September 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 10th

Was in Best Buy last weekend and these divider like things when you first walk in had forza 7 ads plastered all over them and the actual Xbox section had a woman and a guy from (I'm assuming) Microsoft, sitting around waiting to answer customers questions about the X.

I was walking around them to look at the Nintendo stuff and I could feel them looking at me as if they wanted to sell me an Xbox. Guess they were desperate as no one else was around that area at the time.
 
As for october, it looks like the Switch numbers will be massive: 3 skews stand in the top 20 on both amazon.com and amazon.ca. Nintendo appears to have dramatically increased the supply.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2017-10/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#1
#FAKENEWS
Super Mario Odyssey bundle is 21st in US for October ;)

Seriously, though, it does seem that way. Comparing to April, where Switch sold 280k, the current ranking is much better, too, so it does look to be a massive number for October.
 
September NPD video game software sales were up 31% year-over-year due to the launch of Destiny 2 from Activision Blizzard (ATVI), the second biggest title of the month, Piper Jaffray analyst Michael Olson tells investors in a research note. He notes the top title for the month was NBA 2K18 from Take-Two Interactive (TTWO). The analyst says Activision is tracking well ahead of his estimates and consensus, while Electronic Arts (EA) and Take-Two are slightly lagging. Olson keeps an Overweight rating on all three names.
http://thefly.com/landingPageNews.p...-game-software-sales-rose--says-Piper-Jaffray
 
Destiny 2 tracking ahead analyst estimates... #2
NBA tracking below analysts estimates... #1

Weird... or revenue making difficult again???

Remember that this is the physical sales release.

Destiny 2 was no doubt bigger on digital.
It is physical + digital revenue... only Nintendo is not sharing digital.
 
Destiny 2 tracking ahead analyst estimates... #2
NBA tracking below analysts estimates... #1

Weird... or revenue making difficult again???


It is physical + digital revenue... only Nintendo is not sharing digital.
Looks to be that D2 is also pretty sizably down in NA.

Anyone know what the last NBA game launched to?
 
But if we aren't getting numbers, then we aren't missing much from the picture?



Thanks!

Doesn't seem like a good result for D2 at all.
Digital is going to be huge, but still a drop from Destiny 1.

Can't wait for every other sequel to their 2014 launch to under perform. We have what now, Titanfall, Watch Dogs, Destiny, probably Evil Within? Middle Earth might be the only sequel to see improvement.
 
Will you have the time to do another YouTube video presentation? Loved the one from last month.
Yep. Thanks! I'm going to try to bring a bit more energy to this one. You can take the guy out of the corporate, but it's tough to take the corporate out of the guy.

But if we aren't getting numbers, then we aren't missing much from the picture?
The media release has a bunch of numbers, and I add more via the presentation. And if there's meaningful stuff I always try and address.

I get the criticism, but there's enough out there to come up with directional conclusions without needing flashing strobe lights attached to it.
 
Digital is going to be huge, but still a drop from Destiny 1.

Can't wait for every other sequel to their 2014 launch to under perform. We have what now, Titanfall, Watch Dogs, Destiny, probably Evil Within? Middle Earth might be the only sequel to see improvement.
Maybe Wolfenstein. But I don't know how well it launched. But that seems like a title where I think I think WOM was more impactful to sales then launch for the original.
 
Can't wait for every other sequel to their 2014 launch to under perform. We have what now, Titanfall, Watch Dogs, Destiny, probably Evil Within? Middle Earth might be the only sequel to see improvement.
Even at retail I fully expect Middle Earth to be down from its predecessor. With digital it might be up, but I don't really expect hardly any titles moving forward to sell significantly more at retail than their predecessors, outside of surprise major hits (not saying retail is dead mind you, just that digital is becoming a much larger picture than it was even 2-3 years ago)

The media release has a bunch of numbers, and I add more via the presentation. And if there's meaningful stuff I always try and address.

I get the criticism, but there's enough out there to come up with directional conclusions without needing flashing strobe lights attached to it.
Hey Mat, without giving any actual sales numbers will you be able to provide us the digital split % for Destiny 2? I'm expecting a near record split for it (on a AAA console game) and it would be really interesting to see the percentage breakdown
 
Even at retail I fully expect Middle Earth to be down from its predecessor. With digital it might be up, but I don't really expect hardly any titles moving forward to sell significantly more at retail than their predecessors, outside of surprise major hits (not saying retail is dead mind you, just that digital is becoming a much larger picture than it was even 2-3 years ago)
True, but I believe launch NPD could see an improvement only because Shadow of Mirror launched late September 2014 while SoW is an early October launch, so more days to count for.

Also thinking about that, maybe Wolf 2 will be down. Just remembered it's a late October launch.

Good thing NPD actually get digital data (for most games) now!
 
True, but I believe launch NPD could see an improvement only because Shadow of Mirror launched late September 2014 while SoW is an early October launch, so more days to count for.

Also thinking about that, maybe Wolf 2 will be down. Just remembered it's a late October launch.
Ah good call on number of days. Welfare you are always excellent at keeping number of days tracked in your analysis for comparisons, something I regrettably forget to do all too often
 
50% decrease in retail? That's new thread worthy.
Without a digital split in 2017 not really because the actual drop is nowhere near that.

But if you want a thread with 20 pages of hot takes on why Destiny is a doomed and or failed franchise then by all means go for it because that's exactly what that thread will be
 
Without a digital split in 2017 not really because the actual drop is nowhere near that.

But if you want a thread with 20 pages of hot takes on why Destiny is a doomed and or failed franchise then by all means go for it because that's exactly what that thread will be
Unless a digital split is going to be provided, I'm not sure what the point of waiting is?

If someone can tell me that a digital ratio will be provided, I'll be glad to hold off on making the thread. But since that probably won't happen, and we probably aren't getting numbers, I don't think avoiding hot takes is a good enough reason to not make the thread.