NPD Sales Results for September 2015 [Up2: Nintendo Numbers]

[Fat4all]

MS stopped to give any shipment numbers... WTF?

Probably the best we can hope for as far as announcements go is milestone numbers, but honestly that still seems a little iffy.

We'll just have to keep ballparking it in NA.

 

[Javin98]

Since Microsoft won't be giving shipment numbers for their quarterly reports anymore, the best we can do is estimate, I guess. I'd say the XB1 shipped around 1 million units in Q3 2015, which should put the sold in numbers around 15 million IMO. It could reach 20 million shipped by the end of 2015, but right now, I see it falling slightly short of that milestone.

 

[slavesnyder]

Honest question concerning overshipping.

If a console edition is shipped far too much to retailers, then a new edition comes out, retailers send a shitlod back and take the new one instead...
what will be counted?

Example:

1st year:
Old edition shipped: 5 Million
Sold or kept: 2 Million
2nd year:
Returned: 3 Million
New edition shipped: 4 Million

What is the total shipping number? 9 or 6?
What is the shipping number for 2nd year? 4 or 1?

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Since Microsoft won't be giving shipment numbers for their quarterly reports anymore, the best we can do is estimate, I guess. I'd say the XB1 shipped around 1 million units in Q3 2015, which should put the sold in numbers around 15 million IMO. It could reach 20 million shipped by the end of 2015, but right now, I see it falling slightly short of that milestone.

15.5 million in my estimate.
They will reach 20 million before year end.

 

[hodayathink]

Honest question concerning overshipping.

If a console edition is shipped far too much to retailers, then a new edition comes out, retailers send a shitlod back and take the new one instead...
what will be counted?

Example:

1st year:
Old edition shipped: 5 Million
Sold or kept: 2 Million
2nd year:
Returned: 3 Million
New edition shipped: 4 Million

What is the total shipping number? 9 or 6?
What is the shipping number for 2nd year? 4 or 1?

Something similar happened to Nintendo when they took the basic WiiU off the market and they had to buy back a lot of them from Europe, and they basically ended up shipping negative units to the region (their financial reports didn't have to say that because they don't list shipments by region).

 

[BokehKing]

GT6 had a bad debut, but it's hard to make a final judgment on the state of the genre based on that game because it launched on PS3 after the PS4 launched.

GT5 sold 2.8 million in the US, so GT7 will be do or die for the genre in the US.

Wait....when did GT6 release? I thought gt6 would be the next entry on ps4 and we would be waiting years for it

 

[N.Domixis]

15.5 million in my estimate.
They will reach 20 million before year end.

Crazy how far away ps4 is getting.

 

[Primethius]

Wait....when did GT6 release? I thought gt6 would be the next entry on ps4 and we would be waiting years for it

December after PS4 launched. Really poor timing.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Crazy how far away ps4 is getting.

PS4 should be over 36 million by end of year, or very close with this. ( 36.1 million is my prediction )

By end of 2015, i believe we will see around 80% gap on PS4 favour... but we will never know if that's right, unless MS release the total XB1 shipments... which is not gonna happen.

 

[Bruno MB]

Thank goodness that no matter how bad Nintendo does we will still get detailed quarterly shipment data unless... the new president changes that

 

[Alo0oy]

Thank goodness that no matter how bad Nintendo does we will still get detailed quarterly shipment data unless... the new president changes that

Nintendo is a video games focused company, so I don't think they can get away with that the same way Sony & Microsoft can.

 

[1st Course]

Companies are not required to reveal any unit figures. As long as they are reporting the legally required information (income statement, balance sheet) they are abiding by the law. Anything else is extra.

 

[jryi]

15.5 million in my estimate.
They will reach 20 million before year end.

What do you base your estimates on? I see no reason to believe in shipments over 1M during last quarter.

 

[Alo0oy]

Companies are not required to reveal any unit figures. As long as they are reporting the legally required information (income statement, balance sheet) they are abiding by the law. Anything else is extra.

Anything else is to help their stock. If Nintendo doesn't reveal anything their stock prices will plummet, MS can talk about Cloud revenue & Sony can talk about Insurance Services revenue & investors will be happy since those two divisions for those companies pretty much print money.

That's the benefit of Nintendo being a video games company I guess (from our perspective at least).

 

[cakely]

Huh? It's been on sale all month. And last month. And the month before that.

Sorry, I mean the Halo 5 bundle actually just became "available" on Amazon, as in, they just started delivering it to customers.

Typically that's when the bundle would hit its peak, right at availability.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Thank goodness that no matter how bad Nintendo does we will still get detailed quarterly shipment data unless... the new president changes that

NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Please no!!!!!!!! D:

 

[Alo0oy]

Sorry, I mean the Halo 5 bundle actually just became "available" on Amazon, as in, they just started delivering it to customers.

Typically that's when the bundle would hit its peak, right at availability.

Maybe at Gamestop, but not at Amazon if we look at the hourly charts before or after release.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Since Microsoft won't be giving shipment numbers for their quarterly reports anymore, the best we can do is estimate, I guess. I'd say the XB1 shipped around 1 million units in Q3 2015, which should put the sold in numbers around 15 million IMO. It could reach 20 million shipped by the end of 2015, but right now, I see it falling slightly short of that milestone.

We can probably make rough estimates if we assume that, for instance, US sales make up 60% of the XBO's total sales (I'm just throwing out a random number).

 

[Primethius]

We can probably make rough estimates if we assume that, for instance, US sales make up 60% of the XBO's total sales (I'm just throwing out a random number).

I think you're pretty close. I remember a detailed post a while back saying that it was around 66-67% if I'm not mistaken.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

We can probably make rough estimates if we assume that, for instance, US sales make up 60% of the XBO's total sales (I'm just throwing out a random number).

More like under 60% / over 55%... more close to 60% too.

 

[Alo0oy]

The 60% was around the time XB1 launched in tier 2 countries, US shipments are likely much higher than 60% now that they're done with all the initial shipments to tier 2.

 

[theprodigy]

The 60% was around the time XB1 launched in tier 2 countries, US shipments are likely much higher than 60% now that they're done with all the initial shipments to tier 2.

60% was before tier 2 launch, we're not revisiting this debate though because it will go nowhere.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

More like under 60% / over 55%... more close to 60% too.

I think it's closer to 55% than 60%, though I have nothing to back up this claim.

Spoiler

The lack of even combined shipped numbers is already starting to frustrate me >_<

 

[donny2112]

Using the numbers from the prediction thread ...

Current PS4 gap in terms of annual (starting at 0 each year) and in terms of XB1 userbase:

XB1 is in much better shape (for the year) going into October than last year. Of course the overall gap keeps increasing, but XB1 isn't falling behind as much YTD this year as last year. The PS4 lead is also still hanging around 10% of the XB1 LTD total, so there's definitely more competition between #1 and #2 this gen compared to previous gens.


Historical comparisons to previous gens:

PS4+XB1 continues to handily outpace PS360 from launch. Good news for third-parties, since those are the main consoles they are concerned with.

Falling behind overall numbers from previous gens, but that's a lot (but not totally) due to Nintendo's performance.

Looking at just the #1 and #2 systems from previous gens, PS4+XB1 are still ahead of PS2+XBX. There's every reason to expect that to continue, at least through this year, as Q4 is a bigger % of the YTD numbers than in previous gens.

 

[Javin98]

15.5 million in my estimate.
They will reach 20 million before year end.

Well, you're free to have your predictions, but I highly doubt the XB1 shipped 15.5 million by the end of September 2015. The generally accepted estimation is that the XB1 shipped 14 million by the end of June 2015. Considering that Microsoft refused to release numbers, I really doubt that the XB1 shipped more than 1.2 million in Q3 2015.

We can probably make rough estimates if we assume that, for instance, US sales make up 60% of the XBO's total sales (I'm just throwing out a random number).

Yep, in "pre-season", the US accounts for around 60% of the XB1's sales. During the holiday season, I'd say it's closer to 65% seeing how Microsoft focuses their best deals in the US. But this is probably more accurate to estimate sold through numbers.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Well, you're free to have your predictions, but I highly doubt the XB1 shipped 15.5 million by the end of September 2015. The generally accepted estimation is that the XB1 shipped 14 million by the end of June 2015. Considering that Microsoft refused to release numbers, I really doubt that the XB1 shipped more than 1.2 million in Q3 2015.

In my estimate, XB1 is at ~14.1 million by end of June 2015.
I used 15.5 million for rounded the numbers because i like zero and five, but to be honest, i have ~15.4 million XB1.

Here what was my prediction

I predicted 1.3 million XB1 and 300k 360. I think is over the 1.4 million XBOX (XB1; 360) of last quarter for two reason:

1) XB1 has sold more than last quarter accourding to NPD in the US:
XB1 sales last quarter: 623,000 [ 187k / 139k / 297k]
XB1 sales this quarter: 672,000 [ 189k / 202k / 281k]
( and yes, US =/= The world, but at least we know near 60% of XB1 sales)

2) I think MS has ship some XB1 bundle for this holidays.

That's why i think XB1 shipments should be over last quarter ( ~1.1 million, but is just my estimate).
I have ~1.3 million XB1, so, not much more compared to last quarter all considering...

 

[Welfare]

Well, you're free to have your predictions, but I highly doubt the XB1 shipped 15.5 million by the end of September 2015. The generally accepted estimation is that the XB1 shipped 14 million by the end of June 2015. Considering that Microsoft refused to release numbers, I really doubt that the XB1 shipped more than 1.2 million in Q3 2015.

1.2 million is too low. They had to not only restock the 1TB and the Halo sku, but they also shipped the Madden bundle, Forza bundle, Fifa bundle, Gears bundle, and had to start shipping the Lego bundle, Halo 5 bundle, and the Holiday bundle plus the Kinect bundle.

 

[DieH@rd]

Even with Tier 2 launch [what a clusterfuck that whole story was], 2.4M was poor result for Xbone+X360 last year.

With numbers being lower this year, it's not strange that MS has pulled the shipment reports [but still very disappointing].

 

[Y2Kev]

Is this the month where rockband cratered or is that next month?

 

[slavesnyder]

1.2 million is too low. They had to not only restock the 1TB and the Halo sku, but they also shipped the Madden bundle, Forza bundle, Fifa bundle, Gears bundle, and had to start shipping the Lego bundle, Halo 5 bundle, and the Holiday bundle plus the Kinect bundle.

Well, that was roundabout my question from above.
They have to sell in a lot of different SKUs, This will result in high shipping numbers.
But what happens with unsold stuff at retailers. I guess many units will be sent back as they have no need for these any more. And storage space isn't endless.
Will consloles sent back lower the numbers shipped or is shipped once = shipped forever, even if they never get sold but returned to MS?

 

[Saty]

No THPS 5 estimations?

 

[ZSaberLink]

Is this the month where rockband cratered or is that next month?

It came out October 6th. Is that included in this NPD period?

 

[Sangetsu-II]

It came out October 6th. Is that included in this NPD period?

No (August 30-October 3, 2015), It's next month then.

 

[Javin98]

In my estimate, XB1 is at ~14.1 million by end of June 2015.
I used 15.5 million for rounded the numbers because i like zero and five, but to be honest, i have ~15.4 million XB1.

Here what was my prediction

I predicted 1.3 million XB1 and 300k 360. I think is over the 1.4 million XBOX (XB1; 360) of last quarter for two reason:

1) XB1 has sold more than last quarter accourding to NPD in the US:
XB1 sales last quarter: 623,000 [ 187k / 139k / 297k]
XB1 sales this quarter: 672,000 [ 189k / 202k / 281k]
( and yes, US =/= The world, but at least we know near 60% of XB1 sales)

2) I think MS has ship some XB1 bundle for this holidays.

That's why i think XB1 shipments should be over last quarter ( ~1.1 million, but is just my estimate).
I have ~1.3 million XB1, so, not much more compared to last quarter all considering...

Well, my predictions are not too far behind yours, then. I could be suspecting too much, but I think 1.3 million is too high because Microsoft refused to give any numbers. Anyway, I predict the XB1 shipped around 1.1 million last quarter, bringing the total shipment numbers to around 15.2 million. We'll just have to wait and see whose prediction is closer (hopefully).

1.2 million is too low. They had to not only restock the 1TB and the Halo sku, but they also shipped the Madden bundle, Forza bundle, Fifa bundle, Gears bundle, and had to start shipping the Lego bundle, Halo 5 bundle, and the Holiday bundle plus the Kinect bundle.

I'm just being conservative seeing how Microsoft didn't give any numbers. Keep in mind 1.2 million was referring to XB1 alone. Also, most of the bundles are focused on the US, so I think it's reasonable as they don't have to refilling stock for the rest of the world as much. Please correct me if wrong.

 

[AniHawk]

I'm just being conservative seeing how Microsoft didn't give any numbers. Keep in mind 1.2 million was referring to XB1 alone. Also, most of the bundles are focused on the US, so I think it's reasonable as they don't have to refilling stock for the rest of the world as much. Please correct me if wrong.

what is the trajectory for xb1 then? i hadn't realized sales were so absolutely okay. by that i mean it's obvious it's not taking the world by storm, but at the very very least we're looking at 35m+ worldwide. i made the estimate of 60m last year and earlier this year, but that doesn't seem a very likely goal at this moment. maybe 45-50 million? if 60% going to the us holds up throughout the generation, that's at least 27 million in the us by the end of the generation, which is basically where the ps3 was (and a pretty impressive number to boot).

 

[Neuromancer]

Is this the month where rockband cratered or is that next month?

I wonder if Guitar Hero Live will fare any better.

 

[Javin98]

what is the trajectory for xb1 then? i hadn't realized sales were so absolutely okay. by that i mean it's obvious it's not taking the world by storm, but at the very very least we're looking at 35m+ worldwide. i made the estimate of 60m last year and earlier this year, but that doesn't seem a very likely goal at this moment. maybe 45-50 million? if 60% going to the us holds up throughout the generation, that's at least 27 million in the us by the end of the generation, which is basically where the ps3 was (and a pretty impressive number to boot).

Yep, I'm predicting 50 million XB1 sold through before it is discontinued. I expect sales in the US to be around 30 million, probably 32 million by the end. The sales are absolutely okay, the XB1 is definitely not dead like the Wii U. It's just that the sales ratio of the PS4 to XB1 is almost 2:1 WW and the PS4 can sometimes make the XB1 look bad.

 

[FF Seraphim]

50 million by the end seems low... That is 30 million less than the X360 which wouldn't look good at all... Freaking 3rd console curse.

 

[Javin98]

50 million by the end seems low... That is 30 million less than the X360 which wouldn't look good at all... Freaking 3rd console curse.

Well, the 360 had a full year head start over its competitors and launched in a much better position than the XB1. Many non-gamers or even casuals may still believe that the XB1 has those ridiculous DRM policies, which the 360 didn't suffer from.

 

[AniHawk]

50 million by the end seems low... That is 30 million less than the X360 which wouldn't look good at all... Freaking 3rd console curse.

the question is where the sales will come from. 27m in the states is already 18m lower than what the 360 did. even in japan the 360 did north of 1.5m units and xb1 looks like it might never reach 100,000 units sold.

 

[travisbickle]

I don't think the US is as strong a market as it once was. I don't think any of the consoles will sell what they sold last gen in the US, within a shorter lifecycle.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

the question is where the sales will come from. 27m in the states is already 18m lower than what the 360 did. even in japan the 360 did north of 1.5m units and xb1 looks like it might never reach 100,000 units sold.

The XB1's sales in Europe are nothing to be proud of either....

 

[AniHawk]

I don't think the US is as strong a market as it once was. I don't think any of the consoles will sell what they sold last gen in the US, within a shorter lifecycle.

the ps4 should at least clear 35m. i know that might sound high but i think it's really going to start taking off in 2016 and 2017.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Yep, I'm predicting 50 million XB1 sold through before it is discontinued. I expect sales in the US to be around 30 million, probably 32 million by the end. The sales are absolutely okay, the XB1 is definitely not dead like the Wii U. It's just that the sales ratio of the PS4 to XB1 is almost 2:1 WW and the PS4 can sometimes make the XB1 look bad.

I predict 40 million sold in.
between 20 and 25 million in the US.

[2013] 3,900,000
[2014] 8,000,000
[2015] 8,200,000
[2016] 7,500,000
[2017] 6,000,000
[2018] 3,500,000
[2019] 1,800,000
[2020] 800,000

 

[Javin98]

I predict 40 million sold in.
between 20 and 25 million in the US.

[2013] 3,900,000
[2014] 8,000,000
[2015] 8,200,000
[2016] 7,500,000
[2017] 6,000,000
[2018] 3,500,000
[2019] 1,800,000
[2020] 800,000

Based on these numbers, I'm guessing you think the successor of the XB1 is coming in late 2018? Personally, I think the successors to the PS4 and XB1 are coming in late 2019 at the earliest. Honestly, though, at this point, I'm not even sure if Microsoft will release a successor to the XB1. Anyway, what are your predictions for the PS4 on the other hand? I'm predicting 120 million before it is discontinued, which is sometime in 2023 or later.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Anyway, what are your predictions for the PS4 on the other hand?

[2013] 4,500,000
[2014] 15,400,000
[2015] 16,100,000
[2016] 16,500,000
[2017] 14,000,000
[2018] 12,000,000
[2019] 7,800,000
[2020] 3,900,000
[2021] 1,800,000
[2022] 800,000

 

[Javin98]

[2013] 4,500,000
[2014] 15,400,000
[2015] 16,100,000
[2016] 16,500,000
[2017] 14,000,000
[2018] 12,000,000
[2019] 7,800,000
[2020] 3,900,000
[2021] 1,800,000
[2022] 800,000

LOL, a total of those numbers would be nice. But just by looking at it, I think it's above 100 million?

 

[Ryng_tolu]

LOL, a total of those numbers would be nice. But just by looking at it, I think it's above 100 million?

I expect PS4 to sell between 90 and 95 million. 100 million are possible too, but i don't think so.

 

[Javin98]

I expect PS4 to sell between 90 and 95 million. 100 million are possible too, but i don't think so.

Ah, okay. Honestly, I think your estimations are pretty conservative. Are you expecting the NX to have a significant impact on the sales of the PS4 and XB1? Also, I think if PSVR takes off, we will see significantly better sales for the PS4 and that is why I'm predicting 120 million.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Ah, okay. Honestly, I think your estimations are pretty conservative. Are you expecting the NX to have a significant impact on the sales of the PS4 and XB1? Also, I think if PSVR takes off, we will see significantly better sales for the PS4 and that is why I'm predicting 120 million.

All is possible.
I personally expect PS4 peak in 2016, but i don't think will be much bigger than 2015, because i think the sales will be bigger for the firsts months, but then, i don't think the holidays sales will be at 2015 level.

PS4 has a pricedrop and the marketing of COD and Star Wars this holidays, which are gonna be HUGE.
Is hard to say now, since we don't know what will be the PS4 holidays line up next year, but as for now, i don't think will be bigger than this year.
I expect PS4 to sell 7.8 million this quarter, probabily 7.2-7.5 million next year.

Then, after 2016, well, nothing to say, since i believe will be the peak year the sales will drop until PS5 release.