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NPD Sales Results for September 2014 [Up1: Smash/HW/MK8, Destiny stats, 3DS HW]

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Clockblockers

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upcoming things of interest:

Microsoft Q1 report: 10/23 (why does MS's year run from July to June?)
Nintendo Q2 report: 10/29

(someone correct me if I'm wrong with this, also Sony's is coming around the same time but I don't know the date)

edit: right, only Nintendo still has the courage not to combine systems together to make the numbers look more impressive
or maybe because doing so wouldn't help anyway
Not sure about the rest of world but US companies, at least the one's I've worked at, run their Fiscal Years from July to June, I don't know the book answer but I'm sure an accountant can give an answer as to why
 

prwxv3

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I hope Aqua gets better.

The email idea was good too. Yes there would still be asshat GAF members using the data for their own site or a different forum. But it would have decreased the spread of the numbers across the Internet a bunch.
 

Kssio_Aug

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Where are people finding about Forza Horizon 2 numbers?
I can't believe it sold as bad as people are saying. It was like everyone with an XB1 were interested on it. Sad news if true... =/
 

Liabe Brave

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I don't see who else would do it if those two are gone.
Well actually, there are at least two other posters in every NPD thread who have access to the numbers, and occasionally leak some of them. They just leak a lot less than Aquamarine and creamsugar, so they tend not to be brought up or even noticed by the usual GAF conversation.

Not sure about the rest of world but US companies, at least the one's I've worked at, run their Fiscal Years from July to June, I don't know the book answer but I'm sure an accountant can give an answer as to why
Companies vary in how they approach this. Both my current employer and my last one are Fortune 500 companies, but they have different fiscal calendars (neither of which ends in June). I'm not really sure why this is.
 

Nightengale

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Where are people finding about Forza Horizon 2 numbers?
I can't believe it sold as bad as people are saying. It was like everyone with an XB1 were interested on it. Sad news if true... =/
It's somewhere in this thread, if I'm not wrong.

Anyway, the fact that it didn't chart automatically means it's sales are below 1X0k, (forgot what's the X supposed to be ), which is not exactly a flattering figure.
 

NateDrake

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Where are people finding about Forza Horizon 2 numbers?
I can't believe it sold as bad as people are saying. It was like everyone with an XB1 were interested on it. Sad news if true... =/
The X360 + XOne FH2 numbers totaled around 120k, according to posts in this thread.
 

Kssio_Aug

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It's somewhere in this thread, if I'm not wrong.

Anyway, the fact that it didn't chart automatically means it's sales are below 1X0k, (forgot what's the X supposed to be ), which is not exactly a flattering figure.
The X360 + XOne FH2 numbers totaled around 120k, according to posts in this thread.
Oh, ok, I see... but thats only physical copies right? If not, there's something wrong. Like someone else mentioned here at a leaderboard on the XB1 version there are already 460k players. So I guess summed up with X360 version there are quite more then 500k physical + digital. Except if I'm missing something.
 

orochi91

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Oh, ok, I see... but thats only physical copies right? If not, there's something wrong. Like someone else mentioned here at a leaderboard on the XB1 version there are already 460k players. So I guess summed up with X360 version there are quite more then 500k physical + digital. Except if I'm missing something.
That's probably WW total. In the US, FH2 totaled 120k across both Xbox consoles.

There won't be a FH3.
 

SwiftDeath

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Oh, ok, I see... but thats only physical copies right? If not, there's something wrong. Like someone else mentioned here at a leaderboard on the XB1 version there are already 460k players. So I guess summed up with X360 version there are quite more then 500k physical + digital. Except if I'm missing something.
You realize that these NPD threads are for the US market only right? I mean the XB1 isn't doing well really outside of the US but it does have some sales in the rest of the world. I'm sure FH2 has good digital sales but I'd be shocked if they were higher than 30% of retail sales tbh
 

hodayathink

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Well actually, there are at least two other posters in every NPD thread who have access to the numbers, and occasionally leak some of them. They just leak a lot less than Aquamarine and creamsugar, so they tend not to be brought up or even noticed by the usual GAF conversation.
Trust me, I know who they are, and one has already commented in this thread about this whole situation. I just feel that if the two most public leakers have decided to back away from the spotlight (for fear of possible NPD reprisal), then why would either of the other two (who are generally here every month for the start of the thread or close to it, and could leak if they wanted to) going to take their place?
 

Nightengale

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Oh, ok, I see... but thats only physical copies right? If not, there's something wrong. Like someone else mentioned here at a leaderboard on the XB1 version there are already 460k players. So I guess summed up with X360 version there are quite more then 500k physical + digital. Except if I'm missing something.
A few points to note:

- This is NPD aka US numbers only. And yes, digital not included.
- 460k =/= 460 copies sold. Multiple accounts per console could log the leaderboard.

But that's not really the point. It's well accepted at this point that XB1 is doing terribly practically anywhere not US/UK ( and some others, but generally those two matter the most), and if Horizon doesn't do well in the countries where XB1 is doing well, then there's no expectations of it for other regions. Especially Europe, which is the core audience for racing games.

Maybe we're wrong and FH2 ends up doing very well in the long-run (or MS has low sales expectations for FH2 to begin with ), but based off what little data we have, it doesn't paint a highly compelling picture of FH2's sales at this point.
 

Kssio_Aug

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That's probably WW total. In the US, FH2 totaled 120k across both Xbox consoles.

There won't be a FH3.
Why not? They told us already?

You realize that these NPD threads are for the US market only right? I mean the XB1 isn't doing well really outside of the US but it does have some sales in the rest of the world. I'm sure FH2 has good digital sales but I'd be shocked if they were higher than 30% of retail sales tbh
Ah ok! That makes sense then. Yeah, I just hope that it sold enough for MS predictions! But I expected it to sell really well, because everyone I knew with a XB1 were excited about it. lol

A few points to note:

- This is NPD aka US numbers only. And yes, digital not included.
- 460k =/= 460 copies sold. Multiple accounts per console could log the leaderboard.

But that's not really the point. It's well accepted at this point that XB1 is doing terribly practically anywhere not US/UK ( and some others, but generally those two matter the most), and if Horizon doesn't do well in the countries where XB1 is doing well, then there's no expectations of it for other regions. Especially Europe, which is the core audience for racing games.

Maybe we're wrong and FH2 ends up doing very well in the long-run (or MS has low sales expectations for FH2 to begin with ), but based off what little data we have, it doesn't paint a highly compelling picture of FH2's sales at this point.
Yeah, I get your point. Well, its sad that this game probably did not sell as much as I thought. I dont know the Forza history when it comes to sales though, hopefully it is going according expectations for Microsoft.
 

Kssio_Aug

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That's probably WW total. In the US, FH2 totaled 120k across both Xbox consoles.

There won't be a FH3.
Because those numbers aren't nearly enough to break even, let alone turn a profit. I suspect Driveclub will suffer a similar fate.
I dont know, saying it wont exist FH3 seems to me a very harsh assumption to make right now, specially with such confidence. If thats here is true, then I wouldnt be that sure:
This will be my last post about this because I dont want to be a cheerleader.

Its doing much better than FH1

around this point 2 years ago the leader boards were around 200,000 if memory serves me right

we couldn't even fill up the 100 member GAF club

as of yesterday there are over 460,000 people on the leader board a number that has increased by 100,000 every week.

I like many others got the digital version, so its going to be hard to track how its actually doing.
Not saying you're wrong when stating that FH2 is probably selling worse then expected, but saying there wont be a FH3 just because of those revelead retail numbers, doesnt sound to me like a totally safe assumption yet.
I hope I'm right about it.
 

Conduit

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The XB1 is getting the White console bundle with Sunset overdrive this month. It will likely push some sales but probably not enough to outsell PS4 for the month. There's also Forza Horizon 2 which by all accounts is not selling much at all so far despite critical and consumer acclaim (I'm guessing XB1 will be ~ 325k). It's also been stated by various retail insiders that the Destiny PS4 bundle is still selling well this month And there's the DriveClub release (as disastrous as it has been it is apparently selling higher than initial projections). PS4 is not selling as well as September but it's still selling well so the PS4 numbers should still be pretty respectable (I'm guessing PS4 ~390k). But only time will tell for sure.
Don't forget NBA2K15, game advertised by Sony.
 
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October is actually kind of meh this year because of all the delays. Evolve, Battlefield: Hardline, The Order: 1886, Dragon Age: Inquisition (I think this used to be October) and probably a few more that I'm missing.
 

stryke

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October is actually kind of meh this year because of all the delays. Evolve, Battlefield: Hardline, The Order: 1886, Dragon Age: Inquisition (I think this used to be October) and probably a few more that I'm missing.
Was Arkham Knight meant to be October? I can't remember, but man that game got delayed big time.
 
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This week originally had Battlefield and Evolve releasing on Tuesday but both got delayed to Februrary. Now this has to be one of the weakest fall release weeks in a long time.
 

Nightengale

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I'm not aware of any co-promotion with NBA2K this year.
Sony has different tiers in their co-promotion/marketing, as usual. :p

Destiny, Watch_Dogs, and presumably Arkham Knight gets class-1 co-marketing.

Shadow of Mordor and NBA2K gets well... a lower tier. -_-
 

Psycho_Mantis

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120k for FH2 is definitely a disappointment. Bearing in mind this is XB1's biggest market. Although iirc Forza was never a big seller, Forza 4 had a low debut on NPD as well.
 

John Harker

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I think a lot of you guys just make too much of a game out of everything. Don't spoil nice things for yourselves, I suppose.

Also ya'll use the word "leak" waaaay too much haha
 

wapplew

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Because those numbers aren't nearly enough to break even, let alone turn a profit. I suspect Driveclub will suffer a similar fate.
I think the game gonna be fine. It's cleaver way to recycle assets and engine, not that high budget.
 

Liabe Brave

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Trust me, I know who they are, and one has already commented in this thread about this whole situation. I just feel that if the two most public leakers have decided to back away from the spotlight (for fear of possible NPD reprisal), then why would either of the other two (who are generally here every month for the start of the thread or close to it, and could leak if they wanted to) going to take their place?
Oh, they aren't. It seems pretty clear they like to retain a lower profile. My point was that there will still be data to talk about in NPD threads, it'll just dribble out more slowly and be more indirect. (From not just GAF members, but other past sources like Verge, Sherr tweets, etc.) Like the release-day hints we get for Japan, which GAF discussion keys into before hard tracker data is published.
 

T-0800

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I think a few numbers, mostly hardware, should be leaked 2 months after they come out officially. I doubt the NPD group would care by then as long as it was pretty much just hardware. Maybe a little software.
 

EGM1966

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Because those numbers aren't nearly enough to break even, let alone turn a profit. I suspect Driveclub will suffer a similar fate.
DriveClub has the advantage of being on PS4. That type of game sells best in Europe and of course PS4 is biggest current gen install base in Europe. Even with the server issues it should sell fine (unless they really screw up fixing it).

The main disadvantage for FH2 obviously is that it isn't on the PS4 and its current gen install base in Europe isn't great for that genre. However FH2 is on 360 as well so I expect combined sales will be okay in the end (although I can't see it selling more that ok'ish in current market) but I'd imagine it's current gen sales won't be terrific.
 

GHG

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Forza 5 took a while to sell as much as it has today.

I suspect the story with FH2 will be similar as it will take a while to accumulate sales over the next year.
 

Nightengale

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I did say a couple months back neither were tracking that impressively
Has there been any racing game in the past few years not named Mario Kart, Forza Motorsports and Gran Turismo that have tracked impressively?

It really feels like aside from the core few, most racing games these days just come out whimpering out of the gate mostly. And Horizon is a tier higher than said games, with its better critical reception and far stronger marketing push than games like F1, etc.
 

CosmicQueso

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I also think that sales threads are a lot less interesting now than they were last year, because as far as I'm concerned the trajectories of console hardware for this generation are pretty well set at this point. It'd take something unprecedented to knock them off their current courses. The software stuff is always interesting, but when we were in the middle of finding out who was going to take the reins of the generation or just how badly the WiiU might flop, that was when things were properly intense. Anyway, thanks to everyone who posts and makes these threads fun.
Gotta agree with this, maybe add a couple more points...

As Griss mentions, the demand curves for the new consoles are set. Even with price changes, promotion, etc, nothing is going to really change significantly in a short time. The PS3 stumbled out of the gates, for example, and then took years to slowly recover and then excel by the end of the Gen.

These threads tend to focus on single data points and single month on month changes, or sometimes changes vs the prior year month. At the beginning of the Gen, these things matter more than they will now through the end of the Gen.

Aside from that, the earnings reports from all of the companies clearly state hardware sold, units, etc. Sometimes at title level, sometimes not, but that data does become available.

NPD is also not a good proxy for overall industry or company health, and its becoming less and less reliable over time.

The US, depending on who you ask,comprises around 40-45% of the global market. Retail sales, which NPD tracks, now accounts for between 70-90% of total software sales, depending on platform and franchise.

And this is to say nothing about the PC, which is by far the biggest growth platform globally at the moment, and is basically nonexistent in the NPD data at this point.

So using this information even for console warz idiocy is misleading.

The industry spends much less time than you might think diving into this information. Its decreasing relevance with the digital revolution being the primary cause. Every pub also gets much more detailed information on sales of its titles from retail, which makes waiting a month for this data to come out unnecessary.

What it is helpful for is to get an idea of how other companies are doing at retail, maybe identify some broader trends. Oh, and make a retail share chart once a quarter or year. That's about it.

Perhaps it's better that cream and aqua have stopped. So many times I've read doooooomed posts and shake my head. Overall SW and Acc spend on the consoles has been growing every single year, yet retail has been in decline because of smaller release slates and consumers moving to digital. Games that are seen as abject failures because of NPD data may not be failures at all once digital distribution, dlc and global sales are included. (Vita not saved)

In any case, I thought for sure disseminating that info would catch up to those posters. But I sure didn't think other users would be the catalyst for them to stop. Oh well, probably for the best.

Finally, all that said, the quality of industry discussion here is better than anywhere else online, and right here is where the smartest, most knowledgeable and savvy people are. There are more than a couple of people here who could be among the best analysts the industry would have, and others that probably already are.

If the ceasing of the leaks ensures that the good discussion can continue, and maybe improve, that's probably for the best too.
 

allan-bh

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If the ceasing of the leaks ensures that the good discussion can continue, and maybe improve, that's probably for the best too.
Discussion without knowing hardware sales? There's no improvement in that.

People will discuss without know the basics.


Microsoft combined 360 and XB1 shipments last quarterly report. I highly doubt they will break them out this upcoming report. Nintendo should be interesting though.
They did because of poor Xbox One shipment, but in the last quarter they launched in 25 countries and shipped units without Kinect.
I think Xbox One number will be very decent, and there's a chance of MS reveal the number.
 

theprodigy

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They did because of poor Xbox One shipment, but in the last quarter they launched in 25 countries and shipped units without Kinect.
I think Xbox One number will be very decent, and there's a chance of MS reveal the number.
but if they split it up again after just one quarter it would look REALLY obvious

edit: where the hell is the Microsoft Q3 thread on here anyway?

oh of course it wasn't 1st Course or Parmenides that made the thread, no wonder I couldn't find it
 

allan-bh

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but if they split it up again after just one quarter it would look REALLY obvious, no?
Already is really obvious.

In Jan-Mar quarter they gave a combined number and then said how much of that was for Xbox One. I'm hoping for the same thing now, if Xbox One shipment was not weak.
 

anexanhume

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Well, no numbers for the three most interesting months of the year. I'm especially most interested in Halo MCC. Would really like to know how the numbers compare there.
 
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