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Share your anecdotal evidence that Trump is going to win

Madonis

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The average tax % paid has dropped less than 10% since the 90% rates of the 50s.
You're right, regarding the average. That's indeed a valid observation, because there's always been ways to reduce the effective taxes paid. Even so, there's also been a large increase in total spending needs, including not just on entitlements but also on the military and other areas.

It isn't irrational to want both the nominal and the effective tax rates paid by the richest of society to increase in order to cover such necessities. It is likely that there will still be deductions and other options for them to reduce their actual tax burden, since closing all loopholes is a pipe dream, but I think that raising the average rate of taxes paid by 10% or 20% would still be worthwhile at this point in history.
 
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Apr 12, 2013
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The working class isn't stupid, though the intellectuals treat them as such. And they aren't voting against their interests... most just don't agree with you. They don't want free things. They want a fair shake, and the freedom and chance to succeed.

While the left pretends to be for the working class, they actually hate the working class [ignorant racists with plumber's crack, white trash rednecks, muscle bound bros, God fearin' rubes]... and the working class sees this two faced bullshit for what it is. That is, the working class recognizes the intellectual class as two-faced fart sniffers and admires the rich as success stories ... and the intellectuals will never forgive them for this. They hate that the working class doesn't believe their promises, and votes for Trump - crying 'why oh why are those deplorables "voting against their own best interests", those sad ignorant racists'.

Capitalism offers the working class a fair shake, and a chance to succeed. It isn't perfect, no system is. But it beats the hell out of standing in breadlines while The Party of intellectuals eats caviar and looks down their noses at everyone else. It's why Bernie supporters tend to be young, well off, college educated kids pretending to be working class rebels and antifa.
I wasn't talking about any particular class, but I will.

I am the working class. Growing up I was poor as shit. I've worked my way up from the bottom just to be able to comfortably call myself working class. And very soon I might even be considered middle/upper middle class if things work out. So don't think I'm attacking the working class (or any class) in general when I say people vote against their interests.

I'm talking about Trump supporters who have now seen over 3 years of what he has to offer, to see through his "drain the swamp" lies, to see his tax cuts screw normal people over and vastly benefit the already wealthy...and even though they've gotten nothing out of it...some will vote for him again regardless. Whether that's stupidity or ignorance (maybe thanks to media?) or what I don't know, but it is very much voting against your own interests when there is a candidate who is out there actually fighting for them.

It's probably easy for some to see this all in a democrat vs republican way when the reality is 95% of the clowns on both sides are basically the same in that they're corrupt pieces of shit, who are not working in the people's interests.

Going back to the "strong economy". Who does this really mean anything for? It isn't doing a hell of a lot for the working poor/working class. Maybe they get the privilege of a job that allows them to survive at best, but not actually live any kind of fulfilling life when they either don't make enough to even pay their bills, or only make enough to do so because they're working 50-60 or even more hours every week. When does this very strong economy start working for us? Under Trump, the answer to that is never.

Also, Sanders supporters (despite what you apparently think) ARE the working class. It's who he is fighting for. There is a class war in this country and for far too long now the rich have been waging it against the working class, stealing our money and turning us into wage slaves. Now, we are fighting back. They know it and it's why Sanders is smeared all over the media and by nearly everyone perched up at the top. Those in power are very much interested in keeping that power, and Sanders is a very real threat to that. He is the biggest threat to that in modern history. I'm confused on why you'd think his supporters are mostly well off and college educated. I'm sure some in fact are, but the vast majority of his base is almost certainly the working class.
 
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monegames

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Educate me. Maybe I'm reading biased or non factual information.

Here are the kinds of things I see on his tax cuts https://itep.org/updated-estimates-from-itep-trump-tax-law-still-benefits-the-rich-no-matter-how-you-look-at-it/
Interestingly, this statement does not dispute the fact that most of the benefits of TCJA go to the rich. ITEP’s most recent analysis estimates the richest 5 percent of taxpayers will receive $145 billion in tax cuts in 2020, which is half of the law’s benefits that go to U.S. taxpayers. The richest 20 percent of taxpayers will receive $205 billion in 2020, which is 72 percent of the law’s benefits that go to U.S. taxpayers.
The richest 20% got 72 percent of the tax break. Can you guess what percentage of income taxes they pay? Here is a hint.
Oh look, their share of taxes is more than the share they got in breaks. Looks like someone might have gotten screwed over. Maybe you are right.
 

cryptoadam

... and he cannot lie
Feb 21, 2018
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You want a crazy anecdote? 25 million people follow Trump on Facebook (and it was still high before he won). Meanwhile 5.3 million follow Bernie. I have 60 friends that follow Trump. 7 that follow Bernie.

No matter what some loud millennial screams out from the rooftops about Bernie, the public isn't going to vote for some mad scientist looking socialist
You mean 25 million Russian bots. And you better check those 60 friends, most likely Russian bots as well.
 
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The richest 20% got 72 percent of the tax break. Can you guess what percentage of income taxes they pay? Here is a hint.
Oh look, their share of taxes is more than the share they got in breaks. Looks like someone might have gotten screwed over. Maybe you are right.
Unless you're in that top percent yourself, I don't even know what to say to this other than refer back to my point of people voting against their own interests.
 
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monegames

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Unless you're in that top percent yourself, I don't even know what to say to this other than refer back to my point of people voting against their own interests.
My interests are wanting to be in the top percent one day, yes it almost surely won't happen. I want the path to that as open as possible. I want others to have that same possibility, especially my kids. I don't want government regulations to be a hinderance to that path. So, tell me again how voting Republican is against my interests.

You presented the tax cut as screwing over the lower earners. The data shows that the bottom 80 got a larger share in breaks than the share they pay in.
 
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My interests are wanting to be in the top percent one day, yes it almost surely won't happen. I want the path to that as open as possible. I want others to have that same possibility, especially my kids. I don't want government regulations to be a hinderance to that path. So, tell me again how voting Republican is against my interests.
Sounds like we both (probably most) want the same thing in the end. The disagreement I guess is on how to get there. I hope that at some point you listen to what Sanders himself is actually saying (not filtered through biased media) and consider the possibility that he could possibly be a better way to get there.
 
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captainraincoat

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Complain about hate/racism and general negativity a trump supporter has

Attack it with the same hate/racism and negativity in reverse

i think is purely life experience that’s the problem today...most of the worst people are general shut ins who live off social media and have a persecution complex

its actually your own fault...shut off the fucking computer/phone and go for a run/walk or something
 
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DunDunDunpachi

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Sounds like we both (probably most) want the same thing in the end. The disagreement I guess is on how to get there. I hope that at some point you listen to what Sanders himself is actually saying (not filtered through biased media) and consider the possibility that he could possibly be a better way to get there.
I can't speak for the person you're replying to, but for some people, their opinion of Sanders has little or nothing to do with how he is smeared in the media. Personally, I don't trust the media to portray him accurately anyway, but his ideology, the things his supporters have been caught saying, and his own speeches have given me enough reason to doubt what he says and to be wary of his promises.

You're preaching to the choir if you want GAFers to accept that the media is a distorting lens. We're aware. If you want people to listen to what Sanders himself is saying, then your wish is granted, we've been listening. There have been a lot of threads about all the candidates and Bernie has always been a part of the discussion for as long as I've been here, and he has always been given his due without unfair distortion.

You have to accept that some people are coming to these conclusions without any push from the media distortion.
 

monegames

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Sounds like we both (probably most) want the same thing in the end. The disagreement I guess is on how to get there. I hope that at some point you listen to what Sanders himself is actually saying (not filtered through biased media) and consider the possibility that he could possibly be a better way to get there.
I actually liked Bernie, wouldn't have voted for him because he seemed too weak, till he started down the woke/Intersecectional path. I never thought his policies were the right way to go, but I believed he was genuine. Saying white people don't know what its like to be poor was really when I wrote him off in my head. Then he just knelt to the DNC after everything. I still believe he let it go because he was promised a position in her cabinet. In my opinion he betrayed his supporters. I just saw him as a political opportunist.
 
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#Phonepunk#

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Michael Bloomberg being taken seriously at all

For real if that hateful little elf gets the nom then I won’t just vote for Trump I will volunteer for him too
 
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draw4wild

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I live in NJ. I've seen plenty of Trump signs and flags, I even saw Christmas lights that spelt out Trump. I see no signs for any of the democrats even though they will win in NJ, it was the same in 2016.

I always think voting for someone will drive way more people to the polls than voting against someone
 

MrMephistoX

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All my Democrat friends think he will win because they don’t have any strong candidates.

This and my lifelong republican dad saying the same thing: he wrote himself in for 2016 because he couldn’t stand either of them.
 
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Woo-Fu

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The primary evidence that Trump will win appears to be the utter lack of evidence pointing to him not winning.

Is there any evidence that most of the people who voted for him in the last election won't this time around? Nope.
Is there any evidence that the democrats will come out in force unlike the last election? Nope, the primary turnout wasn't significantly better than last election and was a far cry from what it took to get Obama elected.
Is there any evidence that any of the dems in the primary could raise any meaningful metric other than presidential decorum? Nope.

I don't think he even needs to campaign. Should be spending that money on gold plating for the wall.
 
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MrMephistoX

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My dad was the same way except he just didn’t vote for the first time in his life. He said he will vote for Trump in 2020.
Mine said he might vote Trump if Bernie gets the nomination just to avoid a socialist but otherwise he’s sitting out again. He’ll still vote just not for president.
 
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womfalcs3

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Anecdotally... I will vote for Trump. I have to let an economic downturn occur with him in office so he stops taking credit for the continuation of the Obama recovery.
 

OuterLimits

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I am a moderate Republican and while I could maybe support Biden, I definitely would vote Trump over Bernie. In fact I just got perma banned on the other site for saying the same thing. Banned for "inflammatory support". Never been banned there and posted hundreds of times. Ah well, 😂 I guess not liking socialism is a big no no on Reset.

I think Sanders would be tough just because giving people "free" stuff and forgiving all college debts will be attractive to people. Never mind the fact he would tank the economy at the same time.
 

Cleared_Hot

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Feb 25, 2018
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Here's mine:

Was talking to my financial advisor about buying an S&P500 Index fund:

"So these are 5 star rated funds, and although there is some risk and the market is already quite high, I think it'll still do well..."

"Oh? Why is that?"

"Well, because looks like Trump will be re-elected, so..."
I made over 20% on my tsp this year. Had i gone with the c fund, i wouldve gotten 30%

Yeah, trumps getting reelected.
 
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Krappadizzle

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Sounds like we both (probably most) want the same thing in the end. The disagreement I guess is on how to get there. I hope that at some point you listen to what Sanders himself is actually saying (not filtered through biased media) and consider the possibility that he could possibly be a better way to get there.
All one has to do is go to Bernisanders.com to see all the pie-in-the-sky pipe dreams of a list that he would like to do. I've given Sanders a more than fair look since even 2016 and I was more for Sanders then. Now? No goddamn way.
 
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HeresJohnny

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All one has to do is go to Bernisanders.com to see all the pie-in-the-sky pipe dreams of a list that he would like to do. I've given Sanders a more than fair look since even 2016 and I was more for Sanders then. Now? No goddamn way.
Wow, you're right. I had looked up his M4A stuff, and that was bad enough, but the rest of it is just LOL-worthy. None of this shit will ever pass congress, be it democrat or republican controlled. It reminds me of the lists I used to write Santa when I was a kid that had like 742 toys on them, even though I knew I was getting like 5 or 6. This list is longer and way shittier and it isn't written to Santa, but Karl Marx.
 
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Wow, you're right. I had looked up his M4A stuff, and that was bad enough, but the rest of it is just LOL-worthy. None of this shit will ever pass congress, be it democrat or republican controlled. It reminds me of the lists I used to write Santa when I was a kid that had like 742 toys on them, even though I knew I was getting like 5 or 6. This list is longer and way shittier and it isn't written to Santa, but Karl Marx.
Yeah 90% of what he wants to do won't get done overnight and most of it probably not even in 1 term. That's just looking at the small picture though. The point is the entire country will be pushed more to the left under Sanders, and eventually we will get M4A and many of these other ideas that many see as unattainable right now. The youth are already all about socialism so it's only a matter of time.

Even 2016 vs now there's been quite a shift. He was getting laughed at for many of his "pie in the sky" ideas then, and of course some still do now...but it's at least more of a nervous laughter by this point. Give it a couple years under Sanders and nobody will be laughing about any of it. People are sheep for better or worse, and once the majority see that things could be better, they will demand it be so.

Even if he did serve a term and only gets like 5 or 6 things out of 742, well we'll be better off than we are right now.
 
Mar 18, 2018
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How absurdely pedantic to ask for the context of a single-sentence excerpt of what obviously is a larger discussion.
“He said thing, I didn’t like he said thing, must be a farce to make me believe he said thing. Must deflect.” Me paraphrasing you.
 

Caffeine

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i think the blues are too split, most blues are moderates they will vote for who ever the dnc will nominate in which will most likely be a moderate. a lot of people already said they wont vote if their favorite candidate isnt picked you can see it across sites like reddit. bunch of bernie bros will take away votes from said moderate in a large percentage. and then u have a relection for the president who has a big majority of red and independent voters.
 

Yoshi

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“He said thing, I didn’t like he said thing, must be a farce to make me believe he said thing. Must deflect.” Me paraphrasing you.
You reducing to absurdity. Thanks for the valuable input as usual. Reducing "thing that is unusual for him to say because he focusses on class so much" to "thing that I do not like" is telling me all about you as a poster that I need to know.
 

Yoshi

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Yoshi Yoshi you seem bitter. Go back to the days of constantly making excuses for ERA, it was more entertaining.
I do not care about Era excuses, but I have had enough of the frequent "I take a post or situation, reduce it to the reading of a six-year-old and make a herp-derp comment" postings. They are wasting my time, have no value and shit into my notifications. If you have nothing of value to add to a week old posting then maybe do not add your diarrhea instead (not talking about you specifically)?
 

DunDunDunpachi

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I do not care about Era excuses, but I have had enough of the frequent "I take a post or situation, reduce it to the reading of a six-year-old and make a herp-derp comment" postings. They are wasting my time, have no value and shit into my notifications. If you have nothing of value to add to a week old posting then maybe do not add your diarrhea instead (not talking about you specifically)?
You don't like your own tactics being used against you?

Lighten up, Punished Yoshi, or bring better arguments to the table.

 
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Yoshi

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You don't like your own tactics being used against you?

Lighten up, Punished Yoshi, or bring better arguments to the table.

I was not arguing anything, I was just surprised he said something, because I deem it unnatural for him. Not because I did not like it (it's not like Sanders is my hero or anything, he is just a pretty good social democratic politician, of which the US does not have many, but Europe does), but because it went against one of his core talking points.

Also, I very rarely make impersonation comment postings (would have said never, but I am not entirely sure I never did it; I have a very low opinion of such postings though in general).
 
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Cucked SoyBoy

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Democrats only win elections because they promise "free everything!" in order to win the primary, then try to come off as sober, fiscally responsible adults in the general. Thanks to the internet, everything they say is now preserved and searchable by everyone.

Morons like Klob, Warren, and Biden are still trying to execute the same old bait-and-switch play, not realizing times have changed, and technology reveals all of their lies. Bootygag is an empty suit and black voters aren't too fond of gays so he's toast. Sanders is crazy enough to promise "free everything!" in both the primary AND the general so he's toast. Bloomberg is 5'4", enough said about that.

Unless the economy crashes hard due to the Wuhan virus or Fed manipulations or whatever, Trump is unbeatable this year.
 
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HeresJohnny

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Yeah 90% of what he wants to do won't get done overnight and most of it probably not even in 1 term. That's just looking at the small picture though. The point is the entire country will be pushed more to the left under Sanders, and eventually we will get M4A and many of these other ideas that many see as unattainable right now. The youth are already all about socialism so it's only a matter of time.

Even 2016 vs now there's been quite a shift. He was getting laughed at for many of his "pie in the sky" ideas then, and of course some still do now...but it's at least more of a nervous laughter by this point. Give it a couple years under Sanders and nobody will be laughing about any of it. People are sheep for better or worse, and once the majority see that things could be better, they will demand it be so.

Even if he did serve a term and only gets like 5 or 6 things out of 742, well we'll be better off than we are right now.
How so? I've done the math on his own website and I'll be bringing home $6 grand less a year, and that's just when you take into account his M4A idea -- it doesn't get into free tuition, Green New Deal, etc. And that's really the dilemma: how are you going to tell people like me we'll be better off when we are losing thousands of dollars a year? Those two statements don't play well together. I seriously doubt any candidate can raise taxes on the middle class and still remain viable, but we'll see. Trump doesn't even need to debate Sanders, he can just list how much more everyone will be paying under a Sanders presidency and he's fucked.
 
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Madonis

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Yeah 90% of what he wants to do won't get done overnight and most of it probably not even in 1 term. That's just looking at the small picture though. The point is the entire country will be pushed more to the left under Sanders, and eventually we will get M4A and many of these other ideas that many see as unattainable right now. The youth are already all about socialism so it's only a matter of time.

Even 2016 vs now there's been quite a shift. He was getting laughed at for many of his "pie in the sky" ideas then, and of course some still do now...but it's at least more of a nervous laughter by this point. Give it a couple years under Sanders and nobody will be laughing about any of it. People are sheep for better or worse, and once the majority see that things could be better, they will demand it be so.

Even if he did serve a term and only gets like 5 or 6 things out of 742, well we'll be better off than we are right now.
Even AOC knows that M4A, strictly speaking, is unlikely to pass.


As mentioned above, it's far more likely to see a compromise based on a public option and a few other changes. The thing is, people believe a Sanders administration will fight as hard as possible for them, rather than giving up right out of the gate, so the eventual compromise will be seen as more legitimate after a genuine effort. That's the impression. Whether it comes true or not, that's another matter.

How so? I've done the math on his own website and I'll be bringing home $6 grand less a year, and that's just when you take into account his M4A idea -- it doesn't get into free tuition, Green New Deal, etc. And that's really the dilemma: how are you going to tell people like me we'll be better off when we are losing thousands of dollars a year? Those two statements don't play well together. I seriously doubt any candidate can raise taxes on the middle class and still remain viable, but we'll see. Trump doesn't even need to debate Sanders, he can just list how much more everyone will be paying under a Sanders presidency and he's fucked.
I don't know about your income bracket, but if the majority of the population ends up paying less, the argument would be that the needs of the many outweigh those of the few.

Furthermore, it's possible even someone in your position might save money during a medical emergency, as opposed to compared to periods when you don't need to use the system.

Again, it's likely that M4A wouldn't be approved "as is" either way.
 

HeresJohnny

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Even AOC knows that M4A, strictly speaking, is unlikely to pass.


As mentioned above, it's far more likely to see a compromise based on a public option and a few other changes. The thing is, people believe a Sanders administration will fight as hard as possible for them, rather than giving up right out of the gate, so the eventual compromise will be seen as more legitimate after a genuine effort. That's the impression. Whether it comes true or not, that's another matter.



I don't know about your income bracket, but if the majority of the population ends up paying less, the argument would be that the needs of the many outweigh those of the few.

Furthermore, it's possible even someone in your position might save money during a medical emergency, as opposed to compared to periods when you don't need to use the system.

Again, it's likely that M4A wouldn't be approved "as is" either way.
None of those are winning points in a general election. On top of that, the Democrats already have a history of promising big things on healthcare only to fuck it up. How eager do you suppose the public is for the government to take over healthcare entirely with the track record it has?
 

Madonis

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None of those are winning points in a general election. On top of that, the Democrats already have a history of promising big things on healthcare only to fuck it up. How eager do you suppose the public is for the government to take over healthcare entirely with the track record it has?
Question is, will the electorate believe the promises made by Bernie Sanders over the promises already made by Donald Trump?

Trump promised he would provide the best healthcare, that he would protect everyone, more coverage, etc. and...that's not what the failed GOP plan was going to do. The electorate also didn't believe Republicans had the best healthcare-related proposals back in 2018 so, barring a totally different GOP approach, it's plausible they won't believe otherwise during 2020 either.

Pragmatically, I believe that's why the resulting outcome won't be the government taking over all health insurance. It'll be much closer to adding a public option that you can select (or not).
 
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HeresJohnny

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Question is, will the electorate believe the promises made by Bernie Sanders over the promises already made by Donald Trump?

Trump promised he would provide the best healthcare, that he would protect everyone, more coverage, etc. and...that's not what the failed GOP plan was going to do. The electorate also didn't believe Republicans had the best healthcare-related proposals back in 2018 so, barring a totally different GOP approach, it's plausible they won't believe otherwise during 2020 either.

Pragmatically, I believe that's why the resulting outcome won't be the government taking over all health insurance. It'll be much closer to adding a public option that you can select (or not).
I believe they’ll believe Sanders and that exactly why you’ll lose in the general. No one believes Sanders isn’t genuine. But that doesn’t make his policies any less genuinely bad either

“We (probably) won’t fuck up your healthcare” is still not a winning message. And when you couple that with the rest of Sanders’ policies, it’s literally impossible to pay for them without taxes going up. You are going to have to run on a platform of raising taxes, and it’s going to lose.
 
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