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Rakuten analyst ups his prediction, "PS5 will sell 200M-300M units in 5-6 years, data suggests 700M units long term is possible"

Allandor

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Feb 8, 2018
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Weren't there predictions of 1 billion consoles sold in this gen is possible?

I really don't think that we will see more than 150m. Those are only the wet dreams of analysts. PS4 was really strong this gen and "only" sold in that 130-150m area.

Maybe 300m next gen consoles overall.
There is much more competition these days, not less. PC get's stronger again, streaming services, smartphones, ...
Really don't think that there will be more customers in the next generation.
 

ChuckeRearmed

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Jan 31, 2018
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PS5 will sell between 1 and 1kkk :messenger_tears_of_joy:

Though if it will be able to conquer Chinese market...Though I presume mobile is dominating everywhere.
 

Raonak

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PS5 Sony is basically firing on all cylinders. Exclusives, Launch Games, great hardware (although a bit weaker than the SX, but quite a bit better than SS). The things they are behind on, services is okay, and bc is narrow, but encompassing on most PS4 games.

The biggest thing they have going on is momentum. I think even moreso than last gen, a ps5 feels like a must have due to their first party lineup. Nintendo like.

But even nintendo doesn't reach those numbers. So chances are very slim.
 

Orta

console wars 2020 - participant
Apr 26, 2018
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So one out of every eleven people on the planet is going to buy a PS5?

I wonder which of these folk will get one? My money is on old Jim at the front there. Looks a hardcore Demons Souls fan. Takes his gaming very seriously.

 

TonyK

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Aug 13, 2020
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So our moms will buy a PS5 also or is it because consoles will break easily and we will buy 3 each of us?
 
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balls of snow

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Oct 13, 2020
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Nah. For some reason or another, hardcore gaming always taps out at 150 million and well, the ps5 is pretty much a console that only gamers will love the look of. Aesthetic is still a thing and to sell iphone levels you need to be sexy in the eyes of the general non hardcore gaming public.
 

FunkMiller

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Aug 14, 2014
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This is the single fucking dumbest thing I’ve ever seen on GAF, and that’s quite the achievement.

700 million? Ten percent of the world’s population?

Fuck me.

It’ll sell about 120 million.

Where do these lunatics come from?
 
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Max_Po

Member
Mar 1, 2015
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This claim/prediction is extremely stupid. I think PS5 will do PS4 numbers at most.

When PS4 started, Nintendo was abysmal and MS has fuckt themselves after the Xbox1 reveal.
 

ExKing

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Aug 8, 2020
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700 million lifetime ? LOL.
So the PS5 would sell more than all Playstation consoles combined ?
-_-
 

FrozenFlame

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Jan 4, 2020
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The data suggest that in the future, the number of PS5s could reach the order of 600 million or 700 million, four or five times the number of PS2s, which was the highest number ever for home video game consoles. Mr. Imanaka said, "If the number of transfers from PS4, which is backward compatible, is about 120 million, and if more than 100 million e-sports competition population and 400 million spectator population are added, PS5 will be 6 in total. It can be a market of more than 100 million units. "
I'm out of the loop, what does he mean with "100 million e-sports competition population"? Is there that many people on the e-sports? And how come the 3 types of "population" mentioned here don't overlap? And why would the spectator population purchase a console based on the e-sports scene?
 

jigglet

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May 18, 2020
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lol listen to you fucking fanboys. Won't you be looking like quite the fool when PS5 sells 50-70 billion consoles.
 

martino

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Apr 25, 2013
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ok i could see it if ps5 was releasing in China but it's not the case for now it seems.
but if they release there without competition 200M+ is not impossible imo.
 
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Kokoloko85

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Sep 26, 2019
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No thats a bit nuts lol.

I dont see anyone doing PS2 numbers, Maybe PS5 and Switch including Switch Pro but doubt
 

Kokoloko85

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Sep 26, 2019
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lol listen to you fucking fanboys. Won't you be looking like quite the fool when PS5 sells 50-70 billion consoles.
Im sure it will will go past 100M as its coming in alot more popular than PS4 came in. And will probably sell more than PS4.
All Playstation consoles have sold more than 70m

Now don’t expect Xbox to get past 60million units ever again or close.

Switch can probably get past 100M
 

Kokoloko85

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Sep 26, 2019
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Kings come and kings go. Sony won't sell 400 million consoles. They might not even reach 100 million.
They will get past 100million. There coming in hotter than PS4 did with alot better 1st year of games. Which PS4 didnt have
And Xbox is coming off the Xbox one that has barely reached 50million
 

Clear

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Feb 2, 2009
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Said it before, but I really want to know his rationale for expecting such a massive increase in market size. Just remove Sony from it and replace with any other company and it'd still be outlandish without some sort of explanation as to why such a thing is possible.
 

LazyParrot

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Mar 19, 2019
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Esports switching from PC to PS5 has to be one of the most outlandishly stupid predictions I've seen in years.
 

dvdvideo

Report me for SonyGAF. SonyBots, fanboys > 04/27
Sep 15, 2005
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Why is this thread still alive? If we allow it, its like endorsing other crazy threads like:

-Bethesda games won't be exclusive to xbox.
-Sony isn't developing games for pc
-making multiplatform games ruins next gen
-ms is buying sega this week
-there is no xbox series s
-the new atari machine will sell more than a million units
- both new console launches have lots of great
launch titles

The list goes on and on!
 
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ThisIsMyDog

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Mar 20, 2019
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The overall sales of consoles are practically not growing by generation. And suddenly PS5 will double the result of PS4? Can someone explain to me how analysts come to such conclusions?

PS5 is cheaper than PS4? No.

Games are cheaper? They are more expensive.

Microsoft fucked up like Xbox One? I think they look better now.

Suddenly parts of the world where consoles were too expensive have become rich enough to buy them? I don't think so.

And as for this esport... still for $500 you can buy a PC that can handle esports games, CSGO, LOL, Overwatch and more. Why a console for that?
 

bender

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When Emmitt Smith came into the league, he didn't tell his teammates that when all was said and done the he wanted to be be the 6th leading rusher of all time. He dreamed big and said he wanted to be number one. Just because no console has old 200m units doesn't mean it is impossible. The road to 700m starts now.

 

Papacheeks

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Jan 30, 2013
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I doubt PS5 will reach 100 million units. This has nothing to do with Sony or how good or bad the PS5 is. Sony's simply going to be facing stiffer competition next gen. This is true in any industry. If a Tesla competitor came out with better specs and comparable price, quality and features, it's a fact that Tesla won't sell as many cars as they did previously.

I said it before and I'll say it again: Every generation that Sony had a 2:1 marketshare, they had some type of advantage. They either launched a year earlier or their competition made huge screw-ups. Sony has never faced competition like this before.

If I was a betting man, I'd look at the 360/PS3 situation to get a better idea how things will go this time around. Yes, Sony screwed up early in the generation but that ended up being a wash with Xbox screwing up at the end of the generation with the Kinect falling off a cliff. Sony was able to catch up and surpass MS with a strong first party lineup. But they still lost 50% marketshare from the previous generation while Microsoft almost tripled theirs. So Microsoft won that generation.

This time Microsoft has the pricing advantage and the games advantage. You can argue how we haven't seen shit from Microsoft first parties yet, but if only half of the 23 studios put out hit games that's a regular cadence of AAA games throughout the year. You can talk as much shit as you want about this, but when the next Elder Scrolls game drops it's going to make an impact and sell consoles. Starfield is going to sell boxes. Sony has never faced competition like this.

I've been gaming long enough to know that kings come and kings go. Thirty years ago I would have laughed in your face if you told me Sega would go out of the hardware business and the Walkman and VCR company would be the market leader one day. I thought the Playstation was the next Philips CDi or Panasonic 3DO. Shit, 3DO even had Naughty Dog making games for them.

Kings come and kings go. Sony won't sell 400 million consoles. They might not even reach 100 million.
They will easily get to 100 Million. How long it takes to reach that is the bigger question.
 

MrFunSocks

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Jul 9, 2020
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I guess this analyst wants to leave the analysis industry, cause oh boy that’s a swing and a miss. All the consoles combined won’t sell close to that lol.
 
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JORMBO

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Mar 5, 2009
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If it sells 300m in 6 years (lol) why would it sell another 400m units after that point? I would assume the next generation would be pretty close then. I don't really buy their eSports write up.
 
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Azelover

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Dec 3, 2004
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I'm not gonna say it's impossible, just very unlikely.

In order for it to happen, more markets would have to be opened to their full potential. China, South America, India, etc..And considering the price of the PS5, I highly doubt that'd happen. It'd be very very difficult.

I'm saving this topic BTW. If the world doesn't end in a few years, we can go back here and either have our collective minds blown, or just laugh.
 

Killer Sakoman

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Mar 17, 2020
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The numbers are too unrealistic, however, PS5 has crazy demand. I saw people who are not interested in gaming standing in the pre order queue.
Probably COVID is causing too much free time 😂😂😂 as it destroyed social life.