NPD Sales Results for September 2014 [Up1: Smash/HW/MK8, Destiny stats, 3DS HW]

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Jul 17, 2014
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I understand the need for secrecy in order to not give leakers too much exposure. But restricting the thread access to members only would be more efficient i guess ?
Because by publicly saying we have the numbers but you cant see them , I feel it could almost backfire in term of attention.
 
Feb 15, 2007
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Sorry, but you can't speak for all the XBONE fans in Europe. XBONE is still huge, it's still a brand that people know. When the day comes where people don't even know that Microsoft makes XBONE, it's time to pull the plug. And that's never going to happen.
we are stalking about sales statistics, not emotions... and sales suck.
 
Sep 8, 2013
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Yup, and I don't know if it'd be possible but maybe make posting numbers openly bannable? Just keep all (official) number discussion in email tags..... might too extreme though.
I'm all for it. I think it would go a long way into making our insider feel more at liberty to post numbers since the chances of them being tied back to them or seeing reposts across the web are basically eliminated. Someone talk to the mods about this and see if we can't get this approved.

I'm going back and changing every post I made in this thread that contained leaks...to have email tags.
Thus the email tag revolution began. There was much rejoicing.

:D
 
May 31, 2013
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How much work would it be to create an extra ModBot function to give some leakers a way to post numbers anonymously? I know there is already a system for key giveaways.
That puts some culpability on the forum and its staff for the leaks though. Having the leakers more or less moderate their own actions and how best to leak separates their leaks from the forum
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
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Ok, reading other posts, it seems Destiny sold 3 millions, bundles included.

That's an amazing, outstanding first month, especially for a new IP...but don't other news suggest it'll be also frontloaded, actually?

I'm referring to what The Shogun posted a few weeks ago. He's been certified by Holy Banhammerness bishoptl, so he's reliable.
He said that Destiny sold 1 million in NA in the first 24 hours only at GameStop.

Here's the post I'm referring to

Its way over that. GameStop alone in NA sold over 1 million copies of Destiny in less than 24 hours
Now, since NA should be USA + Canada, and given how (in the past) Canada = 10% of NA sales, it should be about 900,000 in USA in the first 24 hours at just one retailer. This can tell us two things

1) GameStop had a quite bigger share of overall sales compared to the overall Retail Marketshare

*Percentages are based on retailer networks

So when I say "Wal-Mart" I mean:

1) All sales from the 4,311 Wal-Mart stores in the USA
2) All sales from walmart.com
3) All sales from the 621 Sam's Club stores in the USA
4) All sales from samsclub.com



NPD USA Retailer Marketshare, beginning of the 6th gen (approx. 2001):

1) Wal-Mart - 20%
2) Toys R Us - 14%
3) Best Buy - 11%
4) Babbage's / GameStop - 11%
5) Electronic Boutique - 10%
6) Target - 7%
----Top 6 comprise 73% of the USA market

NPD USA Retailer Marketshare, beginning of the 7th gen (approx. 2007):

1) GameStop - 25%
2) Wal-Mart - 24%
3) Best Buy - 14%
4) Target - 14%
5) Toys R Us - 4%
6) Circuit City - 3%
----Top 6 comprise 84% of the USA market

NPD USA Retailer Marketshare, beginning of the 8th gen (approx. 2013):

1) GameStop - 30%
2) Wal-Mart - 25%
3) Target - 15%
4) Best Buy - 12%
5) Amazon - 6%
6) Toys R Us - 1%
----Top 6 comprise 89% of the USA market
Since day 1 already is 30% of overall sales

2) While GameStop had a bigger share than usual, it still doesn't represent all Destiny's Day 1 sales. This means that Day 1, in USA, was surely much more than 1 million, and I suppose first 5 day sales were also higher than 2 millions, probably quite a bit higher (2.2 / 2.3 millions?) This means that the game sold less than 1 million (probably quite a bit less than 1 million) the following 3 weeks tracked in September NPD.

Those seem to be signs of the game being quite frontloaded overall, but it's all hypotetical, so maybe next month will show Destiny showing signs of legs.
 
Sep 11, 2011
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Ok, reading other posts, it seems Destiny sold 3 millions, bundles included.

That's an amazing, outstanding first month, especially for a new IP...but don't other news suggest it'll be also frontloaded, actually?

I'm referring to what The Shogun posted a few weeks ago. He's been certified by Holy Banhammerness bishoptl, so he's reliable.
He said that Destiny sold 1 million in NA in the first 24 hours only at GameStop.

Here's the post I'm referring to



Now, since NA should be USA + Canada, and given how (in the past) Canada = 10% of NA sales, it should be about 900,000 in USA in the first 24 hours at just one retailer. This can tell us two things

1) GameStop had a quite bigger share of overall sales compared to the overall Retail Marketshare



Since day 1 already is 30% of overall sales

2) While GameStop had a bigger share than usual, it still doesn't represent all Destiny's Day 1 sales. This means that Day 1, in USA, was surely much more than 1 million, and I suppose first 5 day sales were also higher than 2 millions, probably quite a bit higher (2.2 / 2.3 millions?) This means that the game sold less than 1 million (probably quite a bit less than 1 million) the following 3 weeks tracked in September NPD.

Those seem to be signs of the game being quite frontloaded overall, but it's all hypotetical, so maybe next month will show Destiny showing signs of legs.
AAA titles are normally incredibly front loaded, so that isn't too hard to believe. I do feel the middling reviewa are going to harm it's long term prospects though. As in, it's legs might not be the greatest
 
Aug 5, 2011
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I don't visit chartz, but do they make it clear their numbers are only estimates?
I swung by to see why it was banned/etc. They do but not exactly called out loud an clear - at that time it was tucked away behind a link.

Basically they take a very small sample set and try and extrapolate from there using actual data (such as NDP, ChartTrack, etc) as a guide to adjust their "models" towards actual known sales.

As someone with extensive experience in demand forecasting I'd say they just don't have enough data or regular info to make their attempts reliable and due to all the frigging about with data involved in adjusting their numbers every time there's an NPD update the actual historic numbers are probably way out of kilter if you were to look at them closely.
 

kinoki

Illness is the doctor to whom we pay most heed; to kindness, to knowledge, we make promise only; pain we obey.
Apr 27, 2006
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You better pray it will be enough later, a monster Sony means stagnation and complacency.
Unlike Microsoft's late-gen outing last generation?

Whatever I'd describe Sony's efforts as stagnation has never been part of their repetoire. Far reaching, over-ambitious, living in a lucid dream, 4D, etc. If Sony ever succumbs to madness we'd see a console with so many bells and whistles that only if Kojima himself had led the development we'd see it matched. That however is a console that would cause the market to mass exodus to a future of Valve and Steam.
 
Apr 5, 2013
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They overshot Destiny by at least 26%, over shot Mordor by at least 31% and overshot Horizon 2 by 103%.
To be all honest haven't gone to that site in years normally for random news from all over the net use n4g but my main place it's been here sense 2004 ...

I can even see them overshooting Destiny by the 20% with the hype and being in 4 systems
But the 103% for FH2 is to much
Do they normally fuck up that badly and I do understand they just do "estimates" but around the Internet especially last gen people used them like numbers they would put their lives on
 
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