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NPD Sales Results for September 2015 [Up2: Nintendo Numbers]

allan-bh

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May 16, 2006
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Disappointing sales for MGS V. Even if digital sales is something like 20%, still is lower than I was expecting.
 

Obliterator

Member
Apr 21, 2015
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The playoffs always are.

Yes indeed. Now that the boring pre season and months of PS4 minor "regular season" victories are over we can deal with the "real stakes."

We all know 9 months of the year don't matter and never bet against Xbox in the post season
 

Larogue

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Oct 24, 2005
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I think it will be quite hard for Microsoft to win October this year. Forza didn't generate enough hype, Halo fans still bittersweet from the MCC experience. So maybe a tie or a slight edge.

However, November gonna be an easy one for them.
 

Kyoufu

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Jul 26, 2007
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I think it will be quite hard for Microsoft to win October this year. Forza didn't generate enough hype, Halo fans still bittersweet from the MCC experience. So maybe a tie or a slight edge.

However, November gonna be an easy one for them.
What happens in November that makes it an easy win for them and not October when Halo 5, their biggest exclusive is released?

I'm failing to understand your logic here, so please explain.
 

sörine

Banned
Sep 1, 2013
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You're missing my point. Forget the exact figures for a moment, the original argument was that software sales in RotW can be quite substantial, possibly as high as one of the big 3, selling 300k or 600k in RotW doesn't change that argument one bit, the only thing that changes this argument is if Blooodborne somehow sold nearly as well digitally as it did on retail, which is unprecedented.
It doesn't though because the scattered retail figures we do get aren't even complete or regionally comprehensive for retail itself. So ROW could very well go from "equals USA" to "less than half of USA" which isn't the same thing at all. And if digital nearly matched accounted retail like you joke, then ROW would be like -600k (lol).
 

Deku Tree

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Jun 13, 2004
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So Destiny continues to sell better on Xbox at retail not including bundles, but September was the best month in the history of PSN store so Destiny TTK probably sold massively on PS digital.


Is that about right?
 

Javin98

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Nov 30, 2014
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I think it will be quite hard for Microsoft to win October this year. Forza didn't generate enough hype, Halo fans still bittersweet from the MCC experience. So maybe a tie or a slight edge.

However, November gonna be an easy one for them.
Wait, what? If anything, it will be very hard for Microsoft to win November. Sony has bundles for two of the biggest games in November, with one bundle priced at $349 with Battlefront included. Are you talking about last November by any chance?
 

mejin

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Oct 18, 2012
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I'm not underestimating that. I think it'll be a pretty massive for the PS4 too. But I suppose it's hard to tell with the limited data we have (which is really only just Amazon and select retail insiders).



If I had to bet on something, it would be Halo 5. I wouldn't rule out Star Wars simply because of Force Awakens hype (that damn trailer was so good) but I think the Xbox brand in the NA at this point is largely Halo driven.
Spencer is doing a relatively good job on Xbox image but I still don't feel Xbox brand as strong as last gen. I just want to point it out this. Forza is an example since it was one of the strongest ips Microsft had on X360.
 

Sho_Nuff82

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Jan 2, 2007
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I think Halo 5 releases too late in the month to overcome PS4's price drop. Plus a TON of Halo fans, especially the type who consider the series a system-seller, already took the plunge last year with the price drops + MCC + the Halo 5 Beta.
Only the MCC sold like shit compared to mainline Halo, indicating that not many hardcore fans bought a One just to play it.
 

KidJr

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Jul 25, 2014
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I remember there were people who swore blind that MS would never let Sony take the lead in US.
 

Curufinwe

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May 20, 2009
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So Destiny continues to sell better on Xbox at retail not including bundles, but September was the best month in the history of PSN store so Destiny TTK probably sold massively on PS digital.


Is that about right?
I believe me actually got the Destiny split this month and it was 40% PS4, 42% X1.
 

Larogue

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Oct 24, 2005
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What happens in November that makes it an easy win for them and not October when Halo 5, their biggest exclusive is released?

I'm failing to understand your logic here, so please explain.
Halo 5 gonna be released by 27 of October, so it kinda has its market effect carried into November.

So I think they have next month secured with the combination of Halo 5 being out almost before November, the release of Rise of The Tomb Raider. Plus whatever aggressive holiday price reduction/deals they have in store for this year.
 

Kyoufu

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Halo 5 gonna be released by 27 of October, so it kinda has its market effect carried into November.

So I think they have next month secured with the combination of Halo 5 being out almost before November, the release of Rise of The Tomb Raider. Plus whatever aggressive holiday price reduction/deals they have in store for this year.
I don't think Tomb Raider is going to do anything for anyone. It's out on the same day as Fallout 4, which Microsoft is also marketing. Total failure on their part. I see RotTR being completely buried.
 

Obliterator

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Apr 21, 2015
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I don't think Tomb Raider is going to do anything for anyone. It's out on the same day as Fallout 4, which Microsoft is also marketing. Total failure on their part. I see RotTR being completely buried.
Yeah TR is probably gonna be a certified bomba
 

allan-bh

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May 16, 2006
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So Destiny continues to sell better on Xbox at retail not including bundles, but September was the best month in the history of PSN store so Destiny TTK probably sold massively on PS digital.


Is that about right?
Destiny TTK sold massively on PS Network and Xbox Live because it's an expansion.
 

mckmas8808

Ah. Peace and quiet. #ADayWithoutAWoman
May 24, 2005
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Didn't say it's not going to make them money.

You should check out the business concept known as "opportunity cost"

Then it will make sense to you.
I still disagree. They might have taken the opportunity cost route, but there's no making me believe that it was the only way it had to be.

They couldn't offload the game to another developer and assume less risk? Either way I'm half way through the story of MGS5 and honestly I LOVE IT, but it also should be the last game.

And I'm glad Kojima will finally get to do something else.
 

Javin98

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Nov 30, 2014
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Halo 5 gonna be released by 27 of October, so it kinda has its market effect carried into November.

So I think they have next month secured with the combination of Halo 5 being out almost before November, the release of Rise of The Tomb Raider. Plus whatever aggressive holiday price reduction/deals they have in store for this year.
LOL, RotTR is gonna bomb, mainly because Microsoft seems to have abandoned it with little marketing. Releasing on the same day as Fallout 4 is also a horrible decision. In short, RotTR will very likely do pretty badly in the US and since it is exclusive to XBox this holiday season, everywhere else too. Fallout 4 and its bundles, on the other hand, could potentially do very well. Even then, I think Sony has a solid chance of winning the holidays.
 

gatti-man

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Aug 30, 2010
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So Destiny continues to sell better on Xbox at retail not including bundles, but September was the best month in the history of PSN store so Destiny TTK probably sold massively on PS digital.


Is that about right?
Seems right to me. Wish we had hard numbers. Quick someone sue Bungie so we can get some damn sales numbers!
 

Alo0oy

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Oct 12, 2014
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sörine;182313800 said:
It doesn't though because the scattered retail figures we do get aren't even complete or regionally comprehensive for retail itself. So ROW could very well go from "equals USA" to "less than half of USA" which isn't the same thing at all. And if digital nearly matched accounted retail like you joke, then ROW would be like -600k (lol).
Even selling half as well as the US makes RotW substantial, that's the point I was making. The US is the biggest consoles market in the world, while software sales regional splits vary depending on genre, in general the US is still the biggest market, & even if RotW software sales are half the US, that's still very substantial, even though it's extremely likely that it's much higher than just half the US. Incomplete numbers due to Canada or smaller European markets don't change that, Canada + European markets not tracked by Gfk + digital sales in the US & EU are still very likely <600k.
 

donny2112

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Apr 18, 2005
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Well if we are correct about the gap being 810k then that would mean a gap increase of 52k this month. Sooooo if if a gap of 8.29% on the chart is = 52k then that would mean

WiiU = 76k
XB1 = 250k
PS4 = 302k
Then that means these numbers and the 810K gap from last month can't be right.

NPD analyst Liam Callahan said:
&#8220;The majority of hardware platforms increased their sales from August 2015 to September 2015 when comparing sales on a per week basis,&#8221; said Callahan. &#8220;All eighth generation consoles [which includes PS4, Xbox One, and Wii U] experienced double-digit growth when comparing sales on a per-week basis.&#8221;
http://venturebeat.com/2015/10/19/september-2015-npd-ps4-wins/

XB1 sold 50K per week last month, so they had to sell at least 55K per week this month or a minimum of 275K.

I had a gap of 804K after last month, which would result in the below values this month using simultaneous equations.
I still shake my head at those Facebook posts that taunt their Algebra teachers "When am I supposed to be using that algebra that was going to be so important?" Well, right here! lol

PS4 - 337K
XB1 - 279K (fits down YOY story)
WIU - 84K (~100% up MOM, which contradicts Nintendo's 110% MOM increase statement)

Wii U is still acting up, but maybe 1) we had last month a couple K off, 2) Nintendo using some funky rounding, or 3) NPD readjusted last month's figures with their "software upgrade" that delayed this month's release. It's at least a much more minor grievance than if we try to change PS4/XB1 to fit the other data. For predictions, we'd be using the below, then.

For prediction results:
PS4 - 340K
XB1 - 280K
3DS - 120K
WIU - 85K

5K multiples, since we don't have a real exact number for any of them. Any major problems with these figures?
 

biggersmaller

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Sep 14, 2007
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I hope Metal Gear Solid V is missing Konami's projections by a big enough margin to avoid the temptation of making a sequel.

Say what you will about V and the ending, but it was a Kojima joint through and through. If people weren't pissed it wouldn't be Metal Gear.
 

Fdkn

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Jul 20, 2011
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Destiny added around 720k units to its LTD retail in the US. And a considerable amount more if we add digital legendary editions. 12 months after launch.
 

Chobel

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Mar 26, 2013
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Halo 5 gonna be released by 27 of October, so it kinda has its market effect carried into November.

So I think they have next month secured with the combination of Halo 5 being out almost before November, the release of Rise of The Tomb Raider. Plus whatever aggressive holiday price reduction/deals they have in store for this year.
It usually doesn't work like that, in this age almost everything has front-loaded effect, so the Halo biggest impact will happen in first 1-2 weeks. Aggressive holiday price reduction/deals... now these can make XBO win November yeah if Sony doesn't do anything to counter them (like last year).

LOL at you mentioning RoTTR, it has bomba written all over it.
 

Javin98

Banned
Nov 30, 2014
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For prediction results:
PS4 - 340K
XB1 - 280K
3DS - 120K
WIU - 85K

5K multiples, since we don't have a real exact number for any of them. Any major problems with these figures?
Yep, this works for me. Seems like these are the most accurate estimations for now. Although my predictions are still WAY off. :(
 

Chobel

Member
Mar 26, 2013
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For prediction results:
PS4 - 340K
XB1 - 280K
3DS - 120K
WIU - 85K

5K multiples, since we don't have a real exact number for any of them. Any major problems with these figures?
Yeah there's one major problem with these... I won't be #1 if you use them :p

Use mine, they're the best IMO
[3DS] 100K
[PS4] 330K
[WIU] 55K
[XB1] 260K
 

Obliterator

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Apr 21, 2015
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LOL, RotTR is gonna bomb, mainly because Microsoft seems to have abandoned it with little marketing. Releasing on the same day as Fallout 4 is also a horrible decision. In short, RotTR will very likely do pretty badly in the US and since it is exclusive to XBox this holiday season, everywhere else too. Fallout 4 and its bundles, on the other hand, could potentially do very well. Even then, I think Sony has a solid chance of winning the holidays.
Not to mention the biggest retailer in the US isn't even carrying the TR bundle
 

donny2112

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Apr 18, 2005
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Only with 3DS :p
We know is under 129k, so i think 125k for this month should me more correct, you don't think? :D
This seems right. Maybe 125k for 3DS.
3DS is a fairly loose figure, since we're going with YTD YOY increases in the midst of NPD changing old data, so I'm fine with 125K instead. (^_^)

According to my math 120k is better for 25% YoY gain.
Mine, too, but since we've been without a solid 3DS figure for a while now (just keep using YTD YOY increases), I'm okay with 125K, too.