Phil Spencer: The Xbox business will become ‘untenable’ if it remains ‘irrelevant’ on mobile.

Kagey K

Banned
The console segment itself is growing though, at least for Nintendo and Sony. Nothing shrinking about it, let’s not lump MS in with the others here.
It's not. It has shrunk since the Wii360 days.

More ppl on PC and mobile makes it look healthier, but it's been relatively flat.
 

Ozriel

Member
Why is he doing so many interviews lately? Feels like theres a new one every week now

Often times, it’s the same interview people mine for multiple sound bites.
We’ve had 4 threads from the same interview with TheVerge.

He needs to create hype until the games release early next year.

For someone who’s made multiple threads from his interviews, you’re claiming interviews talking about Starfield delay, canceled Keystone project and concerns about the activision deal approval process is targeted at ‘creating hype’? 😀
 
As I explained to you, MS doesn't enough console userbase.

Xbox one was 55+m users. There is new gen console in the market. Most of new gamepass games are going to be next gen. It makes sense for console subs to slow down.

1 other thing you ignoring is the PC market. That is a growth avenue, which can increase gamepass userbase numbers. Total of those sub could hit up to 60m.

So for now, the growth would be inline with console sales (until those who have gamepass manage to get the system), and pc growth. Minus those who only use xlive gold.


The real growth would be in the form of cloud gaming. Just like how Netflix and Disney plus are on streaming devices, xcloud could be that tool. But we aren't on that step yet. It would take time for cloud to hit.
"Could hit up to.."

It won't. Even MS is aware of that, that's why Spencer says the things he says.

Gaming =/= tv/movies

It just doesn't work that way.
 

remember_spinal

Gold Member
I never know what this guy is really talking about. I feel like everything he says is written by lawyers somewhere to mean something else to someone. He speaks like a lobbyist or something
 

Three

Member
I think we need to consider what success criteria looks like, a 5% take of mobile gaming revenue is 4.5bn usd on a year in net rev, right?

Could be 720m in profits.
I'm not sure where that figure comes from but I suspect that's all mobile game revenue at $92b? The stores cut of the overall market is far smaller. They would not be making anywhere near 4.5b from their competing app store. From mtx for owning the games on the other app stores maybe close to that but not from launching a competing app store.

All of their studio acquisitions so far have not been mobile focused at all. It's a red herring now that they have scrutiny and they know regulators aren't happy with the mobile duopoly. They know they don't have a chance in hell of a competing store on mobile. They can't even do that well on their own PC platform and had to launch their games on Steam to get any sales.
 

reksveks

Member
I'm not sure where that figure comes from but I suspect that's all mobile game revenue at $92b? The stores cut of the overall market is far smaller. They would not be making anywhere near 4.5b from their competing app store. From mtx for owning the games on the other app stores maybe close to that but not from launching a competing app store.
I accounted for the cut in the last bit 4.5bn*18% = 720m also assuming that they are going to copy the ms store revenue split. There probably some additional incremental costs to the xbox mobile app store but not going to be crazy.

The 92bn is from newzoo and doesn't include ad revenue but includes the main things app and in-app purchases.

All of their studio acquisitions so far have not been mobile focused at all. It's a red herring now that they have scrutiny and they know regulators aren't happy with the mobile duopoly. They know they don't have a chance in hell of a competing store on mobile. They can't even do that well on their own PC platform and had to launch their games on Steam to get any sales.
They mentioned the Open App Store Policies long before the Activision deals and that's been a precursor to their push against Apple and Google.
 
Last edited:

Three

Member
I accounted for the cut in the last bit 4.5bn*18% = 720m also assuming that they are going to copy the ms store revenue split.
I thought you turned revenue into profit there because you mentioned it as profit and not revenue.

They mentioned the Open App Store Policies long before the Activision deals and that's been a precursor to their push against Apple and Google.

I'm sure MS have mentioned Open App Store Policies before as part of their battle with Apple and Google but what did the Zenimax deal, Ninja Theory, Playground games, InXile, Obsidian, DoubleFine, Compulsion, and Undead labs get them in terms of competing with the mobile app stores? Their video game acquisitions have not been mobile focused whatsoever.
 
Last edited:

reksveks

Member
I thought you turned revenue into profit there because you mentioned it as profit and not revenue.
I could have been clearer and probably should have mentioned the cost (minor) of adding a mobile store front.

Im sure MS have mentioned Open App Store Policies before as part of their battle with Apple and Google but what did the Zenimax deal, Ninja Theory, Playground games, InXile, Obsidian, DoubleFine, Compulsion, and Undead labs get them in terms of competing with the mobile app stores? Their video game acquisitions have not been mobile focused whatsoever.
I think the acquisitions for ABK is very different than the other ones. I don't think they made those purchases for mobile and that's just normal. Not every purchases needs to be for the same reasons, right?

The reasons for buying Bungie is different to the reasons for buying Nixxes etc.
 
Last edited:

DenchDeckard

Gold Member
No one wanted to hear anything about how much Microsoft wanted King and just kept shouting "ma call of doody"

Now they are saying...Ms never mentioned mobile of King....

It's all they've really talked about...it was everyone else hung up on COD
 

feynoob

Member
"Could hit up to.."

It won't. Even MS is aware of that, that's why Spencer says the things he says.

Gaming =/= tv/movies

It just doesn't work that way.
30m each(pc+console) is achievable. I don't why you don't get that.
If MS hits 80m-90m xseries consoles, that is almost 40m gamepass users.
 
That is not if.
Ps+ is 48m on 120 system.
Gamepass has that reach, especially how the service is selling the system now.
MS won't hit 80M-90M series X sold.
That's the big IF.

Xbox One sold ~50M

X360 sold ~85M

Xbox OG sold like ~40M

Series X is struggling against PS5 in their two strongest markets, US and UK.
X360 success was due to Sony fucking up with PS3 and a year head-start.

Expecting 80M sold is reaching, really.
 
Last edited:

ProtoByte

Member
So if cloud doesn't take off, Xbox business is untenable.

That's what he's talking about, not creating mobile games.

MS isn't in this because they think they can compete with the likes of Sony / Nintendo and their profits.

They think Xbox and "xCloud as a service" is going to be 10's of billions in profit business because of some pie in the sky idea that cloud streaming will replace native mobile gaming..

Have they also done native mobile games / will continue to do so? Of course.. but the thing Satya has been sold on is the idea that Xbox can cut into Apple's gaming profits, and they think that can be done via cloud.
This is exactly it. GHG GHG was wondering why they're focusing on this, and the answer is that even if it doesn't work out, it doesn't matter. Spencer still makes his salary, stock options and cash bonuses as long as he can generate investment hype fumes, and the same goes for Nadella.

There's a reason why they were both talking about "2 billion gamers". As much hot-air as Spencer's been puffing, this statement lines up with what both he and Nadella have consistently talked about.

Yeah, it's really baffling to me too, how mobile games can generate such revenue.

I'd like to see a break down of how that revenue is made.

Is it a small percentage of players who spend incredible amounts? AKA whales

Is it a moderate amount of players, spending small amounts periodically?

Is it through advertisements displayed between levels, etc?

I've never once been even remotely tempted to spend money on a mobile game 🤷‍♂️
This is a good question. And the answer points out why this idea of the kinds of profits from mobile gaming spreading to core machines (console and PC) will never work.

A firm that specializes in monetization analysis and consultancy for mobile app devs did a report that tracked millions of players over the course of 3 months. So it's a good dataset.

Only 1.6% of players spend a red cent on in-app purchases. Of that fraction, the top 10% of spenders account for 64.5% of all revenue generated from those purchases. Meaning that 0.16% of the audience makes up 64.5% of direct purchasing revenue. Which is the largest portion of how these apps make money over advertising by a wide, wide margin.

This is not an audience that is transferable to core gaming.
 
Last edited:

feynoob

Member
MS won't hit 80M-90M series X sold.
That's the big IF.
At their worst period, they managed to hit 55+m with low 1st party output.
This gen, they are guaranteed to surpass x360 numbers.
Especially with current trajectory. They managed to hit 15+m before their 2 year anniversary. And that is with console shortages.

They also going to own COD, which would significantly increase their console sales.

So yes, they can hit that. I won't be surprised, if they do 100m consoles sold.

Series X is struggling against PS5 in their two strongest markets, US and UK.
X360 success was due to Sony fucking up with PS3 and a year head-start.
That is not how you determine the market.
X360 had COD, and Halo.
This gen, they are going to own COD and they have gamepass as console seller system.
 
At their worst period, they managed to hit 55+m with low 1st party output.
This gen, they are guaranteed to surpass x360 numbers.
Especially with current trajectory. They managed to hit 15+m before their 2 year anniversary. And that is with console shortages.

They also going to own COD, which would significantly increase their console sales.

So yes, they can hit that. I won't be surprised, if they do 100m consoles sold.


That is not how you determine the market.
X360 had COD, and Halo.
This gen, they are going to own COD and they have gamepass as console seller system.
PS5 supply constraints didn't have anything to do with that, you think?
Sony has slowly begun to get it sorted, they have been releasing quite some games that sell like crazy and it's only going to get worse.

We've seen this happen every gen: once Sony gets rolling, they're leaving MS behind.
Even during the X360/PS3-era.

COD is really the only thing MS has on Sony and even that is still coming to Playstation for quite some time, because we all know there's a massive userbase over there.

Sony isn't dependent on COD though, not to the point that it functions as a life-line.

But this wasn't meant to be a Xbox vs PS-discussion.

Point is, expecting 80-90M Series X being sold is delusional.

Even Spencer is coming out basically saying that Xbox will become irrelevant without the mobile market and f2p.
 

Bernkastel

Ask me about my fanboy energy!
Windows had more games than the ones that were only in the windows store, it had remote play and some IOS/Android titles to.

The point is they were TRYING to get into the mobile market before and failed, They weren't just sitting around waiting until it was late and then tried to buy King.
No, that list was about games in the Windows Phone store, it was not that big. Microsoft also had Windows Mobile before its successor Windows Phone (7,8,10) launched in 2010. At that time the concept of games free to play mobile games like FGO, Genshin, COD:Mobile etc. making billions did not exist. Neither were creators of Android or iPhone knew about these kinds of games. Microsoft was trying to make a smartphone OS, gaming was an after thought.
I don't think they even understood the concept of getting into the gacha market at that time. Thats like saying they made Windows, so that eventually World of Warcraft would be released.
With Windows Mobile/Phone, Microsoft were trying to enter the mobile market, not mobile gaming market(more specifically the mobile gaming market today. There were no gacha games made or promoted by Microsoft for Windows Phone because no one ever considered that mobile gaming market would overtake PC/Console market. The priorities were simply different back then.
 

feynoob

Member
PS5 supply constraints didn't have anything to do with that, you think?
Sony has slowly begun to get it sorted, they have been releasing quite some games that sell like crazy and it's only going to get worse.
What does ps5 supply has anything to do with Xbox sales?

We've seen this happen every gen: once Sony gets rolling, they're leaving MS behind.
Even during the X360/PS3-era.
That doesn't matter for xbox sales. People who want Xbox won't buy ps, to play xbox games.

COD is really the only thing MS has on Sony and even that is still coming to Playstation for quite some time, because we all know there's a massive userbase over there.
Marketing rights. MS is going to own that. And COD would have xbox logo, instead of PS.

Sony isn't dependent on COD though, not to the point that it functions as a life-line.
COD gives them free marketing. You take that away, and you lose casuals.
It's what made xbox strong during x360.

Point is, expecting 80-90M Series X being sold is delusional.
If a shit xbox can sell 55m with low 1st party support, then a good xbox would hit that numbers.

Check xbox series studios vs Xbox one studios.

Even Spencer is coming out basically saying that Xbox will become irrelevant without the mobile market and f2p.
Have you paid attention to what he said?
The current market prefers that options. It's not xbox thing.

A game like genshin impact is making more than GOd of war and spiderman combined.
It's why Sony and mS is going after these markets with live service games.
 
Last edited:

feynoob

Member
Benniewise de Clown Benniewise de Clown
This what phil means about the future games.

"MiHoYo's RPG Genshin Impact has generated $3.7 billion in player spending since its launch two years ago.Sep 29, 2022"

When a game like this generates that much, it makes traditional games weak in term of revenue generated.

Sony would need to sell 52 8m copies sold game's at 70$ in order to generate that much money in 2 years.

All of that was done by only 1 free 2 play game.
 
Last edited:
Mobile gaming is absolutely terrible in my experience with tons of mediocre, derivative clones and free-to-play games with adverts and/or microtransactions that are intentionally designed to make you want to pay or suffer the tedious grind. For me, mobile gaming is gaming hell. I don't even consider it to be for gamers, it's for people who don't really like or play games, i.e. the so-called casuals. I own an iPad and a mobile phone but I never play games on either, though I have tried them, of course, then pretty much uninstalled them straight after! I have my Switch for portable gaming and my consoles and PC for *proper* gaming.
 
Last edited:

Three

Member
I think the acquisitions for ABK is very different than the other ones. I don't think they made those purchases for mobile and that's just normal. Not every purchases needs to be for the same reasons, right?

The reasons for buying Bungie is different to the reasons for buying Nixxes etc.

That's the thing, I don't believe that. I think it's a red herring.

All of their studio acquisitions so far have not been mobile focused at all. It's a red herring now that they have scrutiny and they know regulators aren't happy with the mobile duopoly. They know they don't have a chance in hell of a competing store on mobile. They can't even do that well on their own PC platform and had to launch their games on Steam to get any sales.

The reason for nixxes I can believe. Use Nixxes studio to port Sony IPs to PC. That's understandable and a viable business for both parties. Use ABK ips to launch a viable mobile app store though? I Don't believe that for one second and I don't think even MS does. especially when using their own IPs like Forza, Halo, Gears etc to launch an app store failed on their own platform (PC) and none of their acquisitions have been mobile focused at all. They have made no moves to compete with their own app store even though Android allows it.
 
Last edited:

Helghan

Member
I never know what this guy is really talking about. I feel like everything he says is written by lawyers somewhere to mean something else to someone. He speaks like a lobbyist or something
When people say this I always wonder if they just have a bad grasp of the English language. He's extremely clear in what he's saying, and The Verge pressed on him when this wasn't the case so he clarified.
 
What does ps5 supply has anything to do with Xbox sales?
What do you think people that desperately want to go next-gen buy when there is no PS5 available, with no ETA?

That doesn't matter for xbox sales. People who want Xbox won't buy ps, to play xbox games.
Unless they give up xbox games, which have been mediocre for about a decade, outside of forza.
Marketing rights. MS is going to own that. And COD would have xbox logo, instead of PS.
Moot argument.
COD gives them free marketing. You take that away, and you lose casuals.
It's what made xbox strong during x360.
Yes, but people buy PS mainly for their games library, with their 1st party offerings being the main decisive factor.
If a shit xbox can sell 55m with low 1st party support, then a good xbox would hit that numbers.
You're looking at it the wrong way.

The strongest xbox couldn't beat the shittest Playstation, despite a year head-start and moneyhatting left and right .

Xbox series studios vs xbox one studios are still unproven.
Have you paid attention to what he said?
The current market prefers that options. It's not xbox thing.
What else is he going to say?
It has to if they want to stay relevant.

The same argument was made about GamePass and streaming before it became stagnant almost right after the start.
A game like genshin impact is making more than GOd of war and spiderman combined.
It's why Sony and mS is going after these markets with live service games.
Yes, that much is obvious.
It's about the necessity of mobile and f2p to stay relevant.
 
Last edited:

reksveks

Member
The reason for nixxes I can believe. Use Nixxes studio to port Sony IPs to PC. That's understandable and a viable business for both parties. Use ABK ips to launch a viable mobile app store though? I Don't believe that for one second and I don't think even MS does. especially when using their own IPs like Forza, Halo, Gears etc to launch an app store failed on their own platform (PC) and none of their acquisitions have been mobile focused at all. They have made no moves to compete with their own app store even though Android allows it.
I don't think the android actually offers particularly easily, there are still wait a few hurdles and they are being ligated by others at the moment.

I do agree that MS hasn't been the most aggressive re pushing their own store (both PC and Mobile). I still don't expect them to pull King's games from the existing stores. There is too much risk and I think it also isn't a great look.
 

feynoob

Member
What do you think people that desperately want to go next-gen buy when there is no PS5 available, with no ETA?
People who want to play xbox games.

Unless they give up xbox games, which have been mediocre for about a decade, outside of forza.
Your opinion, which is a shit.

Moot argument.
Sorry that you can't understand basics.

Yes, but people buy PS mainly for their games library, with their 1st party offerings being the main decisive factor.
Again your opinion. You sound like a fanboy, with that mentality.

You're looking at it the wrong way.

The strongest xbox couldn't beat the shittest Playstation, despite a year head-start and moneyhatting left and right .

The strongest xbox went from 30m to 85m on its 2nd gen. That itself is impressive. No one cares if it beats PS consoles.

Xbox series studios vs xbox one studios are still unproven.
Get your fanboy mentality out of your brain.
Obsidian, ninja theory, and entire bethesda team are proven devs. Same with Activision.

What else is he going to say?
It has to if they want to stay relevant.

The same argument was made about GamePass and streaming before it became stagnant almost right after the start.
You really don't want to face the reality don't you?

Yes, that much is obvious.
It's about the necessity of mobile and f2p to stay relevant.
No dude. A game like that makes way more money, than most prestige Sony and xbox games combined.
How do you think Phil and Jim Ryan feels about that?
 

reksveks

Member
YoY growth using LC


Rev Split using USD



YoY growth using USD

 
People who want to play xbox games.


Your opinion, which is a shit.


Sorry that you can't understand basics.


Again your opinion. You sound like a fanboy, with that mentality.



The strongest xbox went from 30m to 85m on its 2nd gen. That itself is impressive. No one cares if it beats PS consoles.


Get your fanboy mentality out of your brain.
Obsidian, ninja theory, and entire bethesda team are proven devs. Same with Activision.


You really don't want to face the reality don't you?


No dude. A game like that makes way more money, than most prestige Sony and xbox games combined.
How do you think Phil and Jim Ryan feels about that?
I'm just stating some facts.

And xbox 360 might have gone up to 80M from 30M, but a gen later dropped to 50M and this gen is following last-gen trend, despite PS5 supply issues.

I'll leave it at that, because I don't have the energy to devolve into squabbling.
 

feynoob

Member
I'm just stating some facts.

And xbox 360 might have gone up to 80M from 30M, but a gen later dropped to 50M and this gen is following last-gen trend, despite PS5 supply issues.

I'll leave it at that, because I don't have the energy to devolve into squabbling.
Do you even know the difference between this gen and last gen for xbox?
 
Yeah, it makes you want to not invest on Xbox who just started investing in mobile and instead wants to make you want to invest on other platforms who have been investing on mobile for 7 years and way too deep into it.

I think the core issue is that with Xbox, it feels like their pursuit of mobile growth is going to be at the expense of satiating what remains of demand on the console side, let alone increasing focus growth on console. If you look at PC GamePass vs Xbox GamePass, for example, there's actually some substance to having that belief, because the former is just an all-out better value than the latter, despite the former only existing because of the latter.

That's actually something Sony needs to be very careful with to avoid as they invest further into PC; you don't want to signal to your core constituency that their platform feels like an afterthought. The ecosystem might be encompassing multiple devices but the brand's identity is still rooted in the traditional games console, so that aught to get the best & preferred treatment.

When core Xbox fans see stuff like PC GamePass (and the value it brings vs Xbox GamePass, i.e the RIOT games pack, free online, PC-exclusive games etc.), and then see statements from MS like "Xbox is untenable if it stays irrelevant on mobile", they're going to feel like the console isn't very important. And if they feel the company thinks the console isn't very important, why should they as a customer consider it important enough to buy or invest into?

Companies like Sony and Nintendo might have been investing into mobile for a while, that's true. However, they haven't done that at the expense of their console investments, nor have made their core fans feel like it's come at the expense of their main platforms (PS4, PS5, Switch). Microsoft hasn't managed to do that. Consider all the stuff that didn't manifest or disappointed since the XBO generation:

-Crackdown 3​
-Scalebound cancelled​
-Phantom Dust remake cancelled​
-ReCore​
-Halo Infinite​
-Zero new 1P games at Series X/S launch​
-Cancelled Xbox VR​
-Passed on Marvel deal​
-Flight Sim PC-exclusive for 1 year​
-AOE4 PC-exclusive for 1 year (and extra)​
-CrossFire X​
-Delaying RedFall AND Starfield​
-Throwing out Pentiment near Starfield's original date (very much like a Sega giving Saturn owners Sonic 3D Blast when they were supposed to get Sonic Xtreme)​
-Perfect Dark reboot dev hell​
-Zero release dates (and VERY little actual gameplay presented) for several 1P games shown off years ago (Hellblade II, State of Decay 3, Everwild, Contraband, Avowed, Outer Worlds 2, Fable etc.)​
-Everwild dev hell​

And there are probably more. If MS were doing enough in the core console space to both satisfy their core Halo/Gears/Forza fans AND release content to draw in lots of people outside of those spaces, content that were industry-leading in some form or another and comparable to the quality and cache of Sony & Nintendo's 1P output and 3P exclusives, then the things I just listed would not have been put under such an intense microscope.

But MS have completely failed in doing that, hence the type of perceptions like those you were replying to.
 
Last edited:

feynoob

Member
I think the core issue is that with Xbox, it feels like their pursuit of mobile growth is going to be at the expense of satiating what remains of demand on the console side, let alone increasing focus growth on console. If you look at PC GamePass vs Xbox GamePass, for example, there's actually some substance to having that belief, because the former is just an all-out better value than the latter, despite the former only existing because of the latter.
It takes a set of skills to come up with this.
  • Mobile investment wont have any impact on console side. This like nintendo investment on mobile. You know those mobile games? Not like console games.
  • PC have their own games, which consoles dont have. And gamepass exist on their platform and on their store. MS isnt only a console company. They also need to make their store attractive too.
That's actually something Sony needs to be very careful with to avoid as they invest further into PC; you don't want to signal to your core constituency that their platform feels like an afterthought. The ecosystem might be encompassing multiple devices but the brand's identity is still rooted in the traditional games console, so that aught to get the best & preferred treatment.
Mobile users and console users are different groups.

When core Xbox fans see stuff like PC GamePass (and the value it brings vs Xbox GamePass, i.e the RIOT games pack, free online, PC-exclusive games etc.), and then see statements from MS like "Xbox is untenable if it stays irrelevant on mobile", they're going to feel like the console isn't very important. And if they feel the company thinks the console isn't very important, why should they as a customer consider it important enough to buy or invest into?
MS isnt Sony again. They have windows store. Why dont you understand that. They are focusing on their PC side of business too.
As for console users, they have gamepass, and day1 xbox games. The brand invested on their 1st party studio. That should tell their console users, that there would be alot of games coming for the system. If that is not investment, then I dont know what that word means.

Companies like Sony and Nintendo might have been investing into mobile for a while, that's true. However, they haven't done that at the expense of their console investments, nor have made their core fans feel like it's come at the expense of their main platforms (PS4, PS5, Switch). Microsoft hasn't managed to do that. Consider all the stuff that didn't manifest or disappointed since the XBO generation:

-Crackdown 3-Scalebound cancelled-Phantom Dust remake cancelled-ReCore-Halo Infinite-Zero new 1P games at Series X/S launch-Cancelled Xbox VR-Passed on Marvel deal-Flight Sim PC-exclusive for 1 year-AOE4 PC-exclusive for 1 year (and extra)-CrossFire X-Delaying RedFall AND Starfield-Throwing out Pentiment near Starfield's original date (very much like a Sega giving Saturn owners Sonic 3D Blast when they were supposed to get Sonic Xtreme)-Perfect Dark reboot dev hell-Zero release dates (and VERY little actual gameplay presented) for several 1P games shown off years ago (Hellblade II, State of Decay 3, Everwild, Contraband, Avowed, Outer Worlds 2, Fable etc.)-Everwild dev hell
Why dont you list all their other positive side? Like gamepass? Or day1 gamepass games?

I get that x1 was a shit gen, which they should have invested better. But they started doing that since 2018. The company have been investing on the console side since then.

Their 3rd party investment however was weak, and that shouldnt be forgiven by xbox fans.

And there are probably more. If MS were doing enough in the core console space to both satisfy their core Halo/Gears/Forza fans AND release content to draw in lots of people outside of those spaces, content that were industry-leading in some form or another and comparable to the quality and cache of Sony & Nintendo's 1P output and 3P exclusives, then the things I just listed would not have been put under such an intense microscope.
THEY ARE FIXING THAT PROBLLEM NOW.
They should have done that early. But at least they arent throwing the towel.

You are overblowing the stuff too much. Xbox one happened, and that phase is gone. The company is trying to fix all the xbox one issue, by investing as much as they can. We have seen alot of japanese games now, compared to xbox one.

Fixing things dont happen overtime. MS has a lot of things to fix. Such as expanding their market reach. Local language support on foreign countries. Focusing on 3rd party exclusive games. Expanding their timed exclusive games to AAA, instead of those boring games they are doing now. And the most important thing, put a leash on their studios, and demand them to actually present something.
Currently, they have fixed their 1st party issues, which was a big problem during xbox one gen. They made gamepass, which actually made people pay attention to the brand. And the most important thing, it made MS invest on xbox (Should have done this during x360).
 
Last edited:
It takes a set of skills to come up with this.
  • Mobile investment wont have any impact on console side. This like nintendo investment on mobile. You know those mobile games? Not like console games.
  • PC have their own games, which consoles dont have. And gamepass exist on their platform and on their store. MS isnt only a console company. They also need to make their store attractive too.

Nintendo are not Microsoft. Sony are not Microsoft. Microsoft, by their own words, have not had satisfactory growth and returns in the console space for 20 years. If suddenly they are able to start seeing massive growth and returns in mobile while investing less in R&D and budgets for those mobile properties, they are NOT going to be against scaling back on console R&D and budgets, and I doubt shareholders would have such an issue either if returns on mobile are strong enough.

Microsoft have in fact flirted with doing this in the past, again driven by shareholders. They have already said recently that GamePass will only account for at max 15% of their gaming revenue, I don't think shareholders are going to be counting on that to keep their interest in the Xbox division going, since GamePass was initially made to help bolster Xbox. But instead of saying (or reassuring) that divestment from GamePass will revert back to Xbox in a manner more in line with traditional business model principals, they are saying that they need mobile, and GamePass is probably still a big part of their mobile plans.

Xbox is not the primary core of Microsoft's gaming ambitions going forward, that much seems more and more clear every passing week. Which is fine; but those of you who are still of some other belief are misleading yourselves.

Mobile users and console users are different groups.

OK? I already knew this.

MS isnt Sony again. They have windows store. Why dont you understand that. They are focusing on their PC side of business too.
As for console users, they have gamepass, and day1 xbox games. The brand invested on their 1st party studio. That should tell their console users, that there would be alot of games coming for the system. If that is not investment, then I dont know what that word means.

You're just highlighting problems with MS's approach currently. NO ONE uses Windows Store for gaming on PC, it's a non-starter and has been for years.

Those "Day 1" MS 1P games for GamePass have not been consistent in release schedule, quality or retention. Halo Infinite is dead. FH5 isn't really talked about anymore and the playerbase has shrunk. Grounded is basically SoT's little sibling, not really a show-stealer. Pentiment is comparable to a mid-scale indie game and has no cultural cache among the gaming zeitgeist. Fable, Avowed, Perfect Dark, State of Decay 3, Everwild...games that MS sold the premise and heights of GamePass on years ago, are still MIA.

Why dont you list all their other positive side? Like gamepass? Or day1 gamepass games?

I would but to the majority they don't exist. GamePass is just a service, and to many people it has less value than something like PS+ Extra or Premium/Deluxe. The Day 1 games to GP this year have reduced in scale significantly compared to last year, outside of Plague Tale: Requiem.

I get that x1 was a shit gen, which they should have invested better. But they started doing that since 2018. The company have been investing on the console side since then.

The problem is there hasn't been much fruit bore from the seeds of those investments yet, and it's been four years already. Ultimately, it's the results that matter. But that requires the games to actually have been released.

Their 3rd party investment however was weak, and that shouldnt be forgiven by xbox fans.

Agreed.

THEY ARE FIXING THAT PROBLLEM NOW.
They should have done that early. But at least they arent throwing the towel.

I understand that, but the problem is there has been little in the way of proof that the investments are paying off. Not just because the games aren't released yet, but because we have seen little if any actual gameplay on the biggest games they've revealed so far for 1P, like Fable, Avowed or Hellblade II.

And those three were games revealed YEARS ago.

You are overblowing the stuff too much. Xbox one happened, and that phase is gone. The company is trying to fix all the xbox one issue, by investing as much as they can. We have seen alot of japanese games now, compared to xbox one.

Just because MS have moved on to Xbox Series, doesn't mean people suddenly forget about the XBO generation. They can forgive those mistakes, but they'll never forget them.

And as of this moment, MS haven't really done a lot to provide the more cynical types out there with the type of high-caliber games that speak to them, to where they have wholly forgiven MS for the mistakes and shortfalls of the XBO generation. But that is ultimately the only way MS can earn back that favor, and along the way make gains with the wider market (in the console space, anyway).

Sony had to spend years earning back goodwill after only a few years of PS3's horrid early years. Nintendo had to spend years earning back goodwill with lackluster performance of Gamecube and then Wii U. In both cases, they did that with strong, consistent 1P content and strategic exclusive 3P content, during the years their struggling platforms were still commercially active.

Microsoft did not do this with Xbox during the XBO gen, so they lost a lot of time. What hurts them even more is that it's not like Sony or Nintendo are going to slow down; MS may have a big 2023 coming but Sony & Nintendo will have big 2023s as well and have a very good chance of overshadowing Microsoft with their platform output.

Fixing things dont happen overtime. MS has a lot of things to fix. Such as expanding their market reach. Local language support on foreign countries. Focusing on 3rd party exclusive games. Expanding their timed exclusive games to AAA, instead of those boring games they are doing now. And the most important thing, put a leash on their studios, and demand them to actually present something.
Currently, they have fixed their 1st party issues, which was a big problem during xbox one gen. They made gamepass, which actually made people pay attention to the brand. And the most important thing, it made MS invest on xbox (Should have done this during x360).

I can't respond to max font-size bolded text seriously, sorry 😂. But in general, I'm not saying MS aren't investing in 1P content or the console; far from it. I'm just saying it may not feel like enough to offset feelings among many that console is taking a backseat to PC and mobile growth ambitions going forward. It's also a case of if they are making these investments too little, too late.

Which wouldn't be the first time a platform holder did such a thing. Sega invested into some really good 1P software in Saturn's last years and through the Dreamcast years, but it was too late to offset the growth of Nintendo and especially Sony, or to fully make up for their business mistakes with the last years of Genesis/MegaDrive (including the 32X) and the Saturn (especially in the West). They just didn't have access to MS's level of cash, which is why they had to leave the market as a platform holder.

And we may be at a point where that's ultimately the main difference between the two at these respective points: MS has the money to absorb the kind of market penalties Sega took on, without being in financial jeopardy the way Sega ended up being. But I guess we'll see what happens from this point on, huh?
 

feynoob

Member
Nintendo are not Microsoft. Sony are not Microsoft. Microsoft, by their own words, have not had satisfactory growth and returns in the console space for 20 years. If suddenly they are able to start seeing massive growth and returns in mobile while investing less in R&D and budgets for those mobile properties, they are NOT going to be against scaling back on console R&D and budgets, and I doubt shareholders would have such an issue either if returns on mobile are strong enough.
Do you understand what a mobile investment is?

Microsoft have in fact flirted with doing this in the past, again driven by shareholders. They have already said recently that GamePass will only account for at max 15% of their gaming revenue, I don't think shareholders are going to be counting on that to keep their interest in the Xbox division going, since GamePass was initially made to help bolster Xbox. But instead of saying (or reassuring) that divestment from GamePass will revert back to Xbox in a manner more in line with traditional business model principals, they are saying that they need mobile, and GamePass is probably still a big part of their mobile plans.
Right, you really dont understand anything. 15% of total revenue is big. But since its you, you wont get it.

Xbox is not the primary core of Microsoft's gaming ambitions going forward, that much seems more and more clear every passing week. Which is fine; but those of you who are still of some other belief are misleading yourselves.
A company which focuses on Multiple avenue of growth, wont just focus on 1 part of their business. Xbox is still at the center of their project, and its why they can invest on other parts of business.
Its something forum people dont understand.

OK? I already knew this.
You dont. Since you dont understand mobile investment.

You're just highlighting problems with MS's approach currently. NO ONE uses Windows Store for gaming on PC, it's a non-starter and has been for years.
And its why they are focusing on that store. You just highlighted the problem. Since no one is using it, they are trying to make it attractive.

Those "Day 1" MS 1P games for GamePass have not been consistent in release schedule, quality or retention. Halo Infinite is dead. FH5 isn't really talked about anymore and the playerbase has shrunk. Grounded is basically SoT's little sibling, not really a show-stealer. Pentiment is comparable to a mid-scale indie game and has no cultural cache among the gaming zeitgeist. Fable, Avowed, Perfect Dark, State of Decay 3, Everwild...games that MS sold the premise and heights of GamePass on years ago, are still MIA.
Did those games just vanish in to thin air? Are they not going to be released? Do you think MS shelved those games?

I would but to the majority they don't exist. GamePass is just a service, and to many people it has less value than something like PS+ Extra or Premium/Deluxe. The Day 1 games to GP this year have reduced in scale significantly compared to last year, outside of Plague Tale: Requiem.
You are just trying to be funny here. I can understand it. Its not like 25m people are using gamepass.

I understand that, but the problem is there has been little in the way of proof that the investments are paying off. Not just because the games aren't released yet, but because we have seen little if any actual gameplay on the biggest games they've revealed so far for 1P, like Fable, Avowed or Hellblade II.

And those three were games revealed YEARS ago.
And those games would be released. They arent cancelled. Do you really think, games would be released super fast? Some games even take 7-8 years to make. That is how the industry is. You just dont see it, because you are busy with other games.

Just because MS have moved on to Xbox Series, doesn't mean people suddenly forget about the XBO generation. They can forgive those mistakes, but they'll never forget them.
They did a documentary about it. Its on the internet.

And as of this moment, MS haven't really done a lot to provide the more cynical types out there with the type of high-caliber games that speak to them, to where they have wholly forgiven MS for the mistakes and shortfalls of the XBO generation. But that is ultimately the only way MS can earn back that favor, and along the way make gains with the wider market (in the console space, anyway).
Living different world must be great.

Sony had to spend years earning back goodwill after only a few years of PS3's horrid early years. Nintendo had to spend years earning back goodwill with lackluster performance of Gamecube and then Wii U. In both cases, they did that with strong, consistent 1P content and strategic exclusive 3P content, during the years their struggling platforms were still commercially active.
Microsoft did not do this with Xbox during the XBO gen, so they lost a lot of time. What hurts them even more is that it's not like Sony or Nintendo are going to slow down; MS may have a big 2023 coming but Sony & Nintendo will have big 2023s as well and have a very good chance of overshadowing Microsoft with their platform output.
That is the difference between having alot of studios, and relying on 3rd party exclusives. Something Xbox lacked during xbox one. The outlook of current Xbox studios is day and night compared to xbox one. Unless you think bethesda studios, obsidian, ninja theory and other devs useless, and unreliable.

I can't respond to max font-size bolded text seriously, sorry 😂. But in general, I'm not saying MS aren't investing in 1P content or the console; far from it. I'm just saying it may not feel like enough to offset feelings among many that console is taking a backseat to PC and mobile growth ambitions going forward. It's also a case of if they are making these investments too little, too late.
Are you paying attention to the current economy?
Making games are very expensive. Big publishers are trying to get some financial support to sustain themselves. Xbox and PS are no different. Both have to diversify their business, and venture other business sectors. Its why they are focusing on PC and Mobile. Its an oppurtunity to bring more revenue, in order to continue this console business.

FYI: Consoles are sold at a loss, and those losses are brought back from games sales on their system. To put it simply, MS and Sony are running a risky business here. You should know what Ps3 did to Sony.

Which wouldn't be the first time a platform holder did such a thing. Sega invested into some really good 1P software in Saturn's last years and through the Dreamcast years, but it was too late to offset the growth of Nintendo and especially Sony, or to fully make up for their business mistakes with the last years of Genesis/MegaDrive (including the 32X) and the Saturn (especially in the West). They just didn't have access to MS's level of cash, which is why they had to leave the market as a platform holder.

And we may be at a point where that's ultimately the main difference between the two at these respective points: MS has the money to absorb the kind of market penalties Sega took on, without being in financial jeopardy the way Sega ended up being. But I guess we'll see what happens from this point on, huh?
Your concern for content is already being addressed. They bought studios to make games for them.
Those studios would need time to release games. by 2025, xbox games would be different than what it is now. Until then, take the ride, and enjoy your other games.
 

levyjl1988

Member
I honestly don't think Game Pass will succeed on mobile markets.
I can see it working out on PCs. Consoles for Xbox sure, but it won't get higher than that, people such as myself will prefer to buy boxed game copies. Playing new experiences takes a lot of mental effort as we have to go through the tutorial and mechanics and the hook has to be powerful enough. In a setting where the struggle is not what to play, but do I have the motivation to tap on that backlog or be extremely lazy and watch others play on Youtube.

Apple will certainly not let GamePass app work in their Apple ecosystem as that is Apple's territory especially when they will set their own ecosystem.
Nintendo isn't open to putting GamePass on Nintendo Switch as we should have seen it up already.
Sony will never let GamePass on their ecosystem, because it is Sony and they are pushing their own similar service.

Xbox can only penetrate the Android (Google) Market and their own Xbox, PC eco system.
To have a meta verse where one rules over the other like Sony owning BluRay and winning over HD DVD is similar.

But Microsoft will win the metaverse wars though.
Apple will release the headset, but they lack IPs and video games.
No one wants a metaverse if there isn't any games, social networks are dead, people move on from My Space to Facebook to SnapChat to Twitter to TikTok to Google + etc. They come and go.
Metaverses live and die by the hardware and their games and IP.
But judging by Microsoft's handling of their games like Halo Infinite's retention, Microsoft will struggle to get it right. Their monetization schemes suck so bad that it is obvious and exploitative.
 

feynoob

Member
Apple will certainly not let GamePass app work in their Apple ecosystem as that is Apple's territory especially when they will set their own ecosystem.
They got you covered there.
Xcloud app isnt allowed on iphones and Ipad. The only way to play them, is through browser.
 
Yeah, it's really baffling to me too, how mobile games can generate such revenue.

I'd like to see a break down of how that revenue is made.

How is it baffling? All the most manipulative people have some form of smartphone, there's very little rules and little push back so you can sucker them in with scams and mtx or push bad deals and with over a billion phones out there, you only need a few hundred million to fall into it to make 6000x the money.

Ok. So what hype?

Xbox hype for the holiday season
 
For someone who’s made multiple threads from his interviews, you’re claiming interviews talking about Starfield delay, canceled Keystone project and concerns about the activision deal approval process is targeted at ‘creating hype’?

You must have missed the interviews I posted because the ones I posted have been nothing but hype other than one being skeptical of the Activision deal.

Now we have a new one with Phil talking about Demand, and Satya saying they are ahead of the game with the brand. They are clearly putting Xbox in the news cycle as much as possible for the next two months to take advantage of attention for the holiday rush.
 
Last edited:
Do you understand what a mobile investment is?

Obviously yes. Do you understand that a company has a very good fiscal case to roll down funding in a much lower-profit sector, if smaller investment in another sector gets them magnitudes more profit?

Right, you really dont understand anything. 15% of total revenue is big. But since its you, you wont get it.

It's "big" the same way Xbox as a division has accounted for maybe 10% of MS's annual revenue, if even that.

15% of $16 billion is not very much considering they had been messaging that GamePass would be the "killer app" and key pillar for Xbox as a brand. But the real reason they are probably saying GamePass will max out at 15% of revenue is a combination of slowing growth on console, low returns on PC, and that once they get ABK, COD & Candy Crush alone will leapfrog both their annual gaming revenue AND profit.

A company which focuses on Multiple avenue of growth, wont just focus on 1 part of their business. Xbox is still at the center of their project, and its why they can invest on other parts of business.
Its something forum people dont understand.

You may feel Xbox is still the cornerstone of their gaming strategy. However, a lot of people who are looking at it, see it in legacy terms only. I.e, it's the cornerstone simply because it's the oldest.

But it's increasingly clear that MS's real markets for gaming revenue growth (as they seem to see it) are PC and especially mobile. That is at the heart of why they are trying to acquire ABK. If Xbox were the cornerstone, they wouldn't need to buy ABK just to bring content to Xbox (content they'd be getting anyway). They could literally just buy exclusivity rights to select ABK games, or get marketing rights on certain games, for Xbox, if it were just about Xbox or if Xbox were at the center of this strategy.

IMO Xbox is involved in these decisions but more in terms of what its legacy can do for GamePass and Azure growth (particularly in the developer scene), and what content that can provide for growth into PC and mobile (as well as more easily leverage for better terms with certain companies to do specific things, such as buying ABK). If there were one part of MS's gaming strategy they were to be forced to discontinue right now, the Xbox console would probably be first up to bat.

You dont. Since you dont understand mobile investment.

Sure thing dude.

And its why they are focusing on that store. You just highlighted the problem. Since no one is using it, they are trying to make it attractive.

Again, it could be a case of too little, too late. That's my point.

Did those games just vanish in to thin air? Are they not going to be released? Do you think MS shelved those games?

Dunno. Maybe some have been shelved. Maybe some are not what they have been hyped up to be. Maybe what we end up getting is a game that was essentially rebooted multiple times.

All I know is it's been years since they were announced, and we still have little to no gameplay for them, no release dates, nothing but talking heads and PR saying they're coming along "just fine". Show, don't tell.

You are just trying to be funny here. I can understand it. Its not like 25m people are using gamepass.

25 million over a course of roughly 5 years, averaging out to 5 million new subs a year. At ARPUs we can estimate are nowhere near saturation peak, no new sub numbers given, statements from MS themselves that sub growth is slowing on console.

And those games would be released. They arent cancelled. Do you really think, games would be released super fast? Some games even take 7-8 years to make. That is how the industry is. You just dont see it, because you are busy with other games.

Pre-COVID, even most AAA games took about 5 years on average. 7 year dev cycles were absolutely the exception, and somewhat still are.

They did a documentary about it. Its on the internet.

I know. I've seen the documentary. Great series. But it's besides the point.

Living different world must be great.

Yeah and in this world, all those missing Xbox games I just mentioned, are actually released!

That is the difference between having alot of studios, and relying on 3rd party exclusives. Something Xbox lacked during xbox one. The outlook of current Xbox studios is day and night compared to xbox one. Unless you think bethesda studios, obsidian, ninja theory and other devs useless, and unreliable.

Outlook still only measures potential, and is not reflective of actual output. I didn't claim Bethesda, Obsidian etc. are useless and unreliable.

In fact, my sentiments are more directed towards Xbox upper management, not the studios. Well, unless they're 343i. That studio's just kind of a complete mess.

Are you paying attention to the current economy?

Yes. I live in it.

Making games are very expensive. Big publishers are trying to get some financial support to sustain themselves. Xbox and PS are no different. Both have to diversify their business, and venture other business sectors. Its why they are focusing on PC and Mobile. Its an oppurtunity to bring more revenue, in order to continue this console business.

I mean that's one way to look at it. But I just gave you other interpretations that many people outside of the dedicated fanbase are seeing it as, and there are many valid points to use in arriving at those conclusions.

FYI: Consoles are sold at a loss, and those losses are brought back from games sales on their system. To put it simply, MS and Sony are running a risky business here. You should know what Ps3 did to Sony.

PS3 has a lot of self-inflicted wounds outside of the razors/razor blades model approach. Tons of new tech loaded in from the jump (Blu-Ray drive, integrated wifi, tons of port support, etc.), Cell R&D, rushed Nvidia GPU were added risks for PS3 that Sony either did not have to do, or could've done better if they had more time to plan things out.

Your concern for content is already being addressed. They bought studios to make games for them.
Those studios would need time to release games. by 2025, xbox games would be different than what it is now. Until then, take the ride, and enjoy your other games.

We're assuming it'll be different compared to right now. But many of those games could fail, some could be cancelled, or some could just be smaller affairs serving as nice distractions but not something that make people salivate after a console for.

We. Simply. Do. Not. Know. Yet. So it's okay to have some caution and reservations.
 

ZehDon

Member
... And xbox 360 might have gone up to 80M from 30M, but a gen later dropped to 50M and this gen is following last-gen trend, despite PS5 supply issues.
This isn't even remotely true. Not only did Xbox have their best launch - ever - this generation, they're also currently ahead of all previous Xbox generations launch aligned. Early 2022 estimates have them within spitting distance of the PS5. The Xbone was an unmitigated disaster, while the Xbox Series X|S is currently Xbox's best generation yet - beating even the Xbox 360, which had the market to itself for an entire year.
 
Last edited:

feynoob

Member
Obviously yes. Do you understand that a company has a very good fiscal case to roll down funding in a much lower-profit sector, if smaller investment in another sector gets them magnitudes more profit?
So you really dont understand mobile gaming then.
I suggest you do more research about how much revenue mobile makes.
It's "big" the same way Xbox as a division has accounted for maybe 10% of MS's annual revenue, if even that.

15% of $16 billion is not very much considering they had been messaging that GamePass would be the "killer app" and key pillar for Xbox as a brand. But the real reason they are probably saying GamePass will max out at 15% of revenue is a combination of slowing growth on console, low returns on PC, and that once they get ABK, COD & Candy Crush alone will leapfrog both their annual gaming revenue AND profit.
15% of the platform is big. How can you downplay this? Especially when the said service hasnt hit its ceiling yet.
You may feel Xbox is still the cornerstone of their gaming strategy. However, a lot of people who are looking at it, see it in legacy terms only. I.e, it's the cornerstone simply because it's the oldest.

But it's increasingly clear that MS's real markets for gaming revenue growth (as they seem to see it) are PC and especially mobile. That is at the heart of why they are trying to acquire ABK. If Xbox were the cornerstone, they wouldn't need to buy ABK just to bring content to Xbox (content they'd be getting anyway). They could literally just buy exclusivity rights to select ABK games, or get marketing rights on certain games, for Xbox, if it were just about Xbox or if Xbox were at the center of this strategy.

IMO Xbox is involved in these decisions but more in terms of what its legacy can do for GamePass and Azure growth (particularly in the developer scene), and what content that can provide for growth into PC and mobile (as well as more easily leverage for better terms with certain companies to do specific things, such as buying ABK). If there were one part of MS's gaming strategy they were to be forced to discontinue right now, the Xbox console would probably be first up to bat.
Xbox is the heart of those purchases. Instead of being console only, its now a unifying family, under 1 account. Xbox is at the center of that order. Without it, none of these would matter.
Again, it could be a case of too little, too late. That's my point.
Just because its too late, doesnt mean you cant invest in.
Dunno. Maybe some have been shelved. Maybe some are not what they have been hyped up to be. Maybe what we end up getting is a game that was essentially rebooted multiple times.

All I know is it's been years since they were announced, and we still have little to no gameplay for them, no release dates, nothing but talking heads and PR saying they're coming along "just fine". Show, don't tell.
So you have no idea then. Got it.
25 million over a course of roughly 5 years, averaging out to 5 million new subs a year. At ARPUs we can estimate are nowhere near saturation peak, no new sub numbers given, statements from MS themselves that sub growth is slowing on console.
And that is a huge success. This is the growth of the service so far.


The service wont slow down, until the console reachs a certain number. PC exist too, which increases the userbase. It would hit a market cap. But that depends on how far is MS is pushing.

Pre-COVID, even most AAA games took about 5 years on average. 7 year dev cycles were absolutely the exception, and somewhat still are.
MS started buying those studios in 2018. If you follow the purchased years, and the last games they made, it should follow the 5 year dev cycle.
I know. I've seen the documentary. Great series. But it's besides the point.
It hightlights the problems, which xbox one had.
Yeah and in this world, all those missing Xbox games I just mentioned, are actually released!
2021 doesnt exist. ghost wire tokyo doesnt exist. or the 2 delays (Like most games did in 2022).
Outlook still only measures potential, and is not reflective of actual output. I didn't claim Bethesda, Obsidian etc. are useless and unreliable.

In fact, my sentiments are more directed towards Xbox upper management, not the studios. Well, unless they're 343i. That studio's just kind of a complete mess.
Pre 2018, they had small studios. Look at this graph.
This is why I keep telling people to do some research.

This is MS/Xbox studios, which was making content for them. Study clear, and see why they suffered massively from lack of content.

Closed studios

BUNGIE​

  • Founded: 1991
  • Bought by Microsoft: 2000
  • Status: Alive, but Separated

DIGITAL ANVIL​

  • Founded: 1996
  • Bought By Microsoft: 2000
  • Status: Closed in 2006

ENSEMBLE​

  • Founded: 1995
  • Bought by Microsoft: 2001
  • Status: Closed in 2008

LIONHEAD STUDIOS​

  • Founded: 1997
  • Bought By Microsoft: 2006
  • Status: Closed in 2016

PRESS PLAY​

  • Founded: 2006
  • Bought By Microsoft: 2012
  • Status: Closed in 2016

I mean that's one way to look at it. But I just gave you other interpretations that many people outside of the dedicated fanbase are seeing it as, and there are many valid points to use in arriving at those conclusions.
2022 e3 showed the road map for 1 year gamepass release. That is console investment in action.
2022 was dry for 1st party games, and I wont pretend it doesnt exist though.

PS3 has a lot of self-inflicted wounds outside of the razors/razor blades model approach. Tons of new tech loaded in from the jump (Blu-Ray drive, integrated wifi, tons of port support, etc.), Cell R&D, rushed Nvidia GPU were added risks for PS3 that Sony either did not have to do, or could've done better if they had more time to plan things out.
Same thing for xbox one. Suffered massively from lack of 1st party, and 3rd party exclusives like x360. Not to mention the infamous e3 TV.
We're assuming it'll be different compared to right now. But many of those games could fail, some could be cancelled, or some could just be smaller affairs serving as nice distractions but not something that make people salivate after a console for.

We. Simply. Do. Not. Know. Yet. So it's okay to have some caution and reservations.
All you need to look is their studios chart. You can make your mind after that.
 
This isn't even remotely true. Not only did Xbox have their best launch - ever - this generation, they're also currently ahead of all previous Xbox generations launch aligned. Early 2022 estimates have them within spitting distance of the PS5. The Xbone was an unmitigated disaster, while the Xbox Series X|S is currently Xbox's best generation yet - beating even the Xbox 360, which had the market to itself for an entire year.

PS5 ~25M sales worldwide

Series X/S ~17M sales worldwide

Despite PS5 supply constraints.

Xbox having their best launch ever means nothing when looking at the bigger picture.

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/455260/ps5-vs-xbox-series-xs-sales-comparison-september-2022/
 
Last edited:
That's not even close to what they said.

They don't have to say it per se; we've seen actions and results from them over the past 20 years that more or less support it.

The moves they are making right now, IMO, are in an attempt to pivot their game branding and business model to fully realize a hardware-agnostic ecosystem they've been teasing since before 2020. And I think it's going to be very jarring for some of the super diehard fans out there, but ultimately will make the most sense for their goals of growth in the industry.

So you really dont understand mobile gaming then.
I suggest you do more research about how much revenue mobile makes.

Specific mobile games. Not every game is a Candy Crush, Geshin Impact, or COD mobile. And I do know that mobile devs make most of the cash through MTX, so what exactly are you getting at here?

15% of the platform is big. How can you downplay this? Especially when the said service hasnt hit its ceiling yet.

GamePass may not have hit its ceiling, but its growth has slowed on console. Phil Spencer himself has said this. It has bigger growth on PC, but GamePass on PC was never that popular anyway and doesn't generate the type of revenue it did on console. The only way it can grow on mobile is with xCloud and since they are launching an xClould-specific app for mobile you can't necessarily say that is GamePass in and of itself.

I'm not downplaying GamePass. I'm just noting that the ceiling probably isn't some 100 million subscriber dream that most hardcore fans want to think, or even the 75 million sub count some of us more reasonable types had been fair enough to speculate in the past. And none of that even addresses revenue, or what the ARPU ends up looking like, because that is at the end more important that total number of subscribers (Sony's revenue growth with PS+ even with the 1.9 million subscriber drop-off, thanks to PS+ Extra and Premium/Deluxe, is proof of this).

Xbox is the heart of those purchases. Instead of being console only, its now a unifying family, under 1 account. Xbox is at the center of that order. Without it, none of these would matter.

Maybe for now, and maybe for the optics of what that signals to their core fanbase. But I think in MS's pursuit of a truly hardware-agnostic, unified gaming business model, the legacy of Xbox will be leveraged more for the backend things, i.e gaming clients to Azure, while the frontend (to customers) it will transform into their version of a Steam Machine or Steam Deck, in how the platform is designed, hardware config options, general OS functionality support and more.

And I also feel that MS will sooner rather than later bring all 1P games to PlayStation and Nintendo devices natively (assuming the devices can run those games), as well as Xbox and PC (and some mobile, like say Pentiment type of games) Day 1. So Xbox will just be a consolized PC type of option to play those games on. I genuinely feel that is the direction they will end up taking the brand by the end of the generation, Satya Nadella's recent statements kind of show hints of this (not so much in him saying that specifically about Xbox, but focusing on Xbox as a means of connecting cloud-based development services to game developers, via Azure. Which IMO belies their main intentions with Xbox as a brand amongst the rest of the company's operations, longer-term).

Just because its too late, doesnt mean you cant invest in.

I agree, but different customers are going to feel differently about that. Ultimately, Microsoft needs enough customers who see it like you or I, versus customers who see it some other way where they just don't consider Microsoft as a purchase option when it comes to buying a games console.

So you have no idea then. Got it.

Lol

And that is a huge success. This is the growth of the service so far.

I'm aware of this, the source is correct, but I'll tell you why I mentioned GamePass sub growth. It's because I have a bone to pick with Microsoft not investing into literally any VR solution on Xbox, even going as far as to call it niche, yet devices like Oculus Quest sold 10 million units in a single year.

In other words, a "super niche" VR device like Oculus sold more units in one year, than a supposedly non-niche streaming service like GamePass gained in subscribers during the same one-year period. So it was a bit puzzling to see all this push and investment into GamePass for them, while simultaneously talking down VR, when the real reason they were doing that was because they had no VR device of their own (despite promising VR with the One X).

We've even gotten recent news of them opening up VR for...everything but Xbox consoles. When they could simply whitelist an existing VR headset, or co-develop a headset with another company usable on Xbox & PC, and resolve that problem. But they don't care, and that's the issue.

The service wont slow down, until the console reachs a certain number. PC exist too, which increases the userbase. It would hit a market cap. But that depends on how far is MS is pushing.

The service is already slowing down on console, did you miss Phil's own statement on this? And we know XBO consoles are at some 50 million units, Series consoles are (very likely) around 14.5 million (sold-through) right now, maybe 15 million sold-through by this point or nearing that. And yet it's seemingly already slowing down in growth on the console? Again this is Phil Spencer's own words, or would you say he is lying or not knowing of the operations within the division he himself oversees operations in?

Yes they have PC GamePass, but the split of that 25 million absolutely does not favor the PC platform, so even if they saw say a 100% increase YoY for the service on PC, if that's going from 4 million subs to 8 million, that isn't very much compared to the numbers on console (which are closing). And who's to say the ceiling for growth on PC is higher than that on console? Who's to say the ARPU for PC GamePass is similar to that on console?

I will say though, personally, PC GamePass is definitely the better value between it and the Xbox version. So if I were to sub to any version, it'd easily be the PC one.

2022 e3 showed the road map for 1 year gamepass release. That is console investment in action.
2022 was dry for 1st party games, and I wont pretend it doesnt exist though.

There wasn't an E3 this year; the Xbox & Bethesda Showcase is not a replacement for E3.

Beyond that, MS did the exact same in 2020, and 2021, that you're saying they did this year. With a lot of the same games shown in the previous years, at that!

Same thing for xbox one. Suffered massively from lack of 1st party, and 3rd party exclusives like x360. Not to mention the infamous e3 TV.

All you need to look is their studios chart. You can make your mind after that.

I know what the studio chart looks like, but that's all it is: a chart. A list of names. People play games that actually release, not JPEG image list wars.
 
Top Bottom