President Trump will deliver a prime-time address Tuesday, 9PM

insanexer

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Jun 22, 2015
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Makes it sound like the wall fell down and there are illegals pouring into the country. I really doubt this money he's requesting would do anything to help. It's not like the wall will go up the next day.
Um, their were 50,000 border arrest for 3 months in a row at the end of 2018.
 

Arkage

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You can link polls 'til the cows come home, but the kind of people you are trying to influence don't place any value in polls, myself included. This is the consequence of the media repeatedly crying wolf and the obviously distorted pre-election polls that predicted Clinton winning by a landslide. Journalistic standards and respecting the audience's intelligence are so important because the minute they think you're lying, they tune out forever. Your polls may well be accurate, but the well has been poisoned, so you're shouting into the void.
In relation to election polls I've only trusted 538, which gave Trump a ~30% of winning, which is pretty damn reasonable considering he won by the skin of his teeth in a handful of rust belt states, some by 10k vote margins. The election was historic in that the loser won the popular vote by 3 million votes, which is literally unheard of. While it's fair to be skeptical when you see sketchy methodology or error percentages or sampling sizes, just burying your head in the sand saying "all polls lie" isn't a good solution. The only answer to bad polls is better polls.

It reminds me of the same complaints made against weather forcasters. Yes, sometimes they get it get it wrong because they're always talking in probabilities. But most of the time they're right. People just don't remember that 95% of the days were predicted correctly, they instead remember the one sleet storm that was unexpected and say FUCK THESE GUYS THEY KNOW NOTHING. Meanwhile they check the weather report for next week.
 
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insanexer

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Jun 22, 2015
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In relation to election polls I've only trusted 538, which gave Trump a ~30% of winning, which is pretty damn reasonable considering he won by the skin of his teeth in a handful of rust belt states, some by 10k vote margins. the election was historic in that the loser won the popular vote by 3 million votes, which is literally unheard of. While it's fair to be skeptical when you see sketchy methodology or error percentages or sampling sizes, just burying your head in the sand saying "all polls lie" isn't a good solution. The only answer to bad polls is better polls.

It reminds me of the same complaints made against weather forcasters. Yes, sometimes they get it get it wrong because they're always talking in probabilities. But most of the time they're right. People just don't remember that 95% of the days were predicted correctly, they instead remember the one sleet storm that was unexpected and say FUCK THESE GUYS THEY KNOW NOTHING. Meanwhile they check the weather report for next week.
Five Thirty Eight gave Trump a 28.6% chance of winning on election day. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
 

Arkage

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Um, their were 50,000 border arrest for 3 months in a row at the end of 2018.


Clearly we are national emergency levels after this past decade of horrific flatlining and decreasing immigration. BUILD THAT WALL.
 

Cunth

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That’s still a fuckload of people. Why would you not want a wall
 

Dude Abides

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Gotta hand it to Trump. Every cult leader needs a fetish for the flock and he found a powerful one in The Wall.
 
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Arkage

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That’s still a fuckload of people. Why would you not want a wall
A better question: why would you make a wall which is two decades too late a centerpiece of your campaign, second only to promising to jail your political opponent and one time wedding guest.
 
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Cunth

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The campaign is over bro. What’s your objection to stopping illegal immigrants apart from your candidate didn’t win
 

Arkage

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The campaign is over bro. What’s your objection to stopping illegal immigrants apart from your candidate didn’t win
1) the agricultural industry is fucked if illegals get kicked out 2) I don't care if a wall is built but I want my tax money going to things that are more relevant to my interests, most people who didn't vote for Trump probably agree 3) Trump should've done this shit before the 2018 election, it's his own fault for wasting time on obamacare for half year and pointless airport bans 4) trump doesn't really give a shit about it himself as made obvious by his earlier comments on bypassing it for the budget but 5) if he doesn't get it done his rabid base who voted primarily due to slogans like "build that wall" will be pretty pissed at him, as he discovered after listening to some Fox news. this means less chance of him winning in 2020 as his only actual policy accomplishment will be a tax cut that primarily benefited the wealthy.
 

pimentel1

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Jul 22, 2018
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Fuck the wall. Immigrants seeking help should not be penalized for the actions of gang members. Pass harsher laws and untie cops hands so they can do their frickin jobs in combatting gang terrorism. God damn piece of shit Central Valley gangster. I warned the people via Splinter News. I do not want a wall. The actions of a few stupid, stupid gangsters will lead to a wall.

Those coming from Honduras, the caravan, they have skills. They are unemployed, but they have skills. They are unemployed because people didn’t give enough shits that their government was hijacked by a president that unconstitutionally expanded how long he can serve. Next time, give a shit Reset. Always focusing on the wrong things. Small things. How’d that Kevin Hart deal work out? Ellen went to bat for him, you said fuck Ellen. She called you trolls. Don Lemon called you bullies. How’s it working out, Reset? Watch how they all cave to preserve the sanctity of the Oscars. Gold false idols. How’s it working out?
 

matt404au

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Clearly we are national emergency levels after this past decade of horrific flatlining and decreasing immigration. BUILD THAT WALL.
Come on mate, you understand the difference between absolute numbers and rates of change. Your second graph shows that the sign of the rate of change has reversed, but the absolute number has only regressed slightly from peak. If you're going 100 mph in your car but not accelerating, you're still going 100 mph.

Your first graph is only for apprehensions and doesn't say anything about crossings unless you assume that the proportion of apprehensions to crossings is constant.
 

matt404au

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Fuck the wall. Immigrants seeking help should not be penalized for the actions of gang members. Pass harsher laws and untie cops hands so they can do their frickin jobs in combatting gang terrorism. God damn piece of shit Central Valley gangster. I warned the people via Splinter News. I do not want a wall. The actions of a few stupid, stupid gangsters will lead to a wall.

Those coming from Honduras, the caravan, they have skills. They are unemployed, but they have skills. They are unemployed because people didn’t give enough shits that their government was hijacked by a president that unconstitutionally expanded how long he can serve. Next time, give a shit Reset. Always focusing on the wrong things. Small things. How’d that Kevin Hart deal work out? Ellen went to bat for him, you said fuck Ellen. She called you trolls. Don Lemon called you bullies. How’s it working out, Reset? Watch how they all cave to preserve the sanctity of the Oscars. Gold false idols. How’s it working out?
I agree, legal immigrants seeking to integrate into a new country and culture should not be adversely affected by a minority of criminals. Illegal immigrants, however...
 

matt404au

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In relation to election polls I've only trusted 538, which gave Trump a ~30% of winning, which is pretty damn reasonable considering he won by the skin of his teeth in a handful of rust belt states, some by 10k vote margins. The election was historic in that the loser won the popular vote by 3 million votes, which is literally unheard of. While it's fair to be skeptical when you see sketchy methodology or error percentages or sampling sizes, just burying your head in the sand saying "all polls lie" isn't a good solution. The only answer to bad polls is better polls.

It reminds me of the same complaints made against weather forcasters. Yes, sometimes they get it get it wrong because they're always talking in probabilities. But most of the time they're right. People just don't remember that 95% of the days were predicted correctly, they instead remember the one sleet storm that was unexpected and say FUCK THESE GUYS THEY KNOW NOTHING. Meanwhile they check the weather report for next week.
Righto, but weather forecasts are highly unlikely to be influenced by politics, unless your goal is to kill all gingers by telling them the UV index will be low.
 

MrTickles

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Feb 22, 2018
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Immigrants seeking help
...have a legitimate reason for refuge, and can therefore enter via border crossings and make a strong case for residency. Illegal immigrants should be treated as criminals.
 

Gander

Banned
May 17, 2018
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Everybody agrees that Trump is self centered. Whatever this money is for it's serve him and some way. It could be to keep a campaign promise to make him look good or (my guess) pay his legal fees. Either way he could give two shits about protecting the American people. If cared about security he wouldn't have shutdown the gov't and put TSA workers at our airports out of work.
 

weltalldx

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Feb 25, 2017
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Come on mate, you understand the difference between absolute numbers and rates of change. Your second graph shows that the sign of the rate of change has reversed, but the absolute number has only regressed slightly from peak. If you're going 100 mph in your car but not accelerating, you're still going 100 mph.

Your first graph is only for apprehensions and doesn't say anything about crossings unless you assume that the proportion of apprehensions to crossings is constant.
Judging from the other thread, he doesn't believe in IQ, so things like rate of change, regression to the mean, plateau effect are beyond his comprehension. He also claims to be teaching in inner-cities where charter schools/private schools don't teach grit education.

Watch him appeal to emotion or calling you racist,sexist,xenophobic for not wanting criminals(when you enter a country illegal you have committed a crime) in your state/city/neighborhood.
 

Arkage

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Righto, but weather forecasts are highly unlikely to be influenced by politics, unless your goal is to kill all gingers by telling them the UV index will be low.
Well then it's on you to prove their statisticians or polls are politically biased. RNC polling thought Trump would lose. Rasmussen, which is historically a hard conservative leaning site, had Clinton winning. Fox News had Hillary winning by an even wider margin.


Judging from the other thread, he doesn't believe in IQ, so things like rate of change, regression to the mean, plateau effect are beyond his comprehension. He also claims to be teaching in inner-cities where charter schools/private schools don't teach grit education.

Watch him appeal to emotion or calling you racist,sexist,xenophobic for not wanting criminals(when you enter a country illegal you have committed a crime) in your state/city/neighborhood.
 
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ssolitare

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A better question: why would you make a wall which is two decades too late a centerpiece of your campaign, second only to promising to jail your political opponent and one time wedding guest.
I've been saying this entire time that Trump was too late, but people still eat it up because they've been given, handed something to hate. One dog barks at rustling leaves and the rest in the neighborhood start too.
 
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matt404au

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Well then it's on you to prove their statisticians or polls are politically biased. RNC polling thought Trump would lose. Rasmussen, which is historically a hard conservative leaning site, had Clinton winning. Fox News had Hillary winning by an even wider margin.
Not really. This is one example where the court of public opinion (not a real court) actually matters. How do you ensure that the poll demographics are representative of the voting base if half of it doesn't trust polls?
 

Sub_Level

wants to fuck an Asian grill.
Apr 9, 2009
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Trump's implication that the wall switched from concrete to steel because of democrats makes it clear the wall is security theatre. I would think the material of a barrier would be pretty fundamental to its effectiveness and function. Why compromise on that? Because its easier to pass and more palatable to the masses.
 

Arkage

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Just more evidence that the two rational Republicans on Fox News are Chris Wallace and Shep Smith. Though good on Fox producers for letting these two lead the conversation.

Not really. This is one example where the court of public opinion (not a real court) actually matters. How do you ensure that the poll demographics are representative of the voting base if half of it doesn't trust polls?
Not trusting polls doesn't mean you would refuse to participate in them or lie to them. In fact one could argue that the people who are most skeptical of polls are most likely to participate and give honest answer as they want their truth to be heard. Though honestly it's impossible to say one way or the other, it's all armchair psychology.
 

matt404au

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Just more evidence that the two rational Republicans on Fox News are Chris Wallace and Shep Smith. Though good on Fox producers for letting these two lead the conversation.



Not trusting polls doesn't mean you would refuse to participate in them or lie to them. In fact one could argue that the people who are most skeptical of polls are most likely to participate and give honest answer as they want their truth to be heard. Though honestly it's impossible to say one way or the other, it's all armchair psychology.
How do you figure the bolded? Is that not armchair psychology?

It's not like I'm just pulling this inference out of my ass. It should be quite obvious that if the polls were predicting A, and B happened, they got something wrong. With respect to politics, the most obvious answer is that the demographics weren't representative of the voting base, especially if it's a problem common to many polls. Do you really think your average Trump supporter would be jumping out of their seat to participate in a "fake news" poll?
 

Cunth

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I've been saying this entire time that Trump was too late, but people still eat it up because they've been given, handed something to hate. One dog barks at rustling leaves and the rest in the neighborhood start too.
‘It’s too late anyway’ - the catchphrase of people with no ambition, which is pretty much every online sjw
 

ssolitare

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Come on mate, you understand the difference between absolute numbers and rates of change. Your second graph shows that the sign of the rate of change has reversed, but the absolute number has only regressed slightly from peak. If you're going 100 mph in your car but not accelerating, you're still going 100 mph.

Your first graph is only for apprehensions and doesn't say anything about crossings unless you assume that the proportion of apprehensions to crossings is constant.
Gotta do your research man. Pair this information with that second graph.

There were 10.7 million unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. in 2016, representing 3.3% of the total U.S. population that year. The 2016 unauthorized immigrant total is a 13% decline from the peak of 12.2 million in 2007, when this group was 4% of the U.S. population.
The number of Mexican unauthorized immigrants declined since 2007, but the total from other nations changed little. Mexicans made up half of all unauthorized immigrants in 2016, according to the Center’s estimate, compared with 57% in 2007. Their numbers (and share of the total) have been declining in recent years: There were 5.4 million Mexican unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. in 2016, down from 6.9 million in 2007.

Meanwhile, the total from other nations, 5.2 million in 2016, remained about the same as in 2007, when it was 5.3 million. The number of unauthorized immigrants has grown since 2007 only from one birth region: Central America, from 1.5 million that year to nearly 1.9 million in 2016. This growth was fueled mainly by immigrants from the Northern Triangle nations of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.

The totals also went down over the 2007-2016 period from South America and the combined region of Europe plus Canada. The remaining regions (the Caribbean, Asia, Middle East-North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world) did not change significantly in that time
‘It’s too late anyway’ - the catchphrase of people with no ambition, which is pretty much every online sjw
I know that in your old age you've gained more wisdom than this. So I'm gonna give you the benefit of the doubt.
 
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Arkage

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How do you figure the bolded? Is that not armchair psychology?

It's not like I'm just pulling this inference out of my ass. It should be quite obvious that if the polls were predicting A, and B happened, they got something wrong. With respect to politics, the most obvious answer is that the demographics weren't representative of the voting base, especially if it's a problem common to many polls. Do you really think your average Trump supporter would be jumping out of their seat to participate in a "fake news" poll?
The problem is many forecasting models base their numbers strongly on the popular vote, which in this case proved less meaningful due to the particular nature of the electoral college weighing. And this also plays into the error rating for models, in which Trump managed to perfectly align their possible error rate with the rust belt. In particular I remember hearing that the unusually high number of undeclared independents in the rust states who essentially tipped the election largely went for Trump (3 to 2) in the end, which was enough to swing those states. Now whether you want to view this as them purposefully withholding who they were going to vote for out of "shame/shyness" (one theory) or cynicism (your theory to some extent) or them just being plain undecided up until the very day of (what I find most likely) is hard to say. But this stuff was two years ago so I don't remember very clearly. This podcast goes into it.
 
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matt404au

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The problem is many forecasting models base their numbers strongly on the popular vote, which in this case proved less meaningful due to the particular nature of the electoral college weighing. And this also plays into the error rating for models, in which Trump managed to perfectly align their possible error rate with the rust belt. In particular I remember hearing that the unusually high number of undeclared independents in the rust states who essentially tipped the election largely went for Trump (3 to 2) in the end, which was enough to swing those states. Now whether you want to view this as them purposefully withholding who they were going to vote for out of "shame/shyness" (one theory) or cynicism (your theory to some extent) or them just being plain undecided up until the very day of (what I find most likely) is hard to say. But this stuff was two years ago so I don't remember very clearly. This podcast goes into it.
This supports my argument though, so we agree?
 

Arkage

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This supports my argument though, so we agree?
If your argument is that cynicism about polling prevented rust-state independents from voicing their support of Trump, then it's possible of course but it's a very particular argument for a very specialized set of qualifiers. This kind of psychological game seems like it would play out differently for general policy questions. I.E. there may be an incentive to deceive a poll about your voting choice if you still have an amount power over the outcome, like voting for Trump by a significant margin. But in the case of general policy questions or favorability questions the individual being polled has no real incentive to lie as the narrative the numbers form will not be given a "moment of truth" like an actual election provides.
 
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D

Deleted member 1235

Unconfirmed Member
And they should never have to hear spanish or think about MS-13 if the government is doing its job.
‘They should never have to hear Spanish’ is one of the most shocking opinions I’ve ever heard, I can’t imagine either living my life like that, or wanting to.

Even the idea of living in such isolation and liking that fills me with dread.

The idea that standard legal immigration should never bring another language with it also makes me suspect you’re deeply culturally ignorant and few the governments job as ‘keep them all out’
 

Teletraan1

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X is on the decline so fuck it. Yeah right. You wouldn't apply that to AIDS being on the decline so fuck it. Or unarmed blacks being killed by cops is on the decline so fuck it Kaepernick can go slither away back to just being an unemployed QB. Racism in western countries has observably been on the decline for decades, imagine someone honestly arguing that racism was worse in the 60s so it is not a problem worth fixing today. X is on the decline is a piss poor argument when dealing with anything that is still an addressable issue today. Those charts also only covers apprehensions. When these partisan hacks that are suddenly against 5.7B for a wall were funneling 8x more than that towards border security during those high points I sure hope they got more arrests out of that.

As usual nobody is acknowledging that he brought up more than a wall as part of his latest proposal that is being brought to the table tomorrow. His ask also includes cutting edge technology for detecting drugs, weapons etc. More agents, extra judiciary to help process the absolute backlog, bed space, humanitarian and medical support. He was also looking for the closure of border policy loopholes. The proposal was developed by law enforcement professionals at the DHS. (I guess it is fine to question your security apparatus this week) It looks like a comprehensive border security package to me which is what people have been asking for instead of the wall. The more vectors closed off the more focused you can be on what remains. Reducing it to just herp derp wall makes me question if your country's biggest problem is actually education. Or was that part edited out of the DNC approved fact checked version of this video?
 

ssolitare

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Jan 12, 2009
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‘It’s too late anyway’ - the catchphrase of people with no ambition, which is pretty much every online sjw
As usual nobody is acknowledging that he brought up more than a wall as part of his latest proposal that is being brought to the table tomorrow. His ask also includes cutting edge technology for detecting drugs, weapons etc. More agents, extra judiciary to help process the absolute backlog, bed space, humanitarian and medical support. He was also looking for the closure of border policy loopholes. The proposal was developed by law enforcement professionals at the DHS. (I guess it is fine to question your security apparatus this week) It looks like a comprehensive border security package to me which is what people have been asking for instead of the wall. The more vectors closed off the more focused you can be on what remains. Reducing it to just herp derp wall makes me question if your country's biggest problem is actually education. Or was that part edited out of the DNC approved fact checked version of this video?
Take the wall funding out problem solved.
 
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MrTickles

Gold Member
Feb 22, 2018
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muh chyna.

The gangs subsist on cross border smuggling of drugs. Cut the lifeline and they go belly up. See the fate of the sicilian mafia. They ain't shit no more. No cash no power.
 
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pramod

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Oct 24, 2017
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1) the agricultural industry is fucked if illegals get kicked out 2) I don't care if a wall is built but I want my tax money going to things that are more relevant to my interests, most people who didn't vote for Trump probably agree 3) Trump should've done this shit before the 2018 election, it's his own fault for wasting time on obamacare for half year and pointless airport bans 4) trump doesn't really give a shit about it himself as made obvious by his earlier comments on bypassing it for the budget but 5) if he doesn't get it done his rabid base who voted primarily due to slogans like "build that wall" will be pretty pissed at him, as he discovered after listening to some Fox news. this means less chance of him winning in 2020 as his only actual policy accomplishment will be a tax cut that primarily benefited the wealthy.
I totally agree with this. That's why I never understood the timing of Trump making this "last stand" on the wall. The time to do this would have been right after he won. When he passed the last budget without any wall funding, me and most other people have assumed he had given up on ever getting the wall, but he suddenly decided now is the time to go all in, when the momentum and possibility of success is almost zero. It just doesn't make any sense, unless there was some weird agreement we don't know about between him and Mitch McConnell, maybe Trump was promised that he will get the wall only after he passed tax cuts and repealing Obamacare. Who knows.
 

120v

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It just doesn't make any sense, unless there was some weird agreement we don't know about between him and Mitch McConnell, maybe Trump was promised that he will get the wall only after he passed tax cuts and repealing Obamacare. Who knows.
fox and friends told him not to sign off on this year's budget

that is not a joke
 
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https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/01/trump-networks/579697/

On tuesday night, Donald Trump is planning to give an address on immigration, the southern border, and the government shutdown that has arisen from his insistence that any budget measure must include money for “the wall.”

When plans for the speech were announced on Monday evening, I opined on Twitter that it would be better for the major broadcasts not to carry the speech. There would have been crystal-clear precedent for their turning him down: In 2014, when Barack Obama gave a speech on his immigration-policy plans, neither CBS nor NBC nor ABC aired it live, on the argument that circumstances made the message “too political.” A closer parallel would be hard to find.
The whole thing is like a bad WWE wrestling match.

Everybody is making a lot of money hand over fist as they fake outrage and bring on the same pundits to both sides every controversy.

When are people going to get down to business and have a honest discussion about how much illegal immigration are you willing to accept?
 

quickwhips

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Jan 26, 2009
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I've been saying this entire time that Trump was too late, but people still eat it up because they've been given, handed something to hate. One dog barks at rustling leaves and the rest in the neighborhood start too.
i don’t think they hate anything. They want people using legal immigration. People who jump in line of honest legal immigration suck. The only people hating seem to be the left.
 
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D

Deleted member 77995

Unconfirmed Member
X is on the decline so fuck it. Yeah right. You wouldn't apply that to AIDS being on the decline so fuck it. Or unarmed blacks being killed by cops is on the decline so fuck it Kaepernick can go slither away back to just being an unemployed QB. Racism in western countries has observably been on the decline for decades, imagine someone honestly arguing that racism was worse in the 60s so it is not a problem worth fixing today. X is on the decline is a piss poor argument when dealing with anything that is still an addressable issue today. Those charts also only covers apprehensions. When these partisan hacks that are suddenly against 5.7B for a wall were funneling 8x more than that towards border security during those high points I sure hope they got more arrests out of that.

As usual nobody is acknowledging that he brought up more than a wall as part of his latest proposal that is being brought to the table tomorrow. His ask also includes cutting edge technology for detecting drugs, weapons etc. More agents, extra judiciary to help process the absolute backlog, bed space, humanitarian and medical support. He was also looking for the closure of border policy loopholes. The proposal was developed by law enforcement professionals at the DHS. (I guess it is fine to question your security apparatus this week) It looks like a comprehensive border security package to me which is what people have been asking for instead of the wall. The more vectors closed off the more focused you can be on what remains. Reducing it to just herp derp wall makes me question if your country's biggest problem is actually education. Or was that part edited out of the DNC approved fact checked version of this video?
Thing is Democrats have been pushing for more border security, increased number of border patrol personnel, more thorough screening at points of entry, etc. The difference right now is Trump and McConnell are holding part of the government hostage and unwilling to compromise as they seemingly forgot they had two years to get funding through. Give people their income back, make the government work again, then debate and hash out the specifics. Trump's inability to get funding after the last two years is his failure as a president.
 

appaws

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‘They should never have to hear Spanish’ is one of the most shocking opinions I’ve ever heard, I can’t imagine either living my life like that, or wanting to.

Even the idea of living in such isolation and liking that fills me with dread.

The idea that standard legal immigration should never bring another language with it also makes me suspect you’re deeply culturally ignorant and few the governments job as ‘keep them all out’
We don't need any more "standard" legal immigration. It should be "standard" that our elected officials put our own people first. We need to reverse the post-1965 attempt at culturally engineering a compliant consumerist population, which the American people would NEVER have approved if it had been presented to them honestly.
 

Proteus

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Apr 8, 2006
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Stop putting your border control and immigration chips all on Donald Trump. Dude is a basket case. Of course, don't put it on anyone advocating for open boarders with some kumbaya shit either.

Is there not a reasonable voice out there anymore?