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NPD September 2011 Sales Results [Update 3: FIFA 12, Madden 12, Dead Island]

MikeE21286

Member
Jun 15, 2007
23,767
0
1,110
Kazerei said:
Assassin's Creed: Revelations
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3
Batman: Arkham City
Battlefield 3

Disney Universe
Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Just Dance 3
Halo: Combat Evolved Anniversary
Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword
LEGO Harry Potter: Years 5-7
Madden NFL 12
Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
NBA 2K12
Super Mario 3D Land
Uncharted 3


UC3 will surely be in the top 10
 

Loudninja

Member
Jul 30, 2007
53,088
3
0
32
Chicago
BishopLamont said:
It really doesn't matter. 180k for the first month is abysmal, many third rate FPS games do that. For a big budget first party game to do that is pretty bad.
So you dodge the question, what was the point of bringing it up if you don't actually know the answer?
 

BurntPork

Banned
May 12, 2011
6,808
0
0
New York
Kazerei said:
November is going to be a ridiculous month. There's over a dozen major releases I can think of, but they can't all be in the top 10. UC3 might not make it because it is a single platform title.

Assassin's Creed: Revelations
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3
Batman: Arkham City
Battlefield 3
Disney Universe
Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Just Dance 3
Halo: Combat Evolved Anniversary
Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword
LEGO Harry Potter: Years 5-7
Madden NFL 12
Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
NBA 2K12
Super Mario 3D Land
Uncharted 3
The bold definitely most likely won't make it into the top 10, and the underlined are unlikely to due to either launching before November or being a remake. I think U3 has a shot.
 

Averon

Member
Aug 27, 2008
10,060
0
1,080
Uncharted 3 will not sell less that Uncharted 2 in its debut month. The series has only gotten more popular since its U2 and, unlike Resistance, the second game didn't damaged the franchise; it did the opposite, in fact. The second game made the series more popular than ever. There is no reason to suspect Uncharted 3 will under preform.
 

Gravijah

Member
Dec 7, 2008
39,071
1
765
Florida
BurntPork said:
The bold definitely won't make it into the top 10, and the italic are unlikely to due to either launching before November or being a remake. I think U3 has a shot.

I'm dumb. fixing

so you're saying skyward sword isn't going to make it into the top 10? ok. remembering this.
 

BurntPork

Banned
May 12, 2011
6,808
0
0
New York
Averon said:
Uncharted 3 will not sell less that Uncharted 2 in its debut month. The series has only gotten more popular since its U2 and, unlike Resistance, the second game didn't damaged the franchise; it did the opposite, in fact. The second game made the series more popular than ever. There is no reason to suspect Uncharted 3 will under preform.
Nobody's saying it will. It just won't sell as much as some of the multiplat releases.
 

Biggzy

Member
Feb 21, 2011
3,413
0
0
32
Leicester UK
Loudninja said:
So you dodge the question, what was the point of bringing it up if you don't actually know the answer?

Well an average console game costs $20 million I believe. Now considering this had a 3 year development cycle and it's considered a AAA game than the development costs would probably be higher then $20 million. Also you can't discount the marketing budget which could be anything. The fact is R3 is unlikely to break even.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,612
2
1,130
bigtroyjon said:
I have no idea what development costs are but the MNF and primetime network tv show spots they did cost 6 figures each time they air an ad. MNF ad rates can run as high as 300K per spot and the season premiers are running 200K per ad.
How much has it been aired? And what is MNF, monday night fever? :) I dont live in the US.


BishopLamont said:
It really doesn't matter. 180k for the first month is abysmal, many third rate FPS games do that. For a big budget first party game to do that is pretty bad.
I took point that if Resistance 3 sells 1 million copies, to see if the game is profitable or not.

What matters for the publishers is profitability. Or how do you mean that it doesnt matter?
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
955
30
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Gravijah said:
super mario 3d land and skyward sword aren't making it into the top 10?

lol.

It's BurntPork.
...But Mario 3D Land could risk to not make the top10... if the 10th position is about 600k :p
However, Unchy 3 will debut better than Unchy 2.
I know that this November is not packed... it's something else.
But the brand grew already a lot with the passage from 1 to 2...and the 3 has even more hype than Among Thieves. And, above all, PS3 grew in penetration in USA, and this will certainly help.
 

Brazil

Living in the shadow of Amaz
May 27, 2009
26,836
2
0
São Paulo, Brasil
uol.com.br
Kazerei said:
November is going to be a ridiculous month. There's over a dozen major releases I can think of, but they can't all be in the top 10. UC3 might not make it because it is a single platform title.

Assassin's Creed: Revelations
Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3
Batman: Arkham City
Battlefield 3
Disney Universe
Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim
Just Dance 3
Halo: Combat Evolved Anniversary
Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword
LEGO Harry Potter: Years 5-7
Madden NFL 12
Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
NBA 2K12
Super Mario 3D Land
Uncharted 3
I think LEGO Harry Potter and Mario & Sonic may crush some dreams in the top 10.
 

BishopLamont

Banned
Apr 22, 2007
7,421
0
0
test_account said:
How much has it been aired? And what is MNF, monday night fever? :) I dont live in the US.



I took point that if Resistance 3 sells 1 million copies, to see if the game is profitable or not.
It probably is profitable, whether it profits or not is not the point, the point is 1 million copies is not exactly something to write home about. Many games profit, but a bomb is a bomb.
 

BurntPork

Banned
May 12, 2011
6,808
0
0
New York
Gravijah said:
so you're saying skyward sword isn't going to make it into the top 10? ok. remembering this.
Any other month, I'd put it in the top five. However, there are too many multiplat releases in November. Exclusives will struggle to get in the top 10. Plus, it's a core game on Wii releasing after Wii U has been announced. Many Zelda fans have probably sold their Wii already and will wait until Wii U to get SS. I'm thinking it'll sell ~750k at most and just miss the 10th spot.

Mpl90 said:
It's BurntPork.
...But Mario 3D Land could risk to not make the top10... if the 10th position is about 600k :p
However, Unchy 3 will debut better than Unchy 2.
I know that this November is not packed... it's something else.
But the brand grew already a lot with the passage from 1 to 2...and the 3 has even more hype than Among Thieves. And, above all, PS3 grew in penetration in USA, and this will certainly help.
3DS just doesn't have the install base.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,612
2
1,130
BishopLamont said:
It probably is profitable, whether it profits or not is not the point, the point is 1 million copies is not exactly something to write home about. Many games profit, but a bomb is a bomb.
Well, it is all relative. Depends on what the sale expectations was for the game :) But if the game is profitable, then that is the main concern for the publishers.
 

bigtroyjon

Member
Oct 25, 2007
6,664
0
0
Fairbanks, AK
test_account said:
How much has it been aired? And what is MNF, monday night fever? :) I dont live in the US.
You'd have to check the official thread and see if people posted about the commercial airing. I wasn't watching tv with a pen and a pad taking notes.

Maybe Jstevenson could help you out. He wrote this on the playstation blog.
As we lead up to Resistance 3’s launch this Tuesday, we wanted to start your holiday weekend right with the two television commercials you will be seeing for Resistance 3 over the next few weeks. These commercials will be airing during NFL games and my personal favorite, college football, as well as series premieres of some of the biggest shows on TV.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,612
2
1,130
bigtroyjon said:
You'd have to check the official thread and see if people posted about the commercial airing. I wasn't watching tv with a pen and a pad taking notes.

Maybe Jstevenson could help you out. He wrote this on the playstation blog.
Hehe, i wasnt exactly asking for exact numbers of time it aired :) I just wondered if it had aired little, average or alot. But it sounds that it had a good amount of advertising at least.
 

Zeppelin

Member
Jan 23, 2010
2,631
0
0
Averon said:
Uncharted 3 will not sell less that Uncharted 2 in its debut month. The series has only gotten more popular since its U2 and, unlike Resistance, the second game didn't damaged the franchise; it did the opposite, in fact. The second game made the series more popular than ever. There is no reason to suspect Uncharted 3 will under preform.

I wouldn't be too sure about it not selling less than UC2. UC3 has got some sick competition in November. But I would be very surprised if it didn't make the top 10.
 

EagleEyes

Member
Mar 27, 2008
2,306
0
970
BurntPork said:
The bold definitely most likely won't make it into the top 10, and the underlined are unlikely to due to either launching before November or being a remake. I think U3 has a shot.
So you're telling me that you definitely think Uncharted 3 will outsell the other console exclusives( Zelda and Halo Anniversary) in November? Interesting.
 

Kazerei

Banned
Nov 25, 2010
12,122
1
0
MikeE21286 said:
UC3 will surely be in the top 10

BurntPork said:
The bold definitely most likely won't make it into the top 10, and the underlined are unlikely to due to either launching before November or being a remake. I think U3 has a shot.

I think you're both seriously underestimating the "casual" games. LEGO games are often in the top 10, and Harry Potter is a huge brand. Disney's Epic Mickey managed to make the top 10 last December, despite being a single platform title. Given the right marketing, Disney Universe will be an even bigger hit.

EDIT: But just to be clear, I think UC3 has a shot at making the top 10, but I don't think it's a safe bet.
 

fernoca

Member
Sep 17, 2006
30,832
2
1,075
Puerto Rico
Lagspike_exe said:
Who the hell cares about whether it's in Top 10 if it does great numbers?
Yep. And you can be sure that if a game sells "great" and is not in the Top 10; their PR or someone else will make sure to mention it.

Like last year Kinect Sports and Dance Central, selling a million units each by December; even when the games never made it to the Top 10 and debuted the prior month with under 350k copies.
 

Mr. B Natural

Member
Jan 22, 2009
6,863
0
0
test_account said:
Well, it is all relative. Depends on what the sale expectations was for the game :) But if the game is profitable, then that is the main concern for the publishers.
Sales expectations don't put food on the table and budget new projects. If retail stores tell a publisher that their expectations are lower than what they predicted, well tough cookies. And just being profitable isn't good enough these days for AAA games.

It's about percentage and time in and percentage out. If a game cost 4 million to make and took 6 months to make and made 20 million total, that's awesome. If a game cost 18 million and took 100 people 2 years to make, 20 million is still a profit but a big loss in the long run. Those 100 people need more than an extra 4 million to justify its existence and the making of another game that will take 2 years. Those 100 employees could have been used to make more money over those 2 years is the conclusion...and let's not talk about those 4 or 5 year projects. That's 5 years where there is no money going in...only out.

In other words, those big projects need to make bigger money to justify their size and scope. There's an economic term for what I'm getting at but I can't recall what it is.

And next month might not have the numbers we all expect. Yes, I think it will be a hot month, as it usually is, but people don't buy 4 games in a month. They may buy a couple at most, so there is going to be a lot of funneled money, and there will most likely be losers and winners in the end. The trick is to release something with legs, so when things cool down, your project is left standing and not forgotten after the christmas mess.
 

walking fiend

Member
Apr 13, 2011
8,247
0
0
Burntpork predictions are really informative, you just need to turn them on their head and they'll mostly come true :D

I bet my right kidney that both SS and SM3DL will be in top 10, and both may do 'exceptionally' good numbers.
 

Luckyman

Banned
Apr 30, 2006
4,688
0
0
OldJadedGamer said:
Hopefully we don't see another Uncharted either. Nothing against the game but new generations call for new IP's. The reason we got Uncharted is because they let go of the Jak series. New generations are a fresh start.

Sony has moneyhatted MTV/Spike (Uncharted Reality Show + Bonus Round/GTTV), AMC and Subway. This is obviously not for just one game

But the gulf between AAAA and AAA is getting bigger then ever. Only few games sell 5M+ and more games are tanking compared to budgets
 

Sho_Nuff82

Member
Jan 2, 2007
39,630
1
0
BurntPork said:
Any other month, I'd put it in the top five. However, there are too many multiplat releases in November. Exclusives will struggle to get in the top 10. Plus, it's a core game on Wii releasing after Wii U has been announced. Many Zelda fans have probably sold their Wii already and will wait until Wii U to get SS. I'm thinking it'll sell ~750k at most and just miss the 10th spot.


3DS just doesn't have the install base.

GT5 was #8 (combined SKUs) last year @ 399k, DKCR was #6 @ 430k, Fable 3 was #5 @ 551k, and Just Dance 2 was #3 @ 664k.

The top 20 would literally have to double in sales for your prediction to make sense. Zelda is about as good a lock to make the top 10 as any game up there. My prediction for actual top 10:

1) MW3 ~ 9 million
2) AC: Revelations ~ 1.4 million
3) Zelda Skyward Sword ~ 1.2 million
4) Just Dance 3 ~ 750k
5) Skyrim ~ 650k
6) Uncharted 3 ~ 600k
7) Madden 2012 ~ 500k
8) NFS: The Run ~ 500k
9) Halo CE HD ~ 400k
10) Super Mario 3D Land ~ 400k

OOT 3D sold a little less than 300k when the 3DS was tanking, Mario should do a bit better, and it will probably explode in December. Bad Company 2 had terrible legs on PS3 and 360, I don't see BF3 doing another million in November, probably around 350k. SR3 will probably just miss the top 10.
 

Averon

Member
Aug 27, 2008
10,060
0
1,080
Zeppelin said:
I wouldn't be too sure about it not selling less than UC2. UC3 has got some sick competition in November. But I would be very surprised if it didn't make the top 10.

I find it highly improbable that U3 will sell less than U2. The series is much stronger than it was when U2 came out and the hype for U3 is at least as high as U2 was leading up to its release. I honesty don't think MW3 or AC:Revelations will take away from UC3's sales. Now, whether U3 will chart in the top ten, I can see where there may be some concern. But in terms of absolute sell-through numbers, I'm confident U3 will perform quite well.
 

MetatronM

Unconfirmed Member
Jun 7, 2004
40,237
0
0
People thinking LEGO Harry Potter won't make the top 10 in a holiday month are out of their minds.
 

Zeppelin

Member
Jan 23, 2010
2,631
0
0
Sho_Nuff82 said:
The top 20 would literally have to double in sales for your prediction to make sense. Zelda is about as good a lock to make the top 10 as any game up there. My prediction for actual top 10:

1) MW3 ~ 9 million
2) AC: Revelations ~ 1.4 million
3) Zelda Skyward Sword ~ 1.2 million
4) Just Dance 3 ~ 750k
5) Skyrim ~ 650k
6) Uncharted 3 ~ 600k
7) Madden 2012 ~ 500k
8) NFS: The Run ~ 500k
9) Halo CE HD ~ 400k
10) Super Mario 3D Land ~ 400k

I think Skyrim can do better than that. And I think Halo will do worse than that. Although that remake looks great, are people really that interested in it with all those other great games hitting in November?

Averon said:
I find it highly improbable that U3 will sell less than U2. The series is much stronger than it was when U2 came out and the hype for U3 is at least as high as U2 was leading up to its release. I honesty don't think MW3 or AC:Revelations will take away from UC3's sales. Now, whether U3 will chart in the top ten, I can see where there may be some concern. But in terms of absolute sell-through numbers, I'm confident U3 will perform quite well.

Yeah, I'm not saying it's gonna do bad or anything. I think it will be really close UC2 and that it probably will end up doing better in the long run. Well, well... only time will tell! :)
 

Sean

Banned
Jun 14, 2004
14,673
2
0
test_account said:
Well, it is all relative. Depends on what the sale expectations was for the game :) But if the game is profitable, then that is the main concern for the publishers.

Companies don't make products just to break even or be slightly profitable. They want to create mega franchises that are the next big thing.

Insomniac had a longer dev cycle this time around (3 years), huge marketing push, released in a month with absolutely no competition, had a whole month of sales and Resistance 3 still only managed to sell 180k. That's horrible, especially when you consider it's an FPS which is the most popular genre out there now.
 

Kazerei

Banned
Nov 25, 2010
12,122
1
0
BurntPork said:
Any other month, I'd put it in the top five. However, there are too many multiplat releases in November. Exclusives will struggle to get in the top 10. Plus, it's a core game on Wii releasing after Wii U has been announced. Many Zelda fans have probably sold their Wii already and will wait until Wii U to get SS. I'm thinking it'll sell ~750k at most and just miss the 10th spot.

Oh BurntPork, you so crazy!
 

Mr. B Natural

Member
Jan 22, 2009
6,863
0
0
Averon said:
I find it highly improbable that U3 will sell less than U2. The series is much stronger than it was when U2 came out and the hype for U3 is at least as high as U2 was leading up to its release. I honesty don't think MW3 or AC:Revelations will take away from UC3's sales. Now, whether U3 will chart in the top ten, I can see where there may be some concern. But in terms for absolute sell-through numbers, I'm confident U3 perform quite well.
I'm not feeling the hype for UC3. Yes, they're marketing it strongly, but UC2 turned heads. I'm not seeing heads turn this time. We'll see though. Might have a lot to do with UC2 being released in a slow season while UC3 is being caught with other games.

^ And, as someone that has absolutely zero interest in BF3, you're crazy to think it wont make the top ten.
 

Gravijah

Member
Dec 7, 2008
39,071
1
765
Florida
BurntPork said:
Any other month, I'd put it in the top five. However, there are too many multiplat releases in November. Exclusives will struggle to get in the top 10. Plus, it's a core game on Wii releasing after Wii U has been announced. Many Zelda fans have probably sold their Wii already and will wait until Wii U to get SS. I'm thinking it'll sell ~750k at most and just miss the 10th spot.

ok, saving this for later.
 

manueldelalas

Time Traveler
Mar 18, 2007
6,031
3
1,245
BurntPork said:
Any other month, I'd put it in the top five. However, there are too many multiplat releases in November. Exclusives will struggle to get in the top 10. Plus, it's a core game on Wii releasing after Wii U has been announced. Many Zelda fans have probably sold their Wii already and will wait until Wii U to get SS. I'm thinking it'll sell ~750k at most and just miss the 10th spot.
That crow you ate the other day must have been delicious...
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,612
2
1,130
Mr. B Natural said:
Sales expectations don't put food on the table and budget new projects. If retail stores tell a publisher that their expectations are lower than what they predicted, well tough cookies. And just being profitable isn't good enough these days for AAA games.

It's about percentage and time in and percentage out. If a game cost 4 million to make and took 6 months to make and made 20 million total, that's awesome. If a game cost 18 million and took 100 people 2 years to make, 20 million is still a profit but a big loss in the long run. Those 100 people need more than an extra 4 million to justify its existence and the making of another game that will take 2 years. Those 100 employees could have been used to make more money over those 2 years is the conclusion...and let's not talk about those 4 or 5 year projects. That's 5 years where there is no money going in...only out.

In other words, those big projects need to make bigger money to justify their size and scope. There's an economic term for what I'm getting at but I can't recall what it is.

And next month might not have the numbers we all expect. Yes, I think it will be a hot month, as it usually is, but people don't buy 4 games in a month. They may buy a couple at most, so there is going to be a lot of funneled money, and there will most likely be losers and winners in the end. The trick is to release something with legs, so when things cool down, your project is left standing and not forgotten after the christmas mess.
Sure, if the investment is high and the room for profit is small, then that is a big risk. This could mean that a serie doesnt get more sequels. It is in many cases very hard to know in advance exactly how a game will be received though, so many times it is almost a pure gamble. But being profitable is better than not being profitable :) If the profit is very small, at least that means getting their money back that can be used to investing in the next project. So there is still some positive things to it. That is what i mostly was thinking about.
 

Gravijah

Member
Dec 7, 2008
39,071
1
765
Florida
Jaded Alyx said:
Not that this should surprise anyone, but...this makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

just think about it, man. zelda fans, who have been waiting for zelda wii for like 5 years, sold their wiis, in anticipation of playing zelda wii. on the wii u.
 

Curufinwe

Member
May 20, 2009
31,241
2
725
BurntPork said:
Nobody's saying it will. It just won't sell as much as some of the multiplat releases.

Someone did say that in this thread a few hours ago.

Beam said:
I am saying lower than Uncharted 2. I think U2 sold around 550k. I will say U3 will sell around 300k. I predict that it will sell less than U2.
 

OldJadedGamer

Banned
Feb 28, 2006
18,281
0
0
CVG
Luckyman said:
Sony has moneyhatted MTV/Spike (Uncharted Reality Show + Bonus Round/GTTV), AMC and Subway. This is obviously not for just one game

It wasn't just for one game.

 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
955
30
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Jaded Alyx said:
..and it totally ducks out of the way of common sense and logic.

Yeah, pretty much this.
However... 180k for Resistance are low, the brand is declining pretty fast.
But Bit Trip result is something so awful I don't even know how to react. :(
 

Himself

Member
Jul 8, 2010
3,799
0
0
Mpl90 said:
cream didn't give us any number about it.
...But if Wii's performance is a sign of what we could expect from the 3DS version, I prefer to NOT knowing it EVER.

I bought one for Wii. What happened?