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Pachter - Next gen is last gen; projected console sales figures; Xbox to win next gen

Wario64

works for Gamestop (lol)
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From @geoffkeighley



 

Coolwhip

Banned
Hahah.... Not only could anyone from gaf pull those slides from their behind, why is he expecting growth? Ah right because he is akways wrong.
 

Meelow

Banned
Kinda funny how the Wii U slides are like "Yeah...Just Nintendo"

While PS4 is like "OMG ram!!!!"

And Xbox 720 is like "multimedia"
 

Drakeon

Member
Hahah.... Not only could anyone from gaf pull those slides from their behind, why is he expecting growth? Ah right because he is akways wrong.

Why is growth unreasonable to expect? We're not judging all of next gen based on Wii U sales are we?
 

guek

Banned
Personally I find it unlikely that the console gaming market will grow rather than shrink but only time will tell I suppose.

And I'd also like to say that projections this far in advance before the generation comes into full swing are almost never accurate.
 

McHuj

Member
So if his sales scenario proves true, both MS and Sony will abandon consoles after each next-gen systems sells almost 100m units. ok. that makes sense.

The only way the next consoles are the last consoles is if they all bomb.
 

Ein Bear

Member
I really want to know where to send my application in for an analyst job. I bet I could spout bullshit just as well as Pachter.
 

AZ Greg

Member
Hahah.... Not only could anyone from gaf pull those slides from their behind, why is he expecting growth? Ah right because he is akways wrong.

Growth?

If you put this generation's LTDs together you get 247 million. If you combine his predictions for the upcoming generation you get 240 million. And that is using the high end of all his predictions.
 
"Huge RAM makes innovation likely"

This is a weird statement especially considering that most of the games on PS4 will be multiplatform which will be on the system with less RAM and thus probably won't take advantage of it. And having a lot of RAM doesn't change the economic risk of making a risky title. I'm not sure I get where he's coming from with this...
 

Kayhan

Member
"Huge RAM makes innovation likely"

This is a weird statement especially considering that most of the games on PS4 will be multiplatform which will be on the system with less RAM and thus probably won't take advantage of it. And having a lot of RAM doesn't change the economic risk of making a risky title. I'm not sure I get where he's coming from with this...

8GB DDR5 RAM means that PS4 games will be 240 fps.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Hahah.... Not only could anyone from gaf pull those slides from their behind, why is he expecting growth? Ah right because he is akways wrong.

He's predicting a modest decline in total consoles sold. Can you at least do the math?
 

Coolwhip

Banned
Why is growth unreasonable to expect? We're not judging all of next gen based on Wii U sales are we?

Because if you take away the Wii anomality there was a big decline this gen compared to last. Now in a world with a lot more entertainment options, any sensible person would expect a decline in the coming gen. But not Pachter.
 
Was just going to post this. He also thinks that next-gen games are going to be priced at $70.

https://twitter.com/geoffkeighley/status/310527646742216705


His LTD predictions seem silly (too high). If the next-gen console LTDs are that, then why would it be the final generation? Makes no sense since it would like this generation.

The LTDs are that high because their lives are indefinite, i.e. they'll hit 85-95 million because they'll be the only consoles for 15 years +.

Its not that they'll sell so well and thus won't be the last generation, but rather since they're the last generation the will sell very well.
 
He predicts next gen will do better than current gen but next gen will be the last gen because wii U is selling bad.

WHICH IS IT PACHTER? MAKE UP YOUR MIND.

Sony is gona sell 85million consoles and then just say ok we'll stop now.

DERP
 

mAcOdIn

Member
Personally I find it unlikely that the console gaming market will grow rather than shrink but only time will tell I suppose.

And I'd also like to say that projections this far in advance before the generation comes into full swing are almost never accurate.
Well, in fairness, Patcher's calling for it to shrink too.

The increased ltd sales of the PS4 and "Durango" are coming at the expense of sales of the Wii U in contrast to the high sales of the Wii. There's about 19 million sales, going from their best case estimate, that they think won't happen in comparison to last generation(or this one if you wanna say that).
 

Thoraxes

Member
Because if you take away the Wii anomality there was a big decline this gen compared to last. Now in a world with a lot more entertainment options, any sensible person would expect a decline in the coming gen. But not Pachter.

I was assuming everyone will experience overall lower sales everywhere.
 

Cheebo

Banned
Hahah.... Not only could anyone from gaf pull those slides from their behind, why is he expecting growth? Ah right because he is akways wrong.

Well its not really growth. He shows WiiU dropping more than half of Wii's installed based.

Using his numbers PS3+360+Wii is less than WiiU+PS4+720.
 

Massa

Member
"Huge RAM makes innovation likely"

This is a weird statement especially considering that most of the games on PS4 will be multiplatform which will be on the system with less RAM and thus probably won't take advantage of it. And having a lot of RAM doesn't change the economic risk of making a risky title. I'm not sure I get where he's coming from with this...

Xbox and PS4 will both have 8GB.

He predicts next gen will do better than current gen but next gen will be the last gen because wii U is selling bad.

WHICH IS IT PACHTER? MAKE UP YOUR MIND.

Sony is gona sell 85million consoles and then just say ok we'll stop now.

DERP

Keep in mind you're just looking at a couple of slides and not the actual presentation.
 

guek

Banned
Well, in fairness, Patcher's calling for it to shrink too.

The increased ltd sales of the PS4 and "Durango" are coming at the expense of sales of the Wii U in contrast to the high sales of the Wii. There's about 19 million sales, going from their best case estimate, that they think won't happen in comparison to last generation(or this one if you wanna say that).

Yeah I realize that but I'm not really counting Wii in this case.

I suppose I should have specified the hardcore gaming market. Clearly much of the wii casual market has moved on. I just don't see the PS4/Durango doing that much better than their predecessors.
 

10k

Banned
Those numbers are almost as good as gen 7 and probably as high as gen 6. Gen 9 will occur. Whether all 3 console manufacturers are going to be there is the question.
 

DjRoomba

Banned
Why does Pachter keep predicting doom for Nintendo, taking it back, then doing it again?
I really doubt Wii U will sell worse than Ps4/Durango and I doubt it will be Nintendo's last console. Sony/Ms's last consoles? I think that could be quite possible, but I am sure Nintendo who have a dedicated hardware development team certainly aren't done yet
 

BasilZero

Member
Those figures seem a bit believable but I would lower the PS4/Next Xbox numbers by a few mil.

Wii-U sounds about right.

Though "Next Gen is Last Gen" is just too hilarious.
 
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