.

XB1: 875k / 3500k
PS4: 825k + 300k / 4500k

Do the maths... it is the exactly same.
Wait a sec, PS4 has the same attach rate as Xbone for an FPS game? That's somewhat impressive, xbox had always higher attach rate for shooter games, especially fps. I guess the marketing deals and the bundle sure worked.
 
Aug 15, 2010
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They announce 10million sold at the start of August, so they sold 5.8m in the first 6 months, with 1.2m production a month that's a stockpile of 1.4m, they probably just sold around 2m in September cutting the stockpile down by 0.8m to 0.6m. I don't think 0.6m is going to be enough of a stockpile...

Hopefully they will have upped production significantly, sales should be very strong through the holidays and continuing through past February which should be a huge month considering the releases now scheduled for Feb 2015.
I seriously doubt they've just been sitting back and producing the same 1.2m per month they were last year. They've had a full year to adjust production and estimate holiday season sales, so they'd have to be stupid not to.

That the PS4's looking to surpass 20 million this year is insane to me. In January I predicted it'd sell 15 million, which seemed like a huge number for just the first year at the time, and it's still probably going to be way too low.

I also predicted that the Xbone would sell 10 million but that was probably too optimistic.
 
Jan 11, 2014
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Given the rate of sales to reach 10m by June, and similar ramping up of sales worldwide as we saw in the September NPD results, I'd guess around 13-14m WW for PS4 by this point.

The XO is harder to make a stab at given the lack of hard numbers, but when you take into account the UK and NA must be making up almost all their sales I'd be amazed if they'd hit 7m yet.
If X1 only hit 3.5 in U.S, I don't feel they are hitting that in rest of the world.
 
Feb 3, 2007
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Unfortunate about Aqua.

I'm not sure people talking about Creamsugar were following the conversation properly.

The biggest blow to next months thread will be accuracy - we will get numbers somehow, even if its based on YoY calculations from previous estimated numbers, so the "OMG how bad is WiiU failing? / OMG is PS4 still kicking Xbone ass?" peanut gallery will get the ammo they need for their ongoing wars, but estimations based on estimations based on estimations adds compound margins of error that can end up being significantly off.
 
Jul 28, 2012
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EU will go crazy.

I was thinking closer to 15-16 million units WW a couple of months ago, but Sept really makes me think they are going to have an insane holiday season. If they've got the supply I could see a good 3.5 million being sold between November and December in NA alone. Though this is kind of dependent on how much Oct holds.
Woah woah slow down there.

3.5 million in NA alone is way too high even for a beast like PS4.

360 (Nov + Dec)
06: 1.6 million
07: 2.03 million
08: 2.275 million
09: 2.39 million

PS4 is outpacing the 360 notably in NA but 3.5 million seems a bit high for a second holiday.

I'm guessing 2.5 - 3 million at most.

It just occurred to me that PS4 actually has a good chance of having the highest year 1 sales of any console which iirc belongs to the Wii at 20.5 million.

If we say PS4 will be at 13-13.5 million by the end of October then it needs to sell over 7-7.5 million to beat it.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Jul 6, 2005
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I'm really only interested in seeing if Inbombniac escapes the curse of Inbombniac with a more favorable press opinion (still really bitter about the nonsense they tossed at Resistance 1 and 3) and bundles. I think the game is a total miss for the typical Xbox demo but we shall see.

1)Install base difference of close to a million in favor of PS4
2)Not all customers will pickup Destiny as a free game with an X1 purchase as its optional and its always online which is a negative on the game
3)Its more likely to have a customer purchsing copy of Destiny than an X1 for Destiny
4)Promotion lasted 1 week if I'm not mistaken
5)Two or one free game promotion has been on since release of X1 in tier 2.
6)Destiny affiliation with Sony and first on DLC.
7)Convinient download purchase option with on X1

All the above are disadvantages of Destiny physical disc selling more on X1. Now if we use the free game concept, does it mean everyone who already owns a PS4 didn't buy Destiny because the amount of X1's sold in the month and at Ppls homes is already smaller than PS4. Why did X1 sell more?
Why did Captain Planet hold up traffic in Midtown yesterday for 7 hours? WHY DID ARGENTINA SECEDE FROM MEXICO IN 1942???

I'M JUST ASKING QUESTIONS
 
Aug 15, 2010
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EU will go crazy.



Woah woah slow down there.

3.5 million in NA alone is way too high even for a beast like PS4.

360 (Nov + Dec)
06: 1.6 million
07: 2.03 million
08: 2.275 million
09: 2.39 million

PS4 is outpacing the 360 notably in NA but 3.5 million seems a bit high for a second holiday.

I'm guessing 2.5 - 3 million at most.

It just occurred to me that PS4 actually has a good chance of having the highest year 1 sales of any console which iirc belongs to the Wii at 20.5 million.

If we say PS4 will be at 13-13.5 million by the end of October then it needs to sell over 7-7.5 million to beat it.
Why'd you stop at 2009?

10: 3.23 million
11: 3.4 million
12: 2.66 million

3.5 million is probably a bit too high, I agree, but we'll see what happens. I don't think selling over 3 million is unattainable, though I think it's pretty safe to say it won't hit the Wii's 2009 record of 5.07 million.

Where'd you get the 20.5 million Wii sales in its first year?
 
Aug 5, 2011
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Sucks what I'm reading about Aqua and Creamsuger.

They shared info they didn't have to that was pertinent to the video game industry and of great interest.

It's a shame in particular that Aqua couldn't get consistent support from forum members regarding the info she shared and how to go about handling access to it. Surely someone providing such in demand info deserves better than that?
 

2thepoint

Junior Member
Aug 28, 2014
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Aqua, if you're reading this, please don't leave GAF.

Take some well needed time to yourself, but don't leave GAF for good.

NPD threads will be nothing without you and creamsugar.

You come up with you're own way to handle leaks.

The email tag system was great, and it is unfair the criticism you got from a certain entitled few.
 
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