NPD Sales Results for September 2014 [Up1: Smash/HW/MK8, Destiny stats, 3DS HW]

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Makareu

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Jul 17, 2014
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I understand the need for secrecy in order to not give leakers too much exposure. But restricting the thread access to members only would be more efficient i guess ?
Because by publicly saying we have the numbers but you cant see them , I feel it could almost backfire in term of attention.
 

madmackem

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Jun 15, 2011
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wow so pachter want only wrong he was double the sales amount of wrong. Id start and keep my thoughts to myself if i was that wrong.
 

spwolf

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Feb 15, 2007
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Sorry, but you can't speak for all the XBONE fans in Europe. XBONE is still huge, it's still a brand that people know. When the day comes where people don't even know that Microsoft makes XBONE, it's time to pull the plug. And that's never going to happen.
we are stalking about sales statistics, not emotions... and sales suck.
 

kadotsu

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Dec 5, 2008
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How much work would it be to create an extra ModBot function to give some leakers a way to post numbers anonymously? I know there is already a system for key giveaways.
 

RexNovis

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Sep 8, 2013
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Yup, and I don't know if it'd be possible but maybe make posting numbers openly bannable? Just keep all (official) number discussion in email tags..... might too extreme though.
I'm all for it. I think it would go a long way into making our insider feel more at liberty to post numbers since the chances of them being tied back to them or seeing reposts across the web are basically eliminated. Someone talk to the mods about this and see if we can't get this approved.

I'm going back and changing every post I made in this thread that contained leaks...to have email tags.
Thus the email tag revolution began. There was much rejoicing.

:D
 

SwiftDeath

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May 31, 2013
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How much work would it be to create an extra ModBot function to give some leakers a way to post numbers anonymously? I know there is already a system for key giveaways.
That puts some culpability on the forum and its staff for the leaks though. Having the leakers more or less moderate their own actions and how best to leak separates their leaks from the forum
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
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Ok, reading other posts, it seems Destiny sold 3 millions, bundles included.

That's an amazing, outstanding first month, especially for a new IP...but don't other news suggest it'll be also frontloaded, actually?

I'm referring to what The Shogun posted a few weeks ago. He's been certified by Holy Banhammerness bishoptl, so he's reliable.
He said that Destiny sold 1 million in NA in the first 24 hours only at GameStop.

Here's the post I'm referring to

Its way over that. GameStop alone in NA sold over 1 million copies of Destiny in less than 24 hours
Now, since NA should be USA + Canada, and given how (in the past) Canada = 10% of NA sales, it should be about 900,000 in USA in the first 24 hours at just one retailer. This can tell us two things

1) GameStop had a quite bigger share of overall sales compared to the overall Retail Marketshare

*Percentages are based on retailer networks

So when I say "Wal-Mart" I mean:

1) All sales from the 4,311 Wal-Mart stores in the USA
2) All sales from walmart.com
3) All sales from the 621 Sam's Club stores in the USA
4) All sales from samsclub.com



NPD USA Retailer Marketshare, beginning of the 6th gen (approx. 2001):

1) Wal-Mart - 20%
2) Toys R Us - 14%
3) Best Buy - 11%
4) Babbage's / GameStop - 11%
5) Electronic Boutique - 10%
6) Target - 7%
----Top 6 comprise 73% of the USA market

NPD USA Retailer Marketshare, beginning of the 7th gen (approx. 2007):

1) GameStop - 25%
2) Wal-Mart - 24%
3) Best Buy - 14%
4) Target - 14%
5) Toys R Us - 4%
6) Circuit City - 3%
----Top 6 comprise 84% of the USA market

NPD USA Retailer Marketshare, beginning of the 8th gen (approx. 2013):

1) GameStop - 30%
2) Wal-Mart - 25%
3) Target - 15%
4) Best Buy - 12%
5) Amazon - 6%
6) Toys R Us - 1%
----Top 6 comprise 89% of the USA market
Since day 1 already is 30% of overall sales

2) While GameStop had a bigger share than usual, it still doesn't represent all Destiny's Day 1 sales. This means that Day 1, in USA, was surely much more than 1 million, and I suppose first 5 day sales were also higher than 2 millions, probably quite a bit higher (2.2 / 2.3 millions?) This means that the game sold less than 1 million (probably quite a bit less than 1 million) the following 3 weeks tracked in September NPD.

Those seem to be signs of the game being quite frontloaded overall, but it's all hypotetical, so maybe next month will show Destiny showing signs of legs.
 

Dragonborn

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Sep 11, 2011
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Ok, reading other posts, it seems Destiny sold 3 millions, bundles included.

That's an amazing, outstanding first month, especially for a new IP...but don't other news suggest it'll be also frontloaded, actually?

I'm referring to what The Shogun posted a few weeks ago. He's been certified by Holy Banhammerness bishoptl, so he's reliable.
He said that Destiny sold 1 million in NA in the first 24 hours only at GameStop.

Here's the post I'm referring to



Now, since NA should be USA + Canada, and given how (in the past) Canada = 10% of NA sales, it should be about 900,000 in USA in the first 24 hours at just one retailer. This can tell us two things

1) GameStop had a quite bigger share of overall sales compared to the overall Retail Marketshare



Since day 1 already is 30% of overall sales

2) While GameStop had a bigger share than usual, it still doesn't represent all Destiny's Day 1 sales. This means that Day 1, in USA, was surely much more than 1 million, and I suppose first 5 day sales were also higher than 2 millions, probably quite a bit higher (2.2 / 2.3 millions?) This means that the game sold less than 1 million (probably quite a bit less than 1 million) the following 3 weeks tracked in September NPD.

Those seem to be signs of the game being quite frontloaded overall, but it's all hypotetical, so maybe next month will show Destiny showing signs of legs.
AAA titles are normally incredibly front loaded, so that isn't too hard to believe. I do feel the middling reviewa are going to harm it's long term prospects though. As in, it's legs might not be the greatest
 

SwiftDeath

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May 31, 2013
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@MPL - Madden Amazon trends 2.0

I kid I kid. You could certainly be right as Destiny did not review too hotly and Word of Mouth™ was probably not the best
 

le.phat

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Dec 26, 2006
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This email stuff is fun!

Let me give it another try, with some super-precise, ultra-secret, 100% confirmed numbers.


Numbers are in the email tags, quote to see, no chartz lurkers allowed




Wii U sold:





Madden NFL 15 sold:




GTA V sold:














The troll possiblities are endless
 

EGM1966

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Aug 5, 2011
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I don't visit chartz, but do they make it clear their numbers are only estimates?
I swung by to see why it was banned/etc. They do but not exactly called out loud an clear - at that time it was tucked away behind a link.

Basically they take a very small sample set and try and extrapolate from there using actual data (such as NDP, ChartTrack, etc) as a guide to adjust their "models" towards actual known sales.

As someone with extensive experience in demand forecasting I'd say they just don't have enough data or regular info to make their attempts reliable and due to all the frigging about with data involved in adjusting their numbers every time there's an NPD update the actual historic numbers are probably way out of kilter if you were to look at them closely.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Sep 9, 2006
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Shouldn't we be more shocked at the 3DS dropping 40% YoY, especially during a month when Smash released?
Smash was just 2 days though and the system is entering its 4th year on the market with a revision upcoming.
 

illmatic22

Member
Aug 19, 2011
8,852
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This email stuff is fun!

Let me give it another try, with some super-precise, ultra-secret, 100% confirmed numbers.


Numbers are in the email tags, quote to see, no chartz lurkers allowed




Wii U sold:





Madden NFL 15 sold:




GTA V sold:














Wow Madden only sold 15k. The NFL is done.
 

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
Apr 27, 2006
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You better pray it will be enough later, a monster Sony means stagnation and complacency.
Unlike Microsoft's late-gen outing last generation?

Whatever I'd describe Sony's efforts as stagnation has never been part of their repetoire. Far reaching, over-ambitious, living in a lucid dream, 4D, etc. If Sony ever succumbs to madness we'd see a console with so many bells and whistles that only if Kojima himself had led the development we'd see it matched. That however is a console that would cause the market to mass exodus to a future of Valve and Steam.
 

mrklaw

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Jun 10, 2004
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Sorry if I'm debbie downer,mbut I can't see email tags working. I relies too much on people not repositn those numbers and that will be almost impossible, as they'll want to use the for comparison etc.
 

BrunoM

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Apr 5, 2013
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They overshot Destiny by at least 26%, over shot Mordor by at least 31% and overshot Horizon 2 by 103%.
To be all honest haven't gone to that site in years normally for random news from all over the net use n4g but my main place it's been here sense 2004 ...

I can even see them overshooting Destiny by the 20% with the hype and being in 4 systems
But the 103% for FH2 is to much
Do they normally fuck up that badly and I do understand they just do "estimates" but around the Internet especially last gen people used them like numbers they would put their lives on
 

chico

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Apr 17, 2007
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comparing that Sony PR to that from MS... wow, its like a white flag. please stop shooting Sony, we cant take it anymore.
 
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