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October 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Wed., November 9th

Hi SalesGAF,

Just a quick intro... my name's Mat. I'm the new US Video Games Industry Analyst for NPD. Was in publishing for a good while at Activision and Warner in various business roles.

I've been following these threads for years and have always enjoyed reading the conversations.

Just wanted to say that I'm around if there are questions on stuff, and hopefully to learn from you all while sharing a perspective coming from parts of the industry that are generally black boxes.

Of course, I cannot divulge confidential information like HW or SW sales, any of that. I can't tell Rex what Digimon sold, nor will I be able to give rankings of titles outside the monthly top 10.

But hopefully if you're interested I can help talk trends and big picture industry stuff, that kind of thing. If that's cool then awesome. If not, that's cool too.

Just wanted to say hi. So, hi.
 

Welfare

Member
Hi SalesGAF,

Just a quick intro... my name's Mat. I'm the new US Video Games Industry Analyst for NPD. Was in publishing for a good while at Activision and Warner in various business roles.

I've been following these threads for years and have always enjoyed reading the conversations.

Just wanted to say that I'm around if there are questions on stuff, and hopefully to learn from you all while sharing a perspective coming from parts of the industry that are generally black boxes.

Of course, I cannot divulge confidential information like HW or SW sales, any of that. I can't tell Rex what Digimon sold, nor will I be able to give rankings of titles outside the monthly top 10.

But hopefully if you're interested I can help talk trends and big picture industry stuff, that kind of thing. If that's cool then awesome. If not, that's cool too.

Just wanted to say hi. So, hi.

Hello Mat!

Don't have a question right now, but it is cool to see someone from NPD watching.
 
Hello Mat!

Don't have a question right now, but it is cool to see someone from NPD watching.

These threads always have great insight. I know I'm not the only one in industry planning and forecasting that has been following the conversations over the years. Thanks for the welcome.
 
Sooo... is SCIA going into the november/december battle without any single bundle ? #arrogantsonyisback. I wondered if retail-GAF had any insight about Sony's plan.

And welcome to our NPD member of course.
 

Conduit

Banned
Hi SalesGAF,

Just a quick intro... my name's Mat. I'm the new US Video Games Industry Analyst for NPD. Was in publishing for a good while at Activision and Warner in various business roles.

I've been following these threads for years and have always enjoyed reading the conversations.

Just wanted to say that I'm around if there are questions on stuff, and hopefully to learn from you all while sharing a perspective coming from parts of the industry that are generally black boxes.

Of course, I cannot divulge confidential information like HW or SW sales, any of that. I can't tell Rex what Digimon sold, nor will I be able to give rankings of titles outside the monthly top 10.

But hopefully if you're interested I can help talk trends and big picture industry stuff, that kind of thing. If that's cool then awesome. If not, that's cool too.

Just wanted to say hi. So, hi.

Hi and welcome!

Hopefuly that you will stay here for a long time.
 

Welfare

Member
Sooo... is SCIA going into the november/december battle without any single bundle ? #arrogantsonyisback. I wondered if retail-GAF had any insight about Sony's plan.

And welcome to our NPD member of course.

I wouldn't say arrogant Sony, but rather a refocused Sony. They are focusing on the Pro right now and will probably ride current holiday momentum with the slim up to Black Friday and have a BF bundle. Then in December I can see them releasing a CoD and/or WD2 bundle in December to then become the main bundle(s) in 2017.
 
Sooo... is SCIA going into the november/december battle without any single bundle ? #arrogantsonyisback. I wondered if retail-GAF had any insight about Sony's plan.

And welcome to our NPD member of course.

I belive the only confirmed Playstation bundle for the holiday period is the FFXV Slim one, which is a little strange. You would think there's got to be a CoD bundle on the way considering how well the BO3 bundle worked for them. I'm guessing they are waiting until after Pro launches to announce their holiday bundles.
 
Hi SalesGAF,

Just a quick intro... my name's Mat. I'm the new US Video Games Industry Analyst for NPD. Was in publishing for a good while at Activision and Warner in various business roles.

I've been following these threads for years and have always enjoyed reading the conversations.

Just wanted to say that I'm around if there are questions on stuff, and hopefully to learn from you all while sharing a perspective coming from parts of the industry that are generally black boxes.

Of course, I cannot divulge confidential information like HW or SW sales, any of that. I can't tell Rex what Digimon sold, nor will I be able to give rankings of titles outside the monthly top 10.

But hopefully if you're interested I can help talk trends and big picture industry stuff, that kind of thing. If that's cool then awesome. If not, that's cool too.

Just wanted to say hi. So, hi.

Hey Mat!

Welcome to the club. Always great to have another, insightful view on things!
 

Abdiel

Member
I'll have more commentary later, as I'm at work, but my Sony rep said that they're planning on rolling out more info on holiday bundle plans after the pro hits.

Info in stages, I guess. Makes sense. I told him I thought they needed a stronger bundle than uncharted for the holidays and he seemed to agree, so we'll see what that means. He didn't actually leak anything.

I will say it does look like Xbox likely took the month across the board. Though exactly how much is what I'm trying to get a feel for.

So many goddamn skus to sift through for accurate perceptions. Sigh. C'mon ms. Such a pain.
 
I'll have more commentary later, as I'm at work, but my Sony rep said that they're planning on rolling out more info on holiday bundle plans after the pro hits.

Info in stages, I guess. Makes sense. I told him I thought they needed a stronger bundle than uncharted for the holidays and he seemed to agree, so we'll see what that means. He didn't actually leak anything.

I will say it does look like Xbox likely took the month across the board. Though exactly how much is what I'm trying to get a feel for.

So many goddamn skus to sift through for accurate perceptions. Sigh. C'mon ms. Such a pain.

I was waiting for this.

Sounds like a sizable gap this month between PS4 and XB1, likely even bigger then September.

Thanks as always Abdiel.
 

Welfare

Member
I'll have more commentary later, as I'm at work, but my Sony rep said that they're planning on rolling out more info on holiday bundle plans after the pro hits.

Info in stages, I guess. Makes sense. I told him I thought they needed a stronger bundle than uncharted for the holidays and he seemed to agree, so we'll see what that means. He didn't actually leak anything.

I will say it does look like Xbox likely took the month across the board. Though exactly how much is what I'm trying to get a feel for.

So many goddamn skus to sift through for accurate perceptions. Sigh. C'mon ms. Such a pain.

Thanks Abdiel!

If Best Buy is seeing a clear XB1 win, then it is certain that it won the month. Brick and mortar is where XB1 sales are coming from. Amazon is not representative of the market this month.
 
Hi SalesGAF,

Just a quick intro... my name's Mat. I'm the new US Video Games Industry Analyst for NPD. Was in publishing for a good while at Activision and Warner in various business roles.

I've been following these threads for years and have always enjoyed reading the conversations.

Just wanted to say that I'm around if there are questions on stuff, and hopefully to learn from you all while sharing a perspective coming from parts of the industry that are generally black boxes.

Of course, I cannot divulge confidential information like HW or SW sales, any of that. I can't tell Rex what Digimon sold, nor will I be able to give rankings of titles outside the monthly top 10.

But hopefully if you're interested I can help talk trends and big picture industry stuff, that kind of thing. If that's cool then awesome. If not, that's cool too.

Just wanted to say hi. So, hi.

Hi Mat, I have a question I always wanted to ask,

Does NPD track retail sales of US territories, like Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, American Samoa?

Or is it only Continental NA where sales are tracked?
 
Hey Abidel, do you think the % of your floorspace dedicated to hardware is bigger this year than last? How's VR moving for you?

Thanks for the thoughts.
 

centmoe

Banned
Hi SalesGAF,

Just a quick intro... my name's Mat. I'm the new US Video Games Industry Analyst for NPD. Was in publishing for a good while at Activision and Warner in various business roles.

I've been following these threads for years and have always enjoyed reading the conversations.

Just wanted to say that I'm around if there are questions on stuff, and hopefully to learn from you all while sharing a perspective coming from parts of the industry that are generally black boxes.

Of course, I cannot divulge confidential information like HW or SW sales, any of that. I can't tell Rex what Digimon sold, nor will I be able to give rankings of titles outside the monthly top 10.

But hopefully if you're interested I can help talk trends and big picture industry stuff, that kind of thing. If that's cool then awesome. If not, that's cool too.

Just wanted to say hi. So, hi.

ps4 pro... where do you see this thing going? how has retailers reacted to ps4 slim?

what was the retail industry reaction to xbox one s and scorpio being announced at the same time
 
I can't tell Rex what Digimon sold,
That's proof enough you follow SalesGAF. Welcome, stranger.

Question: We were quite happy that digital sales are now also tracked. Congrats. Nevertheless, many here aren't too happy with the lack of platform split in software charts. To be honest: We loved it.
Is there a chance to get it back?
If not: That's not your fault.
Please don't take that as impolite. As you follow the threads I guess you already heard of the issue anyway.

great insight as always, thank you.

I wouldn't say arrogant Sony, but rather a refocused Sony. They are focusing on the Pro right now and will probably ride current holiday momentum with the slim up to Black Friday and have a BF bundle. Then in December I can see them releasing a CoD and/or WD2 bundle in December to then become the main bundle(s) in 2017.
Absolutely this. They delayed enough sales by announcing the Pro. Now delaying sales further by announcing bundles would not be reasonable. New hardware is announced and early adopters will buy it. Good sales, good margin, no need for unnecessary gifts.
But if they don't announce a bundle with the marketing partnershipped everybodies favorite ego shooter on time for christmas it would be disturbing.
 

N.Domixis

Banned
Sony should have released pro earlier, now we have the perception that Xbox is catching up. Terrible move by Sony. Slim should never have existed and pro should have taken its place.
It's obvious ps4 sales continue to drop as we approach ps4pro.
 

Abdiel

Member
Hey Abidel, do you think the % of your floorspace dedicated to hardware is bigger this year than last? How's VR moving for you?

Thanks for the thoughts.

Floor space us hard to really nail down, because we haven't really hit fully holiday planograms yet. Stuff gets shifted and adjusted as product comes in. There's a lot of bundles for the ms hardware, though I think they may be less ship happy. We've got less actual stock sitting in back now. Though some stuff still sits around like the Gore fest special edition gears bundle. Lol.

As to psvr!

Really great reactions. Almost all our preorders were picked up within the first three days, across the entire surrounding districts. We are totally unable to resupply the launch bundles, but our custom bundle we started doing has had great success in moving remaining stock from stores where it was flagging. Sony has provided done more inventory, though I don't know how much they'll keep up with.

It's variable per store, but it's been solid. Though temper that with not huge numbers of inventory, though it's not just sitting there like kinects.
 
As to psvr!

Really great reactions. Almost all our preorders were picked up within the first three days, across the entire surrounding districts. We are totally unable to resupply the launch bundles, but our custom bundle we started doing has had great success in moving remaining stock from stores where it was flagging. Sony has provided done more inventory, though I don't know how much they'll keep up with.

It's variable per store, but it's been solid. Though temper that with not huge numbers of inventory, though it's not just sitting there like kinects.

Thanks for the PSVR insights. I am really curious how sales will develop next year.
 
LOL @ my tag change. Nice.

Does NPD track retail sales of US territories, like Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, American Samoa?

I don't know. I've asked smarter people than I and will update when I hear back.

edit: Apparently the answer is no. Domestic US only.

That's proof enough you follow SalesGAF. Welcome, stranger.

Thank you.

Question: We were quite happy that digital sales are now also tracked. Congrats. Nevertheless, many here aren't too happy with the lack of platform split in software charts. To be honest: We loved it.
Is there a chance to get it back?

I personally like the rankings too. So, a bit of a peak behind the curtain. A number of publishers participate in what's called the Digital Leader Panel. Everyone on that panel has to be in agreement on what is included in what is called the media release, which is what has those top 10 titles included. Because of the sample of participating publishers and 1st parties on the digital side, those platform rankings could actually end up being quite misleading. Once a level of participation is reached where the platform rankings are more reliable the topic will be readdressed. Hope that helps.

ps4 pro... where do you see this thing going? how has retailers reacted to ps4 slim?

what was the retail industry reaction to xbox one s and scorpio being announced at the same time

Good questions. Not sure I'm in the best position to answer them, however. I will say that the market response to the iterative console approach is highly anticipated and will be watched closely indeed. Personally, I'm optimistic and think the approach may help reduce development cost risk while providing for incremental tech upgrades for consumers. As always, it's up to consumers to have the final say.

Hi Mat, I have a question. We already know that NPD is not going to differentiate between PS4 Slim and Pro numbers, everything will be "PS4". But what about PSVR and other VR sets. Are you tracking those as well or is it planned to do so in the future? Sorry in advance if I asked something already well-known.

The by SKU detail of the hardware (differentiating PS4 Slim, Pro and OG PS4) is included in the hardware feed for subscribers. But yes, all roll up as being part of the PS4 family.

PSVR will be tracked in the Accessories feed as it requires a games console to operate. Other types of VR (like Samsung Gear for example) are tracked in other lines of business, at least for the time being.
 

Elandyll

Banned
These threads always have great insight. I know I'm not the only one in industry planning and forecasting that has been following the conversations over the years. Thanks for the welcome.
Hi Mat! Welcome!

I'll have more commentary later, as I'm at work, but my Sony rep said that they're planning on rolling out more info on holiday bundle plans after the pro hits.

Info in stages, I guess. Makes sense. I told him I thought they needed a stronger bundle than uncharted for the holidays and he seemed to agree, so we'll see what that means. He didn't actually leak anything.

I will say it does look like Xbox likely took the month across the board. Though exactly how much is what I'm trying to get a feel for.

So many goddamn skus to sift through for accurate perceptions. Sigh. C'mon ms. Such a pain.
Darn, if even at Bestbuy which didn't have the big $249 offers on OG XB1 (Gamestop/ Walmart) there is XB1 domination, it might be more lopsided than I would have thought possible.
Do you have the sense that the PS4 is underperforming due to Pro anticipation, or is the XB1S doing that much better than average?
 

allan-bh

Member
I'll have more commentary later, as I'm at work, but my Sony rep said that they're planning on rolling out more info on holiday bundle plans after the pro hits.

Info in stages, I guess. Makes sense. I told him I thought they needed a stronger bundle than uncharted for the holidays and he seemed to agree, so we'll see what that means. He didn't actually leak anything.

I will say it does look like Xbox likely took the month across the board. Though exactly how much is what I'm trying to get a feel for.

So many goddamn skus to sift through for accurate perceptions. Sigh. C'mon ms. Such a pain.

Can you give impressions about Battlefield 1, Titanfall 2 and Gears 4 sales?
 
Of course, I cannot divulge confidential information like HW or SW sales, any of that. I can't tell Rex what Digimon sold, nor will I be able to give rankings of titles outside the monthly top 10.

But hopefully if you're interested I can help talk trends and big picture industry stuff, that kind of thing. If that's cool then awesome. If not, that's cool too.

Just wanted to say hi. So, hi.

Hi Mat, I have a question. We already know that NPD is not going to differentiate between PS4 Slim and Pro numbers, everything will be "PS4". But what about PSVR and other VR sets. Are you tracking those as well or is it planned to do so in the future? Sorry in advance if I asked something already well-known.
 

allan-bh

Member
Hi Mat, I have a question. We already know that NPD is not going to differentiate between PS4 Slim and Pro numbers, everything will be "PS4". But what about PSVR and other VR sets. Are you tracking those as well or is it planned to do so in the future? Sorry in advance if I asked something already well-known.

What?

Any hardware SKU has specific numbers in NPD report.
 

Trup1aya

Member
Sony should have released pro earlier, now we have the perception that Xbox is catching up. Terrible move by Sony. Slim should never have existed and pro should have taken its place.
It's obvious ps4 sales continue to drop as we approach ps4pro.

1) who has this perception? 2) why would anyone care about someone having this perception?

Slim just hasn't been a very compelling refresh. But Pro replacing PS4 is a laughable concept. You don't refresh your base model with one that costs more.
 

N.Domixis

Banned
1) who has this perception? 2) why would anyone care about someone having this perception?

Slim just hasn't been a very compelling refresh. But Pro replacing PS4 is a laughable concept. You don't refresh your base model with one that costs more.
It won't replace but it is taking sales away from the regular ps4s.
 
1) who has this perception? 2) why would anyone care about someone having this perception?

Slim just hasn't been a very compelling refresh. But Pro replacing PS4 is a laughable concept. You don't refresh your base model with one that costs more.

Slim was no refresh. Slim was a cost cutter. It's the opposite of XboxOne S. Because they did not need a refresh. They can now lower price whenever they feel the urge.
Now with the Pro they have a budget and a premium version, playing the same software. That's a dream for business strategists.
 

Kagari

Crystal Bearer
Sony should have released pro earlier, now we have the perception that Xbox is catching up. Terrible move by Sony. Slim should never have existed and pro should have taken its place.
It's obvious ps4 sales continue to drop as we approach ps4pro.

Hope you realize how lopsided sales are in November and December as a whole compared to the rest of the year.
 

Trup1aya

Member
It won't replace but it is taking sales away from the regular ps4s.

What difference does it make to you if someone buys a regular PS4 in October, or waits a few weeks and gets a pro in November? It's still the sale of one console. It's not like people would have double dipped if Sony released the pro closer to the announcement.
 

Kagari

Crystal Bearer
Yes, but we can all agree slim was a terrible choice. No reason for it to exist with pro being so close to releasing.

But it wasn't. I know this is NPD but in Japan the slim boosted console sales quite a bit and going into the holiday it'll be the device Sony discounts and bundles at Black Friday for the cheap entry option.
 

Trup1aya

Member
Yes, but we can all agree slim was a terrible choice. No reason for it to exist with pro being so close to releasing.

The slim exists because it saves on production costs. which means more profit per unit now, and more susceptible to price cuts later. It's also the PS4 product that the masses will mostly purchase going forward since will always be cheaper than the Pro.

It's aimed at the gamer who has yet to buy a PS4 console because they are price concious... that's an target that the Pro can't hit.
 

N.Domixis

Banned
The slim exists because it saves on production costs. which means more profit per unit. It's also the PS4 product that the masses will mostly purchase going forward since will always be cheaper than the Pro.
Who knows, IMHO I predict pro will outsell slim this holiday.
 

Rolf NB

Member
Yes, but we can all agree slim was a terrible choice. No reason for it to exist with pro being so close to releasing.
Cost makes price makes volume requires margin.
Agree with yourself. The slim replaces the regular-ass PS4 and is going to be the volume product.
 
Sony should have released pro earlier, now we have the perception that Xbox is catching up. Terrible move by Sony. Slim should never have existed and pro should have taken its place.
It's obvious ps4 sales continue to drop as we approach ps4pro.

Perception vs reality, the reality being that they are have been selling more than twice as many consoles worldwide and, given their financial situation, are more interested in making profits right now. The main reason why the Xbox One was able to claim the first spot these last couple of months is because of the heavy discounts that Microsoft has decided to engage in. Sony should be foolich to do so before the promotional season...
 

Trup1aya

Member
Who knows, IMHO I predict pro will outsell slim this holiday.

Doubtful. It would be pretty unprecedented for the higher priced option to be most popular. If I had to guess most of the people who are willing to spend $400 on a console have already done so.

Few people would wait 3 years to enter a console gen, only to pay the same price as when the generation started.

I imagine that many of the people who opt for a Ps4Pro will be people who are upgrading. Where as the slim will be your price concious and impulse buy. The slim is the volume product. The Pro is for the enthusiast.
 

TheOfficeMut

Unconfirmed Member
I really don't see the Pro selling well at all. Just a hunch. I haven't been following the gaming side for months due to the election so I'm not sure what the story is with that console, but I haven't seen very effective ads and with a PS4 Slim juxtaposed to the Pro, I don't see how it's going to sell better when the hardware differences between the two are negligible to the casual person and one is $100 cheaper.
 
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