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Pachter Predicts: Xbox One outsold PS4 in September (dance, you puppets)

Sarobi

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Sep 26, 2013
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Wait? What? When did that happen?

I can understand not wanting to tie actual numbers based on Amazon data, but that is pretty lopsided in PS4's favor for it to go entirely the other way. In other words, why would a Pacher prediction be worthy of a new thread, but contradicting info from a major seller not even warrant a post?

In all honesty I don't even know. I'm use to seeing people discredit Amazon sales in the NPD threads from time to time.. hence why I said that lol
 

Usobuko

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Feb 3, 2013
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Things that currently exist cannot possibly hope to compete with the dreams of what might be.
 

blakep267

Member
Dec 9, 2013
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They actually did have the free game deal.
but they also conveniently took the madden bundle off of their site. while places like new egg, ms store and best buy were selling the free game plus the madden bundle and selling out of it. I'm not saying it beat ps4 tho
 

FDC1

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Aug 15, 2012
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No way Sony has only sold 250k PS4 in September, that would be an incredibily shocking number.
 

Boke1879

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Apr 25, 2013
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As much as I suspect he's completely off-base, I sort of hope Pachter is right on the money on this one because Sony needs a kick in their complacent ass right about now.

Why exactly? Aside from getting PSN in order and getting FW updates out more frequently they really don't need to do much of anything.

MS selling more consoles in one month won't make Sony get FW updates out any quicker.
 

Mrbob

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Jun 7, 2004
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Well since we're all throwing around anecdotal evidence, I spend a lot of time at my local Gamestop, and during my time there I saw two Xbox Ones and two Wii Us sold, and no PS4s

WHAT DOES THAT TELL YOU?

6.82 patch has made it to the console war. The Wii U comeback is real.
 

DustyVonEric

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Jan 11, 2014
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When I first heard about his prediction, I thought it was just some silly tweet for fun.

But this was in a note to investors? With actual analysis and time spent and reasons and what not?

Man, NPD can't get here quick enough. It seems basically a given to most that Sony has Sept won, and the real month up for grabs is Nov(?) when Halo MCC releases.

If he's wrong on something that seems so obvious to the rest of the world, or has MS winning but is still way off on amounts (I think he's coming in much too low on PS4), that would make me second guess his services.

If he happens to be right though, he found a damn palantir or some other mystical relic thought to be fantasy, and will rue the day the previous owner comes to reclaim what was lost or stolen.
 

ICPEE

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Jul 19, 2013
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Delayed firmware and games starting to catch up with Sony!
This post
 

Xer0

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May 8, 2013
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At my local target, PS4 has been MIA for a while now while the glass case is filled with Xbones. They could be on multiple replenishments of the Xbone though while the PS4 hasn't been restocked since selling out.

My local Target is the exact opposite. 2 XB1's, PS4's to the brim.
 

R1CHO

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Jan 30, 2011
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This is the guy that thought that the xbone had a clear advantage in the form of the killer app skype.

The guy who thought that people would buy xbox ones to chat with their grandmas using kinnect.

Yeah, whatever the number, he's opinions are irrelevant at this point.
 

baconcow

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Mar 11, 2012
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What is the biggest weekly hardware PS4 sales for North America since Christmas 2013? This is likely research Pachter did, as a professional analyst, and would likely help shed some light on his prediction.
 

Welfare

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Feb 24, 2014
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but they also conveniently took the madden bundle off of their site. while places like new egg, ms store and best buy were selling the free game plus the madden bundle and selling out of it. I'm not saying it beat ps4 tho
Amazon didn't refresh the Madden til the day after the deal ended. Maybe Amazon shouldn't be the end all when it comes to this month.
 

Loudninja

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Jul 30, 2007
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Hello all, Abdiel's Best Buy snapshot.

So, I had expected the ps4 to do well, but it did very, very well. The white bundle brought in a ton of new consumers, and even some current owners (like myself, actually) bought the white one as well (I sold my launch unit to a friend who struggles with finances, letting him pay me back over time, haha). We actually cleared our stock in almost over store in our district at least once, and needed replenishment. Crazy stuff. I remain keenly interested to see how other chains reflect this, though I know the game stop near my home did impressive numbers as well.

The XB1 still sold well, and certainly didn't lose momentum from the previous month, but there was a distinct gap in sales. Very distinct. Though I don't think anyone assumed the XB1 would win Destiny month.

Destiny continued to sell pretty Damn well after launch, though some consumers were clearly wavering as they considered. Word of mouth and friends pushing friends to join in the online chaos clearly did wonders.

Wii U is really struggling. The parents buying games for kids group seems largely in the dark now that the MK8 push has faded. Not sure how it will work out.

So yeah. Hope this still ends up on the first page.
Yeah I've heard this from multiple places.

Destiny + White Glacier PS4 = Massive sales.


Do you have any kind of relative indicators of district sales, perhaps? Like maybe how the Destiny + White Glacier PS4 compared to the PS4's launch back in November 2013?


It's a real shame to see MK8 continue to fall behind Mario Kart: Double Dash and fade from retail relevance. I wonder if Nintendo's holiday lineup will really do anything meaningful in terms of YOY growth now that Smash Bros. 3DS is commanding everyone's attention.
.
 

fedexpeon

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Nov 23, 2013
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I hope so.
This will teach Sony that the race isn't over yet because their firmware and PSN have been lacking recently.
 

driver116

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Nov 1, 2012
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This is the guy that thought that the xbone had a clear advantage in the form of the killer app skype.

The guy who thought that people would buy xbox ones to chat with their grandmas using kinnect.

Yeah, whatever the number, he's opinions are irrelevant at this point.

Yeah he predicted that everyone wants to Skype grandma and so will chose the Xbone over PS4. He cray.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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Exactly, so the argument should run through how the Amazon sample is not representative, not how large it is relative to other retailers -- the sample size is large enough to be more than enough statistically -- IF (and it's a big if) it's representative.

I don't think it is, so we always need to be careful with Amazon data, and use it relative to how the real numbers turned out compared to previous months, to try and account for the bias in the sampling.

Also worth keeping in mind that by and large the Xbox One deals were better outside of Amazon for a while in September.

Well, my initial question was just that, not a means for downplaying their reliability which has always been undetermined despite having a lot of data to compare against for the last few years if anyone has been tracking it alongside NPD results. On the face of it, I just think it's foolish to assume sales rankings at Amazon that people love to throw up are actually representative of the wider market where more people buy their games and hardware still. I still want to know where their marketshare is relative to the rest since they've gotten a bit soft on aggressive pricing and they may have shed some of their momentum as more states enforce internet sales taxes.
 

jbug617

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Jan 8, 2012
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nope. I think both consoles sold a good amount but I have a feeling the White Destiny Bundle sold a lot.
 

Welfare

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Feb 24, 2014
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I figured it out! Because most people thought that the Xbox One would win March because of Titanfall, when that didn't happen, the same would happen to the PS4 and Destiny. I cracked the code.
 

link4117

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Jul 23, 2013
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This is the guy that thought that the xbone had a clear advantage in the form of the killer app skype.

The guy who thought that people would buy xbox ones to chat with their grandmas using kinnect.

Yeah, whatever the number, he's opinions are irrelevant at this point.

I haven't paid attention to the guy since that video. It was so off base and unfounded I couldn't find a way for me to take him seriously anymore.
 

SwiftDeath

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May 31, 2013
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ha missed that there was a separate thread just for these predictions

I see no reason to believe that outcome he suggests is at all likely considering the trends
 

hawk2025

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Jan 20, 2013
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Well, my initial question was just that, not a means for downplaying their reliability which has always been undetermined despite having a lot of data to compare against for the last few years if anyone has been tracking it alongside NPD results. On the face of it, I just think it's foolish to assume sales rankings at Amazon that people love to throw up are actually representative of the wider market where more people buy their games and hardware still. I still want to know where their marketshare is relative to the rest since they've gotten a bit soft on aggressive pricing and they may have shed some of their momentum as more states enforce internet sales taxes.

I see, and fair enough.

I agree that there are right and wrong ways to use data that might not be representative (especially since we have ordinal rankings only, not solid numbers). I would also be interested in seeing how large Amazon's market share is for videogames. It was only a couple of years ago that most new releases had $10 or $20 gift card discounts for pre-orders. A shame that it's becoming more and more rare.
 

Patroclos

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Aug 14, 2014
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Kinda disingenuous of you to use that to mock him and not include his entire prediction. He based the sales numbers on whether or not the metacritic average hit a certain number, which it obviously didn't come close to doing.

That's actually even worse. A prediction with a built in escape clause. Pachter is a joke, the average Gaffer makes far better predictions.
 
Dec 13, 2013
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This is the guy that thought that the xbone had a clear advantage in the form of the killer app skype.

The guy who thought that people would buy xbox ones to chat with their grandmas using kinnect.

Yeah, whatever the number, he's opinions are irrelevant at this point.
Pacther has a long and colorful history of being Pro-USA-company in his predictions, especially in regards to Microsoft. This behavior is nothing new and whether or not he's right about X1 outselling PS4, he will continue to give X1 the "edge" for whatever inexplicable reason over the PS4.

For instance, he's far more likely to predict X1 "catching up" in a month (which he has done a number of times) instead of predicting a sales blowout in PS4's favor.