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[Dragon]

You're a joke. I don't expect this to be a huge market for XB1 and even if it was it wouldn't overcome PS4 Europe+Japan. When all is said and done I expect PS4 to have a 40m+ lead WW. I don't know where you got the idea I'm some rabbid irrational fanboy but you need to take a look in the mirror.

If nothing else you're incredibly defensive which has its own perks for other posters .

 

[JP]

Wow, if that retailer is as big as is suggested here that is a pretty poor number.

 

[Miles X]

If nothing else you're incredibly defensive which has its own perks for other posters .

It's annoying having to rebut this stalker tho. But I just wanted to clarify I don't think the China market will be big for XB1 and I think 5m is way unrealistic even if they ship through the first 100k shipment.

 

[statham]

Im impressed. And they have Smite coming which should help some.

 

[Silky]

F2P, MMOs,FPS and MOBA. Basketball, football and baseball.

RPGS?

AHAHAHAHAHAHA!

...you just said MMOs. Wouldnt that include MMORPGs? Like Neverwinter?

 

[Neuromancer]

As a great man once said, China don't care.

 

[Dreamgazer]

I mentioned the government's lifetime approved amount because I figured it would also limit the initial shipment. But on that very quote I also said possibly sell out of their initial shipment, to which you replied:

I never said anything about their initial shipment being the same as their lifetime sales amount. I mean, that would've been a megaton if they were to ship 5M in the first week.

Yeah, and I'm just trying to point out that we have no idea if the pre-order is "ok" or "bad" relative to an unknown initial shipment amount. Which obviously isn't going to be 5M.

Do we know how much MS are going to ramp up their marketing efforts tho? Don't pre orders usually spike just before launch?

We don't know.
As for pre-order spiking, it's hard to say. People are still debating whether to get the official version or imported version. Whether the box's region lock is going to be software or IP-based, etc etc.
100% pre-order spike for individual retailers is hard to believe though.

imagine you're coming from a PC only environment. you're used to playing whatever you want, however you want. your typical gaming experience involves a litany of free to play games that half the country logs on to simultaneously while having an entire library of supporting programs running just an alt-tab away.

then some american company rocks up and wants to charge you half the price of a new PC for a box with a relatively microscopic library of expensive games which doesn't even include the basics like LoL. it also has underwhelming specs across the board, about as much application support as the average toaster, you have to pay a monthly fee to play online and it only supports a single input device which is garbage for most genres you play.

Why do you make it sound like Chinese gamers are one track minded individuals who want nothing but play MOBAs?

There is a (niche) demand for hardcore single player and non-MMO games in the East-Asia countries. Especially since almost everything has become MMOs starting from the 2000s.

I had the thought this is the first time MS releases a home console in China, and I thought first time for Sony, correct me if wrong, in that case.. how is that good or bad?

We don't know.

Non of that really matters when the Chinese government has already set a lifetime sales restriction of 5 million. At the absolute best scenario we already know that it can't be any higher than 5 million.

Import quotas on hardware (cars, tools, machinery) has always been able to be raised year to year. It's the media stuff (films, music) that rarely see their quota raised.

 

[down 2 orth]

Seems like one of the smaller sites actually

http://www.techinasia.com/china-ecommerce-spending-hits-74-billion-dollars-q1-2014/

I'm sorry, but Shadow is right and you're either twisting his words or you misread his post.

Suning is one of the largest retailers in China. Its not one of the largest online retailers (and that graph looks like it was pulled out of someone's ass by the way) but he never said that. Everyone here uses Taobao anyway.

Still, I think that given what American McGee said, and I agree with him 100%, those numbers are actually not that bad.

 

[Chairmanchuck]

I'm sorry, but Shadow is right and you're either twisting his words or you misread his post.

Suning is one of the largest retailers in China. Its not one of the largest online retailers (and that graph looks like it was pulled out of someone's ass by the way) but he never said that. Everyone here uses Taobao anyway.

Still, I think that given what American McGee said, and I agree with him 100%, those numbers are actually not that bad.

Actually I think more people in China use JD, at least if they buy more expensive things, so you can be sure that you wont get any fake stuff.
Even on TMall you can get fake stuff pretty easily.

And lol@the XBone Price. Sorry, but with such a price: Good luck in China and byebye...

Still, I think that given what American McGee said, and I agree with him 100%, those numbers are actually not that bad.

I still think people should know why piracy is so big in China. Its not just because everyone wants something for free, but because people grow up with watching free movies and listening to free songs, because Tencent and co. pay WB, Sony each year who knows how much money, so they can provide movies and the likes for free on their plattforms.

Another reason are the prices. Sorry, but if you would offer Games for 500RMB, no one would buy them for that price. The prices need to be lower for it so people will buy it.
CDs, Bluray and DVDs are still sold well, but thats because the prices are about 5-6$ for a new CD or DVD, 3-4$ for older titles.

No one would pay like 20$ for a DVD like we would do it here in Germany.

 

[ghst]

There is a (niche) demand for hardcore single player and non-MMO games in the East-Asia countries.

fortunately, PC caters for all of those things as well.

i'm sure there is a niche of that niche that has a strong craving for whatever cinematic first party mediocrity everyone is changing their GAF avatars to that month, but neither console is going to blow any doors off.

 

[li bur]

Those penchant for 16 surely is odd. Is that somehow related to feng shui or something like that?

 

[weeeeezy]

16k is not bad at all for just one retailer. Do preorders get you any bonuses? Sorry if it's already been mentioned.

 

[down 2 orth]

Another reason are the prices. Sorry, but if you would offer Games for 500RMB, no one would buy them for that price.

Totally. Even folks with money to burn are going to be hard pressed to spend several hundred RMB for a game when the going rate for last gen was 5 RMB.

 

[Chobel]

16k is not bad at all for just one retailer. Do preorders get you any bonuses? Sorry if it's already been mentioned.

Day one edition bonuses, I guess

Microsoft and BesTV are also delighted to offer a special Day One limited edition console which includes Kinect for Xbox One, more games and exclusive offers such as:

A limited-edition commemorative China Day One controller;
Day One Achievement for your Xbox Live profile;
Kinect Sports Rivals, Forza Motorsport 5: Racing Game of the Year as well as the Neverwinter Online Commemorative Edition Pack, and Powerstar Golf with in-game credit

 

[Curufinwe]

It's annoying having to rebut this stalker tho. But I just wanted to clarify I don't think the China market will be big for XB1 and I think 5m is way unrealistic even if they ship through the first 100k shipment.

Remembering that you were the guy who flipped his lid when a site claimed the PS3 and 360 were equal in worldwide sales isn't really stalking.

 

[Naughty_Doge]

Well, Microsoft PR can say they shipped 5M consoles in China and call it a day.

 

[tfur]

Remembering that you were the guy who flipped his lid when a site claimed the PS3 and 360 were equal in worldwide sales isn't really stalking.

Yeah, I am pretty sure most regulars remember this... It was fascinating times.

In any case, someone needs to man the chalkboard for China saving the Xbone.

 

[Maximilian Kolbe]

According to Perfect World,MS think the pre-order numbers met their expectations at Sept 5

So yeah i don't think MS predict it will sell a lot,at least not in short time

 

[Banjo-Kazooie]

China has the biggest population in the world?

And?

 

[KennyLinder]

China don't care.

 

[blakep267]

According to Perfect World,MS think the pre-order numbers met their expectations at Sept 5

So yeah i don't think MS predict it will sell a lot,at least not in short time

Well they predicted 100k. I have no idea how well it has been selling, but maybe they reached it. It's not going to blow the doors off of anything but it's a solid start

 

[Dragonborn]

Seems alright. I still don't see China doing much for these consoles, especially the X1.

 

[Maximilian Kolbe]

Well they predicted 100k. I have no idea how well it has been selling, but maybe they reached it. It's not going to blow the doors off of anything but it's a solid start

100k seems is for this year,not just launch week

 

[pubba]

Well Suning retail stores are Definitely putting some effort in. I've been to 3 different Suning stores in my city, and every AV department has the Xbox one unveiling video showing (in Chinese) . The video is on loop and displaying on all the display TV that are setup. To be honest, it looking pretty cool and I was interested until i saw the price and found out it was region locked to only Chinese released games. It's about $700 usd. You can get a grey market Xbox one for about $60 more than USA retail price.

 

[Dreamgazer]

Latest rumored number from a9vg:

I have no idea how they confirmed offline and MS online store numbers.
Again, chart does not include all retailers. Amazon, 5 star, wal-mart, etc #s are not available.

 

[tokyobanana]

I'm excited at China being a formal market. All previous purchases came mostly from Hong Kong on the black market.

Sony will dominate China console gaming unless a local competitor appears. Wonder when PS4 will launch in China.

 

[Steverulez]

Again, chart does not include all retailers. Amazon, 5 star, wal-mart, etc #s are not available.

Are any of those likely to provide a decent amount of sales or smaller like Newegg China...?

 

[MaulerX]

Yeah, and I'm just trying to point out that we have no idea if the pre-order is "ok" or "bad" relative to an unknown initial shipment amount. Which obviously isn't going to be 5M.

You keep beating a dead horse here. Why keep driving the point that the initial shipment isn't going to be 5M? No one even remotely suggested that. That's in the "no shit Sherlock!" territory. Come on now.

 

[Dreamgazer]

You keep beating a dead horse here. Why keep driving the point that the initial shipment isn't going to be 5M? No one even remotely suggested that. That's in the "no shit Sherlock!" territory. Come on now.

That's...the point?

I am simply saying that we don't know whether the numbers are good or bad, since we don't know the initial shipment numbers. However, that initial shipment numbers certainly won't be 5 million (the only number we know in terms of how many units can be sold), which no one believes in (this is just a general statement not directing at you.)

I'm not sure what you're mad about.

edit: Are you thinking that when I originally quoted you on here: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=128718857&postcount=107
That I'm bolding the initial shipment part because I think you're claiming 5M as the initial shipment?
We both know that's not realistic.
I bolded that part for the fact that we don't know what their initial numbers are.

 

[Dreamgazer]

fortunately, PC caters for all of those things as well.

i'm sure there is a niche of that niche that has a strong craving for whatever cinematic first party mediocrity everyone is changing their GAF avatars to that month, but neither console is going to blow any doors off.

PC games caters for all of those things if it comes in the language that you're comfortable in reading in. Let me know how exciting your PC gaming will be if 90% of the games are only available in Chinese, Spanish and whatever other language you're not native to. And then we go into this loop of "oh hey, how come I don't see these East-Asian gamers talking about Bioshock Infinite? WELL IT MUST BE BECAUSE THEY ONLY WANT MOBAs."

Of course, consoles aren't doing much localization either, which is why interest are generally low anyway. However, it's still better than PC at this point since the platform holders are willing to pay up for their first party localizations. That and the rare JRPGs

 

[Toemon]

People are confused or/and not really looking or paying attention so let me break this down for you:

First of all, population has nothing to do with anything.Especially in a country with many districts that are near or at poor class and/or harsh working conditions and/or hours. This
APplies to in the bigger cities as well some of it.

2nd, one B tierish popular store having 16k preorders is pretty good. I would say at the least 20k or more will be sold at that one store alone. It also seems like China likes kinect atleast off assumption of the preorder figures above. There are still stores we don't know any numbers to. If the others show similar numbers I would say its 100k plus out the gate alone. Could be even more!.

Its interesting how MS's "vision people don't understand" did not get to China or at least so it seems. It appears ms messaged the device better in China and they "seem" to be interested in it. Could be an advantage.

The real question is how will it do after launch. It at least appears they are treating China more as a tier 1 or 1.5 country so I think they will publish the same big games and features over there tier 1 countries usually get.

Id put my guess by Jan 1st the lowest they may get is around 400k, with the highest maybe around a million if they actually push the console after launch. We will see what they will do over there.

 

[Shin-Ra]

People are confused or/and not really looking or paying attention so let me break this down for you:

Still making crazy predictions.

They have a better chance because there are no competition and Microsoft is not just grabbing niche games, and rushed next gen games that bomb, or spending money for partner ships with no marketing, with the competition, even early PS3, kicking their butts with more highy received (japanese) games, the Wii pulling in pretty much the rest of whatever audience was left.

Does that mean they will win? Maybe, maybe not, but they have a better chance of keeping up at least. I can see wii U and Ps4 falling to the 1k easily around 2016 at the current pacing. It could be a sales comparison such as: Xbox One: 2 million, PS4: 4.5 Million, Wii U: 7 million. The fact those numbers are not to crazy just shows how bad it currently is over there and how no consoles are moving. When everything is static, that's probably the best chance.

 

[Guymelef]

Still making crazy predictions.

Lol.

 

[Dreamgazer]

Still making crazy predictions.

They're not predictions. They're "examples".

 

[Toemon]

Still making crazy predictions.

Theres not one crazy prediction in there. Thats why you didn't address anything. Not to mention those are not Japanese predictions, and it was said numerous times in that very thread but some people like talking, what can you do.

 

[Toemon]

They're not predictions. They're "examples".

USually when someone makes a prediction they uh, make a prediction.

As for this thread to avoid detailing, 100k out the gate actually is by prediction and is completely possible. Strong pushes could get it around 400k at the list assuming they care. Maybe more with deals and strong promotion.

 

[tronic307]

Interesting development. Maybe this will pave the way for console gaming to really catch on in China. I know the console market is shrinking in the established territories, but arcades still thrive in China, disposable income is rising. Maybe the home console revolution could happen again there?

 

[SURGEdude]

I suspect whichever box gets hacked to allow backups first will do best in China. Piracy is king there based on my experience.

 

[Cornbread78]

Was Sony ever approved to sell in China? I wonder what kind of reaction China would give the two going head to head.

 

[tokyobanana]

Was Sony ever approved to sell in China? I wonder what kind of reaction China would give the two going head to head.

Sony teamed up with a local Chinese company, Oriental Pearl or something.

There was a local Chinese survey done for this a few months ago, PS4 about tripled XBONE in reception.

We'll see what happens soon enough.

 

[Dreamgazer]

USually when someone makes a prediction they uh, make a prediction.

As for this thread to avoid detailing, 100k out the gate actually is by prediction and is completely possible. Strong pushes could get it around 400k at the list assuming they care. Maybe more with deals and strong promotion.

I'm referring to your Japan sales "examples" (which is what you called it.

There's also no need to predict 100K when there are already news + estimated pre-orders about it hitting 100k a few posts up...

You're basing 400K on what?

 

[Dreamgazer]

Was Sony ever approved to sell in China? I wonder what kind of reaction China would give the two going head to head.

Sony claims they're planning to launch later this year, early next.

Another thing people don't realize:

MS partnered with BesTV.
BesTV is a subsidiary of Shanghai Media Group (SMG).
Shanghai Media Group is a subsidiary of Shanghai Media & Entertainment Group (SMEG.)

Sony partnered with Shanghai Oriental Pearl Group
Shanghai Oriental Pearl Group is a subsidiary of Shanghai Media & Entertainment Group (SMEG.)

They're pretty much sharing the same retail and entertainment channels.
I doubt they even had a choice in terms of picking their partners.

So similar to the relationship of Shogakukan & Shueisha, the parent company (government) wins either way.

 

[Nightengale]

Interesting development. Maybe this will pave the way for console gaming to really catch on in China. I know the console market is shrinking in the established territories, but arcades still thrive in China, disposable income is rising. Maybe the home console revolution could happen again there?

What interesting development?

A market of 500+ million gamers ( 250+ PC, 280+ mobile ) with an annual revenue of over 13 billion dollars, and growing at a massive rate.

By comparison, the pre-order numbers that we're entertaining now? 0.0002% of the China's gaming market.

 

[Cornbread78]

Sony teamed up with a local Chinese company, Oriental Pearl or something.

There was a local Chinese survey done for this a few months ago, PS4 about tripled XBONE in reception.

We'll see what happens soon enough.

Sony claims they're planning to launch later this year, early next.

Nice, hopefully, we get more details on that launch as well. You would think Sony would leverage their SOE games to mesh with the Chinese market. Other than Warframe, does MS have any existing f2p games they could leverage?

 

[wapplew]

Was Sony ever approved to sell in China? I wonder what kind of reaction China would give the two going head to head.

Let's see how much games announced at pre tgs conference will get localize at Asia focus conference later.
If P5, Ys, D5, dragons Quest heroes and yakuza 0 are on that list, it will be biggest megaton for Sony.

 

[Toemon]

I literally said I was talking about that thread what

I'm referring to your Japan sales "examples" (which is what you called it.

There's also no need to predict 100K when there are already news + estimated pre-orders about it hitting 100k a few posts up...

You're basing 400K on what?

I literally said I was talking about that thread, what?

Anyway, 400k is the least end of year estimate. It might hit that by Jan 1st if theres a push or mire. From what it seems ms is treating China more toward tier 1 then other recent and upcoming launches.

 

[Nightengale]

Nice, hopefully, we get more details on that launch as well. You would think Sony would leverage their SOE games to mesh with the Chinese market. Other than Warframe, does MS have any existing f2p games they could leverage?

Planetside 2 wasn't that well received in China.

Everquest Next is apparently generating a lot of interest from the Chinese market, but that's like 2016/7, LOL.

If anything, Sony's killer app for China is... Final Fantasy XIV : A Realm Reborn.

 

[Toemon]

What interesting development?

A market of 500+ million gamers ( 250+ PC, 280+ mobile ) with an annual revenue of over 13 billion dollars, and growing at a massive rate.

By comparison, the pre-order numbers that we're entertaining now? 0.0002% of the China's gaming market.

What does this even mean? The two are not even comparable.

 

[Nightengale]

What does this even mean? The two are not even comparable.

For console gaming to catch on in China, ( aka have relevance in the market-place ), it needs to have a growth of over 200-500% annually to match and not be dwarfed out by the meteoric growth of PC/Mobile in the gaming space.

I'm not saying consoles won't have a niche in China, but catching on is a hilarious statement. It's like saying Vita will catch on in America.

 

[RespectThySole]

Nice, hopefully, we get more details on that launch as well. You would think Sony would leverage their SOE games to mesh with the Chinese market. Other than Warframe, does MS have any existing f2p games they could leverage?

Neverwinter comes with every Xbox One in China.