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QPAC: Warren suffers decline to 14% at third place. Biden 1st with 24%, Pete second with 16%, Warren now 3rd at 14%, Sanders 13%

Afro Republican

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Former Vice President Joe Biden has retaken the lead in the Democratic primary race for president as Senator Elizabeth Warren’s numbers have plummeted, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll released today. Biden receives 24 percent of the vote among Democratic voters and independent voters who lean Democratic, while South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg gets 16 percent, Warren receives 14 percent, and Sen. Bernie Sanders gets 13 percent. Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who just entered the race, receives 3 percent as do Sen. Kamala Harris and Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Sen. Cory Booker, businessman Andrew Yang, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro, and Sen. Michael Bennet each receive 2 percent. No other candidate tops one percent. Eleven percent are undecided. In an October 24 poll, Warren received 28 percent, Biden had 21 percent, Sanders was at 15 percent, and Buttigieg got 10 percent. “Biden is back on top of the pack but now there is a 3-way race for second. Buttigieg has broken into the top tier, apparently at the expense of Warren, who has taken a dive after being hammered for being too far left on health care and other issues,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy. When voters were asked their second choice, Warren came out ahead with 20 percent, Biden got 12 percent, Sanders got 11 percent, and Buttigieg received 10 percent.
Joe Biden: 24%
Pete Bootyedge: 16%
Warren: 14%
Bernie: 13%
Mike Bloomberg: 3%
Kamala Harris: 3%
Amy Klobuchar: 3%
Cory Booker: 2%
Andrew Yang: 2%
Mike Bennet: 2%
Julian Castro: 2%
Tulsi Gabbard: 1%
Wouldn't vote: 1%

11% of voters are undecided.
Split:

Men: 10% Undecided
Women: 11% undecided
White: 8% undecided
Black: 22% Undecided



46% of Democrat voters think Biden has the best chance to win.
Warren and Sanders both get 10% each, 6% for Pete Bootyedge. Last poll has Biden at 42%, Warren at 20%, Bernie at 14% and Pete at 2%, meaning Biden and Pete increased their likelihood of beating Trump from the last poll while Warren and Bernie dropped.

52% of voters think medicare for all is bad.


So, I know this will hurt a lot of people but I think it's time for Tulsi Gabbard to drop out. Along with her everyone at 2% since they can't get anywhere. I would have also said those with 3% as well, but outside Bloomberg most of those candidates are already nearly out of money so they'll be dropping out shortly by force, except Klobuchar who seems to be doing very well in the background without anyone knowing.

22% of black voters are undecided, that's open to any candidate that would like to take them. Most of those are men so leaving them there could cause them to leak to the republican side of the isle as we've been seeing. Biden has the plurality of course, or rather the majority of the ones that did decide.

Warren has been knocked down and Bernie while not having as severe a drop, is also in pretty poor shape. It seems like unless either of them can expand and take the traditional/moderate/leaning/blue dog democrat voters from Biden they are going to be sunk. It's starting to get to a point where even if one of the two drop out they still won't have the pull to beat Biden, and the radical left is more unpopular than ever now. One of the two will have to shave off some of that base to attract more moderate democrats or they may as well drop out.

Pete Bootyedge is still low but did gain an increase for some reason, I guess his good showing in Iowa is convincing some people, though traditionally in recent history winning Iowa means you lose the nomination but we'll see, we still have around 2 months until the vote and one (or 2?) more debates before then.

Mike Bloomberg is now at 3% of the vote, Deval Patrick is barely at 1%, so it seems that Mikes strategy of paying his way in and betting big on Super Tuesday along with Alabama and SC may be a good strategy if this ins't just a short-term bump. This is actually concerning, because couldn't he buy the superdelegates as well? At least the ones not already given to Biden? Hmmm.

Despite missing like 4 debates, and barely being on the news, Mike Bennet is still in the race somehow, that's pretty interesting. I guess he got access to some big donors to keep him running. But for how long?

1% of voters wouldn't vote for ANYONE that's currently running. I expect that number to increase as the field narrows unless we actually start seeing real debates during the debates to have candidates actually stand out instead of parroting the same issues and policies like abortions at birth, and taking all the guns and giving illegals free everything.

On that note, the desperation that caused several candidates to push Medicareforall was short lives as it's now unpopular with the majority of the parties base, not including the radical left which still supports it.
 
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Liberty4all

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Biden I feel will get demolished if he goes up against Trump. His mental capacity seems diminished due to age and it's really obvious.
 
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Musky_Cheese

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Biden I feel will get demolished if he goes up against Trump. His mental capacity seems diminished due to age and it's really obvious.
I don’t think that’s it. I think his team, his advisors are trying to make cater to twitter voters.

IMO, the Democrats need to realize that perhaps twitter doesn’t represent the issues of Americans on a large scale. When your campaign only thinks less than 300 letters/characters at a time, you are gonna be pretty shallow.

His lead “should” signal to his campaign that voters want to vote for someone who is established, has experience and can have wide appeal. He would have already ran away with it if he continued to be a moderate. Shame
 
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KINGMOKU

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Any poll that continues to lower the crazy socialist uncle's (Bernie)chances of ever becoming president is fine by me. I honestly think he is the only one of these dolts that actually believes in this socialist utopia nonsense.
 

Liberty4all

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I don’t think that’s it. I think his team, his advisors are trying to make cater to twitter voters.

IMO, the Democrats need to realize that perhaps twitter doesn’t represent the issues of Americans on a large scale. When your campaign only thinks less than 300 letters/characters at a time, you are gonna be pretty shallow.

His lead “should” signal to his campaign that voters want to vote for someone who is established, has experience and can have wide appeal. He would have already ran away with it if he continued to be a moderate. Shame
I don't know... He seems really feeble in the last year or so. I'm not ageist or anything but I really do think his mental capacity is going down with age.
 
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Tesseract

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Any poll that continues to lower the crazy socialist uncle's (Bernie)chances of ever becoming president is fine by me. I honestly think he is the only one of these dolts that actually believes in this socialist utopia nonsense.
he's the only one who wants to go full retard with it, as evident by his sourpuss face during the state of the union

not that i'm one to mind read, of course
 
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Joe T.

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These polls seem to be doing more to prop Biden up as the target everyone should be focused on attacking rather than as the likely 2020 nominee. I don't think Pete is getting the necessary attention as a result of that.

Pete's biggest hurdle is the lack of support with black voters, one that a charismatic black VP would be able to help him overcome. If that happens he can nail down all four early voting states, good luck beating him with that momentum. The debates left me with the impression that he'd be more than capable of attracting both the moderate and progressive crowd, his ideas with the former and his identity with the latter. "Youngest president ever" and "first gay president" would be enough to win over a large chunk of the progressives that currently aren't happy with what they would describe as centrist policy ideas (with a few exceptions).
 
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Afro Republican

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Pete's biggest hurdle is the lack of support with black voters, one that a charismatic black VP would be able to help him overcome.
I don't think you or anyone else who believes this know how VP's work or how much impact they actually have, which is closer to zero unless it's someone infamous like Palin.

Blacks don't vote for VP's they vote for Presidents, a gay guy using buzzwords and offering no solutions having a black VP isn't going to magically give Pete Bidens black voter support, or convince the other 22% of undecided Black voters to line up behind Pete. That's not how VP's work at all. The same applies to the 11% of white voters undecided, what could Pete possibly do to get them? Who's his demographic?

When you have 22% and 11% undecided Black and white voters respectively months into the season after 5 debates, you aren't getting those guys with a VP.
 

The Pleasure

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Sorry Pete Bootyjudge but your polling with minorities is softer than Liberace at the playboy mansion.
 

Joe T.

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I don't think you or anyone else who believes this know how VP's work or how much impact they actually have, which is closer to zero unless it's someone infamous like Palin.

Blacks don't vote for VP's they vote for Presidents, a gay guy using buzzwords and offering no solutions having a black VP isn't going to magically give Pete Bidens black voter support, or convince the other 22% of undecided Black voters to line up behind Pete. That's not how VP's work at all. The same applies to the 11% of white voters undecided, what could Pete possibly do to get them? Who's his demographic?

When you have 22% and 11% undecided Black and white voters respectively months into the season after 5 debates, you aren't getting those guys with a VP.
You're right that they don't have a great deal of impact. I think for me it's that I don't see his poor standing with black voters to be as big an issue as most others do because of the reasons, or lack thereof, behind that lack of support. It has more to do with the other candidates' appeal to black voters and less to do with his own disapproval among that group.

I think it's worth digging into Biden's support and where it comes from. I'm running with the theory that he had such a strong start to his campaign and maintained it because the majority of those supporters are what I'd call "low info voters" - they know him because of his eight years alongside Obama, the mainstream coverage and little else. In other words, they don't pay very close attention to politics and haven't spent 10+ hours watching the debates, which is why his gaffes haven't hurt him much in the polls.

That's not to say that there aren't very good reasons to support Biden. I just happen to think those reasons could easily be replaced by other candidates that happen to gain traction, Pete included. In order for them to win over the black vote they'll have to start making waves that get mainstream coverage - difficult to do that with impeachment swallowing news coverage.

Edited for spelling 'cause typos drive me wild.
 
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manfestival

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These polls are always hilarious to me. The polls swore up and down that their information when they got exposed during the last election. The fact that people are still trusting of these sources just shows how stupid people can really be.

ANYWAYS, if the information is remotely accurate then we can pretty much phone it in for Trump getting a second swing at the white house.
 

Zefah

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These polls are always hilarious to me. The polls swore up and down that their information when they got exposed during the last election. The fact that people are still trusting of these sources just shows how stupid people can really be.

ANYWAYS, if the information is remotely accurate then we can pretty much phone it in for Trump getting a second swing at the white house.
I don't understand what your criticism is. They are polls. Maybe you take issue with the pundits that try to treat the results as the "odds" for victory for any given candidate?
 

Afro Republican

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It has more to do with the other candidates' appeal to black voters and less to do with his own disapproval among that group.
You're' joking right? There are plenty of articles on how Blacks disapprove of him.

In other words, they don't pay very close attention to politics and haven't spent 10+ hours watching the debates, which is why his gaffes haven't hurt him much in the polls.
Or it could be he's the only moderate that has a chance to win that actually has a platform to stand on. We have the demographic information.
That's not to say that there aren't very good reasons to support Biden. I just happen to think those reasons could easily be replaced by other candidates that happen to gain traction, Pete included. In order for them to win over the black vote they'll have to start making waves that get mainstream coverage - difficult to do that with impeachment swallowing news coverage.
It's been over a year since the first candidates started up on the campaign trail, Biden was winning before he even announced he would run, it's been 5 debates, many town halls, everyones gotten air time, the media has plastered most of the candidates in everyones face, if Bidens "reasons" could be replaced that would have happened a few months ago, it's only 2 months until Iowa it's way to late to be thinking this way.
 

JORMBO

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Big drop for Warren. Details about healthcare plan came out and people realized she was lying about how it would be paid for. And then there’s all the other things she has lied about.
 

Platinumstorm

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These polls seem to be doing more to prop Biden up as the target everyone should be focused on attacking rather than as the likely 2020 nominee. I don't think Pete is getting the necessary attention as a result of that.

Pete's biggest hurdle is the lack of support with black voters, one that a charismatic black VP would be able to help him overcome. If that happens he can nail down all four early voting states, good luck beating him with that momentum. The debates left me with the impression that he'd be more than capable of attracting both the moderate and progressive crowd, his ideas with the former and his identity with the latter. "Youngest president ever" and "first gay president" would be enough to win over a large chunk of the progressives that currently aren't happy with what they would describe as centrist policy ideas (with a few exceptions).
I would argue that Pete B is exactly what Obama was talking about. I think he will be the candidate for Democrats, and I think he is the only one who can beat Trump. He really needs the support of President Obama and the First Lady, and that cannot happen until after Biden drops out.

Michelle Obama would be Pete's ultimate vice presidential pick, and that's a very difficult order for her, since she wants no part in this.
 
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Wow. Considering how low Pete was polling after the first bunch of primaries, I would have never guessed he'd be at 16% just below Biden.

Pretty sure in those early debates he had low single digit poll %'s.
 

Freedom Gate Co.

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I would argue that Pete B is exactly what Obama was talking about. I think he will be the candidate for Democrats, and I think he is the only one who can beat Trump. He really needs the support of President Obama and the First Lady, and that cannot happen until after Biden drops out.

Michelle Obama would be Pete's ultimate vice presidential pick, and that's a very difficult order for her, since she wants no part in this.
Pete still polling low, the poll in the OP has to be an outlier since its the only one putting him behind Biden.
 

HeresJohnny

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Such a fucking shitshow LOL. You've got a frontrunner that gropes little girls and is a gaffe machine. You've got Buttigie-whatever who seems to be surging but has 0% support from black Americans. You've got Warren who just drank her first beer at 70 and benefitted from lying about her ethnicity and wants to spend like 30 trillion dollars on health care and won't admit she has to raise taxes on the middle class to do it. You've got a Socialist with 3 houses and millions of dollars who went from villainizing millionaires to billionaires once he became one. You've got a woman whose sole skill seems to be the ability to suck start a leaf blower. Another woman no one has heard of, and another still who should be doing much, much better than she is but she isn't really a good fit for the party anymore.. A man who looks like a penis grew ears and eyes and was very angry about it. Like 3 other people no one cares about according to polls, and a billionaire who just jumped in for all the reasons aforementioned reasons.
 

Afro Republican

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Such a fucking shitshow LOL. You've got a frontrunner that gropes little girls and is a gaffe machine. You've got Buttigie-whatever who seems to be surging but has 0% support from black Americans. You've got Warren who just drank her first beer at 70 and benefitted from lying about her ethnicity and wants to spend like 30 trillion dollars on health care and won't admit she has to raise taxes on the middle class to do it. You've got a Socialist with 3 houses and millions of dollars who went from villainizing millionaires to billionaires once he became one. You've got a woman whose sole skill seems to be the ability to suck start a leaf blower. Another woman no one has heard of, and another still who should be doing much, much better than she is but she isn't really a good fit for the party anymore.. A man who looks like a penis grew ears and eyes and was very angry about it. Like 3 other people no one cares about according to polls, and a billionaire who just jumped in for all the reasons aforementioned reasons.
outside of Biden, this is most candidates last chance, BI don't know about eval yet, but Bloomberg already at 3% of the vote shows that the rest of the lineup is falling to pieces and people who aren't on the sidelines and are actually backing early are not loyal and will switch at any time.

It's likely Bloomberg and possibly Deval, will qualify for the December debate which means either a long huge one debate or a split in 2 again.

This means that everyone below Biden has to at the very least, if not increase their leads, put on a good enough show to lock at least half or more of the support they have now. if not, many will switch to other candidates, donors small and large will switch, and since December is the last or second to last debate before Iowa, the Super Delegates will start moving at the end of the years.

This is the most important time for all the current candidates outside of Biden and the two new guys. Winning Iowa won't matter if you don't have the Superdelegates or the endorsement/donor support which can at times effect how you get SD's. This isn't the Republican primary, you can't do well and adjust in the background and climb later, usually after Iowa the top 3-5 candidates are decided in the DNC primary and Super Tuesday is only to determine which 2 or 3 of those will be fighting for the nom while all the others are just running for show.
 

oagboghi2

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He does back up his arguments with facts, though. Unlike Mayor Pete who thinks black kids have NO role models and that's why majority black schools fail.
Liberals have said the same thing for years.


Liberals always go on that "lack of representation" is why *insert group* does poorly so what exactly is this terrible crime the mayor committed. Inarticulately recite liberal talking points?

Or is the problem that his answer wasn't "woke" enough. He didn't promise enough government money and increased beaucracy?
 

Afro Republican

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Who thinks black kids have NO role models and that's why majority black schools fail.
Well since the media and the educational system (which defunded 98% of black schools and closed them down to force them into integrated schools) all worked together to switch Black role models from a variety to entertainers and sports stars one could argue that's not entirely inaccurate.

Black schools fail however due to lack of funding and a structure that hasn't been fixed that makes it hard for alumni to do anything. Of course that's talking about colleges, all other black schools were closed down decades ago with the last few surviving until he 90's and all those teachers were out of a job. Too bad the teachers unions are racist and sexist and only hire white left-wing women 98% of the time, and every politician has backed them, if things changes maybe it could have been fixed and there would be more black schools now, oh well.
 

DeafTourette

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Liberals have said the same thing for years.


Liberals always go on that "lack of representation" is why *insert group* does poorly so what exactly is this terrible crime the mayor committed. Inarticulately recite liberal talking points?

Or is the problem that his answer wasn't "woke" enough. He didn't promise enough government money and increased beaucracy?
I think Pete's problem is his lack of accountability during his mayoral tenure ... With the black police chief and the incident that involved a black man being beaten by cops (iirc) and the cops not being reprimanded.

Pete has 0% of black support for his candidacy. I don't think it's because he's gay and it's DEFINITELY not because of "woke" or promises of free stuff (which isn't actually free). I think it's because he hasn't gone into black communities and actually TALKED to them.
 

Afro Republican

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I don't think it's because he's gay
While his record as mayor is part of the issue, this is a very stupid statement to make, this will always cause a good chunk of them to never vote for him even if he does rise from 0% to 3%. Him going out to talk to them isn't going to work, just like it's not going to work in religious areas. I will say while it wouldn't be much he might get away with better than expected, but still low support if he actually had a good mayoral record, his mayor record makes things worse.

Not only did he fire a chief that was addressing racism, he covered up cop shootings, he tried to outprice people out their neighborhoods to built them, and he still red-line-esque policies still on the books showing he never even tried to fix not just the Black community relations there, but the low income in general.

South Bend is literally a small city with barely any people and he can't run it, and he's gay on top of that and says he's "Married" which will turn many people off AND he has already compared the LGBT to the Blacks multiple times?

He will continue to have near non-existent black voter support and he will lose pretty much most Christian populated states that aren't fake outs like Iowa.
 
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oagboghi2

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I think Pete's problem is his lack of accountability during his mayoral tenure ... With the black police chief and the incident that involved a black man being beaten by cops (iirc) and the cops not being reprimanded.

Pete has 0% of black support for his candidacy. I don't think it's because he's gay and it's DEFINITELY not because of "woke" or promises of free stuff (which isn't actually free). I think it's because he hasn't gone into black communities and actually TALKED to them.
Talked to them for what? Are they going to tell him something we don't already know.

Their black Democrats. We already know what they want.

-more resources,
-higher taxes
-higher government spending.

Mayor Pete isn't as far left as the others. He isn't promising everything plus the moon. Why would a black Democrat support him.
 

DeafTourette

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Talked to them for what? Are they going to tell him something we don't already know.

Their black Democrats. We already know what they want.

-more resources,
-higher taxes
-higher government spending.

Mayor Pete isn't as far left as the others. He isn't promising everything plus the moon. Why would a black Democrat support him.
I'm just saying talk to the community. Engage with them. Give them his plans IN PERSON of what he will do as President.

And everyone wants more resources... Just every group wants DIFFERENT resources. Farmers want more subsidies. Wall Street wants more tax cuts (which frees up more money for them). The poor want more access to health care and food. The military (not the industrial complex) wants higher pay. It's just a matter of what CAN be increased and what can't. From taxes to services... It's give and take.
 

Joe T.

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You're' joking right? There are plenty of articles on how Blacks disapprove of him.

Or it could be he's the only moderate that has a chance to win that actually has a platform to stand on. We have the demographic information.

It's been over a year since the first candidates started up on the campaign trail, Biden was winning before he even announced he would run, it's been 5 debates, many town halls, everyones gotten air time, the media has plastered most of the candidates in everyones face, if Bidens "reasons" could be replaced that would have happened a few months ago, it's only 2 months until Iowa it's way to late to be thinking this way.
Not joking, just making a guess based on a general overview of past elections from Bill Clinton onward. A friend once told me "the masses are asses" when we were younger, which rolls off the tongue, but dumbasses makes more sense. That's not meant to insult, it just happens to be a fairly accurate way to describe the majority of a country's voters, US or otherwise, because the majority of people don't spend the necessary time to educate themselves on the various issues and people running for office. It's like watching so-called progressives trashing Bernie Sanders while supporting Hillary Clinton, it made absolutely no sense from a policy perspective and gets to the point I was making.

Many of Biden's supporters won't be too bothered about switching to another candidate should he be knocked out of the race, some will be annoyed and make the switch anyway because almost anyone is better than Trump in their eyes. For me it's not even a question of if, it's when because I just never saw how an old, white man would be able to reach the finish line after all the talk the Democrats and the media put into promoting women these last few years. It also happens to be why I believe Pete would be the only man that could potentially come out of that field - identity is the Dem calling card and he's got the edge over every other man in the race.

AOC and Buttigieg have a bit of a spat going and the way I see it that's going to help him more than it will Sanders since it'll add to his cred as a moderate, which is what Biden supporters want. Like I said, it's just a guess and I've been wrong before - I thought Harris would be doing better at this point in the race. Her campaign has one foot in the grave already, despite all the endorsements from Cali to South Carolina. I'm personally more curious to see how that Sanders and Warren battle shakes out on the progressive side of the field than the one on the establishment side.
 
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Afro Republican

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Not joking, just making a guess based on a general overview of past elections from Bill Clinton onward. A friend once told me "the masses are asses" when we were younger, which rolls off the tongue, but dumbasses makes more sense. That's not meant to insult, it just happens to be a fairly accurate way to describe the majority of a country's voters, US or otherwise, because the majority of people don't spend the necessary time to educate themselves on the various issues and people running for office. It's like watching so-called progressives trashing Bernie Sanders while supporting Hillary Clinton, it made absolutely no sense from a policy perspective and gets to the point I was making.

Many of Biden's supporters won't be too bothered about switching to another candidate should he be knocked out of the race, some will be annoyed and make the switch anyway because almost anyone is better than Trump in their eyes. For me it's not even a question of if, it's when because I just never saw how an old, white man would be able to reach the finish line after all the talk the Democrats and the media put into promoting women these last few years. It also happens to be why I believe Pete would be the only man that could potentially come out of that field - identity is the Dem calling card and he's got the edge over every other man in the race.

AOC and Buttigieg have a bit of a spat going and the way I see it that's going to help him more than it will Sanders since it'll add to his cred as a moderate, which is what Biden supporters want. Like I said, it's just a guess and I've been wrong before - I thought Harris would be doing better at this point in the race. Her campaign has one foot in the grave already, despite all the endorsements from Cali to South Carolina. I'm personally more curious to see how that Sanders and Warren battle shakes out on the progressive side of the field than the one on the establishment side.
None of this makes sense.

You and other people on this board start out with something that seems like a good point until you mess it up trying to spin it to bump up Pete which is nowhere near the moderate Biden is.

Heres The thing, Biden voters arent moving, 60% of them haven't budged because of the policies of the others, 35% of those 60 were behind Biden when he teased he was likely going to run, but had not announced yet. It's been over a year, we've had 5 debates and multiple town halls, the biggest statements and gags were trending on social media for months, Pete is not going to go anywhere and he's barely a moderate.

I don't get this, look at Warren, she was the first non-Biden candidate to elaborate on her policies and it crashed her into a ravine. Sanders has been gradually sinking for awhile. We are 2 months from Iowa annd everyone else is going to have to explain their policies between the next debate and the Iowa vote, most of Pete's policies are far left with some safe positions that won't help him. Him being gay and being a shit major of a city with marginal population is going to screw him.

You're not really educating yourself if you believe the current climate is going to help Pete when it's not. You can only bootlick the DNC so many times before you lose value. There's a reason why some DNC staffers contacted Hillary, no one on the field has proven yet to be a better choice than Biden.

Your other claim about the dems not putting in a white man is equally absurd, that's not a DNC thing that's a Sanders/AOC/socialist far left thing. None of the women "currently" in the race have a chance to win with maybe the possible exception of Klobuchar who is right of Pete. The DNC is Hillary and Pelosi controlled they will put Biden in If no one else displays they have a better chance of beating Trump.

But that's clearly not happening when Bloomberg jumps in due to the lineup collapsing. Even Obama coached Decal before he jumped in. You seem to be seeing this field differently than everyone else.
 

Afro Republican

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Talked to them for what? Are they going to tell him something we don't already know.

Their black Democrats. We already know what they want.

-more resources,
-higher taxes
-higher government spending.

Mayor Pete isn't as far left as the others. He isn't promising everything plus the moon. Why would a black Democrat support him.
Black Democrats don't support anything you said (outside west coast women) most Dem black voters are single issue. Where did you even get this? What black democrat off the west coast wants higher taxes?
 

DeafTourette

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Black Democrats don't support anything you said (outside west coast women) most Dem black voters are single issue. Where did you even get this? What black democrat off the west coast wants higher taxes?
I think he means higher taxes on the wealthy and mega corporations.

And black Democrats are single issue? You paint them as being simpletons? Dang!
 
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Joe T.

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None of this makes sense.

You and other people on this board start out with something that seems like a good point until you mess it up trying to spin it to bump up Pete which is nowhere near the moderate Biden is.

Heres The thing, Biden voters arent moving, 60% of them haven't budged because of the policies of the others, 35% of those 60 were behind Biden when he teased he was likely going to run, but had not announced yet. It's been over a year, we've had 5 debates and multiple town halls, the biggest statements and gags were trending on social media for months, Pete is not going to go anywhere and he's barely a moderate.

I don't get this, look at Warren, she was the first non-Biden candidate to elaborate on her policies and it crashed her into a ravine. Sanders has been gradually sinking for awhile. We are 2 months from Iowa annd everyone else is going to have to explain their policies between the next debate and the Iowa vote, most of Pete's policies are far left with some safe positions that won't help him. Him being gay and being a shit major of a city with marginal population is going to screw him.

You're not really educating yourself if you believe the current climate is going to help Pete when it's not. You can only bootlick the DNC so many times before you lose value. There's a reason why some DNC staffers contacted Hillary, no one on the field has proven yet to be a better choice than Biden.

Your other claim about the dems not putting in a white man is equally absurd, that's not a DNC thing that's a Sanders/AOC/socialist far left thing. None of the women "currently" in the race have a chance to win with maybe the possible exception of Klobuchar who is right of Pete. The DNC is Hillary and Pelosi controlled they will put Biden in If no one else displays they have a better chance of beating Trump.

But that's clearly not happening when Bloomberg jumps in due to the lineup collapsing. Even Obama coached Decal before he jumped in. You seem to be seeing this field differently than everyone else.
You have to keep in mind that I'm trying to predict how the average person is viewing the race, not you or I. I have a low opinion of the entire field, Biden included, but whoever walks out of it as the nominee will likely still be able to win over 60M+ voters come November 3rd, 2020 because the race ultimately comes down to one thing: are you comfortable with another four years of Trump? Most of the mainstream media's spent several years smearing Trump, the nominee won't have much convincing to do. Turnout for the 2018 midterm elections was high because of all the money poured into them, I have no reason to believe the same won't hold true for 2020. The advantage there goes to the Dems.

Trump has the economy roaring and his opponents have literally no major legislation under their belts - they can't even really claim they tried - so he should be able to coast to an easy victory in 2020, but that would be underestimating the media's influence. Look at how half the country apparently wants to remove him for a call that would have never risen to the level of impeachment had it been repeated word for word by a Democrat. I still think he has an uphill battle and it's one I'd like to see him win given the way the press/media continue to conduct themselves. They deserve four more years highlighting their poor practices and no Democrat will take them to task for that, unless Bernie magically gets elected because the establishment would surely rail against him, too.
 
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Afro Republican

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You have to keep in mind that I'm trying to predict how the average person is viewing the race, not you or I. I have a low opinion of the entire field, Biden included, but whoever walks out of it as the nominee will likely still be able to win over 60M+ voters come November 3rd, 2020 because the race ultimately comes down to one thing: are you comfortable with another four years of Trump? Most of the mainstream media's spent several years smearing Trump, the nominee won't have much convincing to do. Turnout for the 2018 midterm elections was high because of all the money poured into them, I have no reason to believe the same won't hold true for 2020. The advantage there goes to the Dems.

Trump has the economy roaring and his opponents have literally no major legislation under their belts - they can't even really claim they tried - so he should be able to coast to an easy victory in 2020, but that would be underestimating the media's influence. Look at how half the country apparently wants to remove him for a call that would have never risen to the level of impeachment had it been repeated word for word by a Democrat. I still think he has an uphill battle and it's one I'd like to see him win given the way the press/media continue to conduct themselves. They deserve four more years highlighting their poor practices and no Democrat will take them to task for that, unless Bernie magically gets elected because the establishment would surely rail against him, too.
I don't get your panick here because everything you said happened in 2016 and Hillary still lost despite holding a record in ad spending until recently beaten by Bloomberg.

I really dont think you see another similar issue that also appeared in 2016, vote splitting.

Even though the socialist left, which grew to about 30% of the party, wants Trump to lose, many of them aren't voting for Biden, especially since this time there are like 15 radical left leaning candidates instead of just one. If Biden gets the nomination your prediction of him getting the same or similar votes as Hillary is very unlikely for that reason.

This isnt just "The Bernie Show" anymore, only a handful of candidates are moderate to center and two of those just joined the race in the last month. It was obvious there would be issues when we had over 10 candidates, the DNC and dem politicians see the field failing thats why Obama advised Deval to run and why Bloomberg joined in. Both candidates saying originally they had no interest in running.

Look at what happen to Warren, her policies were already divisive but now that she elaborated on them a good number of her base left her, some went back to being undecided, I expect this to happen with all the other long running candidates except Biden since he's just going with Obama's policies.

You got to remember that in 2016 it was only Hillary and Bernie with Martin only there to steal votes. They ran on "if you elect trump everyone is being deported, Nazi klansman everywhere, the country will go bankrupt, he will kill us will!!! Ahhh!!!" with many billions spent, constant news coverage making shit up, the Hollywood access tape, etc, and still lost. One of the reasons for that being Bernie or nothing guys. Hillary being stuck up being reason number one.

Right now I don't see anything close to that going on, at least not at the same severity. I think none of these candidates can bring out the same rage, the media is even more untrusted than before, and impeachment is lukewarm.

I don't think there's much to worry about honestly