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Prey's debut sales in the UK seem quite low

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Short version:
- Prey seems to have debuted with between 17K to maybe 25K sales in the UK.
- This is much lower than Dishonored 1, Dishonored 2, or any other recent Bethesda game this generation. You can think of it as half of Dishonored 2 or a third of Dishonored 1 if that helps approximate.
- There's a lot of data in the quotes below if you want to compare more specifically.
- For reference, Deus Ex: Mankind Divided debuted with ~38K, and that got the series killed.

Expanded information:

That estimate is not correct, Dishonored sold about 72,000 units in its debut.

(Upweighted to 100%)

[Week 41, 2012] DISHONORED (BETHESDA SOFTWORKS) - 72,000 / NEW
[Week 21, 2014] WOLFENSTEIN: THE NEW ORDER (BETHESDA SOFTWORKS) - 82,000 / NEW
[Week 19, 2016] DOOM (BETHESDA SOFTWORKS) - 63,000 / NEW
[Week 45, 2016] DISHONORED 2 (BETHESDA SOFTWORKS) - 42,000 / NEW

Thank you! I'll split out a thread in a bit.

Would 20-25K with a ceiling of 30K (if Mario Kart was 100% of Switch software sales in April) be an appropriate estimate for Prey?
Based on Watch Dogs we calculated that the floor for Mario Kart 8 was about 58,000 units, please note that there is always a certain margin of error that accumulates every week because of the rounding. Therefore, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe first week should be > 61,000 once we upweight it to 100% of the market. I upweight in this case because total marked data is always extrapolated to 100% of the market.

So based on the data we got this week we can say that Prey at least sold 17,000 units (100%). I would lower the ceiling of 30,000 units (100%) because The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild was every week of April in the top 10, and that is at least some thousands of units per week. Then there is 1-2 Switch that also charted in the top 40 every week.
The 71% drop week over week which was used to create this ceiling came from here: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...rt-8-deluxe-holds-off-prey-in-uk-boxed-charts
 

Tecnniqe

Banned
I think it might pick itself up. At least digitally on Steam its been hovering on the Top 5 for a while.

But this might also be their new review system kicking in full effect for a more "unknown" named title.
 

Zedark

Member
It's a shame, since it seems to be a good game. Maybe Bethesda should reconsider their review policy as well, since I can't imagine it is very good for a relatively unknown title like this.
 

Vash63

Member
Reboot of an IP with no reviews at or near release, no demo on PC and performance issues on the PS4 demo.

Not too surprising. I might've bought it on PC if it had a demo.
 

Krakn3Dfx

Member
That's a shame, it's been a great game so far, hopefully it has a long tail, would love to see more of that universe at some point.

Not too surprising. I might've bought it on PC if it had a demo.

That's what Steam refunds are for according to Bethesda.
 

oti

Banned
It should sell better over the next few weeks and months. Word of mouth is quite positive on this one.
 

HStallion

Now what's the next step in your master plan?
Sad as the game seems pretty cool from the previews I saw. Haven't had the time to touch the demo but I was hoping to pick it up in the near future once I kill of Yakuza 0 and the last few huge games I have left from the first quarter of this year.
 
giphy.gif



The game has had zero advertisement. If I hadn't heard about the demo I would have thought it was still a year off.
 

Hasney

Member
Prey is already out?

I know, right? If I wasn't on GAF when the botched thread title for the demo came out, I'd have never noticed either.

0 marketing and 0 review copies mean that people aren't going to know until it's actually out.
 

blakep267

Member
I don't think it has to do with the review embargo. I'd say maybe a lack of marketing or people just aren't as interested in Dishonored or prey type games.
 

Iksenpets

Banned
Their marketing strategy on this one was nonexistent, other then quietly dumping a demo out there. Bethesda's no-reviews strategy worked out ok for known franchises like Doom, but it's crippling an unknown quantity like Prey. It sounds like buzz around the game is positive, and it's not really directly competing with anything at the moment. It should be able to do better than that if competently handled.

I don't think it has to do with the review embargo. I'd say maybe a lack of marketing or people just aren't as interested in Dishonored or prey type games.

The review blitz on a new release is a form of marketing though. Denying the game that chokes off a major source of attention.
 
No early reviews is a terrible idea. Good reviews can propel sales, just look at Horizon, Zelda and Persona. By not sending early review copies, you risk having less exposure and people might think there's no confidence in the product so they'll take a wait and see approach.
 

Gator86

Member
Great job, Bethesda, you fucks. Another high quality game in this genre seeing shit sales is depressing as hell.
 

Jakoo

Member
Not sure how it's fairing in the US, but I know that I personally am waiting for more critic reviews before pulling the trigger on my end.

Bethesda's review policy might make sense for games like Fallout and The Elder Scrolls which are known entities with built in audiences, but for a new (or in this case, re-imagined) franchise like this, the embargo definitively kept me from buying the game at launch for sure.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I added a quick note about Deus Ex: Mankind Divided's sales, since that's also an immersive sim, and a game that did badly enough to get the series killed.

It debuted at ~38K.
 

Mathieran

Banned
I haven't bought it yet but will at some point. Hopefully the good reviews and positive word of mouth will help increase sales
 
I had no idea Prey was out or even coming until I start wondering why there was a thread floating about.

I didn't even know we had seen gameplay. For whatever reason it passed me by entirely and I'm reading up on games every damn day.

Last week if you told me you wanted to see it at e3 I would have responded "yeah me too."
 

Kuraudo

Banned
Lack of marketing to compensate for lack of exposure due to no early reviews. Hopefully word of mouth might help it pick up.
 

Anung

Un Rama
Hopefully word of mouth helps it pick up momentum as it's a great game. Doom can get away with bethesda's review BS because it's Doom but Prey needed that positive review push to signal boost it.
 
Anecdotally I've seen TV marketing here in the States, especially on ESPN, but I also feel like there isn't a lot of buzz online or amongst friends that play a lot of games. Mind-share is definitely low compared to other recent releases.

Could be yet another game that is critically a success but doesn't necessarily translate to sales. Though first I'd like to hear more about worldwide units and also those that include digital purchases, to get a better sense for overall copies sold.
 

Certinty

Member
Didn't even know this was out.

If Dishonored 2 was anything to go by, it won't be long until this reaches sub £20.
 

Mivey

Member
I guess since marketing for AAA is often almost as expensive as the actual development costs, Beth just wanted to find out what happens when you save on it.
I value their scientific contribution to gaming.
 
This is the second "disappointment" for Arkane, right?

I remember reading Dishonored 2 also didn't do too hot. Could this be a result of Bethesda insisting on no longer giving review copies for games?
 

kubus

Member
I seriously had no idea this game was already out... I thought it was still ways off from release. I was just thinking "wait where was the review thread" but apparently Bethesda pulled a Bethesda again?

RIP...

edit: oh, apparently there is a review thread on GAF... I just completely missed it.
 
Isn't the studio that made this game already owned by Zenimax? If so, I don't understand their strategy with this game. Who are they going to cripple financially then buy them cheaply?
 
I saw one ad last night on Adult Swim after midnight. Not YT ads so far and I watch a lot of gaming related stuff on YT.

To torre...I don't believe it helps them.
 
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