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PS5 shipments may reach at least 120 million units in next 5 years - DigiTimes

Texas Pride

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For these projections to be even close to realistic you have to be talking prices under $399. That's hard to see. Digital PS5 for $350 would be absurd.
 
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Bryank75

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No, I seriously doubt this. Unless it starts cheap with a gamepass equivalent and full BC with PS1234.

So, in other words, impossible.
Why would they need Game Pass?

What if they got a Digital PS5 out for 300 to 350 dollars and made online free?
They don't need to add more subs, they need to get rid of them and move back to what gaming was like when it was pure!
 
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farmerboy

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Why would they need Game Pass?

What if they got a Digital PS5 out for 300 to 350 dollars and made online free?
They don't need to add more subs, they need to get rid of them and move back to what gaming was like when it was pure!

I think you'll find that PS will have some sort of gamepass. As much as I hate it.

Hopefully they back themselves in on the strength of their first party instead of going that way.
 
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yurinka

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I think PS5 will sell way more than 120M (and than 140M, like PS2 and PS4), but also think that it will need more than 5 years.

Market is shrinking and they seem to get a bit better competition on xbox also.

Doubt.
You're wrong.

Gaming market, console market and PS console hardware, PS games and PS services have been growing from many years ago. And looking at social media and videos numbers PS5 is getting historical records, and their advantage over MS is bigger than ever was. Xbox seems that will be less important competition than in the current gen. In all the battles between MS and PS, the only one where MS may have a chance is streaming, and I'm not sure about it.

They might offer PSNow and the free games as one package under PS+.

Then have free online.... just a hypothesis.
Sony can merge PS+ and PSNow into a single service, something that seems it's what MS wants to do in the long term merging Gold, Game Pass and xCloud.

Neither Sony or MS would give away free online, I don't see it. They want you to pay a subscription for it. Sony is getting a ton of money from it -way more than MS- so they won't give it away.
 
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megreotsugua

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Perhaps Sony is looking for a bigger push into untapped gaming markets like China and India

I really think Sony is poised to do a big marketing push in China for the PS5. They have been striking Chinese partnership deals in preparation for it.
 
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megreotsugua

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Why would they need Game Pass?

What if they got a Digital PS5 out for 300 to 350 dollars and made online free?
They don't need to add more subs, they need to get rid of them and move back to what gaming was like when it was pure!

I don't think getting rid of subs would happen. That would be throwing billions of revenue.

I would love it to but I don't see it happening.
 
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Kenpachii

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I think PS5 will sell way more than 120M (and than 140M, like PS2 and PS4), but also think that it will need more than 5 years.


You're wrong.

Gaming market, console market and PS console hardware, PS games and PS services have been growing from many years ago. And looking at social media and videos numbers PS5 is getting historical records, and their advantage over MS is bigger than ever was. Xbox seems that will be less important competition than in the current gen. In all the battles between MS and PS, the only one where MS may have a chance is streaming, and I'm not sure about it.


Sony can merge PS+ and PSNow into a single service, something that seems it's what MS wants to do in the long term merging Gold, Game Pass and xCloud.

Neither Sony or MS would give away free online, I don't see it. They want you to pay a subscription for it. Sony is getting a ton of money from it -way more than MS- so they won't give it away.

PS4 has 110 million sales
Switch has 55m
xbox was something like 50m?
Total 215 million sales.

Last generation
PS3 90m
Xbox 360 90m
3DS + Wii-U = 90m ( this was a massive failure by the way )
total 270m sales.

PS2 = 150m
Wii + DS = 250m
xbox 24m
Total 424m sales. ( not including the psp )

Seems to me it shrinks, and even if the numbers would be a bit higher its still a far cry with the player base expanding like hell, through the years.

I am not shocked they all move into different markets ( like PC ), and go into subscriptions fee's and try to dig out more money from there current player base with all kinds of ways to get you to spend. This probably will continue next generation. because that's what mostly happens when new players are not to be found.

And frankly with kids playing fornite 350m on there mobile probably, not owning handhelds anymore and paywalls everywhere like online play on consoles. It will not help new players to join. Specially when those boxes PS5 and SX will cost 500 bucks that many here hope lol.

Consoles are your typical mmo, first everything is great as new players all joining in fast amounts ( PS2 ). Then new players aren't coming in anymore ( PS3). Paywall are producted to dig money out of there current player base ( PS4 ) which drains all the remaining new players. and down it goes.

It always makes me laugh when people shit on lockheart or any other cheaper alternative box. In my view both xbox and ps5 are way over engineered / priced to the point it will alienate ( price / pawalls ) new consumers and make it even for there current consumers expensive through not having enough space to store game data on ( rip digital and hello installation times). ( and then people want EU5 textures in a PS5 game, yea good luck storing that )

People have unrealistic expectations and frankly multiplatform efforts will increase and increase until the point both xbox and playstation are nothing but services. Xbox is already moving there.
 
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Investor9872

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The hype is real, ya'll. All of these "The PS5 will hit 150 million, 200 million units" comments are delusional. The PS2, as you all have alluded to, brought dvd players to the masses, and that was why it sold so well. There's no way a $450 -$500 PS5 is going to hit Playstation 2 numbers. It will be lucky to hit 100 million. All of the 1st party games Sony has shown so far for the PS5 look great, but they are not a revolutionary leap from the PS4 Pro, and it's even worst for MS with their XSX showing. Dedicated, hardcore gamers like us here on Neogaf will buy both machines when they launch, but not the mass, casual gamers who will be more than happy to keep their current gens for a few more years.
 
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Let’s just guess PS5 will be at 400$

At that point do you think will Microsoft just push the button and dismantle Xbox? They just want to sell GamePass
 

Investor9872

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120 million units in 5 years has a 1 in a million shot IMO. No way the price drops rapidly enough IMO.

You're being generous. I say there's no chance in hell that will happen!

Let’s just guess PS5 will be at 400$
At that point do you think will Microsoft just push the button and dismantle Xbox? They just want to sell GamePass

I have always maintained that the PS5 disk version will probably be around $450 at launch with that SSD and 4K player. But after the latest poor showing at the XBox 1st party event, I think Sony sees that they now have the momentum. And with the next-gen launch just mere months away, I can see Sony launching at $500 or more for the physical PS5.
 

NickFire

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You're being generous. I say there's no chance in hell that will happen!



I have always maintained that the PS5 disk version will probably be around $450 at launch with that SSD and 4K player. But after the latest poor showing at the XBox 1st party event, I think Sony sees that they now have the momentum. And with the next-gen launch just mere months away, I can see Sony launching at $500 or more for the physical PS5.
I think Sony would be really dumb to price based on reaction to anything Xbox. Lowest price they can swing is what they need to do, full stop. They are in a great position going into next generation. But the last time they followed up a great run with a high price, they were only saved by the RRoD in my opinion. A high price for PS5 would be MS best marketing going after last week.
 

yurinka

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PS4 has 110 million sales
Switch has 55m
xbox was something like 50m?
Total 215 million sales.

Last generation
PS3 90m
Xbox 360 90m
3DS + Wii-U = 90m ( this was a massive failure by the way )
total 270m sales.

PS2 = 150m
Wii + DS = 250m
xbox 24m
Total 424m sales. ( not including the psp )

Seems to me it shrinks, and even if the numbers would be a bit higher its still a far cry with the player base expanding like hell, through the years.

I am not shocked they all move into different markets ( like PC ), and go into subscriptions fee's and try to dig out more money from there current player base with all kinds of ways to get you to spend. This probably will continue next generation. because that's what mostly happens when new players are not to be found.

And frankly with kids playing fornite 350m on there mobile probably, not owning handhelds anymore and paywalls everywhere like online play on consoles. It will not help new players to join. Specially when those boxes PS5 and SX will cost 500 bucks that many here hope lol.

Consoles are your typical mmo, first everything is great as new players all joining in fast amounts ( PS2 ). Then new players aren't coming in anymore ( PS3). Paywall are producted to dig money out of there current player base ( PS4 ) which drains all the remaining new players. and down it goes.

It always makes me laugh when people shit on lockheart or any other cheaper alternative box. In my view both xbox and ps5 are way over engineered / priced to the point it will alienate ( price / pawalls ) new consumers and make it even for there current consumers expensive through not having enough space to store game data on ( rip digital and hello installation times). ( and then people want EU5 textures in a PS5 game, yea good luck storing that )

People have unrealistic expectations and frankly multiplatform efforts will increase and increase until the point both xbox and playstation are nothing but services. Xbox is already moving there.
As an be seen in yearly reports from Newzoo, Nielsen, Superdata, ESA, etc, the combined revenue of console gaming market has been growing year after year since more than a decade or two ago, as happened with the entire gaming market, where console is not even the half of that market. The majority of the market in amount of users or revenue is mobiles + tablets (which also has a bigger growth than console market). The majority of the market on user count and revenue is F2P (which also has a bigger growth than paid games or subs. services). The majority of the market is Asia (which also has a bigger growth than the west).

You are comparing a generation that is far from its end to two already completed generations, the two best selling ones in gaming history. And you are only comparing console sales, when the revenue comes mostly from games (and now services). The shrinking that you mention is a big portion of the handheld casual market that moved from portables to mobile and tablets. In any case, Switch will end selling more than WiiU+3DS+Vita at the end of its lifetime. And if we look at revenue from consoles+games+accesories (remember, PSVR)+gaming services, consoles market is generating more revenue than ever.

PS4 still has some dozens of million units to sell (they continue selling games and consoles for over 10 years after launch, don't stop when the next one is released), and Switch is not even in the half of its lifetime. In case of PS4 and XBO, being BC they will be cheaper SKU and will continue getting crossgen games for longer than in previous generations, which means they will continue selling, and there's extra revenue sources like games or services. Aligning launches both PS4 and Switch, both console sales numbers are on track repeating until now the PS2 numbers, which ended selling 150M+. The last XBO sales number estimation I remember was 55M several months ago.

You're being generous. I say there's no chance in hell that will happen!
PS4 is setting new records in some cases and in other ones is performing like PS2 on that same lifetime point.

PS5 will start in a better brand position than PS4 started, and the PS5 video and social numbers KPIs point to a record demand than ever before.

So seems that PS5 will perform better than PS4, and that like PS4 will end selling way more than 120M at the end of its lifetime.

But I doubt that it will be to the point that PS5 may achieve 120M in 5 years. I think it will reach 120M in 6 or 7 years.
 
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Dabaus

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399 plus MS crapping the bed, rolling in it, making snow angels out of it, and then porting former exclusives to sony platforms is how you get to 120 million in 5 years. So basically just need that 399 price announcement, Ms is taking care of the rest.
 
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Investor9872

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PS4 is setting new records in some cases and in other ones is performing like PS2 on that same lifetime point.

PS5 will start in a better brand position than PS4 started, and the PS5 video and social numbers KPIs point to a record demand than ever before.

So seems that PS5 will perform better than PS4, and that like PS4 will end selling way more than 120M at the end of its lifetime.

But I doubt that it will be to the point that PS5 may achieve 120M in 5 years. I think it will reach 120M in 6 or 7 years.

I still don't think the PS5 will sell 120m in 7 years. Maybe in 10 years depending on the 1st party support, but they will have to put out 3-4 games each studio in that time frame to do it. I think a lot of people are underestimating the numbers of PS4 gamers willing to hold on to their systems for 1-2 years before making the jump when the true PS5 exclusives will be out.
 
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yurinka

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I still don't think the PS5 will sell 120m in 7 years. Maybe in 10 years depending on the 1st party support, but they will have to put out 3-4 games each studio in that time frame to do. I think a lot of people are underestimating the numbers of PS4 gamers willing to hold on to their systems for 1-2 years before making the jump when true PS5 exclusives will be out by then.
I'll be one of them. But they had some PS5 launch expectactions pretty similar to PS4 that they had to increase even before showing the console. And we're in the middle of a giant pandemic.
 

Elektro Demon

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Projection does not equal reality. Core gamers are getting older and they are the ones buying consoles.
These new modern kids don't even care for console games, most of them just play cancer like Fortnite and Pubg on PC.