• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Clickbait S&P500 is back to 2018 levels...

longdi

Ni hao ma, fellow kids?
Jun 7, 2004
5,857
1,574
1,820
Late Jan-18 it was around 2880
Today is down to 2980, and falling more and more.

We are done for. Retirement set back by 2 more years, optimistically. Trump and his croonies can't manipulate ze tweets. And thanks to cutting CDC funds, USA may fall harder than China...

Reminder never to buy in fast rising markets, no matter what DCA-ETF books tell you.

Did Sp500 crashed that hard during H1N1. :messenger_loudly_crying:
 

brohmbel

Member
May 12, 2009
875
544
985
Did Sp500 crashed that hard during H1N1. :messenger_loudly_crying:
H1N1 happened a little after the bottom of the recession in 2009, so the economy was already in the toilet. But looking at the market graph from back then, it looks like it was on an upswing pretty much throughout the H1N1 pandemic. (Which was a weakass pandemic anyway.)

Also, not sure what's so special about Jan 2018? 2018's market bottom was late in the year, around xmas, not in January. So we have a ways to go.
 

TUROK

Member
Aug 27, 2010
4,874
926
810
AP put out an article stating that that the CDC has actually received an increase in funding. This bullshit about him defunding the CDC simply isn’t true.
He tried but Congress didn't follow through.


He did succeed in downscaling international efforts to fight infectious diseases in many countries including China, though.

And his 2021 budget proposal does have cuts to the CDC.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VanEs

longdi

Ni hao ma, fellow kids?
Jun 7, 2004
5,857
1,574
1,820
If USA goes down to corona, we are fucked.
Recession and lost of jobs. Do you all believe in the Trump?
 

Spokker

Member
May 31, 2011
1,669
233
735
If USA goes down to corona, we are fucked.
Recession and lost of jobs. Do you all believe in the Trump?

(It's 45 seconds in if the stupid thing doesn't work. But if it doesn't work just forget the whole joke. I don't know.)
 
  • Love
Reactions: longdi

V2Tommy

Member
Oct 19, 2017
1,128
1,501
510
Canada
If you were that close to retirement why didn’t you switch to low risk/bonds in your portfolio?
I think he meant projected retirement. But yes. I mean... you can liquidate any time and go back in. No one has to watch their retirement dissolve in real time.
 
Last edited:

E-Cat

Member
Jan 14, 2013
3,849
436
620
fatality rates vary and overall on the low end
Well, the average rate doesn't vary since it's the... average. :p Even if it's lower than two percent, it is still likely to be a lot more deadly than the flu. Now, if it gets to the global pandemic level - you do the math. It's worth keeping on your radar, at least.
 

Tesseract

Crushed by Thanos
Dec 7, 2008
48,694
34,501
1,705
The Pentagon
Well, the average rate doesn't vary since it's the... average. :p Even if it's lower than two percent, it is still likely to be a lot more deadly than the flu. Now, if it gets to the global pandemic level - you do the math. It's worth keeping on your radar, at least.
average is skewed and differed by the outliers but i generally agree with your last sentence
 
  • LOL
Reactions: gatti-man

E-Cat

Member
Jan 14, 2013
3,849
436
620
Are you about to retire?

If not, who cares?
Something for younger people to consider:

Let's say you are between the age of 15 and about 30. Your parents might be of age 35 to 60; and their parents will typically be of age between 55 to 90; let's assume about 75 years old for the grandparents. And let's say 50% of the U.S. population becomes infected this year (this is WHO and CDC estimates for the world); and, let's assume the death rate is going to be in the range of about 2% to maybe 7% for people in that age range. Let's split the difference, and call it 5%.

If all 4 of your grandparents are alive, the chance that none of them dies from coronavirus this time around will be

(P(survives | not infected) P(not infected) + P(survives | infected)P(infected))^4 = (1*(1/2)+ (19/20)*(1/2))^4 = about 90.4%.

In other words, the probability that at least one of them dies is going to be about 10%.

And if all the grandparents are between the age of about 75 and 85, the probability of one of them dying is probably a lot higher, pushing the chance that one of them contracts the virus and dies to maybe around 20% or slightly less.

Young people with 3 or fewer grandparents will not have to worry as much; also, if the infection rate stays low, there won't be as much worry, either.

All told, a very large percent of a school class would have funerals to attend to, regardless, especially if older aunts, uncles, and cousins are included.
 
  • Thoughtful
Reactions: TUROK and longdi

Tesseract

Crushed by Thanos
Dec 7, 2008
48,694
34,501
1,705
The Pentagon
Something for younger people to consider:

Let's say you are between the age of 15 and about 30. Your parents might be of age 35 to 60; and their parents will typically be of age between 55 to 90; let's assume about 75 years old for the grandparents. And let's say 50% of the U.S. population becomes infected this year (this is WHO and CDC estimates for the world); and, let's assume the death rate is going to be in the range of about 2% to maybe 7% for people in that age range. Let's split the difference, and call it 5%.

If all 4 of your grandparents are alive, the chance that none of them dies from coronavirus this time around will be

(P(survives | not infected) P(not infected) + P(survives | infected)P(infected))^4 = (1*(1/2)+ (19/20)*(1/2))^4 = about 90.4%.

In other words, the probability that at least one of them dies is going to be about 10%.

And if all the grandparents are between the age of about 75 and 85, the probability of one of them dying is probably a lot higher, pushing the chance that one of them contracts the virus and dies to maybe around 20% or slightly less.

Young people with 3 or fewer grandparents will not have to worry as much; also, if the infection rate stays low, there won't be as much worry, either.

All told, a very large percent of a school class would have funerals to attend to, regardless, especially if older aunts, uncles, and cousins are included.
 

Amory

Member
Jul 10, 2008
10,515
383
825
Connecticut
Something for younger people to consider:

Let's say you are between the age of 15 and about 30. Your parents might be of age 35 to 60; and their parents will typically be of age between 55 to 90; let's assume about 75 years old for the grandparents. And let's say 50% of the U.S. population becomes infected this year (this is WHO and CDC estimates for the world); and, let's assume the death rate is going to be in the range of about 2% to maybe 7% for people in that age range. Let's split the difference, and call it 5%.

If all 4 of your grandparents are alive, the chance that none of them dies from coronavirus this time around will be

(P(survives | not infected) P(not infected) + P(survives | infected)P(infected))^4 = (1*(1/2)+ (19/20)*(1/2))^4 = about 90.4%.

In other words, the probability that at least one of them dies is going to be about 10%.

And if all the grandparents are between the age of about 75 and 85, the probability of one of them dying is probably a lot higher, pushing the chance that one of them contracts the virus and dies to maybe around 20% or slightly less.

Young people with 3 or fewer grandparents will not have to worry as much; also, if the infection rate stays low, there won't be as much worry, either.

All told, a very large percent of a school class would have funerals to attend to, regardless, especially if older aunts, uncles, and cousins are included.
Ok but I was talking about the stock market performance. Not anyone's grandparents
 

E-Cat

Member
Jan 14, 2013
3,849
436
620
Ok but I was talking about the stock market performance. Not anyone's grandparents
Well, if the stock market is crashing already in anticipation of such an event, imagine what will happen if the virus ends up infecting over 1 billion people -- it may... or it may not. We just don't know for sure yet. When the number of people in the U.S. reaches 10,000, or when large numbers in India are infected, then I would start to be really concerned.

I think it is logical for our reactions to reflect the seriousness of the perceived risk. Let's say that you believe there is a 50% chance of the Coronavirus going pandemic; and, given that this happens, there is about a 70% chance you will catch it; and, given that it goes pandemic and you catch it, let's suppose there is a 2% you will die in the next couple months. Then, the chance it will go pandemic, that you will catch it, and die from it soon, is around 0.7%, and if you are a male, it might be 1.4%. That's SIGNIFICANTLY higher than your chances of dying from anything else in that time; and your reaction should reflect that.

Furthermore, if you consider your chances of getting very, very sick, and having to be hospitalized for a significant amount of time with round-the-clock care -- not dying, but worrying that you could any minute; family is called in to see you one last time; relatives cry and cry -- then the probability might jump to 3% or 5%. If you include "the worst case of the flu you have ever experienced, causing you to miss a significant number of days of work and screwing up your schedule", then it might be more like 10%.

Again, I am not saying any of this WILL happen. But it could; and therefore, you should care even if you're not "about to retire".
 
Last edited:
  • LOL
Reactions: Tesseract

Amory

Member
Jul 10, 2008
10,515
383
825
Connecticut
Well, if the stock market is crashing already in anticipation of such an event, imagine what will happen if the virus ends up infecting over 1 billion people -- it may... or it may not. We just don't know for sure yet. When the number of people in the U.S. reaches 10,000, or when large numbers in India are infected, then I would start to be really concerned.

I think it is logical for our reactions to reflect the seriousness of the perceived risk. Let's say that you believe there is a 50% chance of the Coronavirus going pandemic; and, given that this happens, there is about a 70% chance you will catch it; and, given that it goes pandemic and you catch it, let's suppose there is a 2% you will die in the next couple months. Then, the chance it will go pandemic, that you will catch it, and die from it soon, is around 0.7%, and if you are a male, it might be 1.4%. That's SIGNIFICANTLY higher than your chances of dying from anything else in that time; and your reaction should reflect that.

Furthermore, if you consider your chances of getting very, very sick, and having to be hospitalized for a significant amount of time with round-the-clock care -- not dying, but worrying that you could any minute; family is called in to see you one last time; relatives cry and cry -- then the probability might jump to 3% or 5%. If you include "the worst case of the flu you have ever experienced, causing you to miss a significant number of days of work and screwing up your schedule", then it might be more like 10%.

Again, I am not saying any of this WILL happen. But it could; and therefore, you should care even if you're not "about to retire".
This thread is about the S&P and that's all i was talking about

I wasn't saying I have no concerns about the virus (though I'm quite a bit less concerned than you are)
 

E-Cat

Member
Jan 14, 2013
3,849
436
620
70% you will catch it? What ever you say chicken little.
If it goes pandemic.

This thread is about the S&P and that's all i was talking about

I wasn't saying I have no concerns about the virus (though I'm quite a bit less concerned than you are)
I realize that. I am coming up with some hypothetical scenarios to help people visualize the impact in their mind's eye. The secondary economic effects are easy to deduce.
 
Last edited:

longdi

Ni hao ma, fellow kids?
Jun 7, 2004
5,857
1,574
1,820
Dropped below the 2 years level with no end in sight.
Great Virusseion is coming!
Thats what happened when you shift everything into China and have your balls grabbed.
 
  • Like
Reactions: vpance

redfirm

Member
Mar 12, 2012
902
761
785
Dropped below the 2 years level with no end in sight.
Great Virusseion is coming!
Thats what happened when you shift everything into China and have your balls grabbed.
this is actually really good for the future of the world economy. companies will learn not to have everything made in china.
 

Liberty4all

Member
Nov 11, 2007
9,599
952
1,350
I pulled everything I have out of equities on Monday and into bonds.

Thank goodness as I was 100% S&P 500 equities.
 
Last edited:

TUROK

Member
Aug 27, 2010
4,874
926
810
If it goes pandemic.

I realize that. I am coming up with some hypothetical scenarios to help people visualize the impact in their mind's eye. The secondary economic effects are easy to deduce.
You're vastly overestimating the power of inference that the average member of this community has.
 

Liberty4all

Member
Nov 11, 2007
9,599
952
1,350
My opinion: this crash was destined to happen even if the coronavirus crisis didn’t trigger it.

I can't find the right chart but basically corporate earnings are WAY less than current stock price valuations.

Companies have been allowed to push their stock up by corporate stock buybacks. They borrow money because interest rates are so low and buy their own stock. The ridiculous profits made in the market dwarfs the cost of the debt. The problem is that it’s money based on speculation rather than actual earnings.

The feds have been supporting the markets as well with quantative easing (they aren't calling it that but that's basically what it is). Because they can't let boomers retirement savings get vapourized. But the wheels gonna fall off eventually. The stock market is being artificially inflated to the point they can't stop or it will go BOOM. Same reason they can't raise interest rates to normalized levels.

It's all intertwined together and created a bubble of massive proportions. Coronavirus likely the black Swan event that blows up the system, 2008 or worse all over again. So the coronavirus is one issue that will have a huge effect on earnings ... earnings that ALREADY don’t remotely reflect inflated stock prices. In 2008 they “saved” the system by printing money. They never stopped printing, billions go into the stock market to prop it up.

Basically there is systemic issues with the stock market right now going back years in part due to low interest rates for way too long (cheap money cheap debt) and not enough regulations on companies ability to pump their own stock prices.

Now though we have stock pumped up for 10 years with printed money and they can't allow it to deflate to real earnings. But this Coronavirus thing has the real potential to blow up the system if it spreads anywhere nearly as bad as it did in China. Think the market this week was bad? Imagine the virus spread all over America. Can’t print vaccines sadly.
 
Last edited:

Ownage

Member
Nov 5, 2018
862
906
330
www.zombo.com
Homies, respect to you if you strugglin.

If you aren't and have some cash around, wait til it flat lines and buy like a mofo. Wait. Rest. Don't listen to those who are gloom and doom. Buy low and ride it hard when it pops off.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Liberty4all

Liberty4all

Member
Nov 11, 2007
9,599
952
1,350
Homies, respect to you if you strugglin.

If you aren't and have some cash around, wait til it flat lines and buy like a mofo. Wait. Rest. Don't listen to those who are gloom and doom. Buy low and ride it hard when it pops off.
That’s my plan too despite what I just said earlier ... will be switching back to all equities. The hard part is figuring out what the bottom is going to be and when to jump back in.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ownage

greyshark

Member
Feb 15, 2011
1,855
712
875
St. Louis
That’s my plan too despite what I just said earlier ... will be switching back to all equities. The hard part is figuring out what the bottom is going to be and when to jump back in.
If you don’t need that money anytime soon (retirement account), no need to wait IMO. You’ll never be able to predict the bottom.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ownage

Liberty4all

Member
Nov 11, 2007
9,599
952
1,350
If you don’t need that money anytime soon (retirement account), no need to wait IMO. You’ll never be able to predict the bottom.
I think it’s going lower, waaaaay lower.

Eventually earnings versus stock price need to be a hell of a lot closer than they are right now. Also I’m waiting to see if covid-19 spreads in bad (uncontained) way a North America. If it does I expect further deep drops. Recessions can last years. The feds have what ... maybe 2 or 3 interest rate cuts left in the bazooka?
 
  • Thoughtful
Reactions: Ownage

btgorman

Member
Jul 26, 2009
2,082
2,029
925
My opinion: this crash was destined to happen even if the coronavirus crisis didn’t trigger it.

I can't find the right chart but basically corporate earnings are WAY less than current stock price valuations.

Companies have been allowed to push their stock up by corporate stock buybacks. They borrow money because interest rates are so low and buy their own stock. The ridiculous profits made in the market dwarfs the cost of the debt. The problem is that it’s money based on speculation rather than actual earnings.

The feds have been supporting the markets as well with quantative easing (they aren't calling it that but that's basically what it is). Because they can't let boomers retirement savings get vapourized. But the wheels gonna fall off eventually. The stock market is being artificially inflated to the point they can't stop or it will go BOOM. Same reason they can't raise interest rates to normalized levels.

It's all intertwined together and created a bubble of massive proportions. Coronavirus likely the black Swan event that blows up the system, 2008 or worse all over again. So the coronavirus is one issue that will have a huge effect on earnings ... earnings that ALREADY don’t remotely reflect inflated stock prices. In 2008 they “saved” the system by printing money. They never stopped printing, billions go into the stock market to prop it up.

Basically there is systemic issues with the stock market right now going back years in part due to low interest rates for way too long (cheap money cheap debt) and not enough regulations on companies ability to pump their own stock prices.

Now though we have stock pumped up for 10 years with printed money and they can't allow it to deflate to real earnings. But this Coronavirus thing has the real potential to blow up the system if it spreads anywhere nearly as bad as it did in China. Think the market this week was bad? Imagine the virus spread all over America. Can’t print vaccines sadly.
Yep it’s all down to the fed monetary policy.

They used their tools to inflate asset prices (stocks, real estate, etc). Now it all comes crashing down. They’ll pump money into the failing system to maintain illusion that everything is under control. Not sure if it’s gonna work...
 
  • Like
Reactions: Liberty4all

longdi

Ni hao ma, fellow kids?
Jun 7, 2004
5,857
1,574
1,820
Yep it’s all down to the fed monetary policy.

They used their tools to inflate asset prices (stocks, real estate, etc). Now it all comes crashing down. They’ll pump money into the failing system to maintain illusion that everything is under control. Not sure if it’s gonna work...
That's what happen when dumb investors allow trump to manipulate the market the last 3 years.
Now that a virus, crazy Nkorea, evil Russia and scheming Saudis, all wants to crash n burn the USA

Im not sure how trump can get back control? Start a freedom war some where?
 
Last edited:

btgorman

Member
Jul 26, 2009
2,082
2,029
925
That's what happen when dumb investors allow trump to manipulate the market the last 3 years.
Now that a virus, crazy Nkorea, evil Russia and scheming Saudis, all wants to crash n burn the USA

Im not sure how trump can get back control? Start a freedom war some where?
The Fed are an independent institution that are unaccountable to voters or any one person. Milton Friedman regarded the Fed with derision.

Why are you talking about Trump? When was the last time you voted for the Fed chairman? You can vote out Trump in November if you wish just like you had your chance 3.5 years ago.

This shit has been ongoing since 2008 and they never deigned to slow down or stop it. Was that Trumps fault too? Please tell me what Hilldawg would do that would’ve fixed the Fed?
 
Last edited:

longdi

Ni hao ma, fellow kids?
Jun 7, 2004
5,857
1,574
1,820
I was too young then, so this is how the next financial crisis, depression, recession,black swan, black monday, starts.
 

V2Tommy

Member
Oct 19, 2017
1,128
1,501
510
Canada
This is looking real bad. The problem with "the bottom" is that you don't know what it is until it starts going up.
 

longdi

Ni hao ma, fellow kids?
Jun 7, 2004
5,857
1,574
1,820
Sony, don't cry, PS5 will be here soon. :messenger_tears_of_joy:
I have a feeling Ps5 will be delayed. No cheap Chinese labor. Recession, loss of work. Stock markets setting back retirement.

Who have free money left for silly videogames
 

TrainedRage

Member
Feb 3, 2018
6,817
9,411
810
34
USA
.... can’t wait to invest, just waiting on my friend in the biz to give me the go ahead. Great little use of my tax rebate.