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Sales-Age September 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, October 10th

Stanng243

Member
Oct 11, 2013
2,549
0
385
I try not to comment on releases from other firms.

My forecast currently has Q4 as competitive between PS4 and Xone in the US, assuming only 600k Xbox One X's are sent to retail, which could be a massive miss to actuals.

If many more get shipped, then I could see a scenario where Xone outsells PS4 in holiday.

But there are far too many unknowns to think that any projection is particularly solid.

Thank you. I have no problem with reasonable predictions. When they predict things like the original xbox one and the xbox 360 both outselling the xbox s, and the switch getting outsold by the XBox X and the PS4 Pro, I have to wonder what drugs they were taking.
 

Welfare

Member
Feb 24, 2014
14,511
0
430
Can’t see that unless Sony doesn’t do its usual $50 drop with another $50 promotional. A $199 PS4 will fly off the shelves especially if it’s a Star Wars bundle.

If Nintendo can ship a lot I see Xbox being last.

No console is hitting $199 this holiday. Microsoft have $279 bundles that'll most likely go down to $229 and Sony has only been releasing 1TB bundles at $299. Those'll go down to $249 and with maybe the possibility of $229 if they want to compete with the One S.
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
572
0
0
Can't see that unless Sony doesn't do its usual $50 drop with another $50 promotional. A $199 PS4 will fly off the shelves especially if it's a Star Wars bundle.

If Nintendo can ship a lot I see Xbox being last.

Yeah, again, far too many unknowns for any particular prediction to be solid.

Game consumers love to buy shiny expensive new things that play on shiny expensive new other things at holiday time. Lots of shiny new things to buy this year. Should be fun regardless.

That makes sense. Which is rare when reading these threads!

I'll get to s&(#posting later. Wheeeeeeeeee

Thank you. I have no problem with reasonable predictions. When they predict things like the original xbox one and the xbox 360 both outselling the xbox s, and the switch getting outsold by the XBox X and the PS4 Pro, I have to wonder what drugs they were taking.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 

Vena

Member
Sep 2, 2014
16,385
0
0
Pretty sure they'd start reaching losses at 199$, can't see the APU having shaved enough or other parts having reached a low enough point for 199$ to not hit at their margins in ways they'd not like.

They'll bundle software.
 

MatPiscatella

Member
Nov 1, 2016
572
0
0
Thanks Welfare, saved me a step.

We ran out of fingers and toes to count everything, we're recruiting more fingers and more toes.
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
1
1,290
I think Xbox will outsell PS4 in november due to the X, and can win the month depending of how many units Nintendo will ship.

December i'm betting on Switch, Nintendo must ship a ton of units for the month. Between PS4 and XBO anything can happen.
 
Jul 23, 2012
1,176
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485
I think Xbox will outsell PS4 in november due to the X, and can win the month depending of how many units Nintendo will ship.

December i'm betting on Switch, Nintendo must ship a ton of units for the month. Between PS4 and XBO anything can happen.

You're betting PS4 be the worst selling system in November? Hell naw..

We'll see, but I doubt that mane. Would like a professional take on that, but that's not something I'm seeing.
 

shimon

Member
May 12, 2017
842
0
240
You're betting PS4 be the worst selling system in November? Hell naw..

We'll see, but I doubt that mane. Would like a professional take on that, but that's not something I'm seeing.

But someone has to be no.3 in November. Nintendo is on a roll and has Mario at the end of October. Xbox finally releases "the most powerful console". Good luck predicting November...
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
1
1,290
You're betting PS4 be the worst selling system in November? Hell naw..

We'll see, but I doubt that mane. Would like a professional take on that, but that's not something I'm seeing.

I don't know if will be the worst seller, I believe will sell less than Xbox One. Have no idea how many units Nintendo will be able to ship.
 

blakep267

Member
Dec 9, 2013
6,322
2
210
You're betting PS4 be the worst selling system in November? Hell naw..

We'll see, but I doubt that mane. Would like a professional take on that, but that's not something I'm seeing.
It's not out of the question. The Xbox usually sells fairly well in November and December and you will have X pre-orders coming in.
 

Fafalada

Fafracer forever
Jun 22, 2004
7,708
358
1,745
Welfare said:
No console is hitting $199 this holiday.
In US perhaps - but they were at 199 in Europe last holiday, we may see select sub 199 deals this year.
 

Sangetsu-II

Member
Dec 5, 2014
4,803
1
340
US
Are NPD Predictions still gonna be a thing going forward? Is Mat still gonna post here? RetailGaf still alive? or are or off this things dead? :/
 

eerik9000

Member
Nov 19, 2014
1,170
0
345
Estonia
In US perhaps - but they were at 199 in Europe last holiday, we may see select sub 199 deals this year.

Indeed. I checked and at the moment in Estonia the prices start at 220 (Xbox One S 500GB HDD) and 230 (Playstation 4 Slim 500GB HDD) euros. I totally expect both to be available at less than 200 during the holidays.
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
1
1,290
I don't know if donny is leaving or not, but would be nice to have the results here, since the predictions were already made.
 

Shizza

Member
Dec 17, 2013
509
0
475
I just wanted to say that I've really enjoyed the discussion in these sales threads over the years. It's neat seeing the viewpoints from a variety of different perspectives, including analysts, retail employees, and your average gamer. I've learned a ton, and wanted to thank everyone for their thoughtful input, and hope that it can continue here or somewhere else in the future.