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[Striek]

It's happening in Japan? The general consensus seems to be that the country has gone handheld crazy over the past few years. The 3DS tops the sales charts every week almost without fail, and often by a massive distance. The Vita now seems to be taking 2nd place as well.

Those charts are only of dedicated gaming systems. Its quite possible for handhelds to slide into obsolescence alongside consoles.

The 3DS isn't doing as well as the DS, the PSP is certainly no Vita. The portable market is significantly down generation over generation.

 

[Shahed]

Yeah I kind of feel like a dinosaur in the UK market in that I still regularly play handhelds. As of right now, I don't know a single person who still plays on them amongst friends or family. That's even including my younger relatives. 5 years ago they were everywhere. Now when they visit they want my phone instead of my DS.

Dedicated Handhelds are as good as dead here. The only thing I can see working out is if the PS4-Vita integration works as well as it could as a remote device. But even then it will only boost hardware mainly.

I have to agree that next handhelds need to be more socialized. This doesn't mean they need to be online only like 720 was in the first rumour, neither that every game has to have social integration that implies DRM or anything like that, but they need to have connection with social medias, a pretty good connection: for example, possibility of linking Facebook account with NiN account, so accomplishments / Miiverse posts can be posted on Facebook too. This is another way to start advertising for products, by simple word of mouth. Miiverse on Wii U is a big step in the right direction, as well as PS4 social features: next handhelds need them more connected with social medias and more improved.

They really should incorporate Miiverse into the 3DS if it's possible. From what I've messed around with, it seems quite good, even if I haven't gone in depth. Give the 3DS/Wii U A unified account and make it so it can connect with each other and communicate on the fly. Like making it's own social community for Nintendo, not just Wii U. Then integrate that where possible with Facebook and the like.

 

[m.i.s.]

I have to agree that next handhelds need to be more socialized. This doesn't mean they need to be online only like 720 was in the first rumour, neither that every game has to have social integration that implies DRM or anything like that, but they need to have connection with social medias, a pretty good connection: for example, possibility of linking Facebook account with NiN account, so accomplishments / Miiverse posts can be posted on Facebook too. This is another way to start advertising for products, by simple word of mouth. Miiverse on Wii U is a big step in the right direction, as well as PS4 social features: next handhelds need them more connected with social medias and more improved.

That's fine and will certainly help to an extent but what's the one major barrier that handhelds face as compared to a smartphone? The latter has an "always on" connection.

Once mass market, affordable 4G arrives in the West, I expect handhelds to be completely finished everywhere in the Western world.

 

[-MB-]

Those charts are only of dedicated gaming systems. Its quite possible for handhelds to slide into obsolescence alongside consoles.

The 3DS isn't doing as well as the DS, the PSP is certainly no Vita. The portable market is significantly down generation over generation.

The DS is an outlier, no one expected 3ds to replicate its success. 3DS still wel on par to matching GBA in the end.

 

[Mpl90]

I still don't understand why if 3DS doesn't do DS-like numbers at the end of the gen, or just near DS-like numbers, it's a massive fail. DS has been a monster, if any console has to be compared with that, then everything is a flop. We're talking of a console that sold over 30 millions of units in two years, worldwide. Seriously, now we're even thinking that gaming as a whole in Japan could go the way of the dodo in the next years when 3DS is the biggest thing over there? Seriously? IF 3DS reaches 100 millions when it hits its end, what would be your opinion about it...would you consider it a fail?

 

[liger05]

I still don't understand why if 3DS doesn't do DS-like numbers at the end of the gen, or just near DS-like numbers, it's a massive fail. DS has been a monster, if any console has to be compared with that, then everything is a flop. We're talking of a console that sold over 30 millions of units in two years, worldwide. Seriously, now we're even thinking that gaming as a whole in Japan could go the way of the dodo in the next years when 3DS is the biggest thing over there? Seriously? IF 3DS reaches 100 millions when it hits its end, what would be your opinion about it...would you consider it a fail?

Correct. The 3DS in no way has to match the DS to be considered a success.

 

[Xater]

That's fine and will certainly help to an extent but what's the one major problem that handhelds face compared to a smartphone? The latter has an "always on" connection.

Once mass market, affordable 4G arrives in the West, I expect handhelds to be completely finished in the Western world.

No the real benefit of the phone is that I have it always with me. Most people even see it as a necessity. If you already have a perfectly fine smartphone with cheap games and you pay a contract fee, why would you want a handheld with expensive games? For a lot of people that's a waste of money's s remember if you are tight on money entertainment is the first thing to go.

 

[grimshawish]

Animal Crossing is past 3 Million.
MK7, NSMB2 and Monster Hunter at 2M.

Other software is outdoing previous entries into their series and new IPs on the system have opened very well indeed.

Using the term 'obsolete' to discuss the best selling console in one of the biggest gaming markets is both ignorant and frankly sad.

3DS is selling really very well in Japan and is very relevant. Calling it obsolete is just tripe.

 

[michaelius]

Unless Nintendo games become irrilevant in every country, it won't happen. Reduced sales overall for sure, but it won't happen so soon. Unless Nintendo goes with the hybrid next gen.

Soon? Nope more like 10-15 years.
But the future of Nintendo handhelds is ever shrinking userbase of Nintendo faithfull and kids - and when current kids who grown up playing Angry Birds on their phones/tablets get married you can guess what they will be buying for their children.

 

[Striek]

You guys are creating strawmen to argue against.

 

[grimshawish]

You guys are creating strawmen to argue against.

I just see people replying to someone who took the time to post.

 

[SmokyDave]

Animal Crossing is past 3 Million.
MK7, NSMB2 and Monster Hunter at 2M.

Other software is outdoing previous entries into their series and new IPs on the system have opened very well indeed.

Using the term 'obsolete' to discuss the best selling console in one of the biggest gaming markets is both ignorant and frankly sad.

3DS is selling really very well in Japan and is very relevant. Calling it obsolete is just tripe.

A; PAL Charts. PAL.
B; Nobody called the 3DS obsolete.

 

[grimshawish]

A; PAL Charts. PAL.
B; Nobody called the 3DS obsolete.

Am replying to someone who brought up Japan and described it as obsolete.

 

[Pie and Beans]

Whole lotta non-moving. Looks like the firestorm of new releases has subsided a fair bit with things picking back up at the end of this month.

Handheld discussion is interesting because thats where Nintendo is headed to only with another home console just not even worth pretending would be worth their investment again. Could a "this is the only platform for Nintendo stuff" keep dedicated handhelds still a thing?

Phones are just too convenient. I love my Vita, but stuff like Rayman Jungle Run just on my personage at all times is a tought addiction to crack and justify diving into my messenger bag and case for the Vita and glorious buttons+sticks.

 

[Striek]

Am replying to someone who brought up Japan and described it as obsolete.

No one did that though.

 

[gngf123]

A; PAL Charts. PAL.
B; Nobody called the 3DS obsolete.

Well, a couple of people are talking about japan a fair amount in this thread, so what he is saying is entirely fine (Well, me and Striek but that's about it). Also, at least one person in this thread has said handhelds are becoming obsolete.

 

[Visualante2]

I'm thinking parents ain't gonna buy their kid a 3DS or Vita when they just bought a tablet or smart phone for it (pay attention to children's Christmas wish list polls). I can see the situation improving if smart phones bottom out in price.

Neither handheld has the variety that inspired the world, you could find recipe guides for DS on Checkout aisles. No silver bullet game even Pokemon will solve it. War of attrition for N's handheld division

 

[SmokyDave]

Am replying to someone who brought up Japan and described it as obsolete.

"Its quite possible for handhelds to slide into obsolescence alongside consoles." =/= 3DS is obsolete.

Well, a couple of people are talking about japan a fair amount in this thread, so what he is saying is entirely fine. Also, at least one person in this thread has said handhelds are becoming obsolete, so yes they have.

It really isn't fine. Nip into the Media Create thread and mention how poorly the 3DS performs in the UK, watch what happens.

Again, "Its quite possible for handhelds to slide into obsolescence alongside consoles." =/= 3DS is obsolete.

 

[-MB-]

Soon? Nope more like 10-15 years.
But the future of Nintendo handhelds is ever shrinking userbase of Nintendo faithfull and kids - and when current kids who grown up playing Angry Birds on their phones/tablets get married you can guess what they will be buying for their children.

Keep drinking from the fountain of wishful thinking.

 

[grimshawish]

It really isn't fine. Nip into the Media Create thread and mention how poorly the 3DS performs in the UK, watch what happens.[/quote

Don't be an arsehole. Your picking who to get offended by. I never brought up Japan and was replying specifically about how 3DS was doing in Japan. So don't twist my posy into what its obviously not.

Since its a PAL thread I'll point out that we get the same every week. Its not handhelds in the UK imo its Nintendo who have lost relevancy. I doubt the UK has any more iOS or Play store sales thab rest of the world.

[/quote]Again, "Its quite possible for handhelds to slide into obsolescence alongside consoles." =/= 3DS is obsolete.[/QUOTE]

Its supposedly sliding into obsolecence, e.g. becoming obsolete. Theres little sign this is even true and the argument relies on dedicated gaming in Japan crashing and burning.

 

[gngf123]

It really isn't fine. Nip into the Media Create thread and mention how poorly the 3DS performs in the UK, watch what happens.

Yeah, I agree with that. So, shouldn't we be pulling the guy in the thread commenting on how the handheld market will do in the future in Japan - instead of pulling up the guy replying to him? That's exactly what I would imagine would happen if I did what you mentioned, but not what is happening in this thread.

This is regardless of the amount of hyperbole/overreaction the reply actually has.

EDIT:

Since its a PAL thread I'll point out that we get the same every week. Its not handhelds in the UK imo its Nintendo who have lost relevancy. I doubt the UK has any more iOS or Play store sales thab rest of the world.

It's honestly a little bit of both. Nintendo do terribly here, and for a large part they essentially are the handheld console industry. It really shows that the Vita does better here than it does the rest of the world.

Also, I think the UK smartphone adoption rate is really high.

 

[electroplankton]

I think 3DS still has a quite good chance in repeating pre-DS handheld numbers. Before DS, handheld were popular mainly among kids; DS led to an expansion including all ages, for example Brain Training was huge in UK. 3DS might well be on track to sell close to 80 million units, as GBA did back then. Many kid-oriented IPs still have to appear also, like Pokemon.

 

[Pie and Beans]

I doubt the UK has any more iOS or Play store sales thab rest of the world.

You'd be quite wrong. Our country's smartphone adoption is way ahead of the curve, thanks in part to the fact we went wild about mobile phones a lot faster than the rest of the world. We're also pretty ahead in tablet adoption too.

 

[Mpl90]

I think 3DS still has a quite good chance in repeating pre-DS handheld numbers. Before DS, handheld were popular mainly among kids; DS led to an expansion including all ages, for example Brain Training was huge in UK. 3DS might well be on track to sell close to 80 million units, as GBA did back then. Many kid-oriented IPs still have to appear also, like Pokemon.

But it's going to sell more than 80 millions in the end, for the simple fact that it won't see its successor coming less than 4 years after its debut. This greatly stopped GBA sales in the long run, it won't stop 3DS sales in the long run. This is why I think 100 millions when it will be all over can be considered reasonable.

 

[Shahed]

I think 3DS still has a quite good chance in repeating pre-DS handheld numbers. Before DS, handheld were popular mainly among kids; DS led to an expansion including all ages, for example Brain Training was huge in UK. 3DS might well be on track to sell close to 80 million units, as GBA did back then. Many kid-oriented IPs still have to appear also, like Pokemon.

I can see it reaching 80m without a doubt. Just with little help from the UK unless Pokemon completely revives the 3DS. It very well might, but I have my doubts

 

[Visualante2]

Phones are killing it because there's always a new 'next best thing' and that 'next best thing' is usually connected to, or propagated through, Facebook (or other social media). Handheld software comes too slowly, costs too much and doesn't offer the kind of social media connectivity that 'the masses' are looking for. The F2P tide might well be stopped by the OFT though, so we'll see what kind of effect that has on things.

I can't see dedicated handhelds 'growing' again though. They're just going to seem more irrelevant as time goes on.

there's enough money in that market for them to adapt to any changes suggested by the OFT I bet. Create some gaming responsibility site for kids and parents and call it a day.

Speaking of which has there been any attention by chart track to do a mobile chart or has Apple and Google shut that down?

 

[m.i.s.]

I can see it reaching 80m without a doubt.

But it's going to sell more than 80 millions in the end, for the simple fact that it won't see its successor coming less than 4 years after its debut. This greatly stopped GBA sales in the long run, it won't stop 3DS sales in the long run. This is why I think 100 millions when it will be all over can be considered reasonable.

My memory's a bit hazy but did GBA have any competitors?

 

[gngf123]

My memory's a bit hazy but did GBA have any competitors?

Not really, unless you consider the N-Gage.

 

[Miles X]

But it's going to sell more than 80 millions in the end, for the simple fact that it won't see its successor coming less than 4 years after its debut. This greatly stopped GBA sales in the long run, it won't stop 3DS sales in the long run. This is why I think 100 millions when it will be all over can be considered reasonable.

Unrealistic to think 3DS is gonna be reaching heights of 15m yearly WW again. There just isn't enough interest in the west.

Putting it into perspective, PS3 and 360 barely ever managed to get 15m in a year, let alone 3DS.

 

[Mpl90]

Unrealistic to think 3DS is gonna be reaching heights of 15m yearly WW again. There just isn't enough interest in the west.

Pokèmon later this year. And Animal Crossing, especially now that Nintendo (THANK GOD) decided to release it for a lower price.

 

[Shahed]

But it's going to sell more than 80 millions in the end, for the simple fact that it won't see its successor coming less than 4 years after its debut. This greatly stopped GBA sales in the long run, it won't stop 3DS sales in the long run. This is why I think 100 millions when it will be all over can be considered reasonable.

I liked your topic about the hybrid between console and handheld and I think that's the way forward for Nintendo (suits me as well). But there's a lot of logistics they'd need to sorr out for that to work properly. But say they do go with thag route. When do they cut the 3DS off?

I mean Wii U launched nearly two years after 3DS. If you launch a hybrid, do you cut Wii U prematurely? Or let 3DS stay an extra 2 years longer (and potentially stagnate?). Because if you do launcha new system, best to do it while you still have momentum on your side. In the case that Wii U doesn't pick up this holiday witht the likes of Mario Kart, Wii U might not have momentum 4 years down the line. But if you wait too long to the point 3DS begins to lose it's own market speed, you risk having all the eggs in that one basket being sent out to a market that no longer wants eggs. That would be disastrous. Would they not be better off cutting into 3DS a but early?

 

[Miles X]

Pokèmon later this year. And Animal Crossing, especially now that Nintendo (THANK GOD) decided to release it for a lower price.

Yes, they're not going to sustain sales for years are they. They'll give it a good bump but you have to factor in the offset of the slump it would have received naturally.

 

[LTWheels]

UK smartphone adoption rates are ridiculously high. Ofcom's report from last year said that there are more smartphone users than non-smartphone users in the UK, and the UK uses more mobile internet than any other country.

 

[SmokyDave]

Don't be an arsehole. Your picking who to get offended by. I never brought up Japan and was replying specifically about how 3DS was doing in Japan. So don't twist my posy into what its obviously not.

I'm just saying. This is a sales thread and the focus in these threads is supposed to be laser-accurate on the region in question. It wouldn't fly in an MC thread, so it shouldn't fly in here either. You made a ton of statements that were simply not relevant to the market in question, even quoting numbers for a game that hasn't been released in this country.

Since its a PAL thread I'll point out that we get the same every week. Its not handhelds in the UK imo its Nintendo who have lost relevancy. I doubt the UK has any more iOS or Play store sales thab rest of the world.

We do. We're ahead of the curve on smartphone / tablet adoption.

Its supposedly sliding into obsolecence, e.g. becoming obsolete. Theres little sign this is even true and the argument relies on dedicated gaming in Japan crashing and burning.

Denial. The numbers don't lie. The dedicated handheld market is contracting sharply.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Wait, people are actually disputing a contraction of the Western handheld market?

Pokèmon later this year. And Animal Crossing, especially now that Nintendo (THANK GOD) decided to release it for a lower price.

Is Animal Crossing big in the West? I don't really follow handheld gaming (software) trends as much.

I'm somewhat skeptical about whether Pokemon can stem the ebbing tide against handhelds. I'm actually somewhat astonished franchise fatigue hasn't heavily set in by now. Is the TV show still popular at all?

 

[m.i.s.]

Not really, unless you consider the N-Gage.

Ahh yes, side talking! p

Unrealistic to think 3DS is gonna be reaching heights of 15m yearly WW again. There just isn't enough interest in the west.

Putting it into perspective, PS3 and 360 barely ever managed to get 15m in a year, let alone 3DS.

I thought it would do around 80 millions WW LTD too at one point but I'm not so sure looking at recent figures.

The only thing I would say with certainty at this point is that 3DS will be the leading system in Japan and may even come close to the DS [at the expense of other systems rather than growing the videogame pie as a whole]. The reason I say this is that Nintendo has missed pretty much every 3DS sales forecast in their end of FY reports. And judging by recent NPD sales figures, the 3DS is actually down Y-on-Y. I'm not saying it's impossible to reach that 80 millions figure. Just that there's a lot up in the air with respect to increased competition and Nintendo's own release schedule.

 

[Shahed]

UK smartphone adoption rates are ridiculously high. Ofcom's report from last year said that there are more smartphone users than non-smartphone users in the UK, and the UK uses more mobile internet than any other country.

I'd definitely agree with that from my perpective. Can't recall the last time I've seen a non-smartphone

 

[metalslimer]

I don't know if the 3ds will reach 80 million. 70 million is a real possibility, but tablets and sartphones continue to gain marketshare and more and more parents are buying kids handhelds anymore

 

[liger05]

Wait, people are actually disputing a contraction of the Western handheld market?

Is Animal Crossing big in the West? I don't really follow handheld gaming (software) trends as much.

I'm somewhat skeptical about whether Pokemon can stem the ebbing tide against handhelds. I'm actually somewhat astonished franchise fatigue hasn't heavily set in by now. Is the TV show still popular at all?

Animal Crossing on the DS was massivly popular!!

 

[gngf123]

Wait, people are actually disputing a contraction of the Western handheld market?

Is Animal Crossing big in the West? I don't really follow handheld gaming (software) trends as much.

Not as big as in Japan, but it sells okay in the west as far as I know. Wild World sold about 5m in Europe and America (combined).

 

[SmokyDave]

I don't know if the 3ds will reach 80 million. 70 million is a real possibility, but tablets and sartphones continue to gain marketshare and more and more parents are buying kids handhelds anymore

Yup, I'd say somewhere around half the sales of the DS. With no real competition. Ouch.

 

[liger05]

Yup, I'd say somewhere around half the sales of the DS. With no real competition. Ouch.

Just because the Vita is no competition to the 3DS it doesnt mean smartphones are not.

 

[m.i.s.]

Not as big as in Japan, but it sells okay in the west as far as I know. Wild World sold about 5m in Europe and America (combined).

I would have thought that Animal Crossing is exactly the type of social networking game that would be massively popular on tablets and smartphones with the casual demographic. And that consequently, we may see a massive drop off in interest in this title in the West?!?!

 

[cloudyy]

Isn't/wasn't Japan big on mobile/smartphones even before the DS, they always had those phones that where ahead of the rest of the world where you could play that FF4 game. What happened with that, why didn't it take over dedicated handhelds in japan? I think the smartphone/handheld situation is more a status thing than anything else, handhelds aren't cool anymore in many countries.

 

[metalslimer]

It will be interesting to see if there is some fatigue with pokemon this year with Black/White, Black/White 2, X/Y coming out in 3 consecutive years. They've really been pumping them out recently.

 

[Mihael Mello Keehl]

We do. We're ahead of the curve on smartphone / tablet adoption.


Denial. The numbers don't lie. The dedicated handheld market is contracting sharply.

Yup, I'd say somewhere around half the sales of the DS. With no real competition. Ouch.

Surely there is competition. And surely the vita isnt the real competition.

 

[SmokyDave]

Just because the Vita is no competition to the 3DS it doesnt mean smartphones are not.

Indeed smartphones most definitely are competing, and they're doing exceptionally well by the look of things. I meant no competition from other dedicated handhelds.

Surely there is competition. And surely the vita isnt the real competition.

I know, I was talking about dedicated handhelds in isolation.

 

[gngf123]

Yup, I'd say somewhere around half the sales of the DS. With no real competition. Ouch.

I don't know if the 3ds will reach 80 million. 70 million is a real possibility, but tablets and sartphones continue to gain marketshare and more and more parents are buying kids handhelds anymore

Well considering the 3DS has made its way to 30m units already, well in line with what the DS sold (35m units in its first 2 years IIRC), I wouldn't mind betting that it will sell a hell of a lot more than the "half the DS sales" which you guys are predicting.

Of course, this would require that the 3DS will increase in popularity - but with the likes of Animal Crossing and Pokemon incoming, I think that's pretty likely.

 

[liger05]

Isn't/wasn't Japan big on mobile/smartphones even before the DS, they always had those phones that where ahead of the rest of the world where you could play that FF4 game. What happened with that, why didn't it take over dedicated handhelds in japan? I think the smartphone/handheld situation is more a status thing than anything else, handhelds aren't cool anymore in many countries.

It's a fair question. Its not like Japan doesnt have smartphones or tablets but maybe the most important thing is the dedicated handhelds still offer them experiences/games you cant find on a phones/tablets and that’s not an issue while here it seems people do not mind the content and control scheme found on phones.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Isn't/wasn't Japan big on mobile/smartphones even before the DS, they always had those phones that where ahead of the rest of the world where you could play that FF4 game. What happened with that, why didn't it take over dedicated handhelds in japan? I think the smartphone/handheld situation is more a status thing than anything else, handhelds aren't cool anymore in many countries.

I'm sure that people will take issue with this notion, but I believe the perception of handhelds remains as that of "children's toys."

It's why we expect the hardware and their games to be priced lower.
It's why most Western third-parties generally ignore the handheld "ghetto."
It's why there's really no market for a high-end dedicated gaming handheld.

During the 90s home consoles essentially "mainstreamed," they became broader entertainment devices, something that I don't think has happened for handhelds. To its credit though the NDS did attract in new gaming audiences, and the PSP also probably attracted in demographics that handhelds previously did not cater to. But I think this new generation of handhelds is back to the norm.