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October 2015 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes November 10th

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
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To be fair, it was out of the top 100 on the montly charts in September and August typically sees slow sales.

I really hate using Amazon stats this way (too in depth) but I'll do it anyway to just make a point.

Xbox One in August did around 202K. The Halo 5 bundle was the top Xbox One bundle on Amazon's chart but it didn't count for that month (obviously). The second Xbox One bundle on the list is the MCC bundle.

The MCC bundle was #40 for August. The Halo 5 bundle (which again, didn't count for August) was #24. If Xbox One did 202K in August for bundles that actually counted, then what does Halo 5 bundle's position say about how it did during the same month? 50K (added to October)? 100K (added to October)? It was 16 places above the top ranked Xbox One bundle that actually counted during that month.

Hence why I feel we can't really deeply look into October's Amazon stats. Not really showing the whole picture at all in my opinion. I do feel though that October will be close thanks to PS4's price drop (and still haven't posted a prediction yet due to it).
 
Nov 3, 2014
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Let's be honest here though: if the XB1 preorders DO give the XB1 a win and it's only by a small margin, it will be seen as a moral victory for Sony. This is Halo we're talking about here.
I think many underestimate effect of price drop and fact that big multiplat games mean much more for sales than even biggest exclusives like Halo.
 
Sep 4, 2015
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I think some people are a little obsessed with winners and losers in a NPD month.

If Xbox One move a good amount of hardware Microsoft will be happy and will be a good month for them (Especially because Halo bundle at $500 must give a great profit). If PS4 sold more kudos for Sony, but this doesn't erases MS sales.
I've already gone pass the point of PS4 winning. It will happen.

As you said, I am more interested in how well Halo 5 sells and how much hardware it moves. PS4 winning isn't surprising. Halo 5 not performing well and/or X1 hardware not getting a notable boost would be surprising.
 
Sep 4, 2015
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Has Abdiel or any of the bish checked retail dudes weighed in yet?
Here you go -

Ahhhhhhh. I'm so tired.

It's only going to get worse.

Sigh. I'll add more later.

Messy. Very messy. We still have halo bundles left... Lots and lots of the game sold. It did very well. Impressive indeed. (Some shocked people left our midnight release line when they found out about no couch co-op. I was like... Come on, this isn't new news...)

Hardware? I'm still trying to check more national districts. In at least the 3 I've checked so far, ps4 > xb1. Not by immense margins, mind. But still. Leading.

But I mean. That price cut has been really nice to them.

I don't know. It was a big fuckin' seller. Still sold an absolute monster of copies in our stores. We just didn't get the same momentum around the bundles themselves for the hardware side of things. It was the standalone game we had moving big numbers.

My private observation has been that it really does seem like most of the major Halo audience has found reasons to acquire the system at some point leading up to this point. Whether at launch, just due to knowing the title is coming (These are the diehards, they saw a Halo 5 announcement at all and were instantly on board), then the fans of MS's first party stuff that were sold on Gears or Forza, etc., then the Titanfall pick ups, and then the MCC push.

Halo is still a big damn franchise. And it did really damn well, as far as I can tell. Just didn't seem to overwhelm the sudden friggin' storm of holiday frenzy that a price cut setting in just as the holidays getting started seems to do. The timing of that drop was perfect, honestly. It hit right as things are fairly quiet, so shoppers aren't really wary about hitting most stores, as the lines aren't bad, but all our prep for holiday shoppers are largely in place with the new queuing formats, etc. so it's all optimized.

I checked another few districts before I headed home tonight. It looks like across the country, most Best Buys are following that trend, where the PS4 is leading the XB1 for October. How much varies. Sometimes its higher, sometimes its a lot closer, but it is still generally a lead of some kind. There also seems to be a lot of the Halo bundles still available. To put in perspective... In over 50 stores within a 400 mile radius, none of them were sold out of the Halo bundle. None.
 

crazyprac

Member
Dec 29, 2013
2,320
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And yet here you are arguing for ms and Xbox

Lol...

On topic I still think Xbox will eek out. Anecdotally we've been playing halo most of the time... But then again most of my friends already had the system. Halo will definitely be a software mover as usual but uhhh...

We need more retail insider!
 

Boke1879

Member
Apr 25, 2013
22,005
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OK, let's not go down that route. allan-bh is one of the most objective posters in SalesGAF threads.

Yea this thread doesn't need to turn into that. Allan has always been objective. But to be fair most everyone goes into an NPD thread to see who "wins" the month.
 

Dangoesforth

Member
Nov 7, 2013
496
1
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London
[3DS] 95k
[PS4] 450k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 430k

Still think PS4 will outsell XB1 just through third party and the general strength of the console.
This will be close.
 

Philly40

Member
Sep 30, 2013
693
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Hmmm... Well, I doubt MS is in any position to be charging royalties anyway, given the state of their hardware sales on a worldwide scale relative to their competition. They'd probably be on the verge of getting abandoned hard by third parties like Nintendo did/has... which is why it's quite the mystery to me how Sony wasn't killed off during PS3's cycle. I'm guessing Sony was suspending royalty fees carte blanche just to keep third party support in those days, so it wouldn't surprise me if that's what Microsoft is having to do these days.

So yeah, I think actual, real, hard, fiat currency is being used to secure these deals, maybe even with stock/shares to sweeten the pot.


Do you have any evidence for this - it sounds flat-out nonsense to me?

Tolu is joined in the darkside.

Stop referring to yourself in the third person, the zhugex person used to do it, and where is he now?
 

Sangetsu-II

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Dec 5, 2014
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I'm assuming they increased the forecast because they didn't expect to ship 4 million last quarter. Nobody did actually, not even the most diehard Sony fanboys/fangirls.

I did, I predicted them to be 30 million shipped based on my estimations and I was damn near close kiddies! :p
 

yukianderson

Member
Feb 13, 2014
540
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Puerto Rico
A few months I don't think anyone give the PS4 a chance at wining October. Is going to be pretty shocking if the PS4 takes halo month. If they take October they will take the rest of the year unless MS does another promotion.
 
Jun 18, 2014
1,841
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[3DS] 105K
[PS4] 425K
[WIU] 68K
[XB1] 420K

Well, put it off long enough. Kept hoping for more insight or additional retailer info drop, but now I am in even more doubt than before... Both will do great, but who comes out on top and the total number is really hurting me. I think both are capable of going higher, but optimism killed my last few months, so playing it safer now.
 

EGM1966

Member
Aug 5, 2011
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How so? More next gen owners were buying Destiny on XB1 than PS4, despite the PS4 having a higher install base AND an exclusive marketing deal, the PS4 SKU pulls ahead only if you include new next gen owners, which doesn't invalidate the previous point at all.

Without including the bundles, the PS4 still has a higher install base than XB1.
Because whennlooking at total install base for Destiny the game you have to include bundles. The fact more people bought game standalone on XB1 whereas people where taking advantage of bundle only available on PA4 means you can't draw the conclusion the game sells more on XB1 or that it shows FPS inherently sell more on XB1 (which was the other point).

In short you can't ignore the bundles.
 

harrisk954

Member
Jul 11, 2014
853
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Naples, Florida
How so? More next gen owners were buying Destiny on XB1 than PS4, despite the PS4 having a higher install base AND an exclusive marketing deal, the PS4 SKU pulls ahead only if you include new next gen owners, which doesn't invalidate the previous point at all.

Without including the bundles, the PS4 still has a higher install base than XB1.

I hate when people say this. PS4 sold more Destiny, but because bundles aren't counted by NPD, the XB1 was given top spot on the NPD breakdown. I believe that Sony even came out and said itself that it sold the must copies of Destiny in its victory press release.
 

3rdamention

Member
Oct 27, 2006
7,996
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1,005
How so? More next gen owners were buying Destiny on XB1 than PS4, despite the PS4 having a higher install base AND an exclusive marketing deal, the PS4 SKU pulls ahead only if you include new next gen owners, which doesn't invalidate the previous point at all.

Without including the bundles, the PS4 still has a higher install base than XB1.


Can we end this argument?

 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
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A few months I don't think anyone give the PS4 a chance at wining October. Is going to be pretty shocking if the PS4 takes halo month. If they take October they will take the rest of the year unless MS does another promotion.

Even selling less in october, PS4 likely will be number one in november and december. Xbox One has some chance in november if crazy deals happen on BF and Sony doesn't match.
 

xtwo

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Feb 2, 2005
408
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1,385
First time doing this

[PS4] 415,000
[XB1] 380,000
[3DS] 125,000
[WIU] 85,000
 

3rdamention

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Oct 27, 2006
7,996
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Even selling less in october, PS4 likely will be number one in november and december. Xbox One has some chance in november if crazy deals happen on BF and Sony doesn't match.

Well, Sony have played a great game getting ready for November. You have September and October's Preorders for the COD PS4 Bundle and the Star Wars PS4 Bundle that will all hit in November. I feel like Microsoft is already going to be fighting an uphill battle as the month already starts. The Star Wars Bundle alone is already a huge seller if you look at the last 2 months on Amazon.


Sony has already built up a ton of momentum heading into November without even running a crazy Black Friday deal yet!



And I just saw on CAG that you can get the PS4 for $299 with one game (the one game will be one of the games in the Star Wars or Uncharted Bundles) on November 14th, 2 weeks before Black Friday. I know Sam's Club isn't pulling a lot of sales weight, but looks like you may be able to get that "crazy deal" on a PS4 this BF as well.



https://www.cheapassgamer.com/topic...ms-club-november-14th-only-includes-one-game/
 

yukianderson

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Feb 13, 2014
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Even selling less in october, PS4 likely will be number one in november and december. Xbox One has some chance in november if crazy deals happen on BF and Sony doesn't match.

That's the thing I think Sony will match MS blow for blow this year. The only thing they won't match will be another firesale. Both the Xbox one and the ps4 are going to be 299 with a game or two on black Friday. It's posible we may see the Halo special edition bundle drop in price for the left over stock. I just think the star wars and COD combination might be too much for MS to overcome to win Nov...
 

thenameDS

Member
Feb 22, 2014
672
1
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UK
Although I would like to see Xbox win this month and Halo doing really well because they deserve it. I think PS4 will take it and probably also win November and December too.

[3DS] 102k
[PS4] 450k
[WIU] 71k
[XB1] 415k
 

hodayathink

Member
Mar 13, 2013
6,450
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490
Yeah it wasn't the wisest decision but we need to see the final NPD for October to see if Amazon is correct. If they have a good amount of left over stock, can they even instruct retailer to discount it for Black Friday? I mean once its shipped, it's up to the stores to price it at their discretion? Regardless, if that is the scenario the retailers themselves are definitely going to have deals galore.

To answer this, yes they can. MS/Sony/Nintendo can tell them to drop the price/have a sale. If they couldn't, we wouldn't see the nation-wide price drops that we see on Black Friday (where every store is selling the console for cheaper, not just select ones).
 

RexNovis

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Sep 8, 2013
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I'm discounting the bundles for a reason, out of the "current" owners of next gen systems (as of Destiny's launch day, both editions), the XB1 version sold more, thus having a significantly higher attache rate.

Nah not the case. Remember that all XB1s sold Destiny release month got 1 free Retail game with purchase of which the vast majority were likely Destiny and since they were not technically a bundle they were counted separately in NPD. It basically artificially inflated their software numbers in comparison to PS4 since the PS4 bundles were not counted as a Destiny sale. Context is important.

I keep switching between who I think will win this month. I honestly can't decide. Which in itself is crazy. Never thought we would be debating who takes Halo month.