DeadOnions
Member
I actually think we'll see a slim PS4 for $300 next year. Alongside (hopefully) GT and Horizon with further Star Wars marketing and potentially a next gen only Destiny I think it should easily top this year.
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NPD Sales Results for September 2015 [Up2: Nintendo Numbers]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
I get what you mean, the truth is there are so many variables now that can result in an increase or decline in sales over the next few years. But for me, unless we see a significant decline in sales and PSVR not being successful and just another gimmick, I'm gonna keep my prediction of 120 million PS4's sold before it is discontinued. Also, I think 2017 will be bigger than 2015 sales wise because we might see a Slim revision next year or in 2017, so that will probably increase sales quite a bit.
regarding when a console peaks, doesn't software determine that?
does that imply that PS4 seeing a strong decline by 2017 means there won't be key software to spur sales from that point on and that in Q4 2016 at the latest, all main software people want for it be already be released with everything else being gravy?
honest question, I'm curious.
does that imply that PS4 seeing a strong decline by 2017 means there won't be key software to spur sales from that point on and that in Q4 2016 at the latest, all main software people want for it be already be released with everything else being gravy?
honest question, I'm curious.
tattooed_dwarf
Member
Thing with PSVR is that does most potential customers already have PS4 or will it be for those who aren't interested gaming with current hardware yet?
If your talking the console itself then peak is normally year the console sells the most units I'd have thought. It might peak in terms of software on a different year.
That would depend on price. Ex. If your asking people to shell out $350 for the console and $300-350 for the headset, that's just not gonna happen
It'll probably attract a niche portion of the existing ps4 userbase
Another fact which i didn't mention is the decline of the main multiplatform games.
As we know, games like Battlefield, Call of Duty, Assassin's Creed, FIFA, and others games which were very huge last gen, are in decline. And i think this drop of those main series of last gen will hurt PS4 and XB1 sales... for example, i really can't see COD so strong in 2017 / 2018.
It will still sell millions and millions, but not as much as now.
But like i said, we will see. All is possible.
Yep, this remains to be seen, but I bet if PSVR were big enough, the casuals would buy a PS4 just for it.
Yeah, this is another factor to consider. However, other multiplatform IP's like Titanfall and Destiny could take their place. I'm just saying.
The price needs to be right. If it plus the system ends up being $600 or more then I just can't see it taking off with the mainstream audience.
Every gen there are popular series from the previous gen that start to fade away and be replaced. I definitely think that Destiny and Titanfall will be series that are looked back upon near the end of this current gen in a similar way that people looked back at COD last gen.
About the PSVR, yep, I agree. I can see the headset being $249 but Sony will bundle a PS4 and a PSVR headset for $549 when it launches, I think. Also, the experience has to be absolutely game changing and immersive for the causals to gain interest. As for Destiny and Titanfall, that's what I meant.
True. But i don't think will happen. As we know, games like AC, FIFA, and COD, are continued to increase years after years.
AC peaked in 2012, FIFA peaked in 2012, and COD in 2011. ( at least launch, dunno about LT sales).
I don't think will happen again. Titanfall 2 will probabily sell more than Titanfall, but only because the PS4 version. The game is death in the others platform, and i don't think will be bigger on XBOX. Maybe, just maybe, a bit bigger, but only because XB1 will be at >20 million userbase compared to the < 5 million of March 2014, and who will buy Titanfall already has a XB1.
Destiny, and Watch Dogs... eh, i don't know. The lauch of those games was pretty strong.
Destiny sold 6.3 million worldwide in September 2014, nearly 3 million only in the US, and Watch Dogs around 4 million first week.
After many bad reviews, and the huge hype of the launch... i think those games have already peaked.
ethomaz
Banned
Seems like Halo bundle launch it couldn't manage to sell more than UCC bundle at Amazon.
In UK the games sells over 8k per week yet.
I don't think Destiny peaked yet... TTK launch was even bigger than Destiny vanilla.
In UK the games sells over 8k per week yet.
Amazon monthly has updated after more than a week without a refresh.
October NPD is going to be Mightily Interesting (tm), whichever way it ends up going imo
#23: XB1 Halo 5 Bundle
#25: PS4 UC Collection Bundle
#28: PS4 Battlefront LE bundle - November
#38: PS4 TLOU Bundle
#46: PS4 TTK Bundle
#51: PS4 COD Bundle - November
#99: XB1 GeoW Bundle
Looks like the 5 days the XB1 took the top spot (on the hourly) pushed it ahead, but it has been over since Sunday now.
Interesting indeed ...
October NPD is going to be Mightily Interesting (tm), whichever way it ends up going imo
#23: XB1 Halo 5 Bundle
#25: PS4 UC Collection Bundle
#28: PS4 Battlefront LE bundle - November
#38: PS4 TLOU Bundle
#46: PS4 TTK Bundle
#51: PS4 COD Bundle - November
#99: XB1 GeoW Bundle
Looks like the 5 days the XB1 took the top spot (on the hourly) pushed it ahead, but it has been over since Sunday now.
Interesting indeed ...
So far Uncharted bundle is doing better than Halo bundle in the hourly, so, unless a final comeback, Uncharted bundle is gonna be first for the monthly.
They will be pretty close too.
The problem is that XB1 Halo bundle has a lot of pre orders from August... hard month to predict.
They will be pretty close too.
The problem is that XB1 Halo bundle has a lot of pre orders from August... hard month to predict.
Xbox One probably will win, it's Halo 5 after all. But PS4 will be a close second.
KANYE WEST
Banned
In the end, were all losers.
Agreed. October will be very close. I don't expect XB1 or PS4 to win by over 30k.
i think the mistake is assuming that 'casuals' are people who like any sort of 'gimmick'
instead of considering the past success of the ds, wii, and kinect based on 'gimmicks', instead consider the ease of use and affordability. a casual gamer is someone who simply plays a video game when they're bored or maybe a couple of times a year with a friend. they're not the traditional enthusiast market or the mainstream market, generally. if something is quick to understand, and relatively inexpensive, then it's probably worth checking out. a dance game, a fitness game, a sports game, or a brain training game could all fit into those molds. with mobile, you don't even need to have to buy the console or individual physical copies of software - you can just have those experiences on a device you already own.
the ps vr may retail for $199.99. by the time it's out, sony may be able to bundle it with the ps3 for $499.99. is that a low enough price for a mass market? is it enough of an impulse buy like the kinect, wii, or ds in the last decade? part of it will be software too - what experiences are there that will make it more than a one-off novelty like the 3ds? can people who play games mostly on mobile devices be able to comprehend the dual shock layout?
i think sony's better chance at improving late ps4 sales will be revisions of the ps4 itself, maybe in the new 3ds sense too. as it stands i feel like ps vr is going to more or less be sony's sega cd, which is an important step forward into making this a big part of dedicated gaming. it needs to be the focus of the console though, where software is developed specifically for it from major studios.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Final Verdict
Member
Ancedotal info
Lady at my local gamestop said Halo 5 had ~80 preorders.
For comparison, she said that Cod had ~200, and Fallout had ~120 (across all platforms).
Just thought it was interesting enough to share even though I don't think we could pull any reliable projections from it.
Lady at my local gamestop said Halo 5 had ~80 preorders.
For comparison, she said that Cod had ~200, and Fallout had ~120 (across all platforms).
Just thought it was interesting enough to share even though I don't think we could pull any reliable projections from it.
DriftingSpirit
Member
In what way? Software? Or in terms of moving hardware? Both?
People were burnt by Halo 4 and reviewers are giving it lower scores than that game. It might sell less than you think.
Halo will always be a big software mover. I really hope no one denies that. I'm curious as to how much hardware it'll help move. Halo 3 helped push over 500k console the month it launched. I'm wondering if Halo 5 can do that. I doubt it but we'll see.
Primethius
Banned
I don't think (or at least I hope) anyone actually thinks Halo is not big.
But how much hardware will it move is the more pertinent question. It'll be interesting to see where the brand is with all the changes that it has undergone.
Neuromancer
Member
About 10,000 miles in diameter if Wikipedia is to be believed.
I still think it'll be less than Halo 1-4's opening months, but 2+ million is an easy guess. 3+ million in the first month (really week) is where it's iffy, even with digital.
I am very curious to see what sort of effect the other big FPSes releasing this year have on Halo's population. Will it be a short decrease on their release or will the numbers slowly bleed out never to return? I suppose the drip feed of new content 343i is planning might help bring players back into the fold following other big releases but I doubt seriously that Halo will weather this storm of Black Ops and Battlefront without any population impact.
That said, XB1 will probably edge it out this month. The win will likely be tight (less than 50k) considering the sales gap last holiday but it will be a win. Despite, in all likelihood, selling less systems on release than previous entries Halo certainly seems to have pulled it weight in the hardware sales department. I will admit that it far exceeded my expectations. I definitely underestimated the continued strength of the Halo brand in the states. Clearly the recent debacles with the franchise have done much less to diminish the fervor that fans have for the series than I personally felt it had. I suppose my impressions could still end up being true if the game proves to have the shorter legs of its predecessor but, for whatever reason, that seems unlikely to me at this point.
That said, XB1 will probably edge it out this month. The win will likely be tight (less than 50k) considering the sales gap last holiday but it will be a win. Despite, in all likelihood, selling less systems on release than previous entries Halo certainly seems to have pulled it weight in the hardware sales department. I will admit that it far exceeded my expectations. I definitely underestimated the continued strength of the Halo brand in the states. Clearly the recent debacles with the franchise have done much less to diminish the fervor that fans have for the series than I personally felt it had. I suppose my impressions could still end up being true if the game proves to have the shorter legs of its predecessor but, for whatever reason, that seems unlikely to me at this point.
Chobel
Member
I say XBO will win with at least 100K difference (October NPD). Halo 5 is just too big and I doubt a $50 price cut is gonna increase the sales of PS4 that much. Plus many people will wait for the good PS4 bundles (SWBF bundles).
He probably doesn't know MS will cut the price by $50 this Holiday, so yeah MS will win and it won't be close.
He probably doesn't know MS will cut the price by $50 this Holiday, so yeah MS will win and it won't be close.
The whole holiday season? Or do you just mean October?
Edit: Oh nvm durrr the old Opposite of Pachter meme. Man I need to sleep. Damn PGW for keeping me up last night.
unknownstranger
Member
I've seen a ton of Halo ads online but barely any on TV. It's mainly been CoD PS4 ads and Battlefront PS4 ads, with Fallout 4 XBO ads recently appearing.
freefornow
Member
Cant believe that the Oct prediction thread is only a few days away!
Amazon monthly has updated after more than a week without a refresh.
October NPD is going to be Mightily Interesting (tm), whichever way it ends up going imo
#23: XB1 Halo 5 Bundle
#25: PS4 UC Collection Bundle
#28: PS4 Battlefront LE bundle - November
#38: PS4 TLOU Bundle
#46: PS4 TTK Bundle
#51: PS4 COD Bundle - November
#99: XB1 GeoW Bundle
Looks like the 5 days the XB1 took the top spot (on the hourly) pushed it ahead, but it has been over since Sunday now.
Interesting indeed ...
Probably there will be the update one more time before next NPD prediction thread.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Get_craycray
Banned
It's not old news, they talk about the 25 million from the last quarter but he is saying that they are well over 25 million now.
No it shouldn't. Well over 25 million doesn't really mean anything. He's probably just citing figures from Sony's financial report.
Welfare
Member
Does Sony use shipped numbers as their "installed base"?
In just 5 days I think that definitely will miss the 3m mark on NPD and probably will miss including digital too.
yukianderson
Member
In the next monthly update the uncharted bundle will be ahead of the Halo bundle. Also two there are two more bundles in the top 100 for PS4. I think the desicion to not make a 350 dollars halo bundle hurt MS in the long run. I still think Sony takes the month but it will interesting to see if MS does indeed drop the price if Sony will just simply introduce a 300 vanilla PS4 to counter.
He does, everybody does. Pretty sure he is taking that possible price cut into consideration .
Yeah, it seems to me that you really love being wrong.
The hourly has been something like this for the past 24 hours:
#10 PS4 UC Bundle
#21 XB1 Halo 5 Bundle
#22 PS4 LE Star Wars Bundle
#23 PS4 LE Call of Duty Bundle
#58 PS4 Star Wars Bundle
#61 XB1 Gears of War Bundle
#69 XB1 Madden Bundle
#73 XB1 Forza 6 Bundle
#86 PS4 Non-Bundle (wtf?)
Out of those only the UC Bundle counts for PS4 for October. It's gonna be very close imo.
As far as November, I only see those Star Wars bundles and even that CoD bundle just selling at insane rates the closer we get to their respective release dates. Xbox would need a price cut to compete imo.
#10 PS4 UC Bundle
#21 XB1 Halo 5 Bundle
#22 PS4 LE Star Wars Bundle
#23 PS4 LE Call of Duty Bundle
#58 PS4 Star Wars Bundle
#61 XB1 Gears of War Bundle
#69 XB1 Madden Bundle
#73 XB1 Forza 6 Bundle
#86 PS4 Non-Bundle (wtf?)
Out of those only the UC Bundle counts for PS4 for October. It's gonna be very close imo.
As far as November, I only see those Star Wars bundles and even that CoD bundle just selling at insane rates the closer we get to their respective release dates. Xbox would need a price cut to compete imo.
I don't think CoD bundle will have insane sales because it's $429. Star Wars standard bundle will lead and should have crazy sales like Xbox One AC bundle last year.