MikeE21286
Member
Kazerei said:
UC3 will surely be in the top 10
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NPD September 2011 Sales Results [Update 3: FIFA 12, Madden 12, Dead Island]
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
UC3 will surely be in the top 10
Uncharted 3 will not sell less that Uncharted 2 in its debut month. The series has only gotten more popular since its U2 and, unlike Resistance, the second game didn't damaged the franchise; it did the opposite, in fact. The second game made the series more popular than ever. There is no reason to suspect Uncharted 3 will under preform.
Loudninja said:
Well an average console game costs $20 million I believe. Now considering this had a 3 year development cycle and it's considered a AAA game than the development costs would probably be higher then $20 million. Also you can't discount the marketing budget which could be anything. The fact is R3 is unlikely to break even.
BishopLamont
Banned
I didn't bring up profitability.Loudninja said:
test_account
XP-39C²
How much has it been aired? And what is MNF, monday night fever?bigtroyjon said:
I dont live in the US.I took point that if Resistance 3 sells 1 million copies, to see if the game is profitable or not.BishopLamont said:
What matters for the publishers is profitability. Or how do you mean that it doesnt matter?
Gravijah said:
It's BurntPork.
...But Mario 3D Land could risk to not make the top10... if the 10th position is about 600k
However, Unchy 3 will debut better than Unchy 2.
I know that this November is not packed... it's something else.
But the brand grew already a lot with the passage from 1 to 2...and the 3 has even more hype than Among Thieves. And, above all, PS3 grew in penetration in USA, and this will certainly help.
BishopLamont
Banned
It probably is profitable, whether it profits or not is not the point, the point is 1 million copies is not exactly something to write home about. Many games profit, but a bomb is a bomb.test_account said:How much has it been aired? And what is MNF, monday night fever?
I took point that if Resistance 3 sells 1 million copies, to see if the game is profitable or not.
Any other month, I'd put it in the top five. However, there are too many multiplat releases in November. Exclusives will struggle to get in the top 10. Plus, it's a core game on Wii releasing after Wii U has been announced. Many Zelda fans have probably sold their Wii already and will wait until Wii U to get SS. I'm thinking it'll sell ~750k at most and just miss the 10th spot.Gravijah said:
3DS just doesn't have the install base.Mpl90 said:It's BurntPork.
...But Mario 3D Land could risk to not make the top10... if the 10th position is about 600k
However, Unchy 3 will debut better than Unchy 2.
I know that this November is not packed... it's something else.
But the brand grew already a lot with the passage from 1 to 2...and the 3 has even more hype than Among Thieves. And, above all, PS3 grew in penetration in USA, and this will certainly help.
test_account
XP-39C²
Well, it is all relative. Depends on what the sale expectations was for the gameBishopLamont said:
But if the game is profitable, then that is the main concern for the publishers.bigtroyjon
Member
You'd have to check the official thread and see if people posted about the commercial airing. I wasn't watching tv with a pen and a pad taking notes.test_account said:How much has it been aired? And what is MNF, monday night fever?
Maybe Jstevenson could help you out. He wrote this on the playstation blog.
SuperSonic1305
Member
Globox_82 said:
Well at least the PS3 has exclusives to not buy mirite lolololool
Mr. B Natural
Member
really holding back those software numbers this month. Not a good sign.
test_account
XP-39C²
Hehe, i wasnt exactly asking for exact numbers of time it airedbigtroyjon said:
I just wondered if it had aired little, average or alot. But it sounds that it had a good amount of advertising at least.Lagspike_exe
Member
Who the hell cares about whether it's in Top 10 if it does great numbers?
MikeE21286 said:
BurntPork said:
I think you're both seriously underestimating the "casual" games. LEGO games are often in the top 10, and Harry Potter is a huge brand. Disney's Epic Mickey managed to make the top 10 last December, despite being a single platform title. Given the right marketing, Disney Universe will be an even bigger hit.
EDIT: But just to be clear, I think UC3 has a shot at making the top 10, but I don't think it's a safe bet.
Yep. And you can be sure that if a game sells "great" and is not in the Top 10; their PR or someone else will make sure to mention it.Lagspike_exe said:
Like last year Kinect Sports and Dance Central, selling a million units each by December; even when the games never made it to the Top 10 and debuted the prior month with under 350k copies.
Mr. B Natural
Member
Sales expectations don't put food on the table and budget new projects. If retail stores tell a publisher that their expectations are lower than what they predicted, well tough cookies. And just being profitable isn't good enough these days for AAA games.test_account said:Well, it is all relative. Depends on what the sale expectations was for the game
It's about percentage and time in and percentage out. If a game cost 4 million to make and took 6 months to make and made 20 million total, that's awesome. If a game cost 18 million and took 100 people 2 years to make, 20 million is still a profit but a big loss in the long run. Those 100 people need more than an extra 4 million to justify its existence and the making of another game that will take 2 years. Those 100 employees could have been used to make more money over those 2 years is the conclusion...and let's not talk about those 4 or 5 year projects. That's 5 years where there is no money going in...only out.
In other words, those big projects need to make bigger money to justify their size and scope. There's an economic term for what I'm getting at but I can't recall what it is.
And next month might not have the numbers we all expect. Yes, I think it will be a hot month, as it usually is, but people don't buy 4 games in a month. They may buy a couple at most, so there is going to be a lot of funneled money, and there will most likely be losers and winners in the end. The trick is to release something with legs, so when things cool down, your project is left standing and not forgotten after the christmas mess.
walking fiend
Member
Burntpork predictions are really informative, you just need to turn them on their head and they'll mostly come true
I bet my right kidney that both SS and SM3DL will be in top 10, and both may do 'exceptionally' good numbers.
I bet my right kidney that both SS and SM3DL will be in top 10, and both may do 'exceptionally' good numbers.
OldJadedGamer said:
Sony has moneyhatted MTV/Spike (Uncharted Reality Show + Bonus Round/GTTV), AMC and Subway. This is obviously not for just one game
But the gulf between AAAA and AAA is getting bigger then ever. Only few games sell 5M+ and more games are tanking compared to budgets
Sho_Nuff82
Member
BurntPork said:
GT5 was #8 (combined SKUs) last year @ 399k, DKCR was #6 @ 430k, Fable 3 was #5 @ 551k, and Just Dance 2 was #3 @ 664k.
The top 20 would literally have to double in sales for your prediction to make sense. Zelda is about as good a lock to make the top 10 as any game up there. My prediction for actual top 10:
1) MW3 ~ 9 million
2) AC: Revelations ~ 1.4 million
3) Zelda Skyward Sword ~ 1.2 million
4) Just Dance 3 ~ 750k
5) Skyrim ~ 650k
6) Uncharted 3 ~ 600k
7) Madden 2012 ~ 500k
8) NFS: The Run ~ 500k
9) Halo CE HD ~ 400k
10) Super Mario 3D Land ~ 400k
OOT 3D sold a little less than 300k when the 3DS was tanking, Mario should do a bit better, and it will probably explode in December. Bad Company 2 had terrible legs on PS3 and 360, I don't see BF3 doing another million in November, probably around 350k. SR3 will probably just miss the top 10.
Zeppelin said:
I find it highly improbable that U3 will sell less than U2. The series is much stronger than it was when U2 came out and the hype for U3 is at least as high as U2 was leading up to its release. I honesty don't think MW3 or AC:Revelations will take away from UC3's sales. Now, whether U3 will chart in the top ten, I can see where there may be some concern. But in terms of absolute sell-through numbers, I'm confident U3 will perform quite well.
Sho_Nuff82 said:
I think Skyrim can do better than that. And I think Halo will do worse than that. Although that remake looks great, are people really that interested in it with all those other great games hitting in November?
Averon said:
Yeah, I'm not saying it's gonna do bad or anything. I think it will be really close UC2 and that it probably will end up doing better in the long run. Well, well... only time will tell!
test_account said:Well, it is all relative. Depends on what the sale expectations was for the game
Companies don't make products just to break even or be slightly profitable. They want to create mega franchises that are the next big thing.
Insomniac had a longer dev cycle this time around (3 years), huge marketing push, released in a month with absolutely no competition, had a whole month of sales and Resistance 3 still only managed to sell 180k. That's horrible, especially when you consider it's an FPS which is the most popular genre out there now.
Mr. B Natural
Member
I'm not feeling the hype for UC3. Yes, they're marketing it strongly, but UC2 turned heads. I'm not seeing heads turn this time. We'll see though. Might have a lot to do with UC2 being released in a slow season while UC3 is being caught with other games.Averon said:
^ And, as someone that has absolutely zero interest in BF3, you're crazy to think it wont make the top ten.
manueldelalas
Time Traveler
That crow you ate the other day must have been delicious...BurntPork said:
Jaded Alyx
Member
Not that this should surprise anyone, but...this makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.BurntPork said:
test_account
XP-39C²
Sure, if the investment is high and the room for profit is small, then that is a big risk. This could mean that a serie doesnt get more sequels. It is in many cases very hard to know in advance exactly how a game will be received though, so many times it is almost a pure gamble. But being profitable is better than not being profitableMr. B Natural said:
If the profit is very small, at least that means getting their money back that can be used to investing in the next project. So there is still some positive things to it. That is what i mostly was thinking about.Sho_Nuff82
Member
MetatronM said:
I just realized that Lego Star Wars 3 outsold Crysis 2 in March, April, and May. 0_o
alundra said:
1) WW
2) PS3 never had an open beta on the scale of COD4.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
Luckyman said:
It wasn't just for one game.
Jaded Alyx
Member
..and it totally ducks out of the way of common sense and logic.Mpl90 said:
test_account
XP-39C²
How much did Bit Trip 3DS sell?