PS5 coming at the end of 2020 according to analyst: high-spec hardware for under $500

Jan 18, 2017
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#51
I have no problem paying $499 for a ps5 it’s not that serious. They might both release a disc less version at $399 or something that’s similar to the xbl arcade console.
 
Nov 4, 2018
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#53
I think MS will have two SKUs. 299 and 499. the 499 will be very high end. 299. a bit faster than XB1X.

Sony. i hope they go for 500 and double down on best possible perf for that price. instead of 399. tho I have a feeling they will go with the 399 price tag

with inflation 399 is just not a lot to make a great piece of hardware really.
 
Jul 9, 2018
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#54
Because console gamers act poor as fuck and expect the moon for $399........ and then go and buy new iPhones, eat out every day, and do Starbuck runs in the afternoon...... and that's after they pay for microtrans, map packs, EA Ultimate Cards and other garbage. $100 for better specs is like a gold mine of money, then it's spent on cruddy gaming content.

I bet a gamer complaining about spending an extra $100 (or $20 for 5 years worth), can save $100 in a month just by eating out less. And if they did that, there's your $100.
save 100$ in a month by eating out less??????????? less = using more than 100$ I assume?

Is this an american thing again?

I dont even spend 100€ / 6 months by eating out and this is really common in my culture, eating out is on rare occasions or fast food once a month. You just make it sound like someone would eat out almost daily and it sounds too alien to me.

But yeah, I would rather pay 600€ than (499$ would turn into 550-600€, which is like 650-750$) getting cheaper but slower console. And people spend too much on new phones and other stuff yearly, that is true.

Im also sure that ps5 with 600€ price would sell less than 499 one.

I would rather think it as "buy 5 older games less and save that 100", or buy 2 launch games less and save 130€
 
Dec 3, 2013
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#57
One thing to keep in mind, Sony's probably going to get a much sweeter deal this time around with their vendors, since they're about to push 100 million by the summer.

So they'll probably get much more bang for the buck compared to their very first venture into R&D with AMD and the like.
 
Feb 8, 2018
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#58
There won't be a need for mid gen refresh like the PS4Pro.
HDMI 2.1 is a thing, 4K has been a thing for quite some time now.
All it needs to do is to be powerfull enough to support HDMI 2.1 full bandwidth and push those checkerboarded (the results are quite impressive) 4K pixels with dynamic HDR at 60fps.
Can't wait to see a game with realtime dynamic HDR implementation.
 
#59
This post and every future tech post I read is very interesting indeed, it also reminds me how little I know about current GPUs, jargon, roadmaps, etc. Could anyone kindly point to a source where I can read about the current state of graphic cards/processors/computers internals so I can stop being so misinformed?
 

Shin

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#61
This post and every future tech post I read is very interesting indeed, it also reminds me how little I know about current GPUs, jargon, roadmaps, etc. Could anyone kindly point to a source where I can read about the current state of graphic cards/processors/computers internals so I can stop being so misinformed?
Just use this thread, there's nothing wrong about willing and wanting to learn, if anything it's how a proper adult should behave so +1 :)

The heart of a console in it's current and foreseeable future is an APU (Accelerated Processing Unit), which is basically a CPU+GPU ducktaped together with some specific customization/instruction depending on the contractor.
You have your RAM (Random Access Memory) that comes in GDDR (Graphics Double Data Rate), DDR (minus the G and what you find in PC's as working memory), EDDR (embedded) and so forth.
Then you have yourself the bus width which is basically highway lanes/tunnel that data passes through, the wider the bus the faster data can pass through, denoted in bit (e.g. 192, 256, 384, 512-bit, etc etc, most common is 256 I think on PC's).

That's your basic idea of the key components so it depends really which exactly you want to know more of and what part of that component, there are a lot of people that are most likely willing to give a proper explanation and/or educated.
I know how it all works / come together and actively follow technology but would be hard pressed to re-tell the tale, but hopefully something from the above helps :p
 
Mar 19, 2013
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#62
You wont see a 12TF console for 400 bucks... thats not going to happen.

Scarlet Base = 6-7TF (400 or less)
PS5= 7-8TF (400)
Scarlet Pro = 9-10+TF (500)

People have to keep in check more things than just this TF numbers...
Nope.

12TFs at $399.

6-7TFs costs today less than $299... imagine 7nm in 2020.
 
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Aug 3, 2014
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#63
Yeap.

$399 12FTs 8xZen2 16GB

I just hope it come early... March 2020 ;)
"12FTs 8xZen2 16GB" what part about that is "high spec"? lol. it's 2019... those 8 core 16GB 12TF is so 2016/2017.

It will be more powerful, mark my words.
it needs to be. 8 core 16gb won't be enough to last until 2027 (assuming next gen is ~7 years) and especially if they want to do 4K 60fps. current consoles have 8 cores and 8-12GB RAM.

on PC 8 core 16GB is the lowest i'd go for a PC today. 12-16 core with 32GB is needed going forward.
 
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#64
Just use this thread, there's nothing wrong about willing and wanting to learn, if anything it's how a proper adult should behave so +1 :)

The heart of a console in it's current and foreseeable future is an APU (Accelerated Processing Unit), which is basically a CPU+GPU ducktaped together with some specific customization/instruction depending on the contractor.
You have your RAM (Random Access Memory) that comes in GDDR (Graphics Double Data Rate), DDR (minus the G and what you find in PC's as working memory), EDDR (embedded) and so forth.
Then you have yourself the bus width which is basically highway lanes/tunnel that data passes through, the wider the bus the faster data can pass through, denoted in bit (e.g. 192, 256, 384, 512-bit, etc etc, most common is 256 I think on PC's).

That's your basic idea of the key components so it depends really which exactly you want to know more of and what part of that component, there are a lot of people that are most likely willing to give a proper explanation and/or educated.
I know how it all works / come together and actively follow technology but would be hard pressed to re-tell the tale, but hopefully something from the above helps :p
Excellent explanation, thanks! Most of those concepts I did know about already however, my question was more in line with terms like “Zen”, “Navi”, what determines teraflops, etc.

I used to follow the tech world 10+ years ago and was building PCs myself but have since lost ground on the advancements and new terminology.
 
Likes: Shin

Shin

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Feb 4, 2013
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#65
People have to keep in check more things than just this TF numbers...
Here's a interesting breakdown from IHS from 2013: https://news.ihsmarkit.com/press-re...-breakeven-point-playstation-4-hardware-costs
Could probably retrace a handful of these vendors through part ID, press releases, conference calls, earnings etc etc to get a better idea of what might or will be in a future console.




A console itself doesn't or rather can't undergo big changes that would flip the BoM upside down, there's only so many ways you can build a box and/or components you can fit.
With that in mind we can use the old cost breakdown from IHS and update them according to inflation and all that and have ourselves an educated guess.
At the same time keep PS4 Pro 4.2TF in 2016 in mind and XBOX 6TF in 2017 on the same node but GPU refresh (590 is a refresh of 490 Radeo, no?) then count the years/gap till 2020.
You'd probably end up with 9-10TF for $399-499, but that doesn't factor in cost saving from the 7nm node and even more cost saving from 7nm EUV which MS/Sony will probably start using in 2021/2022.
As for R&D AMD fronts that (they said it themselves a while back) and given that they have a better footing now with so many custom/semi-custom jobs (Apple, HP, MS, Sony, etc etc) the cost should be almost identical if not maybe cheaper than 2013. My point is look at the parts that goes into a console it's not much different than previous generations, if anything it's more simplified and we can expect the same next-gen so it's easy to make an educated guess IMO.

 
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#67
There won't be a need for mid gen refresh like the PS4Pro.
HDMI 2.1 is a thing, 4K has been a thing for quite some time now.
All it needs to do is to be powerfull enough to support HDMI 2.1 full bandwidth and push those checkerboarded (the results are quite impressive) 4K pixels with dynamic HDR at 60fps.
Can't wait to see a game with realtime dynamic HDR implementation.
4K TVs are dirt cheap, TV manufacturers are going to want to push 8K next so we might see mid gen refresh again.
 
Likes: rəddəM
Aug 3, 2014
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#69
4K TVs are dirt cheap, TV manufacturers are going to want to push 8K next so we might see mid gen refresh again.
8K is not happening any time soon LOL.

Jeez, we don't even have consoles that can do 2160p as standard in all games without upscaling/checkerboarding and even on PC 4K 60fps is not standard yet....and you're already talking about 8K? look at this image to get an idea of what 8K is....



orange - 1080p - this is what PS4/XB1 renders at.
light green - 1440p - Pro/X games render at this and upscale/checkerboard.
blue - 1800p - Pro/X games render at this and upscale/checkerboard.
yellow - 2160p (4K) - some Pro/X games can do native 4K
dark green - 2880p (5K) - not even happening on PC yet but most likely will be what comes after 4K.
teal - 4320p (8K) - yeah good luck with this.
 
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Mar 19, 2013
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#71
The pace new die shrinks is happening I won’t be surprise with no mud-gen refresh next gen ;)

Mid gen refresh only happened because 28nm moved to 16nm.

The perspectives for something lower than 7nm in 2023 is pretty small.
 
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#72
The pace new die shrinks is happening I won’t be surprise with no mud-gen refresh next gen ;)
oh yeah because it's going so fast...

we probably will get a mid gen refresh but people need to be realistic of what they'll bring. i don't think any "PS5 Pro" or "XB2X" will be as significant as this generation. PS5/XB2 will likely make 4K 30fps standard. I can't see the Pro/X models increasing resolution much if at all. most likely this time around the focus will be on CPU to improve framerates. we're not gonna see consoles doing 5K/8K lol.
 

Shin

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#73
Excellent explanation, thanks! Most of those concepts I did know about already however, my question was more in line with terms like “Zen”, “Navi”, what determines teraflops, etc.

I used to follow the tech world 10+ years ago and was building PCs myself but have since lost ground on the advancements and new terminology.
Haha I know how you feel, long ago I used to build my own PC's as a hobby and because it was so much damn fun.
Even motivated a friend of mine by putting his PC together, he went on to be the head system admin at a very large hospital here in the Netherlands while I can't even put a PC together anymore lmao.

Short-track:
Zen is the codename (or core name rather) for AMD Ryzen CPU's, which in turn can also be found in their datacenter processors EPYC (well the release is the other way around but you get the idea).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zen_(microarchitecture) can't tell you exactly what is better as it's a long list of things that is and/or has changed from the CPU in the current generation of consoles (Xbox/PS - Jaguar, Switch uses nVidia Tegra X1).
Navi is the codename (it's all we have ATM though it's supposed to launch in Q2 this year) for AMD's next GPU but it's still GCN based (Graphics Core Next - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphics_Core_Next ) and will be build on the brand new 7 nanometer node.
As for the CPU side of things AMD has 5 generations planned out of their highly successful CPU line which provided a needed shake up in the PC market <3, as far as I know 3 generations are being developed simultaneously (Zen 1-3).
The original Zen was 12nm I think?, Zen+ is basically Zen but refreshed and running on 7nm, Zen2 is all new and is build on 7nm and will be released soon for consumers (forgot the date), Zen 3 (I think 7nm EUV) is due for 2020.
AMD got their CPU line in order and on track and can keep pushing and improving without much worries, the GPU side / Radeon is still quite a mess and the reboot with that arm might be after Navi...somewhere in 2020/2021.

As for teraflops CPU+GPU determines it in the end, it's hard to explain this part as it differs so much between nVidia and AMD even though both might be 5 teraflops the real world performance would be different.
The basic math is 64 CU (compute units, max is 64 ATM because of the GCN architecture limitation) x 64 SP (stream processor (AMD) / CUDA for nVidia, general term: Shader Processing Unit?) x2 (x2 because of 2 cycles per clock for memory) = teraflops = absolute power/raw power.
64 x 64 = 4096, 2x 1500MHz (or 3 GHz graphics memory speed, side note there's only fixed speed, no boost in consoles) = 12,288 teraflops (12.3 rounded of I guess)

I think I'm getting over my head with explanation and might give wrong info so I'll leave it at that and hope someone picks up with a better breakdown.
Pictures can say more than 1000 words, so here ya go:





 
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Leonidas

"Ask me about computers"
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#74
21 months seems like a long ways away. By late 2020 the (rumored) spec won't look too good.

The only thing that can save next-gen consoles tech-wise(IMO) is the inclusion of dedicated ray-tracing capabilities.
 
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May 27, 2018
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#76
You wont see a 12TF console for 400 bucks... thats not going to happen.

Scarlet Base = 6-7TF (400 or less)
PS5= 7-8TF (400)
Scarlet Pro = 9-10+TF (500)

People have to keep in check more things than just this TF numbers...
There are alot of people who have unrealistic expectations about next gen consoles, but if you think that Sony are going to launch in 2020 with an 8tf GPU then that's even more absurd.

PS5 will launch with a minimum 9tf gpu, but around 10tf would be more realistic. Scarlett X will target a much higher spec still.
 

Leonidas

"Ask me about computers"
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#77
Whether it's 10 Tflops or 12 Tflops from AMD, it won't make much of a difference, that's a similar level of performance, and in late 2020 that level of performance is going to be lower mid-range to mid-range.
Next-gen will be the smallest graphics leap in gaming history. At least if they added dedicated ray-tracing capabilities you could get effects that simply aren't possible in real-time on current gen consoles.
 
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Likes: rəddəM
Feb 8, 2018
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#78
4K TVs are dirt cheap, TV manufacturers are going to want to push 8K next so we might see mid gen refresh again.
8K is less plausible than ray tracing.
If the PS5 supports HDMI 2.1 full bandwidth and have a capable Blu-ray drive you surely will be able to enjoy 8K movies and Netflix.
But CONSOLE gaming in 8K? Idk...
If Sony opt to go with Ray Tracing we'll probably see 30fps again in Single Player with lots of checkerboard and DLSS and whatever other reconstruction technique may rise.
Beauty before responsiveness, RIGHT?!
And by the end of 2020 it won't see that impossible.
 
Likes: Tarkus98
Dec 20, 2018
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#80
There are alot of people who have unrealistic expectations about next gen consoles, but if you think that Sony are going to launch in 2020 with an 8tf GPU then that's even more absurd.

PS5 will launch with a minimum 9tf gpu, but around 10tf would be more realistic. Scarlett X will target a much higher spec still.
Thats really not absurd... XboxOneX launched in freaking 2017 with 6TF already and its costs 500 bucks. People expecting a PS5 with more than 8TF have ridiclious expectations and they forget that there is still the base PS4 which is a 1.8TF machine. So coming from that a PS5 with 8TF will be a big upgrade. The crucial upgrade nextgen will be the CPU


Nope.

12TFs at $399.

6-7TFs costs today less than $299... imagine 7nm in 2020.
Please...
A 6TF console is available right now and costs 500bucks.

A LOT of people will be disappointed with the PS5 specs thats for sure, especially the folks who expect anything beyond 9-10TF

I wish people could keep other things in mind. Just because we get 7nm doesnt mean everything will be cheaper...
 
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Nov 25, 2015
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#81
Whether it's 10 Tflops or 12 Tflops from AMD, it won't make much of a difference, that's a similar level of performance, and in late 2020 that level of performance is going to be lower mid-range to mid-range.
Next-gen will be the smallest graphics leap in gaming history. At least if they added dedicated ray-tracing capabilities you could get effects that simply aren't possible in real-time on current gen consoles.
Nah Ray-tracing looks like ass.

Thats really not absurd... XboxOneX launched in freaking 2017 with 6TF already and its costs 500 bucks. People expecting a PS5 with more than 8TF have ridiclious expectations and they forget that there is still the base PS4 which is a 1.8TF machine. So coming from that a PS5 with 8TF will be a big upgrade. The crucial upgrade nextgen will be the CPU



Please...
A 6TF console is available right now and costs 500bucks.

A LOT of people will be disappointed with the PS5 specs thats for sure, especially the folks who expect anything beyond 9-10TF

I wish people could keep other things in mind. Just because we get 7nm doesnt mean everything will be cheaper...
You can’t compare Pro and X specs against next-gen because these were built with selling only a small amount in mind.

If that exact same hardware was used in PS5 at the same time the Pro came out it would be far cheaper due to supply and demand.

Now we’ve currently got a 13TF Vega card coming out this month so consoles having something similar or better in 10 months or longer isn’t just possible, but it’s almost guaranteed.
 
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Oct 26, 2018
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#82
If people use the Xbox and PS4 OG specs as a benchmark:

PS4 1.8tf
XBox One 1.3tf

It's not that unreasonable to assume they might hit 10tf. If you look at historical console specs..... ram and power (tflops) increase crazy amounts like 8x minimum per generation. There were times ram increased 16x (PS2 32mb to PS3 512mb). Specs are different now in that different architecture seems to give boosts instead of raw chip amounts...... you won't be seeing console's 8-16x the ram.

But if consoles go 8x the power again, that brings into the 10.4 - 14.4 tf range. So even the low end (8x Xbox One OG), you get about 10 tf. And those systems launched in 2013.
 
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TLZ

Lord of all gifs and memes
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#83
A mid-gen refresh for 8k?

I can’t wait to spend 2 grand on that console
Don't forget the 8k TV to go with it! ;)

Fucking goddammit. I got a Pro like 3 months ago.
Well... just like you bought the Pro 2 years after its release (and possibly a PS4 5 years after release if the Pro is your first), you surely can wait til 2022 (or 2025) to buy your PS5 ;)
 
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#86
People think the specs dont sound so good because the next gen consoles may be only twice the flops of the OneX, but they should be compared to the base PS4 and XB1, where the new consoles will probably be in the 6-8x the power range.
Also the X and the Pro are just running base console games at higher resolutions or better framerates. If a game was actually made for the X only, it would probably look pretty damn stunning, and the next gen consoles will be about twice as powerful, with a much better cpu.
 

TLZ

Lord of all gifs and memes
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#88
And a bigger living room.

As resolution increases, so do TV sizes. The larger 4k TVs are in the 65-75' range. So unless the tv makers want to jam more pixels into the same screen size, the tvs might creep up to 90+'.
Might as well move into a mansion with a mancave for movies and gaming. Hey, maybe I'll open my own cinema and charge people. Not a bad idea.

Except I'm broke :D
 
Likes: JareBear
Nov 25, 2015
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#89
:messenger_grinning_sweat::messenger_tears_of_joy::messenger_tears_of_joy:
You're joking right?

If not, mind telling me how you came to this conclusion?
It just doesn’t interest me at all.
When I was big into PC gaming to save on performance I would always turn off shadows and reflections first. There is just no need for it to enjoy the game.
 
Apr 17, 2007
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#90
Thats really not absurd... XboxOneX launched in freaking 2017 with 6TF already and its costs 500 bucks. People expecting a PS5 with more than 8TF have ridiclious expectations and they forget that there is still the base PS4 which is a 1.8TF machine. So coming from that a PS5 with 8TF will be a big upgrade. The crucial upgrade nextgen will be the CPU



Please...
A 6TF console is available right now and costs 500bucks.

A LOT of people will be disappointed with the PS5 specs thats for sure, especially the folks who expect anything beyond 9-10TF

I wish people could keep other things in mind. Just because we get 7nm doesnt mean everything will be cheaper...
8TF, lol. Leaked specs has it over 10 TF already. And you could’ve gotten that 6TF box for $399 all of last year.
 
Nov 27, 2018
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#96
Hopefully they will go for 499$, but looking at PS4, VR and Pro successes, I strongly doubt they will go a single dollar above 399$. They will again want to create as big user base as possible, especially that Sony doesn't plan to offer their games/services on other platforms like MS does, so every PS5 sold will matter more than ever. The way I see the next-gen consoles models will look like is as follows:

XB2S - 299$, 8-12GB RAM, 6-7TF GPU, FullHD
PS5 - 399$, 12-16GB RAM, 8-9TF GPU, CBR 4K
XB2X -499$, 16GB RAM, 10-12Tf GPU, 4K

All will share the same Ryzen CPU, more or less.


Nah, there won’t two machines with power differences on the Sony side and if MS try it they’ll find themselves in the Nintendo Switch camp in terms of AAA third party support.
How so? If one console will target 1080p with just weaker GPU and lesser memory I see no reason why it wouldn't be able to play games the 4K-focused console will. If Pro and X1X can play the base models games, then there's no reason next-gen games build from the ground up
 
Likes: JareBear
Nov 25, 2015
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#97
How so? If one console will target 1080p with just weaker GPU and lesser memory I see no reason why it wouldn't be able to play games the 4K-focused console will. If Pro and X1X can play the base models games, then there's no reason next-gen games build from the ground up
There’s a lot more to games than just resolution and framerate, less power means dumbing a game down in every aspect and that includes the high powered machine to ensure it runs on the low powered machine.

They won’t make two completely different games to match the specs they serve. Low power machines means sacrifices need to be made to gameplay and AI.
 
Likes: Tarkus98

Caio

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Jun 27, 2009
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#98
Hopefully they will go for 499$, but looking at PS4, VR and Pro successes, I strongly doubt they will go a single dollar above 399$. They will again want to create as big user base as possible, especially that Sony doesn't plan to offer their games/services on other platforms like MS does, so every PS5 sold will matter more than ever. The way I see the next-gen consoles models will look like is as follows:

XB2S - 299$, 8-12GB RAM, 6-7TF GPU, FullHD
PS5 - 399$, 12-16GB RAM, 8-9TF GPU, CBR 4K
XB2X -499$, 16GB RAM, 10-12Tf GPU, 4K

All will share the same Ryzen CPU, more or less.

Your PS5 specs are very delusional, and unrealistic.
With this kind of specs, you would not see any concrete difference between PS5 and XBox One X, and it would be a true disappointment ! And what about CBR 4K ?....I hope you were joking about it. PS5 must guarantee native 4K on any game.
 
Nov 27, 2018
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#99
There’s a lot more to games than just resolution and framerate, less power means dumbing a game down in every aspect and that includes the high powered machine to ensure it runs on the low powered machine.

They won’t make two completely different games to match the specs they serve. Low power machines means sacrifices need to be made to gameplay and AI.
They are already doing it on Pro and X1X, where you can choose between performance mode and resolution mode, and sometimes even something in the middle. Besides, games are being made with different graphics settings for decades, all it takes is to change the settings in the config.ini file and that's it, that's how they are already doing in on Pro and X1X, and it literally takes just a single person to do it. And that's how they will do it on several next=gen models, even me and you could do this, like on PC where you mess up with the settings and check how the game runs, until you reach the sweet spot between performance and graphics.

and it would be a true disappointment ! And what about CBR 4K ?....I hope you were joking about it. PS5 must guarantee native 4K on any gam
The market already showed multiple generations that average (console) gamer doesn't care about the resolution, or even framerate that much. when will the PC-only guys wake up and realize that? UC4, GoW, GT:S, Spiderman etc. all look phenomenal on the Pro, despite not being native 4K, and no one will ever deny it. And that's where all the X1X computing power goes, native 4K, while the games don't necessary look better than on the Pro, let alone the exclusives. So by sticking with CBR 4K the devs would have twice the processing power compared to Pro to improve the graphics, that would be a huge jump for just a mere 399$. just imagine games looking twice as good as the mentioned titles, or the upcoming games like TLoU2 or Death Stranding. I personally do care about the resolution and framerate (that's why I build a 4-5k$ PC and don't bitch about the consoles, what they "must", what they"should have"), so I'm opting for the XB2X more than PS5 in the upcoming generation, but I can clearly see Sony going for the smart way, accessible for average Joe, instead of brute force for extra cost. They already did it, it worked, flawlessly, and they will do it again, no doubt. If anything, they can always release a PS5 Pro version few years later once the technology get's cheaper and aim for the actual native 4K.
 
Aug 12, 2018
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Hopefully they will go for 499$, but looking at PS4, VR and Pro successes, I strongly doubt they will go a single dollar above 399$. They will again want to create as big user base as possible, especially that Sony doesn't plan to offer their games/services on other platforms like MS does, so every PS5 sold will matter more than ever. The way I see the next-gen consoles models will look like is as follows:

XB2S - 299$, 8-12GB RAM, 6-7TF GPU, FullHD
PS5 - 399$, 12-16GB RAM, 8-9TF GPU, CBR 4K
XB2X -499$, 16GB RAM, 10-12Tf GPU, 4K

All will share the same Ryzen CPU, more or less.




How so? If one console will target 1080p with just weaker GPU and lesser memory I see no reason why it wouldn't be able to play games the 4K-focused console will. If Pro and X1X can play the base models games, then there's no reason next-gen games build from the ground up
To be honest

Looking at current AMD VII prices ranged at $600, it's kinda unrealistic to have a $399 PS5

And for a 2020/21 system to have just around 8-9 TF is really underwhelming specs compared to Xbox One X who came out in 2016