Azelover said:
The PS4 will not sell as well as the PS3.
This is incredibly difficult to explain in human terms, but I will try and maybe someone who should will understand it. The model for the NES/N64--->SNES/Gamecube is being utilized by Sony now, but it's not something they've done historically here. When they first came into the market they used something that would translate to a reversed process compared to what they're using now. But since Nintendo's power vastly declined from repeating the same map moving into the N64/Gamecube combo, they figured they'd try the other way and thus try to achieve market purity once again, and retain power. Ironically that resulted in an even bigger slump because it didn't really play to their strength.
Nintendo is for the third time in a row doing the tried and true, the Wii is basically NES3 fueled up, and as a result you'll also see SNES3 fueled up to the same degree, because true generations include two succeeding individuals, not one. PS3's path is included in a larger process, true generations only form in pairs, the PS4 is gonna be part of this same PS3 wavelength until PS5-6 start(or whatever else they call it, I think they'll sacrifice the name). To the PS3, the PS4 will trend more like the PSone as it compared to the PS2. Slower start and increasing sales to a peak around the very end of the cycle probably, compared to the PS3 which will probably begin grinding to a halt after last year's(or this year's) peak. Nevertheless PS3's total sales will finish higher than PS4's.
You might be able to look at similar situations from the previous consoles generations, and by looking at this, then you might be 100% correct about how things will turn out for the PS3, but personally i think it is too early to say too much about how the PS4 will sell because we bascily know nothing about how the PS4 will be.
As long as there is a product on the market that people are interested in and as long as the price is within a massmarket range, then i dont think it matters
too much on how the previous product in the same serie of products sold.
Or, maybe it can depend on how bad the previous product in a serie was. For example, if Volvo makes a car called "1", and this car has many errors with it, and then they later make a car called "2", then some people might have much bad experience with car "1", and because of this then they might not trust car "2" as well, and then they might not buy this because of how car "1" was. Did that make any sense?
I dont know how good this car example i mentioned above here resemblance the console sales though. I mean, the Nintendo 64 was a good console (at least in my opinion
), and the Gamecube sold less than the Nintendo 64, so it wasnt sure that people thought that the Nintendo 64 was a bad console because they didnt buy a Gamecube as well, if you know what i mean?
But regarding how the previous consoles sold. Look at the Gamecube and Wii for example. Why didnt the Gamecube sell about as much as the Wii does? Personally i think it is mostly because of 2 reasons:
1. The PS2 came out before the Gamecube and the PS2 had already been "set" (or what i shall say) as the popular console.
2. The Gamecube were too similar to the PS2 both when it comes to the functions of the console and with the graphics. I know that the Gamecube had more powerful hardware than the PS2 and that some of the Gamecube games had better graphics than what the PS2 had, but the difference in the graphics between the PS2 and the Gamecube werent exaclty really
that big, at least in my opinion, and at least not compared to the graphical diffrence between the Wii and the PS3/Xbox 360 for example.
When the Wii was released, it had something that was rather unique, and the price was also pretty good, at least compared to how much the Xbox 360 and the PS3 costed when these 2 consoles were released. Combining the rather unique control scheme that Wii has with the realtively low price of the console, that is a very good combination in my opinion, and i think this is why the Wii is selling so good.
If the Wii were basicly a Gamecube 2, with the same control scheme as the Gamecube had and with more similar graphics like the PS3 and the Xbox 360 has, and if the Wii had cost something like 349 or 399 US dollars when it was released, then i dont think it would have sold that well.
What i am basicly trying to say is that i dont think it matters too much on how the PS3 is if the PS4 comes with some feature(s) that is rather unique and that many people are interested in, just like the Wii did, and if the price of the PS4 is more mass-market friendly compared to how the PS3 was/is, just like the Wii is
I think that what feature(s) the PS4 (or any other consoles for that matter) will bring, which games that will come out for the PS4 and what price the console(s) cost is what matters the most if the PS4 will sell more than the PS3 or not.
I am not saying that the PS4 will come with some unique feature(s) like the Wii did, or that the PS4 will get alot of big selling game titles, or that the price on the PS4 will be more mass-market friendly from the release date of the PS4 compared to how the price on the PS3 was at the release date just to underline that, but since we basicly dont know anything about how the PS4 will be or how much the PS4 will cost, then i personally think it is alittle too early to say too much about that the PS4 wont sell more than what the PS3 did, but that is just my opinion
EDIT: Or maybe there is something that we "know" about the PS4, or at least what might be concidered as safe bets, is that the PS4 will use a Bluray drive and a Cell CPU like the PS3 did. I would be suprised if Sony doesnt include a Bluray drive and a Cell CPU in the PS4 at least, because if they dont, then i wonder how it will be with the PS3 backward compability (i think it is a safe bet that Sony wants PS3 backward compability on the PS4 at least)