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PS5 sold 118,085 units in first four days in Japan; Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S sold 20,534 units in first six days. I'm shocked!

Bodomism

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They sold out all the units of PS5 and Xbox they had for Japan. They didn't sell more due to lack of enough supply because they were releasing this time in more countries, so even if Sony and MS shipped more units in a worldwide scale than they ever did, there were less units available per country -most likely almost everywhere- than before.

Sony expects to outsell with PS5 this fiscal year that ends in March in a worldwide scale the amount of units they sold with PS4 in the same period. Which means PS5 is going to have the best launch ever for a console in gaming history.

And looking at the amount of big exclusives announced in PS5 and Series X|S for 2021, and comparing them to the exclusives PS4 and XBO had its first year, I think that at the end of 2021 PS5 will continue outselling PS4 launch aligned worldwide, and the difference with Xbox I think will be bigger than was back then. Specially if multiplatform games continue performing frequently very similarly or with a lead on PS5 in terms of performance and loading.

Regarding Japan, it's a small market for both MS and Sony, whose main markets are NA and EU.


Outside the covid bump of Q1 & Q2, PS4 was outselling Switch launch aligned due to having an extra Q3, so they have pretty similar sales. But there's a difference regarding their sales curve: PS home consoles are in the market during ~10-12 years, while Wii and the portables are during ~8 years and Nintendo home consoles outside Wii last ~6 years.

This means PS4 will pretty likely outsell Switch in the long run once all is set in stone after their full lifecycle. And PS4 is outselling PS2 launch aligned.

And PS5 seems will outsell PS4 launch aligned during at least the first year.

Nintendo Switch leads 5 million against PS4 launch aligned in 15 quarters

PS4 in 16 quarters = 67.5(+4.2M)
NSW in 16 quarters = ??

October numbers
US - 736K
JP - 360K
EU - 650K
TROW - ??
Total of October numbers should be around 2 million units.

We are going to see a record breaking number in Q3 for Nintendo Switch and my prediction is around 13M(+2.8M YoY)

That numbers put Nintendo Switch around 81 million units in 16 quarters.

16 quarters launch aligned
NSW - 81 million units(My estimation)
PS - 67.5 million units

Nintendo Switch is insanely beast in the US and Japan that makes PS4 dominance in EU insignificant in launch aligned comparison.


Last year LTD graph
US


Japan


Nintendo Switch is projected to sell around 9.5 million units in the US this year and around 6 million units in Japan.

Nintendo Switch will become the fastest selling hardware in 16th quarter launch aligned second only to NDS.

Based on the current momentum in the US, Nintendo Switch will surpasses PS4 ltd in the US in December 2021.

The most craziest thing about Nintendo Switch is the console hasn't yet received a single official price drop.
 
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Sub Boss

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GamePass will make the Xbox brand more popular in Japan, by HOW much im not sure, but i bet its going to sell much more than previous gens (wich admitedly isn't a high bar to beat)
 

MagnesG

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Outside the covid bump of Q1 & Q2, PS4 was outselling Switch launch aligned due to having an extra Q3, so they have pretty similar sales. But there's a difference regarding their sales curve: PS home consoles are in the market during ~10-12 years, while Wii and the portables are during ~8 years and Nintendo home consoles outside Wii last ~6 years.

This means PS4 will pretty likely outsell Switch in the long run once all is set in stone after their full lifecycle. And PS4 is outselling PS2 launch aligned.

And PS5 seems will outsell PS4 launch aligned during at least the first year.
You seem optimistic when Switch is gonna flew past the PS4 hard come this quarter.

Btw have you seen Furukawa statements regarding Switch's longetivity, especially when the Switch is a hybrid with a Lite model accompanied?
 
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Bodomism

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You seem optimistic when Switch is gonna flew past the PS4 hard come this quarter.

Btw have you seen Furukawa statements regarding Switch's longetivity, especially when the Switch is a hybrid with a Lite model accompanied?
He forgot to look at PS4 recent shipments where PS4 is in sharp drop in comparison to PS2 and has much lower peak than Nintendo DS and Wii.
Now with PS5 that's currently using PS4 production channel, says goodbye to PS4 leg.

39K in the US and just 10K in Japan for a whole month.

Switch is 100% going to outsell PS4.

Nintendo is still in comfortable position as the MSRP of Nintendo Switch hardware and First party games are sustaining at a full price since 2017.

Nintendo has so many cards to play in the upcoming years of Nintendo Switch life.

1. Price drop
2. New models
3. Aggressive holiday bundles
4. Software price cut
5. Steady stream of New 10-20 sellers like BOTW2, Next 3D Mario, Gen 9 Pokemon and Remake, and etc.
 
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cryptoadam

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Not good look for next gen. Barely out sold the Switch, and half than what the PS4 did. Switch will dominate the next weeks until the end of year at this rate. I forsure see a switch pro in Q2 2021.
 

Kagey K

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The pressure is on Microsoft to sell consoles outside of the States.
Why?

Its in their best interest to grow market share in the countries they are strong in.

The cost of getting and maintaining a user is much less in already established markets.

The cost of acquisition gets much higher when trying to grow new and emerging markets.

I don’t think they are trying to win a global sold numbers war. They are trying to maintain profitability and grow Mindshare at the same time.
 

yurinka

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I'll give you that, you guys are creative.
Before the Q1+Q2, PS4 was outselling Switch launch aligned mostly because its extra Q3 it had at launch. Outside that Q3, PS4 and Switch sold the same.

Before this Q1+Q2, Nintendo scheduled to sell 19M, exactly the same that PS4 sold during that same launch aligned FY. Basically all the gaming/web/tv streaming/internet companies, not only Nintendo, experienced a bump during Q1+Q2. That bump put Switch ~5M above PS5 launch aligned, so Nintendo increased their sales estimation for the current year in 5M.

Nobody, including Nintendo, expected this bump. Increasing their estimation for the FY in only 5M means Nintendo doesn't expect this bump to continue during Q3 and Q4, and to sell during them the same that PS4 sold when launch aligned, what Nintendo had expected to sell this FY before the covid bump.

Another possibility is that Nintendo expects to have more demand than the one they expected before during Q3+Q4, but they can't increase their production in more than the 5M the increased in their estimation for the FY.

Based on the current momentum in the US, Nintendo Switch will surpasses PS4 ltd in the US in December 2021.
No, it won't happen. The graphs you post are incomplete, they don't show the whole lifetime of the consoles. All of them make a curve where they basically keep growing during the first years until they reach a peak year, and start decreasing from this peak year until their sunset.

Everybody including Nintendo expected that Switch's peak year was going to be the previous fiscal year, but due to the unexpected covid bump they increased their prevision so now its peak will be the current fiscal year so it will start decreasing from here as PS4 or all consoles did.

PS4 is repeating almost exactly the same sales curve than PS2. PS4 is on its 8th FY and Sony said they will support it with crossgen games for 3 years more, so it will reach its 11 or 12th year as PS2 did. Looking at previous Nintendo consoles and handhelds, they never lasted that long: portables and Wii lasted around 8FYs (their other home consoles lasted around 6FYs), and this is what I expect it to last, maybe 1 year more (maximum 2).

As 3rd parties move to next gen in the next couple of years it will be more difficult to release these new games on Switch too. PS4 instead only needs a couple of years of crossgen games. It has room for several price cuts as no other console ever had at this point of its current lifetime and outside game sales has many extra revenue sources like PS+, PS Now, Netflix and so on.

 
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Bodomism

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Before the Q1+Q2, PS4 was outselling Switch launch aligned mostly because its extra Q3 it had at launch. Outside that Q3, PS4 and Switch sold the same.

Before this Q1+Q2, Nintendo scheduled to sell 19M, exactly the same that PS4 sold during that same launch aligned FY. Basically all the gaming/web/tv streaming/internet companies, not only Nintendo, experienced a bump during Q1+Q2. That bump put Switch ~5M above PS5 launch aligned, so Nintendo increased their sales estimation for the current year in 5M.

Nobody, including Nintendo, expected this bump. Increasing their estimation for the FY in only 5M means Nintendo doesn't expect this bump to continue during Q3 and Q4, and to sell during them the same that PS4 sold when launch aligned, what Nintendo had expected to sell this FY before the covid bump.

Another possibility is that Nintendo expects to have more demand than the one they expected before during Q3+Q4, but they can't increase their production in more than the 5M the increased in their estimation for the FY.


No, it won't happen. The graphs you post are incomplete, they don't show the whole lifetime of the consoles. All of them make a curve where they basically keep growing during the first years until they reach a peak year, and start decreasing from this peak year until their sunset.

Everybody including Nintendo expected that Switch's peak year was going to be the previous fiscal year, but due to the unexpected covid bump they increased their prevision so now its peak will be the current fiscal year so it will start decreasing from here as PS4 or all consoles did.

PS4 is repeating almost exactly the same sales curve than PS2. PS4 is on its 8th FY and Sony said they will support it with crossgen games for 3 years more, so it will reach its 11 or 12th year as PS2 did. Looking at previous Nintendo consoles and handhelds, they never lasted that long: portables and Wii lasted around 8FYs (their other home consoles lasted around 6FYs), and this is what I expect it to last, maybe 1 year more (maximum 2).

The graph I posted above shows the annual sales of the year since 3DS year. You just needed to add those annual sales to get the LTD of those consoles.

Here the LTD graph at the end of 2019


Here is the current YTD, LTD, and weekly average numbers for those hardware. Take a look how fast Nintendo Switch is catching up to PS4.


YTD
NSW: 5560K (+83%)
PS4: 1890K (-4%)
XB1: 1282K (-5%)

LTD
PS4: ~34.12M
XB1: ~28.79M
NSW: ~22.57M

With 2 more holiday months(November and December) that Nintendo managed to sell around 4 million units of Switch last year, the gap is shrinking at insane level.

Gap between PS4 and NSW at the end of 2019 = 15,050 million units

Gap between PS4 and NSW at the end Oct 2020 = 11,550 million units.

I don't see how your analysis make any sense for Switch not to surpass PS4 ltd in the US lol when the data we have is very clear that Nintendo Switch is going to sell around 45-50M in the US.
 
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yurinka

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With 2 more holiday months(November and December) that Nintendo managed to sell around 4 million units of Switch last year, the gap is shrinking at insane level.
Again, you are not considering in which point of their life cycle are: Switch has been growing and now it's on its peak year while PS4 is in its decreasing part.

Obviously during the current year Switch is going to catch up, but after this peak it will start decreasing sales year after year. Switch won't continue growing: its peak year was supposed to be last year -or at least this was Nintendo's idea- but thanks to covid it's going to be this year. But after that it will decrease.
 
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MagnesG

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Again, you are not considering in which point of their life cycle are: Switch has been growing and now it's on its peak year while PS4 is in its decreasing part.

Obviously during the current year Switch is going to catch up, but after this peak it will start decreasing sales year after year. Switch won't continue growing: its peak year was supposed to be last year -or at least this was Nintendo's idea- but thanks to covid it's going to be this year. But after that it will decrease.
Yes yes the Switch will surely start decreasing in sales, just like last year's statement.

BOTW2, MH RISE, new model, new pokemon (every 2-3 years) alone will make next year the peak.
 
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DGrayson

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The Japanese are really hot and cold on things.
They used to be massive console gamers, and Japan basically owned the gaming world with Sony, Sega, Nintendo and SNK.
Now it's a ghost house. Wouldn't be surprised if Australia was a bigger market nowadays.

But gaming isn't the only thing the Japanese have done this with.

They used to be the most rabid combat fighting country in the world. K1 was massive. Like sold out stadiums with 80,000 people.
Pride was also massive in the Japan.
Then the Japanese public just lost interest.
Good call re K1 and Pride. That shit fell off super fast.
 

prinz_valium

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Yes yes the Switch will surely start decreasing in sales, just like last year's statement.

BOTW2, MH RISE, new model, new pokemon (every 2-3 years) alone will make next year the peak.
Maybe Switch can stay flat, but it won't increase over 2020.
Just won't happen.
 
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yurinka

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Yes yes the Switch will surely start decreasing in sales, just like last year's statement.

BOTW2, MH RISE, new model, new pokemon (every 2-3 years) alone will make next year the peak.
Nintendo knows when are they going to release each game and before Covid they thought the past FY was going to be its peak year. Now the peak moved to the current one due to covid. That's all.

Rise will release on March (Nintendo already knew it when they estimated to sell 19M in the current FY). We don't know when are they going to release Zelda 2. We don't know if the new model is real or just a fan guess as the "Wii HD" was. And no, they won't release big Pokemon games every 2-3 years.
 
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MagnesG

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Maybe Switch can stay flat, but it won't increase over 2020.
Just won't happen.
Give me your reasons.

Nintendo knows when are they going to release each game and before Covid they thought the past FY was going to be its peak year. Now the peak moved to the current one due to covid. That's all.

Rise will release on March (Nintendo already knew it when they estimated to sell 19M in the current FY). We don't know when are they going to release Zelda 2. We don't know if the new model is real or just a fan guess as the "Wii HD" was. And no, they won't release big Pokemon games every 2-3 years.
Show me receipts where Nintendo itself said that past FY will be the its peak year, not even their estimates. No company would announce that publicly even for their shareholders. And all predictions points to next year being the peak.
A new MH game would always be accompanied by a new model of said platform to drive sales on both, always been that way. Doesn't matter if it is a WiiHD or anything sales would only increase for every new model.
We had Majora's Mask in junction to Ocarina of Time which only took 2 years to make for a similar engine sequel, much like BOTW2. 2021 would means 4 years for BOTW2. it's ample enough time.
Mainline Pokemon games would always be released either a remake or a new iteration of the latest one every 2-3 years, and they always drive up hardware sales.

Check your facts.

More to add regarding your last post comparing Switch with pure Nintendo home consoles:
- Switch has been having model iterations similar to its handheld predecessors, even in with similar timeline
- Switch sells like handhelds where it's normal to have multiple of system for every individual at home, not 1 console per home
- Switch is now the only Nintendo console gouging their development pipeline compared to past ones.
- Switch have 10+ evergreen titles still selling around 2-6 millions every quarter starting from their 2017 launch with $60 MSRP (BOTW sold 3.5 millions this FY3)
-
 

Bodomism

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Again, you are not considering in which point of their life cycle are: Switch has been growing and now it's on its peak year while PS4 is in its decreasing part.

Obviously during the current year Switch is going to catch up, but after this peak it will start decreasing sales year after year. Switch won't continue growing: its peak year was supposed to be last year -or at least this was Nintendo's idea- but thanks to covid it's going to be this year. But after that it will decrease.
This year is a phenomenal year for Switch and next year is going to be hard to replicate the same feat as this year but ..

Nintendo doesn't need to replicate that and just needed to replicate the year of 2019 with Price drop and BOTW 2 to stabilize the pace created by a phenomenal year of 2020.

Here are the cards that Nintendo could play in 2021 and years after

1. Price Drop - Nintendo Switch is currently not perceived as an overprice product and constantly out of stock even with bigger shipments size. The price cut for hot item like Nintendo Switch is certainly going to be a big news that could easily drive the sales the sustain at the current level.

2. Aggressive bundling - Ever wondered why everytimes MK8D bundled was available it was always sold out insanely fast despite big stock numbers, now just imagined only on Nintendo bundled(Like PlayStation 4 and Xbox One bundled) with free 3 top sellers like MK8D, ACNH, Smash, BOTW, SMO, Pokemon, and etc in just 299$? That thing will sold out instantly.



During this point of life PS4 and XBO already had a deal where you can get a console around $199-$249 +3 AAA free games while Nintendo Switch is entering the 4th holidays with the same expensive bundle and still selling more than PS4 and XBO in the holiday.

 

yurinka

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This year is a phenomenal year for Switch and next year is going to be hard to replicate the same feat as this year but ..

Nintendo doesn't need to replicate that and just needed to replicate the year of 2019 with Price drop and BOTW 2 to stabilize the pace created by a phenomenal year of 2020.

Here are the cards that Nintendo could play in 2021 and years after

1. Price Drop - Nintendo Switch is currently not perceived as an overprice product and constantly out of stock even with bigger shipments size. The price cut for hot item like Nintendo Switch is certainly going to be a big news that could easily drive the sales the sustain at the current level.

2. Aggressive bundling - Ever wondered why everytimes MK8D bundled was available it was always sold out insanely fast despite big stock numbers, now just imagined only on Nintendo bundled(Like PlayStation 4 and Xbox One bundled) with free 3 top sellers like MK8D, ACNH, Smash, BOTW, SMO, Pokemon, and etc in just 299$? That thing will sold out instantly.

During this point of life PS4 and XBO already had a deal where you can get a console around $199-$249 +3 AAA free games while Nintendo Switch is entering the 4th holidays with the same expensive bundle and still selling more than PS4 and XBO in the holiday.
PS4 is 7 years old and its successor has been released this month.
Switch was released 3 years and a half ago, it's on its peak year.
They are in a completely different position of their life cycle, so demand and pricing is obviosly different.
Bundles or Black Friday offers aren't anything new, it's something consoles always did all the time.
 
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Bodomism

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PS4 is 7 years old and its successor has been released this month.
Switch was released 3 years and a half ago, it's on its peak year.
They are in a completely different position of their life cycle, so demand and pricing is obviosly different.
Bundles or Black Friday offers aren't anything new, it's something consoles always did all the time.
I'm comparing launch aligned bundle deals where you can get PS4 at $249 + 3 free games in 2016 US and yet MK8D bundled sold more than that as Nintendo holiday sales numbers are greater than Sony.

Sony number in the US isn't that great.

Take a look at graph I posted above, all of those years PS4 didn't even cross 6 million units in yearly sales.

Nintendo Switch is a beast

I don't get your scepticism about Nintendo Switch outselling PS4 ltd when PS4 didn't even able to surpass Wii and X360 sales in the US lol while Nintendo Switch is in berserk mode.

Let me remind you the Oct number of PS4

39K for a whole month, the leg is gone.
 
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Never seen demand before like there is in PS5 in Europe. It's the biggest games market so should be getting the biggest shipments.
I see this claim a lot here, but I'm genuinely interested if this is really the case.

Maybe Europe has the most console units in absolute numbers, but what about customer lifetime value? I have a really hard time believing that Europeans spend more on games and accessories in a generation than Americans do. Americans have way more disposable income on average due to higher salaries and a lower cost of living, especially in terms of taxes.
 

yurinka

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Show me receipts where Nintendo itself said that past FY will be the its peak year, not even their estimates.
Nintendo estimated to sell 19M Switch for the current FY, which as can be seen in the graph I posted above is less than the previous year.
As also can be seen in the graph I posted, that estimation made sense because it would be to follow the same sales curve than the other consoles with a similar lifecycle sales curve.

No company would announce that publicly even for their shareholders. And all predictions points to next year being the peak.
Companies often post sales estimations for their FY. Nintendo posted their estimation for this year, and was lower than the sales they announced for the previous one that day. So de facto they were accepting it was their sales peak. Which again, compared to the other consoles made sense.

A new MH game would always be accompanied by a new model of said platform to drive sales on both, always been that way.
No. MH exists since PS2 and many games have been released in many consoles and portables without being released at launch. Specially spin-offs like MH Rise.

We had Majora's Mask in junction to Ocarina of Time which only took 2 years to make for a similar engine sequel, much like BOTW2. 2021 would means 4 years for BOTW2. it's ample enough time.
Game development today has nothing to do when Majora was released. Game budgets and development times are way longer. Majora was released by a small team, BOTW2 doesn't seem to be the case. I believe BOTW2 will be released in 2021, but time ago I also thought BOTW2, Bayonetta 3 and Metroid Prime 4 were going to be released in 2020, and now I think Metroid Prime 4 maybe will be released in 2022.

Mainline Pokemon games would always be released either a remake or a new iteration of the latest one every 2-3 years, and they always drive up hardware sales.
They released Sword and Shield in November 2019, they won't release a Pokemon in 2021.

Check your facts.
Mine are ok, check yours.

- Switch sells like handhelds where it's normal to have multiple of system for every individual at home, not 1 console per home
You can't know this because there is no data about it, this is your personal opinion.

- Switch is now the only Nintendo console gouging their development pipeline compared to past ones.
True, it was a good idea to merge them because both their consoles and portables were decliining. In this way it gets more support from both 1st and 3rd party.

- Switch have 10+ evergreen titles still selling around 2-6 millions every quarter starting from their 2017 launch with $60 MSRP (BOTW sold 3.5 millions this FY3)
Sure, they don't have to compete against many big sellers like GTAV, CoD, Cyberpunk, big Ubi games and similar as Sony or MS do. So other than some big sellers from Nintendo and a few 3rd party the other big seller games must be from previous years. And in this case, mostly 2017 which was by far their best year in terms of amount of quality games.
 

Komatsu

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The console market in Japan is now smaller than it was in 2013/14, which is why both the PS5 and the XSX moved fewer units during launch week. That said, you can't find an Xbox anywhere in Japan right now. I've literally had to ship an American XSS to one of my colleagues in Nishinomiya. Surprisingly powerful launch for Microsoft, given they were dead in the country not two years ago.
 

MagnesG

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Nintendo estimated to sell 19M Switch for the current FY, which as can be seen in the graph I posted above is less than the previous year.
As also can be seen in the graph I posted, that estimation made sense because it would be to follow the same sales curve than the other consoles with a similar lifecycle sales curve.


Companies often post sales estimations for their FY. Nintendo posted their estimation for this year, and was lower than the sales they announced for the previous one that day. So de facto they were accepting it was their sales peak. Which again, compared to the other consoles made sense.


No. MH exists since PS2 and many games have been released in many consoles and portables without being released at launch. Specially spin-offs like MH Rise.


Game development today has nothing to do when Majora was released. Game budgets and development times are way longer. Majora was released by a small team, BOTW2 doesn't seem to be the case. I believe BOTW2 will be released in 2021, but time ago I also thought BOTW2, Bayonetta 3 and Metroid Prime 4 were going to be released in 2020, and now I think Metroid Prime 4 maybe will be released in 2022.


They released Sword and Shield in November 2019, they won't release a Pokemon in 2021.


Mine are ok, check yours.


You can't know this because there is no data about it, this is your personal opinion.


True, it was a good idea to merge them because both their consoles and portables were decliining. In this way it gets more support from both 1st and 3rd party.


Sure, they don't have to compete against many big sellers like GTAV, CoD, Cyberpunk, big Ubi games and similar as Sony or MS do. So other than some big sellers from Nintendo and a few 3rd party the other big seller games must be from previous years. And in this case, mostly 2017 which was by far their best year in terms of amount of quality games.
Nintendo made estimations and they still don't announce to public if that is what they call a peak year or not (literally), then again the Switch is not the same as past consoles sale-wise and its hardware iterations and yet you still went on with the "same sales curve" narrative. Follow the handheld sales curve at least.
I followed all of Nintendo's fiscal reports, I know of them not reaching estimates once in Switch's time and lowballing hard for this FY.

"Companies often post sales estimations for their FY. Nintendo posted their estimation for this year, and was lower than the sales they announced for the previous one that day. So de facto they were accepting it was their sales peak. "
^^ Can you elaborate these more with numbers. I'm confused with your "previous one that day". Is that an estimate or sales, which sales?

I said MH had always released with a new model, an iteration not a launch model, at least after it exploded with its portable series. A new MH launch would always bring lucrative hardware numbers.
MH Freedom 2 - PSP-2000
MH Tri - Wii bundle
MH Portable 3rd - PSP-3000 SE bundle
MH3U - 3DSXL
MH4/MH4U - New3DS
MH World - PS4 Pro SE bundle


BOTW2 have a chance to release 2021 now that 2020 COVID happens. Of course that's just my prediction, though with Zelda also almost always being launched in tandem with a new console model or iteration it's not a far-fetched prediction at all.

Pokemon never stopped releasing for more than 2-3 years. As always they'll bring in numbers
Pokemon release date:


Please check your facts again.

Also I don't have cold evidences of it of course, but the fact that Switch can be deemed as a personal system is a hot take or anything. Still a strong opinion given the hybrid nature of it with the Switch lite and all. Even then people still choose to bought the original Switch more.
 
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danielJackson

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Why people are comparing Switch vs ps4?

It is handheld vs home console, different audience and they dont even compete

Compare switch to 3DS&wii combined sales If you want to brag with it

Nintendo stuff selling more than it "deserves"* is nothing new, basically the same as people buying some Supreme brand bricks or hoodies for 1000-5000€, popular but not deserved

* Low quality hardware, bad specs, too expensive, low output of quality games
 

Ritsumei2020

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Lol, the iPhone dominates that market.
Yes an American tech brand dominates in Japan. Apparently Japanese are only racist when it comes to Xbox. Everything else they behave like rational consumers. They fucking hate Xbox though. But they love Apple. Traitors.

/s
 

SupremeHoodie

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Yes an American tech brand dominates in Japan. Apparently Japanese are only racist when it comes to Xbox. Everything else they behave like rational consumers. They fucking hate Xbox though. But they love Apple. Traitors.

/s
I already said aside from the iPhone Japanese only buy Japanese tech. You then circle back to the point I made and couldn’t even refute it. lol
 

Hezekiah

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I see this claim a lot here, but I'm genuinely interested if this is really the case.

Maybe Europe has the most console units in absolute numbers, but what about customer lifetime value? I have a really hard time believing that Europeans spend more on games and accessories in a generation than Americans do. Americans have way more disposable income on average due to higher salaries and a lower cost of living, especially in terms of taxes.
I'm really not aware of American having way more disposable income than western European countries. The cost of living here is higher than some parts of the US, but I'm pretty sure there is less disparity of wealth here.

UK, Ireland Germany, France, Spain, Holland, Italy, the Scandinavian countries are all big markets for Sony. Italy and Spain for example have had economic troubles in recent years, but I don't think spending is an issue on the whole in most western European countries. Plus the population of Europe is over 700m.
 

KouNaN

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They used to be the most rabid combat fighting country in the world. K1 was massive. Like sold out stadiums with 80,000 people.
Pride was also massive in the Japan.
Then the Japanese public just lost interest.
Not gaming related, but when it comes to this, the problem came when FUJI TV droped support of PRIDE, because of Yakuza involvement in some fights. It was a big deal at the time.
 

Valued Gamer

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Not gaming related, but when it comes to this, the problem came when FUJI TV droped support of PRIDE, because of Yakuza involvement in some fights. It was a big deal at the time.
I remember the talk of the Yakuza in the day, then the UFC bought out Pride and killed it off.
But even K1 died off. K1 was the best combat show on the planet at the time.
Mark Hunt, CroCop, Hoost, Sefo, Aaerts, The Cyborg etc etc.
When Pride and K1 fell away, the fans never came back to watch any other follow up like Rizen etc. They just lost interest.
Funny country.
 

noshten

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So far in 2020 PlayStation 4 & PlayStation 5 have 11% hardware market share compared to Switch & 3DS with 88%, in case you are wondering Microsoft is at 0.42%.
In terms of Physical Software we are looking at about 80% Software being sold on the Nintendo Switch this year, with no major fall game on the PS4/PS5, this will probably end up at over 85% for the year. This will be mainly driven by Holiday sales of Ring Fit Adventure, New Horizon, Momotaro, Age of Calamity, Sword & Shield, evergreens and a bunch of other 3rd Party titles launching.

Things aren't looking much better for Sony in the 2021, as Monster Hunter Rise, Breath of the Wild 2, Bowser's Fury, Olive Town, Bravely Default 2, Rune Factory 5, BOND, Monster Hunter Stories 2 are all confirmed as exclusive to the Switch for 2021.

Most 3rd parties have already shifted their AA efforts to either making exclusives or multiplats for the Switch, so the situation compared to previous generations for Sony is pretty bleak. The PS Vita managed to sell over 28 million physical software in Japan, on a 6 million user-base - PS4 even with all the support it received in comparison has only managed around twice this. This is despite 3rd Parties throwing pretty much everything onto the system including the kitchen sink.

The small amount of Japanese AAA exclusives Sony has secured aren't enough of a competitive advantage, especially in light of recent failures like Marvel Avenger's for Square Enix. The AAA Design Philosophy is simply not sustainable for around 90% of Japanese 3rd Party publishers and studios. Momotaro as an example might be able to achieve far greater profits for Konami than MGS V in Japan. This is the reality of the situation, anyone who isn't already on the Switch train in Japan is going to fade into obscurity.
 
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cryptoadam

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This year was crazy for the switch so it might be tough to top but thats like a runner winning gold but not beating their world record every race.

AC was a huge driver and there is no AC. Buuuuut if there is an MK9 that could change the game.

Switch still gonna sell and with Pro and price cuts its gonna be very popular.

These early numbers in Japan dont bode well. Momentum is important and Sony is going to have a hard time coming off Nintendomination over the next 2 or so months.
 
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Camreezie

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Mario Kart 9 , BOTW2 and the next new mario game can still push their numbers to a ridiculous level. They can even only drop one of those each year and still achieve it
 

noshten

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Mario Kart 9 , BOTW2 and the next new mario game can still push their numbers to a ridiculous level. They can even only drop one of those each year and still achieve it
I think it's extremely unlikely to see Mario Kart 9, while Bowser's Fury is the new Mario game on the Switch next year, Monster Hunter Rise is definitely a bigger draw in Japan than Breath of the Wild 2. It's probably going to be the biggest launch on the system with a user base of 20 million I expect it's launch quarter to be somewhere in the region 3-4 million with digital in Japan. Even best case-scenario Breath of the Wild 2 isn't doing much more than 1 million during it's launch in Japan.
From unannounced games I think the we have a far bigger chance of seeing a Tomodachi, StyleSaavy, Rhythm Heaven, Kirby, Donkey Kong, Wario and a Zelda Remaster collection. I guess Nintendo could also launch a new IP which they haven't done since Ring Fit Adventure.
 
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yurinka

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Nintendo made estimations and they still don't announce to public if that is what they call a peak year or not (literally), then again the Switch is not the same as past consoles sale-wise and its hardware iterations and yet you still went on with the "same sales curve" narrative. Follow the handheld sales curve at least.
I followed all of Nintendo's fiscal reports, I know of them not reaching estimates once in Switch's time and lowballing hard for this FY.

"Companies often post sales estimations for their FY. Nintendo posted their estimation for this year, and was lower than the sales they announced for the previous one that day. So de facto they were accepting it was their sales peak. "
^^ Can you elaborate these more with numbers. I'm confused with your "previous one that day". Is that an estimate or sales, which sales?
When Nintendo posted their Switch 3th FY (the one ending in March 2020) results, they publicly mentioned that their Switch sales estimation for the current 4th FY (the one ending in March 2021) was 19M.

I mean, aligning PS4 and Switch sales by fiscal years and quarters, we see PS4 had an extra Q3 at launch. Outside that, all their quarters combined had almost the same sales. Switch expected to sell 19M for Switch's 4th FY, which is the same that PS4 sold in its 4th FY.

When they recently released the current Q2 sales (July-Sep 2020), they increased their Switch sales estimations for the current 4th FY from 19M to 24M, mostly because the Q1 and Q2 sales of the current FY were way bigger than they expected (way bigger than the Q1 and Q2 of the PS4 4th FY). They increased it 5M, which is approx. the lead Switch has over PS4 when launch aligning them by fiscal years and quarters, considering PS4 had the extra Q3.


I said MH had always released with a new model, an iteration not a launch model, at least after it exploded with its portable series. A new MH launch would always bring lucrative hardware numbers.
MH Freedom 2 - PSP-2000
MH Tri - Wii bundle
MH Portable 3rd - PSP-3000 SE bundle
MH3U - 3DSXL
MH4/MH4U - New3DS
MH World - PS4 Pro SE bundle
None of these games were released at the same time than these consoles or portables:

MHF2 (February 22, 2007 in Japan) wasn't a PSP2000 (September 20, 2007) launch game
MH Tri (August 1, 2009 in Japan) wasn't a Wii (December 2, 2006) launch game
MHP3rd (December 1, 2010 in Japan) wasn't a PSP3000 (October 16, 2008) launch game
MH3U (December 10, 2011) wasn't a 3DSXL (July 2012) launch game
MH4 (September 14. 2013) and MH4U weren't New3DS (October 11, 2014) launch games
MHW (January 26, 2018) wasn't a PS4 Pro (November 10, 2016) launch game

You forgot 4 main MH games, but it's the same:
MH (March 11, 2004), MHG (January 20, 2005) and MH2 (February 16, 2006) weren't PS2 (March 4, 200 ) launch games
MH Freedom (December 1, 2005) wasn't a PSP (December 12, 2004) launch game

So yes, it's very likely that they will make a game+console bundle with Switch in Japan, or that they may release a MH Rise themed limited edition Switch, but nothing points to think that they may release a Swich successor or Switch Pro the same day than the game, or even close to it.

BOTW2 have a chance to release 2021 now that 2020 COVID happens. Of course that's just my prediction, though with Zelda also almost always being launched in tandem with a new console model or iteration it's not a far-fetched prediction at all.
Most Zelda games weren't launch games for their consoles and portables. You can check their Japanese / original release dates in Wikipedia.

Pokemon never stopped releasing for more than 2-3 years. As always they'll bring in numbers
Pokemon release date:
In this list there are games listed as a new one when they are basically the same re-released with a few changes or additions (like Yellow or Red+Blue compared to Red and Green and Blue).

In that case, you can include 2020 as a game with Pokemons too, because they released 2 DLCs, also sold bundled with the game. They add more stuff than some of these 'repeated' releases.
 
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MagnesG

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When Nintendo posted their Switch 3th FY (the one ending in March 2020) results, they publicly mentioned that their Switch sales estimation for the current 4th FY (the one ending in March 2021) was 19M.

I mean, aligning PS4 and Switch sales by fiscal years and quarters, we see PS4 had an extra Q3 at launch. Outside that, all their quarters combined had almost the same sales. Switch expected to sell 19M for Switch's 4th FY, which is the same that PS4 sold in its 4th FY.

When they recently released the current Q2 sales (July-Sep 2020), they increased their Switch sales estimations for the current 4th FY from 19M to 24M, mostly because the Q1 and Q2 sales of the current FY were way bigger than they expected (way bigger than the Q1 and Q2 of the PS4 4th FY). They increased it 5M, which is approx. the lead Switch has over PS4 when launch aligning them by fiscal years and quarters, considering PS4 had the extra Q3.
So basically it's the same thought that I already had.

None of these games were released at the same time than these consoles or portables:

MHF2 (February 22, 2007 in Japan) wasn't a PSP2000 (September 20, 2007) launch game
MH Tri (August 1, 2009 in Japan) wasn't a Wii (December 2, 2006) launch game
MHP3rd (December 1, 2010 in Japan) wasn't a PSP3000 (October 16, 2008) launch game
MH3U (December 10, 2011) wasn't a 3DSXL (July 2012) launch game
MH4 (September 14. 2013) and MH4U weren't New3DS (October 11, 2014) launch games
MHW (January 26, 2018) wasn't a PS4 Pro (November 10, 2016) launch game

You forgot 4 main MH games, but it's the same:
MH (March 11, 2004), MHG (January 20, 2005) and MH2 (February 16, 2006) weren't PS2 (March 4, 200 ) launch games
MH Freedom (December 1, 2005) wasn't a PSP (December 12, 2004) launch game

So yes, it's very likely that they will make a game+console bundle with Switch in Japan, or that they may release a MH Rise themed limited edition Switch, but nothing points to think that they may release a Swich successor or Switch Pro the same day than the game, or even close to it.
Pre-portable era MH only sold around 1.5 mil max, the first one basically sold like 300k. That's why I mention before portable series exploded.

You're right, MH didn't released at the same time as any new console launch/iteration. It did have some limited SE models though, and for every new MH since Freedom 2 there's always a bundle of some sorts to drive in sales, there's always the relation of playing the new MH on the new console model (most apparent in the 3DS era), that's the main point of what I was talking here. They've had released the game at the best of a console's timeline, and MH Rise will not be different.

In this list there are games listed as a new one when they are basically the same re-released with a few changes or additions (like Yellow or Red+Blue compared to Red and Green and Blue).



In that case, you can include 2020 as a game with Pokemons too, because they released 2 DLCs, also sold bundled with the game. They add more stuff than some of these 'repeated' releases.
It still counts when those releases are separate and still sell like hotcakes.

Though I do agree that a new game may not come in 2021, they've had another team now so that they can handle 2 projects at the same time since 2009 HG SS. I'm just waiting for team who did 2017 US UM to release their next one. Probably a DP remake or something, and I'm thinking of 2021 release.
 
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santos287

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Man this is the first time in 25 yrs I smiled out on getting the console on release date. But I went pc, 3070 x ryzen 7. Eventually I will get my hands on ps5 .. hard to find anyways.