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PS5 shipments may reach at least 120 million units in next 5 years - DigiTimes

3liteDragon

Member
Sony's new-generation PS5 game console shipments are estimated to reach at least 120 million units in the next five years after launch in fourth-quarter 2020, roughly double those for Microsoft's Xbox series X, according to sources of its backend supply chain in Taiwan.

The life cycle for household game consoles may be shortened to five years from 6-7 years, and PS5 shipments may challenge 120-170 million units when its 5-year cycle expires, compared to 110 million units registered to date for PS4 launched in November 2013, the sources said, adding that Sony has recently boosted its PS5 shipment estimate for 2020 to near 10 million units.

AMD-designed processors for the device fabricated by TSMC on its 7nm node and packaged by ASE Technology and Siliconeware Precision Industries (SPIL) with its FCBGA process are already being delivered to Sony, and shipments of peripheral chipsets are expected to peak later in the third quarter to support first wave of terminal sales in the fourth quarter, the sources continued.

Taiwan's chipmaker ZillTek Technology and China's AAC Technologies now share Sony's orders for handle controller chips for PS5, and another two Taiwanese IC designers Nuvoton Technology and Genesys Logic are supplying MCUs and USB hub controllers, respectively, for the device, with Greatek Electronics as their backend partner. Meanwhile, Phison Electronics reportedly has also cut into PS5 supply chain with its SSD controller chips packaged by Taiwan's OSE, the sources added.
 

keraj37

Banned
If the price will fit in the $600+(+inflation) stimulus check then yes, otherwise I doubt it.
 
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NoviDon

Member
We were told last generation that this gen would be shorter, so I doubt 5 years cycle is going to be realized. Even though I think for consumers like me that's the sweet spot, 7 years is more ideal for developers to bring in as much revenue as possible before a jump in development language and tech.
 

ZZZZ

Member
I saw this, but i thought it was too dumb to post it.
24M units+ per year is so fucking stupid of someone to write honestly.

The biggest markets in the world are dealing with Covid as well and records in unemployment.
 

GHG

Member
24M units/year when the PS4 in its best years didn’t do that and the Xbox will likely be more competitive?
Nah.

I saw this, but i thought it was too dumb to post it.
24M units+ per year is so fucking stupid of someone to write honestly.

The biggest markets in the world are dealing with Covid as well and records in unemployment.

This is about hardware shipments, not sales.

The info is coming from supply chain suppliers. These numbers are likely "best case scenario" hardware yield numbers.

Whether or not Sony will actually put orders in for that volume of hardware to be produced and manufactured over the next 5 years is a different story.

People need to read the article.
 

ZZZZ

Member
This is about hardware shipments, not sales.

The info is coming from supply chain suppliers. These numbers are likely "best case scenario" hardware yield numbers.

Whether or not Sony will actually put orders in for that volume of hardware to be produced and manufactured over the next 5 years is a different story.

People need to read the article.
"The life cycle for household game consoles may be shortened to five years from 6-7 years, and PS5 shipments may challenge 120-170 million units when its 5-year cycle expires, compared to 110 million units registered to date for PS4 launched in November 2013, the sources said, adding that Sony has recently boosted its PS5 shipment estimate for 2020 to near 10 million units. "

I read the article and i think these numbers are stupid.
170 Million units shipped in 5 years?
 

GHG

Member
"The life cycle for household game consoles may be shortened to five years from 6-7 years, and PS5 shipments may challenge 120-170 million units when its 5-year cycle expires, compared to 110 million units registered to date for PS4 launched in November 2013, the sources said, adding that Sony has recently boosted its PS5 shipment estimate for 2020 to near 10 million units. "

I read the article and i think these numbers are stupid.
170 Million units shipped in 5 years?

It's ok, you lack understanding.

This news is coming from back-end supply chain partners. They are only concerned about how much can possibly be made during a certain period of time.
 
This is about hardware shipments, not sales.

The info is coming from supply chain suppliers. These numbers are likely "best case scenario" hardware yield numbers.

Whether or not Sony will actually put orders in for that volume of hardware to be produced and manufactured over the next 5 years is a different story.

People need to read the article.
Since when do they produce such a high volume relative to sales expectations though? Like if they predict 100M sales by 2026, will they really produce 20M units extras? I’d assume shipments wouldn’t be dramatically behind projected sales.
 

GHG

Member
Since when do they produce such a high volume relative to sales expectations though? Like if they predict 100M sales by 2026, will they really produce 20M units extras? I’d assume shipments wouldn’t be dramatically behind projected sales.

That's the point, they won't, hence this article is about shipment estimations from those involved in the supply chain rather than sales projections coming from Sony.

No sensible hardware company would put in orders this far in advance. Unless this is Sony being extremely bold and ordering this amount of volume this far in advance in order to reduce costs with manufacturing and logistics partners, but that's implausible.
 

ZZZZ

Member
It's ok, you lack understanding.

This news is coming from back-end supply chain partners. They are only concerned about how much can possibly be made during a certain period of time.
I understand your point, they are shipment estimations from the supply chain.
My point is that these estimations are silly, no way the ps5 is selling that much in 5 years, so why even bother with a 170M units 5 year production, Sony is not going to ask for those numbers.
 
That's the point, they won't, hence this article is about shipment estimations from those involved in the supply chain rather than sales projections coming from Sony.

No sensible hardware company would put in orders this far in advance. Unless this is Sony being extremely bold and ordering this amount of volume this far in advance in order to reduce costs with manufacturing and logistics partners, but that's implausible.
I get that but then what’s the point of those insane numbers when they won’t happen one way or the other? That’s what I don’t get.
 

GHG

Member
I understand your point, they are shipment estimations from the supply chain.
My point is that these estimations are silly, no way the ps5 is selling that much in 5 years, so why even bother with a 170M units 5 year production, Sony is not going to ask for those numbers.

I get that but then what’s the point of those insane numbers when they won’t happen one way or the other? That’s what I don’t get.

Couple of reasons:

  • It basically says to Sony "we can do this if you need us to"
  • Other companies will also be using them as supply chain partners (and there will be other companies in negotiation with them) - it's bragging about their capacity/capability.
What's actually interesting here is that it looks like Sony have only entered into an initial 5 year contract with their supply chain partners for the PS5 based on what's being said in the article.
 

ZZZZ

Member
Couple of reasons:

  • It basically says to Sony "we can do this if you need us to"
  • Other companies will also be using them as supply chain partners (and there will be other companies in negotiation with them) - it's bragging about their capacity/capability.
What's actually interesting here is that it looks like Sony have only entered into an initial 5 year contract with their supply chain partners for the PS5 based on what's being said in the article.
So this is a bragging article?
I really lack understanding then.
Ty for clarifying.
 
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JOEVIAL

Has a voluptuous plastic labia
Unless this thing is $299, there's no way it sells more than PS4.

I also predict it will sell less than PS4. Console sales are waining, unemployment in the top markets are pretty much the highest they have ever been and that will be ongoing for years to come.

Maybe a respectable 80million at the end of it's life.


Besides... the article pretty much says the manufactures and supply chains can "potentially" make that many PS5's if need be. Yeah... they won't need to make that many.
 
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A 5-year generation will only allow 1st party developers to develop 1 game for the system before having to learn to develop for a new system all over again. In the case of CD Projekt Red, they would be skipping generations since their develop time frame for a AAA game is over 8 years each. I don't believe that the PS5 will only be for 5 years. Maybe they meant a PS5 Pro/PS6 (based on the same architecture) will be out in 5 years?
 

ZZZZ

Member
A 5-year generation will only allow 1st party developers to develop 1 game for the system before having to learn to develop for a new system all over again. In the case of CD Projekt Red, they would be skipping generations since their develop time frame for a AAA game is over 8 years each. I don't believe that the PS5 will only be for 5 years. Maybe they meant a PS5 Pro/PS6 (based on the same architecture) will be out in 5 years?
8 years? what? they started going hard on Cyberpunk after they were done with Blood and Wine.
They didn't had a team big enough to focus on 2 Massive projects before the Witcher 3 Success.
 
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GHG

Member
So this is a bragging article?
I really lack understanding then.
Ty for clarifying.

TSMC (the chip manufacturer) are notorious for doing this kind of thing (leaking information like this to the press). They are leaky at the best of times but they become even more so when they are in negotiations with somebody and want to apply pressure.

Amazing they can predict that when we don't even know what the price is. Will this still happen at $599?

A larger number of orders means more wiggle room for manufacturing costs. I'd guess that's the main reason for Sony doubling the number of orders for PS5's this year, the price might have been too high for them if not.
 

hemo memo

Member
Predicting that without even the price? If that “article” was a thread on GAF then mods would have probably locked it it because of how stupid it is.
 

TLZ

Gold Member
Just give us the prices of both consoles already. It's August soon and we know nothing. Cmon.
 
24M units/year when the PS4 in its best years didn’t do that and the Xbox will likely be more competitive?
Nah.
This time Sony will be more aggressive with everything.You have to remember that they came from the disastrous PS3 which led Sony losing lots of money.They were in a horrible condition had to sell buildings and so on.With PS4 they wanted to be as safe as possible make money as safe as possible.This time they come with 2 versions one digital,they probably will sell it very cheap 299-399 Disc Version 399-499.The digital Version even if it cost them money initially they will earn amazing money from it .So they have a clear strategy here.And they won’t wait with reducing the prices like with the PS4.A PS4 after 7 years is still expensive normally it should cost 149-199 1-2 years ago.This time they will start cheap eating a bit of the costs at the start and will lower prices fast.We will be seeing a 249 ps5 digital very fast in 2-3 years.That should be their strategy because the more people buy the digital version the More Money they will earn especially in the long run.
 

jakinov

Member
If they expand to more countries worldwide and are affordable in those regions then sure. Otherwise, I think the number will be a bit lower, at least in 5 years.

PC gaming has exploded in the last several years. Don't get me wrong I think consoles will still be super duper popular and probably still grow because the market probably will overlal. But there are just a lot of trends that may push people to just own gaming capable PC. Things like PC-centric GaaS games being some of the most played games ever, other pc exclusives, the increase in dev support, the impact of indie gaming (and their prioritization of PC), gaming influencers (i.e. streamers/youtubers) being basically heavy PC gamers. This is anecdotal but I just notice that the younger generation embraces PC gaming magnitudes more than people did when I was high school not too long ago. There will be people that game on both, but because these GaaS games are suite huge time sinks people might be less inclined to dish out hundreds of dollars to play some story-heavy exclusive games on a game console.

I can't predict the future. But I just don't see an evidence that console gaming is going to grow that fast without expanding the reach. If anything with the higher prices of the consoles, it would slow down.
 

Hairsplash

Member
This time Sony will be more aggressive with everything.You have to remember that they came from the disastrous PS3 which led Sony losing lots of money.They were in a horrible condition had to sell buildings and so on.With PS4 they wanted to be as safe as possible make money as safe as possible.This time they come with 2 versions one digital,they probably will sell it very cheap 299-399 Disc Version 399-499.The digital Version even if it cost them money initially they will earn amazing money from it .So they have a clear strategy here.And they won’t wait with reducing the prices like with the PS4.A PS4 after 7 years is still expensive normally it should cost 149-199 1-2 years ago.This time they will start cheap eating a bit of the costs at the start and will lower prices fast.We will be seeing a 249 ps5 digital very fast in 2-3 years.That should be their strategy because the more people buy the digital version the More Money they will earn especially in the long run.

NOT going to happen... the ps5 will not be cheaper than the original price ps4pro... the ps5 has to be 20 dollars more expensive due the extra 8Gb ram added... is at least 420 us... the gpu is the only thing different in the ps4pro (the ps4pro was priced at the original price of the ps4. so the changes to the ps4pro cost the difference between the ps4 and the ps4pro. The ps5 disc drive will be a UHD bluray drive... so the cost of the ps5 disc version will be the additional cost the ps4pro added to the ps4, plus at least 20 dollars (RAM, and the added cost if the UHD drive minimum... and additional for the CPU, GPU...

so I predict that the digital ps5 will be 450, and the ps5 disc will be 500 (as will the series X Xbox... Microsoft does not sell the newest console for less than 500 us dollars... xbox 1 500 dollars (with Kinect) , xbox 1 x 500 dollars... Xbox series x 500 dollars... same as Sony) IMO
 

Knightime_X

Member
As generations of players grow older there will be more and more gamers buying consoles.
Back in the 90's there was nowhere near as many gamers in thier 40s to 50 as there is today.

I won't be surprised when console sales hit 500+ million.
 

MrS

Banned
It will do 100m lifetime easily but 120m in 5 years is unrealistic. Unless it’s really cheap, which I don’t see it being, I just don’t see them being able to reach that figure.
 

Klayzer

Member
Market is shrinking and they seem to get a bit better competition on xbox also.

Doubt.
Disagree. The numbers show the market is not shrinking, less people bought into Xbox than last gen. People were saying that when the WIIU dragged the numbers down also. There will be close to 275 million gamers that bought into this gen when the final numbers are in (in my opinion).

PS4- 110+
XB1 - 60 (uneducated guess)
NS - 100+ (it's on track for it)

Doesn't seem like a shrinking market to me. In fact there's room for even more growth. That's just consoles, the PC market is also exploding. The Gaming industry is raking in the cash.
 

PlayVerso

Member
Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh..............................................................................................NO.
 

iorek21

Member
5 year cycle in a timeline that devs like Rockstar, Bethesda can’t even release 2 titles in 7 years? Yeah right....
 

Celcius

°Temp. member
I just hope I'll be able to get my hands on one this year. There seems to be a shortage of not only Nintendo Switches but all consoles once everyone started staying home due to covid. They'll probably sell as many as they can make.
 

Bryank75

Banned
I think they will do 140 to 150 million next gen.....

If they are super aggressive they could get 170+ million but that is 300 - 350 dollars for digital PS5 and a large acquisition that takes big generational games away from all other platforms.... maybe making R* games exclusive or buying Bethesda so Starfield and Elderscrolls are exclusive.
 

Grinchy

Banned
My brain read this as PS4 and I was like no shit, it's already over 110M so it's easy for them to sell another 10M and it won't take 5 years. But PS5? Can they even manufacture that many? Does enough plastic exist in the world for 240M of those popped collars?
 

Amiga

Member
Maybe they expect another exodus from Xbox to Playstation?

There must be a reason why production doubled right before the Xbox Game Showcase.
Even public Xbox fans have a PS4 at this point, very few mainstream gamers don't have a PS4.
 
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