PS4 initial costing analysis [Updated]

Z

zomgbbqftw

Banned
Jan 21, 2011
14,540
6
0
Revised analysis.

APU (CPU/GPU) - 65-80
8GB GDDR5 - 80-105
OS Chip (supposedly ARM based) - 10-18
Video encode/decode chip - 0 (included in OS chip, we figure)
Blu-ray drive - 25-35
Hard drive - 30-35
I/O - 9-12
Wireless chip + antenna - 4
HDMI+HDCP - 11-15
Other - 10-30
DS4 - 20-29
Mono headset - 3
Cabling/misc - 3

Total parts/silicon - 272-364

Other costs:

Internal PSU - 27-40
Cooling - 33-50
Assembly - 15-20

Total estimated system cost (no shipping and packaging) - 390-430 (Does not include PS Camera since it is not bundled)

Accessories:

PS4 Eye -12-20

All figures in USD.

Please, please, please remember that this is based on the specification only and cost prices that we know, without a PS4 in the hand there will be mistakes.



Old figures below

So a couple of us at the bank have done a costing analysis this morning. I won't be able to give exact figures, as if we ever decide to release them publicly it will definitely blow my cover.

All figures in USD.

APU (CPU/GPU) - 85-90
8GB GDDR5 - 110-140
OS Chip (supposedly ARM based) - 12-18
Video encode/decode chip - 8-12
Blu-ray drive - 18-25
Hard drive - 38-50
I/O - 9-12
Wireless chip + antenna - 4
HDMI+HDCP - 11-15
Other - 25-35

Total - 320-401

Accessories:

DS4 - 18-30
PS4 Eye -$12-20
Mono headset - 3
Cabling/misc - 3

Unknown/Alpha:

Internal PSU - 25-55
Cooling - 20-38
Assembly - 13 (Based on being made in China, for made in Japan, make that ~ $45)

Total estimated system cost (no shipping and packaging) - $450-490

These figures are preliminary, and do not include assembly costs, power costs, cooling or shipping as the final design has not been shown and can't be estimated at this time.

Please, please, please remember that this is based on the specification only and cost prices that we know, without a PS4 in the hand there will be mistakes.
Click to expand...
 
R

raven777

Member
Jan 30, 2012
17,605
0
0
is this based on retail prices, or actually what Sony would pay by buying massive amounts?
 
L

LukeTim

Member
Dec 6, 2012
738
0
0
So, assuming Sony are willing to make a loss on each, the PS4 could possibly be surprisingly cheap?
 
R

Rice-Eater

Member
Aug 10, 2006
13,969
0
930
Well the picture you painted screams $400 as the entry price. And I would be very pleased with that if it is the case. They can release a premium model for $500 with PS Eye, PS+ trial, bigger HDD, and other junk for all I care. As long as the cheaper model is $400 to begin with.
 
D

Delusibeta

Banned
Feb 18, 2012
10,875
0
0
delusibeta.tumblr.com
Basically, it depends on how much Sony is prepared to lose per console. $400 is possible, but I think $500 is more likely. I wouldn't be too surprised if you underestimated the cost of the CPU/GPU combo, if the rumours that it's based on Radeon 7700+ are true.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
855
28
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
The PSEye seems standard for every SKU to me, since it works with the light on DS4. And all the other costs are ignored since...we can't calculate them as well as components costs. I still go with 449.99 $ as lowest price possible (and IMHO, the actual entry price).
 
Z

zomgbbqftw

Banned
Jan 21, 2011
14,540
6
0
ekim said:
Are those B2B prices or end-consumer list prices?
Click to expand...
B2B prices. Since when can the consumer buy GDDR5 chips?

Rice-Eater said:
Well the picture you painted is screams $400 as the entry price. And I would be very pleased with that if it is the case. They can release a premium model for $500 with PS Eye, PS+ trial, bigger HDD, and other junk for all I care. As long as the cheaper model is $400 to begin with.
Click to expand...
They would lose money at $399 because the figures don't include assembly, shipping, cooling and power which can add a significant amount to the final cost.

madmackem said:
The big cost is not the parts but R&D.
Click to expand...
R&D costs are said to be much lower this time, and anyway, that cost is already sunk, there is no getting it back and amazingly SCE was profitable throughout the timeframe that PS4 was being developed.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Jul 31, 2007
39,660
0
0
I foresee $499 at minimum.
 
H

Herb Alpert

Member
Nov 20, 2012
4,776
0
440
Paris, France
LukeTim said:
So, assuming Sony are willing to make a loss on each, the PS4 could possibly be surprisingly cheap?
Click to expand...
To this amount, you have to add R&D, marketing, boxing, all this stuff. The costs are however reduced due to the amount.
They probably add a monthly fee system for the social features, which will reduce the cost.

I am not sure, but at launch the vita was evaluated around 170, and they sold it at a loss at 250. They tried to make money on memory card, which was not very smart in the way it was done.

The PS4 will not be cheap. I see it as a gamble, they go all-in. Either they sell cheap or they take a significant loss. Again. In my opinion, they're trying to kill the bee with the bazooka.
Graphics look pretty though.
 
N

NotLiquid

Member
Aug 30, 2012
17,950
0
0
Not expecting it to go down below $400 if that's the case, and even then I feel it'd be reasonable to expect 50 or so more to that.
 
M

massoluk

Banned
Dec 19, 2011
22,036
0
0
zomgbbqftw said:
So a couple of us at the bank have done a costing analysis this morning. I won't be able to give exact figures, as if we ever decide to release them publicly it will definitely blow my cover.

All figures in USD.

Total - 320-401

These figures are preliminary, and do not include assembly costs, power costs, cooling or shipping as the final design has not been shown and can't be estimated at this time.

Please, please, please remember that this is based on the specification only and cost prices that we know, without a PS4 in the hand there will be mistakes.
Click to expand...
Investment bank or something? Anyway, I kinda agree with your estimate, those RAM can't be cheap.
 
V

verbum

Member
Oct 13, 2009
5,306
0
0
If the $529 upper SKU price is real, that would mean with an extra controller @ $50, a game @ $60, and if I buy local with an 8% sales tax (Georgia state sales tax plus city/county sales tax), I would pay around $690 out the door. $640 on Amazon.
 
P

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Apr 23, 2010
13,063
0
730
$450 to $480 I think. Maybe a $530 sku with Move Controller, 3 month Gakai/Playstation World trial, and a game packed in.
 
J

Jburton

Banned
Dec 25, 2010
8,697
0
0
Ireland
£359.99 UK price.


That's my bet.



OP your cost list looks ok, the ARM chip and the video encode chip are probably off by about 50%.
 
S

spwolf

Member
Feb 15, 2007
16,283
0
0
zomgbbqftw said:
So a couple of us at the bank have done a costing analysis this morning. I won't be able to give exact figures, as if we ever decide to release them publicly it will definitely blow my cover.

All figures in USD.

APU (CPU/GPU) - 85-90
8GB GDDR5 - 110-140
OS Chip (supposedly ARM based) - 12-18
Video encode/decode chip - 8-12
Blu-ray drive - 18-25
Hard drive - 38-50
I/O - 9-12
Wireless chip + antenna - 4
HDMI+HDCP - 11-15
Other - 25-35

Total - 320-401

These figures are preliminary, and do not include assembly costs, power costs, cooling or shipping as the final design has not been shown and can't be estimated at this time.

Please, please, please remember that this is based on the specification only and cost prices that we know, without a PS4 in the hand there will be mistakes.
Click to expand...
without PSU, assembly, cooling? Probably another $80 missed? I am thinking they might have been able to reduce GDDR5 costs somehow.

Do we have PS3 latest costs? We have 2009 ones, not anything later than that.
 
A

AranhaHunter

Banned
Mar 20, 2006
10,669
0
0
$399/500GB
$499/1TB

Lose money on the core, break even or make a little money on the premium. All SKUs include one DS4, one headset (confirmed), one PSE4YE
 
R

Rad-

Member
Jan 31, 2009
15,331
0
680
Ouch, so it's actually even more expensive than I first thought. I hope Sony is ready to take a hit in the beginning and still launch this for 399. Anything more and I'm out.
 
L

LCfiner

Member
Feb 23, 2008
23,028
0
0
Montreal
Interesting. Still kinda amazing to me that they decided to put so much fast RAM in there. big cost driver.

I've been flip flopping in my head about whether a base model will cost 400 or 450.

I figure they'll have a higher end model at 500 (say, bigger HDD and camera) so that they have at least one box on shelves that won't lose them quite so much cash

if I had to bet, I'd say two models at $400 and $500. I think they'll be aggressive on base model pricing.
 
E

EGM1966

Member
Aug 5, 2011
10,354
0
0
UK
If accurate then I'm guessing $399 assuming Sony happy to launch at cost or slight loss to keep price down until production cost reductions kick in and focus on usual SW/services (and PSN Plus) to bring in profit initially.

Could be more depending on HDD option (or options) if Sony want to offer multiple HDD skus (if I was them I wouldn't personally - I'd just offer one sku and allow people to swap the HDD if they want a'la the PS3 at their own additional cost - HDD could be 320 or say 500GB).
 
Q

QaaQer

Member
Jun 13, 2012
11,333
0
0
People sometimes overestimate the cost of assembly and shipping. The labor required to make an ipad is around $10. you can probably stuff 10k consoles in a 40' container, which would cost $5k USD to ship from factory to South Lousiana or Houston ports. So 50 cents per console.

Cooling + powersupple could also be pretty low cost, although I have no clue what the TDP effect of 8GB of gddr5 is.

edit: and they had to put 8GB of ram in, or MS would win the marketing battle. Money well spent imo.
 
K

Kouriozan

Member
Mar 22, 2012
28,515
1
445
France
R&D + shipment + marketing.
Yeah I can see $399 if Sony is willing to sell this at a loss for some time.
Otherwise $449 is still fine if the games are worth it.
 
I

iamshadowlark

Banned
Jun 22, 2011
8,718
0
0
Interesting thread. ZOMGWTFBBQ seems pretty vested in these things to from prior conversations.

Definitely see maybe a $399/$499 sku split.
 
D

DBT85

Member
Oct 24, 2011
19,208
0
0
34
New Cross Gate, London
daninthemix said:
And that doesn't include a controller, which doesn't look cheap to me.
Click to expand...
It's got a light, a touch pad and a 3.5mm jack. These aren't going push the price up that much.

Also to remember about the RAM, they are potentially going to be ordering more of it than any one company ever has in history. Who knows how far that will bring costs down.
 
J

Jarnet87

Member
Mar 6, 2012
12,068
0
0
LukeTim said:
So, assuming Sony are willing to make a loss on each, the PS4 could possibly be surprisingly cheap?
Click to expand...
they were losing money when the PS3 system launched at $500 and $600 per unit, almost all consoles lose money per unit at first. With all the specs and cloud gaikai bullsh*t all I kept hearing in my head was $599 minimum. Sony may have changed some of their errors with the PS4, price is not going to be one of them me thinks.
 
F

frankie_baby

Member
May 3, 2007
18,401
0
0
Sony aren't in a position to eat a big loss, yeah some but not much, my crystal ball smells five hundred and ninety nine dollars, though again with a 499 SKU though this time they'll probably focus on the lower priced one
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom