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NPD Sales Results for September 2015 [Up2: Nintendo Numbers]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
- 1781
Since Microsoft won't be giving shipment numbers for their quarterly reports anymore, the best we can do is estimate, I guess. I'd say the XB1 shipped around 1 million units in Q3 2015, which should put the sold in numbers around 15 million IMO. It could reach 20 million shipped by the end of 2015, but right now, I see it falling slightly short of that milestone.
Honest question concerning overshipping.
If a console edition is shipped far too much to retailers, then a new edition comes out, retailers send a shitlod back and take the new one instead...
what will be counted?
Example:
1st year:
Old edition shipped: 5 Million
Sold or kept: 2 Million
2nd year:
Returned: 3 Million
New edition shipped: 4 Million
What is the total shipping number? 9 or 6?
What is the shipping number for 2nd year? 4 or 1?
If a console edition is shipped far too much to retailers, then a new edition comes out, retailers send a shitlod back and take the new one instead...
what will be counted?
Example:
1st year:
Old edition shipped: 5 Million
Sold or kept: 2 Million
2nd year:
Returned: 3 Million
New edition shipped: 4 Million
What is the total shipping number? 9 or 6?
What is the shipping number for 2nd year? 4 or 1?
Anything else is to help their stock. If Nintendo doesn't reveal anything their stock prices will plummet, MS can talk about Cloud revenue & Sony can talk about Insurance Services revenue & investors will be happy since those two divisions for those companies pretty much print money.
That's the benefit of Nintendo being a video games company I guess (from our perspective at least).
That's the benefit of Nintendo being a video games company I guess (from our perspective at least).
Using the numbers from the prediction thread ...
Current PS4 gap in terms of annual (starting at 0 each year) and in terms of XB1 userbase:
XB1 is in much better shape (for the year) going into October than last year. Of course the overall gap keeps increasing, but XB1 isn't falling behind as much YTD this year as last year. The PS4 lead is also still hanging around 10% of the XB1 LTD total, so there's definitely more competition between #1 and #2 this gen compared to previous gens.
Historical comparisons to previous gens:
PS4+XB1 continues to handily outpace PS360 from launch. Good news for third-parties, since those are the main consoles they are concerned with.
Falling behind overall numbers from previous gens, but that's a lot (but not totally) due to Nintendo's performance.
Looking at just the #1 and #2 systems from previous gens, PS4+XB1 are still ahead of PS2+XBX. There's every reason to expect that to continue, at least through this year, as Q4 is a bigger % of the YTD numbers than in previous gens.
Current PS4 gap in terms of annual (starting at 0 each year) and in terms of XB1 userbase:
XB1 is in much better shape (for the year) going into October than last year. Of course the overall gap keeps increasing, but XB1 isn't falling behind as much YTD this year as last year. The PS4 lead is also still hanging around 10% of the XB1 LTD total, so there's definitely more competition between #1 and #2 this gen compared to previous gens.
Historical comparisons to previous gens:
PS4+XB1 continues to handily outpace PS360 from launch. Good news for third-parties, since those are the main consoles they are concerned with.
Falling behind overall numbers from previous gens, but that's a lot (but not totally) due to Nintendo's performance.
Looking at just the #1 and #2 systems from previous gens, PS4+XB1 are still ahead of PS2+XBX. There's every reason to expect that to continue, at least through this year, as Q4 is a bigger % of the YTD numbers than in previous gens.
Well, you're free to have your predictions, but I highly doubt the XB1 shipped 15.5 million by the end of September 2015. The generally accepted estimation is that the XB1 shipped 14 million by the end of June 2015. Considering that Microsoft refused to release numbers, I really doubt that the XB1 shipped more than 1.2 million in Q3 2015.
Yep, in "pre-season", the US accounts for around 60% of the XB1's sales. During the holiday season, I'd say it's closer to 65% seeing how Microsoft focuses their best deals in the US. But this is probably more accurate to estimate sold through numbers.
Yep, in "pre-season", the US accounts for around 60% of the XB1's sales. During the holiday season, I'd say it's closer to 65% seeing how Microsoft focuses their best deals in the US. But this is probably more accurate to estimate sold through numbers.
In my estimate, XB1 is at ~14.1 million by end of June 2015.
I used 15.5 million for rounded the numbers because i like zero and five, but to be honest, i have ~15.4 million XB1.
Here what was my prediction
I predicted 1.3 million XB1 and 300k 360. I think is over the 1.4 million XBOX (XB1; 360) of last quarter for two reason:
1) XB1 has sold more than last quarter accourding to NPD in the US:
XB1 sales last quarter: 623,000 [ 187k / 139k / 297k]
XB1 sales this quarter: 672,000 [ 189k / 202k / 281k]
( and yes, US =/= The world, but at least we know near 60% of XB1 sales)
2) I think MS has ship some XB1 bundle for this holidays.
That's why i think XB1 shipments should be over last quarter ( ~1.1 million, but is just my estimate).
I have ~1.3 million XB1, so, not much more compared to last quarter all considering...
I used 15.5 million for rounded the numbers because i like zero and five, but to be honest, i have ~15.4 million XB1.
Here what was my prediction
I predicted 1.3 million XB1 and 300k 360. I think is over the 1.4 million XBOX (XB1; 360) of last quarter for two reason:
1) XB1 has sold more than last quarter accourding to NPD in the US:
XB1 sales last quarter: 623,000 [ 187k / 139k / 297k]
XB1 sales this quarter: 672,000 [ 189k / 202k / 281k]
( and yes, US =/= The world, but at least we know near 60% of XB1 sales)
2) I think MS has ship some XB1 bundle for this holidays.
That's why i think XB1 shipments should be over last quarter ( ~1.1 million, but is just my estimate).
I have ~1.3 million XB1, so, not much more compared to last quarter all considering...
Well, that was roundabout my question from above.
They have to sell in a lot of different SKUs, This will result in high shipping numbers.
But what happens with unsold stuff at retailers. I guess many units will be sent back as they have no need for these any more. And storage space isn't endless.
Will consloles sent back lower the numbers shipped or is shipped once = shipped forever, even if they never get sold but returned to MS?
They have to sell in a lot of different SKUs, This will result in high shipping numbers.
But what happens with unsold stuff at retailers. I guess many units will be sent back as they have no need for these any more. And storage space isn't endless.
Will consloles sent back lower the numbers shipped or is shipped once = shipped forever, even if they never get sold but returned to MS?
In my estimate, XB1 is at ~14.1 million by end of June 2015.
I used 15.5 million for rounded the numbers because i like zero and five, but to be honest, i have ~15.4 million XB1.
Here what was my prediction
I predicted 1.3 million XB1 and 300k 360. I think is over the 1.4 million XBOX (XB1; 360) of last quarter for two reason:
1) XB1 has sold more than last quarter accourding to NPD in the US:
XB1 sales last quarter: 623,000 [ 187k / 139k / 297k]
XB1 sales this quarter: 672,000 [ 189k / 202k / 281k]
( and yes, US =/= The world, but at least we know near 60% of XB1 sales)
2) I think MS has ship some XB1 bundle for this holidays.
That's why i think XB1 shipments should be over last quarter ( ~1.1 million, but is just my estimate).
I have ~1.3 million XB1, so, not much more compared to last quarter all considering...
I used 15.5 million for rounded the numbers because i like zero and five, but to be honest, i have ~15.4 million XB1.
Here what was my prediction
I predicted 1.3 million XB1 and 300k 360. I think is over the 1.4 million XBOX (XB1; 360) of last quarter for two reason:
1) XB1 has sold more than last quarter accourding to NPD in the US:
XB1 sales last quarter: 623,000 [ 187k / 139k / 297k]
XB1 sales this quarter: 672,000 [ 189k / 202k / 281k]
( and yes, US =/= The world, but at least we know near 60% of XB1 sales)
2) I think MS has ship some XB1 bundle for this holidays.
That's why i think XB1 shipments should be over last quarter ( ~1.1 million, but is just my estimate).
I have ~1.3 million XB1, so, not much more compared to last quarter all considering...
I'm just being conservative seeing how Microsoft didn't give any numbers. Keep in mind 1.2 million was referring to XB1 alone. Also, most of the bundles are focused on the US, so I think it's reasonable as they don't have to refilling stock for the rest of the world as much. Please correct me if wrong.
what is the trajectory for xb1 then? i hadn't realized sales were so absolutely okay. by that i mean it's obvious it's not taking the world by storm, but at the very very least we're looking at 35m+ worldwide. i made the estimate of 60m last year and earlier this year, but that doesn't seem a very likely goal at this moment. maybe 45-50 million? if 60% going to the us holds up throughout the generation, that's at least 27 million in the us by the end of the generation, which is basically where the ps3 was (and a pretty impressive number to boot).
Yep, I'm predicting 50 million XB1 sold through before it is discontinued. I expect sales in the US to be around 30 million, probably 32 million by the end. The sales are absolutely okay, the XB1 is definitely not dead like the Wii U. It's just that the sales ratio of the PS4 to XB1 is almost 2:1 WW and the PS4 can sometimes make the XB1 look bad.
Based on these numbers, I'm guessing you think the successor of the XB1 is coming in late 2018? Personally, I think the successors to the PS4 and XB1 are coming in late 2019 at the earliest. Honestly, though, at this point, I'm not even sure if Microsoft will release a successor to the XB1. Anyway, what are your predictions for the PS4 on the other hand? I'm predicting 120 million before it is discontinued, which is sometime in 2023 or later.
All is possible.
I personally expect PS4 peak in 2016, but i don't think will be much bigger than 2015, because i think the sales will be bigger for the firsts months, but then, i don't think the holidays sales will be at 2015 level.
PS4 has a pricedrop and the marketing of COD and Star Wars this holidays, which are gonna be HUGE.
Is hard to say now, since we don't know what will be the PS4 holidays line up next year, but as for now, i don't think will be bigger than this year.
I expect PS4 to sell 7.8 million this quarter, probabily 7.2-7.5 million next year.
Then, after 2016, well, nothing to say, since i believe will be the peak year the sales will drop until PS5 release.
I personally expect PS4 peak in 2016, but i don't think will be much bigger than 2015, because i think the sales will be bigger for the firsts months, but then, i don't think the holidays sales will be at 2015 level.
PS4 has a pricedrop and the marketing of COD and Star Wars this holidays, which are gonna be HUGE.
Is hard to say now, since we don't know what will be the PS4 holidays line up next year, but as for now, i don't think will be bigger than this year.
I expect PS4 to sell 7.8 million this quarter, probabily 7.2-7.5 million next year.
Then, after 2016, well, nothing to say, since i believe will be the peak year the sales will drop until PS5 release.